China's Bold Reforms Are Bad News For Markets

China has unveiled its most sweeping reform agenda in more than 30 years, after a meeting of key Communist Party leaders in Beijing last week. The agenda aims to transition China to a more free-market consumer economy with fewer social controls. On the economic front, the plans include reducing the power of giant state-owned companies, removing a swathe of price controls, phasing out caps on interest rates and moving towards yuan convertibility. More broadly, the plans also outline loosening the one-child policy, abolishing the controversial “re-education” labor camps and introducing steps toward an independent judiciary.

Surprises include the commitment to reducing the power of state-owned enterprises (SOEs), as this wasn’t flagged prior to the meeting. The breadth of price controls to be removed – including water, oil, gas and power – is also a surprise. Though its made headlines, relaxation of the one-child policy was well flagged and actually doesn’t go as far as some would have liked. One of the most unexpected reforms is the abolition of labor camps. This was a key gripe of foreign governments as it allowed the detention of people without trial.

So what’s missing then? Well, the agenda doesn’t specifically address bank non-performing loan (NPL) issues. Though it’s pledged to introduce a property tax to curb the housing bubble, taxes have been introduced before with minimal impact. It also doesn’t address the problem of the so-called shadow banking system, which has grown to worrying proportions. And more broadly, Xi has made it clear that reform will be gradual. In fact, the reform document states that the proposed agenda must be implemented by 2020. The Chinese are nothing if not long-term thinkers!

As for the impact on markets, Asia Confidential is likely to be in the minority in suggesting that the bold reforms are bad news for markets. Short-term, the reforms are unlikely to alleviate growing concerns about China’s credit bubble. Long-term, the switch to a consumption-led economy will undoubtedly slow GDP growth, potentially more than most think (I view this as a positive as it will mean more sustainable growth but the GDP-obsessed economists won’t see it that way).

Moreover, the Chinese stock market itself is dominated by SOEs and cutting into their profits will undoubtedly hurt the market. The obvious trade in China remains to avoid regulated industries – such as financials and utilities – which will be stung by these reforms and stick with less regulated industries such as consumer staples and consumer discretionary.

Bold, broad-ranging reforms

A key meeting of Communist Party leaders wrapped up mid-week and the leaders then issued a statement which said little. The financial media and China bears had a field day bagging the meeting. Meanwhile China bulls groaned but urged patience as further announcements on reform might still be forthcoming.

Fast forward to Friday and the state news agency, Xinhua, released a 20,000 word document from the meeting. It was a bombshell as it went above and beyond the expectations of a even the most ardent China optimist.

Let’s go through the key items:

Market reform

  • Accelerate yuan convertibility and interest rate reform.
  • Push pricing reform for oil, gas, power, water, transportation, telecom & other sectors.
  • Allow local governments to expand financing channels for construction projects, including the issuance of bonds.
  • Set up free-trade zones in more areas.
  • Improve treasury yield curves to reflect market supply and demand.

Property reform

  • Push through legislation for a property tax and go ahead with further reforms at “an appropriate time”.

SOE reform

  • 30% of profits from state assets will go toward public finances, principally social security. That’s up from 15%.
  • Allow non-state involvement in government projects.
  • Proactively pursue a “mixed ownership economy”.

Population reform

  • Relax the one-child policy. Couples may have two children if either of the parents was an only child.
  • Accelerate so-called Hukou (residentship) reform. This will allow people in rural areas easier means to move into urban areas.
  • Study policies to delay the retirement age.

Political reform

  • Abolish re-education labor camps.
  • Place more emphasis on management of resource consumption, overcapacity, debt and the environment.
  • Change policy of judging performance of officials primarily by growth rates achieved.
  • Strengthen anti-corruption measures.

Legal reform

  • Reduce the power of local governments over the court system and move towards an independent and fair j
    udiciary.

The surprises

A number of the items were well-flagged but many weren’t. Amid the proposed market reforms, the removal of a broad-range of price controls is a surprise and welcome move. The remaining market reforms had been expected and the government has already starting implementing several of them, such as free-trade zones.

The idea of a property tax isn’t unexpected but the key will be in implementation. The fact is that the government has tried to clamp down on a property bubble with various measures for a number of years and yet the bubble has inflated during that time.

In terms of SOE reform, the increased profits going towards social security isn’t totally unexpected but is a big step nonetheless. For several years, China has shown a clear commitment to improving its social security system and this is another step in that direction. It’s a needed step given the country’s rapidly ageing population, thanks to the one-child policy.

