Ninth Circuit Panel Sends California “Assault Weapons” Ban Challenge Back to District Court,

That’s today’s order from Judges Andrew Hurwitz, Daniel Bress, and Patrick Bumatay:

The district court’s judgment is vacated, and this case is remanded to the district court for further proceedings consistent with the United States Supreme Court’s decision in New York State Rifle & Pistol Ass’n, Inc. v. Bruen, 597 U.S. ____ (2022).

The parties shall bear their own attorney’s fees, costs, and expenses. This order constitutes the mandate of this court.

VACATED AND REMANDED.

Pretty standard procedure, when a new court decision clearly changes the legal landscape—and the landscape has sharply changed, given that the lower court decision upheld the ban under so-called “intermediate scrutiny,” and the Court in Bruen rejected that sort of approach (for all gun regulations, not just gun carry regulations). The Ninth Circuit panel could have just applied Bruen instead, but it didn’t have to, and often panels do leave the matter for the court to reconsider in the first instance.

One question for the district judge on remand, of course, would be whether so-called “assault weapons” are indeed “dangerous and unusual,” or whether they are instead in sufficiently “common use” that they aren’t unusual (though, like all guns, they are dangerous). Another question might be—the matter is unclear—whether such bans might be upheld on the theory that they don’t impose a material “burden on the right of armed self-defense” or “prevent ‘law-abiding, responsible citizens’ from exercising their Second Amendment right to public carry [and to private gun possession.” Hard to tell for certain what the result will be, and of course once the district court reconsiders the case, it will likely go back up to the Ninth Circuit.

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White House Desperate To Make New Oil Deals As Gas Prices Crush Biden

White House Desperate To Make New Oil Deals As Gas Prices Crush Biden

There are two schools of thought when it comes to the stagflation crisis:  Those that think inflation in necessities is part of a deliberate agenda of national sabotage, and those that think the whole disaster is a product of pure stupidity.  There is certainly enough evidence to suggest that the establishment benefits to a degree from prices skyrocketing, but they also face massive risks if the crisis unfolds too quickly.  

A stagflation event is like an avalanche, it’s going to come rushing down the mountain and there’s no slowing it once it gets moving.  Such a crisis can be deliberately created through central bank fiat money printing and hiking interest rates into economic weakness, but are the banks and politicians so foolish as to believe they can control its path of destruction once it starts?  

Oil and gas inflation are a boon for certain global groups and certain ideologies, this is a fact.  The number of media celebrities, politicians and corporate journalists pushing a Green New Deal agenda in the wake of rising prices tells us everything we need to know.  Inflation is a crisis of opportunity, a way to force Americans and much of the world to accept green energy initiatives and carbon controls that they NEVER would have accepted before.   

Hey, if gasoline continues to climb into the $7 – $10 range then the majority of people will not be able to afford it beyond the bare essentials of a work commute and going to the grocery store.  So, why not just embrace carbon taxation schemes against a commodity that you barely use anyway?  

And that’s the trap.  The crisis artificially inflates a bubble in gas prices, and then prices stay high because of green energy initiatives.  Of course, most people also cannot afford an $80,000 Tesla either, so the middle class and the poor are kicked down the ladder and relegated to mass transit, which will, by extension, become more expensive.

There is also the agenda for Universal Basic Income, something we have seen suggested multiple times as a “solution” to inflation.  This week California Governor Gavin Newsom announced a plan to provide “inflation stimulus checks” to CA residents to the tune of $17 billion.  California is one of the most indebted states in the country, with over $130 billion in outstanding debt and $650 billion in unfunded liabilities.  Where are they going to get the money for this kind of program?  In most cases that money ends up being printed from thin air by the Federal Reserve.  

That is to say, California’s governor wants to solve their inflation problem by creating even more inflation.  This insanity is not relegated to CA, there are many political leaders that claim UBI is the magic cure for our economic woes.  If prices go high enough, then maybe the American people can be tricked into accepting UBI as well?  And once people are dependent on the government for their very survival, the chances of them ever defying that government grow slim.   

Oil and gas inflation not only affects prices at the pump, though; it also affects prices on everything else.  Freight rates explode higher causing retail prices to go higher.  Electricity production costs more so your electric bill costs more.  Manufacturing expenses skyrocket so wholesale prices skyrocket.  Everything gets more expensive in a perpetual doom circle, and don’t think that people buying less will make any difference.  When there are multiple triggers for inflation including a decline in the dollar’s buying power as well as supply chain disruptions, a recession might do nothing to stall the inflationary bullet.  

