Month: August 2022

Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

Russian Gazprom has officially halted gas supplies to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, cutting off flows completely to Germany for a period of maintenance that began at 01:00 GMT Wednesday and is scheduled to end at 01:00 GMT on Saturday.

Fears are mounting across the European Union that Russia will delay flows beyond September 3rd as the Kremlin continues to use natural gas as a weapon against Western sanctions – an allegation Moscow has repeatedly denied.

Gazprom has said the cutoff would be temporary, as planned, noting that the pipeline would restart after three days “provided that no malfunctions are identified”, as reported by the New York Times.

Once flows are restored in three days, according to Gazprom, it will be 20% of the pipeline’s capacity – the same level of capacity since flows were restored following July’s maintenance.

This is the second time in as many months that Gazprom has halted supplies on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. In July, flows were halted for maintenance for a period of 10 days, but capacity was limited, with Gazprom claiming paperwork delays for a turbine held up by sanctions in Canada, and Europe claiming Moscow was using this move in a game of leverage.

Europe has been scrambling to fill its gas storage ahead of the winter months and is now on track to achieve its goals two months ahead of schedule.

Inventory data from Gas Infrastructure Europe on Sunday showed that the European Union had filled its winter reserves to 79.94%, while it is targeting 80% by the first of November, according to Business Insider.

The European Union is closer to potentially intervening in the bloc’s electricity market as energy prices soar ahead of what would be a difficult winter for EU consumers and businesses.

Earlier this week, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the bloc was working out an emergency plan for intervening in energy markets, saying that soaring electricity prices were “exposing, for different reasons, the limitations of our current electricity market design”.

“We need a new market model for electricity that really functions and brings us back into balance,” the EC president said.  

Update: Following the SEC filing to sell more shares, Bed Bath & Beyond released a statement about its strategic and business update that will result in store closures and a reduction of its workforce. The home-goods retailer also announced new financing commitments. 

Bed Bath & Beyond will close approximately 150 lower-producing banner stores. It will also be exiting a third of its Owned Brands by discontinuing three of its nine labels (Haven, Wild Sage, and Studio 3B). 

Another cost-cutting measure will be the reduction of 20% of its workforce. 

The company also announced it had secured financing commitments of more than 500 million in new financing, including a newly expanded $1.13 billion asset-backed revolving credit facility and a new $375 million “first-in-last-out” facility. 

Shares extended declines on the second part of the news following the S-3 shelf filing earlier this morning. Shares are down more than -22%. 

Activist investor Ryan Cohen unloaded his shares just before all of this news — how much of his decision to exit the ‘meme stock’ was based on what was coming down the pipe?

* * * 

Bed Bath & Beyond shares plunged premarket Wednesday as retailer traders who piled into the ‘meme stock’ were greeted with an unwelcoming SEC filing by the home-goods retailer to sell shares of its common stock. 

“We may offer, issue and sell shares of our common stock from time to time,” the form S-3 shelf filing read. 

Under the “Use Of Proceeds” section of the filing, the company said it would “use net proceeds from any sale of the securities described in this prospectus for our general corporate purposes, which may include repayment of our indebtedness, future repurchases of our common stock and financing possible acquisitions.” 

Shares in the meme stock plunged as much as 21% as of 0715 ET on fears stock sales would drown the equity. 

It’s been a rollercoaster of a ride for traders after the stock jumped from a low of $5 at the beginning of August to an intraday high of $30 by mid-month. The stock has since round-tripped after activist investor Ryan Cohen dumped his stake and worries over company finances. 

30-day volatility in the stock surged to a record high this month on the wild swings. 

More than 2 billion shares have changed hands in recent weeks as retail traders flooded into a company with cash burn issues. 

After three days of steep declines, S&P futures traded between modest gains and losses as global markets headed for the third consecutive weekly decline and another monthly drop on concerns that aggressive central bank tightening will push the global economy into a hard recession. At 7:15am ET, futures were up 0.2% and Nasdaq futures rose 0.7%, after trading both higher and lower earlier in the session. The dollar rose, Treasury yields jumped after another record CPI print in Europe, while the bizarre oil slump extended.

In premarket trading, Bed Bath& Beyond plunged after the home-goods retailer filed a form to sell an unspecified number of shares.
HP also fell 6.8% after the company reported quarterly sales that missed estimates and cut its annual profit forecast as demand for personal computers and printers slowed. Analysts noted that the PC maker will need a couple of quarters to correct its inventory. Here are other notable premarket movers:

• Robinhood (HOOD US) falls 2.3% as Barclays cut its rating to underweight from equal weight
• ChargePoint (CHPT US) shares rose as much as 2.1% in US premarket trading, after the electric vehicle charging network operator’s second-quarter revenue came in ahead of estimates, with analysts positive on the company’s gross margin performance amid supply-chain woes
• HP Enterprise (HPE US) narrowed its full-year adjusted earnings per share forecast and reported in-line revenue for the third quarter. Analysts were bracing for the worst, after Dell’s disappointing outlook last week. Shares fall 1% in premarket trading
• PayPal shares rise 2.9% in premarket trading after Bank of America upgraded its rating on the payments stock to buy from neutral previously
• Morgan Stanley resumes coverage of Welltower (WELL US) at overweight and a $90 PT with the broker bullish on a recovery for the US senior housing market

“What’s clear is that predicting this market is not clean cut,” Angeline Newman, a managing director at UBS Global Wealth Management, said on Bloomberg Television. “We are living in a world where conflicting economic signals are making the path of monetary policy very difficult to determine.”

