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Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Cook County Illinois has the largest population loss of any county in the nation. Chicago represents just over half of the population of Cook County.

Here is a graph I put together of the “Great Escape” from Illinois.

Highlights

• Between 2013 and 2016 the population of Illinois fell by 77,966. The population of Cook County fell by 36,739.
• Between 2001 and 2016 the population of Illinois rose by 313,084. The population of Cook County fell by 122,759.
• Starting in 2013, the “great escape” is in roughly equal numbers from Cook County and the rest of the state.

Job Highlights

On July 23 I noted Eight States Including Illinois Have Not Recovered Jobs Lost in Prior Recessions. The states are Alabama, Connecticut, Illinois, Michigan, Mississippi, New Mexico, Ohio, and Wyoming.

Illinois, Ohio, and Michigan are still below employment levels set in 2000. Here is a new chart I created comparing Illinois to Michigan and Ohio.

At least Illinois is not last in every category.

Metro Area Unemployment: Which States Are in Reverse? Spotlight Illinois

• Illinois has 12 metro areas, none of which have unemployment rates below the national average.
• Illinois worsened between 1998 and 2007 and then again from 2007 to 2017.
• Neighboring states are all now better than Illinois

Illinois vs Neighboring States

For more details, please see Metro Area Unemployment: Which States Are in Reverse? Spotlight Illinois.

With each passing decade, the unemployment situation in Illinois has gotten worse.

This is not surprising. The state passed its first budget in three fiscal years, complete with massive tax hikes. The budget is required by Constitution to be balanced, but it isn’t.

An exodus of businesses and private citizens is underway. Reforms are desperately needed but none came with the passage of the budget.

Rauner 0-44

Governor Rauner is 0 for 44 in reforms he set out to accomplish. In fact, the corporate and personal tax hikes put the true score at -2 out of 44.

Cash-strapped cities suffer under prevailing wage laws and untenable pension promises.

Corporations suffer under the worst workers’ compensation laws in the nation.

Citizens suffer from the highest property taxes in the nation.

It is too late to save Illinois from insolvency. Rather than fix the problem, the new tax hikes will make matters worse.

Five Desperately Needed Reforms

1. Municipal bankruptcy legislation
2. Pension reform
3. Right-to-Work legislation
4. End of prevailing wage laws
5. Workers’ compensation reform

Number one on my list of Illinois reforms is bankruptcy legislation. It is the only way out for numerous Illinois cities whose hands are tied by union-sponsored prevailing wage laws and pension plans.

Moody’s held off for now downgrading Illinois to junk status, but junk is baked into the cake sooner or later. The budget fixes nothing.

via http://ift.tt/2v44r4K Tyler Durden

The ongoing saga to repeal Obamacare continues, and with just hours left until a critical vote, the sheer chaos has never been greater.

On Monday, Trump remained defiant warning Senate Republicans that anyone who votes not to take up debate of the bill today is saying they are “fine with the Obamacare nightmare.” Realistically,
Republicans have been struggling to find a replacement plan that can attract >50 votes in the Senate, even though the party has a 52-48 majority. Nonetheless, Senator Cornyn appears to be fighting to the end, noting yesterday that “if for some reason we aren’t able to muster the votes tomorrow…it’s not the end of it….”

Still, in what Bloomberg described as an “uncharacteristic gamble” for Mitch McConnell and the rest of the Senate GOP Leadership, the Senate is set to hold a crucial procedural vote to open debate on the Republican plan to undo ObamaCare without knowing A) which plan they will be voting for B) if the vote will pass. But by insisting on a vote, Trump and the leadership are playing a game of political chicken, forcing lawmakers to either publicly proclaim their opposition to the president, incurring the wrath of his supporters and maybe even a primary challenge, or show their support.

Or maybe not: as Citi describes today's main political event, "there's some confusion on what version of the bill will be voted on. The vote is on a procedural vote i.e. to allow the Senate to proceed to debate on the House-passed healthcare bill, which would then be followed by an open amendment process. Thus its the first step of a long road for repeal and replace healthcare legislation."

As one anonymous Senate aide "clarified" to the Hill: “Sometimes you have to stand up and be counted. You have to have a clarifying vote, and McConnell has done that before.” The problem is for the GOP, some have to be counted twice.

Right now, Susan Collins of Maine is the only confirmed “no” vote against beginning debate on either of the two plans: the Senate’s latest bill to repeal-and-replace, and its plan for a straight repeal. As many as seven other Republican Senators remain undecided on one or both measures, according to the New York Times.  Meanwhile, Trump has embraced the bully pulpit, threatening holdout Republicans on Monday in a series of tweets, and a statement from the Blue Room of the White House, where the president surrounded himself with “victims of Obamacare." He reminded Republicans that they made a “promise” to repeal and replace Obamacare seven years ago, then excoriated the holdouts for “not doing their jobs.”

“So far Senate Republicans have not done their job in ending the Obamacare nightmare, but now they have a chance to fix what has been broken this whole time,” Trump said.

He also took a few moments to bash Democrats as “obstructionist.” Unfortunately, lawmakers who ultimately vote in favor of either measure risk incurring the wrath of an organization that some believe holds more sway with voters than the White House: The AARP.

“AARP, the powerful lobby group that represents older Americans, urged the Senate to reject the measure and said it would communicate to members in key states how their senators voted.

 

“We will report to all 38 million AARP members how their Senators vote, via ads, our print publications, social media and more,” the group said Monday night on Twitter.”

According to the Hill, a recent Associated Press–NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll found that 27% of Republicans favor immediate repeal of Obamacare, while 54% want to repeal the law once there’s agreement on replacement legislation. And many conservative grassroots groups appear to support Trump’s plan. Jenny Beth Martin, the co-founder of the grassroots group Tea Party Patriots, told Bloomberg that, while it appears McConnell doesn’t have the votes, he is pushing “really hard” and that he’s working with the president to paint holdouts as supporters of the “status quo,” according to the Hill.

