Canada Releases Atrocious Jobs Data; Then Revises It Above The Highest Estimate Following Public Outcry

A week ago, Canada released a jobs number that was a simply put a disaster: instead of creating the 20,000 jobs analysts had expected, the country’s Statistics bureau reported that a tiny 200 had been added in the month of July, following a drop of 9,400K the month before. This promptly led to screams of pain and howls of bloody murder – after all the data is clearly not allowed to show negative trends: as the Globe and Mail reported, National Bank chief economist Stéfane Marion was among the more optimistic forecasters, with an expectation that July will actually show a net gain of 30,000 jobs and who immediately took offense with the report.  “That was mind-boggling,” he said. “These are numbers we don’t see outside recessions. I just don’t believe we’re in a recession, so therefore I would expect the full-time employment numbers to be [higher].”

And sure enough, since one can’t possibly have a recession in a centrally-planned world, just hours after the release, and following the outcry from the cognitive dissonance, Statistics Canada yielded to pressure for a correction and promptly admitted it had made a mistake and was forced to correct its report. However instead of pulling a laughable ISM “seasonal adjustment glitch” excuse, the agency said it failed to count workers who should have been categorized as full-time employees, even though it clearly did count most full-time employees. Just not those that were critical to keep the illusion going.

Which is why this morning it was take two for the Canada jobs print, which was as follows: In July, Canada employment increased 41.7K in July according to Statistics Canada‘s second attempt, from -9.4K in prior month. This was about 41K higher than the previous “erroneous” print, and double the original estimate: high enough to make everyone happy. In fact, it was so high, it surpassed the highest range of the forecast, which topped out at 41.4K based on 20 economists.

The biggest variable was in the net change in full time employment, which dropped by -18.1K in July from 33.5K in prior month. This compared to an original print of -59.7K in the “erroneous” number. Offsetting the weak, if revised, full-time jobs number was part time employment which rose 59.9K in July from -43.0K in prior month. Obamacare now in Canada too? The good news, this was “less” than the original part-time report of +60.0K.

Other revisions:

  • Private employment increased 54.6K in July from -21.0K in prior month; private employment was originally reported as +26.3K
  • Public employment increased 24.2K in July from -11.9K in prior month; public employment was originally reported as +3.2K
  • Self employment fell 37K in July from 23.4K in prior month; self employment was originally reported as -29.2K

In other words, Canada mysterioualy had a swing of over 67K self-employed jobs in the month. Congratulations.

And so on. The bottom line: it is increasingly becoming the case that “unpleasant” official economic numbers are released, they show ugly “recessionary” data, and are subsequently revised much higher to stem the public outcry as analysts scream “bloody recession.” Rinse, repeat… At least until the revisions can no longer mask the actual truth of the underlying data.

As for Canada Statistics, it was confident this wholesale, and very laughable error, was an “isolated incident.” At least until next time.




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StealthFlation Defined

Brought to you by Bruno de Landevoisin @ StealthFlation , Stop by for Shelter from the Storm

 

An intractable economic condition that inevitably arises as unlimited units of currency compulsively pursue nonproductive wealth assets, in a grossly over-leveraged economy which has been artificially reflated in a desperate and misguided attempt by monetary authorities to synthetically engineer growth via extreme monetization.   Preventing the real economy on the ground from seeking the healthy normalization and natural balance of free market forces necessary for genuine productive economic growth.

 

Also known as; wishful thinking, and robbing Peter to pay Paul.

Qe Cartoon 2

This entirely synthesized approach to capital formation has brought us the following disastrous results:

 

1)  Stealth incendiary inflationary risks to the economy via latent money velocity
2)  Repeat massive asset bubble formation dislocations
3)  Gross misallocation of real  investment capital, stifling the crucial SME sector
4)  Excessive market volatility which stymies business development and trade
5)  Lethargic economic activity
6)  Massive off-shoring of the manufacturing base
7)  Facilitated fantastic fiscal deficit spending sprees
8)  Decreases income & job growth
9)  Extreme income inequality
10)  Eviscerates the very essence of money itself




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Ebola Outbreak “Moving Faster” Than Reported Cases Suggest, WHO Warns May Be Far Worse

The outbreak of Ebola virus disease in West Africa continues to escalate, with 1975 cases and 1069 deaths reported from Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone, according to the WHO, but warns that “there is evidence that the number of reported cases and deaths vastly underestimate the magnitude of the outbreak.” While Nigeria remains ‘contained’ for now, Ireland now has its first suspected case of Ebola according to The Journal. What is perhaps most concerning is Doctors Without Borders warn the ebola outbreak is “moving faster” than they can handle.

