A.M. Links: Ebola in New York, Maybe Terorrism Too, Boko Haram Kidnaps More Girls

  • Escape from New YorkDr. Craig
    Spencer
    of New York City, who treated Ebola patients in Guinea,
    was diagnosed with the disease. Mayor
    Bill de Blasio
    says the city is safe, which is true, but not
    because of him.
  • The gunman who killed a soldier in Ottawa, a recent convert to
    Islam, had attempted to go to
    Syria
    to join rebels there, according to the Royal Canadian
    Mounted Police, who say he had no ties to another man who killed a
    soldier in Quebec last week.
  • A man in
    New York City
    attacked two cops with a hatchet before police
    fatally shot him. The cops also unintentionally shot a 29-year-old
    woman. Police are investigating possible terror links.
  • Boko Haram kidnapped 25 more girls in an attack on a remote
    town in
    Nigeria
    after the government claimed to have negotiated a
    temporary ceasefire that would include the release of more than 200
    girls kidnapped earlier this year.
  • The European Union has calculated that the United Kingdom owes
    it 2.1 billion more euros on top of the 10.9 billion it contributes
    annually because of its relative economic health.
  • The governor of the Mexican state of Guerrero,
    Angel Aguirre
    , resigned amid revelations that 42 students in
    Iguala were disappeared by local cops working with drug gangs.

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Who Really Likes the Police? Older, Richer, White, Conservative Republicans.

Americans like the police, but
older, more affluent, white, conservative
Republicans really like the police. Fully 72 percent of
Americans say they have a favorable view of the police, and 24
percent have an unfavorable view, according to the latest
Reason-Rupe poll
. However, favorability has declined 6 points
since the question was asked in April earlier this year. It’s
possible greater public awareness of police
militarization
 in the aftermath
of the Ferguson, MO protests
 has undermined public
confidence.

While majorities of Americans have a favorable opinion of the
police, intensity of support varies widely across groups. Most
striking are differences across race/ethnicity.

Fully 80 percent of white Americans have a positive view of the
police, with 43 percent who are veryfavorable. However only 52
percent of black and Hispanic Americans share this favorable view,
and only 2 in 10 have a strongly favorable opinion of the police.
Forty-three percent of African-Americans and 46 percent of Latinos
have an unfavorable view of the police, compared to 17 percent of
Caucasians.

Democrats (66%) and independents (60%) are also considerably
less favorable of the police compared to Republicans (85%).
However, different racial compositions within the political parties
explain part of the difference. Only 55 percent of nonwhite
Democrats like the police, compared to 75 percent of white
Democrats, and 86 percent of white Republicans.

While liberals tend to be more distrustful of the police than
conservatives—fiscal conservatives are themselves divided. Using
the Reason-Rupe
typology
, social conservatives (51%) are more likely than
libertarians (41%) to have a strongly favorable view. Only 30
percent of liberals and 35 percent of communitarians share
conservatives’ strongly favorable attitudes toward the police.

Older and wealthier Americans are also more likely to like the
police. For instance, 83 percent of seniors are very favorable
toward the police, and fully 50 percent
are very favorable. In contrast, 60 percent of 18-29
years are favorable, and 30 percent are very
favorable. Similarly by income, 83 percent of households
making more than $90,000 a year have a favorable view, including 47
percent with a strongly favorable opinion. However, considerably
fewer (65%) among those making less than $45,000 annually share a
favorable view of the police, including only 30 percent with a
strongly favorable view.

A standard statistical procedure to simultaneously account for
basic demographic characteristics finds that being Caucasian,
higher income, and from the South are the strongest statistically
significant predictors of support for the police, followed by being
a Republican, and a woman.

As to be expected, those who have a favorable view of police
officers are most likely to think officers are generally held
accountable for misconduct (61%), only use lethal force when
necessary (59%), and believe the criminal justice system is fair to
all races (51%). Conversely, those with a negative view of the
police are far less likely to believe police officers are held
accountable (22%), use lethal force only when necessary (22%), and
say the justice system lacks racial bias (26%).

The Reason-Rupe national telephone poll, executed
by Princeton Survey Research Associates International,
conducted live interviews with 1004 adults on cell phones (503) and
landlines (501) October 1-6, 2014. The poll’s margin of error
is +/-3.8%. Full poll results can be found here including
poll toplines (pdf)
and crosstabs (xls). 

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FCKH8 Uses Little Girls As Props in Abhorrent Viral Video About Rape

FCKH8What’s the worst way to fight sexism?
Certainly this deeply disturbing viral video, produced by
progressive clothing line FCKH8, is a serious contender.