“His message is senators need to be for the motion to proceed or they’re for the status quo,” said Martin, who attended the meeting. “He would not be pushing it so hard, probably, if he had the votes lined up already.”

While there’s a slim chance McConnell could pull together a last-minute deal, it’s widely expected that, even if he succeeds in marshalling enough votes to begin debate, McConnell likely won’t be able to count on that support for a final up-down vote, according to Bloomberg. Furthermore, the Senate leadership is still considering last-minute changes to win the support of certain holdouts, like Pat Roberts of Kansas.

“Roberts said his main concern is the effect of spending cuts on rural hospitals that get Medicaid funds. ‘Under the current system, they’re just not going to be able to make it,’ Roberts said. ‘We’ve just got to figure out a way to make that work better.’

 

He said he was in touch over the weekend with Seema Verma, the Trump administration’s head of Medicare and Medicaid, and that her proposal to make up some funding with non-Medicaid money has potential.

 

‘It’s awfully difficult when people climb the tree and get out on a limb and say, ‘I’m going to vote no,’ the Kansas senator said. ‘For them to skinny back down that tree, that’s tough. And they have to have some very good reasons as to why that’s the case.’”

Even if the vote fails, there’s still some upside for McConnell, and maybe even Trump: It would demonstrate that what the Hill calls options A, B and C – the House plan, the Senate plan and straight-up repeal – aren’t viable, forcing the administration to consider a fourth option – moving on to another issue like "tax reform", although many Wall Street strategists have contended that a failure to repeal Obamacare would only make tax reform even more difficult, if not impossible.

At the end of the week, moving the agenda – any agenda – forward with or without a “1” in the points column will be McConnell’s biggest accomplishment.

As for today, here is Trump's summary tweeted out moments ago:

 

This will be a very interesting day for HealthCare.The Dems are obstructionists but the Republicans can have a great victory for the people!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 25, 2017

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Thanks to ‘beats’ by MCD, CAT, and UTX, The Dow is soaring in the pre-market – up over 110 points, back near record highs.

Despite GOOGL hovering near post-earnings lows (-2.8%), Nasdaq Futs are levitating along with S&P Futs…

as VIX is clubbed like a baby seal to 9.12…

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As is customary for the heavy-industrial equipment manufacturer, Caterpillar yesterday reported its retail sales, one day ahead of earnings, and as we discussed, the number was solid with Caterpillar reporting the longest positive streak in retail sales going back 51 months.

It was also a hint as to what the Dow-member would report today for its second quarter earnings, which showed a surprisingly strong performance with CAT posting impressive Q2 Q2 EPS of $1.49, above the Est. $1.25, and revenue of $11.33Bn, also beating estimates of $10.89BN, both largely due to the ongoing Chinese construction boom as the company itself admitted.

“Our team delivered an impressive quarter. As demand increased, we continued to control costs and generated higher profit margins,” said Caterpillar CEO Jim Umpleby. “While a number of our end markets remain challenged, construction in China and gas compression in North America were highlights in the quarter. Mining and oil-related activities have come off of recent lows, and we are seeing improving demand for construction in most regions.”

But it was the company’s aggressive upward guidance revision that has sent the stock, and the Dow, surging in the pre-market.

As the company said, “as a result of increased demand across many end markets and disciplined cost control, Caterpillar is raising its 2017 outlook” cautioning that “some risks remain in the outlook, including weakness in the Middle East and Latin America, as well as geopolitical and commodity risk.”

Here is the new guidance:

• CAT now expects FY revenue $42 billion to $44 billion, up $3 billion from the previous guidance provided in April, which was $38 billion to $41 billion, and well above the consensus estimate of $40.85BN .

Some more details from the press release:

In April 2017, Caterpillar provided an outlook range for full-year 2017 sales and revenues of $38 billion to $41 billion with a midpoint of $39.5 billion. The company is raising its full-year 2017 expectations for sales and revenues to a range of $42 billion to $44 billion with a midpoint of $43 billion.

 

For the full year of 2017, Caterpillar expects profit per share of about $3.50 at the midpoint of the sales and revenues outlook range, or adjusted profit per share of about $5.00. The previous outlook for 2017 profit was about $2.10 per share at the midpoint of the sales and revenues outlook, or adjusted profit per share of about $3.75. The company now expects to incur about $1.2 billion of restructuring costs in 2017. The outlook does not include potential mark-to-market gains or losses related to pension and other postemployment benefit (OPEB) plans.

 

“Given our performance in the first half of the year and current quotation and ordering activity, we are confident in raising our full-year 2017 outlook,” continued Umpleby. “We remain focused on serving our customers, delivering strong operational performance and executing our ongoing restructuring activities. During the second half of 2017, we anticipate making targeted investments in initiatives that are important to our future competitiveness, including enhanced digital capabilities and accelerating technology updates to our products. We intend to do this without adding to the structural costs we’ve worked so hard to streamline. These investments will prepare us to take advantage of the growth opportunities ahead.”

CAT also said it expects to make targeted investments during the second hald in initiatives that are important to “future competitiveness, including enhanced digital capabilities and accelerating technology updates” to products.” But what really matters to CAT is what happens in China, and specifically the domestic housing sector, which as we showed last week, may have fizzled for Tier 1 cities, but is only getting started for Tier 2 through Tier 4.

Finally, the market is delighted with the results, and has sent the stock up over 4%, to a new all time high.

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Gold Seasonal Sweet Spot – August and September – Coming

 – Gold seasonal sweet spot – August and September – is coming
– Gold’s performance by month from 1979 to 2016 – must see table
– August sees average return of 1.4% and September of 2.5%
– September is best month to own gold, followed by January, November & August

 by Palisade Research

Looking back at gold’s performance since 1979, August and September are big months for the yellow metal. What is the cause? No one really knows but there are some theories that have been thrown around.

