Being educated above your intelligence in Finance

How many people in the financial services industry understand how the financial system works?

We’ve all experienced it, we are dealing with someone who has all sorts of masters degrees, PhD’s, and doesn’t know the Federal Reserve is a private corporation, and even doesn’t know the product their company is selling.

In the spirit of professionalism, we must keep these quotes anonymous, but certainly if you have survived long enough in Finance or read the Financial news regularly, you will not need any references because you’ve probably heard it before.

“I don’t know Math, I know Finance.  If I wanted to study Math, I would have been a Scientist”

excuse me?

“I’m having some computer issues, I have to wait for my I.T. guy to fix it.” -Trader

“I just invest in companies that I understand.  I drink Coke.”

 

“By proposing the development of algorithmic trading systems based on genetic algorithms, you have insulted the Lord Jesus Christ, and I must leave this meeting”

 

“You may understand the markets, but you know nothing, until you have traded on the floor of the NYSE” (this was in the late 90’s)

 

“I see these documents you have shown me about the Fed being private, but if I accept these facts about the Fed, I would rather die.  As far as I’m concerned the Fed is part of the government.  Why do you think it’s called ‘Federal’ Reserve?”

 

“Foreign futures is Forex” -Regulator (who have since changed their wording)

Comparatively, in many other industries, even low level workers have an intimate knowledge of the smallest detail.  The car industry is a great example (although there are many others).  Many car  mechanics can completely disassemble and reassemble most makes and models even from different eras; where parts are different or unavailable, they become innovative.  And then there is the final test; does the car start?

Wall Street seems to be at the other end of this comparative spectrum.  How many brokers could disassemble and reassemble the entire business with all its working parts?  Many top level executives even fail to do this.

But we can say that Finance is one of few industries with highly trained and educated workers.  Because of regulatory requirements for education, company policies that extend this education further, nearly all workers are extremely educated.  They are trained what to say, what not to say, down to the level that scripts are memorized when speaking by phone, and any deviation from script wording can bring harsh consequences.  

Then why does there seem to be so much incompetence on Wall Street?

First, we must realize that Wall Street typically has a top down pyramid structure as an information policy.  A few people at the top know everything, and farther down the management chain you go to the bottom dwellers, they know less and less.  This is somewhat understandable due to the fact that Finance is largely an information business, and proliferating any trade secrets or divulging info about a trading strategy or investment strategy could impact the strategy.  

But there are consequences for such a structure, most obvious in financial frauds, where only a few top executives are aware that the big account in the Caymans is actually a fictitious account, or that the 100m of reg cap at US Bank doesn’t exist, and the bank account statement being sent to regulators is a bad Photoshop job.  

Another consequence is that if the leaders who have all the info are incompetent or make mistakes, they are left to fend for themselves, and could potentially bring down the whole company.

From a psychological perspective, one can say many in Finance are educated above their intelligence.

People may study Finance and dream of Wall Street for the similar reasons Hollywood attracts young wanna be starlets; they watch too many movies and dream of glory, fame, and money.  That’s fine, it’s a free country, and as many a Communist said “Capitalists will sell the noose to hang themselves.”  But what type of quality are we left with?  To use Wall Street expression “You can’t put lipstick on a pig” – nor can you increase the intelligence of a human being.  You can educate them; but based on their IQ they have a limit, as we all do.  And it’s impossible to educate someone (anyone) beyond their limit to understand.

As with any growth industry, and Wall Street has had an ‘epoch’ of growth (even considering market crashes), new companies form, and people are hired.  But do we really need a sea of well educated but yet incompetent workers?  How many people does it really take to manage a bank?  Certainly not 50,000.  With the advent of computing, the only task that cannot be automated is talking to other people (whether by phone or in person).  But do we really need this?  Oh we do, sorry I forgot about sales.  See, our strategy is really a bunch of toxic waste, and we need young ambitious kids on the phone selling this crap.  That can’t be automated.  But look where we would have been if sales didn’t exist, there may have been no .com bubble, no real estate bubble, no sub-prime bubble.

