U.S. Government Lied to Pretend that Accidental Russian Shootdown of Commercial Plane Was Intentional … Three Decades Ago

We noted yesterday that Ukraine, Russia, the U.S., Israel and China have all accidentally shot down commercial airplanes.

Ray McGovern – a 27-year CIA veteran, who chaired National Intelligence Estimates and personally delivered intelligence briefings to Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, their vice presidents, secretaries of state, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and many other senior government officials – provides vital details on an accidental shootdown by Russia – and America’s disinformation campaign to make it look intentional – 3 decades ago:

The U.S. press might pause to recall how it’s been manipulated by the U.S. government in the past, including three decades ago by the Reagan administration twisting the facts of the KAL-007 tragedy.

 

In that case, a Soviet fighter jet shot down a Korean Air Line plane on Sept. 1, 1983, after it strayed hundreds of miles off course and penetrated some of the Soviet Union’s most sensitive airspace over military facilities in Kamchatka and Sakhalin Island.

 

Over Sakhalin, KAL-007 was finally intercepted by a Soviet Sukhoi-15 fighter. The Soviet pilot tried to signal the plane to land, but the KAL pilots did not respond to the repeated warnings. Amid confusion about the plane’s identity — a U.S. spy plane had been in the vicinity hours earlier — Soviet ground control ordered the pilot to fire. He did, blasting the plane out of the sky and killing all 269 people on board.

 

The Soviets soon realized they had made a horrendous mistake. U.S. intelligence also knew from sensitive intercepts that the tragedy had resulted from a blunder, not from a willful act of murder ….

 

But a Soviet admission of a tragic blunder regarding KAL-007 wasn’t good enough for the Reagan administration, which saw the incident as a propaganda windfall. At the time, the felt imperative in Washington was to blacken the Soviet Union in the cause of Cold War propaganda and to escalate tensions with Moscow.

 

Falsifying the Case

 

To make the very blackest case against Moscow, the Reagan administration suppressed the exculpatory evidence from the U.S. electronic intercepts. The U.S. mantra became “the deliberate downing of a civilian passenger plane.” Newsweek ran a cover emblazoned with the headline “Murder in the Sky.”

 

The Reagan administration’s spin machine began cranking up,” wrote Alvin A. Snyder, then-director of the U.S. Information Agency’s television and film division, in his 1995 book, Warriors of Disinformation.

 

USIA Director Charles Z. Wick “ordered his top agency aides to form a special task force to devise ways of playing the story overseas. The objective, quite simply, was to heap as much abuse on the Soviet Union as possible,” Snyder recalled.

Snyder noted that “the American media swallowed the U.S. government line without reservation. Said the venerable Ted Koppel on the ABC News ‘Nightline’ program: ‘This has been one of those occasions when there is very little difference between what is churned out by the U.S. government propaganda organs and by the commercial broadcasting networks.’”

 

On Sept. 6, 1983, the Reagan administration went so far as to present a doctored transcript of the intercepts to the United Nations Security Council (a prelude to a similar false presentation two decades later by Secretary of State Colin Powell on Iraq’s alleged weapons of mass destruction).

 

“The tape was supposed to run 50 minutes,” Snyder said about recorded Soviet intercepts. “But the tape segment we [at USIA] had ran only eight minutes and 32 seconds. … ‘Do I detect the fine hand of [Richard Nixon's secretary] Rosemary Woods here?’ I asked sarcastically.’”

 

But Snyder had a job to do: producing the video that his superiors wanted. “The perception we wanted to convey was that the Soviet Union had cold-bloodedly carried out a barbaric act,” Snyder wrote.

 

Only a decade later, when Snyder saw the complete transcripts — including the portions that the Reagan administration had hidden — would he fully realize how many of the central elements of the U.S. presentation were false.

 

The Soviet fighter pilot apparently did believe he was pursuing a U.S. spy plane, according to the intercepts, and he was having trouble in the dark identifying the plane. At the instructions of Soviet ground controllers, the pilot had circled the KAL airliner and tilted his wings to force the aircraft down. The pilot said he fired warning shots, too. “This comment was also not on the tape we were provided,” Snyder wrote.

 

It was clear to Snyder that in the pursuit of its Cold War aims, the Reagan administration had presented false accusations to the United Nations, as well as to the people of the United States and the world. To these Republicans, the ends of smearing the Soviets had justified the means of falsifying the historical record.

 

In his book, Snyder acknowledged his role in the deception and drew an ironic lesson from the incident. The senior USIA official wrote, “The moral of the story is that all governments, including our own, lie when it suits their purposes. The key is to lie first.”




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1wJlSxc George Washington

The Government “Apologizes”

Excerpted from Sean Corrigan on Money, Macro, and Markets,

Dear Grandma and Grandad, thank you for making the valiant effort over these past decades to achieve a measure of self-reliance in your dotage and for allowing us jacks-in-office full use of your savings in the meanwhile as both a means to fulfill our political ambitions and as a way to act out our own economically-illiterate and usually illiberal prejudices at the expense of you and yours.”

 

Sadly, it transpires that we have not only wasted a goodly part of your savings, but we have greatly added to the host of irredeemable promises which we made to you, in the form of a mountain of even more pressing pledges issued to the Biggest of Big Fish in the financial markets. So that we do not entirely dissuade these latter sophisticates from again indulging our follies at the earliest opportunity, we shall now have to ask you to share – and thereby greatly to reduce – their pain.”

