Investors’ Demand For ‘Sane-Subprime’ Debt Is “Out Of Control”

As Kyle Bass once eloquently noted, the brevity of financial memory is about two years; and nowhere is that more clear than in the explosive resurgence of demand for new subprime-mortgage-backed products. As Scotsman Guide reports, some subprime lenders are reporting strong investor appetite for the once-reviled mortgage products (for borrowers with credit scores as low as 500 and with debt-to-income (DTI) ratios as high as 50 percent). "It's out of control; it seems like there’s 10 times the amount of demand to buy this paper as there are borrowers that want the loans," said one lender. As Bass may have also said "proceed with caution."

 

As Scotsman Guide reports,

Although a number of people still cringe at the term subprime, some subprime lenders are reporting strong investor appetite for the once-reviled mortgage products.

 

 

Investors are interested in recent subprime loans for their better returns than traditional mortgages.

 

Depending on the risk of the borrower, these mortgages carry interest rates between 5 percent and 9 percent. Hutchens said that all types of investors are after the Angel Oak subprime products, from hedge funds to large mortgage lenders — “anyone who’s looking to participate in the mortgage business at higher coupons besides agency modes.”

The reach for yield – and ignorance of risk – but this time it's different…

Angel Oak Mortgage Solutions offers a “non-prime" product on a wholesale basis for borrowers with credit scores as low as 500 and with debt-to-income (DTI) ratios as high as 50 percent, while the company's “recent housing event” product offers similar terms for borrowers one day out from a short sale or foreclosure. Borrowers, however, are required to put down at least 20 percent.

 

“This is the new subprime,” Angel Oak Senior Vice President of Sales and Marketing Tom Hutchens told Scotsman Guide News. “Everyone has preconceived notions about what subprime means. This really resembles how subprime first began — [the borrowers] have equity in the transactions, and fully documented incomes.”

 

 

Athas Capital Group Inc., one of the first companies to reenter the subprime space several years ago, is keeping almost all its mortgages on the books, stopping to sell about 10 percent to 20 percent of production to investors per year. Athas CEO Brian O’Shaughnessy calls the products “sane subprime.”

 

There were investors asking about Athas subprime products from the beginning, O’Shaughnessy said, but lately investors have been seeking subprime with fervor.

 

“It’s out of control; it seems like there’s 10 times the amount of demand to buy this paper as there are borrowers that want the loans,” O’Shaughnessy told Scotsman Guide News. “There is a line outside the door to buy our paper.”

 

One reason, O’Shaughnessy said, is because Athas has has had no defaults and has no current 30-, 60- or 90-day late payments on its subprime loans (there was one 60-day late payment last year, but that borrower caught up, O’Shaughnessy said). Typical borrowers, he said, come to Athas because they can close on a mortgage quickly. The average credit score is 702 on its subprime products, even though Athas goes as low as 550.

 

“Probably the biggest reason [borrowers] come to us is alternative proof of ability to repay, or if they have a past foreclosure or bankruptcy that’s too recent for a bank to consider,” he said.

 

 

"The people investing in this understand that these are well thought out mortgages for people who can actually pay," Perl told Scotsman Guide News. "We're having no problem selling it."

 

 

“We’ve known since 2008 that it’s not the subprime borrower that went away, it’s the product availability,” Hutchens said. “I think we’re going to continue to grow. It’s hard for us to say which year it’s going to hit and at what level, but we know it’s going to be significant.”

*  *  *

Now, what happened the last time that investor demand for a product massively outweighed the supply that lenders could provide? That could never happen again, right?




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Japan Is Dying And We Still Don’t Get It?!

Submitted by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,


Dorothea Lange Miserable poverty, Hooverville, Elm Grove, Oklahoma County, OK Aug 1936

What is it with us? Don’t we WANT to understand? Japan announced on Monday that its economy is in hopeless trouble and back in recession (as if it was ever out). And what do we see? ‘Experts’ and reporters clamoring for more stimulus. But if Japan has shown us anything over the past years, and you’re free to pick any number between 2 and 20 years, it’s that the QE-based kind of stimulus doesn’t work. Not for the real economy, that is.

The land of the setting sun has during that time thrown so much stimulus into its financial system that Krugman-esque calls for even more of the same look even more ludicrous today than they did all along. Abenomics is a depressing failure, just as we knew it would be since it started almost two years ago. It’s not complicated, and it never was.

