Sweden: Report “Conclusions Are Frightening” Amid Summer Inferno Of Sexual Assaults

Submitted by Ingrid Carlqvist via The Gatestone Institute,

  • Almost all the perpetrators of sexual assaults who attacked in groups and who have been apprehended, are citizens of Afghanistan, Eritrea and Somalia — three of the four largest immigrant groups in Sweden who fall into the category of "unaccompanied refugee children."

  • A few days later, it turned out that many of the perpetrators who sexually assaulted women at the "Putte i parken" music festival in Karlstad wore the "Don't grope" bracelet.

  • Many people were therefore aghast to learn that the organizers of the Trästocksfestivalen music festival in Skellefteå had decided to arrange free bus rides to the festival for the local "unaccompanied refugee children." They claimed they were "proud to be the first music festival in Sweden that encourages a significant increase of newly arrived migrants in the audience." By the time the Trästocksfestivalen ended, the police counted twelve reported sexual assaults.

  • Apparently, Swedish girls and women should learn to live with being groped and raped — or leave the public space altogether. The latter seems quite in line with what Islamic sharia law prescribes.

In the wake of the New Year's Eve attacks in Cologne, Germany, news broke in Sweden that a large number of sexual assaults against girls and women had occurred at the music festival "We Are Sthlm" [short for Stockholm] in both 2014 and 2015, but had been covered up by both the police and the media. The National Police Commissioner, Dan Eliasson, immediately launched an investigation to find out the scope of the problem.

The results were presented in May, in a report, "The current situation regarding sexual assault and proposals for action" — and the conclusions are frightening. Almost all the perpetrators who attacked in groups and who have been apprehended, are citizens of Afghanistan, Eritrea and Somalia — three of the four largest immigrant groups in Sweden who fall into the category of "unaccompanied refugee children."

Scenes from a Malmö music festival in summer of 2015… Left: Four young men surround and sexually assault a young woman. Right: Police arrest a suspect, as sexual assault victims cry in the background. The photographer reported that Swedish girls were sexually assaulted by groups of young men "of foreign background."

The Police's Department of National Operations (NOA) began their report by going through all the sexual assaults at music festivals, street carnivals or New Year's Eve celebrations that have been reported to the police:

"The complaints filed in 2015 and 2016 showed that girls aged 14-15 were the most vulnerable. The attacks have been perceived differently, depending on the [offender's] modus operandi, but information given in the complaints clearly shows that several of the girls attacked have understandably been devastated and very 'shaky after the incident took place.' Especially shocking and frightening were those attacks carried out by a group, where the victim was not just held down and 'groped', but where the attackers also tried to rip the girl's clothes off.

 

"Most of the attacks were carried out by single perpetrators. In most cases, the attack was carried out in crowded places, from behind, and the perpetrator put his hands under the victim's trousers or under her blouse/sweatshirt and tried to kiss her and hold her down. Due to the struggle to get loose or because the attack happened from behind, it has often been difficult to get a good enough physical description of the suspect to get a positive identification later. In many cases, the victims were standing in an audience in front of a stage, making their way to their friends through a crowd, or standing around with one or more friends when they were attacked."

At least ten cases pertain to so-called taharrush gamea [Arabic for "collective harassment"] — where men in groups choose a victim and attack her together. The report quotes Senni Jyrkiäinen, a scholar at the University of Helsinki, who studies gender relations in Egypt: "Taharrush is Arabic for harassment. If you add 'el-ginsy' (or just ginsy) that means sexual harassment and the word 'gamea' means 'group'."

The police report describes the phenomenon like this:

"In at least ten cases, a lone girl, sometimes around 14-16 years old, sometimes 25-30, was surrounded by several men (from 5-6 up to a large number). In these cases, some of the men held the girl down, while others groped her breasts and body, and in one case some of the men photographed the attack. In some cases, the perpetrators unbuttoned the girl's pants and tried — in some cases succeeded — to pull them down before help arrived. There were also cases where several girls who were part of a group were attacked at the same time by a large gang.

 

"A few suspects have been identified. Those identified are citizens of Afghanistan, Eritrea and Somalia. All investigations into cases in Stockholm and Kalmar from 2014 and 2015 were dropped due to lack of evidence or problems with identifying suspects."

The police quote from several of the complaints filed:

  • A 16-year-old girl was attacked by a large number of males described as "foreign and speaking bad Swedish", who tried to rip her clothes off. Some of the attackers photographed the incident. The girl was on her way home from a party together with her boyfriend when she was attacked. The boyfriend witnessed the incident.

  • Two girls were attacked by a gang of 10-20 men of "African descent", aged 15-20.

  • An attack against a girl in a park went from sexual harassment to a full-fledged rape, committed by a group of men. The men and the girl had attended the same party, and the perpetrators followed her when she left.