Market bets on a shallower trajectory for Federal Reserve tightening are receding, raising the prospect of more losses for stocks and bonds in an already difficult year. Investors are scouring incoming data for clues on the policy path, with August US jobs figures on Friday the next key report.

European shares reversed earlier gains to trade at the lowest level in more than six weeks, after Euro-area inflation accelerated to another all-time high, strengthening the case for the European Central Bank to consider a jumbo interest-rate hike when it meets next week. ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel urged a “strong” reaction, hinting at a 75bps hike just as Europe braces for an energy disaster with winter coming. Paradoxically this pushed the EUR to session lows.

In Europe, the Stoxx 50 fell 0.7%, with the FTSE 100 lagging, dropping 1%. Energy and autos slump while utilities is the worst-performing sub-index in the European gauge on Wednesday, extending their selloff to a fourth session as investors fret over Russian gas supplies at the start of a three-day halt of the key Nord Stream pipeline. Slump is lead by Drax (-4.3%), National Grid (-4%), Italy’s Terna (-2.3%), Germany’s Uniper (-4%) and Fortum (-3%). Some renewables also take a hit, including Orsted (-2.4%) and Verbund (-1.4%). Citi says utilities had to put up more than EUR100b of additional collateral versus 2020 levels because of record levels of future power and gas prices. Here are the biggest European movers:

• ASML rises as much as 3.4%. It is among the “most attractive names” in the current uncertain macro environment, UBS says in a note upgrading the semiconductor-equipment company to buy from neutral.
• Stadler Rail shares climb as much as 6% after reporting mixed results, with 1H sales beating estimates and a strong order intake, offset by more cautious comments on margins and a negative currency impact, according to analysts.
• CFE shares surge as much as 23% after the Belgian construction and development company’s 1H results, with Degroof raising its estimates.
• Ackermans & van Haaren rises as much as 7.5% after KBC upgrades its rating on the industrial holding company to buy from hold following first-half results, which the broker describes as “resilient” in tough times.
• Lundbergforetagen shares rise as much as 5.5%, the most since May, after DNB reiterated its buy recommendation for the Swedish real estate investment firm, while trimming its PT to SEK485 from SEK530.
• Utilities are among the worst-performing sub-index in the European gauge on Wednesday, extending their selloff to a fourth session as investors fret over Russian gas supplies at the start of a three-day halt of the key Nord Stream pipeline.
• European energy stocks underperform for a second day after oil erased initial gains on Wednesday to head for a third monthly decline as rate hikes by major central banks and China’s Covid Zero strategy increase the likelihood of a global economic slowdown.
• Brunello Cucinelli shares fall as much as 7.2% after the Italian luxury fashion company reported 1H results; Deutsche Bank says the update is “largely as expected” with guidance appearing “relatively conservative.”

Europe’s weakness was sparked by the ongoing rout in oil, which headed for a third monthly drop – the longest losing run in more than two years – hampered by the likelihood of slower global growth, yet which as Goldman says is now the best asset to own having priced in a recession more than any other asset class. European natural gas advanced after a two-day slump, with traders weighing risks to Russian supplies against the continent’s drastic efforts to curb the energy crisis.

Earlier in the session, Asian equities climbed in a mixed day that saw tech shares advance but Japan’s bourses retreat as traders digested China’s weak economic data while technology stocks rebounded. BYD Co. plunged in Hong Kong after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. trimmed its stake in the electric vehicle maker. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index erased an earlier loss to trade up as much as 0.6%. Chinese benchmarks underperformed the region after factory activity contracted on power shortages spurred by a historic drought. Stocks were also weak in Hong Kong as Warren Buffett’s sale of shares in BYD Co. fueled general risk-off sentiment, countered by advances in the city’s tech shares. Traders also weighed US job and consumer confidence numbers, which were seen backing the Federal Reserve’s rate-hike plans.

“The dented risk sentiment from tighter-for-longer central bank policies is likely to weigh on sentiment in the region,” Jun Rong Yeap, a market strategist at IG Asia Pte, wrote in a note. He added that further headwinds including Covid lockdowns may weigh on Chinese equities. Taiwanese stocks rose, even amid a potential escalation of cross-strait tensions, while South Korean shares also advanced on gains in tech names. Indian and Malaysian markets were closed for holidays.

Investors are also contending with mounting friction between Beijing and Taipei after Taiwanese soldiers fired shots to ward off civilian drones and evaluating the latest Chinese data, which indicated factory activity shrank for a second month. Power shortages, a property sector crisis and Covid outbreaks all took a toll.

