Pfizer, GSK & Others Quietly Hike Prices On 100s Of Drugs

Pfizer, GSK & Others Quietly Hike Prices On 100s Of Drugs

With just hours to go until the new year, Reuters reports that a group of the world’s largest drug companies is preparing to hike drug prices, defying President Trump to issue a last-minute rebuke, as he has done in the past.

Drugmakers including Pfizer Inc, Sanofi SA, and GlaxoSmithKline Plc plan to raise U.S. prices on more than 300 drugs in the United States on Jan. 1, according to drugmakers and data analyzed by healthcare research firm 3 Axis Advisors.

The hikes come as drugmakers are reeling from effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has reduced doctor visits and demand for some drugs. They are also fighting new drug price cutting rules from the Trump administration, which would reduce the industry’s profitability.

The companies kept their price increases at 10% or below, and the largest drug companies to raise prices so far, Pfizer and Sanofi, kept nearly all of their increases 5% or less, 3 Axis said. 3 Axis is a consulting firm that works with pharmacists groups, health plans and foundation on drug pricing and supply chain issues.

During the early days of the Trump presidency, reports of price hikes elicited angry tweets from the president. This dynamic was credited with staving off a hike or two, but that doesn’t change the fact that drug companies tend to raise prices on their inventory at least once, usually twice, per year. Still, even Reuters pointed out that the pace of drug price increases has “slowed substantially” since 2015, per Reuters.

And the Trump Administration is pushing legislation that would constrain drugmakers’ ability to raise prices.

Nevertheless, with drugmakers’ dedicating themselves to defeating COVID-19 (of course, the state has doled out billions of dollars in subsidies, which sort of diminishes the selflessness narrative), the industry is insisting that profits must be made up elsewhere. So prices on some 300 drugs will rise, with more formal announcements expected on Friday, and over the weekend.

GSK did raise prices on two vaccines – shingles vaccine Shingrix and diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis vaccine Pediarix – by 7% and 8.6%, respectively, 3 Axis said.

Teva Pharmaceuticals Inc hiked prices on 15 drugs, including Austedo, which treats rare neurological disorders, and asthma steroid Qvar, which together grossed more than $650 million in sales in 2019 and saw price hikes of between 5% and 6%. Teva hiked prices for some drugs, including muscle relaxant Amrix and narcolepsy treatment Nuvigil, as much as 9.4%. More price hikes are expected to be announced on Friday and in early January.

[…]

In 2020, drugmakers raised prices on more than 860 drugs by around 5 percent, on average, according to 3 Axis. Drug price increases have slowed substantially since 2015, both in terms of the size of the hikes and the number of drugs affected.

Pfizer, which threw money at its “partner”, BioNTech, to help develop and distribute a vaccine using the latter’s revolutionary mRNA technology, is one of the biggest offenders, hiking prices on cancer drugs, and the ubiquitous rheumatoid arthritis treatment Xeljanz, famous for commercials that have spawned satirical takes on social media.

Pfizer plans to raise prices on more than 60 drugs by between 0.5 % and 5%. Those include roughly 5% increases on some of its top sellers like rheumatoid arthritis treatment Xeljanz and cancer drugs Ibrance and Inlyta.

Pfizer said it had adjusted the list prices of its drugs by around 1.3% across all products in its portfolio, in line with inflation.

“This modest increase is necessary to support investments that allow us to continue to discover new medicines and deliver those breakthroughs to the patients who need them,” spokeswoman Amy Rose said in a statement, pointing in particular to the COVID-19 vaccine the company developed with Germany’s BioNTech SE.

It said that its net prices, which back out rebates to pharmacy benefit managers and other discounts, have actually fallen for the last 3 years.

By contrast, China is cracking heads to ensure that drugmakers are responding to the public’s need with massive price cuts. According to state-run media, some drugmakers are cutting prices by as much as 51%. Chinese patients can now get reimbursement for 2.8K medicines, including 1.4K Western drugs and 1,374 traditional Chinese medicines.

With holiday parties about to start, we wonder, will President Trump take another stand on twitter?

Though, at this point, even if he does, it would only serve to further complicate the relationship with these companies as ‘Operation Warp Speed’ lags further behind its target.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/31/2020 – 18:30

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3rCKiNg Tyler Durden

2020: The Year Things Started Going Badly Wrong

2020: The Year Things Started Going Badly Wrong

Authored by Gail Tverberg via Our Finite World blog,

How today’s energy problem is different from peak oil

Many people believe that the economy will start going badly wrong when we “run out of oil.” The problem we have today is indeed an energy problem, but it is a different energy problem. Let me explain it with an escalator analogy.

Figure 1. Holborn Tube Station Escalator. Photo by renaissancechambara, CC BY 2.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0, via Wikimedia Commons.

The economy is like a down escalator that citizens of the world are trying to walk upward on. At first the downward motion of the escalator is almost imperceptible, but gradually it gets to be greater and greater. Eventually the downward motion becomes almost unbearable. Many citizens long to sit down and take a rest.

In fact, a break, like the pandemic, almost comes as a relief. There is suddenly a chance to take it easy; not drive to work; not visit relatives; not keep up appearances before friends. Government officials may not be unhappy either. There may have been demonstrations by groups asking for higher wages. Telling people to stay at home provides a convenient way to end these demonstrations and restore order.

But then, restarting doesn’t work. There are too many broken pieces of the economy. Too many bankrupt companies; too many unemployed people; too much debt that cannot be repaid. And, a virus that really doesn’t quite go away, leaving people worried and unwilling to attempt to resume normal activities.

Some might describe the energy story as a “diminishing returns” story, but it’s really broader than this. It’s a story of services that we expect to continue, but which cannot continue without much more energy investment. It is also a story of the loss of “economies of scale” that at one time helped propel the economy forward.

In this post, I will explain some of the issues I see affecting the economy today. They tend to push the economy down, like a down escalator. They also make economic growth more difficult.

[1] Many resources take an increasing amount of effort to obtain or extract, because we use the easiest to obtain first. Many people would call this a diminishing returns problem.