The
video
has been panned—by all people of taste—for its startling
use of young girls, ages 6-13, who are made to rattle off the usual
false statistics about sexual assault and the gender pay gap. The
video’s gimmick is that the girls are dressed up as polite
princesses, but launch into profane tirades to make their points. A
sampling (each line is spoken by a different kid):

“What is more offensive? — A little girl saying fuck
— Or the fucking unequal and sexist way — Society treats
girls and women? Here’s some words more fucked up — than the word
‘fuck’ — pay inequality!

As expected, the sight of little girls cursing like drunken
sailors
enraged
some social conservatives. But with respect to my own
libertarian sensibilities, the swearing is by far the least
offensive thing about the video.

Using kids as props in ideological propaganda videos is
disgusting. It’s inherently exploitative, since there is little
chance the youngest of the girls understands a thing about the
perspective she’s selling. Worse still, the girls are being taught
that screaming expletives at people who disagree with them is an
effective or praiseworthy form of advocacy. As someone who
frequently writes about women’s issues relating to campus due
process, I can say for a fact that the current debate between
far-left feminists and their critics does not need any additional
hysterics. And while I would never deny that a well-timed
fuck or two can help get a point across, cursing shouldn’t
be an 11-year-old’s crutch in a public policy debate.

But worst of all is the actual point the profane princesses are
trying to make about sexism. The almost-certainly-false statistic
about rape makes a groan-inducing appearance: The girls gleefully
count off “One, two, three, four five,” before proclaiming that,
statistically speaking, one of them will be raped. “Which one of us
will it be?” wonders one of the girls. So, in addition to using
kids as props in service of a distorted perspective on feminism,
the video’s producers want a bunch of little girls to think one of
them is going to be raped.

The insanity of it all speaks to the obvious falsehood inherent
in the one-in-five statistic. If two in every ten women actually
experienced sexual assault while at a college, for instance, the
problem would demand immediate intervention, not some
laughably inadequate quibbling
over the definition of consent.
If one in every five cars broke down and caused its driver serious
harm, automobile factories would be condemned as public health
hazards. Similarly, if colleges were veritable production lines of
rape, it would be necessary to shut them down.

Thankfully, the statistic has been
repeatedly debunked
. No, American women don’t have to endure
Somalia-levels of rape; rape has declined substantially in recent
decades and continues to fall. Whatever the severity of the campus
rape problem, it is assuredly not as bad as two biased surveys with
small sample sizes and self-selection problems suggested it
was.

Trying to scare people into believing they are in much greater
danger than they actually are is contemptible. When children are
the targets of such efforts, it’s even worse.

At the end of the video, the ringleaders of this horror show
appear on camera to tell viewers that if they reacted negatively to
the swearing, rather than the sexism, they are part of the problem.
And “fuck that sexist shit,” says one of the kids.

It’s worth keeping in mind that these people probably aren’t as
crazy as they seem. FCKH8 is a brand that uses videos to sell
T-shirts to self-identified progressives—or at least, the kind of
progressives who think buying T-shirts counts as activism, bless
them. I don’t hold FCKH8’s business model against it; selling
T-shirts to rabid anti-capitalists is always good for a laugh
(see:
Guevara, Che
). (Predictably enough, the money-making aspect

was the only thing
Jezebel didn’t like about the
video.)

But for fuck’s sake, don’t use children as props, don’t make
them scream obscenities and lies, and don’t try to frighten them
into thinking they are in imminent danger of being raped.

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Overnight Futures Fail To Ramp As Algos Focus On New York’s First Ever Ebola Case

And just like that, the Ebola panic is back front and center, because after one week of the west African pandemic gradually disappearing from front page coverage and dropping out of sight and out of mind, suddenly Ebola has struck at global ground zero. While the consequences are unpredictable at this point, and a “follow through” infection will only set the fear level back to orange, we applaud whichever central bank has been buying futures (and the USDJPY) because they clearly are betting that despite the first ever case of Ebola in New York, that this will not result in a surge in Ebola scare stories, which as we showed a few days ago, may well have been the primary catalyst for the market freakout in the past month.

For those who missed events last night, a doctor in New York City who recently returned from treating Ebola patients in Guinea has become the first person in New York City to test positive for the virus. Officials told a press conference at Bellevue hospital that they were monitoring 4 people with whom Spencer had contact. His fiancée and two friends had been quarantined, while the fourth person, a taxi driver, was not considered to be at risk

So with Ebola roaring back, many are wondering if the same fears that sent the market turmoiling in late September and early October will also return, most prominently global commodity deflation, slamming the EMs.  In this regard, commodity markets remain relatively tentative nonetheless, WTI crude futures trade in the red in a continuation of recent losses, with BofA seeing downside risks to WTI oil prices over the next three months. In terms of metal specific news, China’s copper production rose to a record high in September of 715,000 tonnes, an increase of 5% M/M and analysts at Goldman Sachs say that iron ore prices should remain supported in the short term, adding there is no obvious catalyst that would drive prices outside the recent range.