In Japan, stock dropped amid concerns over the potential for Federal Reserve tightening and data that showed weak factory activity in China.  The Topix fell 0.3% to 1,963.16 as of the market close Tokyo time, while the Nikkei 225 declined 0.4% to 28,091.53. Sony Group Corp. contributed the most to the Topix’s decline, decreasing 1.7%. Out of 2,169 stocks in the index, 683 rose and 1,381 fell, while 105 were unchanged. “US stocks, which plummeted on the Jackson Hole meeting last week, have fallen further and Japan stocks are matching that,” said Kiyoshi Ishigane, a chief fund manager at Mitsubishi UFJ Kokusai Asset Management.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.2% to close at at 6,986.80, weighed by losses in mining and energy shares.  Asia-Pacific energy-related stocks fell as oil headed for its third straight monthly decline, the longest losing run in more than two years, on prospects for slower global growth. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.4% to 11,601.10

In FX, the Bloomberg dollar spot index rose again, up 0.2%, as it reversed a loss as the greenback rebounded, with most Group-of-10 peers swinging to a loss in the European session. AUD and JPY are the strongest performers in G-10 FX, NOK and CHF underperform. The euro fell to a session low of $0.9974 as euro-area inflation accelerated to another all-time high of 9.1% from a year ago, exceeding the 9% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. Norway’s krone plunged by 1% against the euro and even more versus the dollar after news that the nation’s central bank will ramp up its purchases of foreign currency to 3.5 billion kroner ($350 million) a day in September from 1.5 billion in August as it deposits energy revenue into the $1.2 trillion sovereign wealth fund. The pound neared the lowest since March 2020 against the greenback that was touched yesterday, yet options suggest a short-squeeze could be due. The Australian and New Zealand dollars held up well amid month-end demand after earlier gains in US stock futures following China PMI data. The yen was steady. Board member Junko Nakagawa said that the Bank of Japan’s forward guidance for interest rates isn’t necessarily directly linked with its Covid funding program.

In rates, Treasuries are off session lows as US trading gets under way Wednesday, selloff paced by gilts with UK yields higher by 9bp-13bp. US 2Y barely exceeded Tuesday’s multiyear high. US yields are higher by 3bp-5bp, 2- year rose as much as 5.3bp to 3.275%, Treasury 10-year yield adds 4bps to around 3.14%.  Curve spreads are little changed, inverted 5s30s around -5.7bp, near lowest level since mid June; month-end index rebalancing at 4pm New York time will extend the duration of Bloomberg Treasury index by an estimated 0.12 year. European bonds slide across the curve, led by gilts, after hotter-than-expected euro-area inflation data. Gilts 10-year yield is up 11 bps to 2.82%, while German 10-year yield rises 3.6bps to 1.55%. Peripheral spreads widen to Germany with 10y BTP/Bund adding 2.2bps to 233.4bps.

Bitcoin has managed to reclaim USD 20k after slipping to a USD 19.7k low, overall the crypto remains in fairly tight sub-1k parameters.

In commodities, crude futures extend declines. WTI drifts 2.6% lower to trade near $89, while Brent falls 3% to the $96 level. Base metals are mixed; LME tin falls 2.5% while LME nickel gains 1.4%. Spot gold falls roughly $10 to trade near $1,714/oz. Spot silver loses 1.5% near $18.

Looking to the day ahead now, data releases include the flash CPI reading for the Euro Area in August, as well as the country readings for France and Italy. On top of that, there’s the ADP’s new report of private payrolls for August and the MNI Chicago PMI for August. Finally, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Mester and Bostic.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures little changed at 3,986.25
• STOXX Europe 600 down 0.6% to 417.39
• MXAP up 0.2% to 158.39
• MXAPJ up 0.3% to 519.46
• Nikkei down 0.4% to 28,091.53
• Topix down 0.3% to 1,963.16
• Hang Seng Index little changed at 19,954.39
• Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 3,202.14
• Sensex up 2.7% to 59,537.07
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 6,986.76
• Kospi up 0.9% to 2,472.05
• German 10Y yield little changed at 1.54%
• Euro down 0.1% to $1.0003
• Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,715.78
• U.S. Dollar Index up 0.14% to 108.92

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

• Forget about a soft landing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is now aiming for something much more painful for the economy to put an end to elevated inflation. The trouble is, even that may not be enough. It’s known to economists by the paradoxical name of a “growth recession.”
• France said the nation’s natural gas storage will be full in about two weeks, enabling the country to ride out the coming winter even as Russia turns the screw on deliveries of the fuel
• UK statisticians decided that a £400 ($466) government grant to help households with energy won’t lower headline inflation numbers, a move that will protect the returns of some bond holders but increase payments made by both the Treasury and consumers
• Sweden’s Riksbank hopes to be able to avoid a recession as it is prepared to do what is necessary to bring soaring inflation back to the central bank’s 2% target, deputy governor Anna Breman said
• The People’s Bank of China set stronger-than-expected yuan fixings for six sessions to Wednesday and people familiar with the matter said at least two local banks pushed back against the weakness when submitting data for the reference rate. Traders still expect it to weaken past the psychological 7 per dollar level, even if the moves slowed the decline
• China’s retail activity flatlined in August with e-commerce demand especially weak, according to satellite data, suggesting that consumer caution due to the ongoing Covid Zero policy and elevated unemployment remain major drags on the world’s second-largest economy
• Russia’s seaborne crude shipments to Asia have fallen by more than 500,000 barrels a day in the past three months, with flows to the region hitting their lowest levels since late March

