Panic-Buying Already Spreading As Dockworker Strike Gets Underway

Panic-Buying Already Spreading As Dockworker Strike Gets Underway

By Noi Mahoney of FreightWaves

As union dockworkers began striking against employers at East and Gulf Coast ports early Tuesday morning, reports of panic-buying at supermarkets almost immediately started spreading across social media.

Video clips posted by social media users on X and Facebook showed people rushing to buy water, toilet paper, paper towels and other items at supermarkets and retailers across the U.S. 

“Are people already panic buying because of the Port Strike? Here are the grocery shelves in the water section at my local Kroger this morning. I realize that we are probably also low on water due to the Helene aftermath in East Tennessee, but still not great to see this already,” photographer and author Denise Van Patten posted in a social media video clip on X.

Micheal Coker posted on X, “Well the panic buying is in full swing in my little town in South carolina. Sam’s at 8:30 a.m., no water. Same at Walmart and grocery stores. Next will be toilet paper.”

The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) is the union behind the strike against its United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) employers for a new master contract. The two groups negotiated back and forth up until late Monday night, when the union’s deadline for a strike expired at midnight.

Major issues on the bargaining table are wages, benefits and rules on port automation. The ILA said USMX’s latest reported wage increase proposal of 50% over six years of a new contract was rejected by its members.

The affected ports, represented by USMX, include three of the U.S.’s five busiest ports: the Port of New York and New Jersey, the Port of Savannah, Georgia, and Port Houston. 

Matthew Shay, president and CEO of the National Retail Federation, called on the Biden administration Tuesday to step in and help end the strike.

“A disruption of this scale during this pivotal moment in our nation’s economic recovery will have devastating consequences for American workers, their families and local communities,” Shay said in a news release. “After more than two years of runaway inflationary pressures and in the midst of recovery from Hurricane Helene, this strike will result in further hardship for American families.”

Shay urged the administration to prioritize the economy “and intervene immediately to prevent further hardship and deeper economic consequences.”

A prolonged strike could cause major disruption to the domestic supply chain, according to American Farm Bureau Federation Economist Daniel Munch.

“For international destinations, waterborne exports are vital to us farmers,” Munch said in a podcast on Thursday. “They make up over 75% of total U.S. agricultural export volume. The potential strike that we’re looking at would mainly disrupt containerized agricultural exports, which account for 30% of U.S. waterborne agriculture exports by volume. The remaining 70%, often grains and oil seeds, are shipped via bulk carriers, which are usually managed by independent workforces and will not be affected by the strike.”

He said U.S. farmers could be particularly vulnerable to a strike that lasts a week or more.

“The strike could have disastrous impacts on U.S. agriculture, depending on how long it lasts,” Munch said. “The disruption to overall agricultural trade is expected to be about $1.4 billion each week that a strike is in place. When we think about what commodities are at risk, nearly 80% of waterborne exports of poultry leave East Coast ports, 56% of raw cotton, 36% of red meat, 30% of dairy products and even 6% of soybeans all go through those ports, through containerized exports. Not having an outlet to move those goods will create supply surpluses domestically and reduce prices for farmers.”

The top retailers that could be affected by the work stoppage at the ports are Walmart, Ikea, Samsung and Home Depot, according to data from ImportGenius and Arbor Data Science.

Last year, Walmart led all U.S. retailers with the most imports to East and Gulf Coast ports. Officials for Walmart said they prepare for any potential disruptions to their supply chain.

“We prepare for unforeseen disruptions in our supply chain and maintain additional sources of supply to ensure we have key products available for our customers when and how they want them,” Jeffrey Essary, a global communications spokesperson for Walmart, told FreightWaves.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/02/2024 – 12:05

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/hY0MFBs Tyler Durden

Walsh’s “Am I Racist” Outgrosses Coppola’s Anti-Trump Vanity Project, Cost 40x Less

Walsh’s “Am I Racist” Outgrosses Coppola’s Anti-Trump Vanity Project, Cost 40x Less

Authored by Victoria Cook via Headline USA,

Daily Wire commentator Matt Walsh released his bitingly comedic documentary, Am I Racist?, in early September to great acclaim, vexxing film critics and industry insiders who see themselves as the exclusive gatekeepers of the silver screen.

The movie’s surprise success—even while facing vicious left-wing attacks—stood in stark contrast with the failure of Francis Ford Coppola’s Megalopolis, a sci-fi political drama with an anti-Trump political subtext that opened over the weekend with neither critical nor audience acclaim—despite its bloated budget, all-star cast and abundance of Hollywood hype.

This pattern may signal a shifting trend in consumer sensibilities. Prior conservative-friendly films, such as Angel Studios’s Sound of Freedom, have exceeded box office expectations, while movies and television series deemed exceedingly “woke” have continued to fizzle.