The problem for the establishment is that the public responds very negatively very quickly to threats of poverty.  Biden is barely halfway through his first term and his national approval rating has plunged to 39%, and most of this is due to his terrible handling of the economy.  They can’t reap the benefits of the disaster if the public revolts against them.  

This Catch-22 may be the reason why the Biden Administration has been on a global tour searching for alternative sources for oil imports.  Biden recently announced that he would be releasing record amounts of oil from the strategic oil reserves in order to keep prices from climbing.  This hasn’t worked yet, but maybe this time it will be different?

Sanctions against Russian oil have exacerbated the already existing threat of dollar devaluation.  Only 3% of US oil imports come from Russia, but they make up 25% of European imports.  As Europe seeks out other oil exporters so must Joe Biden, because Europe and the US are both drawing resources from the same shrinking pie.  

Biden has been courting the Saudi’s in the hopes that OPEC will increase production rates (this is not going to happen, at least not in a way that actually brings down prices).  Beyond OPEC, the State Department is even approaching Venezuela in search of black gold.   

The strategic reserves release program is set to end in six months and Europe’s sanctions against Russia are supposed to tighten even more by the end of this year.  This leaves everything to existing exporters.  With inflation rising along with the costs of manpower, a substantial increase in the flow of oil is a pipe dream.  And maybe the establishment already knows that.  Maybe, they are just trying to stall the avalanche until the end of 2022.  Maybe they are trying to get past the next election cycle.  Whatever the reason, Biden and friends are trying to slow the inflation machine down, if only for half a year.  This might just be a “crisis of opportunity” that offers the elites far more pain than promise.  

Tyler Durden
Tue, 06/28/2022 – 17:45

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Fatal Amtrak Crash a Reminder of Congress’ Misaligned Rail Safety Priorities


Rural railroad crossing in front of dirt roads and fields

The latest Amtrak crash near Mendon, Missouri, that left four dead and many more injured contains a tragic lesson about Congress’ misaligned rail safety priorities.

The accident occurred yesterday when an eight-car passenger train traveling from Los Angeles to Chicago derailed at a grade crossing after striking a truck that was obstructing the tracks. Three passengers and the driver of the truck died, and 150 were taken to nearby hospitals.

The grade crossing was “uncontrolled,” meaning that it had no crossing guard arms, warning lights, or other safety features that are typically employed to prevent accidents at road-rail intersections. Accidents at grade crossings are a large portion of rail-related deaths.

According to safety data from the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA), 236 of the 896 rail-related fatalities in 2021 happened at highway grade crossings. Of those, 33 involved Amtrak trains. The vast bulk of the other deaths involved trespassers on railroad property getting struck by trains. There were also 168 suicides by rail in 2021, which the FRA reports separately.

This particular grade crossing has apparently been on the radar of both state officials (who had a plan to install safety improvements) and neighbors. In the wake of yesterday’s accident, one farmer who lives close to the crossing complained to local media about the lack of safety features and the steep climbs that made it hard to see down the tracks.

Despite the frequency of fatal grade-crossing incidents, the major rail safety push over the past decade has been to prevent train-on-train collisions, high-speed derailments, and other exceedingly rare high-casualty events.

In September 2008, a passenger train in California collided with a Union Pacific freight train, killing 25 people and injuring 135.

A month later, Congress passed the Rail Safety Improvement Act that mandated railroads adopt Positive Train Control (PTC), an expensive suite of automation and communications technology that can automatically slow speeding trains down.

A common feature of federal safety legislation is that it adopts a very expensive solution to solving the last, most media-salient incident while ignoring more modest safety improvements that could prevent the more ordinary tragedies that capture less attention.

The PTC mandate was no exception.

It cost railroads an estimated $14 billion (about $2 billion of which was covered by federal grants and loans) over a decade [OK?] to comply with the PTC mandate, which was eventually fulfilled in 2020. The cost-benefit analysis of positive train control has never looked favorable.

The FRA estimated that the technology would provide about $90 million in safety benefits each year while costing $850 million to maintain. An earlier estimate by the agency found that it would have prevented seven fatalities over the course of a decade. (The infrastructure law passed by Congress last year does, to its credit, create a grant program to help pay for much-needed grade crossing removals, which probably should have been prioritized sooner.)

That the money spent on PTC provided little return in terms of safety improvements is only one problem with the mandate. Each dollar that went to the technology was one that couldn’t have been spent on more efficacious safety improvements.

According to local ABC affiliate KMBC, Missouri officials estimated the costs of improving the Mendon crossing at $400,000. So it’s possible it could have been improved long ago but for an expensive PTC mandate.