Let’s look at a few examples:

(a) Water. When there were just a relatively few humans on the earth, drinking water from a nearby stream was a reasonable approach. This is the approach used by animals; humans could use it as well. As the number of humans rose, we found we needed additional approaches to gather enough potable water: First shallow wells were dug. Then we found that we needed to dig deeper wells. We found that lake water could be used, but we needed to filter it and treat it first. In some places, now, we find that desalination is needed. In fact, after desalination, we need to put the correct minerals back into it and pump it to the destination where it is required.

All of these approaches can indeed be employed. In theory, we would never run out of water. The problem is that as we move up the chain of treatments, an increasing amount of energy of some kind needs to be used. At first, humans could use some of their spare time (and energy) to dig wells. As more advanced approaches were chosen, the need for supplemental energy besides human energy became greater. Each of us individually cannot produce the water we need; instead, we must directly, or indirectly, pay for this water. The fact that we have to pay for this water with part of our wages reduces the portion of our wages available for other goods.

(b) Metals. Whenever some group decides to mine a metal ore, the ore that is taken first tends to be easy to access ore of high quality, close to where it needs to be used. As the best mines get depleted, producers use lower-grade ores, transported over longer distances. The shift toward less optimal mines requires more energy. Some of this additional energy could be human energy, but some of the energy would be supplied by fossil fuels, operating machinery in order to supplement human labor. Supplemental energy needs become greater and greater as mines become increasingly depleted. As technology advances, energy needs become greater, because some of the high-tech devices require materials that can only be formed at very high temperatures.

(c) Wild Animals Including Fish. When pre-humans moved out of Africa, they killed off the largest game animals on every continent that they moved to. It was still possible to hunt wild game in these areas, but the animals were smaller. The return on the human labor invested was smaller. Now, most of the meat we eat is produced on farms. The same pattern exists in fishing. Most of the fish the world eats today is produced on fish farms. We now need entire industries to provide food that early humans could obtain themselves. These farms directly and indirectly consume fossil fuel energy. In fact, more energy is used as more animals/fish are produced.

(d) Fossil Fuels. We keep hearing about the possibility of “running out” of oil, but this is not really the issue with oil. In fact, it is not the issue with coal or natural gas, either. The issue is one of diminishing returns. There is (and always will be) what looks like plenty left. The problem is that the process of extraction consumes increasing amounts of resources as deeper, more complex oil or gas wells need to be drilled and as coal mines farther away from users of the coal are developed. Many people have jumped to the conclusion that this means that the price that buyers of fossil fuel will pay will rise. This isn’t really true. It means that the cost of production will rise, leading to lower profitability. The lower profitability is likely to be spread in many ways: lower taxes paid, cutbacks in wages and pension plans, and perhaps a sale to a new owner, at a lower price. Eventually, low energy prices will lead to production stopping. Without adequate fossil fuels, the whole economic system will be disrupted, and the result will be severe recession or depression. There are also likely to be many job losses.

In (a) through (d) above, we are seeing an increasing share of the output of the economy being used in inefficient ways: in creating deeper water wells and desalination plants; in drilling oil wells in more difficult locations; in extracting metal ores that are mostly waste products. The extent of this inefficiency tends to increase over time. This is what leads to the effect of an escalator descending faster and faster, just as we humans are trying to walk up it.

Humans work for wages, but they find that when they buy a box of corn flakes, very little of the price actually goes to the farmer growing the corn. Instead, all of the intermediate parts of the system are becoming overly large. The buyer cannot afford the end products, and the producer feels cheated by the low wholesale prices he is being paid. The system as a whole is pushed toward collapse.

[2] Increasing complexity can help maintain economic growth, but it too reaches diminishing returns.

Complexity takes many forms, including more hierarchical organization, more specialization, longer supply chains, and development of new technology. Complexity can indeed help maintain economic growth. For example, if water supply is intermittent, a country may choose to build a dam to control the flow of water and produce electricity. Complexity tends to reach diminishing returns, as noted by Joseph Tainter in The Collapse of Complex Societies. For example, economies build dams in the best locations first, and only later build them at less advantageous sites. These are a few other examples:

(a) Education. Teaching everyone to read and write has significant benefits because it allows the use of books and other written materials to disseminate information and knowledge. Teaching a few people advanced subjects has significant benefits as well. But after a certain point, the need for additional people to study a subject such as art history is low. A few people can teach the subject but doing more research on the subject probably won’t increase world GDP very much.

When we look at data from about 1970, we find that people with advanced education earned much higher incomes than those without advanced degrees. But as we add an increasing large share of people with these advanced degrees, jobs that really need these degrees are not as plentiful as the new graduates. Quite a few people with advanced degrees end up with low-paying jobs. The “return on investment” for higher education drops increasingly lower. Some students are not able to repay the debt that they took out in order to pay for their education.

(b) Medicines and vaccines. Over the years, medicines and vaccines have been developed to treat many common illnesses and diseases. After a while, the easy-to-find medicines for the common unwanted conditions (such as diabetes, high blood pressure and inflammation) have already been found. There are medicines for rare diseases that haven’t been found, but these will never have very large total sales, discouraging investment. There are also conditions that are common in very poor countries. While expensive drugs could be developed for these conditions, it is likely that few people could afford these drugs, so this, too, becomes less attractive.

If research is to continue, it is important to keep expanding work on expensive new drugs, even if it means completely ignoring old inexpensive drugs that might work equally well. A cynical person might think that this is the reason why vitamin D and ivermectin are generally being ignored in the prevention and treatment of COVID-19. Without an expanding group of high-priced new drugs, it is hard to attract capital and young workers to the field.

(c) Automobile efficiency. In the US, the big fuel efficiency change that took place was that which took place between 1975 and 1983, when a changeover was made to smaller, lighter vehicles, similar to ones that were already in use in Japan and Europe.

Figure 2. Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy, Horsepower, and Weight Since Model Year 1975, in a chart produced by the US Environmental Protection Agency. Source.

The increase in fuel efficiency between 2008 and 2019 (an 11 year period) was only 22%, compared to the 60% increase in fuel efficiency between 1975 and 1983 (an 8 year period). This is another example of diminishing returns to investment in complexity.