Other reforms proposed for SOEs are somewhat vague but there is a clear commitment to reduce state involvement in the economy and correspondingly increase private sector involvement. That’s a good thing.

Relaxation of the one-child policy has already garnered international headlines. But this was well flagged for months and it’s actually not a radical reform. It’s best described as incremental. Many people would be disappointed that further loosening didn’t happen.

Hukou reform has been talked about for months. It is significant as it’s likely to increase urbanisation (people moving from country to city). That’ll drive increased consumption, an important goal of the new regime.

Studying delays to the retirement age is an interesting one. I hadn’t seen this flagged prior to the meeting, though it may have been.

As for political reforms, one of the biggest surprises is undoubtedly the proposed abolition of labor camps. These camps have been hugely controversial both within China and outside. Even China critics will be somewhat taken aback by this measure.

The remaining political reforms are all largely expected. It’s good to see that better management of debt is one of the goals. A vague statement granted, but nice to see that it’s a priority given the current credit bubble.

But the biggest surprise for mine is the proposed legal reforms. The text of the document on these reforms is more detailed than I’ve outlined here, but moves toward establishing an independent judiciary is groundbreaking. If implemented, it will have huge implications for property rights and the conduct of business affairs.

What’s missing?

Ok, the reform agenda may be bold and broad-ranging, but what doesn’t it address? Broadly, my sense is that the new government may not be taking the risks from China’s credit bubble seriously enough. I say this because the document doesn’t address the non-performing loan problem among the banks. For those new to the subject, the state-owned banks largely funded the mammoth 2009 stimulus undertaken by the government. No-one doubts many of these loans can’t be repaid but the banks aren’t recognising the bad debts on their books.

Secondly, the reform agenda does suggest a new property tax, but count me among the skeptics. China’s property bubble has been years in the making and many government measures have been utter failures. And if the new government was serious about addressing the issue, it would’ve already done so.

Finally, the document suggests implementation of reform will be gradual. I like the fact that the Chinese leadership are long-term thinkers and don’t rush into decisions, despite pressure from the financial media and investment community to do otherwise. But China’s credit problem is critical and needs immediate attention. Time is not on their side when it comes to this issue. But I’m not sure that the Chinese leaders realise this.

Asia Confidential fully understands that Xi Jinping has to consolidate his political power before he can aggressively move forward with his reform agenda. Not much of the commentariat appreciate this important point. However, the hope here is that he can consolidate power soon to accelerate reform in the near-term.

Why the reforms are bad for markets

When the reform agenda was released on Friday, China’s stock market immediately popped. The reaction was understandable given low expectations following a vague statement issued immediately post the leadership meeting.

A mix of relief and surprise at the extent of the proposed reforms may be enough to push Chinese markets higher earlier this week. But upon further analysis, the reaction may become more mixed, if not negative.

There are a few simple reasons why I think these bold reforms will be negative for markets. First, it’s obvious that this will be net-negative for the majority of China-listed companies. Investment firm, Eastspring Investments, estimates 64% of profit from the Chinese stock market comes from sectors which have benefited from regulated pricing – such as banks and utilities. These sectors will get pummeled by the proposed reforms and consequently so will profits for the majority of Chinese-listed firms. That’s bad for the local stock market.

More broadly, I don’t think this reform agenda will reduce concerns about China’s growing debt bubble. These concerns may actually grow. The bubble is a real problem which needs concrete, immediate solutions that this agenda doesn’t provide.

Long-term, if the agenda’s reforms are implemented in full, there’s a greater chance of China growing in a more sustainable manner. That’s undoubtedly a good thing for China. However, the switch to a more consumption-led economy will almost certainly mean much slower GDP growth. Over the past decade, investment growth has averaged close to 15%, while consumption growth has averaged about 9%. If you’re committed to significantly slowing investment growth, then consumption has to make up some of the difference. And it’s very unlikely too given it’s already coming from a high base. Therefore, simple maths suggests that GDP growth slowing towards 5% is highly probably over the next five years. The world may not be prepared for this type of slowdown.

This was originally published at Asia Confidential:
http://asiaconf.com/2013/11/17/chinas-reforms-bad-for-markets/


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/665JDbE52wc/story01.htm Asia Confidential

China’s Bold Reforms Are Bad News For Markets

China has unveiled its most sweeping reform agenda in more than 30 years, after a meeting of key Communist Party leaders in Beijing last week. The agenda aims to transition China to a more free-market consumer economy with fewer social controls. On the economic front, the plans include reducing the power of giant state-owned companies, removing a swathe of price controls, phasing out caps on interest rates and moving towards yuan convertibility. More broadly, the plans also outline loosening the one-child policy, abolishing the controversial “re-education” labor camps and introducing steps toward an independent judiciary.