The point is, having a sea of workers who are educated above their intelligence in an industry that can collapse the world economy, ruin countries, corporations and families, and cause huge economic devastation, is very dangerous!

But in a society based on lies (marketing) – better lies that are in compliance with regulations, are seen as a sign of strength to the HR department (get more sales) whereas an honest analyst whose warning of a real estate crash in 2005 is laughed at, teased, and maybe even fired.

To make a ‘positive’ comment from the other side of the spectrum, there are a handful (in percentage terms) who really understand how the financial system works.  Some are in Academia (very few!), some in trading, and some from other fields.  We see them on the internet, on Zero Hedge, and occasionally on mainstream financial media.  But they are far the minority.  And many are behind the scenes, people we do not know and may never know.  

The problem with this incompetent mass is that since they do not fully understand the system, they do what they know how to do (which is usually not very smart).  This is bad for the organization they work for, and it’s bad for the financial system as a whole.  

The solution is that the stewards of the financial system should not be the “Kings of Wall Street” living in palaces, they should be Philosopher Kings as according to Plato.  They should have all resources available to them, but paid only a salary for an average existence (no bonuses!).  The entire model of private for profit banks, competing in the free markets with financial products, sitting opposite ‘regulators’ with Congress in between, is not only a farce, it’s a system based on conflict of interest.  This design itself is a conflict of interest, when these for profit banks are Washington’s largest financial supporters.  The rotating door of executives turn regulator ensures that there is no regulation going on.  

“Oh we can get an FCM license immediately, we just need to get to XXX XXXX and grease him up a bit” – Anonymous securities attorney

A system based on conflict only breeds conflict, as the saying goes “In a crooked environment, crooks are the most honest people.”  Is it possible to have an honest financial system?  Of course it is!  There are hundreds of historical examples of financial systems based on real money (not ever expanding debt based fiat currency).  They even exist today, although the dominant system is that controlled by the world’s central banks.  But the most amazing thing about such an honest system based on real value, banks could still compete in this system for a profit (although it would be more difficult because they would not have a complete monopoly, nor access to create as much free money as they need).  But this is far from a socialist idea.  In fact, there are hundreds of potential political and economic systems, which have nothing to do with Capitalism or Communism.  In fact these 2 words have become so overused in the wrong context, and used for social programming, they are synonymous in the West with good and evil, also a mis-characterization, because you have almost infinite number of types of Capitalism, which is also different in every culture.  

For generations we have been programmed to a belief system where only 2 options exist; good and evil, Coke and Pepsi, Republican and Democrat, Capitalism and Communism (or Socialism if you want).  This is very deceptive and completely untrue (although they have nearly made it true because everyone believes it so now it is our reality).  There are hundreds of economic and political systems that have been used and tested in practice, and countless others that have been researched and theorized.

One example of an economic system that is not very well known is that of Endogenous money.

Endogenous money creation or destruction is the concept that each participant in the economy has their own version of a ‘printing press’ for money. This concept was explained by Irving Fisher in his treatise on The Theory of Interest (1930) in terms of the value of currency being affected by two (potentially opposing) movements – expected growth in the money supply reducing the real purchasing power of money and expected increases in productivity increasing the real purchasing power of money.

While the concept of each of us having our own central bank seems almost ridiculous, consider how Bitcoin has changed the way we think about money.  Bitcoin is not backed by any central bank, and while not the private money of an individual, it was created and designed by private citizens (not central bankers) and is now being used as a payment system and investment by millions around the world.  Another interesting example is currency based on barter, or a system that simply tracks economic transactions between participants using a credit system.

local exchange trading system (also local employment and trading system or local energy transfer system; abbreviated to LETS or LETSystem) is a locally initiated, democratically organised, not-for-profit community enterprise that provides a community information service and record transactions of members exchanging goods and services by using the currency of locally created LETS Credits.