  • A 12-year-old girl was attacked, and the following description of the attackers was given: "Four men aged 20-25, who looked Arabic and spoke a foreign language, possibly Arabic, between themselves." A young man passing by intervened and was beaten up.

  • A girl stated that she went into the bushes to urinate, and was sexually attacked by 12 perpetrators. The suspects also stole the victim's wallet. "The sexual assault consisted of an unknown assailant grabbing the victim's buttocks, among other things."

  • A 17-year-old girl left a mall, and was stalked and stopped by three "African guys" who attacked her by squeezing her buttocks so hard her pants ripped.

  • A 13-year-old girl who is in a special education class was approached by "4-5 foreign guys" who spoke Swedish with an accent. The grabbed her one at a time "in places she did not like, such as her buttocks and her breasts."

  • When a girl was waiting for a train, she was surrounded by six youths aged about 15-17, of "foreign descent." They poked her and spoke obscenely and threatened her in Swedish. When the train came, they discontinued the attack.

  • A girl encountered a group of about 10 men aged around 18-20. Four of the men grabbed her sweater and held her by the arm, while three others touched her body and breasts. She screamed for help and tried to resist them, begging them to stop, to no avail. She finally managed to break free.

  • A girl was harassed with foul language on a train, by a group of nine men, around 25 years old, who tried to block her way when she got off the train. None of the men spoke Swedish, the victim said in her complaint, "They may have been from Afghanistan."

  • A girl was surrounded on a train by eight men who had gotten on at the same time. Two of the men started touching her thighs and groping her private parts. She finally took out a can of pepper spray, and the attackers moved away. All the attackers were over 25 years old and of foreign descent.

When it comes to sexual assaults at public swimming pools, the report states that there were 123 reports of such incidents in 2015. 86% of the suspects were younger than 20 years old; most were around 15-16:

"In 80% of the reported cases from public pools, the perpetrators claimed to be or were found to be of foreign descent. Most had no Swedish social security number and the complaints stated that they belonged to groups of boys seeking asylum."

The clear and frightening facts stated by the police report, however, have not left even the tiniest impression on Swedish public debate. Feminists still talk about "men" committing sexual assaults. In January, for example, Karen Austin, former head of a government work group on young men and violence, wrote an article on Swedish public television's debate website on why culture and religion have (almost) no significance when it comes to sexual assaults.

"Do Swedish men have a better set of chromosomes than the rest of the world's men?", she asked rhetorically.

Barbro Sörman, chairperson for the Left Party in Stockholm, wrote on Twitter in early July that it is actually worse when Swedish men rape than when foreign men do:

"The Swedish men who rape do it despite having grown up with gender equality. They make an active choice. That is worse IMO [in my opinion]."

Sörman later regretted her tweet, but maintained that Swedish men must be scrutinized equally:

"You need to look at what makes you choose not to be equal and commit abuse in our society, despite us being equal."

After National Police Commissioner Dan Eliasson read the report he had ordered, , on June 28 he came up with a "solution" that made Swedes gasp: a bracelet with the words "Don't grope" printed on it. Eliasson explained the initiative, saying:

"The police take sexual assaults very seriously, especially when young people are involved. This crime is of course extremely offensive, and all of society needs to work against it. [With the bracelets] we can turn a spotlight on this issue and encourage those affected to report the crime."

A few days later, it turned out that many of the perpetrators who sexually assaulted women at the "Putte i parken" music festival in Karlstad wore the "Don't grope" bracelet. It was the same story at the Bråvalla festival. Lisen Andréasson Florman, operations manager for the non-profit organization, Night Shift (Nattskiftet), had 50 volunteers patrolling the grounds of the Bråvalla festival every night. Despite this, Florman herself was attacked. She told the Swedish news agency, TT, that she was surrounded by three men who acted "totally disgusting."

"And these three men had those 'don't grope' bracelets on. It was completely surreal."

And so it goes. The sexual assaults at this summer's music festivals have come one after another. Many people were therefore aghast to learn that the organizers of the Trästocksfestivalen music festival in Skellefteå had decided to arrange free bus rides to the festival for the local "unaccompanied refugee children."

However, festival chief Nils Andrén could not understand the criticism against the free buses at all, and stated that the festival's motto is "accessibility", and that it might seem expensive to new arrivals to pay for a bus ride to the festival themselves. Apart from offering free bus rides, the organizers also printed up posters advertising the festival in Persian, Arabic and Tigrinya. They claimed they were "proud to be the first music festival in Sweden that encourages a significant increase of newly arrived migrants in the audience."

By the time the Trästocksfestivalen ended, the police counted twelve reported sexual assaults.

