How Fractional Reserves And Inflation Cause Economic Inequality

Submitted by Andreas Marquart via the Ludwig von Mises Institute,

[Editor’s Note: Andreas Marquart and Philipp Bagus recently released a new German-language book, Warum anderen auf Ihre Kosten immer reicher werden — und welche Rolle Staat und Papiergield dabei spielen, about “why others are getting richer at your expense,” now available from FinanzBuch publishers. Mr. Marquart spoke with us about income inequality, Thomas Piketty, and the new book.]

Mises Institute: How would you translate your new book’s title into English?

Andreas Marquant: I would like to say The State Causes the Poverty It Later Claims to Solve. This is the title of my article on mises.org last December. An even better title could be The Austrian Answer to Thomas Piketty.

MI: Your book addresses the issue of income inequality. Is income inequality a bad thing?

AM: First of all, inequality and income inequality are natural phenomena because people are different. They all have different talents and that is a reason for the division of labor. It’s also a reason people work together and it’s a basic part of any complex society. Furthermore, some people are hardworking, others are more lazy. Income inequality is the logical consequence of this. The key question is: is income inequality the result of the free market and the free decisions of voluntary interacting actors; or is income inequality the result of the expansion of fiat money and the creation of money out of thin air that benefits the privileged few at the expense of many? That is, is it the result of state intervention? If the latter, case we have a problem.

MI: When caused by state intervention, what is the primary source of the problem?

AM: The primary source is fiat money inflation and the artificial increase of the money supply by bank credit. The greater fiat money inflation is, the more unjust are the consequences. The early recipients of newly-created money are the winners. The later receivers of the new money are the losers. This is certainly true when prices are clearly increasing, but the same redistribution effect also exists when money creation takes place in a situation where prices for goods and services should be falling but are not. For example, in an economy where worker productivity is increasing, prices should be falling. But even if prices remain more or less constant, a gigantic redistribution through the money printing press may be under way as workers become more productive but see no benefit from it, thanks to inflation.

But the redistribution does not only work through its effects on the prices of goods and services. Have a look at the equity markets. The money created by the FED or the European Central Bank leads to new record-breaking prices at the equity markets. If you have a big block of shares already, you can benefit when this happens, but what if you cannot afford to buy stocks because your energy bill and food expenditures are rising continuously? And often, one very important point is forgotten: the transfer of wealth is irreversible, even if the new money disappears again.

MI: In your book you contend that “good money” is important for economic prosperity. What is good money and why is this true?

AM: Commodity money is good money because it is free-market money. The money supply would be expanded by natural and free production only, through voluntary exchange. This is the reason that in the past, precious metals such as gold and silver were used as money very often. We have good money when the government has nothing to do with the monetary system and people themselves can decide what money they want to use spontaneously and without any coercion from the state.

MI: Someone who objects to your argument might say “Just look at the 19th century. That was a period with a gold standard and capitalism, and yet we saw lots of inequality at that time, didn’t we?”

AM: In that case, banks had the privilege of holding only a fractional gold reserve, which is clearly not a true gold standard. That is, they still could create money out of thin air and give it to some people, while others did not receive this money but had to deal with prices that were higher than they otherwise would have been. So there was indeed a redistribution stemming from the inflationary production of fiduciary media also in the 19th century. And in that case also, the redistribution had a tendency of being in favor of the already well-off since the already-wealthy could provide better guarantees for the loans created out of thin air. Of course, the scale of the monetary redistribution of the 19th century was tiny in comparison with the creation of fiat money today.

That being said, the 19th century was a time of a great industrialization. Railroads and water delivery systems were being built, the steel industry was growing rapidly, and for many entrepreneurial people, it was the chance of a lifetime. Some were more clever and faster than others, so naturally, some people got richer than others in these exciting times of extraordinary growth. But where is the problem if it is the consequence of voluntary interactions? As I noted earlier, inequality is a natural phenomenon. What has to be criticized: if entrepreneurs get subsidies from government or they receive money created out of thin air, then that is a case where one group of people is being forced to benefit another group.

MI: When you looked at Piketty’s book what stood out to you as some of the biggest errors in it?

AM: Piketty’s biggest error is to conclude from the data collected that under capitalism the rich get richer in relation to everyone else. I’m afraid that such a claim is nonsense. Piketty takes his data from a period that is characterized by both capitalism and socialism, and then he attributes everything he dislikes to capitalism. Yet his data is not from a capitalist world. The economic system in which we live today is a crony capitalist system or, we might say, a system of money socialism. And that’s Piketty’s greatest error: to blame capitalism for the negative effects of crony capitalism and money socialism. But perhaps it is no error. Perhaps, he only wants to be loved by politicians and the IMF. I think they love him already, though.