In other market news, Asian equities traded mostly higher, albeit off their best levels following notable weakness observed across US equity futures after confirmation that a patient who was being tested for Ebola in NYC tested positive for the disease. Nikkei 225 (+1%) shrugged off the negative sentiment seen across US futures with the index supported by yesterday’s movements in USD/JPY, positive Wall Street close and the WSJ report of potential further BoJ easing.

European equities opened in a sea of red as participants remained cautious regarding the overnight confirmation of the first Ebola case in NY which subsequently weighed on US equity futures. This sentiment proceeded to weigh on travel and leisure related names with consumer staples the underperforming sector in Europe, while a negative pre-market report for BASF (after they cut their 2015 EBITDA forecast) has also weighed on chemical names. The now traditional surge in the USDJPY at Europe open, as a result of central bank stabilization, managed to push US equity futures somewhat higher and well off their overnight lows.

The only thing on the US docket today is New Home Sales at 10:00 am.

Bulletin Headline Summary from Bloomberg and RanSquawk

  • European equities trade in the red amid renewed concerns over Ebola after the first case in NY was confirmed overnight.
  • GBP outperformed FX markets in European trade following the UK GDP release confirming the longest uninterrupted run of growth in three years, although GBP/USD has since pared these gains heading into the NA open.
  • Looking ahead, today sees the release of US new home sales as well as a host of sovereign debt ratings including Germany, Italy, Spain, Russia and Austria all due for release.
  • Treasuries gain, paring week’s decline, as equity-index futures fall after New York City doctor tests positive for Ebola, first case in most populous U.S. city.
  • The doctor is being treated in an isolation unit at Bellevue Hospital Center in Manhattan; officials are monitoring those who were with him as he traveled on the subway, went bowling and had close contact with several people
  • U.K. GDP rose 0.7% in 3Q vs 0.9% in 2Q, matching median estimate in Bloomberg survey; slowdown comes as BoE policy makers become more concerned about threats from the weakness in the euro area, Britain’s biggest trading partner
  • Britain’s decades-long battle over the EU budget flared up again with Prime Minister Cameron resisting a call for the U.K. to pay more to finance the EU’s institutions in Brussels
  • The U.K. Independence Party will test its ability to win over voters from across the political spectrum next week when it seeks to seize control of a police authority in the opposition Labour Party’s political heartland
  • At noon in Frankfurt on Sunday, ECB plans to release results of its stress tests of currency bloc’s 130 biggest banks
  • After two previous tests run by European Banking Authority didn’t reveal problems at lenders that later failed, the ECB has staked its reputation on getting the exercise right
  • Denmark won’t back a proposal to split Europe’s biggest banks as the region’s first country to enforce bail-in rules questions the value of more regulation
  • China’s new-home prices fell in all but one city monitored by the government last month as the easing of property curbs failed to stem a market downturn amid tight credit.
  • Sovereign yields mostly lower. Asian stocks mixed, with Nikkei higher, Shanghai lower; European stock, U.S. equity- index futures fall. Brent crude falls 1.1%;  copper gains, gold little changed

US Event Calendar

  • 10:00am: New Home Sales, Sept., est. 470k (prior 504k)
  • New Home Sales m/m, Sept., est. -6.8% (prior 18%

ASIA

JGBs traded up 12 ticks at 146.47 underpinned by spill-over buying in USTs on the US Ebola reports. Prices were further supported by the BoJ offering to buy JPY 1.05trl of government debt incl. JPY 400bln in 5-10yr maturities. Asian equities traded mostly higher, albeit off their best levels following notable weakness observed across US equity futures after confirmation that a patient who was being tested for Ebola in NYC tested positive for the disease. Nikkei 225 (+1%) shrugged off the negative sentiment seen across US futures with the index supported by yesterday’s movements in USD/JPY, positive Wall Street close and the WSJ report of potential further BoJ easing.

FIXED INCOME & EQUITIES

European equities opened in a sea of red as participants remained cautious regarding the overnight confirmation of the first Ebola case in NY which subsequently weighed on US equity futures. This sentiment proceeded to weigh on travel and leisure related names with consumer staples the underperforming sector in Europe, while a negative pre-market report for BASF (after they cut their 2015 EBITDA forecast) has also weighed on chemical names.

Nonetheless, the periphery has provided some light at the end of the tunnel for European stocks with the FTSE MIB the notable outperformer following Italian press reporting that Banca Monte dei Paschi would not sell stock to fill any potential capital shortfall. However, an Italian Banks Association Official said it will not be simple to interpret results of ECB stress tests and they could lead to market volatility. Elsewhere in Europe, equities still remain in the red, which has subsequently supported fixed income products, albeit amid particularly light volumes (173k in the Bund).