The adage “sell in May and go away” is common in the mining sector. Investors are back from vacation and ready to deploy their cash in a big way. Concurrently, the largest financial crashes have occurred in September and October, investors are also buying gold to hedge their portfolios.

Indian wedding season is huge for gold, and if you have ever been to a traditional Indian, its easy to see why India is the World’s largest consumer of gold jewelry. Throw Christmas into the mix, and you have the perfect retail storm.

Lastly, the European Central Bank and 20 other European central banks are currently governed by a Central Bank Gold Agreement, which ensures all banks operate with transparency and do not engage in large uncoordinated gold sales. The Agreement dictates the limit in sales, and resets every September, meaning the market may see less selling activity.

In the 38 years we used for the chart, August had only 14 years of negative returns, while September had 13. Regardless if these theories are true or not, its hard to ignore the decades of data that suggest the best months of gold are yet to come.

Gold’s Best Months Are Coming – Read here

GoldCore Comment
The precious metal’s ‘summer doldrums’ period is coming to a close. Traditionally seasonal factors often result in weakness in gold and silver, particularly in May and June. This frequently creates an attractive buying opportunity for those seeking to allocate funds to the precious metals.

The data is compelling as seen in the Palisade table above. However, it is important to realise that the seasonal data is just another indicator and short term speculation should be avoided in favour of long term investment diversification.

It is important to focus on gold’s value rather than simply its price. Gold’s value is as an investment hedge and financial insurance against financial and monetary crises. There is a real of another global financial crisis in the coming months and in 2018 and hence the importance of owning physical gold and silver.

Owning physical coins and or bars in your possession and in allocated and most importantly in segregated accounts will continue to protect and grow wealth in the coming years.

Related Content
Gold Bullion Averages Biggest Seasonal Gains in September Over Past 20 Year –  Read here

Gold’s Sweet Spot – Strongest Months Are August, September, November And January – Read here

 

News and Commentary

Gold settles lower, ending 6-session streak of gains (MarketWatch.com)

Gold hits one-month high, eyes on Fed and dollar (Reuters.com)

U.S. Stocks Mixed as Dollar Stabilizes, Oil Gains (Bloomberg.com)

Gold settles lower, ending 6-session streak of gains (MarketWatch.com)

‘Shrinkflation’ has hit over 2,500 consumer products over the past five years (Telegraph.co.uk)

Putin’s Chess Game Involves Involves Accumulating Gold, Alternative Payments and Ultimate Demise of the Dollar (DailyReckoning.com)

Too calm? Wall Street volatility collapses to lowest since 1993 – CNBC (CNBC.com)

Crash in bond markets, Fed mistake are investors’ biggest fears right now, survey finds (CNBC.com)

Where Chinese Millionaires Want to Live (Statista.com)

Greed is no longer good – bond boom comes to an end – Guardian (TheGuardian.com)

Success isn’t just having lots of money – Success is fulfillment (CNBC.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

25 Jul: USD 1,252.00, GBP 960.78 & EUR 1,074.59 per ounce
24 Jul: USD 1,255.85, GBP 962.99 & EUR 1,077.64 per ounce
21 Jul: USD 1,247.25, GBP 958.89 & EUR 1,071.39 per ounce
20 Jul: USD 1,236.55, GBP 953.63 & EUR 1,075.06 per ounce
19 Jul: USD 1,239.85, GBP 950.84 & EUR 1,074.83 per ounce
18 Jul: USD 1,237.10, GBP 949.47 & EUR 1,071.82 per ounce
17 Jul: USD 1,229.85, GBP 940.71 & EUR 1,074.03 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

25 Jul: USD 16.31, GBP 12.52 & EUR 14.00 per ounce
24 Jul: USD 16.50, GBP 12.66 & EUR 14.17 per ounce
21 Jul: USD 16.43, GBP 12.63 & EUR 14.11 per ounce
20 Jul: USD 16.18, GBP 12.50 & EUR 14.07 per ounce
19 Jul: USD 16.23, GBP 12.44 & EUR 14.08 per ounce
18 Jul: USD 16.17, GBP 12.41 & EUR 13.99 per ounce
17 Jul: USD 16.07, GBP 12.30 & EUR 14.02 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– Commercial Property Market In Dublin Is Inflated and May Burst Again
– Gold Hedges Against Currency Devaluation and Cost Of Fuel, Food, Beer and Housing
– Millennials Can Punt On Bitcoin, Own Gold and Silver For Long Term
– “Time To Position In Gold Is Right Now” says Jim Rickards
– Bloomberg Silver Price Survey – Median 12 Month Forecast Of $20
– “Bigger Systemic Risk” Now Than 2008 – Bank of England
– “Financial Crisis” Coming By End Of 2018 – Prepare Urgently
– Video – “Gold Should Probably Be $5000” – CME Chairman
– India Gold Imports Surge To 5 Year High – 220 Tons In May Alone
– “Silver’s Plunge Is Nearing Completion”
– China, Russia Alliance Deepens Against American Overstretch
– Silver Prices Bounce Higher After Futures Manipulated 7% Lower In Minute
– Precious Metals Are “Best Defence” Against Bail-ins In Economic Crisis

Important Guides

For your perusal, below are our most popular guides in 2017:

Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Switzerland

Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Singapore

Essential Guide to Tax Free Gold Sovereigns (UK)

Please share our research with family, friends and colleagues who you think would benefit from being informed by it.

Special Offer – Gold Sovereigns at 3% Premium – London Storage

We have a very special offer on Sovereigns for London Storage today. Own one of the most popular and liquid of all bullion coins – Gold Sovereigns – at the lowest rates in the market for storage.