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Contra Ben Bernanke, The Gold Standard Promotes Economic Stability

Contra Ben Bernanke, The Gold Standard Promotes Economic Stability

Authored by Frank Shostak via The Epoch Times,

Currently the world is on a fiat money standard – a government-issued currency that is not backed by a commodity such as gold.

The fiat standard is the primary cause behind the present economic instability, and is tempted to suggest that a gold standard would reduce instability. The majority of experts however, oppose this idea on the ground that the gold standard is in fact a factor of instability.

For instance, the former Federal Reserve Board chairman Ben Bernanke echoed this opposition in his lecture at the George Washington University on March 20, 2012. According to Bernanke, the gold standard prevents the central bank from engaging in policies aimed at stabilizing the economy on account of sudden shocks. This, in turn, according to Bernanke, could lead to severe economic upheavals:

Since the gold standard determines the money supply, there’s not much scope for the central bank to use monetary policy to stabilize the economy…. Because you had a gold standard which tied the money supply to gold, there was no flexibility for the central bank to lower interest rates in recession or raise interest rates in an inflation.

A great merit of the gold standard is that it prevents authorities from pursuing reckless money pumping. Also, in his speech, Bernanke argued that because of the relatively low growth rate in the supply of gold, this could lead to a general decline in the prices of goods and services, which could seriously damage the economy.

What matters is not the growth rate of money as such but its purchasing power. With an expansion in wealth all other things being equal, the purchasing power of dollars is going to increase and every holder of dollars is going to command more wealth.

Bernanke also argued that another major negative of having the gold standard is that it creates a system of fixed exchange rates between the currencies of countries that are on the gold standard. There is no variability as we have it today, argued Bernanke:

If there are shocks or changes in the money supply in one country and perhaps even a bad set of policies, other countries that are tied to the currency of that country will also experience some of the effects of that.

It seems that Bernanke was arguing in support of the floating currency system. He doesn’t understand that in a free market, money is a commodity, and a dollar or other currencies are not independent entities.

Prior to 1933, the name “dollar” was used to refer to a unit of gold that had a weight of 23.22 grains. Since there are 480 grains in one ounce, this means that the name dollar also stood for 0.04838 ounce of gold. This in turn means that one ounce of gold referred to $20.67. Please note that $20.67 is not the price of one ounce of gold in terms of dollars as Bernanke and other experts are saying. Dollar is just a name for 0.04838 ounce of gold. According to Murray N. Rothbard,

No one prints dollars on the purely free market because there are, in fact, no dollars; there are only commodities, such as wheat, cars, and gold.

Likewise, the names of other currencies stood for a fixed amount of gold. Contrary to Bernanke, in a free market, currencies do not float against each other. They are exchanged in accordance with a fixed definition. For example, if the British pound stands for 0.25 ounces of gold and the dollar stands for 0.048 ounces of gold, then one British pound will be exchanged for around five dollars, as Rothbard showed.

Increases in the Gold Supply Don’t Cause Boom-Bust Cycles

According to Rothbard, increases in the supply of gold do not set boom-bust cycles into motion. For Rothbard the key reason behind boom-bust cycles is the act of embezzlement brought about by the monetary policies of the central bank.

Rothbard believed that the business cycle is unlikely to emerge in a free-market economy where money is gold and there is no central bank. According to Rothbard,

Inflation, in this work, is explicitly defined to exclude increases in the stock of specie. While these increases have such similar effects as raising the prices of goods, they also differ sharply in other effects: (a) simple increases in specie do not constitute an intervention in the free market, penalizing one group and subsidizing another; and (b) they do not lead to the processes of the business cycle. (bold added)

To better explain this point, we begin with a barter economy in which John the miner produces ten ounces of gold. The reason why he mines gold is because there is a market for it. John then exchanges his ten ounces of gold for various goods and services.

Over time, individuals have discovered that gold—being originally useful in making jewelry—is also useful for other uses such as to serve as the medium of the exchange. They now begin to assign a much greater exchange value to gold than before. As a result, John the miner can exchange his ten ounces of gold for more goods and services than before.

Observe that gold is part of the pool of wealth and promotes the individual’s life and well-being. Every time John the miner exchanges gold for goods, he is engaging in an exchange of something for something. He is exchanging wealth for wealth.

Contrast this with the paper receipts that are employed as the medium of exchange. These receipts are issued without the corresponding gold deposited for safekeeping. This sets a platform for consumption without contributing to the pool of wealth.

The printing of receipts unbacked by gold sets the exchange of nothing for something. This in turn sets in motion the process of the diversion of resources from wealth-generating activities to the holders of unbacked receipts. This leads to the so-called economic boom.