In terms of major US stocks news, focus will be on Microsoft and Amazon after their after-market updates, with Microsoft seen higher after-market and Amazon lower. Attention will also turn towards Pfizer after they authorized a new USD 11bln share buyback program.

FX

In FX markets, GBP/USD was the notable outperformer following the UK advanced Q3 GDP release, which came in-line with expectations (Q/Q 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.7%) but provided some relief to those who had been looking for a lower reading, in line with the recent slew of weak UK data. The ONS also said the release marked the longest uninterrupted run of growth in three years, which subsequently saw GBP/USD break above yesterday’s highs of 1.6060 after tripping stops, although has since pared some of these gains. The RUB has continued to weaken in European trade ahead of the S&P’s rating announcement for the country and following RBS’ forecast yesterday that the sovereign would be cut to junk.

COMMODITIES

Commodity markets remain relatively tentative with all attention now turning towards how the US will react to the confirmation of the overnight news of the first case of Ebola in New York. Nonetheless, WTI crude futures trade in the red in a continuation of recent losses, with BofA seeing downside risks to WTI oil prices over the next three months. In terms of metal specific news, China’s copper production rose to a record high in September of 715,000 tonnes, an increase of 5% M/M and analysts at Goldman Sachs say that iron ore prices should remain supported in the short term, adding there is no obvious catalyst that would drive prices outside the recent range.

* * *

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight recap

The gyrations of markets are much easier to fathom these days and after a week of a spectacular recovery in risk we thought it would be interesting to start with the latest flow numbers in HY which came out overnight. Overall it seem HY fund flows at the moment are following the (expected) future growth as US funds saw inflows whilst Western European funds suffered another week of outflows. Per EPFR’s data, the US HY mutual funds saw their strongest week since mid-August with $2bn of inflows. This came after outflows last week of $863m. The picture in Western European funds was far less positive, as they experienced $432m of outflows, the 4th week of negative numbers in row. It will be interesting to see whether yesterday’s PMI’s have any impact on these patterns.

Indeed trading over the last 24 hours has been dominated by the flash PMIs. The day began with the Japanese and Chinese manufacturing PMI’s both coming in ahead of expectation at 52.8 and 50.4 respectively. The bigger market moving numbers though came from the European and US releases later in the day. Whilst the European numbers began disappointingly with a much weaker than expected 47.3 French manufacturing PMI, the stronger than expected 51.8 German manufacturing equivalent managed to turn sentiment around. This was followed by the Eurozone manufacturing PMI which also came in ahead of expectation at 50.7 (49.9 expected). Later in the day the weaker than expected US manufacturing PMI read of 56.2 (vs 57 expected) did not harm sentiment.

At the end of today’s PDF we include our PMI vs equity table again which we’ve now updated for the new European and Asian reads. As we discussed yesterday we generally view this analysis as a guide rather than anything more serious. The main developments given yesterday’s data and market moves are in the European market where Germany has gone from looking relatively ‚fair value? to now being roughly 8% ‚undervalued? thanks to yesterday’s stronger PMI. On the flip side, France has gone from being about 2% ‚undervalued? to now being around 4% overvalued.

Markets reacted very positively to these PMI developments. In Europe the Stoxx 600 rallied +0.7% whilst the Euro Stoxx was up 1.2%. The credit reaction was slightly more muted as iTraxx Main and Xover both tightened by -1bp. US markets were also strong with the S&P500 ending the day up +1.3% whilst in credit CDX IG and HY tightened by -2bps and -10bps respectively. Govvies struggled in the risk-on environment – the Germany and US 10Y rose +3bps and +6bps respectively.

Also helping markets yesterday were relatively upbeat results with Caterpillar a big focus. DB’s Alan Ruskin had an interesting comment yesterday on their Q3 results. He wrote how, “for those looking at Caterpillar’s Q3 results and drawing positive things about the global economy, the actual detail showed a world distinctly lacking in balance, with N.America doing all the ‘heavy lifting’ while China’s and Latam’s comparisons are notably weak.? He pointed out a number of comments in Caterpillar’s Q3 Earnings Release including their statement that they, “expect the Chinese construction machine industry to remain challenged in the near future,” on the one hand whilst on the other they noted how, “sales decreases in Asia/Pacific and Latin America were about offset by increases in North America.” These comments chime in well with the IMF’s last global economic forecasts, which also stressed the role of the US in lifting global growth rates going forward. No pressure then.