Japan’s stimulus has achieved the following: banks get to pretend they’re healthy and stocks rise to heights that are fundamentally disconnected from underlying real values. On the flipside of that, citizens are being increasingly squeezed and ‘decide’ not to spend (not much of a decision if you have nothing to spend). Since Japan’s ‘consumer’ spending makes up about 60% of GDP, things can only possibly get worse as time passes. If ‘consumers’ don’t spend, deflation is the inevitable result – and that has nothing to do with the much discussed sales tax, it’s been going on for decades -.

Therefore, the sole thing QE stimulus has achieved is a wealth transfer from poorer to rich. And that’s not only the case in Japan. Mario Draghi yesterday hinted – again – at all the stuff he could start buying next year, including sovereign bonds, even though that would violate EU law. And whether or not Germany will let him in the end, the fact that he keeps the option alive even if only in theory, tells us plenty about the mindset at the ECB.

That is, it’s the same as in Japan. And doing the same can only lead to the same results. A poorer population, a richer toplayer and an economy that continues to shrink, which will and must lead to the same deflationary trend. The idea that an economy can be rescued by pushing public funds into its finance system and stock markets has been forever thrown out by Japan’s experiences.

Draghi said yesterday that ‘monetary policy has done a lot’, and while that may be correct, it says nothing about WHAT it has done. From where I’m sitting, Germany’s recent drift into negative territory and the ongoing record unemployment rates around the Mediterranean certainly tell us a lot about what it has NOT done. QE, no matter how big and how crazy, doesn’t heal real economies, it makes them sicker.

If consumer spending makes up 60% of GDP, as in Japan, or even 70%, as in the US, then you need to boost that spending. And you don’t do that by handing over what financial wiggle room you have left, to banks so they can pile it on to the reserves they hold at central banks.

It is accepted as gospel that it’s a good thing to give banks free money, but it would be the devil’s work to give it to consumers. Instead, the latter must be squeezed from all sides, through austerity, the loss of services, benefits, wages and jobs, in order to prop up the financial system. How and where is it not clear what that will result in? There’s only one possible outcome.

The reason why all governments and central banks keep following the failed QE stimulus path regardless lies in the relative political powers that different parts of a society have. In today’s world, saving the banks, which equals saving the rich, is not only the priority, it’s the only deliberation.

And if you might be under the impression that what is true in Japan and Europe does not hold in the US, why not start with this graph from Doug Short, and take it from there.

If and when an economy is as deep in the doldrums as all major economies today are, you can’t rescue it by taking from the poor to save the rich. It’s fundamentally impossible. You need the bottom 90%’s spending in order to generate enough GDP to stay out of deflation. Money must move through an economy for it to stay sufficiently ‘lubricated’. And the only people who can keep that money moving are the bottom 90%. It’s Catch-22.

Any stimulus must be directed at the bottom, or it must of necessity fail. Nothing commie or socialist about it, but simply the way economies work. And it’s not just some difference of ideal or insight or something, it’s very simply that an economy cannot function without its poorer 90% of citizens spending.

Anything else is simply Grand Theft Auto. Both Japan and Europe are preparing for more of it.




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Grubergate For Idiots (Such As American Voters): All You Need To Know In 2 Minutes

Confused at just what Jonathan Gruber, friend (or not friend) of President Obama and Nancy Pelosi, said (and didn’t say)? Here is the two-minute idiot’s guide to the Obamacare architect (or not Obamacare architect)‘s controversial comments (and just who did and did not know him)…

 




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A Triple-“Fat-Finger” VIX Day

Unrigged…

 

Just as stocks dipped after the opening squeeze and as the afternoon began.. and again into the close… VIX was rammed lower in an awkwardly-timed “well it must be a fat finger” trade that sparked a rebound in the all-time-high trending stock market.

 

 

But note the closing ramp did not work…

*  *  *

It appears more than a few were aggressively buying protection ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC minutes.

 

Charts: Bloomberg




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Marijuana Entrepreneurs Should Follow Joseph P. Kennedy’s Example

“Maybe someday a future U.S. president will owe his or her
backing to the marijuana industry,” writes Thomas Maier, author of
When
Lions Roar: The Churchills and the Kennedys
, in a
recent Newsday op-ed.  

Maier offers the teetotaling patriarch of the Kennedy dynasty as
the model for today’s would-be billionaire pot
investors.
 Kennedy laid the foundation for his
family’s fortune with a combination of investing in British liquor
imports and securing the exclusive rights to sell said products in
New England. Kennedy owed much of his success in securing these
deals to his close relationship with President Franklin D.
Roosevelt (for whom he would later serve as Ambassador to England)
and other Democratic Party bigwigs.Donkeys and elephants are passe.