Surprises include the commitment to reducing the power of state-owned enterprises (SOEs), as this wasn’t flagged prior to the meeting. The breadth of price controls to be removed – including water, oil, gas and power – is also a surprise. Though its made headlines, relaxation of the one-child policy was well flagged and actually doesn’t go as far as some would have liked. One of the most unexpected reforms is the abolition of labor camps. This was a key gripe of foreign governments as it allowed the detention of people without trial.

So what’s missing then? Well, the agenda doesn’t specifically address bank non-performing loan (NPL) issues. Though it’s pledged to introduce a property tax to curb the housing bubble, taxes have been introduced before with minimal impact. It also doesn’t address the problem of the so-called shadow banking system, which has grown to worrying proportions. And more broadly, Xi has made it clear that reform will be gradual. In fact, the reform document states that the proposed agenda must be implemented by 2020. The Chinese are nothing if not long-term thinkers!

As for the impact on markets, Asia Confidential is likely to be in the minority in suggesting that the bold reforms are bad news for markets. Short-term, the reforms are unlikely to alleviate growing concerns about China’s credit bubble. Long-term, the switch to a consumption-led economy will undoubtedly slow GDP growth, potentially more than most think (I view this as a positive as it will mean more sustainable growth but the GDP-obsessed economists won’t see it that way).

Moreover, the Chinese stock market itself is dominated by SOEs and cutting into their profits will undoubtedly hurt the market. The obvious trade in China remains to avoid regulated industries – such as financials and utilities – which will be stung by these reforms and stick with less regulated industries such as consumer staples and consumer discretionary.

Bold, broad-ranging reforms

A key meeting of Communist Party leaders wrapped up mid-week and the leaders then issued a statement which said little. The financial media and China bears had a field day bagging the meeting. Meanwhile China bulls groaned but urged patience as further announcements on reform might still be forthcoming.

Fast forward to Friday and the state news agency, Xinhua, released a 20,000 word document from the meeting. It was a bombshell as it went above and beyond the expectations of a even the most ardent China optimist.

Let’s go through the key items:

Market reform

  • Accelerate yuan convertibility and interest rate reform.
  • Push pricing reform for oil, gas, power, water, transportation, telecom & other sectors.
  • Allow local governments to expand financing channels for construction projects, including the issuance of bonds.
  • Set up free-trade zones in more areas.
  • Improve treasury yield curves to reflect market supply and demand.

Property reform

  • Push through legislation for a property tax and go ahead with further reforms at “an appropriate time”.

SOE reform

  • 30% of profits from state assets will go toward public finances, principally social security. That’s up from 15%.
  • Allow non-state involvement in government projects.
  • Proactively pursue a “mixed ownership economy”.

Population reform

  • Relax the one-child policy. Couples may have two children if either of the parents was an only child.
  • Accelerate so-called Hukou (residentship) reform. This will allow people in rural areas easier means to move into urban areas.
  • Study policies to delay the retirement age.

Political reform

  • Abolish re-education labor camps.
  • Place more emphasis on management of resource consumption, overcapacity, debt and the environment.
  • Change policy of judging performance of officials primarily by growth rates achieved.
  • Strengthen anti-corruption measures.

Legal reform

  • Reduce the power of local governments over the court system and move towards an independent and fair judiciary.

The surprises

A number of the items were well-flagged but many weren’t. Amid the proposed market reforms, the removal of a broad-range of price controls is a surprise and welcome move. The remaining market reforms had been expected and the government has already starting implementing several of them, such as free-trade zones.

The idea of a property tax isn’t unexpected but the key will be in implementation. The fact is that the government has tried to clamp down on a property bubble with various measures for a number of years and yet the bubble has inflated during that time.

In terms of SOE reform, the increased profits going towards social security isn’t totally unexpected but is a big step nonetheless. For several years, China has shown a clear commitment to improving its social security system and this is another step in that direction. It’s a needed step given the country’s rapidly ageing population, thanks to the one-child policy.

Other reforms proposed for SOEs are somewhat vague but there is a clear commitment to reduce state involvement in the economy and correspondingly increase private sector involvement. That’s a good thing.