Stopping the issuing of unbacked receipts arrests the diversion of resources towards activities that emerged because of unbacked by gold receipts. As a result, non-wealth-generating activities come under pressure—an economic bust emerges.

To clarify this point further, consider counterfeit money generated by a forger. No goods were exchanged to obtain the forged money. (The forger just printed the money hence the counterfeit money emerged out of “thin air.”) Once the forged money is exchanged for goods, this results in nothing being exchanged for something, leading to the channeling of goods from individuals that produced goods to the forger.

Now, a forger by embarking on the purchases of various goods provides in fact support for the production of these goods. Observe that the increase in the production of goods would not emerge in the absence of the counterfeit money. Resources are now directed towards the production of goods that are supported by the counterfeiter.

Once the support for goods emerging on account of counterfeiter activities slows down, or comes to a halt, the demand for these goods also slows down or vanishes. Consequently, the production of these goods slows down or is aborted. Observe that on account of the increase in the money with no backing, an increase in the production of goods emerges. A decline in the money created from nothing results in the decline in the production of these goods. Hence, what we have here is a boom of activities that emerged as a result of money out of “thin air” and their bust because of a decline in the supply of unbacked money.

While increases in the supply of gold (when used as money) are likely to cause fluctuations in economic activity, these fluctuations do not occur because of intervention with the free market. Thus, these fluctuations do not cause the impoverishment of wealth generators. A gold miner (wealth producer) exchanges gold for other useful goods. He does not require empty money to divert wealth to himself.

Summary and Conclusion

Boom-bust cycles are the outcome of central bank policies that are aimed at stabilizing the economy. In the past the alleged instability of economies on the gold standard took place because the authorities were issuing unbacked by gold money thereby undermining the gold standard. Contrary to popular thinking, the gold standard, if not abused by the central bank, does not cause instability.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 06/28/2022 – 17:25

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NYC Mayor Eric Adams “Shocked” To Find Out “Just How Bad” The City Is

NYC Mayor Eric Adams “Shocked” To Find Out “Just How Bad” The City Is

How long has Eric Adams been mayor now? You’d think at some point he would have taken the time to have a tour of his own city, but it looks like that may not have ever been the case – until he rode the subways for 3 hours last week. 

That’s because the Mayor was reportedly “shocked” to learn just “how bad [New York City] is,” according to exclusive comments he made to the New York Post this week. 3 hours on the subway last week was apparently all it took. 

He said he was taken back by the poor “deployment of resources”. “Let me tell you something: When I started looking into this, I was shocked at how bad this place is,” he later commented to the Post

Adams started to get a glimpse at how poorly run the city was when reviewing plans his first week in office, the report says.

“It was probably the third — third or fourth week in January. I spent a lot of time in the office,” he said. “And I started peeling back layers and what it started to unveil to me is how we just had this good shell, but underneath — it’s bad.”

Crime skyrocketed in the final years of deBlasio’s tenure as NYC’s Mayor. As the Post notes, grand larcenies and auto thefts have skyrocketed 50% and 48% and robberies are up about 40%.

Speaking about the NYPD, Adams commented: “We have not utilized this amazing agency and all our skills.”

“You know, they hold onto this one thing,” he said, criticizing his predecessors like Bill deBlasio, for focusing on a sole project instead of improving the city as a whole. “That’s why when people try to say, ‘OK, Eric, you know, what is your one or two things?,’ I’m saying: To fix this mess!”

Adams said his first initiative would be to crack down on rule breaking in the subways and stop homeless people from living in stations. 

You have to start somewhere, we guess…

Tyler Durden
Tue, 06/28/2022 – 17:05

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Dangers Faced by Illegal Migrants are Caused by Immigration Restrictions


Immigration Closed

The recent tragic deaths of some 50 undocumented migrants in a truck in Texas highlight the perils of illegal migration. Republicans such as Texas Gov. Greg Abbott have rushed to blame President Biden’s “open border policies.” The truth is the exact opposite. Most of the dangers of illegal migration arise precisely because it is illegal. If the US actually had an “open border” policy, these 50 people would almost certainly be alive today. They would not have had to rely on shady smugglers to secretly cross into the United States. They could have just done so openly, using conventional modes of transportation.

Today, we readily understand that most of the crime, violence, and other risks of alcohol Prohibition was the result of prohibition itself. Once alcohol sales became legal again, people who wanted to purchase beer or wine didn’t have to rely on Al Capone and other criminals to obtain it, and didn’t face any significant risk of violence or fraud in the process of doing so. And there was no longer a vast illegal market for organized crime to exploit.