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“Exceptional” – USA Is Number 1 In… Gambling Losses

Last week we highlighted just how “rigged” the casino really is (real casinos – as opposed to the equity markets) and while that was shocking, the USA can be proud of another exceptionalism… As The Economist notes, at $119 billion in 2013, the United States was the biggest gambling loser in the world. However, on a per capita basis, Australia and Singapore top the list.

 

 

Source: The Economist




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Democrats May Face Midterm Drubbing, Inspector General Knew About VA Wait Lists, Libya Gets Even Messier: P.M. Links

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Ira Stoll on How Raising the Minimum Wage Destroys Jobs

Many liberals dismissed the idea that a
higher minimum wage would mean more workers replaced by computer
screens as a bunch of right-wing propaganda. But as Ira Stoll
reports, those dismissers are in for a reality check. McDonald’s
announced this month that it will deploy computer kiosks at 7,000
restaurants in Europe, allowing customers to place their own orders
and pay by swiping their own credit card. Another restaurant chain,
Panera, is deploying the computer kiosks for customers in the
United States. In other words, no cash-register employee needed,
whether at a minimum or a “living” wage.

View this article.

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Five Promises Narendra Modi Will Have to Break

Those who’ve been following my rants know that I’m
not a fan
of
Hindu nationalist
Narendra Modi, who won a Narendra Modidecisive victory in India’s national
elections last week, delivering a historic “shellacking” to the
ruling Congress Party. His campaign shrewdly buried his Hindu
extremism and articulated a message of economic hope calculated to
boost the spirits of Indians reeling from a lost half-a-decade of
economic growth. Many have compared his mantra of “good governance,
small government” to Reagan’s, never mind that Modi’s sarcastic and
condescending personal style couldn’t be more different than
Reagan’s cheery amiability.

Be that as it may, I note in a piece up at Time that if
Modi is going to turn around the country’s economy, he’ll have
break at least five campaign pledges right off the bat:

1. Stop Propping Up Inefficient Public Sector
Companies

More than 20% of India’s economy consists of poorly run,

federally owned companies

Instead, last month, Modi made the
face-palm inducing statement
that beating up on these companies
has “done much damage” to them.

2. Abandon Gaudy Infrastructure Projects

There is no doubt that India needs to improve its infrastructure
– pathetic even by developing countries’ standards – if it wants to
boost productivity and growth…

But Modi has produced an infrastructure development plan as
gaudy as Liberace’s Christmas tree, complete with “bullet trains in
four directions.”

3. Kill Wasteful Subsidies

Modi’s stump speeches repeatedly, and rightly, reminded voters
that the Congress Party’s game of “vote-bank politics” – handing
welfare subsidies to special constituencies to win votes – was
ruining the country without improving living standards. Modi’s
solution? More subsidies.

4. Let in Big Box Foreign Retailers

Modi, this fearless reformer who prides himself on having
attracted a record amount of foreign investment in Gujarat, agreed
to scrap the law [that allows Big Box stores such as Walmart into
India’s retail sector]. Why? Because it threatened millions of
small mom-and-pop storeowners, his party’s core base.

5. Keep Inflation Hawk Raghuram Rajan as India’s Central
Banker

Modi is admittedly between a rock and a hard place on this
[whether to prioritize growth over slaying inflation]. But Reagan,
his role model, allowed the central bank to first squeeze out
inflation, and so should he.

Go here for
the whole piece.

Here
is an excellent discussion I moderated at the Asia Society back in
February about how much of an economic reformer Modi was really
going to be with AEI’s Sadanand Dhume, Columbia’s Arvind
Panagariya, who is
slated
to become Modi’s economic advisor, and Carnegie
Endowment’s Milan Vaishnav.

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S&P Lifted Green For May On Lowest Volume Day Of 2014

Equity volumes were abysmal today… (NYSE lowest in 2014) which means only one thing… a VIX-driven levitation. Bonds sold off at the long-end (30Y +4bps) but the short-end remained bid (5Y -1bp) but did get 5s30s back to 5 week steeps. USDJPY bounced off  its 200DMA (~101.25) but did not really support stocks higher. Credit markets did not buy the exuberance in stocks either. What today's ramp appears to have been was a gap-fill for VIX from Friday's dislocation on a day with no macro data to upset the algo stop-run procession. Gold and silver (along with all commodities) overnight but once the US day session opened, the selling began and PMs closed unch. The USD ended down 0.1% led by modest EUR strength (despite ECB jawboning) and AUD weakness (rumors of downgrades). "Most shorted" stocks rallied almost 3% from Friday's lows (when S&P bounced off its 50DMA) as once again a squeeze manufactures broad index pick-ups.