Relaxation of the one-child policy has already garnered international headlines. But this was well flagged for months and it’s actually not a radical reform. It’s best described as incremental. Many people would be disappointed that further loosening didn’t happen.

Hukou reform has been talked about for months. It is significant as it’s likely to increase urbanisation (people moving from country to city). That’ll drive increased consumption, an important goal of the new regime.

Studying delays to the retirement age is an interesting one. I hadn’t seen this flagged prior to the meeting, though it may have been.

As for political reforms, one of the biggest surprises is undoubtedly the proposed abolition of labor camps. These camps have been hugely controversial both within China and outside. Even China critics will be somewhat taken aback by this measure.

The remaining political reforms are all largely expected. It’s good to see that better management of debt is one of the goals. A vague statement granted, but nice to see that it’s a priority given the current credit bubble.

But the biggest surprise for mine is the proposed legal reforms. The text of the document on these reforms is more detailed than I’ve outlined here, but moves toward establishing an independent judiciary is groundbreaking. If implemented, it will have huge implications for property rights and the conduct of business affairs.

What’s missing?

Ok, the reform agenda may be bold and broad-ranging, but what doesn’t it address? Broadly, my sense is that the new government may not be taking the risks from China’s credit bubble seriously enough. I say this because the document doesn’t address the non-performing loan problem among the banks. For those new to the subject, the state-owned banks largely funded the mammoth 2009 stimulus undertaken by the government. No-one doubts many of these loans can’t be repaid but the banks aren’t recognising the bad debts on their books.

Secondly, the reform agenda does suggest a new property tax, but count me among the skeptics. China’s property bubble has been years in the making and many government measures have been utter failures. And if the new government was serious about addressing the issue, it would’ve already done so.

Finally, the document suggests implementation of reform will be gradual. I like the fact that the Chinese leadership are long-term thinkers and don’t rush into decisions, despite pressure from the financial media and investment community to do otherwise. But China’s credit problem is critical and needs immediate attention. Time is not on their side when it comes to this issue. But I’m not sure that the Chinese leaders realise this.

Asia Confidential fully understands that Xi Jinping has to consolidate his political power before he can aggressively move forward with his reform agenda. Not much of the commentariat appreciate this important point. However, the hope here is that he can consolidate power soon to accelerate reform in the near-term.

Why the reforms are bad for markets

When the reform agenda was released on Friday, China’s stock market immediately popped. The reaction was understandable given low expectations following a vague statement issued immediately post the leadership meeting.

A mix of relief and surprise at the extent of the proposed reforms may be enough to push Chinese markets higher earlier this week. But upon further analysis, the reaction may become more mixed, if not negative.

There are a few simple reasons why I think these bold reforms will be negative for markets. First, it’s obvious that this will be net-negative for the majority of China-listed companies. Investment firm, Eastspring Investments, estimates 64% of profit from the Chinese stock market comes from sectors which have benefited from regulated pricing – such as banks and utilities. These sectors will get pummeled by the proposed reforms and consequently so will profits for the majority of Chinese-listed firms. That’s bad for the local stock market.

More broadly, I don’t think this reform agenda will reduce concerns about China’s growing debt bubble. These concerns may actually grow. The bubble is a real problem which needs concrete, immediate solutions that this agenda doesn’t provide.

Long-term, if the agenda’s reforms are implemented in full, there’s a greater chance of China growing in a more sustainable manner. That’s undoubtedly a good thing for China. However, the switch to a more consumption-led economy will almost certainly mean much slower GDP growth. Over the past decade, investment growth has averaged close to 15%, while consumption growth has averaged about 9%. If you’re committed to significantly slowing investment growth, then consumption has to make up some of the difference. And it’s very unlikely too given it’s already coming from a high base. Therefore, simple maths suggests that GDP growth slowing towards 5% is highly probably over the next five years. The world may not be prepared for this type of slowdown.

This was originally published at Asia Confidential:
http://asiaconf.com/2013/11/17/chinas-reforms-bad-for-markets/


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/665JDbE52wc/story01.htm Asia Confidential

BitCoin Rises Over $500

One day before the Senate’s digital currency hearing titled “Beyond Silk Road: Potential Risks, Threats, and Promises of Virtual Currencies“, BitCoin is largely oblivious to any potential regulatory threats, either at the legislative or the city level, where as reported previously the New York superintendent is in a rush to enforce BitLicenses on businesses that accept BitCoin, and moments ago crossed $500 for the first time ever. Instead, it appears that as we also reported previously, the Chinese BitCoin craze has reached the parabolic threshold, going so far as making BitCoin an acceptable payment for real estate, which means that while for the time being BitCoin becomes the alternative inflation protection medium for hundreds of millions of Chinese, all bets on how high it can get are off.