Headlines this morning are dominated by the news that overnight a doctor in New York has tested positive for Ebola, the first diagnosed case in the city. S&P futures are trading -0.5% lower as we go to print on the back of this and Asian markets are generally mixed with bourses in Hong Kong, China and Korea moving -0.3%, +0.2% and -0.5% respectively whilst the Nikkei (up +0.8%) is the standout performer on the back of a 0.7% weakening of USDJPY yesterday during European and US trading times . Sentiment hasn’t been helped as China reported disappointing house price data as average prices declined 1.0% relative to August marking a fifth consecutive monthly drop. Meanwhile in Korea, Q3 GDP came in line versus expectations at 0.9% QoQ.

Looking to the day ahead, in Europe we have the November GfK consumer confidence read (expected in at 8), UK advanced Q3 GDP (expected in at +0.7% QoQ) and Italian September wage growth data. Over in the US we have September new home sales (expected in at -6.8% MoM).

Importantly, banks will find out the results of the AQR tests today with the results made public at noon on Sunday. Earlier in the week we had reports from Spanish news source Efe that eleven banks across five nations had supposedly failed the tests including Erste Bank, Banco Popolare and Dexia. However this has been quickly downplayed with a Reuters article quoting an Erste Bank spokesman as saying “Out of the supervisory dialogue we have no indication we won’t pass”. The article also quotes positive comments from senior Cypriot and Spanish officials over confidence that their respective domestic banks should fare well through the tests whilst a further article mentions that the German Bank most at risk of failing, HSH Nordbank, is set to meet the requirements. This will dominate the headlines before Monday morning but don’t be surprised to see more leaks today ahead of this.




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Brickbat: Easily Frightened

Erica Moreno and Katti Putnam are suing the
Michigan Department of Corrections after one of the agency’s
officers shot their dog during a raid. The officers raided their
house looking for a fugitive who actually
lived next door
. One officer entered their backyard and shot
the dog. A neighbor who witnessed the shooting said the dog did not
threaten the officer.

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“Why I Will Not Submit To Medical Martial Law”

Submitted by Brandon Smith of Alt-Market.com,

One of the most dangerous philosophical contentions even amongst liberty movement activists is the conundrum of government force and prevention during times of imminent pandemic. All of us at one time or another have had this debate. If a legitimate viral threat existed and threatened to infect and kill millions of Americans, is it then acceptable for the government to step in, remove civil liberties, enforce quarantines, and stop people from spreading the disease? After all, during a viral event, the decisions of each individual can truly have a positive or negative effect on the rest of society, right? One out of control (or “lone wolf”) citizen/terrorist could reignite a biological firestorm, so, should we not turn to government and forgo certain freedoms in order to achieve the greater good for the greater number?

If the government in question was a proven and honorable institution, then I would say pro-Medical Martial Law arguments might have a leg to stand on. However, this is not the case. In my view, medical martial law is absolutely unacceptable under ANY circumstances, including Ebola, in light of the fact that our current government will be the predominant cause of viral outbreak. That is to say, you DO NOT turn to the government for help when the government is the cause of the problem.

The recent rise of global Ebola is slowly bringing the issue of medical martial law to the forefront of our culture. Charles Krauthammer at The Washington Post recently argued in favor of possible restrictions on individual and Constitutional liberties in the face of a viral pandemic threat.

The CDC now argues that in the case of people who may be potential carriers, or even in the case of people who refuse to undergo screenings, it has the legal authority to dissolve all constitutional protections and essentially imprison (quarantine) an American citizen for as long as they see fit to do so.

The Obama Administration is now using militant terminology in reference to Ebola response, including the formation of “Ebola SWAT Teams” for quick reaction to potential outbreak areas.

In typical socialist fashion, the nurses union 'National Nurses United' has called for Barack Obama to use “executive authority” to take control of all Ebola response protocols in hospitals across the country. Yet another perpetuation of the myth that more government power is the solution.

And finally, the Department of Defense has been tasked to create a military controlled “quick-strike team” to deal with Ebola within U.S. borders. This team will be under the command of none other than Northcom, apparently trampling the Posse Comitatus Act and setting the stage for the rationalized use of military personnel against U.S. citizens under the guise of pandemic prevention.

It should be clear to anyone with half a brain that medical martial law is being quietly prepared, and that the threat of such measures is not a paranoid conspiracy, but a very real possibility. It should also be noted that such provisions are not only the products of the Obama Administration. It was George W. Bush who first created laws intersecting with the World Health Organization's pandemic preparedness planning. These laws include the “overrule of existing legislation or (individual) human rights” in order to quell a viral outbreak, and were originally drafted around the potential of an influenza crisis.

It is this kind of executive overreach that has set precedence for states such as Connecticut to announce a tentative state of emergency with medical martial law restrictions.