[3] Today’s citizens have never been told that many of the services we take for granted today, such as suppression of forest fires, are really services provided by fossil fuels.

In fact, the amount of energy required to provide these services rises each year. We expect these services to continue indefinitely, but we should be aware that they cannot continue very long, unless the energy available to the economy as a whole is rising very rapidly.

(a) Suppression of Forest Fires. Forest fires are part of nature. Many trees require fire for their seeds to germinate. Human neighbors of forests don’t like forest fires; they often encourage local authorities to put out any forest fire that starts. Such suppression allows an increasing amount of dry bush to build up. As a result, future fires spread more easily and grow larger.

At the same time, humans increasingly build homes in forested areas because of the pleasant scenery. As population expands and as fires spread more easily, forest fire suppression takes an increasing amount of resources, including fossil fuels to power helicopters used in the battles. If fossil fuels are not available, this type of service would need to stop. Trying to keep forest fires suppressed, assuming fossil fuels are available for this purpose, will take higher taxes, year after year. This is part of what makes it seem like we are trying to move our economy upward on a down escalator.

(b) Suppression of Illnesses. Illnesses are part of the cycle of nature; they disproportionately take out the old and the weak. Of course, we humans don’t really like this; the old and weak are our relatives and close friends. In fact, some of us may be old and weak.

In the last 100 years, researchers (using fossil fuels) have developed a large number of antibiotics, antivirals and vaccines to try to suppress illnesses. We find that microbes quickly mutate in new ways, defeating our attempts at suppression of illnesses. Thus, we have ever-more antibiotic resistant bacteria. The cost of today’s US healthcare system is very high, exceeding what many poor people can afford to pay. Introducing new vaccines results in an additional cost.

Closing down the system to try to stop a virus adds a huge new cost, which is disproportionately borne by the poor people of the world. If we throw more money/fossil fuels at the medical system, perhaps it can be made to work a little longer. No one tells us that disease suppression is a service of fossil fuels; if we have an increasing quantity of fossil fuels per capita, perhaps we can increase disease suppression services.

(c) Suppression of Weeds and Unwanted Insects. Researchers keep developing new chemical treatments (based on fossil fuels) to suppress weeds and unwanted insects. Unfortunately, the weeds and unwanted insects keep mutating in a way that makes the chemicals less effective. The easy solutions were found first; finding solutions that really work and don’t harm humans seems to be elusive. The early solutions were relatively cheap, but later ones have become increasingly expensive. This problem acts, in many ways, like diminishing returns.

(d) Recycling (and Indirectly, Return Transport of Empty Shipping Containers from Around the World). When oil prices are high, recycling of used items for their content makes sense, economically. When oil prices are low, recycling often requires a subsidy. This subsidy indirectly goes to pay for fossil fuels used to facilitate the recycling. Often this goes to pay for shipment to a country that will do the recycling.

When oil prices were high (prior to 2014), part of the revenue from recycling could be used to transport mixed waste products to China and India for recycling. With low oil prices, China and India have stopped accepting most recycling. Instead, it is necessary to find actual “goods” for the return voyage of a shipping container or, alternatively, pay to have the container sent back empty. Europe now seems to have a difficult time filling shipping containers for the return voyage to Asia. Because of this, the cost of obtaining shipping containers to ship goods to Europe seems to be escalating. This higher cost acts much like diminishing returns with respect to the transport of goods to Europe from Asia. This is yet another part of what is acting like a down escalator for the world economy.

[4] Another, ever higher cost is pollution control. This higher cost also exerts a downward effect on the world economy, because it acts like another intermediate cost.

As we burn increasing amounts of fossil fuels, increasing amounts of particulate matter need to be captured and disposed of. Capturing this material is only part of the problem; some of the waste material may be radioactive or may include mercury. Once the material is captured, it needs to be “locked up” in some way, so it doesn’t pollute the water and air. Whatever approach is used requires energy products of various kinds. In fact, the more fossil fuels that are burned, the bigger the waste disposal problem tends to be.

Burning more fossil fuels also leads to more CO2. Unfortunately, we don’t have suitable alternatives. Nuclear is probably as good as any, and it has serious safety issues. In my opinion, the view that intermittent wind and solar are a suitable replacement for fossil fuels represents wishful thinking. Wind and solar, because of their intermittency, can only partially replace the coal or natural gas burned to generate electricity. They cannot be relied upon for 24/7/365 generation. The unsubsidized cost of producing intermittent wind and solar energy needs to be compared to the price of coal and natural gas, not to wholesale electricity prices. There are a lot of apples to oranges comparisons being made.

[5] Among other things, the growth of the economy depends on “economies of scale” as the number of participants in the economy gradually grows. The response to COVID-19 has been extremely detrimental to economies of scale.

The economies of many countries changed dramatically, with the initial spread of COVID-19. Unfortunately, we cannot expect these changes to be completely reversed anytime soon. Part of the reason is the new virus mutation from the UK that is now of concern. Another reason is that, even with the vaccine, no one really knows how long immunity will last. Until the virus is clearly gone, vestiges of the cutbacks are likely to remain in place.

In general, businesses do well financially, as the number of buyers of the goods and services they provide rises. This happens because overhead costs, such as mortgage payments, can be spread over more buyers. The expertise of the business owners can also be used more widely.

One huge problem is the recent cutback in tourism, affecting almost every country in the world. This cutback affects both businesses directly related to tourism and businesses indirectly related to tourism, such as restaurants and hotels.

Another huge problem is social distancing rules that lead to office buildings and restaurants being used less intensively. Businesses find that they tend to have fewer customers, rather than more. Related businesses, such as taxis and dry cleaners, find that they also have fewer customers. Nursing homes and other care homes for the aged are seeing lower occupancy rates because no one wants to be locked up for months on end without being able to see other members of their family.

[6] With all of the difficulties listed in Items [1] though [5], debt based financing tends to work less and less well. Huge debt defaults can be expected to adversely affect banks, insurance companies and pension plans.