The police concluded the report by suggesting various measures to prevent and investigate sexual assaults involving young people at public gatherings. The suggestions are painted in broad strokes:

  • Preventive work through situational crime prevention.?
  • Build a strong foundation for cooperation between municipalities/organizers. ?
  • Implement a recurring model for cooperation regarding the delegation of actions and responsibility. ?
  • Direct measures according to cause-analysis. ?
  • Establishing "joint contact centers" during public events.
  • Make a correct analysis of the situation in time.
  • Take the first steps towards bringing responsible parties to justice by having investigators on the scene.
  • Legal investigation to establish if new criminal modes of operation constitute aggravating circumstances.

Nowhere in the report do the investigators suggest that politicians should take steps to ensure that Sweden accepts fewer asylum seekers from the countries where taharrush gamea is commonplace. Apparently, Swedish girls and women should learn to live with being groped and raped — or leave the public space altogether. The latter seems quite in line with what Islamic sharia law prescribes.

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Saudi Airstrike Kills 7 At Yemen Hospital Run By Doctors Without Borders

Many have forgotten that as US and Russian forces battle the Islamic State, a few hundred kilometers away, Saudi Arabia continues to wage war in Yemen, which is where earlier today a Saudi-led coalition air strike hit a hospital run by Doctors Without Borders (MSF) in the northern Hajja province in Yemen, killing at least seven people and wounding 13. A Reuters witness cited by The Guardian at the scene of the attack in the Abs district, said medics could not immediately evacuate the wounded because war planes continued to fly over the area and first responders feared more bombings.

The facility is run by aid group Medecins Sans Frontières, which confirmed on its official Twitter account that an air strike had occurred but said the number of deaths and injuries remained unclear.

“Yes, we confirm the news. A hospital that is run by MSF was hit by a couple of airstrikes today at 3.45pm local time. Right now we don’t have more information. Medical staff are attending the wounded,” MSF spokesperson Malak Shaher told RT.

MSF says it has supported the hospital since July 2015, adding that 4,611 patients have been treated at the facility. 

The incident comes less than two days after MSF accused the Saudi-led coalition of killing 10 children and injuring 28 more in a strike that hit a school in the Houthi rebel stronghold of Saada in northern Yemen. The coalition denied targeting the school and claimed it hit a rebel camp where underage fighters were trained, AFP reports.

Just last week the US approved the sale of 130 Abrams tanks and other military equipment to Saudi Arabia for $1.2 billion. As most know, Saudi Arabia has been the most generous donor to the Clinton Family Foundation, and as the WSJ reported last week, donors have historicall expected a quid-pro-quo in exchange for their “donations.”

 

As a further reminder, last October, an airstrike by the US government bombed a MSF facility in Afghanistan and prompted the humanitarian organization to accuse Obama of a “War Crime.” That story was quickly buried by the mainstream media.

The Saudi-led coalition has not responded to requests for comment.

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With $128 Billion In Equity Outflows, Barclays Asks “Who’s Buying Stocks” And Gives An Answer

It has been one of the greater paradoxes of the record S&P rally from the February lows: how has the market continued to rise even with unprecedented outflows? In other words, “Whos buying equities?

Overnight, Barclay’s chief equity strategist Keith Parker asks that very question, pointing out that global equities have continued to rally despite $128bn of outflows from equity funds since mid-March. His answer: futures buying (which has traditionally been associated with central bank intervention), whiuh since March ($60bn notional) has surpassed the amount of buying between October 2011 and May 2013,and which together with short-covering has more than offset the outflows.

He notes that with that dramatic shift in positioning basically done, retail and foreign investors are the incremental buyers/sellers of equities; S&P 500 returns have been 49% correlated with shifts in their combined ownership over the last 20 years. Active equity MFs are selling amid large retail redemptions while foreign investors are also selling US equities.

In other words, it may be all up to retail now:

A turn in retail/foreign sentiment and a resumption of equity inflows would get markets back to more of a grind since the positioning-driven bounce has played out, but still elevated active manager positioning leaves the market vulnerable to risks.”

So, to better assess the path for equities and identify potential opportunities, Barclays seeks to better understand the buying dynamics across the investor and corporate landscape and provides the following observations:

  • Since March, $60bn of net buying of US equity futures (notional) and $60bn of flow from short-covering in S&P 500 stocks more than offset the $50bn of outflows from US equity ETFs and MFs. Dynamics outside the US were likely similar. Short interest is back to 2015 lows and the equity HF beta is very high, leaving equities vulnerable.
  • Equity MFs are net sellers given $164bn of redemptions since April, driven by retail. ETF inflows only offset some of the MF outflows. We are concerned that US equity funds are not prepared for a continuing redemption cycle with cash levels low.
  • The rebalance into equities the end of June helped drive stocks higher, fuelled by the $2.5tr jump in the market value of bonds globally YTD ($1tr since May). The bond-equity correlation has risen over the last month, which is a risk to equity returns, and Fed comments at Jackson Hole (August 26) could be pivotal once again.
  • Foreigners have been buying US bonds ($28bn per month) but selling US equities. Weekly data show that Japanese net buying picked up after May and spiked in mid- July, suggesting a return of the foreign buyer. Importantly, while net purchases of equities have fluctuated, gross purchases by Europe and Japan have surged, suggesting that QE may indeed be having a sizeable impact.
  • With $1tr of annual dividends paid out globally and S&P 500 firms buying back over $500bn of stock on net, corporates remain the primary driver of equities. Strong Q1 buybacks likely primed the pump for the rally, but S&P 500 gross buybacks declined by $22bn in Q2 and 12m announcements are down $115bn YTD. Across sectors, actual net buybacks for healthcare and discretionary declined markedly from Q1 to Q2, while those for staples and financials rebounded sharply. Announcements for staples fell considerably, while those for technology rose and financials jumped.
  • Across regions, Europe equity outflows YTD (-$85bn) reversed two-thirds of the post QE inflows and Europe MF positioning is underweight. EM equity MFs are also underweight as inflows have picked up. Across sectors, short-covering has been the primary driver of performance, but recent fund flows have gone to cyclical sector funds as defensives have had outflows. Across styles, small cap MF positioning is underweight as inflows picked up last week.

This brings us to the key disconnect: equity rally despite large equity fund outflows.

To better assess the path for equities, we seek to better understand who has actually been buying through the equity rally. In particular, there is a clear disconnect between the magnitude of the equity rally (MSCI AC World +8% since mid-March) and the magnitude of the outflows from equity ETFs and MFs ($128bn since March). Thus, it raises the questions of who has been the incremental buyer and whether the dynamics are sustainable.

What Barclays finds is simple: Futures buying and short-covering has fueled the rally, specifically “buying of US equity futures and short-covering in single stocks have been a primary source of fuel for the equity rally (~$120bn since March), more than offsetting the $50bn of outflows from US equity ETFs and MFs. Although the analysis below is based on US futures and short interest because of data availability, we would suspect that the same dynamic has played out outside the US as well; that futures buying and short-covering have offset the outflows from equity funds.”

Barclays also notes, that net buying of US equity futures since March ($60bn notional) has surpassed the amount of buying between October 2011 and May 2013 (Figure 2). In less than five months, positioning in futures has seemingly swung as much as it did over the 20-plus month period following the 2011 lows. We would argue that the dramatic shift was more warranted after 2011 given the introduction of extraordinary Fed policy (calendar guidance, Twist, QE3), a pickup in growth after a mid-cycle slowdown and a reduction in risk from Europe. Central bank policy globally has remained extremely accommodative, but the economy is grappling with some later cycle dynamics as the Fed is still trying to hike a second time.

Separately, for S&P 500 stocks, the flow to US equities from short-covering since March has been $60bn, and $26bn since June (Figure 3).

Indeed, short interest has fallen to the lows of last year as perceptions of risks have seemingly reset. Commensurately, our measures show equity HF net exposures are very high (Figure 4) amid the futures buying and shortcovering. The wall of worry, as measured by short interest and HF net exposure, has come down.

 

A quick look at the sellers reveals that active equity mutual funds continue to sell. As a result, Barclays says that one key risk to equities was the acceleration of redemptions from active equity MFs as positioning at funds was very elevated (i.e. low cash levels). Total outflows from equity MFs have been $196bn YTD with a monthly pace of about $40bn since April (Figure 5).

Accordingly, mutual funds have been large net sellers of equities. On the other side, ETF inflows have not been enough to offset the MF outflows. The DOL’s new fiduciary regulation is likely to keep MF redemptions at an elevated pace, and as such Barclays is again concerned that higher risk exposures and lower cash levels at equity MFs make the market more vulnerable (Figure 6). US equity MF beta is 1.4 std above average, levels that have historically coincided with market pullbacks.

 

And while the current trading pattern of increase equity futures buying coupled with a short squeeze, may well continue, Barclays notes that “the rise in the bond-equity correlation is a risk.” To wit:

The S&P 500 and the Barclays 20+yr US bond index have more than doubled since 2005 as yields have fallen with the long bond considerably outperforming since last year (Figure 7). The $2.5tr increase in the market value of bonds globally YTD ($1tr since May) dwarfed the excess cash on the sideline on our measures. The ensuing rebalance into equities around the end of June helped drive stocks higher as rates stayed relatively low. Equity-bond allocations are back to fall 2015 levels while cash ratios have fallen notably as both equities and bonds rallied.