I discussed in great detail why Ebola works in favor of establishment elites in my article 'An Ebola Outbreak Would Be Advantageous For Globalists'.

Understand that bureaucrats will come to you with promises of offering a helping hand, hoping that you are afraid enough to accept, but their intentions will not be compassionate. Rather, their intent will be to assert as much dominance over the public as possible during the chaos, and to erase any conception the people may have had in the past that they have inalienable rights.

But going beyond the hidden motives of tyrants, I think it is important to point out that the Center for Disease Control and the federal government in general has already lost all credibility in dealing with Ebola, and therefore, it has lost any authority it may have had in administrating a future response.

Ebola has been officially known to the CDC for over thirty years. Why has the CDC refused for three decades to produce proper care guidelines for hospitals? Medical staff in the U.S. didn't even receive guidelines when the outbreak in Western Africa was obviously progressing out of control.

Why did the CDC leave Thomas Duncan, the very first U.S. Ebola case, in the hands of the Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital, without proper procedures in place to prevent further infection, and without a CDC team present? The CDC has an annual budget of nearly $7 billion. Where is all of this money going if not to stamp out such threats as Ebola?

The argument presented by the White House, the CDC, and even the World Bank, has been that stopping direct or indirect travel from nations with an Ebola outbreak would be “impractical”, and that such travel bans would somehow “make matters worse”. They have yet to produce a logical explanation as to how this makes sense, but what if we did not need to institute a travel ban? The CDC, with it's massive budget, could easily establish quarantine measures in infected countries. Anyone wishing to travel outside of these nations would be welcome to do so, as long as they voluntarily participate in quarantine procedures for a set number of days. No quarantine, no plane ticket. Where has the CDC response been in Western Africa?

Why not use minor and measured travel restriction in Africa today, instead of using unprecedented martial law in America tomorrow? It makes no sense, unless, of course, the plan is to allow Ebola to spread…

Why has the White House nominated Ron Klain, a man who knows absolutely NOTHING about Ebola or medical emergency strategies, as the new “Ebola Czar”?

Why has all discussion on Ebola prevention revolved around government measures rather than community measures?  Why has all talk centered on what the government will do AFTER an outbreak occurs, rather than on what can be done to prevent an outbreak in the first place?

The reality is that the federal government does not have any treatments for Ebola that are outside of the knowledge and capabilities of the average medically trained citizen. Meaning, the government and the CDC are NOT needed for a community to handle an Ebola outbreak, if that community is given proper guidelines and strategies in advance. Treatment for Ebola, at least in first world nations, consists primarily of regimented transfusions. These transfusions are a mixture of isotonic saline, electrolytes, and plasma, designed to keep the body supported until it's immune system can build up a proper defense to the virus. Natural and homeopathic methods can also boost immune system functions making the body resistant to the virus before it is ever contracted. The most effective of all treatments appears to be the transfusion of blood from a recovering patient with anti-bodies into a newly sick patient. This is likely the reason for the quick recovery of infected doctors like Kent Brantly.

The CDC would never be able to coherently organize a large scale program of transfusion initiatives, even if it wanted to. Most hospitals around the country have no isolation wards able to handle even a minor Ebola outbreak. The hospitals that do have facilities are limited to less than a dozen beds. According to the medical workers I have spoken with, most hospitals require a minimum of around 50 health professionals to deal with a single Ebola patient.  In the event of an outbreak larger than a few people per state, the CDC and local hospitals are simply not equipped to react to the problem.  Blood transfusions from recovering donors would be few and far between, unless organized by local citizens working under their own directives.

Ironically, it was the Bush Administration's own report in 2006 on the possibility of bird flu pandemic that admitted the government is completely unequipped to handle an outbreak of moderate size. The report stated that “all sources of external aid may be compromised during a pandemic,” and that "local communities will have to address the medical and non-medical effects of the pandemic with available resources." Little has changed in the federal government's pandemic preparations since the report was written.

This leaves individual communities to either prepare for the worst, or die off while waiting for the government to save them. Self isolation and self treatment are the only practical options.

The greatest danger to American citizens is, in fact, not the Ebola virus, but government reactions to the Ebola virus. Already, several medical outfits around the world are suddenly interested in producing an Ebola vaccination when no one seemed very interested before. This might sound like good news, until you learn the terrible history of modern vaccinations.

Pharmaceutical company Merck was caught red handed faking vaccine efficacy data. Merck's Gardisil was found to contain DNA fragments of human papillomavirus.

Glaxosmithkline, a major vaccine producer, has been caught repeatedly attempting to bribe doctors and health professionals into promoting their products or outright lying about their effectiveness. Glaxo was caught producing rotavirus vaccinations tainted with a swine virus in 2010. Glaxo has been caught producing vaccines tainted with bacteria and endotoxins.