Many businesses are already near default on debt. These businesses cannot make a profit with a much reduced number of customers. If no change is possible, somehow this will need to flow through the system. Defaulting debt is likely to lead to failing banks and pension plans. In fact, governments that depend on taxes may also fail.

The shutdowns taken by economies earlier this year were very detrimental, both to businesses and to workers. A major solution to date has been to add more governmental debt to try to bail out citizens and businesses. This additional debt makes it even more difficult to maintain promised debt payments. This is yet another force making it difficult for economies to move up the growth escalator.

[7] The situation we are headed for looks much like the collapses of early civilizations.

With diminishing returns everywhere, and inadequate sources of very inexpensive energy to keep the system going, major parts of the world economic system appear headed for collapse. There doesn’t seem to be any way to keep the world economy growing rapidly enough to offset the down escalator effect.

Citizens have not been aware of how “close to the edge” we have been. Low energy prices have been deceptive, but this is what we should expect with collapse. (See, for example, Revelation 18: 11-13, telling about the lack of demand for goods of all kinds when ancient Babylon collapsed.) Low prices tend to keep fossil fuels in the ground. They also tend to discourage high-priced alternatives. Unfortunately, all the wishful thinking of the World Economic Forum and others advocating a Green New Deal does not change the reality of the situation.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/31/2020 – 18:10

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/34ZwZNg Tyler Durden

Eastern Caribbean Issues Rare Volcano Alert 

Eastern Caribbean Issues Rare Volcano Alert 

Rarely do we hear about volcanoes in the eastern Caribbean, but this week, rumblings from down under prompted officials to issue volcanic alerts in Martinique and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. 

On Tuesday, warnings were issued for La Soufriere volcano in St Vincent and the Grenadines after tremors, powerful gas emissions and a new volcanic dome were observed. 

The Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA) said that scientists observed an “effusive eruption within the crater, with visible gas and steam.”

CDEMA issued an “Orange” alert for the surrounding area around the La Soufriere volcano due to the threat of increased volcanic activity. 

“Monitoring systems, satellite imagery and visual observations have confirmed increased seismic and fumarolic activity, strong gas emissions, emergence of a satellite dome on the SE of the existing volcanic dome and changes to the crater lake.

“An effusive eruption within the crater, with visible gas and steam, was also observed on 29th December 2020,” CDEMA wrote in an update. 

Full CDEMA Update: 

A team of scientists from the Seismic Research Centre (SRC) of the University of the West Indies (UWI) will arrive in the region by the end of the week to assess the situation. 

An Orange Level alert means “eruptions may occur with less than 24 hours notice.” 

CDEMA said monitoring systems are closely watching the volcano for any sudden changes. 

UWI tweeted an image of a black mound of magma protruding from the surface of the existing dome in the crater at La Soufriere.

La Soufriere’s Eruption History 

While no evacuation orders have been issued for residents in the surrounding communities, the threat of volcanic activity and a virus-related downturn in travel and tourism could result in more devastating impacts for the economy of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/31/2020 – 17:50

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/383sBPl Tyler Durden

L.A.’s Reformist D.A. Promised To Eliminate Hate Crime Enhancements—Until Progressive Activists Gave Him a Call

Webp.net-resizeimage (15)

Newly minted Los Angeles District Attorney George Gascón isn’t making many friends in L.A. The reformist prosecutor came into office promising to stop prosecuting low-level misdemeanors, to end cash bail, to cease using the death penalty, and to eliminate sentencing enhancements.

To no one’s surprise, that to-do list drew conservatives’ ire. But the last item on the list also angered some progressives, because it included a pledge to stop upping punishments for alleged hate crimes.

That objection has carried the day. After chatting with some LGBT activists on December 17, the new D.A. has decided to “allow enhanced sentences in cases involving the most vulnerable victims and in specified extraordinary circumstances.” Those circumstances “shall be narrowly construed,” he added. In other words, sentencing enhancements are generally off the table, except when it comes to crimes that the government has deemed particularly hateful.

The irony there is rich. It is progressives who have made criminal justice one of their primary goals, seeking to curtail the carceral state. The U.S. locks people up at higher rates than any other nation in the world, they say, and the system discriminates against people of color. On both points, they are correct.

But when it comes to those who are accused of acting with a particular sort of hate, progressive reformists often pivot to a new target, and that target is the very sort of change they would fight for in virtually any other circumstance.

Calls for criminal justice reform have intensified since the May death of George Floyd, but hate-crime enhancements have historically been immune to such debates. Indeed, some officials have even invoked those calls for reform when handing out enhanced sentences. Two people in Martinez, California, for example, face hate crime charges for painting over a Black Lives Matter street mural in July; Contra Costa County District Attorney Diana Becton explained her decision by calling Black Lives Matter “an important civil rights cause that deserves all of our attention.”

Such a statement encapsulates the problem with hate crimes. An offense, no matter how petty, can receive a more punitive punishment—the exact thing reformers say they oppose—based entirely on subjective ideology. Which ideologies get penalized depends on which ideologies are in power: In Alabama, Republicans this year added police officers to the list of protected classes under hate crime legislation.

“What we probably should have calibrated better is sort of how deeply [the new directive] would be felt by our supporters, by our allies, our [prosecutors],” Joseph Iniguez, the interim chief deputy D.A., told Los Angeles Magazine. “And it wasn’t that we didn’t think about the community—but we were trying to approach it from a place of, ‘Let’s just not use this tool because for the most part, the way it’s used is disproportionate against people of color.'”

According to the most recent data from the FBI, at least 24 percent of the country’s hate crime offenders are black. Since blacks make up 13 percent of the population, such enhancements are, in fact, used disproportionately against people of color. But even if they weren’t, you aren’t really taking a stance against mass incarceration if you only oppose it for certain races. And you certainly aren’t taking a stance against mass incarceration if you get more carceral for certain crimes.

Gascón’s “whole goal was to end mass incarceration,” Iniguez said. “It still is, by the way.” Is it?