• Limited Gold Sovereigns (0.2354 oz) available
• Pricing at spot + 3.0% premium
• Allocated, segregated storage in London
• Normally sell at spot gold plus 6.75% to 10%
• One of most sought after bullion coins in the world
• Mixed year, circulated bullion coins
• Minimum order size is 20 coins

These coins are at a very low price and with limited amounts at these record low prices we expect them to sell out very fast.

Call our office today

UK +44 (0)203 086 9200
IRL +353 (0)1 632  5010
US +1 (302)635 1160

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• Dollar slumps to 13-month lows before Fed; euro up (Reuters)
• Overwhelming approval likely for Russia bill (Reuters)
• Trump to study tougher Russia sanctions bill: White House (Reuters)
• Unrest bubbles among Trump’s key foreign policy aides (Reuters)
• Abe Overtaken by Rival as Top Choice for Japan Premier in Poll (BBG)
• More U.S. Cars Are Made in Mexico (WSJ)
• The Chipotle Corporate Sabotage Theory Returns (BBG)
• McCain to return for pivotal Senate vote on healthcare (Reuters)
• Kushner Faces Hostile Questioning by Dems on House Panel (BBG)
• Chinese says interception of U.S. plane ‘necessary’ (Reuters)
• Record-Low ECB Rates Are a €1 Trillion Government Windfall (BBG)
• Dead Bodies Start Piling Up as Fuel Theft Booms in Mexico (BBG)
• Uber ties up with AXA for drivers’ accident cover in France (Reuters)
• Can John Cryan Save Deutsche Bank From Itself? (BBG)
• Oil extends gains as Saudi pledges export curbs (Reuters)
• Australia to accept first Central American refugees under U.S. deal (Reuters)
• U.S. judge halts deportation of more than 1,400 Iraqi nationals (Reuters)
• Angry Lawmaker Singles Out ‘Female Senators’ Over Health Vote (BBG)
• Israel removes Jerusalem metal detectors, Palestinians reject new measures (Reuters)
• Saudi Dairy Farm May Use Cow Dung to Meet Power Needs (BBG)

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

– President Donald Trump made a last-minute pitch to GOP senators urging them to vote Tuesday to begin debate on the health-care law, an exhortation that added to the pressures facing congressional Republicans. on.wsj.com/2uRDgK6

– Alphabet Inc said clicks on its ads surged 52 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier and Google Inc’s revenue per click fell 23 percent in the quarter. The growth in the number of clicks helped boost second-quarter revenue 21 percent to $26.01 billion over a year prior. on.wsj.com/2uRS37G

– South Korea’s Samsung conglomerate, best known for its smartphones and televisions, will make available in the U.S. its lower-price copy of Johnson & Johnson’s blockbuster arthritis drug Remicade. on.wsj.com/2uS9QeT

– Saudi Arabia’s Energy minister Khalid al-Falih said Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter, announced it would go further than cutting its production and would also limit its exports at 6.6 million barrels a day in August. on.wsj.com/2uRSBdK

– China has been bolstering defenses along its 880-mile frontier with North Korea and realigning forces in surrounding regions to prepare for a potential crisis across their border, including the possibility of a U.S. military strike. on.wsj.com/2uSw14J

– Mercedes-Benz parent Daimler AG is investing in a Chinese self-driving startup, in another instance of a Western auto maker seeking out a Chinese partner to get a foothold in a challenging market. on.wsj.com/2uRE3e2

– Barnes & Noble Inc is being pushed to sell itself by Sandell Asset Management, which says the beleaguered bookseller could benefit from fresh investment. on.wsj.com/2uRpgQI

– One of China’s most acquisitive conglomerates, privately owned HNA Group, has unveiled a new ownership structure in a bid to eliminate doubt over who ultimately controls the group. on.wsj.com/2uSaUPV

 

FT

Alphabet Inc profits fell by more than a quarter after it was hit by a $2.7 billion fine by the European Commission, triggering the biggest decline in the internet group’s net income since 2008.

Flavio Cattaneo, who stepped down as chief executive of Telecom Italia SpA over the weekend amid reports of a clash with majority shareholder Vivendi SA, will receive a 25 million euro payout, the company said on Monday.

The UK’s Serious Fraud Office has launched an investigation into a 2011 payment made by Rio Tinto Plc to a consultant working on a controversial iron ore deposit in Guinea.

A restructuring by acquisitive Chinese conglomerate HNA has moved the ownership of a 29.5 per cent stake from a mysterious Chinese investor to a New York-registered non-profit, adding to the questions surrounding the governance of the company.

 

NYT

– Martin Shkreli said in court Monday that he would not testify in his own defense in his fraud trial, a turnaround from last week, when his lawyers told a judge that he had “insisted” on testifying. nyti.ms/2gYSmrw

– Fact-checking website Snope is locked in a legal battle saying it has drained the money it needs to survive. The site, which gets all of its revenue from advertising, created a crowdfunding page seeking $500,000 from readers to remain operational indefinitely. nyti.ms/2vUBHrv

– HNA Group said its largest shareholder Guan Jun, a private businessman in China, recently donated his 30 percent stake in the company to HNA’s Hainan Cihang Charity Foundation. Combined with the 22.8 percent stake held by HNA’s sister charity in China, HNA says it is now 52 percent owned by the Cihang foundations. nyti.ms/2tVlwZN

– Internet Brands, a KKR portfolio company, agreed to buy WebMD Health Corp for about $2.8 billion. Separately, KKR also said it would acquire a majority stake in Nature’s Bounty from private equity rival Carlyle Group for an undisclosed amount. nyti.ms/2gYCwgm

 

Canada

The Globe and Mail

** Canada government is prepared to walk away from NAFTA negotiations if the Trump administration insists that dispute-settlement panels be removed from the accord, according to a senior official. Canada, the United States and Mexico will sit down on Aug. 16 for the first round of talks aimed at rewriting the North American free-trade agreement. tgam.ca/2uw7SON