Alcohol prohibition created opportunities for criminals and con artists, some of whom did morally reprehensible things as a result. But the greatest share of blame for what happened belongs to the government officials who enacted Prohibition in the first place.  Much the same is true of the War on Drugs – and our current regime of immigration prohibition.

Economist Bryan Caplan, author of the excellent book Open Borders, has a helpful post making the point in greater detail:

I recently finished teaching my Immigration class at the University of Palermo. During the last week, we visited a Catholic charity that helps Sicily’s migrants. The workers seemed like nice people, but they were deeply economically illiterate. They didn’t have a bad word to say about the Italian government, the organization that makes immigration a presumptive crime. Quite the opposite…

Don’t imagine, however, that the charity workers were all-forgiving. They were eager to condemn two sets of allegedly monstrous villains.

First, human smugglers.

Second, farmers who hire illegal workers.

Why? The argument, in both cases, comes down to: Smugglers and farmers make lots of money by treating migrants terribly.

To be clear, I’m the first to admit that illegality partially undermine businesses’ standard incentives to do a good job. Not only are you unable to sue an illegal business for poor behavior. Far more importantly, reputational incentives are less potent in illegal markets. If you run the best grocery store in your area, you’re the talk of the town, and get rich. If you run the best human smuggling operation in your area, word travels softly and slowly – and maybe lands you on the radar of the authorities.

Still, even illegal markets often deliver the goods. Indeed, that is the norm.

The charity workers talked as if human smugglers’ standard procedure was to rob and murder their customers. But if this is so, how did millions of people successfully cross from North Africa to Europe? Furthermore, without illegal employment, what would illegal immigrants do after they arrive?

Yes, some smugglers just take migrants’ money, then vanish. Yes, some farmers promise to pay migrants for work, then stiff them. Normally, however, illegal businesses fulfill their promises.

If you’re already a comfortable legal resident of the First World, you’ll probably be horrified by the content of these promises…. Smugglers charge thousands of Euros to move migrants on rickety boats. Farmers pay two Euros an hour, plus substandard room and board, to migrant workers. When I insisted that, “This is still much better than nothing,” the charity workers were appalled. Migrants aren’t making the best of a bad situation; they’re being “roped-in” by vicious criminals.

To be blunt, I’m right and they’re wrong. Yes, human smugglers charge high prices. Yes, farmers pay low wages. But the reason for these unfavorable market conditions is the oppression of the Italian government. Under open borders, migrants would travel by safe commercial channels – and be free to shop around for their best job option. It is the Italian government that pushes migrants into the shadows. And doing business in the shadows is a great burden. For transport, this means low supply and high fees. For employment, this means low demand and low wages.

What is true of Italian migration restrictions is also true for the United States. Our policies make it nearly impossible for most would-be migrants to enter legally. As a result, people wishing to flee horrific poverty and oppression have little choice but to try to enter illegally, which in turn often requires dealing with smugglers. As in almost any illegal market, some of the participants are likely to be unscrupulous criminals and swindlers (though, as Bryan notes, the majority keep their promises). As in the case of Prohibition, by far the best way to cut back on the role of criminals and swindlers in an illegal market is legalization.

Some advocate addressing the bad behavior of unscrupulous employers by adopting “employer-only” approaches to immigration enforcement. For reasons I summarized here, that is both unjust and likely to cause great harm to migrants, not just their would-be employers. In a November 2020 post, I made the case against the common “I’m for legal immigration” trope against liberalizing immigration restrictions.

Obviously, it is still possible to argue for immigration restrictions based on the theory that governments have an inherent right to exclude people, or that exclusion is needed to prevent some great harm immigration might cause. I don’t try to address such theories here, though I do take them up in detail in my book Free to Move. But if you support large-scale immigration restrictions for such reasons, you have to accept the fact that the resulting prohibition regime will predictably lead to tragedies like the one that just occurred in Texas.  If you want to justify restrictions, nonetheless, you need to show that the benefits achieved are at least great enough to outweigh these awful costs.

 

 

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Taibbi: Taking The Neither Pill

Taibbi: Taking The Neither Pill

Authored by Matt Taibbi via TK News,

Last Thursday, I sat in a studio in Newark for the above interview with Ben Shapiro. It was a wide-ranging and oddly friendly discussion between a former Breitbart staffer and the author of Andrew Breitbart’s mostly infamously obscene obituary, in which the fact that the interview could even happen at all was among the most interesting things about it (more on this on a Callin discussion tomorrow).

