Futures Jump Above Key CTA Trigger Level Ahead Of PPI Data

After sliding 8 of the previous 9 days, US stock futures extended yesterday’s gains as investors awaited today’s PPI data (ahead of next week’s critical CPI print) and the Fed’s final meeting for 2022 next week. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 were up 0.6% as of 7:30 a.m. in New York, while S&P 500 futures rose 0.5%; more importantly spoos were back above the critical and closely watched medium-term CTA trigger of 3976. Treasury yields were little changed, with the 10-year rate just below 3.5%. The Bloomberg dollar index dropped.

And maybe even notable is that in its latest market commentary, Goldman’s trading desk warned that “L/Os I speak with telling me they are bumping up against their cash ceilings.” Are we about to see a flood of year-end buying as there is just too much cash on the sidelines as funds continue to dump assets. Underlying indexes rallied on Thursday after almost 9 straight days of losses, and are still on track to post a weekly decline amid fears of a hawkish-for-longer central bank and the risk of a recession in 2023.

Oh lordy: “L/Os I speak with telling me they are bumping up against their cash ceilings.” – GS pic.twitter.com/S1MIUrvLgK

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 9, 2022

Among notable moves in premarket trading, Activision Blizzard fell after the US Federal Trade Commission sought to block Microsoft’s $69 billion acquisition of the videogame publisher, saying the deal would harm competition. DocuSign Inc. jumped after the e-signature company reported third-quarter billings that were stronger than expected. Analysts noted that results were boosted by early renewals. Piper Sandler upgraded to neutral from underweight. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Coinbase drops 2.8% in US premarket trading, after Mizuho Securities downgraded its rating on the cryptocurrency exchange to underperform from neutral. Analysts say that consensus expectations are “too optimistic” for the company’s 2023 revenue.
• Netflix rises 2.3% after the streaming company is upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at Wells Fargo, with analysts seeing a path of positive catalysts in 2023 driven by lower churn and stable subscribers. Separately, Cowen names Netflix as its top large- cap stock pick for 2023.
• Lululemon slides 6.8% in light volumes as lower-than-expected profitability raised concerns about a pileup of inventory, while the the yogawear maker’s full-year sales forecast disappointed Wall Street.
• Pharvaris drops 14%, erasing some of yesterday’s gains, when the stock more than quadrupled in price. The surge followed the firm’s announcement that the RAPIDe-1 Phase 2 clinical study of PHVS416, an oral on-demand treatment for angioedema attacks, met primary endpoint and all secondary endpoints.
• Take-Two Interactive has “bright” long-term prospects through owning iconic IPs such as Grand Theft Auto and a track record of successful releases, though Citi starts coverage on the video game developer on the sidelines on the expectation of consensus FY24 estimates falling.
• Rally in Chinese stocks listed in the US continued, with major internet stocks making fresh gains in premarket trading on Friday as steps to relax pandemic curbs gain momentum.
• Apple analysts are trimming their sales estimates for the iPhone maker’s fiscal first quarter as disruptions at its factories in China are expected to hit sales. With delivery times for iPhone recovering over the past week, analysts note that demand for the top-end smartphone models is still holding up and expect the backlog to benefit subsequent quarters. Shares gained about 1%.
• Broadcom shares are up 4% after the semiconductor device company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and gave a revenue forecast that was ahead of consensus. Analysts were positive about the company’s consistent execution amid a tough macro environment.
• Carvana Co. slumps 6% after Needham cut its recommendation on the stock to hold from buy saying “confidence is low on the path forward.” The latest downgrade follows similar moves from at least five other brokerages in recent months, including Wedbush, William Blair and Cowen.
• Chewy’s fiscal 3Q results look strong, though its conservative guidance may disappoint some investors, analysts say. Chewy shares fell 1.1%.
• Erasca is 2.9% lower after its stock offering priced via JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs.