 

Be assured, however, that the loss for which you have my heartfelt sympathy will patriotically ensure that we can continue to live well beyond our means. In this way your sacrifice will see to it that the least possible harm will come to any of us in the political classes (a.k.a. the agents of your misfortune), to our army of placemen, patronage-seekers, and dole-gatherers, or to our plutocratic enablers for – as the IMF puts it – ‘…resources that would otherwise have been paid out to creditors will have been retained [to] reduce [our] overall financing needs.’ Nor will we have to suffer the indignity of modifying our existing approach overmuch by actually only spending money on the things for which you, in true democratic fashion, have openly voted the taxes since – here let me cite those marvellous chaps in Washington, once again – ‘resources could be efficiently employed to allow for a less constraining adjustment path.’, i.e., to allow one demanding as little fundamental ‘adjustment’ as possible.”

 

I feel confident you will join me in looking forward with some enthusiasm to the next, inevitable ‘reprofiling’, just as soon as we can arrange to overspend enough to make one necessary once again. Should I have already laid down the heavy burden of selfless public service by the time this comes about and gone instead to my just reward as a highly-paid ‘consultant’ to a global investment bank, I would urge you to give your full support to my successor, of whatever political stripe he or she may be. In such an event, there will, of course, be precious little different in the treatment you receive at the hands of any of the mainstream parties as currently constituted”

 

Yours Insincerely, The Minister of Finance.

Coming to an electronic doormat near you soon…




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1rqUiXn Tyler Durden

Reason Spuriously Accused by Conspiracy Theorist of Institutionally Supporting Apartheid in the 1970s and ‘80s

This is what supporting apartheid looks like, according to Mark Ames. |||Mark Ames, the
anti-libertarian
conspiracy
theorist
with a history of generating apology
notes
and
speedy take-downs
among those journalistic outlets still
reckless
enough
to publish him, ran a
piece
in Pando Daily yesterday alleging, among a
variety of dot-connecting claims involving other
libertarian-leaning people and institutions, that “Throughout its
first two decades, in the 1970s and 1980s, Reason supported
apartheid South Africa, and attacked anti-apartheid protesters and
sanctions right up to Nelson Mandela’s release, when they finally
dropped it.” The allegation, not surprisingly, is false.

How thin is Ames’s case? Among his handful of supposedly damning
citations, mined from a searchable archive that has
dozens of other pieces about South Africa, is this glowing
December 1980 profile
of Leon Luow, who was an
anti-apartheid activist. Here’s the opening of that
article, which Ames quotes as a gotcha:

It is possible that in the past decade no country has moved
further toward a libertarian society than South Africa has.
Yes—South Africa.

Provocative? Definitely. True? While I seriously doubt it, I
have no earthly idea. You can quickly move long distances from
miserable starting points; the government had recently
issued a series of economic and racial decontrols (about which see
more below), and author Patrick Cox did issue the qualifer “it is
possible.” More germane to the argument, was this evidence of
pro-apartheid sentiment? It was the opposite, actually. Here’s a
longer excerpt from Cox’s piece:

Because nothing says "supporting apartheid" quite like a guy who writes anti-apartheid books blurbed by Winnie Mandela! |||Many South Africans are aware
of Louw only as a crusader for civil and economic liberties for
blacks, who make up 70 percent of South Africa’s population.
Conditions for blacks have been improving dramatically but “not
fast enough,” says Louw. “I’m an abolitionist. What’s wrong
is wrong. Freedom is the first principle
. You cannot
justify restrictions by saying there will be uncomfortable effects
during the process of change.”

Black economist Walter Williams, who has visited South Africa
extensively, says of Louw and the South African move toward a
nonstatist society, “If you had to pick somebody on the continent
that played a significant role, surely it would be Leon and the
Free Market Foundation.” The Foundation, says Williams, “is forcing
people to view the problems of apartheid.
[…]

The most powerful labor union leader in South Africa has started
working with Louw and the Foundation and has come out against
racially segregated unions and closed shop laws (a barrier to black
employment). […]

Louw says his biggest enemies are not Marxists, who are
relatively easy to deal with once the issue of coercion is put on
the table. The real enemies are those who say, “I am a capitalist,
and in a capitalist society, you have to control morals. These are
the most poisonous enemies,” says Louw, because they say
they’re for free enterprise or freedom or libertarianism, but
they’re not
.

Emphases mine. Read that final paragraph again, slowly, then
look at this ludicrous Ames claim:

Majority rule and socialism were one and the same; for Reason,
apartheid was the only thing safeguarding “liberty.” The logic was
insane; but it was accepted as a matter of faith in the pages of
Reason.

Because nothing says supporting apartheid like naming Nelson Mandela one of your 35 Heroes of Freedom! |||If defending apartheid was a
“matter of faith” in Reason during the ’70s and ’80s, you
would expect editors and staffers and contributors to routinely
make that case when the subject of apartheid came up. Instead, from
the editor in chief to the writer of Brickbats to book reviewers to
the anti-apartheid activists themselves, the South African policy
of forcible racial discrimination was described as “bigoted,”
“repressive,” “thoroughly racist,” an “absurd anachronism,” “an
anathema,” “bad for business,” and worse. Essayists wrote treatises
on “how to dismantle apartheid”; feature writers celebrated
developments they hoped “ultimately destroys…apartheid,” Editor
Robert Poole asked Zulu leader Gatsha Buthelezi questions like
“What’s the best thing the United States government could do to
help end apartheid?”, and on and on.

Fuller excerpts and links are provided after the jump. I invite
readers of all persuasions to mine the archive and assess for
themselves.