That includes Disney’s most recent addition to the Star Wars canon, The Acolyte, which drew backlash from loyal fans for its preoccupation with feminist and LGBT virtue-signaling.

By aggressively alienating conservative viewers, leftist Hollywood studios “are leaving plenty of money on the table, and we’re happy to come in and take some of it, because, at a minimum, you are explicitly refusing to serve 50% of the audience,” Walsh said, according to Variety. 

Am I Racist?, an irreverent look at how “diversity, equity and inclusion” proponents fail to grasp their own hypocrisy, raked in $4.5 million on opening and has a 97% audience approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes.

Walsh, who incurred leftist notoriety with his previous documentary, What Is a Woman?, goes undercover in the film as a progressive interviewer, meeting with prominent DEI speakers like White Fragility author Robin DiAngelo.

The movie, which cost $3 million to make (the expenses paid to so-called DEI experts are a running joke throughout the film) had grossed more than $11 million as of Sept. 30, according to Box Office Mojo.

Meanwhile, Megalopolis made $4 million at the box office in its opening weekend and has a 34% audience approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes.

The film—a $120 million passion-project decades in the making for the Godfather director—is a cautionary tale about a fragile republic, susceptible to greed, corruption and fascism, with a plot that loosely transposes the fall of the Roman empire into a modern setting.

Unfortunately for Coppola, his film failed to impress most critics, who thought the message was obfuscated by too many ideas.

While the movie tried to be nominally inclusive by casting Trump-supporting Oscar-winner Jon Voight, Coppola wasn’t shy about connecting it explicitly to the current U.S. political landscape, insinuating that democracy hung in the balance with the upcoming Nov. 5 election.

“Men like Donald Trump are not at the moment in charge, but there is a trend happening in the world, there is a trend toward the more neo-right, even fascist division, which is frightening,” Coppola said, according to Deadline.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/02/2024 – 11:25

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Gold Is Just Getting Started

Gold Is Just Getting Started

Via SchiffGold.com,

Last week Peter joined Oliver Renick on his show, “Market on Close,” on the Schwab Network. They discuss gold’s stellar year in 2024 and where the metal is heading, and Peter also comments on the price of crude oil, treasury yields, and the Fed’s recent rate cut. 

Peter compares gold in 2024 to gold in 1979 but notes one key difference. In 1980, the Fed raised rates, putting a stop to gold’s rise. Rate hikes are highly unlikely after the Fed’s recent announcement:

“Gold is up almost 30% so far this year. Another all-time record high today, getting close to 2700 in the spot market. This is the best year that gold has had since 1979…

A key difference between now and 1979? That was the end of the gold bull market. And in 1980, Paul Volcker raised interest rates up to 20%.

That’s what killed the bull and brought inflation down. But the current Fed is cutting rates. It’s going to cut rates more in 2025. So, gold is just getting started.

A 50 basis point rate cut signals that either the Fed is scared of America’s economic future, or they believe we’re already in a recession:

Well, the Fed is very desperate. I mean, normally they wait until there’s a problem before cutting rates.

They wait for a major stock market decline. They wait for a recession. But here, they’re cutting rates even before we’re officially in a recession and with the stock market at all-time record highs, with real estate prices at all-time record highs, and with the gold price at all-time record highs.

We’ve never had the Fed start cutting rates when gold was at an all-time record high. And in fact, the record high in gold proves that the Fed’s rate cut was a mistake.”

A lot of the data that supposedly portrays a healthy economy is corrupted by the pervasiveness of private and public debt. GDP growth is one example:

“The GDP is consumers spending borrowed money to buy more expensive groceries and stuff like that. The government spending borrowed money is a big part of that GDP. And we have a massive deficit that is a consequence of this fake GDP growth…

…We do not have a good economy. We don’t have a growing economy. We have inflation. And inflation creates the illusion of economic growth. But people are getting poorer, even though the numbers are going up again.”

For more Schiff insight and insight from the Austrian school of economics, watch a recent interview between Peter and Jason Burack, host of “Wall Street for Main Street.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/02/2024 – 10:45

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WTI Holds Gains Despite Surprise Crude Build (Biggest Since June)

WTI Holds Gains Despite Surprise Crude Build (Biggest Since June)

Oil prices continues to rise (amid geopolitical tensions), supported by an API-reported crude draw overnight and OPEC+ headlines denying any apparent rift or plans to increase production aggressively.

“Iran sits astride the world’s most strategic energy region, oil- and gas- production facilities and transit choke points,” said Bob McNally, founder of Rapidan Energy Group and a former adviser to president George W Bush.

“So, when Iran is involved in a shooting war with its neighbours, you have to price in some geopolitical disruption risk, especially when it comes to Israel,” he added.