 

No Volume…

 

 

Take a look at the lower pane and see if you guess (given that is relative volume) which is the up-day in stocks and which is the down day…

 

Squeeeeeeze…..

 

and high-beta led the way – durr –

 

Which lifted the S&P 500 into the green for May…

 

VIX played fill-the-gap from Friday and lifted stocks with it…

 

But credit was not playing along at all

 

USDJPY wasn't buying it… (or its beta to stocks was cranked up 11 on Spinal Tap's amplifier)

 

 

The S&P 500 cash caight this bid off the 50DMA once again… but it is not well supported (by volume, credit, bonds, or JPY)…

 

Bonds sold off today after early strength – as Europe closed, bonds started to sell off…

 

Gold and silver pumped into the US open and then dumped to unch…

 

FX markets were quiet aside from AUD as chatter about S&P downgrade comments sparked some weakness…

 

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: Treasury Futures shorts have been unwound in general…

 

Bonus Bonus Chart: Wondering why credit markets are starting to get nervous…

 

 

Bonus Bonus Bonus Chart: Peak Complacency according to SocGen's Andrew Lapthorne…




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Judge Strikes Down Oregon Ban on Same-Sex Marriage Recognition

Not even same-sex couples are immune to awkward height differentials when dancing.You’d think a state with a
progressive reputation like Oregon would be all about the gay
marriage train, but that’s not the case. Actually, some counties
within the state did start issuing marriage licenses to gay couples
in 2004,
but then a ballot initiative passed prohibiting same-sex marriage
recognition in the state.

But another federal judge’s ruling today has, rather predictably
at this point, struck
down Oregon’s ban
. Furthermore, government officials in Oregon
are not going to appeal the judge’s rulings, and the judge rejected
an effort by the National Organization for Marriage to intervene to
protect the law, meaning the battle’s apparently over in Oregon.
The order is effective immediately.

Chris Geidner at BuzzFeed notes that this is the 12th ruling
against gay marriage bans since the Supreme Court last year struck
down the part of the Defense of Marriage Act that allowed the
federal government to refuse to recognize same-sex unions in states
where they had been legalized. He also posted the ruling here.

Following up on other recent gay marriage news: In Arkansas, the
state’s Supreme Court has
instituted a stay
on gay marriages there pending the state’s
appeal. A judge
struck down
the state’s ban on May 9 and did not issue a stay.
As a result, there have been several hundred licenses handed out to
same-sex couples in Arkansas. That all ended on Friday (following
some additional complications over a separate law that forbid
clerks from handing out same-sex marriage licenses. The judge
struck that law down, too).

And in Utah, where the state is also appealing a federal judge
striking down their marriage ban, the state has ordered a halt on
issuing birth certificates for
same-sex parent adoptions
. The state’s attorney general
contends that recognizing same-sex adoptions should also be put on
hold and the state should not recognize same-sex partners as legal
parents while the state appeals the marriage decision.

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The Deadhead Who Got Life for Mailing LSD—and Five Other Leading Candidates for Clemency

When he pleaded guilty to LSD
distribution in 1993, Timothy Tyler, a 24-year-old
Deadhead, had no idea he would be going to federal prison for the
rest of his life. As his sister, Carrie Tyler-Stoafer, observes in
a
new video
about the case, there is no rational reason for a
defendant in Tyler’s position to accept a plea deal that calls for
a life sentence. Based on advice from his inexperienced public
defender, Tyler thought pleading guilty would reduce his sentence
to 21 years. If that had been true, he would be free by now. But
because of two prior convictions for selling small amounts of LSD,
pleading guilty to mailing a confidential informant more than 10
grams (including the weight of the paper) on two different
occasions triggered not one but two mandatory life sentences
without the possibility of parole.

“I was in shock that someone who was a nonviolent person, who
didn’t hurt people, who was real peaceful and honest…could get
life without the possibility of parole,” says Tyler-Stoafer.
“Murderers get 20 years…You could rob a bank and get 10
years…You could kidnap someone and get 10, 12 years….[You can]
do all kinds of evil things and still get out of prison
someday.”