Ben and I talked about how it was the political left that years ago was famous for being willing to engage anyone, while the business model of right-wing media was a heated conversation with itself about an always-expanding regimen of enemies, a catastrophic strategy that allowed the Jon Stewarts and not-yet-unfunny Stephen Colberts of the world to win huge audiences by default. Add the lack of a sense of humor, which made Frank Zappa, Larry Flynt, and Dee Snider automatic winners over crusading curmudgeons like Jerry Falwell and John Tower, and the culture war for decades was never a real battle. “There’s no question that the left had been in the ascendancy my entire lifetime,” is how Shapiro put it.

Now the script is flipped. The press mainstream has borrowed from the old Fox model and not only (as Shapiro notes) excludes dissent via the “laundering of expertise” but leads interminable crusades against an exploding list of deviationists within their own ranks. You may have thought you were solidly a progressive, but you can catch a permanent green-room ban for going against narrative on any issue, whether it’s Syria or Ukraine or Russiagate or trans issues or any of a hundred other things. This is the same losing strategy that hurt the old GOP, which logically should lead to the same losing outcome, except this is a political atmosphere where no one seems to be winning.

On Friday, the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, the 1973 decision granting women a constitutional right to abortion. This exact moment was supposedly why I owed my vote to the Democratic Party, and indeed the Supreme Court was on my mind when I pulled a lever for Hillary Clinton, a politician I couldn’t stand, in 2016.

Four years later, I voted neither. The Democrats between 2016 and 2020 not only lost my vote, but reveled in the idea that they didn’t need or want it, denouncing critics in all directions as traitors, white supremacists, and terrorists, no different from the “deplorables” who voted for Donald Trump. In that time they perfected an attitude of imperious condescension and entitlement so grating that at least half of America wouldn’t piss on someone like Adam Schiff if he were on fire. Then Friday happened and it was the same song everywhere: “See! We were right all along! You do owe us! And if you ever criticized us, this was your fault!

No, it wasn’t. Friday was the result of decades spent building a political project so incoherent, unsellable, and untrustworthy to ordinary people that in 2016 they chose Donald Trump over the person Barack Obama called the most qualified candidate in history. The justices who cast the critical votes Friday were picked by a man denounced by all of institutional America prior to election. All those voices were ignored. That total collapse in trust, not Jill Stein’s candidacy or Putin’s Facebook ads, led to Dobbs v. Jackson. Until Democrats reckon with that problem, which incidentally spread to every category of voter except white men in 2020 and looks poised to spread even more in the midterms, there will be more moments like this.

Subscribers to TK News can click here to read more…

Tyler Durden
Tue, 06/28/2022 – 16:45

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Dangers Faced by Illegal Migrants are Caused by Immigration Restrictions


Immigration Closed

The recent tragic deaths of some 50 undocumented migrants in a truck in Texas highlight the perils of illegal migration. Republicans such as Texas Gov. Greg Abbott have rushed to blame President Biden’s “open border policies.” The truth is the exact opposite. Most of the dangers of illegal migration arise precisely because it is illegal. If the US actually had an “open border” policy, these 50 people would almost certainly be alive today. They would not have had to rely on shady smugglers to secretly cross into the United States. They could have just done so openly, using conventional modes of transportation.

Today, we readily understand that most of the crime, violence, and other risks of alcohol Prohibition was the result of prohibition itself. Once alcohol sales became legal again, people who wanted to purchase beer or wine didn’t have to rely on Al Capone and other criminals to obtain it, and didn’t face any significant risk of violence or fraud in the process of doing so. And there was no longer a vast illegal market for organized crime to exploit.

Alcohol prohibition created opportunities for criminals and con artists, some of whom did morally reprehensible things as a result. But the greatest share of blame for what happened belongs to the government officials who enacted Prohibition in the first place.  Much the same is true of the War on Drugs – and our current regime of immigration prohibition.

Economist Bryan Caplan, author of the excellent book Open Borders, has a helpful post making the point in greater detail:

I recently finished teaching my Immigration class at the University of Palermo. During the last week, we visited a Catholic charity that helps Sicily’s migrants. The workers seemed like nice people, but they were deeply economically illiterate. They didn’t have a bad word to say about the Italian government, the organization that makes immigration a presumptive crime. Quite the opposite…

Don’t imagine, however, that the charity workers were all-forgiving. They were eager to condemn two sets of allegedly monstrous villains.

First, human smugglers.

Second, farmers who hire illegal workers.

Why? The argument, in both cases, comes down to: Smugglers and farmers make lots of money by treating migrants terribly.

