Big-Tech Bounces; Bonds, Bitcoin, & Black Gold Struggle As Rate-Hike Odds Rise

A quiet day on the macro-front removed headline risk and allowed the algos to play on a very technical-feeling day.

NVDA rebounded above its 50DMA
Russell 2000 found support at 50DMA
Nasdaq rallied back up to its 50DMA
USD Index rallied up to its 200DMA
Gold fell to its 200DMA

Notably, rate-hike expectations extended their hawkish shift today, erasing all of the dovish-response to payrolls…

Source: Bloomberg

Futures were ugly overnight until hopes of China stimulus sparked a brief buying panic at the end of the Asia session / open of European session. That did not hold well and selling pressure began early in the US session. The cash open sparked Small Caps selling, big-tech-buying but at around 1000ET, 0-DTE traders began to aggressively fade the rally but the S&P held its gains…

Source: SpotGamma

Small Caps ended the day’s biggest loser and The Dow was red and barely better. Nasdaq took al the glory with the S&P far behind but green…

Small Caps bounced perfectly off their 50DMA. Nasdaq rallied back up to its 50DMA…

NVDA opened lower, testing its trillion-dollar-market-cap, but then a wave of buying emerged as a major 0-DTE gamma squeeze swept into the AI-Angel…

Source: SpotGamma

…and lifted it back above its 50DMA…

The timing of the NVDA bounce is right on cue…

Source: Bloomberg

‘X’ marked the spot of acquisition exuberance today – up 40% as it appears in play…

Amid a choppy day, Treasuries were sold across the curve today with the short-end significantly underperforming (2Y +7bps, 30Y +2bps). We note the period from the US open to EU close saw buying…

Source: Bloomberg

2Y yields rose for the 4th straight day, erasing the payrolls puke in yields and back up toward 5.00%…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y Yield hits highest since Nov ’22…

Source: Bloomberg

Dollar Index rallied further, pushing above its 200DMA…

Source: Bloomberg

But it could not hold the 200DMA intraday…

Source: Bloomberg

China’s offshore yuan tumbled to Nov ’22 lows as the nation’s struggling economy prompts capital outflows…

Source: Bloomberg

Russia’s Ruble continued its rout as the country’s current account surplus tumbled 85% from a year ago. But then it stalled after headlines about an ‘extraordinary’ key rate meeting…