The only way to achieve a new financial system that is sustainable (and more fair), is through financial education and training.  If the majority of the public knew what goes on at their financial institution, they probably wouldn’t participate.  Some have even speculated that Cocaine was the major cause of the financial crisis.  More likely it was stupidity, but certainly regular Cocaine use doesn’t help you make good financial decisions.  

George Bush Sr. was once quoted as saying: “If the American people knew the Damage we have done to their Country, they would hang us from the nearest lamp post.” 

The real intelligence in a fair and honest financial system is that we wouldn’t need regulators, we wouldn’t need sales people (they can sell cars, or we can pay them to stay at home and not bother us with their telemarketing) and there wouldn’t be an ongoing financial crisis.  We have technology today that can manage such a system very efficiently and cheaply.  The modern financial system as it is today has it’s roots over 500 years ago.  It might be time for an update.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/KtnZIM1HE-c/story01.htm globalintelhub

Clarity On The BTFDtv Appearance By @TalkToSkirt

We’re keeping this simple, I had nothing to do with that atrocity that happened on BTFDtv New Years Eve into New Years morning.  In fact, I’ve cut my connections to the network because of it.  If I return, it will be only because of a massive alteration in the power structure and ability of single people to make reputation damaging decisions.

I was appalled to wake up this morning and see what one man has done to BTFDtv in one night.  As many of you understand, it takes a very strong will to fend of the wave of egotism that can manifest itself in click-rates and page views.  I assure you, I fully expected a legit conversation to broadcasted to our faithful viewers who stuck around through the blackouts, shitty video/audio, and other problems, and not this:

This isn’t about the top layer sex bullshit either, this about a product we’ve created and I’ve worked very hard to produce with the help and assistance of many gifted folks.  We’ve all helped each other build this network.  However, I will not allow those who trust me and the Calibrated Confidence brand to perceive me as affiliated in any of this low-brow titillating financial bullshit post The Wolf of Wall Street porno.  If you were as disgusted as I was at what happened, make sure to let the “benevolent dictator” knows your thoughts.  The problem has become now that instead of focusing on what you all want from BTFDtv, those in control have fallen to devilish motives attached to over-valuation on click-rate relevance.  Credibility goes much farther than statistics on a website.  Greed blinds people and causes them to view their audience as a revenue source and not a relationship.

I’m beyond disappointed in those I thought I could trust and extremely thankful to them for the sharp reminder of that I need to keep a more keen eye on those “close” to me.  What really pissed me off is that for 100 fucking views in BTFDtv’s precious click-bait box, we could have had the video I did with @Not_Jim_Cramer on ZeroHedge but we didn’t because some of the mob reached out to me concerned about what was happening with this Skirt bullshit.  So understand that BTFDtv has caused a broad audience similar to yourselves to miss out on the knowledge of what was discussed in that video (which I embedded below).  

I apologize to those of you who relied on BTFDtv for content and trusted me to always affiliate with those who had you guys in the forefronts of their minds.  Calibrated Confidence as a brand has learned a great deal from the first day of 2014.  Stay tuned here as I’ll stream in Special Reserve 200 Proof and hook you guys up with a tab at the top of this site.

Calibrated Confidence Interview @Not_Jim_Cramer

Skip the blathering and go to 7:06 for the interview

Again, I had no say or anything to do with what you saw on New Years Eve, this is the type of content Calibrated Confidence produces.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/GENLH9YxuBs/story01.htm CalibratedConfidence

Marc Faber ‘Congratulates’ Ben: “Well Done, Mr. Bernanke!”