Will the already low (tank bottoms) Cushing (and total crude) stockpiles get tested further…

API

  • Crude -1.46mm (unch exp)

  • Cushing +700k

  • Gasoline +900k (-300k exp)

  • Distillates -2.7mm (-1.4mm exp)

DOE

  • Crude +3.889mm (unch exp) – biggest build since April

  • Cushing +840k

  • Gasoline +1.119mm (-300k exp)

  • Distillates -1.284mm (-1.4mm exp)

In direct conflict with API’s report, the official data shows a large 3.9mm barrel build in crude stocks (and an increase in stocks at the Cushing Hub). Presumably this surprise crude build was driven by anticipation of Hurricane Helene’s impacts…

Source: Bloomberg

Refinery utilization rates in the Midwest slumped to 85%, the lowest since April. On a seasonal basis, that’s also the lowest seen for this time of the year since 2020. That’s mainly the result of BP Whiting carrying out maintenance. On the Gulf Coast, rates are the lowest since March amid planned work. PBF Chalmette, in New Orleans, has take two gasoline units — an FCC and an alkylation unit — offline for work.

Gasoline demand plunged to a four-year seasonal low following a fifth straight decline last week.

Source: Bloomberg

The Biden admin added 660k barrels to the SPR which when added to the commercial build is the largest increase since June.,..

Source: Bloomberg

US Crude production remains near record highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil pries are holding their gains despite the crude build…

Source: Bloomberg

“This fresh escalation is serious and justifies oil’s jump,” said Bill Farren-Price, a veteran oil market watcher and senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

“But we’ve been here before — the conflict needs to show signs of spreading to the Gulf if it is to ignite a broader and sustained oil price rally. At the moment it has not.”

Helima Croft, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets and a former CIA analyst, said oil traders needed to assess whether Israel would retaliate by directly targeting critical Iranian military and economic assets, including energy infrastructure.

“In April, the Israelis opted for a muted response to the Iranian missile and drone strikes. And yet in the past two weeks the [government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu] has demonstrated an increasingly high-risk tolerance for escalatory actions to achieve their strategic objectives.”

Of course President Biden (well – whoever is running the show behind getting ‘her’ elected) will not want to see crude prices rising (nor will Jay Powell, so soon after his mission accomplished 50bps cut out of nowhere).

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/02/2024 – 10:41

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Yen Craters As Japan Gives Up On Further Rate Hikes, Carry Trade Is Back With A Bang

Yen Craters As Japan Gives Up On Further Rate Hikes, Carry Trade Is Back With A Bang

In the past two months, reports of the yen carry trade have been greatly exaggerated, largely as a result of market whiplash to Japan’s schizophrenic approach toward the currency.

Recall, that for years on end, the BOJ and the government were doing everything in their power to crush the Japanese currency in hopes of sparking an inflationary wage-growth conflagration, which to a country stuck in a deflationary debt trap, seemed like the only possible exit from an existential implosion. But then, once the yen did crater and hit a 40 year low earlier this year, Japan scrambled to do the opposite and intervened in the open market on multiple occasions to contain further selling of the currency as the resulting inflation led to devastated standards of living and sparked outrage among the local population over runaway inflation, eventually resulting in the collapse of the Kishida government, just as we warned back in June.

But it was only when the BOJ decided to shock the market with a surprise second rate hike in July – even as the rest of the world was aggressively cutting rates – that the yen soared, and the yen carry trade was allegedly left for dead. Indeed, the plunge in the USDJPY was one for the history books: tumbling from 162 to 140, countless yen shorts were annihilated.

The problem with this, of course, is that not only did the Nikkei crater, forcing the BOJ to immediately come out and defend the “wealth effect”, i.e., stocks, saying that it would never again hike if markets were unstable thus capitulating on its hawkish strategy just days after the hike, but with Japan extremely sensitive to yen moves, it means that from roaring inflation, China was about to revert back to its status quo: paralyzing deflation (because unlike the US, and thanks to its 400% debt/GDP, Japan is simply unable to find a happy medium and always swings from one extreme to the other). Indeed, just four days ago we said observed that a core CPI measure for Japan tumbled suggesting the surging yen was about to spark a new deflationary tidal wave…

.. leading us to conclude that “Japan’s hiking cycle is almost over”, after just one tiny rate hike.

We were right.

This morning, Japan’s new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who was touted as an uber hawk and the leader that would force the BOJ kicking and screaming to keep hiking for the foreseeable future, plunging Nikkei and inflation notwithstanding, confirming everything we have said in the past two months when he announced that the economy isn’t ready yet for further interest rate hikes, following a first meeting with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on the first full day of his new administration.

As Bloomberg first reported, Ishiba said conditions weren’t right for the BOJ to move again following two interest rate hikes earlier this year, in comments that jolted the yen to its weakest against the dollar for the day, and have sparked the USDJPY’s next move back to 160…. which is another thing we predicted a few days ago.