Focus this morning will be on US producer prices data amid optimism that inflation peaked earlier this year. The Fed has signaled it’s ready to start slowing the pace of rate hikes at its meeting next week, and investors will look for clues about its policy outlook for next year. CMC Markets market analyst Michael Hewson said “the big question” from hereon is whether the trend of cooling prices “can be maintained against a US central bank that doesn’t want to be seen as going soft on inflation, and services and wages data that points to a US economy that is slightly more resilient than originally thought.”

“Traders will be closely watching today’s PPI data, with S&P 500 options markets pricing the largest potential move around any PPI release this year,” said Hugo Bernaldo, senior cross-asset trader at Optiver. “Investors will also be looking for clues in today’s data of how Tuesday’s more important CPI figures will come in.”

A Bloomberg News survey showed fund managers are optimistic about a stock recovery next year, expecting low double-digit gains, although they cite a strong recession and stubborn inflation as the biggest risks. Top market strategists are more cautious, saying equities are likely in for a rough ride in the first half of the year as they price in a possible economic contraction. Bank of America Corp. strategists also warned that investors betting on a rally after the Fed’s last rate hike could be in for disappointment due to the impact of higher inflation. Their note, citing EPFR Global data, showed outflows of $5.7 billion from global equity funds in the week through Dec. 7.

Fed officials are leery of fanning stock rallies that ease financial conditions too much and thwart their inflation-fighting mission. Strategists have lined up to warn investors against piling back into risk on hopes the Fed is getting close to pivoting to easier policy. “Central banks will rather be on the safe side when it comes to future inflation after having underestimated inflationary pressures last year,” Karsten Junius, chief economist at Bank J. Safra Sarasin Ltd., wrote in a note to clients, adding that a pause in rate hikes is some way off.

European stocks also rose: travel, media and construction are the strongest-performing equity sectors. Euro Stoxx 50 rises 0.2%. FTSE MIB is flat but underperforms peers. Here are the most notable European movers:

• BICO Group shares jump as much as 75% after the Swedish biotech issued shares to Germany’s Sartorius and agreed on a strategic collaboration with the lab-equipment group.
• Man Group shares rose as much as 6.5% after the UK investment group announced a new share buyback program of up to $125m.
• ABN Amro shares rise as much as 4.2% after it was upgraded to outperform at Credit Suisse
• Credit Suisse shares rise 3.7% after the troubled lender completed its 4 billion-franc capital increase, giving the bank the funds needed to go ahead with its restructuring.
• Pendragon shares drop as much as 28% after the auto dealer says Hedin Group no longer intends to make a bid for the company due to challenging market conditions and the uncertain economic outlook.
• Carl Zeiss Meditec shares drop as much as 11%, the most intraday since October 2019, after the medical optical manufacturer said its first quarter 2022/23 Ebit margin is expected to fall significantly year-on-year amid higher costs and China’s Covid lockdowns.
• Ipsen falls as much as 7.0%, the most since Oct. 27, after a phase III trial evaluating its Cabometyx in combination with another drug failed to meet its primary endpoint of overall survival in non-small cell lung cancer.
• Worldline falls as much as 6.0% after it was cut to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan, with the broker saying a key pillar of its bullish view on the stock is deteriorating.
• TotalEnergies shares retreated as much as 2.0% after the French energy group said it would take a $3.7 billion impairment hit in its fourth-quarter results following a decision to no longer consolidate its 19.4% stake in Russia’s Novatek.