Intraday chart:

1 Year Chart:

1 Year log chart:

 

Curious where the demand is coming from? A week ago we showed a handy utility, FiatLeak, which shows where the BitCoin transactions are taking place:

 

Finally, for those curious what a “fair value” on BitCoin may be, here is what we presented a week ago, courtesy of Global Macro Investor’s Raoul Pal:

So yes: Bitcoin is volatile. Very. That much is clear. But what is not so clear, and perhaps a key reason for this volatility, is just what the fundamental, or intrinsic value of BitCoins is when one strips away the pure euphoric momentum to the upside or downside.

To answer that question, we go to Raoul Pal, head of the Global Macro Investor, and his November 1st recommendation to “Buy Bitcoins”(when BTC was $210 so nearly a 100% return in 1 week) which among other things attempts to “value BTC using a macro framework” or, in other words, the first supply-demand driven fair value assessment of BTC.

His take, and price target, in a nutshell:

A fudge, but not a stupid one

 

Let’s use a broad guesstimate. One Bitcoin should theoretically be worth 700 ounces of gold or pretty close to $1,000,000, if we adjust existing supply of both to equal eachother.

 

One BTC is currently worth 0.14 ounces of gold.

 

That gives BTC an upside of 5000 times to equal the current price of gold, supply adjusted. Clearly, I and everyone else believes that Gold may well be much higher than here in the next 5 to 10 years, thus versus the US Dollar the upside for BTC could be multiples of that.

 

Now, before you shake your head, simply go back to the chart of Gold versus the US Dollar and just recognise that it has risen 8750% since the 1920s. And just remember that Microsoft rose 61,000% from its IPO to it’s peak.

 

Considering what we know about the world, I personally believe that Bitcoin may well explode in value as more and more people begin to use it.

 

If you stuck $5,000 into Bitcoins and each Bitcoin did go up to a gold equivalent of let’s say, only 100 ounces of gold (not the potential fair value of 700), then at current prices your Bitcoin stash would be worth $3.3m.

 

Now that’s what I call a tail-risk option. It’s either worth zero or it’s worth a truly outstanding amount of money.

 

I bet you never thought you’d see this in a macro publication. But I’m serious. This just might work.

Read on in the attached pdf below (link)


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/KqiilDWMl3o/story01.htm Tyler Durden

D.C. Insurance Commissioner Given Walking Papers After Questioning Obamacare Fix

The firings will continue until morale improvesIt seems as though a “national
conversation” will not be part of the solution to fixing the
insurance coverage messes that have followed the launch of health
exchanges. The insurance commissioner of Washington, D.C., tried
and is now
looking for a new job
. Courtesy of The Washington
Post
:

A day after he questioned President Obama’s decision
to unwind a major tenet of the health-care law and said
the nation’s capital might not go along, D.C. insurance
commissioner William P. White was fired.

White was called into a meeting Friday afternoon with one of
Mayor Vincent C. Gray’s (D) top deputies and told that the mayor
“wants to go in a different direction,” White told The
Washington Post
on Saturday.

White said the mayoral deputy never said that he was being asked
to leave because of his Thursday statement on health care. But he
said the timing was hard to ignore. Roughly 24 hours later, White
said, he was “basically being told, ‘Thanks, but no thanks.’ ”

On Thursday, after the president announced that he was going to
try to get insurance companies to delay cancellations for a year of
policies that were not in compliance with the Affordable Care Act’s
coverage requirements, White was one of the people who worried it
would make a bad situation even worse. He issued a statement
agreeing with the National Association of Insurance Commissioners
that the change “threatens to undermine the new market, and may
lead to higher premiums and market disruptions in 2014 and
beyond.”

The statement has been removed from the department’s web site.
Sources tell The Washington Post leaders were upset that
the statement had not been vetted by the mayor’s office before
posting.

Read the whole story
here
.

Follow this story and more at Reason
24/7
.

Spice up your blog or Website with Reason 24/7 news and
Reason articles. You can get the
 widgets
here
. If you have a story that would be of
interest to Reason’s readers please let us know by emailing the
24/7 crew at 24_7@reason.com, or tweet us stories
at 
@reason247.