The comments came after a flurry of signaling Wednesday that Ishiba’s government has no desire for now to see the central bank raise borrowing costs further. Additionally, ministers played down the premier’s appetite for monetary policy normalization and highlighted the need for the central bank to focus on the unfinished task of eradicating deflation.

In other words, just as we said: Japan’s hiking cycle is over, with the rate rising to a whopping 0.25%. Because when your debt/GDP is 450% that’s as far as it can go.

At the meeting between Ishiba and Ueda, the central bank chief qualified his commitment to raising interest rates if the economy and prices match the BOJ’s forecasts, according to his comments after the talks.

“While we will adjust the degree of monetary easing if the economy and prices match our forecasts and the economy works as we expect, I also told him we want to look carefully to see if that really is the case because we have sufficient time to do so,” Ueda told reporters at the prime minister’s residence.

Which, incidentally, is hilarious because the comments make it quite clear that when it comes to financial repression and monetary policy, “western” central banks are anything but independent and always do the bidding of their sovereign masters. Which is especially amusing considering the western media is abuzz with scaremongering over what could happen to Fed “independence” in the US should Trump win. Well, spoiler alert: central banks have never been independent, and the latest yen interlude just confirmed it!

To mitigate the horrendous optics of this “yentervention” by the PM, even Bloomberg was forced to step in with damage control writing that “while it’s common for Japan’s central bank chief to hold regular meetings with the nation’s leader, Ueda’s visit came at an unusually early stage of the new administration, an indication that Ishiba’s government is determined to coordinate closely with the central bank and dispel any impression it seeks rapid rate hikes.

Again, so much for central bank independence.

Which brings us to another critical topic: since the BOJ hiking cycle is over, the yen is now free to resume its plunge, and that means the yen carry trade is fully back on, just as one of the best Goldman FX traders, Kerem Cirpan wrote yesterday (full note here) to wit:

Nature is healing for JPY carry trades on the back of the Fed easing into strong growth and BoJ showing no interest for rapid policy normalization. Declining M2 growth in Japan does not bode well for policy plans of Japan’s new PM. Potential equity correction over the next weeks due to US election uncertainty and poor seasonals can offer good entry points for long USDJPY.

It turned out that a great entry point for going long the USDJPY would come just hours later, now that the BOJ is done hiking for good (full Goldman note available to pro subscribers here).

And with that, the USDJPY is cleared to return back to 160, where it was just two months ago.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/02/2024 – 10:30

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Tesla Shares Dip After Reporting 462,890 Q3 Deliveries, Missing Analyst Estimates

Tesla Shares Dip After Reporting 462,890 Q3 Deliveries, Missing Analyst Estimates

Tesla shares are dipping heading into the cash open on Wednesday after the company reported 462,890 total deliveries during the third quarter.

Tesla reported 462,890 deliveries and 469,796 vehicles produced in Q3 2024. Analysts, based on FactSet StreetAccount estimates, had expected 463,310 deliveries for the quarter ending September 30. 

Though Tesla doesn’t define “deliveries” in its financials, it’s seen as the closest metric to units sold and is a key figure for Wall Street. A year ago, Tesla posted 435,059 deliveries and 430,488 vehicles produced, while last quarter it reported 443,956 deliveries and production of 410,831 units.

There was even a whisper number of 472,000 based on VIN data, which is why shares may be dipping. 

 

Prior to the report, Piper Sandler’s Alexander Potter had raised his delivery estimate to 459,000 EVs for Q3 and 1.75 million for the year, slightly below consensus but optimistic about Tesla’s performance in China, Yahoo Finance wrote this week. 

Barclays’ Dan Levy projects over 470,000 units in Q3, citing global EV sales and August data from China. “Our delivery estimate implies volume up ~6% sequentially and ~8% year-over-year,” Levy noted. “We believe a beat could drive further stock strength into Robotaxi Day.”

Wedbush’s Dan Ives expects sales and profitability to improve. “Price cuts are mostly in the rear view mirror, removing a margin overhang…we believe gross margins should finally start to rebound in 3Q,” Ives stated.

S&P Global Mobility reports Tesla sold over 5,000 Cybertrucks in July, bringing year-to-date sales to 17,722, according to Yahoo Finance.

Deutsche Bank projects Q3 sales to reach 13,500 units. Although just 3% of total sales, the Cybertruck’s growth could impact whether Tesla meets overall delivery targets.

For now, the bigger catalyst could be the company’s October 10 robotaxi event, which has driven shares up 20% in a month. More significant news might also come from the company’s Optimus robotics program.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/02/2024 – 09:35

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/9uEAhbF Tyler Durden

A Crystal Ball Isn’t Enough: The Importance Of Context

A Crystal Ball Isn’t Enough: The Importance Of Context

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

On September 18, 2024, the headlines read the Fed cut the Fed Funds rate by 50 basis points. At first blush, one would think that a trader with a crystal ball a couple of days before the Fed action would buy bonds and lick their chops over the money they would soon make. In this case, the crystal ball was a curse.