Asian equities also gained Friday as most regional markets followed US shares higher, while reopening moves in China kept overall sentiment upbeat. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.4%, heading for a sixth-straight week of gains, lifted by technology shares. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbed more than 2%, leading gains in the region, while gauges in Japan and Taiwan advanced more than 1%. Shares of Chinese developers led the advance in Hong Kong as expectations grew for more policy support. Macau casino shares also rallied as the city followed the mainland to relax some of its Covid restrictions.  Read: China Stocks Cap Another Week of Hefty Gains on Reopening Moves

“A significant easing of Covid measures could happen in the second half of the year after gradual, piecemeal measures in the first quarter,” said Iris Pang, chief economist for Greater China at ING Groep NV. Still, “there are likely downside risks associated with the higher number of Covid cases.”  The Asian stock benchmark was on track for its longest weekly run of gains in two years, amid expectations for China’s reopening and the Federal Reserve’s pivot from its aggressive tightening. The gauge has risen more than 18% from its October low, on the cusp of entering a technical bull market. Traders are focusing on US producer prices data due later in the day, which may offer cues on the Fed’s tightening path

Japanese equities climbed, tracking a rebound in the S&P 500 Index, as investors awaited US inflation data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s tightening path.  The Topix rose 1% to 1,961.56 as of the 3 p.m. market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 advanced 1.2% to 27,901.01. Sony Group contributed the most to the Topix’s gain, increasing 2.3%. Asian gaming stocks rose as the US Federal Trade Commission seeks to block Microsoft’s $69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard.  Out of 2,164 stocks in the index, 1,633 rose and 420 fell, while 111 were unchanged. “The immediate focus of market participants is on PPI, CPI and the FOMC,” said Shogo Maekawa, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management.

Australian stocks gained as miners advance, tracking Asian peers. Australia’s key equity benchmark index rose 0.5%, boosted by miners and consumer staples shares, as regional stocks followed Wall Street higher. The S&P/ASX 200 closed at 7,213.20 on Friday but declined 1.2% for the week In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.2% to 11,596.03.

Indian stocks were an outlier on Friday, among the biggest decliners in Asia on Friday,  with key gauges falling more than 1% as as tech shares dropped and investors booked some profits ahead of the year-end with economic growth expected to be under pressure. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.6% to 62,181.67 as of 3:45 p.m. in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index slipped by a similar magnitude. Both gauges fell 1.1% for the week, their biggest declines since late September. Tech shares contributed the most to Friday’s falls after management of HCL Technologies said fiscal 2023’s revenue growth will be at the lower end of the 13.5% to 14.5% band, triggering concerns about the industry’s prospects next year. Infosys was the biggest drag on the Sensex, with the company dropping 3.1%.

In FX, the dollar trims some of its earlier losses, though still lower on the day; CHF and JPY outperform in G-10 FX. The Bloomberg dollar index fell as much as 0.3% before paring much of that drop; it’s closed lower for the past two sessions.

• The euro was little changed at 1.056 while the pound gained 0.2%, leaving it unchanged on the week at about $1.226
• USD/JPY fell 0.5% to around 136; spot dollar was sold for the daily Tokyo fixing but Japanese banks continued after the event and in large amounts, according to Asia-based FX traders
• Asian currencies “are buoyed on the back of overall risk on, a softer USD and China cheer” on re-opening hopes, said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics & strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in Singapore. “This is at least partly owed to the fact that markets as of now are ignoring the ‘for longer’ threat embedded in the Fed’s rate hike dial-back,” he said

In rates, Treasuries outperform bunds and gilts at the 10-year mark. Treasury 10-year little changed around 3.475% with front-end richer and long-end cheaper; bunds lag by additional 5bp on the 10-year sector vs Treasuries, gilts by 3bp. The TSY curve was near steepest levels of the day heading into early US session with 2s10s, 5s30s spreads wider by 3bp and almost 4bp as long-end underperforms. Bigger losses across long-end of the German curve weigh on Treasuries, while US front-end recovered some of Thursday’s losses during Asia session. European bonds fell, led by Italy; 10-year German yield heads 4 basis points higher to 1.86%. Peripheral spreads widen to Germany with 10y BTP/Bund adding 4.3bps to 191.5bps.

In commodities, WTI trades within Thursday’s range, adding 1.4% to near $72.49. Spot gold rises roughly $5 to trade near $1,795/oz. Most base metals trade in the green.