The meat of Ames’s case comes from three pieces by a single
author, the South African Marc Swanepoel, in
1973
,
1976
, and
1977
(Swanepoel also wrote a relevant article in 1975).
That two decades of an institution’s journalism–let alone the
content and motivation behind a
political conference in 2014
, which is the proximate target of
Ames’s fire–can be characterized, let alone discredited, by the
work of a single foreign correspondent speaks volumes about the
thin evidentiary reed we’re on here. Still, there is plenty in
those four pieces that stings our modern eyes.

For instance, this bit near the close of Swanepoel’s 1973
essay: 

Throughout this article I have remained uncritical of the
apartheid situation and this may leave me open to some severe
criticism from other libertarians. I consider myself to be in the
position of someone who has to choose between a more severe or a
less severe dictatorship. The dictatorship in this instance is
unlimited majority rule. The less severe dictator is a group of 4
million mostly educated people. The more severe dictator is a group
of 16 million, mostly ignorant people. The fact that the average
person of the one group is distinguishable the average person of
the other group is an accident of nature. The object of criticism
should be the dictatorship, and not the colour of the dictator.
Abolish the source of all the evil: omnipotent government, whether
in black or in white hands! 

I (and I think history) disagree with Swanepoel’s “less severe
dictator” prediction, and I wince at the description of “mostly
ignorant people.” But let’s remember the central Ames accusation
here–that “Reason supported apartheid South Africa,” and that the
apartheid=safeguarding liberty formulation “was accepted
as a matter of faith.” The lone relevant witness Ames calls to this
prosecution considered the apartheid regime a “dictatorship,” and
called for the abolition of “omnipotent government, whether in
black or in white hands.” With “supporters” like these, no wonder
the system was dead within two decades. And note, too, that
Swanepoel (quite unlike Ames) knew enough about his audience to
anticipate “severe criticism from other libertarians,” which he
indeed received in the form of dissenting letters to the
editor.

More on South Africa from the Reason archive after the
jump.

Here are links to and excerpts from 20 Reason pieces
about South Africa from the 1970s and ’80s. If there’s a
throughline in them, it’s that apartheid was repressive and morally
unjustifiable, that economic sanctions against the country were
counter-productive, that the best policies going forward were broad
decentralization and economic liberalization, that the situation
was more complicated on the ground than portrayed in the American
media, that Nelson Mandela and other political prisoners should be
freed, that conditions in neighboring countries were frequently
worse (and always less-publicized), and that blacks deserved full
equality under the law. No fair reading of these articles can lead
to the conclusion that Reason institutionally supported
apartheid.

1) The first long Reason article about apartheid was
published in August 1971, by a South African-born U.S. resident
named Terence Honikman. It was titled “Boycott
South Africa?
“; it denounced the “absurdity” and “bigoted
arguments for” apartheid, and it ended like this:

Boycotts set people against each other. Free trade and
communication bring  people together for mutual benefit. Since
there is no one to benefit mutually  with the South African
government in the maintenance of apartheid, contacts with that body
for trading will accomplish what boycotts never have–the
demonstration of apartheid’s futility and stupidity.

(Interestingly, Honikman later
repudiated
this paragraph as being too emotional in a follow-up
letter to the editor, which suggests that the magazine’s underlying
“matter of faith” regarding apartheid was rather negative.)

2) Brickbats, a collection of items usually involving
governments behaving badly, has been a beloved Reason
staple from way back. In the
April 1978 issue
, Brickbatter Bill Birmingham included this
dart:

In an interview with New York Times correspondent John
Burns South African Minister of Justice James T. “Jimmy” Kruger
claimed: “I’m very, very sinerely for press freedom, and so is my
Prime Minister. We are adherents of press freedom in its full
sense.” This appeared October 23, 1977, four days after Pretoria
shut down The World, South Africa’s largest black
newspaper. “From outside South Africa such formulations read
suspiciously like Orwellian doublespeak. Yet to those familiar with
this confused and troubled land, there is little doubt that the
Afrikaaners of the Nationalist Party who hold a monopoly of
political power believe what they say. The problem is that their
concept of freedom, whether in press matters or anything else, is
subordinate to their reverence for the State.” Their
concept of freedom is subordinate to their reverence for the
State.
Exactly!

3) That same issue of the magazine also had a four-paragraph
item titled “Apartheid:
Bad for Business
,” that ended thusly:

Gradually, the inexorable force of (dare we say it?)
self-interest is chipping away at the absurd anachronism of
apartheid.

4) Economist Walter Williams in
August 1978
 was definitely not enthusiastic about the
“white racist unions in South Africa”:

The notion that it is sometimes necessary for some individuals
to lower their price in order for some kinds of transactions to
occur is offensive to the sensibilities of many people. These
people support the minimum wage law as a matter of moral
conviction, out of concern for equity in thedistribution of wealth.
These people should know, however, that white racist unions in
South Africa have also been supporters of minimum wage laws and
equal-pay-for-equal-work laws for blacks. In South Africa, black
skilled workers in the building trades have been willing to accept
wages less than 25 percent of those wages paid to white skilled
workers. Such a differential made racial discrimination in hiring a
costly proposition. That is, firms who chose to hire whites instead
of blacks paid dearly-$1.91 per hour versus 39 cents per hour.
White racist unionists well recognize that equal-pay-for-equal-work
laws would lower the cost of racial discrimination and thus improve
their competitive position in the labor market.