 

 

The WHO warns…

Elsewhere, the outbreak is expected to continue for some time. WHO’s operational response plan extends over the next several months. Staff at the outbreak sites see evidence that the numbers of reported cases and deaths vastly underestimate the magnitude of the outbreak.

As The Journal reports,

THE HSE HAS said today that it has not been notified of any official suspected case of Ebola in a Dublin hospital – but that it could not rule out that the virus was being looked at earlier this morning as one of several possibilities for a patient being treated there.

TheJournal.ie has confirmed with hospital sources this morning that a patient who had recently travelled abroad was being investigated as having a suspected virus. He is suffering from flu-like symptoms and consultants had been looking at Ebola as one of the possibilities.

As Bloomberg notes,

aid groups such as Doctors Without Borders, with almost 700 workers in the affected region, have criticized the WHO and governments including the U.S. for failing to recognize the devastation being caused since January by the spread of the deadly virus. It’s the first time Ebola has appeared in West Africa.

Interestingly Fujifilm says it has over 20,000 doses of potential Ebola vaccine…

Co. produced drug when it filed data to seek approval to treat flu in Japan, spokesman Takao Aoki says by telephone today.

 

Co. has capability to mass-produce drug at factory in Toyama prefecture in Japan: Fujifilm

 

Co. told World Health Organization it can supply drug if requested: Fujifilm

*  *  *

Bloomberg Roundup:
• Latest WHO death toll: 1,069
• Liberia minister warns of price hikes on medicated soap, chlorine, chloride
• Ireland may have first suspected Ebola case, Journal.ie reports
• NOTE: Irish Independent says no confirmed case seen
• Spread in West Africa worse than cases suggest, WHO says
• Athletes from Ebola-affected regions banned from some Youth Olympic events
• Togo PM denies religious leaders’ claims of Ebola in country
• African air links at risk as virus ravages region
• Ebola stigma increases survivors’ burden in long recovery effort




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Producer Prices Slide Driven By Biggest Plunge In Energy Since November 2013, Core PPI Rises Most Since May

Following another monthly surge in the June PPI print, when it rose by 0.4%, or the second highest amount in a year, the July headline reading was a far tamer 0.1%. This was driven entirely by the plunge in energy prices (supposedly due to the Iraq military incursion and the “de-escalation” of the Ukraine civil war), which resulted in a -0.6% plunge in energy costs, which was the biggest monthly drop in over a year, matching the decline recorded in November of 2013. Offsetting the energy drop was a 0.4% increase in food prices, following two months of -0.2% decline. When stripping the volatile, and easily manipulated asset prices linked to brent, crude and the like, core PPI ex food and energy rose by 0.2%: the highest since March.

The monthly breakdown by component:

The breakdown:

Final demand services: The index for final demand services inched up 0.1 percent in July after rising 0.3 percent in the prior month. Leading the July increase, the index for final demand transportation and warehousing services moved up 0.5 percent. Margins for final demand trade services advanced 0.2 percent. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) The index for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing was unchanged.

 

Product detail: In July, prices for truck transportation of freight climbed 0.7 percent. Margins for automotive fuels and lubricants retailing and for apparel, footwear, and accessories retailing increased. The indexes for portfolio management and passenger car rental also moved higher. In contrast, margins for machinery and equipment wholesaling fell 1.7 percent in July. The indexes for loan services (partial); apparel wholesaling; and health, beauty, and optical goods retailing also decreased.

 

Final demand goods: Prices for final demand goods were unchanged in July after moving up 0.5 percent in June. In July, a 0.2-percent rise in the index for final demand goods less foods and energy and a 0.4-percent increase in prices for final demand foods offset a 0.6-percent decline in the index for final demand energy.

 

Product detail: In July, among prices for final demand goods, the index for pharmaceutical preparations rose 1.0 percent. Prices for meats, processed poultry, residential electric power, and light motor trucks also moved higher. Conversely, gasoline prices fell 2.1 percent in July. The indexes for soybeans, fresh and dry vegetables, grains, and gold and platinum jewelry also decreased.

 

Special grouping, Final demand less foods, energy, and trade: Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.2 in July following a 0.2-percent advance in June and no change in May. (The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services represents about two-thirds of final demand.)

 

Special grouping, Finished goods: Prices for finished goods inched up 0.1 percent in July after a 0.7- percent advance in June. (The finished goods index represents about two-thirds of final demand goods, through the exclusion of the weight for government purchases and exports. The finished goods index represents about one-quarter of overall final demand.) The July increase was led by prices for finished consumer foods, which climbed 1.0 percent. The index for finished goods less foods and energy edged up 0.1 percent. In contrast, prices for finished consumer energy goods declined 0.7 percent. Within finished goods, rising prices for meats, residential electric power, processed poultry, pharmaceutical preparations, and light motor trucks outweighed falling prices for gasoline, fresh and dry vegetables, residential natural gas, and gold and platinum jewelry.