To the day ahead now, and it’s a quiet one on the calendar, although data releases include the US PPI reading for November, as well as the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for December.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.6% to 3,989.75
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 436.37
• MXAP up 1.2% to 159.01
• MXAPJ up 1.2% to 518.83
• Nikkei up 1.2% to 27,901.01
• Topix up 1.0% to 1,961.56
• Hang Seng Index up 2.3% to 19,900.87
• Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 3,206.95
• Sensex down 0.7% to 62,154.01
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 7,213.18
• Kospi up 0.8% to 2,389.04
• German 10Y yield up 2.1% to 1.86%
• Euro little changed at $1.0550
• Brent Futures up 0.9% to $76.80/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,791.17
• US Dollar Index little changed at 104.83

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

• The dollar is seen staying in defensive mode versus its major peers next year, according to analysts. Options traders remain bullish on its prospects yet topside bets continue to lose traction.
• Three-month Euribor extends its advance as traders wager the European Central Bank will raise interest rates for a fourth successive meeting to a 13-year high at 2% next week.
• The Bank of England said the expectations that British consumers have about where inflation is headed drifted further above its 2% target, and more people were dissatisfied with the way the central bank is doing its job.
• The Riksbank may be near a peak level for borrowing costs after a string of key rate hikes, Riksbank Deputy Governor Per Jansson said.
• China faces a daunting task after abruptly giving up on Covid Zero, with infections set to surge and deaths predicted to top 2 million.
• China will sell 750 billion yuan ($108 billion) worth of special sovereign bonds next Monday to “support economic and social” development, the Ministry of Finance said in a statement late on Friday.

A more detailed summary of markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pacific stocks traded mostly higher as the region took impetus from the gains on Wall St where the major indices found some relief during a quiet session ahead of next week’s key risk events. ASX 200 was marginally positive with the index led higher by strength in the mining sector, but with gains capped by weakness in defensives and the top-weighted financial industry. Nikkei 225 moved closer to the 28,000 level amid the momentum from the US and after PM Kishida denied they were planning to increase the income tax for defence spending, although a separate report noted that Japan is considering raising corporate tax instead to fund the defence spending. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were indecisive in which the Hong Kong benchmark whipsawed and the mainland was lacklustre as participants digested the latest inflation data which showed a slowing pace of CPI growth and slightly narrower-than-expected fall in producer prices, while property names were underpinned on reports that China is mulling further property market easing measures at next week’s economic meeting.

Top Asian News

• Chinese Premier Li said inflation remains high in some countries and that the world economy faces grim challenges with the risk of a global recession increasing. Li also noted that the domestic economy is currently in a stable state after reversing the Q3 economic decline and said China is to further smooth logistics, while he added that China cannot stop opening up and will continue at a high level.
• Canadian police suspended a contract with a China-linked firm amid concerns regarding potential Chinese access to Canadian police communications, according to SCMP.
• Japan is considering raising corporate taxes to fund defence spending, according to Yomiuri.
• Iron Ore Climbs to Four-Month High on Optimism Over China Policy
• Xi Visit to Saudi Arabia Brings Pledge of More Oil Trade
• SoftBank Group Cuts SenseTime Stake to 17.97% From 18.02%

Equities in Europe trade with no firm direction in what has been a quiet morning session thus far in holiday-thinned volumes, with little follow-through experienced from the gains in APAC. In Europe, sectors are mostly firmer with no overall bias and again with a narrow market breadth. Stateside, action is in-fitting with European peers as macro catalysts are light ahead of next week’s blockbuster docket. China November vehicle sales fell 7.9% Y/YY vs prev. increase of 6.9% in October, according to the industry association, while CAAM suggests an extension of purchase tax cut on combustion engine vehicles to 2023. CAAM forecasts China 2023 vehicles sales +3% YY, large scale COVID infections will have an adverse influence in 2023. Tesla (TSLA) is to suspend Model Y production at Shanghai Plant between December 25th and January 1st; to reduce output in December by around 30% from November for Model Y, according to an internal memo cited by Reuters