Bond yields rose following the rate cut despite what many investment professionals perceive to be a bullish event. If you scour the media, you will find rationales for the sell-off. Such includes the Fed stoking inflation or China’s massive stimulus package. In our opinion, it’s much more straightforward; it all comes down to context.

We were inspired to write this by a message asking us in disbelief if we had ever seen such an adverse bond market reaction to a rate cut.

To help answer the question, we share an article entitled When A Crystal Ball Isn’t Enough To Make You Rich by Victor Haghani and James White, along with their Crystal Ball Challenge. The article and challenge help us appreciate that context is often more valuable than a crystal ball. 

Technicals Provide Context

On September 18, when the Fed cut interest rates by 50bps, ten-year note yields rose slightly from the opening yield of 3.68% to close the day at 3.69%. Five days later, the yield rose another .12% to 3.81%.

A crystal ball enlightening a trader about the rate cut headlines would have been costly. However, a trader with the crystal ball and proper context may have been more successful. In trading, context describes market conditions and recent trends. On a short-term basis, excellent context can be gleaned from technical analysis.

To contextualize the Fed rate cuts, investors had been expecting a rate cut at the September meeting for months. Furthermore, in the days leading up to the announcement, the odds of a 50bps rate cut increased markedly. The critical context was the 1% decline in ten-year note yields since April, and, equally importantly, bond prices were extremely overbought on a technical basis.

This potential for a bearish reaction to what should have been positive news from the Fed was not lost on us. On September 17, the day before the meeting, we wrote the following summary on bonds in our Daily Commentary:

Yesterday, we discussed the market’s strong rally from the recent lows. However, the bond market has rallied just as strongly ahead of this week’s highly anticipated Federal Reserve meeting and the expected rate cut. As shown, Treasury bonds (as represented by TLT) are quite deviated from the 50-DMA and overbought on multiple levels. While we remain bullish on bonds in the longer term, particularly as the economy slows, the current overbought conditions and “exuberance” into the bond trade over the last few months is a bit overdone.

With the Fed meeting this week, the current setup suggests that even if the Fed cuts rates as expected, this could be a “buy the rumor, sell the news” setup for bonds. Of course, as is always the case, overbought conditions can remain overbought longer than most imagine, so trade accordingly.

To subscribe to our Daily Commentary free of charge to your email every morning, click HERE.

With that example of how context was more valuable than a crystal ball, we let you discover the value of a crystal ball without any context.

The Crystal Ball Challenge

The article noted in the introduction is based on information the authors gleaned by subjecting over 118 young adults schooled in finance to the Crystal Ball Challenge.

Before summarizing the article, click on the crystal ball below. Take the challenge and see what value, if any, a crystal ball with tomorrow’s headlines is in predicting short-term price changes. (LINK)

Review: When A Crystal Ball Isn’t Enough To Make You Rich

Per the whitepaper:

Was Taleb correct in his conjecture that “If you give an investor the next day’s news 24 hours in advance, he would go bust in less than a year”? While our experiment didn’t test his statement precisely – we only gave players 15 days of front pages, players were risking just $100 in the game, etc. – by and large we think Taleb is right.

The 118 young finance professionals posted a meager positive return. Their results were not statistically different than flipping a coin. They attribute the poor results to two factors.

The first was not correctly guessing how stocks and bonds would perform with knowledge of the headlines 36 hours in advance.

Second, the authors claim the players didn’t properly size their bets. We also presume that some traders made trades on headlines that did not affect the markets. In those cases, it was a 50/50 proposition.

Sizing is an important point the authors stress. Trade sizes should have been minimal, or trades should not have occurred when the trader had little confidence their guess was correct. Conversely, they should have had larger sizes when they had more confidence. 

Experience Matters

The article shares a tweet from the very experienced Lloyd Blankfein, ex-Chair of Goldman Sachs. While he tweets about the market action concerning CPI on one specific day, we bet he would agree that, generally, having news before everyone else may not be all it’s cracked up to be.

After testing the younger finance professionals, the authors wanted to see how experienced traders would do. They “invited five seasoned and successful macro traders” to take their test. Once again, they found that advanced knowledge of headlines was not incredibly valuable. The traders got 63% correct. However, they posted an average return of 130%.

These players all finished with gains. On average, they grew their starting wealth by 130%, with a median gain of 60%. All of the players were selective and highly variable in their trade-sizing. They did not bet at all on about 1/3 of the trading opportunities, but bet big on days when they presumably felt confident in the impact of the news on stock or bond prices.

Guessing is a fool’s errand when it comes to investing. However, investing with context and adequately sizing your trades/investments based on your confidence level is vital.