In a little under four minutes, Marc Faber explains to Fox Business’ Dagen McDowell all that is wrong with the Central Planners ‘current plan’. From a re-bubbled housing ‘recovery’ pricing real buyers out of the market (“homes do not offer a great opportunity today“) to forced-renters paying increasing amounts of their stagnant wages, and the small percentage of ordinary Americans who actually benefit from a rising stock market, reducing their disposable income to which Faber sarcastically rants “well done, Mr. Bernanke.” His advice, be diversified, don’t BTFATH in stocks, and physical gold is always a good insurance.

 


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/u7zuwOvbnp0/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Marc Faber 'Congratulates' Ben: "Well Done, Mr. Bernanke!"

In a little under four minutes, Marc Faber explains to Fox Business’ Dagen McDowell all that is wrong with the Central Planners ‘current plan’. From a re-bubbled housing ‘recovery’ pricing real buyers out of the market (“homes do not offer a great opportunity today“) to forced-renters paying increasing amounts of their stagnant wages, and the small percentage of ordinary Americans who actually benefit from a rising stock market, reducing their disposable income to which Faber sarcastically rants “well done, Mr. Bernanke.” His advice, be diversified, don’t BTFATH in stocks, and physical gold is always a good insurance.

 


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/u7zuwOvbnp0/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Japanese Population Plunges By Record In 2013

Given that young people in Japan have lost interest in sex, with 45% of Japanese women 16-24 “not interested in or despise sexual contact,” it is perhaps not entirely surprising that, as Japan Times reports, Japan’s population fell by a record 244,000 in 2013. This further raises concerns over an ever-dwindling workforce that supports an ever-growing number of pensioners, with the proportion of people aged over 65 reaching nearly 40% by 2060.

 

Via Japan Times,

An estimated 1,031,000 babies were born in 2013, down about 6,000 from a year earlier, the ministry said.

 

On the other hand, around 1,275,000 people died — up about 19,000 from the previous year, the highest annual rise since World War II.

 

As a result, the natural population decline came to a record 244,000, the ministry said, beating the previous highest fall of 219,000 in 2012.

 

Japan’s population totalled 126,393,679 as of March 31, down 0.21 percent from a year earlier, according to a government figure.

 

It has continually declined since 2007 by natural attrition — deaths minus births.

 

Japan is rapidly greying, with more than 20 percent of the population aged 65 or over — one of the highest proportions of elderly people in the world. The country has very little immigration and any suggestion of opening its borders to young workers who could help plug the population gap provokes strong reactions among the public.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/Cm4LfRgk69c/story01.htm Tyler Durden

JPMorgan Presents “The Era Of Central Bank-Driven Equity Rallies”

Back in April, when the S&P500 was at 1580 we forecast that the price target on the S&P500 for the global central bank syndicate was 1900. The S&P closed the year at 1850, just barely missing said target, which was merely a function of the correlation between the stock market and the straight-line, diagonally expanding consolidated central banks’ balance sheet (yes, it is a “market” for idiots, but such is life under central planning… while it lasts).

Incidentally, there was a time as recently as two years ago, when saying the Fed is merely propping up stocks, was blasphemous in polite economist circles. Since then even the most tenured economists (not to mention the US Treasury) have finally admitted the truth, and in the process none other than JPMorgan itself has just issued a chart titled “The era of central bank-driven equity rallies.

So in the spirit of the holidays, and since nobody even pretends anymore that Mr. Yellen‘s only mandate is to push stocks higher, will the Fed finally be kind enough to release a newsletter each morning laying out where the S&P will close that day? The Fed could use the monthly $29.95 subscription fees toward paying for Kevin Henry’s et al Bloomberg terminal and REDI fee.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/NjyzpCGFTWw/story01.htm Tyler Durden

JPMorgan Presents "The Era Of Central Bank-Driven Equity Rallies"

Back in April, when the S&P500 was at 1580 we forecast that the price target on the S&P500 for the global central bank syndicate was 1900. The S&P closed the year at 1850, just barely missing said target, which was merely a function of the correlation between the stock market and the straight-line, diagonally expanding consolidated central banks’ balance sheet (yes, it is a “market” for idiots, but such is life under central planning… while it lasts).