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2013/11/17/dc-insurance-commissioner-given-walking
via IFTTT

Cathy Reisenwitz on the Dangerous E-Verify Mandate in Immigration Reform

E-VerifyWith the
clock ticking on the legislative session, President Obama held a
Roosevelt Room meeting on immigration reform, even as House Speaker
John Boehner dismissed the idea, at least for this year. At issue
is the Senate’s “Gang of Eight” bill. It offers many of America’s
11 million undocumented immigrants a path to citizenship while
still requiring them to pay back taxes. It’s also designed to make
legal immigration easier and illegal immigration more difficult.
Importantly, writes Cathy Reisenwitz, it mandates the use of the
federal government’s intrusive and unreliable E-Verify system,
aimed at cracking down on employers who hire unauthorized
workers.

View this article.

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2013/11/17/cathy-reisenwitz-on-the-dangerous-e-veri
via IFTTT

US Drone Strikes Navy Ship By Mistake

While hardly as dramatic as last week’s revelation that Syrian Al-Qaeda cannibals apologized after chopping off the head of one of their CIA-funded “rebels” by mistake, the news that a US drone struck a US missile cruiser during training off Southern California, causing two minor injuries is maybe even more embarrassing. After all, with Al-Qaeda one can at least make a legitimate case of a friendly fire, er, beheading incident. When it comes to the coast off SoCal, it will be difficult to suggest the Chinese (or Russian) navies were running sorties next to the surfers off Point Mugu.

From AP:

The Navy says an aerial target drone malfunctioned and struck a guided missile cruiser during training off Southern California, causing two minor injuries.

 

Lt. Lenaya (luh-NEY-yah) Rotklein of the U.S. Third Fleet said the accident on the USS Chancellorsville happened Saturday afternoon while the ship was testing its combat weapons system off Point Mugu.

 

She said two sailors were treated for minor burns after the ship was struck. She said the ship was heading back to Naval Base San Diego so that officials can assess the damage.

 

Rotklein said the drone was being used to test the ship’s radar. She had no immediate information on whether the drone has malfunctioned before.

 

About 300 crew members were aboard the ship.

 

The Navy was investigating the cause of the drone malfunction.

Syrian “hackers” to be blamed shortly (just like in the case of healthcare.gov), as the time for Obama’s internet kill swtich “put option” is long overue.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/iVnZvwcgOOE/story01.htm Tyler Durden

J.D. Tuccille Talks Bogus TSA Spidey Senses and Security Theater on RT


There’s no evidence that the Transportation Security
Administration’s Screening of Passengers by Observation Techniques
program actually works
, the Government Accountability Office
reported last week—for the third time. The GAO asked, given the
lack of scientific support for the approach, why the TSA is
deploying thousands of behavior detection officers, at a cost of
$200 million dollars per year, to exercise their spidey senses in
airport terminals.

Just days later, independent security researcher Evan Booth, of
Terminal Cornucopia, demonstrated that
you can build a grenade with materials purchased at the airport

after you pass through the TSA checkpoint. In the past,
he’s built incendiaries, crossbows, and other weapons on the same
principle.

As you can imagine, this provided the basis for an interesting
conversation about airport security with RT’s Ameera David.

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2013/11/17/jd-tuccille-talks-bogus-tsa-spidey-sense
via IFTTT

Buy America's Longest War: A Film About Drug Prohibition

 

I’m happy to let Reason readers know that the feature-length
documentary America’s
Longest War: A Film About Drug Prohibition
is on sale at
Amazon. Made by Paul Feine and Alex Manning – the team that brought
you the award-winning Reason Saves Cleveland with Drew Carey
 America’s Longest War is an unflinching and
deeply disturbing analysis of how the drug war destroys lives and
causes untold suffering and waste.

There are many
victims of the drug war, and AMERICA’S LONGEST WAR tells some of
their stories.

In 2001, Cory Maye, a black man in Mississippi, shot and killed
an intruder while protecting his 18-month old daughter. The
intruder turned out to be a white police officer conducting a raid,
and Maye was sent to prison for murder. Maye was ultimately
released in the Summer of 2011.

Jose Guerena is a retired Marine who served two tours in Iraq.
In the Spring of 2011, Guerena heard people breaking into his
Arizona home, told his wife and son to hide in the closet, and
grabbed his military weapon. Police broke in the door and fired 71
bullets, hitting Guerena 22 times. Guerena bled to death alone,
inside his home. The police found nothing incriminating inside the
house.

