Banks, Big-Tech, Bitcoin & Black Gold Breakdown As Beijing Barfs, Builders’ Belief Busts

In a surprise overnight, China cut rates to pre-emptively distract from the pig-ugly China macro data (everything missed). That weakness trumped a surge in Japanese GDP (which itself hid problems with domestic spending) and then US retail sales beat, while homebuilder sentiment disappointed. In other words, decoupling…

Source: Bloomberg

But in the US, strength in the Retail Sales Control Group lifted GDPNOW – The Atlanta Fed’s best-guess at this quarter’s GDP growth – soaring above 5% today (after China’s shitshow of macro data overnight, but Japan’s renaissance)…

Source: Bloomberg

Doesn’t exactly reinforce the case for a Fed pause – in fact this kind of growth bolsters the case for hawkish-for-longer monetary policy, which would weigh on equities and bonds. Rate-hike expectations are nudging hawkishly higher…

Source: Bloomberg

The expectation for rate-cuts next year is also shifting hawkishly…

Source: Bloomberg

However, homebuilder confidence took a kicking today (first drop this year) as reality set in that mortgage rates aren’t going down anytime soon…

Source: Bloomberg

…and after a squeezey day yesterday, the market’s negative gamma re-awakened and the US majors were all clubbed like a baby seal with some notable weakness in the last hour…

Some are suggesting the late day weakness was impacted by the fact that Fidelity clients were offline…

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