In what may be a questionable attempt to provide intraday voting updates, VoteCastr, which aims to break Election Day’s “traditional information embargo,” has gone live on Slate and Vice News, and promises initial voting estimates based to reveal which candidate in leading in most battleground states; it is focusing on Florida, Colorado, Nevada and Iowa – four of the eight states, representing 102 electoral votes, where VoteCastr is concentrating its data-crunching.
Moments ago, Slate, which together with Vice have not been shy about their preference for the next presidential candidate, announced that it “launched our collaboration with VoteCastr this morning with a look at the early vote out of Colorado, where Hillary Clinton is leading Donald Trump 46.3 percent to 43.6 percent based on VoteCastr’s analysis of known ballots cast. We’re now going to take a look at the early vote from six additional battleground states.”
The Slate author adds that “VoteCastr isn’t predicting that Clinton or Trump will win any of these states. There are still plenty of votes left to be counted today. After I lay out how the early-vote numbers are looking, I’ll describe in detail how the VoteCastr methodology works, so you can evaluate these tallies for yourself. Also, keep in mind that these are not the absolute final early-vote numbers; the counts may change as the day progresses as VoteCastr processes more early-vote data. Check back on this page throughout the day for updated early-vote numbers.”
Slate points out that Clinton is leading in five of the six states for which we have data, including Florida. Trump is ahead in Pennsylvania, though early votes in that state are extremely scarce. Specifically, the unproven methodology finds that Hillary Clinton has likely earned more early votes than Donald Trump in Fla., Iowa, Nev., Ohio, Wis. and Colo., according to analysis by Slate’s VoteCastr. Trump likely has edge in early voting in Pa.
To be sure, as Bloomberg adds, “real-time analysis being provided by VoteCastr is built around an unproven technique that hasn’t before been used in campaign forecasting for public consumption; estimates are based on large-scale polling done ahead of Election Day, analysis of early voting and ongoing counts of turnout at key precincts in states where it’s deploying its modeling.”
In short, it may simply be a way to sway public opinion during the voting day.
Here are the details of the Slate report:
- Florida: 2016 Early Vote: 3,685,667 early votes, 41.8 percent of total votes cast in 2012 Clinton: 1,780,573 early votes, 42.0 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total Trump: 1,678,848 early votes, 40.3 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total 2012 Results: Obama won, 50.0 percent to 49.1 percent
- Iowa: 2016 Early Vote: 563,444 early votes, 35.6 percent of total votes cast in 2012 Clinton: 273,188 early votes, 33.2 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total Trump: 244,739 early votes, 33.5 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total 2012: Obama won, 52.1 percent to 46.5 percent
- Nevada: 2016 Early Vote: 593,964 early votes, 58.5 percent of total votes cast in 2012 Clinton: 276,461 early votes, 52.0 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total Trump: 269,255 early votes, 58.1 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total 2012: Obama won, 52.3 percent to 45.7 percent
- Ohio: 2016 Early Vote: 1,320,559 early votes, 23.7 percent of total votes cast in 2012 Clinton: 632,433 early votes, 22.4 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total Trump: 579,916 early votes, 21.8 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total 2012: Obama won, 50.1 percent to 48.2 percent
- Pennsylvania: 2016 Early Vote: 199,167 early votes, 3.5 percent of total votes cast in 2012 Clinton 85,367 early votes, 2.8 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total Trump: 99,286 early votes, 3.7 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total 2012: Obama won, 52.0 percent to 46.8 percent
- Wisconsin: 2016 Early Vote: 560,455 early votes, 18.3 percent of total votes cast in 2012 Clinton 295,302 early votes, 18.2 percent of Obama’s 2012 total vote total Trump: 225,281 early votes, 16.0 percent of Romney’s 2012 total vote total 2012 Obama won, 52.8 percent to 46.1 percent
With little other information to use during the trading day, algos have jumped on this “update”, and have sent the Mexican Peso to intraday highs (and USDMXN to its lows)…
…. while the S&P is now at intraday highs.
via http://ift.tt/2eJ65j4 Tyler Durden