5) An
August 1979 item
, co-written by Editor Robert Poole, lauds a
series of recent, mostly little-known reforms in South Africa, some
of which surely informed the December 1980 enthusiasm about the
country moving in a more libertarian direction. Among the positive
developments that Poole cited:

Two recent commissions have made strong recommendations for
repeal of racially restrictive laws. The 14-member Wiehahn
Commission urged that laws reserving certain job categories for
whites be abolished, that laws requiring workplace segregation be
repealed, that trade unions be open to all races, that the closed
shop be outlawed, and that black unions be given legal standing
(the same as white unions). The government’s labor minister
accepted the recommendations “in principle” and scheduled early
parliamentary action. A week later the Riekert report proposed a
number of changes aimed at reducing apartheid restrictions,
including an easing of strict controls on entry of nonwhites into
urban areas (the hated “pass laws”), ending the ban against wives
without passes living with husbands who have passes in cities, and
allowing more businesses in black urban residential areas. The
report was declared “acceptable to the government” by its economic
affairs minister.

6) In a
June 1981 review
of James Michener’s South Africa-based
The
Covenant
, Frances Louw identifies the original (white) sin
of her country:

Michener does not mention here that most of the Voortrekker
Republics had limited-government constitutions. What he does point
out correctly is that they sadly never recognized that other people
too might desire the freedom they pursued so ardently. Their bible
told them that they were to be the masters of the promised land,
and they were determined to impose this belief on the colored
(people of mixed blood), Hottentot, and black peoples who
surrounded them. Thus the seeds were sown for the conflicts of
today.

7) In an
August 1981 editorial
bemoaning the “Freedom to Suppress,”
Poole noted this troubling development:

In January, the government of South Africa “banned” two leading
black journalists and permanently shut down two black-owned
newspapers.

8) In
December 1984
Robert Blumen celebrated the writing of South
African exile Tom Sharpe, author of (among other things) “an acidic
criticism of the excesses of racist South African police,” and a
satire about “government surveillance in the name of
anticommunism.”

9) John Blundell, in a long April 1985
feature
on the semi-autonomous South African region of Ciskei,
enthused that such then-controversial homelands “may just turn out
to be a Trojan horse that ultimately destroys…apartheid.”

10) In a
May 1985 editorial
, Poole suggested that “peaceful political
change is more likely to come as a result of an increasingly
prosperous black population asserting its rights than through an
attempt by well-intentioned American politicians to force South
Africa into economic isolation.”

11) In a
January 1986 editorial
arguing against economic sanctions,
Poole advocated a different method for changing the policies of the
“repressive” South African government: 

Dare we imagine the impact of thousands of American investors
and millions of American tourists in Cuba and South Africa,
bringing: American political and cultural values with them? It is
widely acknowledged that US firms have been a major force against
economic and social discrimination in South Africa. How much more
could be accomplished by large-scale interaction with ordinary
Americans? Wherever we go, we bring our culture along with us–our
abiding individualism (disregarding race and class), the work
ethic, diversity and choice, and tolerance of others’ views and
lifestyles. American music, movies, TV shows, and consumer products
are powerful implicit expressions of these values…which add up to
one thing–freedom.

12) In a
March 1986 Q&A
with South African Zulu leader Gatsha
Buthelezi, Poole asks questions like “What’s the best thing the
United States government could do to help end apartheid?”, and “Is
it possible for blacks and Afrikaners eventually to live together
peaceably in South Africa, or is the legacy of apartheid too
great?”

13) In a
January 1987 essay
, South African activist Frances Kendall
(formerly Louw) proposes a roadmap for “how to dismantle apartheid
without pitting race against race, tearing apart the nation, and
destroying the economy.” Among Kendall’s recommendations are
freeing Nelson Mandela, drafting a new constitution that outlaws
discrimination, and including a “bill of rights protecting such
basic rights as freedom of movement, speech, association, religion,
and–unlike most countries’ constituions–property ownership.”

14) In
July 1987
, Virginia Postrel celebrated the success of the
Frances Kendall/Leon Louw book
South Africa: The Solution
, from which that January 1987
essay was derived:

The Solution has received wide support from black
leaders and from business. Winnie Mandela, wife of imprisoned
African National Congress leader Nelson Mandela, has not only
endorsed the book but also written a forward to the Swedish
edition. KwaZulu chief minister Gatsha Buthelezi, reports
Time, has said, “Amid a sea of anger and tension, The
Solution
may prove to be a rational, workable answer to South
Africa’s unique problems.” And Sam Motsuenyane, head of the
country’s leading black business association, sits on the board of
trustees of Groundswell, a foundation established by Kendall and
Louw to promote their ideas.

15) In an
August 1987 investment piece
, Mark Tier was withering in his
criticism of apartheid:

Unfortunately, the South African state is very well entrenched,
very powerful within the country, and very effectively pursuing a
policy of divide and rule amongst the white and nonwhite
communities. […]

It’s important to consider the moral questions before making any
investment there. The system of apartheid is an anathema, and I
have no desire to support it in any way, shape, or form. […]

[T]here is one form of investment…that combines the desire to
make a profit with the desire to help effect peaceful, libertarian
change in South Africa. Then you can have the best of both worlds:
make money by promoting freedom.

16) In July 1988, Walter Williams
interviewed
Louw and Kendall about their book
After Apartheid
. Among his questions:

Americans are by and large decent people, and they find that
apartheid and legalized discrimination is offensive. What can
Americans do to help in the situation?

