Bonds, Stocks, Dollar, & Gold All Bid As COVID Chaos Continues

Stocks up, Bonds up, Dollar up, Gold up, Bitcoin up… COVID-cases Up…

Increasingly fear-stoking headlines over the weekend on the virus (and more and more cost-cutting corporates quitting Facebook ads) prompted a weak open on Sunday night for US futures and while Nasdaq trod water around unch until the open, Small Caps were mysteriously bid. The open sparked selling which was immediately bid with Small Caps again massively outperforming… (nasdaq lagged the rest on the day). Kudlow excited everyone at the close with “v-shaped recovery” comments but the Dow did well thanks to BA and AAPL (+200 points between them)…

Small Caps were ramped above Friday highs to the edge of the cliff on Thursday before fading…

But the entire stock market move was ignored by bonds…

Source: Bloomberg

FANG stocks opened down notably (FB under pressure), but dip-buyers stepped in quickly…

Source: Bloomberg

TSLA traded back above $1000 on the heels of a Musk tweet

Despite the yield curve steepening, financials underperformed the market today…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were mixed today with the long-end underperforming and the belly best…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar managed another modest gain erasing almost all the losses for June…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin chopped around over the weekend, testing down below $9000 before bouncing back…

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were all higher with oil best despite the dollar gains…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI failed to get back to $40..

Silver bounced off $18 three times today…

 

And ETFs backed by gold haven’t seen a surge in demand like this quarter’s since the world was reeling from the financial crisis.

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note Nomura’s Charlie McElligott’s warnings over the ‘excitement’ at recent “positive” revisions in earnings sentiment.

Recall that perversely, “NEGATIVE revisions” in earnings are a bullish signal for forward returns (+2.3% in SPX with 72% hit-rate over 6w of earnings season), while “POSITIVE revisions” are actually a local “negative” signal for Equities over the same “6w of earnings” window (-0.1% SPX with just a 47% “higher” hit-rate).