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pacific stocks were mostly negative following the losses across global counterparts owing to recent hawkish central bank rhetoric and with geopolitical concerns stoked after Taiwan fired warning shots at a Chinese drone. ASX 200 was subdued by weakness in commodity-related stocks with the energy sector the worst hit after the recent slump in oil prices, while a surprise contraction in Construction Work added to the headwinds and feeds into next week’s GDP release. Nikkei 225 declined but held above 28k after encouraging Industrial Production and Retail Sales. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured amid a heavy slate of earnings releases and with US regulators said to have selected a number of US-listed Chinese companies for audit inspections including Alibaba, while participants also reacted to the Chinese PMI data in which the headline Manufacturing PMI topped estimates but remained in contraction territory.

Top Asian News

• Japanese PM Kishida said he has fully recovered from COVID-19 and returned to normal duty. Kishida added that they will begin administering Omicron variant targeted vaccines earlier than planned, while he announced to increase the daily upper limit of entrants to Japan to 50k on September 7th and will look into further loosening of border controls.
• South Korean vice-Finance Minister says they received “positive signs” during talks with FTSE Russell, FX environment has not emerged as a hurdle in discussions. Possibility is high for S. Korea’s inclusion to the FTSE’s WGBI watch-list in September
• Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 49.4 vs. Exp. 49.2 (Prev. 49.0); Non-Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 52.6 vs Exp. 52.2 (Prev. 53.8) Chinese Composite PMI (Aug) 51.7 (Prev. 52.5)
• Japanese Industrial Production Prelim. (Jul P) 1.0% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 9.2%); Retail Sales YY (Jul) 2.4% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 1.5%)
• Australian Construction Work Done (Q2) -3.8% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. -0.9%)

Initial upside in Europe faded as broader price action took another hawkish turn amid inflation data, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.0%. Stateside, futures are mixed around the unchanged mark, ES -0.2%, though are similarly well off best levels with data and Fed speak due.

Top European News

• UK’s ONS rules that energy bill rebate does not directly affect inflation statistics directly; “concluded that payments under the scheme should be classified as a current transfer paid by central government to the households sector.” i.e. the payment is being treated as a fiscal transfer as opposed to a price adjustment.
• UK government could reportedly fast-track nuclear power projects to help ease the energy crisis, according to The Telegraph.
• UK government is considering caps on rent to protect social housing tenants as part of a wider effort to ease the soaring costs of living, according to FT.
• Former UK Chancellor Sunak warned that Foreign Secretary Truss’s campaign promises could increase inflation and borrowing costs, according to FT.
• German Economy Minister Habeck said they would reject the idea of ‘capping’ energy prices; Finance Minister Lindner says the hurdle to an excess profit tax is high (re. energy); Chancellor Scholz says the early steps on energy means we will get through the winter period, will take measures to ensure energy prices “do not go through the roof”.

FX

• A session of gains for the DXY with upside spurred by haven bids, as the broader market sentiment deteriorated shortly after the European cash open.
• EUR/USD sits as one of the laggards with minimal immediate reaction seen in wake of hotter-than-expected August flash CPI for the EZ, although the upside for the pair may be capped by Nord Stream 1 jitters.
• The antipodeans are mixed as AUD leads the gains as the outperforming G10 peer on the back of better-than-expected Chinese official PMI metrics; Petro-currencies are softer as the slide in crude oil resumes.
• The JPY remains somewhat resilient in the face of the USD strength, likely amid the risk aversion across the market.

Fixed Income

• Core benchmarks experienced a fairly contained start to the session, though this proved to be shortlived and pronounced action occurred on inflation release.
• Bunds remain sub-147.50, though off worst, as initial French-CPI induced upside was reversed following hot Italian and subsequent EZ-wide Flash August HICP; market pricing for 75bp remains just above 50%.
• Gilts are the standout laggard as on the ONS treats the Energy Support as a fiscal transfer, thus Ofgem Energy adj. will be fully reflecting in CPI; Gilts sub-130 ticks in wake.
• USTs are directionally downbeat but comparably contained in terms of magnitudes, ADP and Fed’s Bostic/Mester due.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent futures resumed selling off in tandem with the broader risk-mood.
• Dutch TTF futures are on a firmer footing today following yesterday’s near-10% slump.
• Spot gold is pressured by the firmer Dollar and approaches USD 1,700/oz to the downside.
• 3M LME copper has been extending on gains with a boost from the above-forecast Chinese PMI metrics, but the contract remains under USD 8,000/t.
• OPEC+ JTC upgrades 2022 oil market surplus forecast by 100k BPD to 900k BPD, according to a report via Reuters; sees market surplus rising to 1.4mln BPD in November from 0.6mln BPD in October.
• OPEC+ JTC report says rising energy costs “may lead to a more significant reduction in consumptions towards year-end”, via Reuters.
• US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +0.6mln (exp. -1.5mln), Cushing -0.6mln, Gasoline -3.4mln (exp. -1.2mln), Distillates -1.7mln (exp. -1.0mln).
• Oman crude OSP calculated at USD 97.00bbl for October vs. USD 103.21bbl in September, according to DME data.