17) In
March 1989
, Robert Poole traveled to South Africa for an
eyewitness report. Among his observations:

The big question is how and when [black South Africans] will
achieve full equality before the law. […]

[T]he South African government goes out of its way to obstruct
the free flow of information. Under a three-year-old state of
emergency, it has banned TV coverage of disorders in the townships,
for example. And when I truthfully answered a question on my visa
application indicating that I had had articles published, I was
required to provide samples and to submit a notarized statement
that I was going to South Africa only as a tourist.

The government repeatedly squelches legitimate efforts to build
the kinds of social and political structures necessary for
democracy. Last fall, the fledgling (mostly white) End Conscription
Campaign was banned. And the government has leveled charges of high
treason against leaders of the Alexandra Action Committee, a black
self-help organization in one of Johannesburg’s townships.
[…]

I left South Africa with a mixture of hope and anger. Hope that
the dramatic and rapid changes of the past few years will continue,
bringing urban blacks into the mainstream of economic life, giving
them a stake in the system as a precondition of new political
arrangements.

18) In June
1989
, Walter Williams reviewed the
posthumous memoir
of anti-apartheid activist Alan Paton.
Excerpt:

In Journey Continued, Paton grapples with the question
of how Afrikaners, who are devout Christians, could promote the
thoroughly racist policies of apartheid. […]

His troubled country…is really only a special case of a much
larger phenomenon in which powerful elites determine social goals.
If individual liberty, property rights, and the rule of law
interfere with the achievement of these social goals, then
individual liberty, property rights, and the rule of law are
ruthlessly suppressed.

19) In July 1989, Reason ran a
cover story
by Andrew Clark titled “Quiet Revolution: South
Africa’s Blacks are Realizing Their Economic Power. Can Apartheid
Survive?” Needless to say to anyone except Mark Ames, Clark was not
rooting for apartheid’s survival. Excerpt:

South Africans from across the country’s numerous divides are
struggling to build an economy unhindered by the state’s
all-pervasive restrictions. […]

[R]ecent cracks in the edifice of apartheid have unleased an
entrepreneurial energy that is forcing the 40-year-old National
Party government to successively abandon its racial policies and
rethink its options regarding the future. It is against this
background that “black economic empowerment,” a phrase on the tips
of so man South African tongues these days, can be seen for what it
is: a truly revolutionary force that could finally push South
Africa into the developed and civilized world, eroding the laws
that deprive its people, black and white, of prosperity and
freedom.

20) And in an August 1989
editorial
, Poole again made the case against economic sanctions
as the tool for dismantling apartheid (along with its totalitarian
counterparts in the communist world):

Peaceful change is far more likely to come to South Africa by
the continued progress of black economic empowerment, as reported
in these pages last month. (See “Quiet Revolution,” July.) Millions
of upwardly mobile black entrepreneurs, skilled workers, and
managers–who are also a huge consumer market–are the key to
bringing about legal and political equality. […]

Instead of sanctions and disinvestment, we should encourage
American investment, travel, and tourism in repressive societies.
With our fax machines and PCs and MTV, we will liberate South
Africa–and eventually, China and Russia too. 

These 20 pieces are not the only non-Marc Swanepoel references
to South Africa in the 1970s-’80s Reason; the biggest
category I left out were the Reaganite proxy-war correspondetry of
Jack Wheeler, which had much less to do with South Africa’s
domestic policies, and more with its role in the Cold War (which,
as I argued in my
Nelson Mandela obituary
 this year, had the effect of
warping America’s policy and values toward apartheid). Most of the
rest were passing comments about either investment climate or
American political rhetoric. As stated before, please mine the archive for
yourselves.

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/1n3WxMR
via IFTTT

Where The Happiest Americans Are (And Are Not)

On an income-adjusted basis, New Yorkers are the most miserable Americans while citizens of Lafayette, LA are the happiest. As MarketWatch reports, based on a Harvard study which ‘adjusts’ for age, sex, race, income and other factors, the following map indicates where the happiest Americans are (blue/green) and are not (red).

 

 

The happiest five cities are all in Louisiana, with Lafayette taking the crown (Louisiana is also the happiest state). The unhappiest cities, after New York City, are St. Joseph, Miss.; South Bend, Ind.; Erie, Penn.; and the Evansville, Ind.-Henderson, Ky. area.




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1posY7F Tyler Durden

Nick Gillespie: After Decades of Failure, Let’s Try a Libertarian Foreign Policy

As Dick Cheney, Hillary
Clinton, John McCain, and others who oversaw America’s disastrous
foreign policy in the 21st century attack anyone who suggests
things haven’t gone well, Nick Gillespie asks: “What would be a
better foreign policy than what we’ve seen over the past 14 or so
years?”

It’s tempting to say, Anything, anything
at all
. Certainly, at least this much makes immediate
sense: The United States should in fact withdraw militarily for
good from Iraq and Afghanistan, especially if those countries’
governments implore us to do so. And there are allies in both
regions that we should continue to support not just morally, but
materially and militarily.

All large-scale and long-term military engagements should
actually be put to a specific congressional vote as dictated both
by the Constitution and by common sense. The use of military force
should be governed not by a set of infinitely expandable terms such
as ensuring human rights and expanding democracy, but far narrower
and less grandiose ideals of national defense.

View this article.

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/1lfTVaN
via IFTTT

Full Passenger And Cargo Manifest Of Flight MH 17

It took Malaysian Airlines two months of media prodding before it finally released the full cargo manifest of the disappeared light MH 370. Following the tragedy of flight MH 17 it took just over a day to get the same information. The full manifest is shown below and aside from several live animals including two dogs, five pigeons and five otherwise unidentified live birds and a 9.4kg “shipment of pot”, there is little that draws attention. The full tragic list of 283 tragic passengers who passed away was also just released by Malaysian Airlines.