It is important to point out that Glaxo is also spearheading an Ebola vaccine initiative.

U.S. company Baxter produced a flu vaccination in Austria tainted with both avian flu and swine flu. The mixture just happened to be randomly tested on a group of ferrets by a lab in the Czech Republic. The test animals died. The exposure of this “mix up” was quietly swept under the rug by Baxter and the mainstream media, but reports indicate that if the vaccine had been used on the general population, a terrible pandemic would have erupted.

Beyond the fact that vaccinations have a tendency to cripple our natural immune system and infect patients with the very disease they are meant to prevent, none of these existing companies can be trusted to produce a vaccine that is safe even by traditional pharmaceutical standards (which are very low). If the CDC and the federal government trigger a medical martial law scenario, they will most likely include forced vaccination of the population to maintain “herd immunity”. The bottom line? The use of such vaccines will be a death sentence for many, a death more certain than the contraction of Ebola. In my opinion, Ebola vaccination should be avoided at all costs by the American populace.

I can think of no rationale for government involvement in the treatment of an Ebola outbreak. If it is not pure incompetence on their part that has exacerbated the threat, then even worse, it is a deliberate program of genocide. In either case, no military or CDC “strike teams” should be allowed free reign in our neighborhoods, towns, counties, or states. DHS and FEMA Community Emergency Response Teams (CERT) are also a no go, given FEMA's track record of dismal disaster response. They CANNOT be allowed to take control of our communities.

The only way for Americans to survive such an event is to cut out government entirely and establish their own medical strategies, as organizations like the Oath Keepers Community Preparedness Teams (CPT) are doing.

If someone wants to voluntarily go to the CDC or FEMA for assistance, then they should be allowed to take that risk. However, medical martial law over all of us in the name of the “greater good” should not be tolerated. The government has proven beyond a doubt that it is not qualified to handle a viral crisis scenario, let alone determine what the “greater good” actually is. I can't speak for the whole of the Liberty Movement, but as for myself, if a group of hazmat suited thugs decides to chase me down with a syringe, I am relatively certain none of them will live through the encounter.

Will I be accused of aiding the spread of Ebola because of my non-compliance? Of course. Do I care? Not so much. Each individual American will have to make their own decision on this matter in due course. Is it better to conform and risk annihilation at the hands of an ignorant and/or corrupt government, or, to fight back and be labeled a bio-terrorist? With the clear lack of tangible government preventions for outbreak in the U.S., you'll probably get your chance to find out soon enough.




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Web Ads Tell North Carolina Progressives That They Must Vote Libertarian Sean Haugh for Senate

The American Futures Fund, a generally pro-Republican group with
connections to the Koch brothers, have put out a series of short,
rather absurd, online ads pushing Libertarian Party North Carolina
Senate candidate Sean Haugh, in what is clearly an attempt to pull
a certain class of possible Democratic voters away from incumbent
Kay Hagan, and thus likely help the chances of Republican Thom
Tillis.

Here’s the “Get Haugh, Get High” spot. The “Oh Yeah” at the end
is the kicker, the painful jokey heart of a painful jokey ad:

And this one tells potential
Hagan voters to “Stop!” and consider that “Sean Haugh shares our
progressive values” re: pot, war, and, it asserts, the
environment:

More of the 16 second ads
can be
found here.

The Washington Post
noted the ads today
:

American Future
Fund,
 a tax-exempt organization based in West Des Moines,
has been frequently used as a
pass-through
 for political money on the right. In the
2012 campaign, it was a major player in a network of
politically active nonprofits supported by the billionaire
industrialists Charles and David Koch and other conservative
donors.

Nick Ryan, AFF’s founder, declined to say who was supporting the
campaign. “As a practice, we don’t comment on who does or does not
contribute to our organization,” he wrote in an email.

He added that the goal of the pro-Haugh campaign “is
straightforward — share information with voters about where Sean
Haugh stands on a variety of issues.”

Ryan said the campaign is now generating so much buzz that AFF
plans to expand its initial $225,000 buy.

“The response has been incredible online,” he wrote. “We are
going to re-double our efforts and expand the program next
week.”

The Post straightfacedly quoted a Tweet from Haugh
about the ads: “While I appreciate the support, I now have a
whole new reason to despise Koch brothers & their dark money.”
Haugh tweeted to me later that it was meant “more as absurdity,
like I’m a character in a Camus novel.” The ads were uncoordinated
with him, and he knew nothing about them, and recognizes their
intent to help Tillis secondhand.


NPR also
reported on the ad campaign today
:


Haugh
 is drawing about 6 percent in public
polls
, with some analysts believing his support is coming
equally from those who would otherwise vote for Hagan or
Tillis.