Tyler, whose story was included in a
2013 ACLU report
on life sentences for nonviolent offenders,
has been behind bars since 1993. His only hope of going free seems
to lie with President Barack Obama, who has used his clemency power
to shorten just 10 sentences so far but reportedly
plans
to issue “hundreds, perhaps thousands” more commutations
by the end of his second term. The video about Tyler, produced and
directed by
Phil Lee
, is part of planned documentary, Locked
Up
, focusing on Tyler and five other nonviolent drug
offenders who are serving life sentences. Lee, who is
raising money
on Kickstarter for the project, is about halfway
toward his goal of $45,000.

Until he read about Tyler’s case last fall, Lee says, he did not
realize you could receive a life sentence for a “crime” that
violates no one’s rights. “I had no idea that was even possible in
our society!” he says. “I am afraid much of the public has no idea
as well….Everything we can do to generate publicity on this issue
can help sway opinion and raise awareness.”

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America’s Most Popular And Best-Paying Majors

Over the past month, the topic of how valuable a college education is has been extensively dissected by everyone from the San Fran Fed to Pew Research Center. The conclusion, contrary to what the Federal Reserve would like everyone to believe as Americans scramble to load up on hundreds of billions more in cheap student debt, is that a college education is certainly worthwhile… to those who can afford it outright without getting in debt. However, for those unlucky to have been born with a silver spoon, the reality is far bleaker and the conclusion is that a college graduate household, on average, tends to have a lower net worth around the age of 40, than non-college graduates without debt.

However, since a Keynesian economy can only operate as long as there is a net infusion of new debt, even if it is the lowest quality and least discretionary (if only in theory) debt – the kind used to pay for tuition – this nuance is largely ignored by statist apparatchiks who extoll the virtues of the opportunties presented by a college degree, ignoring the unpleasant reality of what it means to have record student debt in a time when the US economy is barely growing at a 2% rate, and when one needs a piece of paper with a college stamp on it to get a foot in the door for any job, let alone the best paying ones (in the process making tenured economist professors who perpetuate this status quo, even richer).

But only focusing on the big picture averages ignores something even more important: what fields of study do American concentrate on – because obviously the salary of a business grad is vastly different from that of a computer science specialist from that of a teacher, and thus – what are the most popular majors? And, just as importantly, what is the average salary by discipline?

For the first answer, we go to a NPR analysis which recently laid out the history of popularity of various majors over the past 4 decades. What it found was the the top 5 most popular majors for the most recently available class, that of 2011, is the following (as % of total grads):

  • Business: 21.38%
  • Health professions: 9.53%
  • Psychology: 6.53%
  • Education: 6.17%
  • Art and performance: 5.58%

Here is the full breakdown (with a drill down after the jump):

NPR notes the following:

  • The persistence of business. Business majors, which include accounting, marketing, operations and real estate, grew even more popular over the past several decades. One in 5 college grads now gets a degree in the field.
  • The decline of the education major. The education degree saw a dramatic decline, falling from 21 percent of all graduates in 1970 to just 6 percent in 2011. Does this mean there’s a huge shortage of teachers? Not necessarily — it just means that far fewer students who go on to be teachers actually graduate with an education degree. According to the Department of Education, as recently as 1999 roughly two-thirds of new teachers graduated with an undergraduate degree in education. By 2009, that figure fell to just half.

     

  • The rise of health professions. Over the past decade, the health care sector added jobs month after month, even when jobs were disappearing elsewhere in the economy. And the field is projected to add lots more jobs in the coming decade. So it makes sense that the share of students majoring in health-related fields (like nursing, pre-med and physical therapy) rose sharply in the past decade. Roughly 1 in 10 college grads now gets a health-related degree.

That answers the first part: what do Americans study in college.

As for the second part, which majors pay the best wages, we go to the April 2014 edition of the National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE). The details are as follows:

The reporting year for the college Class of 2014 begins with an overall average starting salary of $45,473. Although this salary is 1.2 percent higher than the April 2013 starting salary of $44,928 reported for the Class of 2013, the increase is considerably lower than the more than 5 percent increase predicted for graduates at that time. This means, starting salaries for the newest crop of college graduates appear to be leveling.

 

In examining the average salaries by discipline, similar evidence is revealed. The percent changes within each category for 2014 are notably lower than they were in April 2013, ranging from nearly flat for business degrees to less than a 4 percent increase in salaries for health sciences graduates. (See Figure 1.) In contrast, the first report for Class of 2013 graduates showed percent changes in the broad categories that ranged from nearly 2 percent to as high as almost 10 percent.

And in table and chart format:

 

The summary: is college uniformly bad (or good)? Absolutely not: the answer depends on one’s initial financial situation, what one studies and majors in, and finally how one applies said knowledge. However, all else equal, is it wise to incur over $100,000 of debt for a humanities major paying a low $30,000 wage? Absolutely not.




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