Though Maier stretches the point a bit by comparing Kennedy’s
spot in the inner circle of a presidency to “today’s pot
entrepreneurs, who often hire expensive lobbyists and
publicity experts, or contribute to pro-marijuana candidates,” he
draws a number of parallels between the repeal of
alcohol prohibition in 1933 and the slow and steady legalization of
marijuana in the United States today:

Kennedy began by offering alcohol for medical reasons, just like
today’s pot entrepreneurs in states such as Colorado where medical
marijuana was first sold before it was approved for recreational
use. Though he didn’t drink, Kennedy made sure in 1929 to get a
“Prohibition Service” permit to transport liquor legally for
personal use — roughly four cases (12 gallons) of sherry — and
became part of a widening circle of distributors who provided
alcohol to customers for solely “medicinal purposes.”

With legalization comes competition, and Maier also notes that
it was vital to Kennedy’s economic success to not only be among the
first to legally sell booze post-Prohibition, but that his company
import only the high-end hooch, separating their product from their
competitors in the marketplace:

Like today’s marijuana entrepreneurs looking for farms and
warehouses to grow their carefully cultivated weed, Kennedy sought
a guaranteed supply of top-grade alcohol. Because many U.S.
distilleries had closed because of Prohibition, he orchestrated a
deal to import British whiskey, gin and other liquor to
America.

It may be a while before a presidential election, or even a
congressional election, is tipped by the financial influence of the
marijuana industry, but there can be no doubt that
legal marijuana is big business and growing
exponentially

Former Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D-RI), Joe’s grandson and a noted
drug addict, has
crusaded against pot legalization
on the grounds that the
“mainstreaming” of the drug would harm the mental health of the
nation’s youth and lead to the creation of “Big Marijuana.” What
must he think about the prospect of a political dynasty founded on
pot profits?

For more on the creation of Joesph P. Kennedy’s post-Prohibition
fortune, watch this Reason TV interview with biographer David
Nasaw:

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Former Obama Adviser Admits Gruber Was Behind Obamacare, IRS Wants to Tax British Mayor, KKK and Anonymous Face Off Over Ferguson: P.M. Links

  • Jonathan Gruber“Jonathan Gruber was, back in
    the day in 2009, the guru on health care,”
    says former Obama adviser Steve Rattner
    , contradicting, just a
    tad, his former boss, who denies any knowledge of the troublesome
    Affordable Care Act architect.
  • To head off unilateral presidential action on immigration,
    Republicans are looking at
    cutting off the flow of cash
    that’s already been
    authorized.
  • The Internal Revenue Service says that Boris Johnson, the mayor
    of London, who was born in the United States but hasn’t lived here
    since he was five,
    has to pay American taxes
    . Johnson, who is considered a
    possible future British prime minister, says the IRS can get
    stuffed.
  • A lot of Americans don’t realize that they’re
    in for a tax penalty
    because they haven’t signed up for
    Obamacare-approved health coverage. A lot of other Americans do
    know what’s coming, but would rather pay the damages than knuckle
    under.
  • Even before anybody know what will come out of the grand jury
    in the Michael Brown case, heavy-handed security precautions are

    raising a few eyebrows
    .
  • Germany’s foreign minister is shuttling back and forth trying
    to keep the
    situation in Ukraine from getting even more shoot-y
    .
  • After a bunch of KKK losers threatened “lethal force” against
    Ferguson protesters, they were
    targeted and doxed
    by Anonymous.

Follow Reason on Twitter, and
like us on Facebook. You
can also get the top stories mailed to you—sign up
here
.

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Dollar Drop Sparks BTFEverything-Except-Oil Algo

From its lowest 5-day range in history and near-longest streak of closes above its short-term average, the S&P 500 broke to new record highs today (as did the Dow) above 2,050, leaving every other asset class in the dust (besides USDJPY of course). The incessant push for the stops above 117.00 dragged the S&P higher on no catalyst whatsoever. Treasury yields traded 2-3bps lower on the day (and HY credit spreads widened) in the face of equity exuberance. The USD faded on the day back to unchanged on the week on the back of EUR strength (post-Germany). Gold rallied to $1195 (+0.5% on the week) and silver rose modestly but the USD weakness did nothing for the rest of the commodity complex. Copper was whacked (after China housing data) but the big story is WTI Crude plunged again (-2% on the week) closing just shy of 4-year lows. Russell 2000 and Trannies close in the red for the week.

In summary: Stocks Up, Gold Up, Bonds Up… USD Down, Oil Down, Copper Down ahead of Fed Minutes tomorrow (credit and stocks protected).

Off the Bullard lows, the Nasdaq is now up over 14%, Dow, S&P, & Russell up around 12% and Trannies up near 18%…

 

Despite gains today, Trannies and Small Caps remain red on the week….