The $225,000 is nearly 30 times more than the $7,744 Haugh said
he has spent for himself.

To put that in perspective, the two main party candidates and
outside groups have already spent $85 million on the North Carolina
Senate race in advertising that directly tells voters to support or
oppose a candidate. Nonprofit political groups that are allowed to
keep their donors secret, including the Koch brothers-founded
Americans for Prosperity, have spent tens of millions of dollars
more in so-called “issue” ads attacking Hagan.

I interviewed
Haugh
earlier this month. Nick Gillespie wrote earlier this
month on how it’s a myth to assume that Libertarian candidates

only siphon potential votes from or harm Republicans
.

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Van Hoisington And The Fed’s Bubble: “Overtrading” And “Discredit” Always End In “Revulsion”

Excerpted from Hoisington Investment Management’s Quarterly Outlook,

via Van Hoisington and Lacy Hunt:

The U.S. economy continues to lose momentum despite the Federal Reserve’s use of conventional techniques and numerous experimental measures to spur growth. In the first half of the year, real GDP grew at only a 1.2% annual rate while real per capita GDP increased by a minimal 0.3% annual rate. Such increases are insufficient to raise the standard of living, which, as measured by real median household income, stands at the same level as it did seventeen years ago.

Asset Bubbles

Historically, in our judgment, the most important authority on the subject of asset bubbles was the late MIT professor Charles Kindleberger, author of 20 books including the one of the greatest books on capital markets Manias, Panics and Crashes (1978). He found that asset price bubbles depend on the growth of credit. Atif Mian (Princeton) and Amir Sufi (University of Chicago) provided confirmation for Kindleberger’s pioneering work and expanded on it in their 2014 book House of Debt. Chapter 8, entitled “Debt and Bubbles,” contains the heart of their insights. Mian and Sufi demonstrate that increasing the flow of credit is extremely counterproductive when the fundamental problem is too much debt, and excessive debt can fuel asset bubbles.

Based on our reading of these two books we would define an asset bubble as a rise in prices that is caused by excess central bank liquidity rather than economic fundamentals. As Kindleberger clearly stated, the process of excess liquidity fueling higher prices in the face of faltering fundamentals can run for a long time, a phase Kindleberger called “overtrading”. But eventually, this gives way to “discredit”, when the discerning few see the discrepancy between prices and fundamentals. Eventually, discredit yields to “revulsion”, when the crowd understands the imbalance, and markets correct.

Economists have commented on the high correlation between the S&P 500 and the Fed’s balance sheet since 2009. From 2009 to the latest available month, the monetary base (MB) surged from $1.7 trillion to $4.1 trillion. We ran the MB increase against the S&P 500 and found a very high correlation of 0.69. While correlation does not prove causality, the high correlation is certainly not inconsistent with the idea that the Fed liquidity played a major role in boosting stock prices. However, even as the MB has exploded since 2009 and stock prices have soared, the U.S. economy has experienced the worst economic expansion on record. In spite of a further large rise in the base this year, the GDP growth has subsided noticeably and corporate profits after taxes and adjusted for inventory gains/losses (IVA) and over/under depreciation (CCA) has declined 10% in the latest four quarters. Such discrepancy between the liquidity implied by the base and measures of economic performance could indicate the process of bubble formation. Kindleberger’s axiom that asset price bubbles depend on excess liquidity may yet face another test.

Still Bullish on Treasury Bonds

With the nominal growth trajectory extremely soft, U.S. Treasury bond yields are likely to continue working lower as similar circumstances have created declines in government bond yields in Europe and Japan. Viewing the yields overseas, it is evident that ample downside still exists for long U.S. Treasury bond yields, as the higher U.S. yields offer global investors an incentive to continue to move funds into the United States.

Another factor suggesting lower longterm U.S. Treasury yields is the strength of the U.S. dollar. In many industries, the price leader for certain goods in the U.S. is a foreign producer. A rising dollar leads to what economists sometimes call the “collapsing umbrella”. As the dollar lifts, the foreign producer cuts U.S. selling prices, forcing domestic producers to match the lower prices. This reinforces the prospect for lower inflation as nominal GDP wanes. This creates a favorable environment for falling U.S. Treasury bond yields.

Full letter below:

Van Hoisington Q3




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Everything You Need To Know About Blue Chip Earnings In One (Ugly) Table

With today’s exuberance around earnings (notably forgetting the reality of various bellwether fails), we thought it appropriate to get some context on just what the “market stalwarts'” results look like in context.

 

 

A third of the companies in the Dow have posted shrinking or flat revenue over the past 12 months, as WSJ notes,

“steady has become stagnant as companies once considered among the market’s most reliable post poor growth, quarter after woeful quarter.

Source: WSJ


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