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L.A.’s Reformist D.A. Promised To Eliminate Hate Crime Enhancements—Until Progressive Activists Gave Him a Call

Webp.net-resizeimage (15)

Newly minted Los Angeles District Attorney George Gascón isn’t making many friends in L.A. The reformist prosecutor came into office promising to stop prosecuting low-level misdemeanors, to end cash bail, to cease using the death penalty, and to eliminate sentencing enhancements.

To no one’s surprise, that to-do list drew conservatives’ ire. But the last item on the list also angered some progressives, because it included a pledge to stop upping punishments for alleged hate crimes.

That objection has carried the day. After chatting with some LGBT activists on December 17, the new D.A. has decided to “allow enhanced sentences in cases involving the most vulnerable victims and in specified extraordinary circumstances.” Those circumstances “shall be narrowly construed,” he added. In other words, sentencing enhancements are generally off the table, except when it comes to crimes that the government has deemed particularly hateful.

The irony there is rich. It is progressives who have made criminal justice one of their primary goals, seeking to curtail the carceral state. The U.S. locks people up at higher rates than any other nation in the world, they say, and the system discriminates against people of color. On both points, they are correct.

But when it comes to those who are accused of acting with a particular sort of hate, progressive reformists often pivot to a new target, and that target is the very sort of change they would fight for in virtually any other circumstance.

Calls for criminal justice reform have intensified since the May death of George Floyd, but hate-crime enhancements have historically been immune to such debates. Indeed, some officials have even invoked those calls for reform when handing out enhanced sentences. Two people in Martinez, California, for example, face hate crime charges for painting over a Black Lives Matter street mural in July; Contra Costa County District Attorney Diana Becton explained her decision by calling Black Lives Matter “an important civil rights cause that deserves all of our attention.”

Such a statement encapsulates the problem with hate crimes. An offense, no matter how petty, can receive a more punitive punishment—the exact thing reformers say they oppose—based entirely on subjective ideology. Which ideologies get penalized depends on which ideologies are in power: In Alabama, Republicans this year added police officers to the list of protected classes under hate crime legislation.

“What we probably should have calibrated better is sort of how deeply [the new directive] would be felt by our supporters, by our allies, our [prosecutors],” Joseph Iniguez, the interim chief deputy D.A., told Los Angeles Magazine. “And it wasn’t that we didn’t think about the community—but we were trying to approach it from a place of, ‘Let’s just not use this tool because for the most part, the way it’s used is disproportionate against people of color.'”

According to the most recent data from the FBI, at least 24 percent of the country’s hate crime offenders are black. Since blacks make up 13 percent of the population, such enhancements are, in fact, used disproportionately against people of color. But even if they weren’t, you aren’t really taking a stance against mass incarceration if you only oppose it for certain races. And you certainly aren’t taking a stance against mass incarceration if you get more carceral for certain crimes.

Gascón’s “whole goal was to end mass incarceration,” Iniguez said. “It still is, by the way.” Is it?

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The Lesson Of 2020: What’s The Point Of Pointing Out The Hypocrisy?

The Lesson Of 2020: What’s The Point Of Pointing Out The Hypocrisy?

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

I’ve been on vacation in Mexico for the past two weeks. But that isn’t the reason content from me has been scarcer than normal. Yes, vacations are supposed to be for recharging and taking a break from your routine.

But as I sat down to write this morning the overwhelming sense of futility washed over me. And nothing saps your will to work more than reading through the headlines and noting the complete lack of conscience on display by the media, our political leadership or frankly anyone with half a brain.

We live in a world today where the legislature of one of the most important states in the Union, Pennsylvania, released a report where more than 200,000 votes were counted than were actually cast. And no one in our media seems to think this is news.

Worse, most people in America can’t even be bothered to care about such things. And if you were to confront them with the evidence there must be some good reason why that ‘just can’t be true.’

The FBI, which couldn’t find any issues with Hunter Biden’s laptop for months nor ever do anything substantial with Anthony Weiner’s laptop in FOUR YEARS somehow solved the case of the Nashville bomber in less than 48 hours conclusively.

And that conclusion was the same as every other major terrorist event in this country’s recent history – a lone crackpot blew himself up to make a half-formed political statement. At least this time they had the good sense to vaguely tie the patsy to the political left versus turn him into a mouth-breathing MAGAtard with a Q-complex.

And somehow no one seems to care. Nor does anyone care about the lack of conclusion about the shooting in Las Vegas a few years back.

Notice the trend? Major stories that are supposed to matter are dropped the moment they get anything close to uncomfortable for those in power who are chosen to remain in power.

I’ve always thought Donald Trump’s biggest flaw was that he was an incurious man, but compared to the so-called journalists of our corporate media Trump is the second coming of Sherlock Holmes for pity’s sake.

There are voter irregularities of a type and kind which demand real coverage, even if it turns out to be easy to cast doubt on them. And yet, after haranguing Americans TO CARE about voter fraud in places like Belarus, Crimea, Venezuela, Iran, Serbia, Georgia we’re supposed to swallow the lie this was the ‘most secure election in this country’s history’ without even a bottle of ketchup?

No matter where you are on the political spectrum, nor who your Twitter spirit guide is, all of these things should disturb you.

And yet, it doesn’t seem to. It is not CNN’s nor Fox’s decision to not report on them because they don’t want to engage in searching out the truth.

The hearings in the Georgia State Senate going on as I write this are hair-raising, painting a picture of corruption so detailed you’d think it was a Mandelbrot set.

Every rabbit hole you go down forks into a deeper one, revealing even more information about how truly corrupt and inhuman our political systems are and yet our media stands there like a thousand monkeys banging away on their iPhone keyboards trying to convince us what they are producing is Shakespeare and not auto-corrected Engrish.

If we’ve reached this level of whitewashing of the news and the truth to this point, I’m having to wonder why it is North Korea is so hated? I’m at a loss to come up with anything more accurate than competitive envy at fiction writing.

Hundreds of millions of people’s lives are being actively destroyed by overzealous governors and heads of state issuing draconian lockdown orders over a virus with multiple vaccines that are less effective than our own immune systems. A compromised WHO and CDC issue conflicting recommendations weekly and Dr. Mengele Fauci openly admits to lying to us.