However, as equities and bonds have both moved higher, the correlation between bonds and equities has risen considerably over the last month (Figure 8). The extreme negative correlation allows many multi-asset funds to have higher (and leveraged) exposures to both bonds and equities given the lower volatility of the diversified portfolio. A shift in that correlation could lead to weaker equity returns, as it did last spring and in 2013.

As a reminder, this is a concern voiced by BofA last week which pointed out that a sharp, concurrent move in equities and bonds, in either direction, could unleash another round of “risk parity” deleveraging, and lead to the next market drop.

So if index future buying is set to fizzle, and no more shorts are left to be squeezed, who will keep on buying? To Barclays the answer is two-fold: foreign and retail buyers.

From a demand perspective, the bank believes that foreign and retail investors are the incremental buyers (or sellers) of equities with US institutional equity allocations already at or near the highs and their cash levels fairly low. Against a secular downtrend, household ownership of equities plummeted during market collapses of 2000-2003 and 2007-2009 (Figure 15). On the other hand, flat to higher household ownership through 1996-2000, 2004-07 and since 2009 (or 2012) coincided with market rallies. All the while, foreign investors have been increasing exposure to US equities, particularly the late 1990s and 2008-2014.

Meanwhie, foreign investors have been selling US equities on net since 2014 and foreign ownership levels have edged lower. Household ownership has drifted higher, suggesting that retail investors in the US are buying equities. Figure 16 shows the change in the combined ownership of households plus foreign (x-axis) graphed against S&P 500 yoy returns; US equity returns have been 49% correlated to the combined shifts since 1996.

 

So far we have ignored the elephant in the room: not the marginal, but the base buyer – corporate buybacks. Here is a quick recap on where they stand currently.

The biggest buyers of equities are corporates themselves with S&P 500 net buybacks rising to $500bn over the last four quarters from $375bn in 2013. To put that into perspective, total inflows into equity MFs and ETFs were $159bn in 2013. With about $1tr of dividends being paid out globally, reinvested dividends are also a key source of flow, particularly outside the US where buybacks are less popular. Reinvested dividend payments rose in early August. The drop in IPOs YTD (~50%) and the continuation of M&A have also been supportive from a demand-supply perspective.

 

Based on those S&P 500 companies that have reported buyback data for Q2, gross buybacks fell by $22bn (-15%) from Q1 to Q2 and net repurchases declined by $11bn (-10%) (Figure 16). For the first time since 2012, more S&P 500 companies reduced the amount of buybacks in Q2 than increased the size (Figure 17). However, this followed a strong Q1 when companies seemingly upped repurchases during the selloff. Trailing four quarter buybacks remain stable. We would expect flat to mildly lower growth in Q3 as weak comps roll off. As a percentage of market cap, net buybacks in Q2 are 1.5% annualized, about the same level of 2012-2014 as buybacks have kept pace with market value.

What has been unsaid about all the above is that the one thing that is permitting all of the noted trends, are record low government and corporate yields, which in turn continue to lead to “financial repression” and a forced TINA purchase of equities around the globe. As some strategists have pointed out, as of this moment the only thing that could spoil the part is a pick up in inflation, which however is paradoxical since to a majority of the US population, those who are affected by record high rents and surging health insurance costs, not to mention college tuition costs, inflation is already a major issue. Which is why it is unlikely that the Fed will proactively intervene, even though as Deutsche Bank warned over the weekend, doing that will lead to even more pain for the economy until the disconnect between asset prices and fundamentals will grow so massive, that an entirely new paradigm shift will have to arrive to justify valuations. Then again, considering that GAAP PEs are in the mid-20 range, one can argue that the paradigm has already arrived.

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The Federal Reserve Takes The Blame For This Stock Market Bubble (Video)

By EconMatters


The Big Banks have been regulated to the point of absurdity after the 2008 financial crisis, and when the financial markets crash this time the public will need a new entity to blame. There is nothing but air under stocks right now, very dangerous for investors right here!

© EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube | Email Digest | Kindle   

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Russian Stocks Soar To Record Highs – Up 60% Since White House “Sell” Order

Russia’s MICEX stock index rallied to all-time record highs today. This is likely very disconcerting for The White House as since the March 2014 lows when they issued the following statement: “If I were you, I wouldn’t invest in Russian equities right now,” Russian stocks are up 60% – tripling the 19% gains in the S&P off those lows

In March 2014…

And since then things have not exactly panned out for The White House…

 

The big question is – Is Carney now a buyer of US Stocks?