The study, in a roundabout way, shows that context matters. As we opined in the opening, technical analysis can provide significant context as to recent trends, the strength of said trends, and how momentum may change. Furthermore, volume and trade analysis can help us find market pain points and price levels where investors are more likely to buy or sell.

Macroeconomic analysis and appreciation for the liquidity situation of a market are also essential to help bolster your context. Along the same lines, given the importance of actual and perceived liquidity, a good appreciation for the Fed’s current mindset and their current and likely stance on monetary policy is critical.

With proper context, a headline in your crystal ball may prove much more valuable.

Summary

A crystal ball would be an excellent addition to our market analysis arsenal. Advanced knowledge of market, economic, political conditions, and other events would likely positively impact our performance. The impact, however, would be over the longer run, not in the returns immediately following the foreseen events. Trading on a short-term basis with no context can be hazardous to your wealth.

Furthermore, assumptions of a specific result due to particular news are often faulty. As the old saying goes- buy the rumor, sell the news!

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/02/2024 – 09:15

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/7M2Rxdp Tyler Durden

Post-Debate: Vance Vanquishes ‘Knucklehead’ Walz & Muting Moderators

Post-Debate: Vance Vanquishes ‘Knucklehead’ Walz & Muting Moderators

Cordiality amidst clashes marked the first and only vice-presidential debate of 2024 as Republican JD Vance and Democrat Tim Walz squared off on Tuesday night. 

The Oct. 1 CBS News event was hosted by Norah O’Donnell, of CBS Evening News, and Margaret Brennan, of Face the Nation (and once again the moderators became part of the story too).

While both were plainspoken and civil, Vance provided a crisp defense of former President Donald Trump’s America First policies while Walz, in defending the policies of the administration co-helmed by his running mate, Vice President Kamala Harris, stumbled at times.

Vance’s dominant debate performance earned him rare praise from some liberal media outlets.

A majority of columnist and contributors, nine out of thirteen, surveyed by The New York Times said Vance won the debate.

A CNN post debate poll saw Vance as the winner of the debate by a 2 percent margin.

As Nathan Worcester, Joseph Lord, Jacob Burg, and Andrew Moran report via The Epoch Times, here are highlights of a debate that revealed commonalities and differences between the two Midwesterners.

Vance Highlights Harris’s Record, Walz Defends It

“If Kamala Harris has such great plans for how to address middle class problems, then she ought to do them now,” Vance said in his closing remarks.

The senator brought up Harris’s record on a range of issues from immigration and the economy to America’s ongoing housing crisis. He blamed Harris for moving to free up several billion in Iranian assets before the events of Oct. 7 when Hamas terrorists attacked southern Israel.

“When did Iran and Hamas and their proxies attack Israel? It was during the administration of Kamala Harris,” Vance said.

Walz countered by claiming that Trump’s leadership had laid the groundwork for destabilization in the region.

“We need the steady leadership that Kamala Harris is providing,” he said.

Vance described a surge of immigrants in recent years as one of multiple factors increasing housing prices, pinning responsibility on Harris and her administration for relatively lower wages for domestic workers and other issues he tied to the border.

Walz responded in part by saying that the border crisis could have been addressed through the bipartisan bill advanced by Sen. Jim Lankford (R-Okla.) and others earlier this year, in line with arguments from Harris and other Democrats.

Members of Israel’s Home Front Command and police forces inspect a crater left by an exploded projectile at a heavily-damaged school building in Israel’s southern city of Gedera on Oct. 1, 202, after Iran fired between 150 and 200 missiles in an attack on Israel. MENAHEM KAHANA/AFP via Getty Images

Vance also blamed Harris for what he called “censorship on an industrial scale,” describing government-coordinated suppression of information on social media and in other contexts as more perilous to democracy than Trump’s rhetoric on Jan. 6, 2021.

Walz in his response pivoted to talk of Jan. 6, the initial question that prompted Vance’s talk of censorship.

Vance also discussed Harris’s record on energy, saying the United States “has got to invest more” in nuclear power than it has under Biden-Harris.

Walz defended the administration’s energy policy, saying natural gas production was at record levels. That’s in line with figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. He did not mention nuclear energy.

Civility No Ordeal

Facing off on primetime television at a time of intense national polarization, the two Midwestern politicians from opposing parties remained, in true Midwestern fashion, nice.

Though they often clashed, both found points of agreement. “There was a lot of commonality here,” Walz said in his closing statement.

Vance helped set the tone with gracious gestures.

During a discussion of the devastation from Hurricane Helene, Vance suggested both men would be praying for the victims.

Vance also expressed sympathy for Walz when the governor said his 17-year-old had seen a shooting.

“Christ have mercy,” the senator said.

The agreement went beyond rhetoric to include some policy substance.