** British Columbia Premier John Horgan will meet with the U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross when he heads to Washington this week to make a case for a deal to resolve the softwood-lumber dispute, which threatens the province’s single-largest export to the United States. tgam.ca/2usP44k

** Underwriters had little trouble selling Hydro One Ltd’s C$1.4 billion ($1.12 billion) bought deal, which was announced last week with the utility’s C$4.4 billion ($3.52 billion) acquisition of U.S.-based Avista Corp. The entire allocation of convertible debentures was sold within a day, say sources familiar with the financing. tgam.ca/2tG5yaJ

National Post

** Creative groups representing media producers, writers, directors and actors published a letter on Monday imploring Canadian Heritage Minister Melanie Jolyare to overrule a decision by Canada’s broadcast regulator that they argue will cut investments in made-in-Canada television programming by hundreds of millions of dollars. bit.ly/2uSYlnn

** The International Monetary Fund now expects Canada’s gross domestic product to grow 2.5 percent this year, leading G7 growth, according to its latest World Economic Outlook. This is up from the prior forecast of 1.9 percent released in April. bit.ly/2vCuZXP

 

Britian

The Times

Banks are guilty of a “spiral of complacency” as lenders from credit card providers to car financiers have eased their lending standards and allowed borrowers to “rack up more and more debt”, one of the Bank of England’s leading officials has warned. bit.ly/2eJ4Zq3

Fraud investigators have opened an inquiry into possible corruption by Rio Tinto Plc in Guinea, nearly nine months after the miner reported itself to authorities in three countries over suspect payments. bit.ly/2eJdcdF

The Guardian

EasyJet Plc has announced the largest cabin crew intake in its 21-year history, with plans to hire more than 1,000 staff. bit.ly/2eJdpgX

The Telegraph

Convenience chain McColl’s Retail Group Plc has confirmed it is retendering its 2 billion pounds ($2.60 billion) supply deal with retailer Nisa, in a potential blow to J Sainsbury Plc’s planned 130 million pounds takeover of Nisa. bit.ly/2eJouih

A raft of top European companies will be forced to pull out of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project with Russia or face crippling sanctions under legislation racing through the U.S. Congress. bit.ly/2eJckWv

Sky News

More than 2,500 products have shrunk in size over the past five years, but are being sold for the same price, official figures show. It is not just chocolate bars that are affected by the so-called “shrinkflation” phenomenon, according to the Office for National Statistics. bit.ly/2eINiXA

The first phase of a four-year 246 million pounds government investment into battery technology has been launched in a move that could help bring down household electricity bills. bit.ly/2eJs6jZ

The Independent

Tesco Plc is rolling out its same-day grocery delivery service across the country as it aims to counter the threat posed by Amazon.com Inc. ind.pn/2eJdwJj

 

via http://ift.tt/2vVJcyr Tyler Durden

The feud between Donald Trump and Jeff Sessions started early on Tuesday, when President Trump, in an early tweetstorm lashed out at the attorney general whom he accused of taking a “VERY weak position on Hillary Clinton crimes.”

“Attorney General Jeff Sessions has taken a VERY weak position on Hillary Clinton crimes (where are E-mails & DNC server) & Intel leakers!” Trump tweeted.

Attorney General Jeff Sessions has taken a VERY weak position on Hillary Clinton crimes (where are E-mails & DNC server) & Intel leakers!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 25, 2017

In a follow up tweet, Trump also slammed the acting director of the FBI, Andrew McCabe, whom he implicitly accused of corruption for getting $700,000 from Hillary for his wife (which incidentally is accurate, as the WSJ described last October, in “Clinton Ally Aided Campaign of FBI Official’s Wife“)

“Problem is that the acting head of the FBI & the person in charge of the Hillary investigation, Andrew McCabe, got $700,000 from H for wife!” he said on Twitter.

Problem is that the acting head of the FBI & the person in charge of the Hillary investigation, Andrew McCabe, got $700,000 from H for wife!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 25, 2017

Today’s animosity between Trump and Sessions was first unveiled in an interview with The New York Times last week, when Trump said he would have never hired his attorney general if he knew he would recuse himself from the probe into ties between the Trump campaign and Russia. Trump in a tweet Monday morning also asked why the “beleaguered A.G.” wasn’t investigating ties between Clinton and Russia.

Overnight, the WaPo reported that Trump has floated possible replacements for Sessions including Sen. Ted Cruz and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, although subsequently Giuliani said on Monday, however, that he’s not being considered for the position.

In addition to slamming Sessions, Trump also focused on today’s big item, the latest Senate vote on the GOP Healthcare vote, which however remains in chaos as nobody knows what will be voted on just hours ahead of the actual vote. After berating Republicans for failing to repeal and replace Obamacare on Monday, Trump tweeted “Big day for HealthCare. After 7 years of talking, we will soon see whether or not Republicans are willing to step up to the plate! ObamaCare is torturing the American People.The Democrats have fooled the people long enough. Repeal or Repeal & Replace! I have pen in hand.”

Big day for HealthCare. After 7 years of talking, we will soon see whether or not Republicans are willing to step up to the plate!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 25, 2017

ObamaCare is torturing the American People.The Democrats have fooled the people long enough. Repeal or Repeal & Replace! I have pen in hand.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 25, 2017

Today’s Trump tweets followed a late night barrage against the WaPo/Amazon/Jeff Bezos (who is now about $2 billion away from becoming the world’s richest man), in which Trump said “So many stories about me in the @washingtonpost are Fake News. They are as bad as ratings challenged @CNN. Lobbyist for Amazon and taxes?” and “Is Fake News Washington Post being used as a lobbyist weapon against Congress to keep Politicians from looking into Amazon no-tax monopoly?“, prompting many to ask if Trump’s much anticipated crackdown against Bezos has officially begun.