The full passenger manifest:

And the complete cargo haul:




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1mr9lZr Tyler Durden

Death Toll Hits 330 As Israel Uncovers 13 Tunnels, Faces “Suicide Donkeys”

With large anti-Israel protests in London, Paris, Brussels, and Madrid, the social media PR blitzkrieg continues between the IDF and Hamas. Palestinian officials claim over 100 civilian deaths in the last 48 hours (and over 330 since Operation Protective Edge began). Israel continues to reference the ongoing bombardment of rockets from Gaza (militants in Gaza have launched 1,663 rockets…The IDF has struck “2,300 terror targets” in Gaza). As LA Times reports, fighting continued above and below ground Saturday as Israeli soldiers have located dozens of shafts dug under homes and green houses leading to 13 tunnels. CNN reports local witnesses saying very 30 seconds to a minute a shell comes down in or around Beit Lahya. Perhaps most fascinating is The IDF claims that their forces have been attacked by explosive-laden “suicide donkeys.”

 

Anti-Israel protests are spreading…

As the violence and death count rises…

Israel’s military continued to pound the Gaza Strip with heavy shelling on Saturday, calling on more civilians to leave their homes on the second day of its expanding ground operation against rocket launchers and cross-border tunnels while top diplomats were set to converge on the region to pursue a cease-fire.

 

Aircraft and artillery fire struck rocket-launchers, cars and houses throughout the coastal enclave. One strike killed five family members in their Beit Hanoun home, pushing the death toll above 330, according to Palestinian officials.

 

Fighting between Israeli troops and Hamas and other militants continued above and below ground Saturday. Overnight, around 20 militants were killed after engaging forces with gunfire and grenades as Israeli soldiers continued to comb Gaza for tunnels that Israel views as a strategic threat.

 

The Israeli military has reportedly located dozens of shafts dug under homes and green houses leading to 13 tunnels and intends to blow them up in coming days. At least three Israeli soldiers were injured Thursday in a battle with heavily armed militants who used one such tunnel to enter Israel from the central Gaza Strip with plans to attack a nearby community, a military official said.

The strikes so far… (via CNN)

Since Operation Protective Edge began, militants in Gaza have launched 1,663 rockets, the IDF said in a statement Saturday. Israeli rocket defense system Iron Dome has intercepted 346 of them.

 

The IDF has struck “2,300 terror targets” in Gaza, the statement said. In its recently launched ground operations, the IDF targeted 95 rocket launching sites and 13 tunnels.

CNN offers some local perspective

In his Gaza home, Ramez al-Madhoun listens Saturday to the thunder of Israeli tank shells battering the neighborhood — some a little less than a mile away, some closer.

 

A few miles south of him, Gazan militants’ rockets stream into the sky — about seven in 15 minutes — toward Israel.

 

The tanks are gunning for tunnels leading into Israel and the Gazan attack squads that use them.

 

Al-Madhoun says he feels safer during Israeli airstrikes.

 

“If it was an airstrike, it would be more of a precision strike, but the tanks shells are more dangerous, they are destroying more than the airstrikes,” he says.

 

Every 30 seconds to a minute a shell comes down in or around Beit Lahya. The local imam has told residents to stay home and pray, because the shelling has made it to dangerous to go outside, al-Madhoun says.

Hamas is using alternate tactics

According to the IDF, ground forces operating in Gaza Strip were attacked by an explosives-laden donkey

 

The latest such incident happened on Friday in the Rafah area, the IDF reported Saturday. 

 

A donkey suspiciously began to approach forces. The Forces Engaged the Donkey and it Exploded at A Safe Distance, whereas no Injuries Were Sustained by the IDF as A result, ” the Israeli Report Said.

 

“Sending an animal to ITS Death to serve Terrorist Purposes May SEEM Shocking, but Certainly Last night was not the first time Palestinian Terrorists Adopted this despicable Tactic,” the IDF Said. 

 


Israel is urging civilians to evacuate…

 

*  *  *

Which leaves just one question… Do the donkeys go to heaven with 72 virgins?




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1mr9lbR Tyler Durden

Greg Beato on Smart Apps vs. Obamacare

Health care costs in the U.S.
have been rising so steadily for so long that containment barely
seems possible. Even optimists don’t dream of cutting the price
tag. As its official name-the Patient Protection and Affordable
Care Act-suggests, Obamacare aims for affordability, not
radical reduction. But at a time when we’re all walking around with
more computing power in our pockets than NASA used to send Apollo
11 to the moon, perhaps we should be setting our expectations
higher. Is it really so hard to imagine, in 10 years or so, the
advent of advertising-sponsored health care? Or at the very least,
bulk-purchased cardiology readings for a Netflix-like $8.99 monthly
subscription? The device that could potentially enable such
scenarios, writes Greg Beato in the August/September issue
of Reason, already exists

View this article.

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/1nnWehC
via IFTTT

Fade the Break?

There is a generally shared view that growth differentials will lead to wider interest rate differentials that will spur the long awaited dollar rally.   The markets are anticipatory in nature, and many observers suspect that dollar rally has begun.  

 

The Dollar Index rose to a one-month high before the weekend, extending the push through the 200-day moving average that had occurred earlier in the week.  At midweek, the 50-day average moved above the 200-day average in what some technicians refer to as the golden cross.