Avery Sherrill salvages what he can from his destroyed family business, Mudtools, along the Broad River in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene in Bat Cave, North Carolina on Oct. 1, 2024. Sean Rayford/Getty Images

Amid a discussion of reshoring American manufacturing, Walz said, “much of what the senator said right there, I’m in agreement with him,” before saying the Schumer-Manchin bill championed by his ticket-mate drove manufacturing job growth.

In a discussion of housing prices, Walz said he and Vance could “find some common ground.”

Vance said some of his opponent’s statements, which focused on the commoditization of homes and Minnesota’s down payment financial assistance program, included some things he sees as “halfway decent” and others with which he disagrees.

He went on to specify that he agrees housing shouldn’t be seen as a commodity.

In a discussion of childcare shortages, Vance said his opponent was right to emphasize a lack of flexibility when it comes to funding providers, saying churches and some other models cannot always easily get support under the status quo.

“Unfortunately—look, we’re going to have to spend more money,” the senator added.

“I don’t think Senator Vance and I are that far apart. I’m not opposed to what he’s talking about on options,” Walz said.

CBS Cuts Mics as Vance Challenges Fact Check

At the beginning of the debate, Brennan said the debate would “provide the candidates with the opportunity to fact-check claims made by each other. CBS News reserves the right to mute microphones to maintain decorum.”

That policy came under pressure Tuesday night.

During an exchange on immigration, Walz raised Vance’s statements about Haitian migrants in Springfield, Ohio.

“The people that I’m most worried about in Springfield, Ohio, are the American citizens who have had their lives destroyed by Kamala Harris’s open border,” Vance replied.

Border Patrol agents take asylum seekers into custody after they crossed a remote part of the U.S.-Mexico near Jacumba Hot Springs, California, on Sept. 19, 2024. John Moore/Getty Images

Brennan later clarified, after Walz’s response, that “Springfield, Ohio does have a large number of Haitian migrants who have legal status, temporary protected.”

Earlier this year, the Biden-Harris administration extended temporary protected status to 300,000 Haitians who were illegally in the United States.

“The rules were that you guys weren’t going to fact-check, and since you’re fact-checking me, I think it’s important to say what’s actually going on,” Vance rebutted.

Both moderators talked over Vance and tried to move to the next question as Walz also chimed in.

CBS eventually muted both candidates’ microphones as Vance gave an explanation of the asylum process that gave the migrants in Ohio legal status, contrasting it with the green card application process which immigrants are typically expected to comply with.

“Gentlemen, the audience can’t hear you because your mics are cut,” Brennan said before moving on to a question about the economy.

Margaret Brennan (L) and Norah O’Donnell moderate the Vice Presidential debate between Senator and Republican vice presidential candidate J.D. Vance and Minnesota Governor and Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz, hosted by CBS News at the CBS Broadcast Center in New York City on Oct. 1, 2024. ANGELA WEISS/AFP via Getty Images

Home Prices

Even as they concurred on some issues, including aspects of the housing crisis, Vance and Walz ultimately disagreed on the root causes.

While saying it is not the sole reason for rocketing housing costs, Vance attributed the rise in part to Harris “letting in millions of illegal aliens into this country.”

“Twenty-five million illegal aliens competing with Americans for scarce homes is one of those most significant drivers of home prices in the country,” he said. “It’s why we have massive increases in home prices that have happened right alongside massive increases in illegal alien populations under Kamala Harris’s leadership.”

Vance touted Trump’s proposals to restore housing affordability by using federal lands, reducing red tape, offering tax breaks, and decreasing immigration.

But lowering energy prices is another strategy to lower home prices, Vance noted.

“If a truck driver is paying 40 percent more for diesel than the lumber he’s delivering to the job site to build the house is also going to become a lot more expensive,” Vance said. “If we open up American energy, you will get immediate pricing relief for American citizens.”

Walz disagreed that illegal immigration is one of the primary factors behind record home prices.

In recent Congressional testimony, a former Border Patrol chief for the Yuma Sector described the increase in crossings under the Biden administration compared to the Trump administration.

“There have been more than 10.5 million illegal entry encounters nationwide, with more than 8.5 million of those encounters at the southwest border since the beginning of [fiscal year] 2021. By comparison, CBP recorded around 3.1 million such encounters nationwide from [fiscal year] 2017-2020,” Chris Clem testified.

The Harris campaign has proposed building three million new affordable homes and rental units, facilitated through grants, tax credits, and red tape reduction. She wants to give first-time homebuyers $25,000 in down payment assistance.

Tough Questions on Past Statements

Both candidates faced questions about comments they made in the past.

Walz was asked about his claim that he was in Hong Kong when the June 4, 1989, Tiananmen Square massacre occurred.

It was later found that Walz had arrived in China in August of that year, making it impossible for him to have been there then.