Incidentally, there was a time as recently as two years ago, when saying the Fed is merely propping up stocks, was blasphemous in polite economist circles. Since then even the most tenured economists (not to mention the US Treasury) have finally admitted the truth, and in the process none other than JPMorgan itself has just issued a chart titled “The era of central bank-driven equity rallies.

So in the spirit of the holidays, and since nobody even pretends anymore that Mr. Yellen‘s only mandate is to push stocks higher, will the Fed finally be kind enough to release a newsletter each morning laying out where the S&P will close that day? The Fed could use the monthly $29.95 subscription fees toward paying for Kevin Henry’s et al Bloomberg terminal and REDI fee.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/NjyzpCGFTWw/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Like The Year The Weak Worked

Throughout 2013, the distortions created by intervention in once-free markets have left many scratching their heads. The interventions have worked – almost faultlessly – but for them to do so has required the suspension of one belief system (economic reality) and the adoption of another – namely, that everything will be OK because … well, just because. Can the fantasy persist into 2014? Sadly, Grant Williams states "Yes. It most certainly can." Will it continue into 2014? Most likely. Will this new belief system become the new economic reality? Not a chance.

 

 

2013 was another year brought to you by the letters Q and E. Quantitative easing spanned the entirety of 2013 and, as was no doubt intended, the market, the public at large, and most certainly just about every single inhabitant of Capitol Hill became so inured to the creation of $85 billion each and every month that the enormity of that policy dissolved from the collective consciousness like early morning mist.

But amidst all the commentary and the debate surrounding QE, most people lost sight of what it actually is — even when we received the much anticipated news in December that there would, in fact, be a Taper after all.

Before we get to the Taper that happened, though, it's important to revisit the one that didn't.

On May 22nd, 2013, Ben Bernanke, in a question and answer session, said the following:

We're trying to make an assessment of whether or not we have seen real and sustainable progress in the labor market outlook. If we see continued improvement and we have confidence that that is going to be sustained, then we could in — in the next few meetings — we could take a step down in our pace of purchases.

Boom!

The consequences of that statement — and in particular, the last 20 words — reverberated around the financial world and wrought havoc in all sorts of weird and wonderful places. (In a presentation entitled "A Confederacy of Dunces" that I gave to a small group in Spain in late June, after Bernanke's comments, I pointed out the effects of the Taper threat and pinpointed some of those weird and wonderful places.)

The effect Ben's pronouncement on both the S&P 500 and the US 10-year yield were immediately obvious:

The S&P dropped a quick 6%, and 10-year rates (seen inverted in the chart above) spiked from below 2% to 2.6% — a big move.

But some of the other instruments affected by Bernanke's carefully floated idea weren't quite so readily apparent. Nonetheless, they demonstrated just how pernicious and far-reaching the tendrils of QE had grown.

Bernanke also committed the cardinal error of announcing that QE would END once unemployment fell to 7% — a statement he had to back away from, rather embarrassingly, as the slump in the participation rate brought 7% unemployment closer, rather faster than expected:

(WSJ, Dec 6, 2013 ): Back in June, when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke laid out a tentative timeline for winding down the bond-buying program, he said 7% is where the Fed expected the unemployment rate to be when it ended the purchases. He said central bank officials expected that to occur around mid-2014. Friday's jobs report showed the jobless rate hit that level in November, and the Fed hasn't even started scaling back the program.

 

The jobless rate for May, the latest data Mr. Bernanke had when he laid out that guide post, stood at 7.6%. Then it fell much more quickly than Fed officials expected, dropping to 7.4% in July and 7.3% in August.

 

In September, the Fed surprised many market participants and held the quantitative easing program steady. At his press conference after that meeting, Mr. Bernanke made no mention of the 7% guidepost he'd set out a mere three months earlier. When asked about it, he downplayed the importance.