They all do this without any sense of shame, shedding crocodile tears so unconvincing they could be runner-ups at a Miss America pageant. But we’re supposed to think we’re saved because Congress decided to give us a $600 advance to pay our 2020 income taxes with?

And I haven’t even scratched the surface here. We know why they are doing this — to support to open hostile takeover of what’s left of private capital markets and property in support of the World Economic Forum’s Great Reset.

Yet here I sit watching otherwise reasonable and naturally skeptical people still live within their normalcy bias to refuse the obvious propaganda and blame the victims.

It can’t be this bad right?

No conspiracy can be this big?

There was fraud but it’s trivial.

Y’all are just sore losers and Trump really did lose his base because of his horrific foreign policy. I swear I’ve never been sadder to call myself a libertarian than I am right now.

That is nothing but rationalization to evade the reality of what has happened and what will happen. Because the sad truth is that no matter who you are when confronted with monstrous evil most people’s first reaction is to reject it.

And they do this not because they don’t believe people are capable of it.

No, we reject evil of this magnitude because in order for us to maintain our sense of self-image as rational, caring people admitting its reality implies a responsibility to do something about it.

And stopping evil takes away from “me time.”

The same operation has been done with COVID-19, any and all data associated with it, the death statistics, the miraculous immunity to influenza Americans now seem to have, etc.

And if we are going to just sit back, mask up, accept the $600, put our heads down and “believe all talking heads” then what’s the point in pointing out the hypocrisy of it all?

The new Super-COVID is here and it’s time to believe it all again.

Isn’t that the real lesson of 2020? Don’t fight the crazy just cling to the delusion that a mask isn’t a muzzle, guns can’t protect you and we still live in a society with something approximating rules.

Isn’t that what all of this irreality is for, to desensitize us to their outrageousness? To normalize their grotesquerie? I mean, really, does anyone honestly believe any single word that comes out of Nancy Pelosi’s mouth?

I didn’t think they made masks big enough to contain the Pinocchio nose she has to have at this point. Maybe she’s had to have so much plastic surgery to contain it that it collapsed like Michael Jackson’s and it’s actually now just negative space.

I don’t know anymore.

It would almost be okay going along with all of this nonsense if they were in any way artful about it. If I could, at the very least, appreciate the craft, you know, as a writer and an artist then it would make the double whiskies go down a little easier.

I could almost stomach it if they even put in the least little effort to convince me through something approximating a good performance. I gave up on them trying to convince me with argument ages ago. But a little sincerity to go with the virtue signaling would make the game worth playing.

But they can’t even give us that anymore. That’s how much contempt they have for us.

And it’s easy for them to have that contempt because, frankly, that’s how much contempt we must have for ourselves to go along this perfunctorily towards their dystopia.

Unless 2021 is the year everything changes. Unless 2021 is the year we finally show the barest minimum of self-respect, take off the masks, turn off the screens and get prepared to fight harder than we ever have.

I’ll be here even though, at times, it feels futile. Because it is just that, a feeling. And feelings are as ephemeral and temporary as Anderson Cooper’s dalliances with the truth.

Which, I guess, is as good a lesson to absorb from 2020 as anything else.

*  *  *

Join My Patreon if you you too feel there is something horribly wrong with this world.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/31/2020 – 17:30

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Victim-Blaming During a Pandemic Doesn’t Make People Safer

LukeLetlow

I don’t remember what grade I was in—maybe late 10th or early 11th?—but I can recall with photorealistic clarity the time my Dad came into my bedroom (a rare enough occurrence) to listen to me bitch and moan about having persistent enough acne that I was desperate to try a frightfully powerful skin-sucking drug called Accutane.

“Well,” he said, shaking his head with a sympathetic but judgmental wince. “You really gotta lay off those chocolates.”

Research into the folkloric zit/candy connection was as inconclusive in the mid-1980s as it is in 2020. But the most relevant contemporaneous detail was that I didn’t freaking eat chocolates, aside from the odd In-N-Out milkshake. Bad enough that a parent doesn’t know his kid’s preferences; considerably worse to affix blame for an all-too-common teenage malady on the presumedly subpar behaviors by said pizza-face.

I can’t stop thinking about that scene (and the slow-burning resentment it provoked), when observing the way that so many people continue to respond to positive cases of COVID-19.

“Letlow’s death is tragic,” Vox journalist Aaron Rupar tweeted late Tuesday, in response to the news that Rep.-elect Luke Letlow (R–La.) had perished at age 41 after contracting COVID-19. “It was also avoidable. It shouldn’t take tragedies for policymakers to treat the coronavirus pandemic with the seriousness it deserves.”

The evidence Rupar provided for Letlow’s alleged unseriousness was his October comment that “while we’ve been cautious and I think both the state and federal level have taken numerous precautions for COVID-19, we’re now at a place if we do not open our economy we’re in real danger.” Follow-up sleuthing produced pictures of the politician interacting with human beings without wearing a mask. Look, sometimes the skirt is too short, mmkay?

As National Review‘s Kyle Smith pointed out, “In no other health circumstance would such brutality toward the afflicted be tolerated. We do not deem individuals who become sick by engaging in known ‘risky behaviors’—unsafe sex, abuse of alcohol, drug use, poor diet, smoking, dangerous driving—as deserving of pain and misery….[M]ocking and haranguing those who become sick or die due to COVID-19, a novel virus from which we cannot possibly shield ourselves entirely, is unconscionable.”

There is an all-too-familiar gracelessness in politicized conversations about the coronavirus. It’s not enough to merely disagree with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ approach to COVID; you have to accuse him of “putting politics in front of lives.” (For an eye-opening comparison between the disparate media treatment of DeSantis and New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, check out this Twitter thread.) In the other direction, some anti-lockdown politicians and commentators routinely accuse Democratic mayors and governors of consciously preferencing “power and control” over public safety.

As with far too many public policy disputes (over climate change, criminal justice, health care, etc.), it is not enough to merely observe that the opposing team has different ideas about how best to address a problem. No, the bad guys are either intentionally trying to make things worse or just too blinkered to admit there’s a problem in the first place. The more partisan you are, the more likely you feel surrounded by murderers and denialists.