Beijing residents inspect the interior of one of over 20 armoured personnel carrier burnt by demonstrators to prevent the troops from moving into Tiananmen Square 04 June 1989. MANUEL CENETA/AFP via Getty Images

When pressed by moderators about the claim a second time, Walz said he misspoke.

He added that he was a “knucklehead” at times and “got caught up in the rhetoric” when he made the claim.

Vance was also asked about his past comments about Trump, including comments published by The Washington Post in which Vance was critical of Trump’s economic performance as president.

Vance did not deny the reported messages but blamed Congress for holding Trump’s agenda back, saying there “were a lot of things on the border, on tariffs.”

Trump “could have done so much more if the Republican Congress and the Democrats in Congress had been a little bit better about how they governed the country,” Vance said.

Speaking on other past comments critical of his running mate, Vance repeated his regret for the comments, saying,  “I was wrong about Donald Trump.”

“Donald Trump delivered for the American people, rising wages, rising take-home pay, an economy that works for normal Americans, a secure southern border,” Vance said. “When you screw up, when you misspeak when you get something wrong, and you change your mind, you ought, to be honest with the American people.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/02/2024 – 08:54

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2zmA98x Tyler Durden

ADP Employment Report Shows Strong Rebound In Jobs

ADP Employment Report Shows Strong Rebound In Jobs

In the first major labor market indication since The Fed slashed rates by 50bps (because the economy is doing so well?), ADP’s Employment report showed a much bigger than expected increase in jobs (+143k vs +125k exp vs +103k prior)…

Source: Bloomberg

That was above all but one of the economists’ estimates…

Source: Bloomberg

Job creation showed a widespread rebound after a five-month slowdown. Only one sector, information, lost jobs. Manufacturing added jobs for the first time since April.

Wage growth continues to slow…Year-over-year pay gains for job-stayers fell slightly in September to 4.7 percent. For job-changers the decline was greater, falling from 7.3 percent in August to 6.6 percent.

“Stronger hiring didn’t require stronger pay growth last month,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.

“Typically, workers who change jobs see faster pay growth. But their premium over job-stayers shrank to 1.9 percent, matching a low we last saw in January.”

So how will The Fed explain their next rate cut if jobs are re-accelerating?

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/02/2024 – 08:36

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/Cgk9PBm Tyler Durden

Americans’ Stunning And Growing Dependence On Government Aid In Pictures

Americans’ Stunning And Growing Dependence On Government Aid In Pictures

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The number of counties dependent on government aid has surged over time. The lead chart shows political party affiliation.

The Wall Street Journal has a great article on the Growing Reliance of Americans Are Dependence on Government Aid over time. That is a free link.

Americans’ reliance on government support is soaring, driven by programs such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.

That support is especially critical in economically stressed communities throughout the U.S., many of which lean Republican and are concentrated in swing states crucial in deciding the presidential election. Neither party has much incentive to dial back the spending.

The big reasons for this dramatic growth: A much larger share of Americans are seniors, and their healthcare costs have risen. At the same time, many communities have suffered from economic decline because of challenges including the loss of manufacturing, leaving government money as a larger share of people’s income in such places.

This spending accounts for a big and growing share of the national debt. But this year’s presidential candidates, Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump, have said little about reining it in. In fact, both have offered plans that would add to the costs. Trump would end taxes on Social Security benefits. Harris would expand the Earned Income Tax Credit for lower-income workers and extend Affordable Care Act subsidies that are due to expire, among other proposals.

The data help explain why. Though counties that rely significantly on government spending tend to be small, they are still home to nearly 22% of the U.S. population.

Counties at least 25 Percent Dependent on Government Aid

In 2000 there were about 300 countries dependent on Government assistance. Now there are nearly 2,000.

Battleground States

Many of the counties that rely heavily on government safety-net and social-program money have this in common: They are clustered in the battleground states that will decide the presidential election.

About 70% of counties in Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina are significantly reliant on the government income. So are nearly 60% of counties in Pennsylvania. In Arizona, 13 of the 15 counties are heavily reliant on safety-net income.

Measured another way, more than 44% of Michiganders live in counties that are significantly reliant on the government programs. In Arizona, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, more than a third of the populations live in such counties.

Spending on these programs has outpaced the income people earn from other sources, the EIG analysis shows. Meanwhile, pressure from a graying population won’t let up: By 2060, nearly a quarter of the U.S. will be at least 65, the Census Bureau projects.

Wow.

And Trump thinks Tariffs will help. All Tariffs will do is raise prices.

For discussion, please see Trump Claims Tariffs Will Reduce the Trade Deficit. Let’s Fact Check.

I will have a second article on tariffs and price impacts later this week.

Also see Ridiculous Answers from Harris and Trump Regarding Food Costs

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/02/2024 – 08:25

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/80ymHSP Tyler Durden