In 1991, Robert Moss and his wife had a one-year old and a baby
on the way when Moss was convicted of conspiracy to violate
marijuana laws. Because of federal sentencing guidelines passed in
the mid-80s, Moss was sentenced to more than 20 years in federal
prison. Moss returned to his family in Seattle in the Fall of
2011.

Sandra Rodriguez is a reporter at El Diario, a newspaper in
Ciudad Juarez, Mexico. Over the past few years, Rodriguez has been
a first-hand witness to an astounding escalation in drug war
related violence and the executions of two of her colleagues.
Neither case has been solved, but that’s no surprise. Fewer than 3%
of the murders in Juarez are investigated.

In 2012, Aaron Sandusky, a medical marijuana dispensary owner in
California, was found guilty of conspiracy to violate federal
marijuana laws. Sandusky is now in prison serving a 10-year
sentence.

AMERICA’S LONGEST WAR features interviews with presidential
candidate Gary Johnson, Harvard economist Jeffrey Miron, Huffington
Post investigative reporter Radley Balko, Alice Huffman of the
NAACP, Alison Holcomb of the ACLU, Ethan Nadelmann of the Drug
Policy Alliance, author John Gibler, El Diario de Juarez reporter
Sandra Rodriguez Nieto, UTEP professor Tony Payan, El Paso city
representative Suzie Byrd, federal public defender Guy Iversen,
former cop Neill Franklin, Judge James P. Gray and former DEA
Administrator Robert Bonner. Original score by Doug de Forest.

America’s Longest War includes a succinct history of
the racist roots of drug policy, an update on the story of Corey
Maye (who was placed on death row after defending himself and his
child in a no-knock drug raid), a report of drug-prohibition-fueled
violence in Mexico, a disturbing tally of Barack Obama’s awful
record, and more. 

For more information and to buy the DVD for just $11.95,
go here now.

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2013/11/17/buy-americas-longest-war-a-film-about-dr
via IFTTT

Buy America’s Longest War: A Film About Drug Prohibition

 

I’m happy to let Reason readers know that the feature-length
documentary America’s
Longest War: A Film About Drug Prohibition
is on sale at
Amazon. Made by Paul Feine and Alex Manning – the team that brought
you the award-winning Reason Saves Cleveland with Drew Carey
 America’s Longest War is an unflinching and
deeply disturbing analysis of how the drug war destroys lives and
causes untold suffering and waste.

There are many
victims of the drug war, and AMERICA’S LONGEST WAR tells some of
their stories.

In 2001, Cory Maye, a black man in Mississippi, shot and killed
an intruder while protecting his 18-month old daughter. The
intruder turned out to be a white police officer conducting a raid,
and Maye was sent to prison for murder. Maye was ultimately
released in the Summer of 2011.

Jose Guerena is a retired Marine who served two tours in Iraq.
In the Spring of 2011, Guerena heard people breaking into his
Arizona home, told his wife and son to hide in the closet, and
grabbed his military weapon. Police broke in the door and fired 71
bullets, hitting Guerena 22 times. Guerena bled to death alone,
inside his home. The police found nothing incriminating inside the
house.

In 1991, Robert Moss and his wife had a one-year old and a baby
on the way when Moss was convicted of conspiracy to violate
marijuana laws. Because of federal sentencing guidelines passed in
the mid-80s, Moss was sentenced to more than 20 years in federal
prison. Moss returned to his family in Seattle in the Fall of
2011.

Sandra Rodriguez is a reporter at El Diario, a newspaper in
Ciudad Juarez, Mexico. Over the past few years, Rodriguez has been
a first-hand witness to an astounding escalation in drug war
related violence and the executions of two of her colleagues.
Neither case has been solved, but that’s no surprise. Fewer than 3%
of the murders in Juarez are investigated.

In 2012, Aaron Sandusky, a medical marijuana dispensary owner in
California, was found guilty of conspiracy to violate federal
marijuana laws. Sandusky is now in prison serving a 10-year
sentence.

AMERICA’S LONGEST WAR features interviews with presidential
candidate Gary Johnson, Harvard economist Jeffrey Miron, Huffington
Post investigative reporter Radley Balko, Alice Huffman of the
NAACP, Alison Holcomb of the ACLU, Ethan Nadelmann of the Drug
Policy Alliance, author John Gibler, El Diario de Juarez reporter
Sandra Rodriguez Nieto, UTEP professor Tony Payan, El Paso city
representative Suzie Byrd, federal public defender Guy Iversen,
former cop Neill Franklin, Judge James P. Gray and former DEA
Administrator Robert Bonner. Original score by Doug de Forest.