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“It’s Surreal” – Negative Yielding Debt Rises To Record $13.4 Trillion

Despite expectations that recent, better than expected global economic data (with several prominent setbacks, especially in US and Japanese GDP, as well as the recent Chinese data) which last week sent the Citi global economic surprise index to multi-year highs, would push global government yields at least modestly higher, that did not happen.  Instead, as the FT reports, the value of negative-yielding bonds – both government and corporate – swelled to $13.4 trillion this week up from $13.1 trillion last week, as negative interest rates and central bank bond buying ripple through the debt market.

About a quarter of the global economy now has negative interest rates. 

“It’s surreal,” said Gregory Peters, senior investment officer at Prudential Fixed Income and Morgan Stanley’s former chief global asset strategist, who two months ago was one of the very few to predict the market’s reaction to Brexit when he said that the market was looking at it wrong and urging to “Buy US Assets In Case Of Brexit.” Regarding negative yields he added that “It’s clear that central banks are dominating markets. There’s a race to the bottom. Central banks are the main drivers of this, it’s not fundamental.”

As the FT’s Robin Wigglesworth adds, according to calculations by TwentyFour Asset Management, Gilts make up just 2 per cent of the world’s yield, and eurozone government bonds, despite accounting for 17 per cent of the index’s volume, make up just 2 per cent of the overall yield. Japanese government bonds account for a big fat zero of the yield. The only part of the world where there is some yield left is in the US. US junk bonds, despite accounting for just 4 per cent of the multiverse index, accounts for 18 per cent of the world’s yield.

The message from us at TwentyFour is that if you happen to own yield and you are confident in the solvency of the borrowers, then hold on to it. Yield is going to become ever more scarce, especially if the Fed fails in its mission to raise rates.

The chart below shows the relentless drop in global bond yields:

The Bank of England recently restarted its quantitative easing programme to combat the economic slowdown that is expected to follow the UK’s vote to leave the EU. Japan has already unveiled another dose of government spending, which underwhelmed investors, but some economists expect the US to loosen the reins after the presidential election in November, and a further easing back of austerity in the eurozone.

That has further squashed bond yields, and forced investors to scurry into emerging markets, which as we showed last week received the biggest inflow on record.

Likewise there has been a surge in buying of junk bonds and ultra-long dated government debt to snap up what little remains of potential returns. Ironically, as we noted yesterday, the biggest fear among credit investors in a recent BofA survey is that bonds are now in a bubble, something the underlying data confirms.

 

Money is also spilling into the global stock market, helping the FTSE All-World index to a 5.3 per cent gain this year and pushing all three main US equity indices to a “trifecta” of fresh records this week.

Some investors and analysts are starting to fret that the swelling universe of negative-yielding bonds is distorting global markets and causing more economic damage than gains. “There’s too much acceptance of this,” Mr Peters said. “We’re talking about it in a cavalier way, but that’s not appropriate. It’s extremely distortive, and if we see a pick-up on the fiscal side, or inflation, it will look less comfortable sitting in this negative yielding universe.”

Meanwhile, those who are talking about it have mostly good things to say: after all it is allowing an unprecedented bond issuance spree which is set to break records in both August, and YTD, as companies are set to plow even more billions into levered buybacks and dividends.

Exceptionally subdued borrowing costs and the underwhelming health of the global economy has sparked mounting speculation that countries will begin to ease fiscal policy, spending more money on infrastructure and cutting taxes to reinvigorate growth.

Cited by the FT, Michael Hartnett, Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s chief investment strategist, predicted that there would be a “fiscal flip” in the coming year. “The bigger picture narrative is the policy baton is passing from monetary to fiscal stimulus in 2016-17,” he wrote in a note to clients this week. “We are convinced that the flip from monetary to fiscal policy will drive asset allocation and asset prices in coming quarters.”

So far that has not happened.

Greg Peters also expected an inflection point on government spending in the coming year, driven by the need to reinvigorate economies and encouraged by exceptionally subdued government borrowing costs, which could reverse the slow ballooning of the sub-zero bond yield universe. “If you’re not going to unleash the fiscal hounds with negative rates, why bother? There needs to be more of a relenting of the fiscal reins,” he said. “If 2017 is more of a fiscal year then it makes negative yields more challenging.”

However, as we first explained two months ago, a spike in rates will prove painful for investors who are heavily invested in negative-yielding bonds, expecting that central bank bond-buying will continue to provide a backstop. Fitch Ratings estimated earlier this month that a rapid reversal of yields back to 2011 levels would cause theoretical market losses of up to $3.8 trillion.

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“Nothing Adds Up”

Submitted by Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

There’s a new feature to the Anything-Goes-and-Nothing-Matters economy: Nothing-Adds-Up. The magicians who pretend to measure the growth of GDP (Gross Domestic Product – the monetary value of all the finished goods and services) came up with a second quarter “adjusted” figure of 1.2 percent. That would have to be construed by anyone acquainted with basic econ stats as perfectly dismal. And yet the Bureau of Labor Statistics put out a sparkly Nonfarm Payroll Report of 255,000 for July, way above the forecast 180,000.