 

"There is not any magic number that we are shooting for," he said. "We're looking for overall improvement in the labor market."

In short, the trial balloon floated to gauge potential reaction to a $20 bn per month Taper was a disaster, and that meant that when the September FOMC meeting came around, the governors in the voting seats just couldn't bring themselves to pull the trigger.

Oopsies!

When the minutes of the October meeting were released in November, it became clear that the FOMC, lessons duly learned, were going to try out the Taper again — perhaps in December:

(Fox Business): Federal Reserve policy makers are still struggling to find the right message for conveying to investors their plans for scaling back their easy-money policies, notes from the Fed's October meeting reveal.

 

The minutes, released Wednesday, also said members of the policy-setting Federal Open Markets Committee could see the central bank trimming its $85-billion-a-month bondbuying program at "one of its next few meetings."

If at first you don't succeed…

But they had clearly realized that even a $20 bn Taper was going to be taken poorly by the markets, and so the FOMC (and in particular its soon-to-be-retired chairman) needed to pull off a delicate balancing act.

On the one hand, Bernanke would want to leave the Fed with the wind-down of his expansionist policy underway so that he would have the kind of plausible deniability that history has gradually been stripping away from Alan Greenspan. ("Hey, don't blame ME. We were exiting QE when I left office!") On the other hand, though, he wouldn't want to hand Janet Yellen an impossible situation.

The solution?

Taper Lite!

"All the goodness of the Taper with no bitter aftertaste!"

… and the markets, after the scares in May and June, LOVED it!!

Errrr … sorry to spoil the party, but a couple of things here

Grant Williams' full letter explains why below…

Ttmygh Dec 30 2013


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/UgTINtROOEA/story01.htm Tyler Durden

The Biggest Investment Opportunities in 2014 Will Be…

Tomorrow is the first day for market trading in 2014.

 

In the very short-term, financial institutions will be repositioning their portfolios to start the year. This will likely mean more buying power in the markets.

 

The markets have broken out of the large wedge pattern formed in 2011-2012 and are entering a blow off top.

 

 

Wall Street is decidedly bullish now. There is no telling how high this rally can go based on momentum. Manias are always more powerful than one expects. And this is nothing if not a mania (investors are buying stocks at a rate not seen since the Tech Bubble).

 

Investors who choose to ride this momentum should be cautious. The market is already overbought and overextended. If I were to liken it to anything it would be 1999. We all know how stocks did 1-2 years out from that.

 

And while the US is taking off, there are other, potentially much larger opportunities outside of it. Take a look at the emerging market space. We are on the verge of breaking out of a massive triangle pattern, much like the one formed by US stocks in 2011-2012.

 

 

If we do breakout of this pattern to the upside, the move could be extreme (possibly as high as 60).

 

I believe the biggest opportunities for investors will be outside the US in 2014. Now is the time to look for greater diversification.

 

For a FREE Special Report outlining how to profit from bear market crashes and bull market runs, swing by: http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/special-reports.html

 

Best Regards

Phoenix Capital Research 

 


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/wYDgeMwSBKw/story01.htm Phoenix Capital Research

But the Progressives Told Us Abenomics Would Be Great for Japan

Submitted by Robert Murphy of the Ludwig von Mises Institute of Canada,

When newly elected Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe promised new deficit spending and pedal-to-the-metal monetary inflation, the progressive Keynesians were excited. And indeed, debasing the yen seemed to work for a few months, with analysts saying US policymakers should follow Japan’s lead. Yet now Japan’s recovery seems to be collapsing, leading its Cabinet to approve yet another “stimulus” package. Does anyone else have a sense of deja vu?

Abe has been Prime Minister of Japan since December 2012. You can see what has happened to the Yen/USD exchange rate under his brief tenure:

 

During Abe’s first year in office, the yen has fallen about 20 percent against the US dollar. Yet Abenomics was hailed as a good thing by several progressive Keynesians early on. For example, in May 2013 Paul Krugman held up “Japan the Model,” writing:

[T]he ongoing economic experiment…is so important, not just for Japan, but for the world.