 

Despite the disappointing housing starts, other economic data suggests the US economy not only expanded by a little more than 3% in Q2, but the positive momentum has carried over into the start of Q3.  The Bloomberg consensus expects the world’s largest economy to expand at a 3.1% annualized clip in both Q3 and Q4.  

 

However, the US 10-year yield has no traction.  It dipped below 2.44% last week, as stock market fall, housing st.  arts crumbled (only in the south, but enough to drag the national aggregate dramatically lower) and geopolitical tensions rose.  The yield is off seven bp in the past week and 14 bp in the past month.  The 2.48% close was the lowest weekly close since the end of May.  

 

Some of the factors that drove US yields down also drove the yen higher, like the geopolitics and the sharp sell-off in stocks on July 17.  The dollar successfully tested the JPY101 level for the second time in two weeks.   There is a band of resistance in the JPY101.50-65 area.  It needs to be overcome to take the pressure off a re-test.  

 

Before the weekend, the euro broke below the $1.35 level for the first time since February.  It is approaching a trend line on the weekly bar charts that comes in near $1.3470.  Although technical indicators, like the MACDs, are trending lower, and the 5-day average is below the 20-day, we are not convinced this is the long anticipated breakout.     

 

We suspect the euros’s break of $1.35 was a bit of a fluke, perhaps driven by the cross against the yen.  The break took many by surprise, but strong bargain hunting quickly emerged and the euro finished  net-net little changed from the previous session, which itself was little changed from its previous session.  Essentially the euro has been unchanged on a closing basis since July 16. 

 

A combination of an upside surprise on US inflation and a downside surprise of the euro area flash PMI readings could give the market the incentive to push the euro through the weekly trend, in which case the next target is $1.34.  Nevertheless, we suspect the $1.35-$1.37 trading range will remain intact, even if it frays a bit.  

 

Sterling technical tone has deteriorated, and the 5- and 20-day moving averages are set to cross over the next couple of sessions.  Sterling spiked to new highs in response to the CPI’s upside surprise.  However, that high was not confirmed by the technical indicators.  This has created a bearish divergence. 

 

We do not think that sterling has peaked yet, but the technicals and market positioning suggests caution is warranted.  New buying is likely to emerging on a further pullback into the $1.6950-$1.7000 area. 

 

Within a narrow consolidative range, the Australian dollar staged an outside up day as the government seemed more relaxed about the currency’s strength than the central bank.  The technical tone is favorable.  The RSI has turned up, and the MACDs are about to.  The next target is near $0.9460. 

 

The technical tone of the Canadian dollar is not as favorable.  The Aussie looks set to outperform the Loonie.  It is flirting with CAD1.01, which it tested three times last week.  A break of this would signal a move toward CAD1.0200-50. 

 

The US dollar spiked to CAD1.08 on the central bank’s statement indicating that although the CPI has not peaked, the gains are likely to prove temporary and full capacity utilization was pushed out again.   As if on cue, before the weekend the June CPI figures were stronger than expected and the greenback fell to almost CAD1.07.

 

We suspect that the quick move to CAD1.08 was a shakeout of weak late longs.   As of July 15, the speculators in the futures market had a gross long Canadian dollar position that was the largest in nearly 18 months.  It has doubled in the past month. A consolidation phase would not be surprising in the near-term. 

 

The US dollar closed just below MXN12.95 before the weekend.  It is the lowest weekly close in six weeks.  The net long position in the futures market has been essentially unchanged for the past four-reporting periods.  However, what appears to be the driving force is the demand for peso-denominated government debt.  Foreign holding of official peso debt is at a record. They are anticipating the opening up of Mexico’s energy market, with draft rules approved by Senate committees last week. 

 

The next level of support is seen near MXN12.90.  We still look for a retest on the MXN12.80 area, even though the previous head and shoulders pattern did not unfold as hoped.    

 

 

Lastly, given the anticipated growth and price pressures, we continue to think that US 10-year yields below 2.5% are not sustainable.  A move back above the 2.56%-2.57% area will help stabilize the tone.  

 

 

Observations from the speculative positioning in the futures market:

 

1. Position adjustments were minor in the latest Commitment of Traders report for the week ending July 15.  Of the 14 gross currency futures positions, 11 were adjusted by less than 5k contracts. The only significant position adjustment  (we define as more than 10k contract change) was the 11.5k contracts added to the gross short position.  It now stands at 112.4k contracts, which is by far the largest short position among the currency futures.  The gross short yen position of 71.3k is is the second largest.  

 

2.  Speculators continued to accumulate Canadian and Australian dollars.  The gross long Canadian dollar position edged 2.1k contracts higher to 60.4k.  This is twice as much as a month ago.  The gross long Australian dollar position rose 4.2k contracts and has grown 7-fold since mid-March to 70.9k contracts.  

 

3.  Although gross sterling longs slipped fractionally, at 86k contracts  it is still larger than the gross long euro, Swiss franc and yen futures positions combined.  

 

4.  There was a sharp reduction in the net short 10-year Treasury futures.  This was not a function of short covering.  In fact, the gross shorts edged higher by 5.7k contracts to 479.2k.  The reason the net short position fell to 53.6k contracts from 96.8k is because new longs came into the market. The gross long Treasury position increased by more than 10% to 425.6k contracts 




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1lfteTK Marc To Market

Fade the Break?

There is a generally shared view that growth differentials will lead to wider interest rate differentials that will spur the long awaited dollar rally.   The markets are anticipatory in nature, and many observers suspect that dollar rally has begun.  