There were so many ways to game the jobs number — between people forced to work more than one shit job and the notorious “birth/death model” used to just make up any old number for political purposes — that no one can take this information seriously. Anyway, the GDP number was instantly forgotten and the jobs number launched the stock markets to previously uncharted record altitude.

It’s that time of the year for the hedge fund boys, with their testosterone flowing, to start burning down their house rentals in the Hamptons. And it’s also the time of year for an ever more stressed financial system to go down in flames. And, of course, it’s a presidential election season. Even for one allergic to conspiracy theories, it’s not farfetched to imagine a coordinated effort by central banks — under government direction — to generate Money-Out-Of-Thin-Air (QE) for the purpose of allowing “liquidity” flows to end up in US equity and bond markets in order to paint a false picture of “recovery” so as to insure the election of Hillary Clinton. I think that is exactly behind the recent money-printing activities by the Japanese and European Central Banks, and the Bank of England.

Why would it end up in US markets? For bonds, because the Euro and Japanese bond sovereign yields are in sub-zero territory and the BOE just cut its prime rate lower than the US Federal Reserve’s prime rate; and for stocks, because the value of the other three currencies is sliding down and the dollar has been rising — so, dump your falling currency for the rising dollar and jam it into rising US stocks. It’ll work until it doesn’t.

Why do this for Hillary? Because she represents the continuity of all the current rackets being used to prop up belief in the foundering business model of western civilization. If she doesn’t get into the White House there may be no backstopping of the insolvent banks and bankrupt governments and a TILT message will appear in the sky. That TILT message is likely to appear anyway because, remember,  the authorities are only pretending that they can manage events. In fact, all of their “management” strategies and shenanigans only insure the further distortion of the basic operating system, which is already so far out of whack from twenty years of previous management efforts that nothing in banking and markets really works anymore.

Companies don’t make money, despite rising share prices. No one in his right mind buys bonds with negative yields – that promise to pay back less over time – so governments have to pretend to buy them. (In fact, they don’t so much “buy” them as simply extinguish them by playing three-card-monte with national treasuries.) And, of course, the masses of people in all these nations – including the patsy USA – sink ever deeper into penury every month.

The release of tension is being felt in the ground game of politics where outsider candidates here and abroad are rising on a tide of rage and resentment. The fecklessness and stupidity of the elites has been epic, sacrificing everything to maintain the illusion of normality. Nothing is normal and “the people” are finally onto it. Sadly, it looks as if both politics and finance are veering toward crack-up simultaneously.

The daisy-chained Too-Big-To-Fail banks are already choking on the suicide bolus of derivatives.

 

The equity markets are one algo accident away from cratering.

 

The bond markets are a sick joke.

 

And Hillary may win the booby prize of presiding over the smoldering wreckage of it all.

When it happens, she will have no idea what to do.

via http://ift.tt/2aOcl8R Tyler Durden

Convicted Spy Is Using Hillary’s “Lack Of Intent” Defense To Seek Leniency

Back on July 5, when the FBI’s James Comey disclosed the extened details of Hillary Clinton’s home email server and her extensive deletion and disseminetion of classified materials, yet decided not to recommend charges as her action lacked “intent” we pointed out to a nearly identical case, one involving naval reservist Bryan Nishimura, who was charged and pled guilty to “unauthorized removal and retention of classified materials.”

To be sure, the FBI’s curious conclusion came at a time that may have been too late to save Nishimura, but as The Hill reports, a Navy sailor who has pleaded guilty to espionage charges for photographing classified areas of a nuclear submarine is citing Hillary Clinton’s email setup in an effort to avoid jail time. Lawyers for 29-year-old Kristian Saucier told a federal court in Connecticut on Friday that the Justice Department’s decision not to press charges against Clinton, despite the existence of classified material on more than 100 messages on her machine, was one of several cases that should compel a reduced sentence.

Most recently, Democratic Presidential Candidate and former Secretary of State Hilary [sic] Clinton … has come under scrutiny for engaging in acts similar to Mr. Saucier,” his legal team claimed.
The FBI has criticized Clinton’s “homebrew” setup, attorney Derrick Hogan noted, “however, the FBI recently recommended Mrs. Clinton not be brought up on any charges as she lacked ‘intent.’”

Amusingly, Saucier pleaded guilty to possessing just six sensitive photographs, Hogan added, “far less than Clinton’s 110 emails.” Further, his attorney added that “Mr. Saucier pled guilty to [a legal prohibition] which does not require intent.

“Wherefore, it will be unjust and unfair for Mr. Saucier to receive any sentence other than probation for a crime those more powerful than him will likely avoid.”