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After sliding to 3 month lows on “car cartel” concerns yesterday, European stocks have rebounded after three days of declines, while oil extended gains after Saudi export cuts, with Brent rising above $49 and WTI just shy of $47. Asian stocks fell while S&P futures rose 0.2% to 2,473, putting yesterday’s GOOGL drop on plunging Costs-Per-Click in the rearview mirror.

Helping today’s episode of global, pervasive complacency is the VIX which was hammered early by 3% in early Tuesday trading, down to 9.17. As previewed on Monday, the dollar rebounded after dropping to its lowest since August as investors await Wednesday’s U.S. interest rate decision; the greenback strength sent Gold lower for the first time in four days.

US TSYs sell-off in relatively heavy volume after a large futures block trade in London hours and Bunds decline as strong German IFO data weighs. The dollar rallied from overnight low against G-10 and UST move helps USD/JPY trade through yesterday’s high.

Most European industry sectors rose as the Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.5%, with banks leading the way as German 2s10s curve steepens and ahead of bank earnings later this week, helping the DAX regain some of the recently lost ground, although as the chart below shows it has a way to go before catching up with the MSCI World Stocks index which remains just shy of all time highs.

Emerging-market equities fell after gaining in 10 of the past 11 days, on the back The greenback strengthened with the euro, which flirted once again with its highest level in two years after German business confidence data beat expectations. Saudi Arabia’s promise to further cut crude exports pushed Brent to under $1 of $50. Overnight, the Euro got a boost after ECB’s Mersch stated monetary accommodation is still needed and ongoing expansion in the euro area offers confidence but stated that “risks to the euro area growth may be to the upside” and that headline inflation is dampened by weak energy prices, but added that underlying inflation is to rise gradually.

The Euro got a boost as German business morale hit new high, with firms “euphoric” according to the Munich based Ifo economic institute that compiles the data from 7,000 of them in Europe’s largest economy. “Hardly anything seems to be able to hit the German economy,” Ifo economist Klaus Wohlrabe added, saying German business was experienced in managing the impact of exchange rate moves following the euro’s sharp rise.

The Australian dollar rose less than 0.1 percent after erasing an earlier decline. Attention turns to two key events on Wednesday: June quarterly inflation data and a speech on the labor market and monetary policy from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe. Japan’s Topix index lost 0.3 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.7 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index retreated 0.5 percent.  The Hang Seng Index was little changed while the Shanghai Composite Index slipped 0.2 percent. Strong rally in base metals, led by copper with most noting potential demand growth from China; U.K. mining stocks supported through the equity open.

The Fed starts a two-day meeting later in the day to discuss its monetary stance and the timing of its long-awaited balance sheet reduction, a plan most likely to be detailed in September. “Any major policy announcement is more likely when Chair Janet Yellen faces the press following the September meeting,” J&E Davy Holdings Ltd. analyst David McNamara wrote in a note. “For now the Fed remain on track for a couple more rate hikes at least this year, with most members believing the recent softness in inflation to be temporary.”

The political troubles of President Donald Trump’s White House continue to mount, with investigations into his pre-election links to Russia deepening. There is also growing anxiety about the United States hitting another debt ceiling in October with few moves to potentially offset that.

“We may seem some consolidation here from the dollar but fundamentally our bearish view on it remains,” UniCredit Global Head of FX Strategy Vasileios Gkionakis told Reuters. “What the Fed says tomorrow is the million dollar question… but the risk is that they sound a bit more cautious after the fourth consecutive downside surprise in inflation.”

Greek government borrowing costs meanwhile hovered near their lowest level since 2010, as the country sought to sell its first longer-dated bond in three years. Some five years since European Central Bank Mario Draghi pledged to do “whatever it takes” to preserve the euro, the debt sale by the euro zone’s weakest economy is the clearest sign yet of the bloc’s recovery from a crippling debt crisis.

Elsewhere in rates, the yield on 10-year Treasuries increased two basis points to 2.27 percent, the highest in more than a week. Germany’s 10-year yield rose one basis point to 0.52 percent. Britain’s 10-year yield also added one basis point to 1.194 percent. France’s 10-year yield climbed one basis point to 0.763 percent, the first advance in more than a week. The gap between Italian and German 10-year bond yields narrowed to its smallest since December 2016 at 153 basis points.

Companies scheduled to report earnings include AT&T, Amgen and 3M. Economic data include conference board consumer confidence.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 2,470.50
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 381.00
• MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.2% to 159.17
• MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan down 0.09% to 526.11
• Nikkei down 0.1% to 19,955.20
• Topix down 0.3% to 1,617.07
• Hang Seng Index up 0.02% to 26,852.05
• Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,243.69
• Sensex up 0.03% to 32,257.09
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 5,726.60
• Kospi down 0.5% to 2,439.90
• German 10Y yield rose 0.6 bps to 0.514%
• Euro up 0.09% to 1.1653 per US$
• Brent Futures up 1% to $49.06/bbl
• Italian 10Y yield fell 1.7 bps to 1.763%
• Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.2 bps to 1.483%
• Brent futures up 1% to $49.06/bbl
• Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,252.28
• U.S. dollar Index unchanged at 93.98

Top Overnight News

• Senate GOP Set to Roll the Dice on Health Vote at Trump’s Urging
• House Poised to Add Russia Sanctions With Curbs on Trump’s Power
• Alphabet Falls on Concern About Rising Google Traffic Costs
• Michael Kors to Buy Jimmy Choo for About $1.2 Billion
• German Business Climate Hits Record as Economy Proves Robust
• Saudi Alliance Says Qatar’s Action Not Enough to End Crisis
• Elon Musk Says Zuckerberg’s Understanding of AI Is ‘Limited’
• EU Asks Google, Facebook, Twitter to Make More Changes to Terms
• Copper Heads for Highest Close Since ‘15 as Rally Picks Up Steam
• Nasdaq Agrees to Acquire Sybentix to Beef Up Trade Surveillance
• Wal-Mart and JD Deepen Chinese Logistics, Customer Integration
• Beximco Pharma Gets FDA Approval for Methocarbamol
• Quants Unlock Iron Ore’s Secrets as BNP Says Yuan Is the Key
• Government Shutdown Odds Grow With GOP Border Wall Funding Bill