 

The Dollar Index rose to a one-month high before the weekend, extending the push through the 200-day moving average that had occurred earlier in the week.  At midweek, the 50-day average moved above the 200-day average in what some technicians refer to as the golden cross.

 

Despite the disappointing housing starts, other economic data suggests the US economy not only expanded by a little more than 3% in Q2, but the positive momentum has carried over into the start of Q3.  The Bloomberg consensus expects the world’s largest economy to expand at a 3.1% annualized clip in both Q3 and Q4.  

 

However, the US 10-year yield has no traction.  It dipped below 2.44% last week, as stock market fall, housing st.  arts crumbled (only in the south, but enough to drag the national aggregate dramatically lower) and geopolitical tensions rose.  The yield is off seven bp in the past week and 14 bp in the past month.  The 2.48% close was the lowest weekly close since the end of May.  

 

Some of the factors that drove US yields down also drove the yen higher, like the geopolitics and the sharp sell-off in stocks on July 17.  The dollar successfully tested the JPY101 level for the second time in two weeks.   There is a band of resistance in the JPY101.50-65 area.  It needs to be overcome to take the pressure off a re-test.  

 

Before the weekend, the euro broke below the $1.35 level for the first time since February.  It is approaching a trend line on the weekly bar charts that comes in near $1.3470.  Although technical indicators, like the MACDs, are trending lower, and the 5-day average is below the 20-day, we are not convinced this is the long anticipated breakout.     

 

We suspect the euros’s break of $1.35 was a bit of a fluke, perhaps driven by the cross against the yen.  The break took many by surprise, but strong bargain hunting quickly emerged and the euro finished  net-net little changed from the previous session, which itself was little changed from its previous session.  Essentially the euro has been unchanged on a closing basis since July 16. 

 

A combination of an upside surprise on US inflation and a downside surprise of the euro area flash PMI readings could give the market the incentive to push the euro through the weekly trend, in which case the next target is $1.34.  Nevertheless, we suspect the $1.35-$1.37 trading range will remain intact, even if it frays a bit.  

 

Sterling technical tone has deteriorated, and the 5- and 20-day moving averages are set to cross over the next couple of sessions.  Sterling spiked to new highs in response to the CPI’s upside surprise.  However, that high was not confirmed by the technical indicators.  This has created a bearish divergence. 

 

We do not think that sterling has peaked yet, but the technicals and market positioning suggests caution is warranted.  New buying is likely to emerging on a further pullback into the $1.6950-$1.7000 area. 

 

Within a narrow consolidative range, the Australian dollar staged an outside up day as the government seemed more relaxed about the currency’s strength than the central bank.  The technical tone is favorable.  The RSI has turned up, and the MACDs are about to.  The next target is near $0.9460. 

 

The technical tone of the Canadian dollar is not as favorable.  The Aussie looks set to outperform the Loonie.  It is flirting with CAD1.01, which it tested three times last week.  A break of this would signal a move toward CAD1.0200-50. 

 

The US dollar spiked to CAD1.08 on the central bank’s statement indicating that although the CPI has not peaked, the gains are likely to prove temporary and full capacity utilization was pushed out again.   As if on cue, before the weekend the June CPI figures were stronger than expected and the greenback fell to almost CAD1.07.

 

We suspect that the quick move to CAD1.08 was a shakeout of weak late longs.   As of July 15, the speculators in the futures market had a gross long Canadian dollar position that was the largest in nearly 18 months.  It has doubled in the past month. A consolidation phase would not be surprising in the near-term. 

 

The US dollar closed just below MXN12.95 before the weekend.  It is the lowest weekly close in six weeks.  The net long position in the futures market has been essentially unchanged for the past four-reporting periods.  However, what appears to be the driving force is the demand for peso-denominated government debt.  Foreign holding of official peso debt is at a record. They are anticipating the opening up of Mexico’s energy market, with draft rules approved by Senate committees last week. 

 

The next level of support is seen near MXN12.90.  We still look for a retest on the MXN12.80 area, even though the previous head and shoulders pattern did not unfold as hoped.    

 

 

Lastly, given the anticipated growth and price pressures, we continue to think that US 10-year yields below 2.5% are not sustainable.  A move back above the 2.56%-2.57% area will help stabilize the tone.  

 

 

Observations from the speculative positioning in the futures market:

 

1. Position adjustments were minor in the latest Commitment of Traders report for the week ending July 15.  Of the 14 gross currency futures positions, 11 were adjusted by less than 5k contracts. The only significant position adjustment  (we define as more than 10k contract change) was the 11.5k contracts added to the gross short position.  It now stands at 112.4k contracts, which is by far the largest short position among the currency futures.  The gross short yen position of 71.3k is is the second largest.  

 

2.  Speculators continued to accumulate Canadian and Australian dollars.  The gross long Canadian dollar position edged 2.1k contracts higher to 60.4k.  This is twice as much as a month ago.  The gross long Australian dollar position rose 4.2k contracts and has grown 7-fold since mid-March to 70.9k contracts.  

 

3.  Although gross sterling longs slipped fractionally, at 86k contracts  it is still larger than the gross long euro, Swiss franc and yen futures positions combined.  

 

4.  There was a sharp reduction in the net short 10-year Treasury futures.  This was not a function of short covering.  In fact, the gross shorts edged higher by 5.7k contracts to 479.2k.  The reason the net short position fell to 53.6k contracts from 96.8k is because new longs came into the market. The gross long Treasury position increased by more than 10% to 425.6k contracts 




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1lftaTW Marc To Market