To be clear, I’m the first to admit that illegality partially undermine businesses’ standard incentives to do a good job. Not only are you unable to sue an illegal business for poor behavior. Far more importantly, reputational incentives are less potent in illegal markets. If you run the best grocery store in your area, you’re the talk of the town, and get rich. If you run the best human smuggling operation in your area, word travels softly and slowly – and maybe lands you on the radar of the authorities.

Still, even illegal markets often deliver the goods. Indeed, that is the norm.

The charity workers talked as if human smugglers’ standard procedure was to rob and murder their customers. But if this is so, how did millions of people successfully cross from North Africa to Europe? Furthermore, without illegal employment, what would illegal immigrants do after they arrive?

Yes, some smugglers just take migrants’ money, then vanish. Yes, some farmers promise to pay migrants for work, then stiff them. Normally, however, illegal businesses fulfill their promises.

If you’re already a comfortable legal resident of the First World, you’ll probably be horrified by the content of these promises…. Smugglers charge thousands of Euros to move migrants on rickety boats. Farmers pay two Euros an hour, plus substandard room and board, to migrant workers. When I insisted that, “This is still much better than nothing,” the charity workers were appalled. Migrants aren’t making the best of a bad situation; they’re being “roped-in” by vicious criminals.

To be blunt, I’m right and they’re wrong. Yes, human smugglers charge high prices. Yes, farmers pay low wages. But the reason for these unfavorable market conditions is the oppression of the Italian government. Under open borders, migrants would travel by safe commercial channels – and be free to shop around for their best job option. It is the Italian government that pushes migrants into the shadows. And doing business in the shadows is a great burden. For transport, this means low supply and high fees. For employment, this means low demand and low wages.

What is true of Italian migration restrictions is also true for the United States. Our policies make it nearly impossible for most would-be migrants to enter legally. As a result, people wishing to flee horrific poverty and oppression have little choice but to try to enter illegally, which in turn often requires dealing with smugglers. As in almost any illegal market, some of the participants are likely to be unscrupulous criminals and swindlers (though, as Bryan notes, the majority keep their promises). As in the case of Prohibition, by far the best way to cut back on the role of criminals and swindlers in an illegal market is legalization.

Some advocate addressing the bad behavior of unscrupulous employers by adopting “employer-only” approaches to immigration enforcement. For reasons I summarized here, that is both unjust and likely to cause great harm to migrants, not just their would-be employers. In a November 2020 post, I made the case against the common “I’m for legal immigration” trope against liberalizing immigration restrictions.

Obviously, it is still possible to argue for immigration restrictions based on the theory that governments have an inherent right to exclude people, or that exclusion is needed to prevent some great harm immigration might cause. I don’t try to address such theories here, though I do take them up in detail in my book Free to Move. But if you support large-scale immigration restrictions for such reasons, you have to accept the fact that the resulting prohibition regime will predictably lead to tragedies like the one that just occurred in Texas.  If you want to justify restrictions, nonetheless, you need to show that the benefits achieved are at least great enough to outweigh these awful costs.

 

 

The post Dangers Faced by Illegal Migrants are Caused by Immigration Restrictions appeared first on Reason.com.

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WTI Extends Gains After Unexpected Crude Draw

WTI Extends Gains After Unexpected Crude Draw

Oil prices are higher today following relatively positive news from China (easing some of its COVID quarantine restrictions), Macron-inspired doubts over the ability of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to significantly boost output, and unrest in Ecuador and Libya helped lift prices.

“We’re in the crunch period, it’s hard to see any meaningful price relief for crude,” said John Kilduff.

There’s a lot of strength with China relaxing its Covid restrictions and starting its independent refiners, “we’re going to have another chunk of demand for crude oil,” as China relaxes its Covid-19 restrictions.

With no EIA data released last week due to a “systems issue” (they have issued a statement confirming that the data – and the newest data – will both be released tomorrow), the only guidance we have for now on the past week’s inventory changes is from API

API (last week)

  • Crude +5.607mm

  • Cushing -390k

  • Gasoline +1.216mm – first build since March

  • Distillates -1.656mm

API (this week)

  • Crude -3.799mm

  • Cushing -650k

  • Gasoline +2.852mm

  • Distillates +2.613mm

Crude stocks unexpectedly fell last week, almost erasing the major build from the week before (according to API). Gasoline stocks rose for the second straight week

Source: Bloomberg

WTI was hovering around $111.75 and pushed up to $112 after the unexpected crude draw…

Finally, we note that the tight supply situation in oil (especially European) is revealing itself in the WTI-Brent spread, grew to $6.19, the widest in almost three months.

“European demand will remain robust, especially as natural gas supplies run out, while the North American demand for crude is weakening,” said Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda.