Central Banks

• BoJ’s Nakagawa says the central bank decided to maintain easy policy bias in July, and hopes to discuss at the September meeting whether it should continue doing so based on data. Must remain vigilant to downward economic pressure from pandemic.
• BoJ is to conduct fixed-rate purchase operations for the cheapest-to-deliver 357th JGB notes for an extended period of time as of September 1st.
• ECB’s Rehn says the economic outlook has darkened, normalisation of monetary policy progressing consistently. Rates will increase in September, will be necessary to hike further at future gatherings.
• Riksbank’s Bremen says it is of the utmost importance to defend the inflation target as anchor for price setting and wage formation; adds inflation is too high. Inflation outcomes have been higher than expected recently, inflation risks are on the upside. Does not rule out a 50bps or 75bps hike at the 20th September meeting.
• Norges Bank Currency Purchases (Sep) NOK 3.5bln (prev. NOK 1.5bln)

US Event Calendar

• 07:00: Aug. MBA Mortgage Applications -3.7%, prior -1.2%
• 08:15: ADP resumes publication of jobs report with new methodology
• 08:15: Aug. ADP Employment Change, est. 300,000
• 09:45: Aug. MNI Chicago PMI, est. 52.1, prior 52.1

Central Banks

• 08:00: Fed’s Mester Discusses Economic Outlook
• 18:00: Dallas Fed Holds Event to Introduce New President Lorie Logan
• 18:30: Fed’s Bostic speaks on role of fintech in financial inclusion

DB’s Henry Allen concludes the overnight wrap

Was back in the office yesterday after a two-week break but needed an extra day recovery before I started the EMR again as Monday was the twin’s 5th birthday. To say they were excited would be an understatement. More is to come as they have their birthday party and 30-40 kids coming round our house on Sunday. After another dry spell Sunday brings rain again apparently! We’re used to this adversity as the first day of our Cornwall holiday saw a dramatic storm and the first rain for 2-3 months. A few days of typically chilly, breezy, and slightly wet UK beach weather followed. In my second week off back home I played 5 rounds of golf so that was the proper holiday. My handicap is now the lowest it’s ever been so there’s life in the multiple operated on old dog yet! Back to the real world now though and not only has the world got darker since I’ve been off but so have work hours. I always take these two weeks off every year and it always marks a depressing reality that winter is coming. Before I go away it’s just about light when I get up. However, by the time I get back from holiday it’s firmly dark waking up for the EMR. It’ll be a good 7-8 months before I see light again on the early EMR shift.

The dark mirrors the mood in markets which has seen a rapid deterioration since Jackson Hole, with the S&P 500 shedding a further -1.10% yesterday to move back beneath the 4000 mark. The index is now -7.85% below its mid-August intra-day highs and -5.08% since last Thursday’s pre Jackson Hole close. We’re still +8.71% above the June lows though. Ironically, strong US data releases prompted the latest sell-off, as they showed that consumer confidence was more resilient and the labour market was tighter than expected. But in today’s high-inflation environment, good economic news is enabling the Fed to be even more aggressive on rate hikes, and the market developments yesterday were very much in keeping with that theme. We actually reached an important milestone yesterday too, as the futures-implied Fed funds rate for December ticked up +3.0bps to 3.73%, which surpasses the previous high of 3.72% seen back in June after the bumper CPI report for May came in. So for 2022 at least, markets are pricing in their most aggressive pace of hikes to date which makes a lot more sense than where we were a few weeks ago.

In terms of the specifics of those data releases, an important one was the JOLTS data, which showed that job openings unexpectedly rose to 11.239m in July (vs. 10.375m expected). That marked a break in the trend of 3 consecutive declines, and shows that the Fed still have significant work to do if they want to bring labour demand and labour supply back into balance. Another indicator we’ve been tracking is the number of job openings per unemployed worker. That also bounced back up to 1.98 in July, which is just shy of its record high of 1.99 in March. So even with 225bps of Fed hikes by the July meeting, that measure of labour market tightness has barely budged. Then we got the Conference Board’s consumer confidence data for August, which came in at a 3-month high of 103.2 (vs. 98.0 expected), with rises for both the expectations and the present situation indicators.

This positive news on the economy gave investors growing confidence that the Fed are set to keep hiking into 2023, and sent yields on 2yr Treasuries up +1.8bps to 3.44%. That’s their highest closing level since the GFC, and on an intraday basis they even hit 3.49% at one point. Longer-dated yields also increased, albeit to a lesser extent, with those on 10yr Treasuries flat. FOMC Vice Chair and New York Fed President Williams emphasised the point, saying that rates will need to stay in restrictive territory “for some time”, so the days of pricing rate cuts early next year are over for now. The fed funds futures curve currently has policy rates peaking around 3.90% in the second quarter of next year, with the first full -25bp cut from those highs not until November of next year, as of last night’s close.