As the attached filing shows, Clinton’s case is listed as just one of several in which officials were either not charged or given relatively light sentences for their crimes. Circumstances surrounding the former secretary of State were also different than those for Saucier, who acknowledged that he was aware that the pictures he took were classified. Clinton has maintained that she did not believe any of the information she receive via email ought to have been protected.

But the citation is likely to inflame critics of the Democratic presidential nominee, who they warn exposed a two-tiered process of justice after federal prosecutors announced they would not indict her or her senior aides. “We believe that you have set a precedent, and it is a dangerous one,” House Oversight Committee Chairman Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah) scolded FBI Director James Comey during a hearing in July. 

Before a federal court Saucier in May, Saucier admitted he took cellphone photos of sensitive portions of a submarine in 2009. The photos were not discovered until his cellphone was found in a dumpster three years later.

He is set to be sentenced on Friday. Federal sentencing guidelines suggest he be put in prison for up to 6.5 years, but Saucier’s attorneys are claiming he should instead be given probation. “Mr. Saucier has new responsibilities as a father, husband and grandfather, and has grown out of the mistakes he made in his early twenties,” his legal team claimed on Friday. “Therefore, at 29 years old, any sentence of confinement will be greater than necessary.

We look forward to the sentencing for yet another confirmation that there is one set of rules for future US presidents, and another for everyone else.

The full filing is below

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Meet The Spornosexual: How A Weak Economy Sparked The Selfie-Generation

Poor economies impact countries in a number of detrimental ways including higher rates of poverty, unemployment and chronic disease. Now, a new study shows the bad economy is to blame for another unfortunate trend: the rise of the selfie generation and "spornosexuality."

As PlanetFreeWill.com's Joseph Jankowski reports, according to a new study from the University of East Anglia (UEA), young men are seeking value through their bodies rather than traditional value creation because of poor economic conditions.

Since the 2008 financial crisis, more men have been taking to social media to post images of their fit bodies, says the study’s author, Dr Jamie Hakim.

This trend has been labeled ‘spornosexuality’, a combination of ‘sports star’ and ‘porn star’. It was coined in July 2014 by media commentator Mark Simpson, in an article in The Daily Telegraph about the rise of men attending the gym primarily for reasons of appearance, rather than for health or fitness.

"One of the most interesting aspects of this development is the power-shift of a segment of society who have historically defined themselves through their mind, whilst at the same time defining those they have subordinated – women, gay and working-class people – through their bodies,” said Dr Jamie Hakim.

 

“The former group has historically been employed as high-paid decision-makers, whilst the latter have had to rely on their bodies for low- or no-pay work, such as manual and domestic labour, slavery and sex work.”

The study, titled ‘The Spornosexual’: the affective contradictions of male body-work in neoliberal digital culture’, was published on Thursday in the Journal of Gender Studie.

“Austerity has eroded young men’s traditional means of value-creation so they have become increasingly reliant on their bodies as a means of feeling valuable in society,” Dr. Hakim continued.

 

“In theoretical terms, so-called ‘spornosexuality’ is an embodied response to material changes brought about by neoliberal austerity.”

The study found that the amount of 16 to 25-year-old men attending the gym between 2006 and 2013 significantly increased.

Hakim denies the growing interest in bodybuilding as simply a new craze.

“The rise of men going to the gym and sharing images of their worked-out bodies began around 2008, coinciding with the intensification of neoliberalism that occurred in response to the 2008 economic crash and the following austerity measures,” Hakim said. “This is no coincidence.”

 

“There is a correlation between the rise of young men fashioning muscular bodies and sharing them online, and the austerity measures experienced by their generation,” the study’s author says.

 

“These economic tactics are widening inequality, especially for those born after 1980, with prohibitively high house prices, the loss of secure long-term contracts, tuition fees and other hurdles to economic security.”

Highlighting the lack of opportunity for young men since the 2008 crash, the Congressional Budget Office found that 1 out of 6 young men inside the United Sates in 2014 were jobless or incarcerated.

Breitbart reported back in May:

According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), out of the 38 million young men in the U.S. in 2014, 16 percent were jobless (5 million or 13 percent) or incarcerated (1 million or 3 percent). The share of young men without a job or in prison has increased substantially since 1980, when just 11 percent of young men fit into either category.

At the end of last year, it was reported that 498,000 young people between the ages of 16-24 were unemployed in the UK.

In a shocking recent study by Pew Research, which highlights the economic struggle young men, and millennials in general, are going through, it was found that for the first time in 130 years Americans ages 18-34 are more likely to live with their parents than in any other living situation.

As more and more good paying jobs leave the United States, it can come as no surprise that young men, who once sought validation through the acquisition of labour, starting a family, and buying a home, are struggling to find themselves and traditional manhood.

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