This is not good news for President Biden as prices are rising…

And his ratings are hitting record lows.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 06/28/2022 – 16:37

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3AL2FPp Tyler Durden

The End of Roe Is Republicans’ Latest Excuse for Growing the Size and Cost of Government


A family with parents and children sitting at a picnic outside

The end of Roe v. Wade, pro-lifers have said since the Supreme Court overturned the longstanding abortion ruling on Friday, must be the beginning of a new era of generosity toward parents in America. For many, that undoubtedly means individual or church-organized care, but for some, it includes an embrace of federal family policy. This is not the first time there’s been a conservative push for “pro-family” reform, but the movement seems to have more wind in its sails than in years past.

“The end of Roe will require a new type of politics,” argued Patrick T. Brown of the conservative Ethics and Public Policy Center in The New York Times last month, pointing specifically to a plan by Republican Sens. Marco Rubio (Fla.) and Mitt Romney (Utah) as an example of the envisioned agenda.

That plan, which Rubio has been promoting since the Dobbs decision dropped, includes an expanded Child Tax Credit, more funding for several social programs, and, as its flagship, an unusual parental leave program. The gist of the leave idea is that parents could choose to receive up to 12 weeks of paid leave after birth or adoption by drawing early Social Security benefits. Several decades down the line, to compensate, they’d choose to either delay retirement by the same number of weeks or receive reduced payments for five years. Participation would be voluntary and available to at least some stay-at-home parents. And because Social Security payments are progressive, benefits would be proportionately higher for lower-income families who can least afford to take leave without pay.

It’s still unclear if the Rubio-Romney plan will indeed become a GOP priority. And though proponents like Chris Rufo have praised the leave program as “cost neutral,” the package as a whole would be quite costly. Even if the parental leave proposal could succeed as a stand-alone item, most of the other pieces stand no chance of federal passage—not without a new president and congressional majority, anyway. This new politics, if it’s coming, won’t come before 2025.

If this leave plan sounds familiar, that’s because it’s nearly the same proposal as the one touted by Rubio and former first daughter Ivanka Trump in 2018. It didn’t catch on among Republicans then and instead caught flak from the left for “penaliz[ing] parents” instead of committing to a universal family leave plan tied to new taxes on the rich. For Reason, Shikha Dalmia dubbed it “a clever idea that certainly avoids some of the problems with rival parental leave plans” but panned the idea, writing, “it isn’t like Social Security has a ton of spare cash lying around to dole out to people other than retirees.”

Indeed, Social Security is already expected to begin paying reduced benefits in 2034, and early payments for parental leave would have to come from somewhere, perhaps by accelerating that reduction or raising federal taxes or debt. If Social Security is gone or much diminished by the time millennials and younger retire, there may never be any payouts for us to delay or reduce. 

In either scenario, bringing these payments forward arguably isn’t cost-neutral after all. Yet, as a taxpayer of childbearing age who won’t retire before 2034, there’s a real appeal here even if this proposal doesn’t work out exactly as planned. It’s functionally a small tax cut for new parents—a chance to claw back some of the payroll taxes I otherwise expect to never see again. My own Social Security payments will be drastically reduced, if they materialize at all, three or four decades from now whether this parental leave program happens or not. Rubio’s plan would at least let me recoup a little of the thousands upon thousands of dollars I’ve paid for retirement payments I’ll likely never enjoy.

The rest of the Rubio family agenda, such as we know of it (the bill text for the whole package does not seem to have been released), is even more of a mixed bag. Expanding the child tax credit and the adoption tax credit is probably the most politically viable of the bunch, though of course, the credits aren’t offset by any spending cuts. The expanded funding for social programs will be too little (or too religious) to garner most Democrats’ support and too expensive for most Republicans.

Undoubtedly most controversial is Rubio and Romney’s proposal that the federal government fund pro-life pregnancy centers “by reallocating federal funds from organizations that perform or refer women for abortions.” Eliminating federal funding for abortion providers (whether to directly pay for abortions or, because money is fungible, to support these organizations at all) has been a pro-life cause for years on grounds of conscience—but also a source of deep contention. Perhaps inevitably in our era of negative partisanship, Rubio’s proposal would not simply eliminate the funding but invert its political polarization.

Maybe there’s a family policy yet to be crafted that could garner broad support from the American public—or clear the often higher bar of bipartisan backing in Washington. I don’t know what it would be nor, I suspect, does anyone else. But the end of Roe seems to have further spurred demand for a viable family policy, and the Rubio agenda isn’t it.

The post The End of <em>Roe</em> Is Republicans' Latest Excuse for Growing the Size and Cost of Government appeared first on Reason.com.

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