 

In a sense, the really remarkable thing about “Abenomics” — the sharp turn toward monetary and fiscal stimulus adopted by the government of Prime Minster Shinzo Abe — is that nobody else in the advanced world is trying anything similar. In fact, the Western world seems overtaken by economic defeatism.

 

So, how is Abenomics working? The safe answer is that it’s too soon to tell. But the early signs are good…

 

The good news starts with surprisingly rapid Japanese economic growth in the first quarter of this year — actually, substantially faster growth than that in the United States, while Europe’s economy continued to shrink. You never want to make too much of one quarter’s numbers, but that’s the kind of thing we want to see.

 

Meanwhile, Japanese stocks have soared, while the yen has fallen. And, in case you’re wondering, a weak yen is very good news for Japan because it makes the country’s export industries more competitive.

 

So the overall verdict on Japan’s effort to turn its economy around is so far, so good. And let’s hope that this verdict both stands and strengthens over time. For if Abenomics works, it will serve a dual purpose, giving Japan itself a much-needed boost and the rest of us an even more-needed antidote to policy lethargy.

Other progressive Keynesians made similar pronouncements with even more confidence. For example, Matt Yglesias wrote in May: “Japan’s economic reform…has important lessons for us. Japan fell into the trap of prolonged high unemployment and zero interest rates long before the United States did. It’s in many ways fitting that they now seem to be leading the path forward to recovery.”

For a third example, in August Dean Baker wrote:

Fortunately for the Japanese people, the folks currently running their economy are more interested in sound economic policy than pushing scare stories about debt and deficits. Rather than rushing to reduce the deficit, Japan’s new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, went in the opposite direction. He deliberately increased spending to create jobs.

 

…While we are still in the early days of Abe’s program (he just took office at the end of 2012), the preliminary signs are positive. The economy grew at a 2.4% annual rate in the second quarter, after growing at a 3.6% rate in the first quarter. By comparison, GDP in the United States grew at an average rate of just 1.4% in these two quarters.

 

…At this point, America’s deficit hawks are jumping up and down screaming that the boost to Japan’s economy is just a “sugar high”, and that it will soon face a horrible collapse as payback. Of course, anything can happen in the future, but we just don’t see any real evidence of the deficit hawks’ doom story as of yet.

 

…In short, it is hard to tell a story about how Japan will suffer as a result of the measures its government is taking to boost growth and create jobs. These policies are 180 degrees at odds with the deficit fixation that dominates Washington policy debates.

 

In the quotation above, I show how Baker is explicitly contrasting Abenomics with the “deficit hawks” running US policy. I can point to plenty of examples of Krugman and Yglesias warning that budget “sequestration” in the US would hurt the tepid recovery. This is of course a natural implication of their Keynesian worldview: The US economy should have slowed, perhaps even slid back into recession, during 2013, because of idiotic budget cuts. In contrast, the deficits and monetary inflation in Japan should have bolstered their growth.

Well, as Dean Baker says, anything is possible in the future. But the current numbers say that Japan’s robust real GDP growth has fallen sharply to 1.1 percent by the third quarter, and despite the weaker yen Japan’s November trade deficit was the largest on record, with a string of consecutive monthly trade deficits not seen in decades.

In contrast, the latest estimate for US real GDP growth in the third quarter was a very robust 4.1 percent.

Now I haven’t seen our Keynesian pundits address Japan recently, but I think I know their position without even looking: The US economy would have grown even faster still had the Congress not foolishly cut spending or engaged in the pointless and destructive government shutdown. Furthermore, Abenomics really is working out great, just like they said, only Abe hasn’t run deficits quite big enough, or debased the yen quite enough. But trust them, they have science on their side.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/8QLF2EIp7G8/story01.htm Tyler Durden