 

USDJPY was in charge from the US Open…

 

And while VIX did drop, the decoupling remains clear…

 

Treasury yields and HY credit decoupled remarkedly from stocks at the US open…

 

And don't forget this…

 

The USD fell today as EUR rallied on the back of better than expected German data

 

USDJPY tested up to 117.00 and reversed (twice) but Nikkei is unable to recover the post-GDP losses (yet)

 

Gold & Silver gained on the day (gold up for the week) but oil and copper were slammed…

 

As oil roundtrips once again from Friday's gains

 

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: This is the 23rd day in a row that the S&P has closed above its 5-day moving-average – nearly an all-time high in terms of sustained rallies in all of market history… (h/t MKM's Mike Kransky)

 

Bonus Bonus Chart: Prior to today's push, the 5-day closing range of the S&P is the lowest ever (at 7.7bps) – since 1928 when Bloomberg data began… (h/t @JackDamn)




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Mitch McConnell: USA FREEDOM Act Would Be ‘Tying Our Hands Behind Our Back.’ Yes, That’s Actually the Point of It.

Uncle Sam SpyThe U.S. Senate is scheduled to vote this evening
on a watered down version of the USA FREEDOM Act that aims to rein
in some of the worst domestic surveillance abuses of the National
Security Agency (NSA). The Guardian
reports
:

“This is the worst possible time to be tying our hands behind
our back,” said McConnell, who will become majority leader in
January.

“At the moment, we should not be doing anything to make the
situation worse.”

Libertarianish Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) has said that he
won’t support
the bill because it’s too weak. That is a
mistake. When NSA-enabler McConnell and his minions take over the
leadership of the Senate in January, they will certainly do nothing
to prevent further unconstitutional NSA violations of the privacy
and liberty protections afforded Americans by the Fourth
Amendment.

The Electronic Frontier Foundation
notes
:

The new Senate version of the USA FREEDOM Act would:

-Rein in the NSA’s illegal collection of millions of Americans’
telephone records by amending one of the worst provisions of the
PATRIOT Act, Section 215.

-Create a special advocate position that will serve as an amicus
in the secret surveillance court, arguing for civil liberties and
privacy.

-Provide new reporting requirements about surveillance, so that
the NSA is forced to tell us how many people are actually being
surveilled under its programs, including the program that allows
the NSA to see the contents of Americans’ communications without a
warrant.

The bill is far from what is needed, but it’s better than
nothing.

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60% Of Households Get More Benefits Than They Pay In Taxes

Authored by Mark Perry at AEI via Contra Corner blog,

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) just released its annual report on “The Distribution of Household Income and Federal Taxes” analyzing data through 2011 on American household’s: a) average “market income” (a comprehensive measure that includes labor income, business income, and income from capital gains), b) average household transfer payments (payments and benefits from federal, state and local governments including Social Security, Medicare and unemployment insurance), and c) average federal taxes paid by households (including income, payroll, corporate, and excise taxes).

Some additional analysis and commentary will be provided here that reveal a yet-to-be discussed major implication of the CBO report – almost the entire burden: a) of all transfer payments made to American households and b) of all non-financed government spending, falls on just one group of Americans – the top one-fifth of US households by income.

That’s correct, the CBO study shows that the bottom three income quintiles representing 60% of US households are “net recipients” (they receive more in transfer payments than they pay in federal taxes), the second-highest income quintile pays just slightly more in federal taxes ($14,800) than it receives in government transfer payments ($14,100), while the top 20% of American “net payer” households finance 100% of the transfer payments to the bottom 60%, as well as almost 100% of the tax revenue collected to run the federal government. Here are the details of that analysis.

cbo1

The figures in  the graph above show the amount of federal taxes paid by the average household in each income quintile minus the average amount of government transfers received by those households in 2011. For each of the three lower income quintiles, their average government transfer payments exceeded their federal taxes paid by $8,600, $12,500, and $9,100 respectively, and therefore the entire bottom 60% of US households are “net recipients” of government transfer payments. Averaged across all three lower income quintiles, we could say that the lowest 60% of American households by income received an average transfer payment of about $10,000 in 2011. And because the government has no money of its own, where did those transfer payments come from to finance the “net recipient” households? Where else, but from the top two income quintiles, and realistically almost exclusively from Americans in the highest quintile.

Specifically, the average household in the fourth quintile paid slightly more in federal taxes ($14,800) than it received in transfer payments ($14,100) in 2011, making the average household in the second-highest income quintile a “net payer” household in the amount of $700 in 2011. Basically, households in the fourth income quintile paid enough in taxes to cover their transfer payments, and then made a minor contribution of $700 on average to help cover the transfer payments of the “net recipient” households in the bottom 60% and make a small contribution to the federal government’s other expenditures.