The only question is whether Yellen will look at the rising Core PPI and consider it a less “noisy” indicator of the Fed’s policy aftermath. The answer: as long as the S&P is below 2,150, a resounding no.




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Poll: 73% of Americans Say Transportation Spending Is Inefficient, Would Prefer to Pay for Highway Repairs With Tolls Rather Than Taxes

Air travelers are worried about missile strikes and don’t think
new airport security fees will increase safety, but are confident
in the TSA  

The new Reason-Rupe national telephone poll of 1,000 adults
finds 73 percent of Americans believe the government spends
existing transportation funding inefficiently. Just 21 percent of
Americans think government spends transportation money
efficiently.

Nevertheless, 46 percent of Americans think the federal
government needs to spend more money on transportation
infrastructure than it does today, 30 percent think the government
needs to spend about the same amount as now, and 21 percent believe
the federal government should spend less on transportation.

Reason-Rupe finds 85 percent of Americans oppose raising the
federal gas tax. Mileage-based user fees are often discussed as the
future of transportation funding, however 72 percent of Americans
tell Reason-Rupe they oppose eliminating the gas tax and replacing
it with a fee based on the number of miles driven. Only 23 percent
favor replacing the gas tax with a mileage fee.

When asked about a specific funding challenge: paying for needed
repairs and the expansion of existing Interstate highways, 58
percent of Americans say they’d rather pay for those projects with
tolls, while 32 percent would prefer to pay for them by raising the
fuel tax.

When asked to choose their top priority for transportation
spending, a majority of Americans—55 percent—chose highways and
streets, but a large number (38%) ranked transit first, and 5
percent put bicycle and walking trails atop the list.

Air Travel

As the investigation into the Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 crash
in Ukraine continues, 47 percent of Americans say they are
“somewhat” or “very” worried that terrorists might shoot down a
passenger plane in the United States.  Fifty-two percent say
they are “not too” worried or “not at all” worried about missile
attacks on US passenger planes.

Forty-two percent of those surveyed say they’d be willing to pay
higher airline ticket prices to arm US passenger planes with
anti-missile technology, while 54 percent would not be willing to
pay higher ticket prices.

Reason-Rupe finds that Americans don’t believe the recent
increase in airport security fees will result in an increase in
safety: 74 percent say giving the Transportation Security
Administration more funding “wont make a difference” in safety.
Twenty-one percent say the higher fees will make air travel “more
safe.”

When it comes to the TSA’s ability to find knives, guns and
bombs, 52 percent of Americans say they are “somewhat” confident
that the TSA would find the weapons, 24 percent are “very”
confident in the TSA, 14 percent are  “not too confident,” and
9 percent are “not at all confident” in the TSA’s ability to spot
weapons.

With some US airports now using private airport security
screeners instead of TSA screeners, 46 percent of Americans think
the private screeners will be about the same as TSA screeners, 31
percent think private screeners will be more cost-effective than
the TSA, and 18 percent feel private screeners will be less
cost-effective than TSA.

The Reason-Rupe national telephone poll, executed
by Princeton Survey Research Associates International,
conducted live interviews with 1000 adults on cell phones (500) and
landlines (500) August 6-10, 2014. The poll’s margin of error is
+/-3.7%. Full poll results can be found here,
including poll toplines (pdf) 
and crosstabs (xls). 

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A.M. Links: Fifth Night of Protests in Ferguson, Mo., U.S. Says Yazidis Mostly Rescued From Mount Sinjar, Next Step Toward Robot Revolution Taken

  • Robot Equal Rights PosterProtesters in
    Ferguson, Missouri     demonstrated for a fifth straight night
    against the police shooting of 18-year-old Michael Brown over the
    weekend, with police remaining mostly calm. The State Highway
    Patrol has assumed responsibility for monitoring the protests and
    is also overseeing the local police force. Vigils were alo held for
    Michael Brown in 90 cities, with protests over Brown’s killing, and
    local incidents of police brutality, in places like
    New York City    ,
    Washington, DC    , and
    Baltimore    . The
    Department of Justice     has begun to interview witnesses to the
    shooting. The
    Ferguson Police Department     plans on releasing the name of the
    cop who killed Brown later today. An “Anonymous” group on Twitter
    released a name yesterday, but it was of a police dispatcher in