Rutgers professors Jacob Hale Russell and Dennis Patterson argue in a recent essay for the medical-science website Stat that there is, in fact, “no epidemic of pandemic denial”:

Americans overwhelmingly aren’t in denial: They believe the threat of Covid-19 is real, they are reasonably good at identifying medical misinformation, and they are largely complying with public health recommendations. Compared to their peers in Europe, Americans are more willing to get vaccinated against Covid-19, similarly likely to wear masks, and no more prone to believe common conspiracy theories about the pandemic’s origins.

The U.S.’s response to Covid-19 has been bungled in many respects, but widespread public denial doesn’t explain why.

Insisting on such mass delusion, Russell and Patterson maintain, comes at a cost: “It’s corrosive for at least three reasons. First, it needlessly alienates the interested public with false accusations. Second, by conflating reasonable dissent with unreasonable misinformation, it stifles debate, even about issues that genuinely warrant discussion. Third, the myth of denial deflects blame from the policy failures of politicians, who use it to claim they’ve done all they could, leaving only the denialists (and cheesecake eaters) to blame.”

The impulse to turn COVID policy into a political morality play, observable on a daily basis in allegedly straight news outlets, has the perverse effect of focusing attention on government choices that are comparatively trivial in impact. Putting a villainous face on either a lockdown or a reopening apparently provides more of an adrenaline jolt than the boring yet absolutely vital stuff of de-clogging bureaucratic backlogs at the Food and Drug Administration.

Paradoxically, those most likely to wield blame against individuals and regions suffering from coronavirus tend to be far more sure in their judgments—and reliant on the mantra follow the science—than the people who spend their days actually compiling the messy data about this deadly virus. The anonymous author of the Marginally Compelling newsletter, which painstakingly assembles COVID research by region, had an interesting Twitter thread Thursday in response to the aforementioned DeSantis/Cuomo comparison.

“I’m fascinated with how wedded the press continues to be to the idea that COVID numbers MUST be driven by policy decisions,” he wrote. “They constantly say that numbers are rising in red states DUE TO those states not taking it seriously[.] Let me be as frank as I can here: There is no solid evidence that state policy choices protect a region from a COVID surge[.] None[.] To the degree that they can be controlled (which is not very high, but does seem to exist) the most impactful variable seems to be social patterns.” And those “are not controllable by the government.”

He continued: “Yet the press continues to *demand* that COVID numbers are a direct result of state policy…but only when it fits the insanely crude rubric of ‘red is bad, blue is good’. They are proffering an absolute fiction as if it was obviously true. And the insane thing (to me) is their confidence in this. They clearly believe this to be true when it is *obviously* untrue to anyone who has tried to weigh this idea against the data. They *clearly* have no idea what they are talking about but the speak as if they are experts.”

Another, more influential COVID data-gatherer, economist Emily Oster, warned this week that the coronavirus blame game might tangibly suppress the prevalence of testing:

Whether we recognize it or not, there is a lot of shaming people for getting COVID, and a lot of shaming of any location known to be a place where COVID was spread. The goal of this type of shaming seems to be to encourage better behavior—do well, and you wont get COVID and be shamed.

There is an element of truth here. Clearly, there are more and less safe ways to behave and more and less safe ways to run your business/school/long term care facility/etc. But there is also a huge element of chance.

COVID is a contagious disease. You can get it even if you do everything “right”. And you might not get it even if you do things which are really unsafe. It’s possible for a restaurant to take all the right precautions to lower the COVID risk and still have a transmission occur; similarly, they can do nothing and avoid it.

There is a fine line between discouraging risky behavior and shaming people who get COVID-19. And when we cross the line to shaming, it’s not likely to be productive.

For one thing, shaming people is not usually an effective way to get them to do things. For another, in this case shaming discourages testing. Imagine you come upon a pop-up testing site in the mall while shopping for pants. No line! Public health is served by your testing. In the unlikely event you do have COVID, we want to know. You can isolate at home and take the virus out of circulation, possibly avoiding passing it to the cashier at Old Navy.

We want people to test. But if they know they’ll be shamed if they do have it, they’re going to be a lot less likely to do so.

Look, I get it: 2020 has sucked. Emotions are raw. Morgues are full. I am infuriated on a daily basis by the policy choices made by politicians around me. It’s OK to be mad, and sad.

But it’s also OK—more than just OK, human, necessary—to extend condition-free sympathy and kindness to those who get sick. To admit, even happily, that there are limits to our knowledge, that we will likely be wrong, that pandemic policymaking is devilishly hard.

“While one may glean fleeting satisfaction by blaming others for the pain and uncertainty we’re all experiencing, the scars from the scolds will persist long after the pandemic is blessedly behind us,” Kyle Smith wrote. “Instead, we should all try to be kinder and more gracious toward each other. Most people are doing the absolute best they can, often making incredibly tough decisions amid extraordinarily difficult circumstances. Nearly everyone knows the coronavirus is a threat they must take seriously. No one wants people to get sick and die, and it’s time to stop acting as if they do.”

Or as Oster said more pithily, “So for 2021, a resolution, a hope: More tests. Less shame. Less COVID.”

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2020 Greatest Hits: The Most Popular Articles Of The Past Year And A Look Ahead

2020 Greatest Hits: The Most Popular Articles Of The Past Year And A Look Ahead

One year ago, when looking at the 20 most popular stories of 2019, we pointed to a certain undertone of artificial stability permeating capital markets and society, with the economy firing on all cylinders (thanks to the massive dual deficits and debt that had exploded under the current administration), with the market surging 30% last year and at all time highs (despite flat earnings and entirely thanks to the Fed’s resumption of “NOT QE” last September in order to bail out JPMorgan and a handful of hedge funds’ treasury basis trades), and with Trump cruising to re-election victory in what we thought one year ago would be the most important even of 2020: the US presidential election. It’s also why we said that “with the Fed fully behind Trump and helping the S&P return nearly 30% in 2019, 4 more years of Trump is now virtually assured (barring some unexpected calamity in 2020).”