America’s Longest War includes a succinct history of
the racist roots of drug policy, an update on the story of Corey
Maye (who was placed on death row after defending himself and his
child in a no-knock drug raid), a report of drug-prohibition-fueled
violence in Mexico, a disturbing tally of Barack Obama’s awful
record, and more. 

For more information and to buy the DVD for just $11.95,
go here now.

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2013/11/17/buy-americas-longest-war-a-film-about-dr
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Israel Working With Saudi Arabia On Iran "Contingency" Attack

When last week’s Iran nuclear talks were blocked by France, it provided a useful glimpse into just who it was that would benefit politically from a continuation of the regional confrontation. But while the French sabotage was an amusing distraction, it revealed a curious shift in middle-east alliances, namely old “enemies” Israel and Saudi Arabia, both feeling shunned by Big Brother, suddenly becoming the best of buddies. It was only a matter of time before this novel alliance moved beyond just paper and tested how far it could go in real life. Said test may come far sooner than expected: according to the Sunday Times, Israel’s Mossad and Saudi Arabia are planning an attack against Iran if negotiations and talks don’t come to an agreement, and that Saudia Arabia will permit Israel to use their air space for an attack on Iran including full technical support.

According to the Sunday Times, the Saudis would assist an Israeli attack by cooperating with the use of drones, rescue helicopters, and tanker planes. “Once the Geneva agreement is signed, the military option will be back on the table. The Saudis are furious and are willing to give Israel all the help it needs,” said the paper citing an unnamed official.

The flipside is that by pursuing an outright attack of Iran, the new Israel-Saudi axis would implicitly go against the wishes of not only Russia but, if John Kerry’s detente posture is to be believed, that of the US itself.

Israel’s PM Natanyahu naturally knows this, so instead he is merely lobbying for even more political support starting in the one country, France, which has aligned itself with the new Middle East axis, even as Israel’s old allies appear to have foresaken it. Jerusalem Post reports:

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said in an interview with French daily Le Figaro on Saturday that there is a “meeting of the minds” between Israel and the “leading states in the Arab world” on the Iran issue – “one of the few cases in memory, if not the first case in modern times.”

 

“We all think that Iran should not be allowed to have the capacities to make nuclear weapons,” he said. “We all think that a tougher stance should be taken by the international community. We all believe that if Iran were to have nuclear weapons, this could lead to a nuclear arms race in the Middle East, making the Middle East a nuclear tinderbox.”

 

Saying that an Iran with nuclear arms would be the most dangerous development for the world since the mid-20th century, and stressing that the “stakes are amazing,” Netanyahu urged the world’s leaders to pay attention “when Israel and the Arabs see eye-to-eye.”

 

“We live here,” he said. “We know something about this region. We know a great deal about Iran and its plans. It’s worthwhile to pay attention to what we say.”

 

Netanyahu made the comments as French President Francois Hollande was set to arrive in Israel for talks on Iran on Sunday.

In the meantime, Iran which suddenly finds itself the creme of the international diplomatic circle and is in full compliance with what the US demands, is explaining – via RT – just why a joint attack on its by supposedly former enemies will not happen:

 Iranian political analyst Seyed Mohammad Marandi told RT that an imminent joint attack on Iran was unlikely given the serious ramifications it could provoke for the region.

 

“It is highly unlikely that the Saudis and Israelis would want to attack Iran because at the end of the day both countries would be losers, they would be seen as aggressors and obviously the Iranians would retaliate,” Marandi told RT.

 

Although he consented that the Saudis and Israelis have been moving closer together lately, neither of them stood to gain from attacking Iran.

 

“It would create an economic catastrophe for the world and only the Saudis and the Israelis would be to blame,” said Marandi.

Then again, considering a GDP-boosting economic catastrophe (recall the main reason the US wanted war with Syria is to boost the defense spending budget which lately has been in freefall) is precisely what the Fed and the Congressional muppetmasters want, we wouldn’t sleep too soundly if we were in the Ayatollah’s shoes. Especially now that thanks to Reuters the entire world, and certainly the NSA, know just where all his rainy day funds are located. Because while it is true that neither Israel nor Saudi would gain from attacking Iran, the US most certainly would. And now it has not one but two proxy countries in the region doing its bidding.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/D7ADUvE8SOI/story01.htm Tyler Durden