Top European News

• UK Treasury publishes the ‘Edinburgh reforms’: to reform short selling regulation. To consult on removing rules for capital deduction at banks. To review senior manager certification rules. Click here for more detail.
• BoE/ Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey – November 2022: median public inflation expectation for the coming year at 4.8% in Nov (prev. 4.9% in Aug); 1-2yr inflation 3.4% (prev. 3.2%), 5yr 3.3% (prev. 3.1%).
• UK Sets Out Post-Brexit Finance Plan to Spur City of London
• Two More ECB Rate Hikes Seen Before QT Goes Live Early Next Year
• Arnault’s Son Antoine Takes Wider Role at LVMH Luxury Empire

FX

• DXY managed to derive some support after losing 104.50 in early trade, currently the index is lower but in proximity to the 104.86 peak.
• Peers are generally fairly contained with modest outperformance in safe-haven JPY and CHF as US yields slip slightly.
• Petro-FX continues to lag as the broader complex is once again consolidating with minor gains in the context of recent price action.
• NOK knocked on soft CPI ahead of the Norges Bank while NZD was underpinned overnight despite mixed domestic data.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9588 vs exp. 6.9604 (prev. 6.9606)

Fixed Income

• EGBs and USTs continue to diverge, though overall action has been limited given a lack of drivers and thin volumes.
• EZ periphery is cognisant of the looming TLTRO.III repayment publication, though the impact may not be felt until the January window.
• Stateside, yields are modestly softer across the curve, with action slightly more evident at the short-end.

Commodities

• WTI Jan and Brent Feb remain firmer intraday but in the grander scheme are consolidating with modest gains, the former around USD 72.50/bbl (vs low 71.32/bbl), and the latter just above the USD 77/bbl mark (vs low 75.95/bbl).
• Kuwait set January KEC crude OSP for Asia at Oman/Dubai + USD 2.10/bbl, according to Reuters.
• Russia is to decide on whether to increase oil production after Q1 following the introduction of the price cap, via Tass citing an official.
• China’s Securities Regulatory Commission is to allow overseas investors in DCE soybean, soybean meal and soybean oil futures and options from December 26th.
• Canada to review regulatory framework for critical mineral mines and other cleans growth projects to make them faster and more predictable; seeking regulatory harmonization opportunities with the US in a new critical mineral strategy.
• Spot gold remains capped by USD 1800/oz while base metals are off best levels after deriving modest support overnight.

Geopolitics

• US is preparing to send a USD 275mln military aid package to Ukraine, according to AJA Breaking.
• Lithuanian PM Simonyte says Russian President Putin wants a break in the Ukrainian invasion, in order to regroup.
• US is to sanction entities from China and Russia related to human rights abuses, according to WSJ.

US Event Calendar

• 08:30: Nov. PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%; YoY, est. 7.2%, prior 8.0%
  • PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.2%; YoY, est. 4.7%, prior 5.4%
  • PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0%; YoY, est. 5.9%, prior 6.7%
• 10:00: Oct. Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%
• 10:00: Dec. U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 57.0, prior 56.8
  • U. of Mich. Expectations, est. 54.5, prior 55.6
  • U. of Mich. Current Conditions, est. 58.8, prior 58.8
  • U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 4.9%, prior 4.9%
  • U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation, est. 3.0%, prior 3.0%
• 10:00: Oct. Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.8%, prior 0.8%
• 12:00: 3Q US Household Change in Net Wor, prior -$6.1t

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Risk appetite returned to markets over the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 snapping a run of 5 consecutive losses to advance +0.75%, whilst bond yields moved higher as well. That came in spite of fresh jitters about the state of the US economy, with the latest data on continuing jobless claims showing a further increase to 1.671m in the week ending November 26 (vs. 1.618m expected). That’s their highest level since early February, and follows a noticeable increase over recent weeks that’s seen them rise by nearly a quarter since mid-September.