But the major finding of the CBO report is that the households in the top income quintile are the real “net payers” of the US economy. The average household in the top one-fifth of American households by income paid $57,500 in federal taxes in 2011, received $11,000 in government transfers, and therefore made a net positive contribution of $46,500. The second-highest income quintile basically just barely covers its transfer payments, so it’s really the top 20% of “net payer” households that are financing transfer payments to the entire bottom 60% AND financing the non-financed operations of the entire federal government.

Here’s another way to think about the burden of the “net payer” top income quintile. The average household in that income quintile made a contribution net of transfers in 2011 in the amount of $46,500. That would be equivalent to the average household in the top quintile writing four checks: 1) one check in the amount of $8,600 that would cover the average net transfer payments of a household in the bottom quintile, 2) another check for $12,500 to cover the average net transfers of a household in the second lowest quintile, 3) a third check in the amount of $9,100 to cover the average net transfer payments to a household in the middle income quintile, and 4) then finally writing a check for the balance of $16,300 that would go directly to the federal government, which for the households in the quintile as a whole would have covered almost 100% of the non-financed federal government spending in 2011.

So except for a small contribution net of transfers in the amount of $700 from the average household in the fourth quintile, the highest income quintile is basically financing the entire system of transfer payments to the bottom 60% AND the entire operation of the federal government. And yet don’t we hear all the time that “the rich” aren’t paying their fair share of taxes and that they need to shoulder a greater share of the federal tax burden?

Hey, they (the top 20%) are already shouldering almost the entire federal tax burden along with almost the entire system of entitlements and transfer payments! And that’s not “fair” enough already?

cbo2

The chart above shows another way that the CBO data reveal an extremely unequal distribution of government transfer payments and federal taxes by displaying the ratio of “dollars received in government transfers per dollar paid in federal tax revenues” by income quintile in 2011 (these data are from row 8 in the table above). The average household in the lowest quintile received $9,100 in government transfer payments in 2011 and paid only $500 in federal taxes, for a ratio of $18.20 in transfer payments for every $1.00 paid in federal taxes that year.

In contrast, the average household in the top income quintile received $11,000 in government transfers in 2011, but paid $57,500 in federal taxes, for a ratio of 19 cents in government transfer payments per dollar paid in federal taxes. This analysis is a further illustration that the bottom three quintiles are “net recipient” households that received more than $1 in government transfer payments for every $1 paid in federal taxes in 2011, while households in the fourth quintile were minor “net payers” in 2011 and received slightly less than a dollar in transfer payments on average ($0.95) for every $1 paid in federal taxes. “Net payers” in the top quintile received only $0.19 in government transfer payments per $1 paid in federal taxes in 2011.

cbo3

This final chart shows average tax rates by quintile in 2011, both before and after government transfer payments. The blue bars in the chart show the average tax rates by income quintile from the CBO report (Table 4) and are also displayed in the top table above in row 5, calculated by dividing federal taxes paid (row 4) into “Before Tax Income” (row 3, Market Income + Government Transfers).

Adjusting for government transfers received, the brown bars in the chart are calculated by dividing “federal taxes paid minus government transfers received” (row 6 in the table) into Before-Tax Income (row 3), and show average tax rates by income quintile after government transfers. For example, the average “net recipient” household in the lowest income quintile received a “negative tax” payment of $8,600 in 2011, had an average before-tax income of $24,600, for a negative tax rate of 35%.

Reflecting their “net recipient” status, all three lower income quintiles had negative average tax rates in 2011, and only the “net payer” households in the top two income quintiles had positive after-transfer tax rates of 0.7% for the second-highest quintile and 18.9% for the top quintile. This further demonstrates that after transfer payments, households in the bottom 60% are “net recipients” with negative income tax rates, while only the top two “net payer” income quintiles had positive tax rates after transfers in 2011…….




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Watch Nick Gillespie Discuss the Public’s Distrust of Government on CNBC Around 4:10 pm ET Today

Reason.com Editor Nick Gillespie is scheduled to discuss
Americans’ growing distrust of government on CNBC’s Closing Bell today
around 4:10 pm ET.

In his
Daily Beast column last weekend, Gillespie wrote
, “The more we
learn about the government these days, the less we can trust it.
Forget about the simple incompetence that used to fire up
libertarian critics of an expansive government—that’s a complaint
that seems almost quaint given recent and ongoing revelations about
official fraud and deception. It’s looking more and more like the
government tends toward evil and mean-spiritedness, and it’s going
to take real change to reverse eroding faith among citizens.”

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