    St. Ann, Missouri    , whose stepmother now fears for his
    life.
  • Most of the Yazidis trapped by the Islamic State on
    Mount Sinjar     in Iraq have escaped through a corridor set up by
    Kurdish and Yazidi fighters. After Special Forces conducted a recon
    mission at the mountain, the United
    States     says there are less refugees left there than previously
    believed and said it was unlikely that the U.S. would launch a
    mission to rescue them.
    Yazidi     leaders dispute this, saying there are at least 10,000
    refugees left on the mountain. Iraqi Prime Minister
    Nouri Al-Maliki    , meanwhile, finally agreed to hand over power
    to his nominated successor.
  • Two leaders of the pro-Russian separatists in eastern
    Ukraine     have resigned as Ukraine’s armed forces appear to be
    gaining the upper hand in the conflict. A convoy from Russia
    purporting to carry humanitarian aid to Ukraine is parked on the
    Russian side of the border.
  • David Gregory will be replaced by
    Chuck Todd     as host of NBC News’ Meet the Press.
  • Major League Baseball’s chief operations officer,
    Rob Manfred    , was selected as baseball’s newest
    commissioner.
  • Scientists at
    Harvard     have developed miniature robots that can swarm by the
    thousands, displaying how simple complex self-organizing behavior
    can be.

Follow Reason and Reason 24/7 on
Twitter, and like us on Facebook. You
can also get the top stories mailed to you—sign up
here.

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Kurt Loder Reviews Frank and The Giver

Frank is a strange and wonderful new
movie drawn from an even stranger and not quite so wonderful
real-life story. It’s a way-offbeat indie exercise, and the fact
that Michael Fassbender, of all people, was drawn to star in it,
with his famous face hidden inside a big fake head, is strangely
wonderful in itself, writes Kurt Loder. The film’s inspiration is
the late Chris Sievey, a pop-punky English musician who became a
cult figure in the 1980s and early ’90s as Frank Sidebottom, the
leader of a provincial club band that specialized in ricky-tick
Queen and Beatles covers. To play this role, Sievey concealed his
identity within a beach-ball-size papier-mâché head, which he wore
both onstage and, frequently, offstage as well. The head’s
painted-on googly-eyed expression could be read as either
music-hall jollity or something a little more sinister, and
whatever might have compelled Sievey to hide behind it remains
unclear. Loder also reviews The Giver. 

View this article.

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Video: Ferguson, Police Militarization, and the Culture of Harassment

On August 13, 2014, Ferguson Police
Department (FPD) and St. Charles County Sheriff’s
Department (SCCSD) dressed in riot gear fired rubber bullets
and tear gas at Ferguson, Missouri residents protesting the death
of 18-year-old Michael Brown. An officer from the Ferguson Police
Department allegedly
shot Brown to death on August 9.

But by the night of August 14, things looked very different in
this small Missouri suburb after the governor took security duties
out of the hands of FPD and SCCSD and handed it over to the
Missouri
State Highway Patrol (MSHP).


“We are going to have a different approach and have the approach
that we’re in this together,” said Capt. Ronald S. Johnson of
MSHP at a press conference. Johnson
walked with protesters and posed for pictures with them later
in the day.

While the atmosphere was free of a militarized police presence,
and the mood of protesters was borderline celebratory, the
resentment towards the Ferguson Police Department was
palpbable.

Protesters told Reason TV that Brown’s death was in
line with a pattern of harrasment from police in the St. Louis
area, ranging from excessive tickets and fines to overly aggressive
officers. Many also said that the show of quasi-military force in
response to the protest may have damaged the relationship between
the people and the police beyond repair.

“We are not at war here. This looked like the demilitarized
zone,” says protester Earling McAllister Thomas.

Watch the video above. Appoximately 3 minutes. Produced by Zach
Weissmueller and Paul Detrick.

Click the link below for downloadable versions, and subscribe to
Reason TV’s YouTube
channel for more content like this.

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Empire Manufacturing Tumbles Most In 2 Years, Biggest Miss In 4 Months

Despite serial extrapolators expectation that last month’s 4-year high Empire Manufacturing data would continue to rise, it didn’t – instead falling by the most since June 2012 to 14.69 (from 25.6). This is the biggest miss in 4 months. The number of employees and new orders tumbled as inventories collapsed. Of course, when current sentiment plunges, hope comes alive… the surge in ‘hope’ for 6 months from now to its highest since January 2012.

Empire Manufacturing plunges…

 

But hope soars…

 

Charts: Bloomberg




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The Gold & Silver Morning Smackdown Is Back

Despite NATO’s warnings of Russian escalation in Ukraine, 8amET was a far bigger catalyst for precious metals this morning as the once ubiquitous morning meltdown is back. With gold relatively flat and Treasury yields down 10bps after a 60 point S&P surge, maybe this is catch-down but the heavy-volume plunge in Gold and Silver is notable in that USDJPY appeared to jerk higher at the same time.

 

 




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