Philly Fed ‘Hope’ Hammered As Inflation Expectations Soar

After a few strong months of hope-filled renaissance, the Philly Fed business outlook plunged in June with both the current and forward-looking activity indicators dropping significantly (but the Philly Fed notes optimistically, remaining positive)…

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, it was even uglier, with new orders recording a second consecutive negative reading in June, and the current shipments index fell 6 points to -7.2, its lowest reading since December.

On balance, the firms continued to report a decline in employment.

Source: Bloomberg

However, most worrisome, Philly Fed firms surveyed reported significant increases in prices overall in June.

The prices paid index rose 4 points to 22.5. Almost 26 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices (up from 19 percent last month), while 3 percent reported decreases (up from 0 percent); 71 percent reported no change (down from 78 percent). The current prices received index increased 7 points to 13.7. Nearly 14 percent of the firms reported increases in the prices of their own goods, no firm reported decreases, and 86 percent reported no change.

Source: Bloomberg

The future new orders index fell 24 points to 16.2, and the future shipments index dropped 46 points to -0.1…

Source: Bloomberg

The question is – will the message of soaring price expectations get through to the voting members? Or will expectations for plummeting new orders dominate their thinking?