With growing concern about a potential recession, attention today will turn to another couple of data points that may give a steer on how aggressively the Fed will lift rates over the coming months. The first is the US PPI inflation reading for November at 13:30 London time. Usually the producer price release gets less market attention compared to consumer prices, but in part that’s because the CPI number is normally out first. This month however, PPI is out first, so should offer a signal on inflation in November ahead of the all-important CPI release on Tuesday. Our economists forecast that both headline and core PPI will come in at +0.2% on a monthly basis, in line with consensus.

The second data point will be the preliminary reading on the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for December. That fell back in November after having risen for the 4 previous months, so the question will be whether that was just a blip or the start of a more pronounced downturn. We’ll also get their measure of longer-term inflation expectations that is closely watched. That’s begun to tick back up over the last couple of months, so any further rises would be concerning from the Fed’s point of view, who thus far have been reassured by the fact that longer-term expectations have remained anchored.

Ahead of those releases, we got some fresh signs of elevated US inflation pressures from the Atlanta Fed’s wage growth tracker, with the main measure of median hourly wage growth remaining unchanged at 6.4% in November. That’s a bit beneath the peak of 6.7% between June and August, but isn’t suggesting a meaningful deceleration in wage inflation as we move deeper into Q4, and this data is normally highly correlated with the Employment Cost Index.

With upcoming data providing the main focus today, markets remained in something of a holding pattern as investors looked forward to the packed calendar of events next week, including the Fed and ECB decisions. For instance, expectations of the Fed’s terminal rate continued to hover around the 5% mark, where they’ve been for nearly a couple of months now. Sovereign bond yields did see a noticeable bounceback yesterday, but that was coming off from their lowest levels in a couple of months, with 10yr Treasury yields up +6.5bps on the day to 3.48%. The 2s10s curve also moved to become slightly less inverted with a +1.3bps move to -83.0bps, but again that was coming off a multi-decade low for the curve the previous day.

Elsewhere yesterday, the downward trajectory in oil prices continued, with Brent crude falling a further -1.32% to $76.15/bbl. That left it at its lowest levels of the year so far, despite a brief surge in prices intraday after the Keystone oil pipeline was shut following a leak. WTI similarly pared back its brief gains to close -0.76% lower at $71.46/bbl. These lower prices are flowing through to the real economy as well, with US gasoline prices now down by just over a third from their peak in mid-June, currently at $3.329/gallon. Furthermore, the energy price declines were seen in European natural gas futures as well, which fell -6.94% on the day to €139 per megawatt-hour.

For US equities, there was a decent bounceback yesterday, with the S&P 500 up +0.75% as technology stocks led the advance. For instance, the NASDAQ was up a larger +1.13%, and the FANG+ index of megacap tech stocks rose +2.51%. Over in Europe, the tone was much more subdued for equities, with the STOXX 600 (-0.17%) losing ground for a 5th consecutive day. However, sovereign bonds traded more in line with their US counterparts, with yields on 10yr bunds (+3.7bps), OATs (+4.5bps) and BTPs (+8.6bps) all moving higher on the day.

Overnight in Asia, the major equity indices have mostly followed the US higher, with gains for the Nikkei (+1.27%), the Hang Seng (+1.64%), the CSI 300 (+0.24%), the Shanghai Comp (+0.05%) and the Kospi (+0.47%). The moves came as Chinese inflation remained subdued in November, with year-on-year CPI down to +1.6% as expected, down from +2.1% in October, which was seen as offering policymakers more space to stimulate the economy if required. That continued to be driven by food prices, which were up +3.7%, compared to non-food prices which only rose +1.1%. Elsewhere, the PPI reading was slightly higher than expected, but was still at a deflationary -1.3% over the last year (vs. -1.5% expected).

To the day ahead now, and it’s a quiet one on the calendar, although data releases include the US PPI reading for November, as well as the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for December.