Asian markets maintained the mixed tone seen on Wall Street where earnings remained in focus and tech outperformed, which pushed the Nasdaq to fresh record highs before a continued drop in Alphabet’s cost-per¬clicks resulted to an after-market pullback in futures. ASX 200 (+0.9%) outperformed as broad-based gains buoyed the index, while Nikkei 225 (-0.1%) traded indecisive and at the mercy of JPY price action. Shanghai Comp. (-0.1%) and Hang Seng (Unch.) were choppy as concerns of tighter regulatory scrutiny persisted, and although the PBoC reduced its liquidity operation by more than half, this was still a respectable CNY 140bln injection. 10yr JGBs were flat amid an inconclusive risk tone in the region, while today’s 40yr auction also failed to spur demand despite the b/c at its highest since February 2015, as this was also accompanied by a decline in lowest accepted prices. BoJ meeting minutes for June 15th – 16th meeting state that members agreed policy needs to be keep easy as price target is still distant. Highlights:

• Financial conditions were highly accommodative
• Inflation expectations remain in a weakening phase
• Overseas economies continue to grow at a moderate pace overall
• Japan’s economy has been turning towards a moderate expansion
• One member said BoJ should set asset purchases as target

ECB’s Mersch stated monetary accommodation is still needed and ongoing expansion in the euro area offers confidence. Mersch also stated that risks to the euro area growth may be to the upside and that headline inflation is dampened by weak energy prices, but added that underlying inflation is to rise gradually.

Top Asia News

• Ishiba Overtakes Abe as Top Choice for Japan Premier in Poll
• Indonesia Flags Risk of Forest Fires That Triggered 2015 Haze
• SoftBank Is Said to Mull Buying Stake in Bharti Airtel: CNBC
• HNA Is Said to Have Parked Shareholdings With Mystery Investor

European bourses trade green across the board, financials out-perform, likely a carry on to a strong Q2 earnings start for the banking stocks. German Ifo was the key piece of data for the morning, where beats were seen across the report. Despite earnings, stock specific news has largely been dictated by takeover talk, with Jimmy Choo confirming an offer from Michael Kors, being followed by reports that Shell and Softbank are among potential suitors considering bidding for renewable energy firm Equis for potentially USD 5bn. Fixed income markets were led by German paper in early trade, as a large sell order was followed by the aforementioned strong German Ifo data. BTP’s have outperformed, after hitting a new high at 137.17, with the Italian yields still managing to hold above 2.00%.

Top European News

• Ifo July German Business Confidence Index at 116.0, Est. 114.9
• UPM Falls, Pulling Down Stora Enso; DNB Sees Softness in Paper
• Kumba Resumes Dividend as Earnings Jump After Iron Ore Recovery
• Intertrust Shares Slump as Company Cuts Full-Year Margin Target

In currencies, EUR/USD saw a slight bid following the Ifo beat, marginally so, continuing to trade in the day’s range, with similar price action seen in EUR/GBP, with the pair quickly retracing the move. The Kiwi saw some brief, rare selling pressure, amid news that New Zealand Officials stated that a contagious disease has been found in 14 cattle. With New Zealand being one of the top five largest exporters of beef, this weighed on the Kiwi dollar. The volatility in NZD led into early European trade, and despite NZD/USD bouncing ahead of 0.74, a Kiwi recovery was not seen in AUD/NZD, trading though overnight highs in the European session. A 1.07 test in AUD/NZD is possible, as the week’s high is set to act as intra-day resistance. The Japanese risk event overnight was the BoJ meeting minutes for June 15th — 16th meeting; the highlight stating that members agreed policy needs to be keep easy as price target is still distant. Despite a modest uptick following the release, and some buying following, the 11.30/50 area continues to act as intraday resistance, and following the rejection of this level once again, the market has been pushed to look to test 110.60 lows.

In commodities, energy traders will await the API report following the wall street closing bell this evening, with Oil markets trading subdued following the OPEC led volatility yesterday. The precious metals trade marginally lower, as mild money flow into equities has been clear, further weighed upon by strong numbers out of Germany. Gold does trade at the top of a July uptrend however, slowing down around the 1257.50 area (23 June High).

Taking a look now at the day ahead, we will see house price data for May in the form of the FHFA House Price Index (+0.5% mom expected) and the S&P House Price indices. We will also get the July readings for the conference board consumer confidence indicator (116.5 expected; 118.9 previous) and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (7 expected; 7 previous. Away from the data, the US secretary of Commerce will address the economic club of Washington and BOE Haldane speaks. Notable US companies reporting include: AMD, McDonalds, 3M, Texas instruments, Caterpillar, AT&T and GM.

US Event Calendar

• 9am: FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.7%
• 9am: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA, est. 0.3%, prior 0.28%; CS 20-City YoY NSA, est. 5.75%, prior 5.67%
• 10am: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 116.5, prior 118.9; Present Situation, prior 146.3; Expectations, prior 100.6
• 10am: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, est. 7, prior 7

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

There wasn’t much heat in markets yesterday and we saw a day of mixed sentiment across broader European and US equity markets although the VIX did hit an intra day low of 9.26 (closed at 9.43) in late trading which would have been the all time low. The NASDAQ (+0.4%) hit fresh all time highs. If there was a story to keep on your radar it’s that yesterday saw the US T-bill curve invert after a weak 3m auction. There’s chatter that autumnal debt ceiling fears are creating some worries.