The trend towards increasing hawkishness was echoed at the ECB as well yesterday, where the prospect of a 75bps move next week is being increasingly discussed by officials. In the last 24 hours alone, we heard from Estonia’s Muller, who said that “75 basis points should be among the options for September given that the inflation outlook has not improved”. Furthermore, Slovenia’s Vasle said that he favoured a hike “that could exceed 50 basis points”. Germany’s Nagel echoed the ECB chatter from last week, that they should not delay rate hikes just for fear of recession, instead arguing the call for earlier rate hikes to prevent later pain. Further, Pierre Wunsch of Belgium argued the current bout of inflation had structural roots, which called for a quick move to restrictive policy. While neither Nagel nor Wunsch explicitly endorsed a 75bp hike, their comments don’t push back on it.

So overall it’s clear that officials are contemplating a larger hike, and overnight index swaps continue to price a 75bps move as more likely than 50bps for the September decision, closing yesterday pricing +65.8bps worth of hiking for next week’s meeting. It’s set to be a big one!

We should get some additional clues on how fast the ECB might hike with the release of the flash CPI data for the Euro Area this morning. But there weren’t any big surprises in either direction from the country readings ahead of that yesterday. In Germany, the EU-harmonised reading rose to a fresh high of +8.8%, but that was as expected, and it was a similar story in Spain where the harmonised reading fell back to +10.3% as expected.

A complicating factor for the ECB relative to the Fed is the stagflationary impulse coming from the ongoing energy shock, where prices have soared to new records in the last week. However, the last 24 hours brought some further declines that built on Monday’s moves lower, with natural gas futures coming down -7.21% to €253 per megawatt-hour. German power prices for next year came down by an even bigger -21.05%, on top of the -22.84% decline on Monday, although even that -39.09% total decline hasn’t erased the previous week’s gains. One other thing to keep an eye out for from today will be the start of maintenance on the Nord Stream pipeline, which is set to last for 3 days if you take the statement at face value. But as with the shutdown in July, there are concerns that gas flows won’t resume again afterwards, so that’s definitely one to watch.

Oil futures took a big slide, with brent futures down -4.79% and WTI down -5.54%. The proximate cause appeared to be unsubstantiated rumours that the US and Iran had reached a deal to reinstate the nuclear deal. However, a US State Department spokesperson later denied the rumours, and we’ve already heard from OPEC+ that any supply increase from Iran would be offset by supply cuts among the cartel. So if oil prices stay around these levels, perhaps the market is pricing in more global demand slowdown than unmitigated supply expansion.

For sovereign bond yields, the more hawkish noises from the ECB outweighed the effect of falling energy prices yesterday, with the 2yr German yield up +6.1bps. Similarly to the US, the increases in yields were concentrated at the more policy-sensitive front end of the curve, with longer-dated yields seeing smaller moves, including those on 10yr bunds (+0.8bps), OATs (+0.7bps) and BTPs (+1.7bps).

On the equity side, the risk-off tone took the major indices lower on both sides of the Atlantic, with the S&P 500 (-1.10%) experiencing a 3rd consecutive decline. The more cyclical sectors led the moves lower, and the more interest-sensitive megacap tech stocks continued to struggle, with the FANG+ index down a further -2.04%. In Europe, the STOXX 600 was down -0.67% yesterday, although that decline was somewhat exaggerated by the fact that London equities were returning after Monday’s declines. Indeed, the DAX actually ended the day up +0.53%, although that was the exception as the CAC 40 (-0.19%) and the FTSE MIB (-0.08%) both posted modest declines.

The more negative mood of the last few days has continued into today’s Asian session, with the Nikkei (-0.40%), Hang Seng (-0.39%) and the Shanghai composite (-1.18%) all losing ground this morning despite earlier better-than-expected economic data from China and Japan. Starting with the former, both manufacturing (49.4 vs 49.2 expected) and non-manufacturing PMI (52.6 vs 52.3 expected) were ahead of estimates but the manufacturing gauge stayed in contraction territory. In Japan, we got strong beats for industrial production (+1.0% vs -0.5% expected, MoM) and retail sales (+0.8% vs +0.3% expected, MoM). US Treasury yields are up across the curve, with the 2y yield (+2.1bps) gains ahead of 10y ones (+0.9bps).

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the flash CPI reading for the Euro Area in August, as well as the country readings for France and Italy. On top of that, there’s German unemployment for August, Canada’s GDP for Q2, and in the US there’s the ADP’s report of private payrolls for August and the MNI Chicago PMI for August. Finally, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Mester and Bostic.

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

On September 3, 1783, after nearly a year of excruciating back-and-forth negotiations, all sides had finally gathered together in Paris to sign a historic peace agreement.

It was a pretty important peace deal. Because the Treaty of Paris, as it is now known, is what formally ended the American Revolution, and when Great Britain legally recognized the United States as an independent nation.