Back to equities, in Europe the STOXX dipped by -0.2% on the day which can be traced to some weaker PMI data out yesterday (discussed further below). However the market dynamics were more uneven across regions: the DAX (-0.3%) and FTSE (-1.0%) both posted losses while the CAC (+0.2%) and FTSE MIB (+0.6%) rose on the day. To be fair the lows of the day were early in the European session and the rest of the day was spent slowly recovering. Most sectors posted a loss though with the Automobile sector as the worst performer at -1.2%, while the STOXX Banks index was the top performer as it gained +0.8% on the day ahead of a number reporting this week. Over in the US the S&P 500 (-0.1%) and Dow (-0.3%) were both down. Nearly all S&P 500 sectors were in the red although financials were the best performer and rose by +0.3% on the day, followed by IT (+0.25%).

This morning in Asia, markets have been quiet and slightly on the softer side with the Nikkei (-0.1%), Kospi (-0.1%), Hang Seng (flat) and the 3 Chinese bourses down around 0.2-0.3%. Alphabet shares fell as much as -3.5% after hours last night after a disappointing earnings report.

On the US political links with Russia, during a 2.5 hours Q&A with Senate investigators, White House advisor Kushner denied he “…colluded with Russia, nor do I know of anyone else in the campaign who did so..”. That said, he also confirmed 4 contacts with Russians during the presidential campaign, but the “encounters were unmemorable”.

The ongoing saga to repeal Obamacare also continues. Trump remains defiant, warning Senate Republicans that anyone who votes not to take up debate of the bill today is saying they are “fine with the Obamacare nightmare.” Realistically, Republicans have been struggling to find a replacement plan that can attract >50 votes in the Senate, even though the party has a 52-48 majority. Nonetheless, Senator Cornyn appears to be fighting to the end, noting yesterday that “if for some reason we aren’t able to muster the votes tomorrow…it’s not the end of it….” For now, we wait and watch.

Back to yesterday and over in government bond markets, we saw the German Bund curve unchanged to slightly lower across all maturity points (2Y: -2bps; 10Y: unch). OATs (2Y: -1bp; 10Y: unch) and BTPs (10Y:  -2bps) also saw yields broadly flat to slightly lower across maturities, while Gilts saw yields rise across all points of the curve (2Y: +1bp; 10Y: +1bp). Over in the US Treasury yields were higher across all maturity points (2Y: +2bps; 10Y: +2bp).

Over in FX markets, the US dollar index posted a rare recent gain (+0.2%) following two weeks where it has cumulatively dropped by over -2%. Sterling was also up on the day by +0.2%, while the Euro saw its rally pause for breath as it dropped by -0.2% on the day. Over in commodity markets crude oil was up on the day (WTI +1.4%) although other segments of the energy sector posted some losses. Oil was helped by Saudi Arabia pledging big export cuts and also Halliburton suggesting the shale boom was slowing. The metals sector saw precious metals flat to marginally lower (Gold: +0.0%; Silver -0.1%) while industrial metals were a mixed bag with copper gaining (+0.8%) while aluminium was lower (-0.1%).

We also got a look at the latest CSPP numbers out yesterday. Net CSPP purchases averaged €145mn/day last week, well below the €361mn average since the program started. This was a very slow CSPP week, even  by last summer’s standards (only the Christmas break lull is comparable). With PSPP purchases at €12.1bn, the weekly CSPP/PSPP flow ratio dropped to 6% which is less than half of the historical average. However much of this may be noise due to the summer lull and it remains difficult to conclude much from these dynamics. Staying with credit, Michal Jezek on my team published a note yesterday on his views on credit curves in Europe. The piece notes that while credit curves are expectedly steep given the current macro environment and sound corporate fundamentals, future changes will depend on how good a macro outlook is being priced in already and what the contribution of ECB QE technicals has been. Given our views about the likely combination of macro fundamentals and market technicals going forward, we maintain a flattening bias. We also highlight key curve trade strategies around these views.

Taking a look at yesterday’s calendar, the key numbers in Europe were the manufacturing, services and composite PMIs for France, Germany and the Eurozone. The Euro Area composite PMI disappointed as it pulled back more than expected (55.8 vs. 56.2 expected; 56.3 previous). As the services PMI reading was steady on the month as expected (55.4 vs. 55.4 expected; 55.4 previous), the fall in the composite can be largely attributed to the unexpectedly large drop in the manufacturing PMI (56.8 vs. 57.2 expected; 57.4 previous). France and Germany also saw their composite PMIs disappoint after dropping to 55.7 (vs. 56.4 expected; 56.6 previous) and 55.1 (vs. 56.3 expected; 56.4 previous) respectively. However France actually saw its manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rise to 55.4 (vs. 54.6 expected; 54.8 previous) while the drop in the composite was largely due to the fall in the services PMI (55.9 vs. 56.7 expected; 56.9 previous). Germany on the other hand saw both its manufacturing (58.3 vs. 59.2 expected; 59.6 previous) and services (53.5 vs. 54.3 expected; 54.0 previous) disappoint.

Over in the US we also got the Markit PMI numbers, where the composite ticked up to 54.2 (53.0 previous) primarily off an unexpectedly large gain in the manufacturing PMI to 53.2 (vs. 52.3 expected; 52.0 previous) as services remained steady (as expected) on the month at 54.2. Away from PMIs the US also saw existing home sales data for June that came fell more than expected to 5.52m (vs. 5.57m expected; 5.62m previous).

Taking a look now at the day ahead. In Europe we will open with various July confidence indicators out of France, which will be followed by the July IFO business climate (114.9 expected) and expectations (106.5 expected) readings for Germany. Over in the US we will see house price data for May in the form of the FHFA House Price Index (+0.5% mom expected) and the S&P House Price indices. Thereafter we will also get the July readings for the conference board consumer confidence indicator (116.5 expected; 118.9 previous) and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (7 expected; 7 previous).

Away from the data, the US secretary of Commerce will address the economic club of Washington and BOE Haldane speaks. Notable US companies reporting include: AMD, McDonalds, 3M, Texas instruments, Caterpillar, AT&T and GM.

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