The treaty was signed in Paris because France had been a major supporter of the US war effort. And just as soon as the ink was dry, French King Louis XVI ordered his finance minister to prepare an accounting of exactly how much money France had spent on US independence.

The result was nothing short of astonishing—more than 1 billion livres.

To put that number in context, the French Treasury’s entire annual revenue only amounted to around 200 million livres.

So they had basically sunk FIVE YEARS worth of their tax revenue fighting someone else’s war.

Granted, Britain was still one of France’s main rivals. And the French did not care for British King George III.

But the American War was simply too costly, and France had already been on very shaky financial footing well before this point.

Louis XIV had nearly bankrupted the country a century before. His successor, Louis XV, had to drastically slash expenses and could barely hang on financially.

Then, in 1774, just prior to the American Revolution, Louis XVI became king at a time that France was rapidly deteriorating.

You’d think that with so much economic turmoil at home that he would have focused on his own national interests… and, in lieu of money, weapons, and ships, he would have instead sent the royal thoughts and prayers to America.

But no.

Lucky for the United States, Louis XVI courageously fought the American Revolution down to the very last French taxpayer.

Only after the war did Louis finally take stock of the situation and realize the truth: America was in a much better position. Britain was bruised but still powerful. Yet his own France was nearly bankrupt and desperately in need of cash. Not exactly a win/win.

Louis XVI was King, but his powers were limited; he was beholden to the legislature, called the Estates-General, and he couldn’t simply decree new taxes without their consent.

The King did, however, control the tax collectors. And Louis made sure they had every authority to coerce, harass, and intimidate money out of French citizens.

French tax collectors had the authority to walk right into people’s homes unannounced, conduct surprise inspections to look for hidden wealth, and walk away with whatever money or property they felt would satisfy the peasant’s tax bill.

This is actually a pretty common theme throughout history: governments that are on the ropes routinely resort to plundering the savings of their citizens.

Several ancient Roman emperors, in fact, from Diocletian to Valentinian III, famously sent ruthless tax collectors to harass their citizens and steal their wealth. Several ancient Chinese dynasties did the same thing. So did the declining Ottoman Empire.

Significantly ramping up tax collection efforts is typically a hallmark of an economy and empire in decline.

So we can’t be too surprised that, in its latest legislative bonanza, the US government is setting aside $80 billion for IRS tax collection efforts.

They’re calling the bill, of course, the Inflation Reduction Act. This is pure comedy—the legislation will do no such thing. Why would inflation, which in part was caused by excessive government spending, magically dissipate because of more government spending? It’s ludicrous.

But inflation aside, front and center in the legislation is $80 billion in funding for the IRS, primarily to step up its tax collection and enforcement efforts.

To put that number in context, the annual budget for the IRS is about $12 billion. So, even though the $80 billion will be leaked out over a period of several years, it constitutes a major increase in the IRS budget.

The entire idea is based on a bizarre notion known as the ‘tax gap’. This is the difference between the amount of tax the government collects, versus the amount the government thinks they should collect.

In other words, the tax gap represents how much they believe people are cheating. And the estimates vary wildly, from $100 billion per year to a whopping $1 trillion per year.

Frankly these numbers have always seemed to me like they were completely made up. No one has explained how they actually come up with such estimates. They just barf up some number and pretend that it’s true.

Obviously there are a whole lot of hardcore tax cheats out there, stealing and defrauding the system. But that’s not why the IRS is receiving an $80 billion boost.

This money will go to hire a small army of tax inspectors who will fan out across the nation on a giant fishing expedition that will ensnare countless middle class Americans and small businesses.

Certainly they’ll catch a few cheats along the way. And they may even find a few bucks to close that mythical ‘tax gap’.

But at what cost?

One of the biggest problems with the US economy right now is that it’s so much more difficult to produce goods and services.

Over the past few years, the people in charge have put up endless road blocks and obstacles for small business.

They vanquished the labor market and made it all but impossible to find workers. They destroyed the supply chain. They engineered historically high inflation. They came up with a myriad of costly new environmental and public health rules.

On top of that they constantly create new rules and regulations, many of which step far beyond the government’s authority.

(Last year, for example, the CDC Director decided in her sole discretion that she controlled the entire $10+ trillion US housing market.)

23% of full-time workers today require a government license to do what they do, according to the US Department of Labor. Even being a hairdresser is full of red tape and costly bureaucracy.

This new threat of widespread tax audits is going to be yet another obstruction to Americans’ productivity…. at a time when the economy desperately needs maximum focus.

Inflation is raging because there is a serious, global imbalance between the supply and demand of goods and services.

Specifically, demand is too strong because they doled out trillions of dollars in free money. And supply is weak because nearly every single government policy makes it harder for people to produce (which is yet another hallmark of empires in decline).

Now, on top of everything else, there is a very high likelihood of being harassed by the tax authorities.

Audits are incredibly unpleasant, costly, and time-consuming. Even if all of your accounts are in order and you’ve done nothing wrong, a tax audit monopolizes a tremendous amount of time and money.

It’s debilitating. Say goodbye to actually running your business, growing sales, or spending time with your family on nights and weekends… and say hello to preparing for your tax audit.

Your time will now be spent digging up receipts, finding old contracts, and trying to recall specific details of trivial decisions you made years ago.

Plus you’ll most likely have to pay outside experts to assist with the process, like CPAs and attorneys. And naturally the government does not reimburse you for such expenses. But at least you’ll get to deduct them… from your taxes.

In the end, after endless financial scrutiny, the government may conclude that you owe them a few bucks because of some undocumented deduction from several years ago. So you write them a check for some trivial sum… after having spent countless hours and effort taken away from your productivity.

The cost/benefit just doesn’t compute. And that’s why healthy, prosperous nations don’t engage in such absurd activities. They don’t need to.

Taxes ultimately represent the government’s ‘slice’ of an economic pie. So when a country is prosperous and an economy is strong, the government’s slice continues to grow because the overall economic pie is constantly getting bigger.

But nations in decline don’t see it this way. For them, the pie is shrinking. So they think the only way to increase their slice is to go after other people’s crumbs.

History shows this is absolutely the wrong move. Raising tax rates, inventing new taxes, and recruiting armies of tax collectors only makes the pie shrink even more.

Their efforts, instead, should be focused on making the pie bigger. But they don’t think that way.

Bear in mind this is all brought to you by the same people who are shoveling your tax dollars out the door to Ukraine $50 billion at a time. It’s very ‘Louis XVI’ of them.

All of these trends—the cannibalistic surge in tax authorities, the anti-productive regulations, the economic scarcity mentality—are all hallmarks of an empire in decline.

The situation is NOT terminal. It is NOT irreversible. But it is reason enough to have a Plan B.

Over the past week, shocked Europeans – mostly in the UK and Ireland – have been posting viral photos of shockingly high energy bills amid the ongoing (and worsening) energy crisis.

Several of the posts were from small business owners who getting absolutely crushed right now, and won’t be able to remain operational much longer.

One such owner is Geraldine Dolan, who owns the Poppyfields cafe in Athlone, Ireland – and was charged nearly €10,000 (US$10,021) for just over two months of energy usage.

As the Irish Times reports, “The cost of electricity to the Poppyfields cafe for 73 days from early June until the end of August came in at €9,024.70 an increase of 250 per cent in just 12 months. There doesn’t include the €812.22 in VAT, which brought her total bill to €9,836.92.”

“How in the name of God is this possible,” tweeted Dolan.

I got this electricity bill today, how in the name of God is this possible, we’re a small coffee shop in westmeath pic.twitter.com/uz5J8BePhB

— poppyfields cafe.🇺🇦 (@DolanGeraldine) August 29, 2022

UK pensioners are also facing a “terrifying” winter, as elderly Britons are about to get hit with an 80% rise in energy bills in October.

Elderly Britons are set to welcome a boost of around £1,000 to their state pension payments next year thanks to the return of the triple lock, however the cost of living crisis will still leave them significantly poorer.

However, the price cap for energy bills will rise by 80 per cent to £3,549 in October, and it is predicted to rise over £6,600 next year according to Cornwall Insight.

Higher energy bills often hurt pensioners significantly more than the rest of the population because they spend a greater amount of their income on heating their home. -Daily Mail

According to Caroline Abrahams, charity director of Age UK, “‘It’s a truly frightening prospect and one that most could not have prepared for, and never expected to face at this point in their lives,” adding “I think a lot of older people will be utterly bewildered that it has come to this and will also feel badly let down, and I can’t say I blame them.”

But that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Twitter researcher ‘Crab Man’ (@crabcrawler1), who compiles deep dives on a wide variety of topics (and is absolutely worth a follow), has put together a lengthy thread of similar cases – and put it in the context of the current European energy backdrop. The situation is dire, to say the least.

https://t.co/GqKe6S0M7a

— Crab Man (@crabcrawler1) August 30, 2022

Firebrick Brasserie. Lauder, United Kingdom. Had to close yesterday FOREVER, b/c of energy prices in the UK.

“energy prices that companies are charging – there is no price cap for businesses!!- have meant it is no longer sustainable for us to continue.”
https://t.co/67CrgVw7sd pic.twitter.com/NOvMTQpumR

— Crab Man (@crabcrawler1) August 30, 2022

“Closed our tearoom we’ve successfully run for 7 years due to increasing costs in food/petrol/ utilities. Can’t sustain the hikes.” pic.twitter.com/BW0bgqH1kO

— Crab Man (@crabcrawler1) August 30, 2022

“I currently pay £126 a month gas and electricity combined. Live alone. How the actual fuck can THIS be right? And I’m in a reasonable job. But I just can’t afford this. No fucking way.” pic.twitter.com/TvIcbW7NS3

— Crab Man (@crabcrawler1) August 30, 2022

“Telford chippy boss ‘in tears’ as £5k monthly gas and electric bill forces business to close” https://t.co/gMtXWQymbY

— Crab Man (@crabcrawler1) August 30, 2022