Oh how prudent that disclaimer proved to be, as well as this next caveat we casually mentioned in our last year review, warning that “with the 2020 elections looming, it is certainly true that anything can still happen, only as with all true “black swans”, it won’t be what anyone had expected.”

It certainly wasn’t because around the time we were penning our year-end wrap post exactly one year ago, a highly contagious coronavirus strain had escaped the Wuhan Institute of Virology (China’s first and only biosafety 4 lab) whether purposefully or intentionally, and was set to spread around the globe, unleashing the biggest global black swan in the past 100 years, triggering personal and economic hell for hundreds of millions around the world who lost their jobs or loved ones as a result of the China virus, markets nirvana for millions of 16-year-old Robinhood and hedge funds traders who benefited from the greatest stock market rally in history, and ultimately helped Joe Biden emerge from complete obscurity and with virtually no chances of defeating Trump, to eventually winning the Nov 3 presidential election, Trump’s ongoing challenges to the outcome notwithstanding.

The arrival of the virus that would eventually be called Covid-19 by the global scientific community (to remove any links to China) – and which would lead to a historic pandemic the likes of which nobody expected one year ago – shook the world, and would lead to a slew of historic events taking place in just a few months, including a staggering lockdown of the global economy, the official arrival of global Helicopter Money, tens of trillions in fiscal and monetary stimulus, an overhaul of the global economy punctuated by an unprecedented explosion in world debt, an Orwellian crackdown on civil liberties by governments everywhere, and ultimately set the scene for what even the World Economic Forum called simply “The Great Reset.”

Needless to say, it would be impossible to describe everything that happened in 2020, or all the black swans that the pandemic and its associated lockdowns let loose upon the world, in one article: those looking for a detailed breakdown of all the major events this year are urged to read the latest magnum opus “Year in Review” by David Collum (part 1 here and part 2 here), but a quick recap of some of the most prominent and bizarre events that shook the world in the past 365 days, what Mark Orsley called “the year of years“, is as follows:

  • WW3 fears run rampant on social media as the US strikes Iranian army general Soleimani
  • Black swan health event that leads to a historic equity market crash, and funding strains
  • Fed takes US policy rates to near 0% and institutes QE at a magnitude that puts the post GFC period to shame
  • Treasury institutes trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus
  • Unprecedented lockdowns lead to Tiger King craze
  • The world learns how to school and work remotely, changing the office space landscape forever
  • WTI front month contract trades with a negative price
  • Subsequent epic equity bull market recovery rally that pierces March highs
  • Australia burns
  • Kobe Bryant tragically dies
  • We begin to watch sports with no fans
  • Pentagon releases UFO footage
  • Quantas offers flight to nowhere
  • California wildfires burn uncontrollably and wipe out parts of Napa
  • US social unrest turns violent
  • Murder hornets
  • Ruth Bader Ginsberg dies
  • Overhyped US election event that leads to a volatility collapse, year-end rally
  • A middle-aged skateboarder, drinking Cranberry juice to a 70s rock hit brings calm to the world

That list could have gone on forever. The point is, there could not have been more regime shifts, volatility moments, and memes than 2020 (we hope).

Yet for all the chaos and panic unleashed by covid, a certain undertone of pre-determination and almost tangible order was felt just below the surface: after all, the virus, crash, lockdown and recession provoked an unprecedented monetary and fiscal policy panic which sparked a record $22 trillion of stimulus in just the past 9 months around the world. As a result, central banks spent over $1 trillion a month on financial assets via QE, crushing yields, volatility, and spreads, and pushing stocks to all time highs at the end of 2020 even as earnings continue to slide.

It’s almost as if the world’s richest asset owners requested the covid pandemic. It wasn’t just them however: politicians the world over would benefit from the transition from QE to outright helicopter money and MMT which made the over monetization of deficits widely accepted in the blink of an eye. And in the span of just a few months, $14 trillion in fiscal stimulus was announced, with central banks monetizing most of it, and pushing the quantity of global debt to a record $277 trillion, a number which the Institute For International Finance expects to hit a record $360 trillion by 2030

… while thanks to central bank intervention, the price of world debt dropped to a record 5,000 year low, with global negative yielding debt now at an all time high $18tn.

The common theme here was simple: no matter what happens, capital markets can never again be allowed to drop, regardless of the cost or how much more debt has to be incurred. Indeed, as we look back at the news barrage over the past year, and past decade for that matter, the one thing that becomes especially clear amid the constant din of markets, of politics, of social upheaval and geopolitical strife – and now pandemics –  in fact a world that is so flooded with constant conflicting newsflow and changing storylines that some say it has become virtually impossible to even try to predict the future, is that despite the people’s desire for change, for something original and untried, the world’s established forces will not allow it and will fight to preserve the broken status quo at any price – even global coordinated shutdowns – which is perhaps why it always boils down to one thing – capital markets, that bedrock of Western capitalism and the “modern way of life”, where control, even if it means central planning the likes of which have not been seen since the days of the USSR, and an upward trajectory must be preserved at all costs, as the alternative is a global, socio-economic collapse.

And since it is the daily gyrations of stocks that sway popular moods – and why none other than the US president was tweeting almost daily ahead of the November election at what level the S&P closed on any given day to boost his approval rating and bolster his credibility – the interplay between capital markets and politics has never been more profound or more consequential. Indeed, in a historic moment when the president was impeached by the House (if not the Senate), Trump’s natural response was to point to the record high hit that very day in the S&P500.

The more powerful message here is the implicit realization and admission by politicians, not just Trump but also his peers and challengers, that the stock market is now seen as the consummate barometer of one’s political achievements and approval. Which is also why capital markets are now, more than ever, a political tool whose purpose is no longer to distribute capital efficiently and discount the future, but to manipulate voter sentiments far more efficiently than any Russian election interference attempt ever could.

Which brings us back to 2020 and the past decade, which was best summarized by a recent Bill Blain article who said that “the last 10-years has been a story of massive central banking distortion to address the 2008 crisis. Now central banks face the consequences and are trapped. The distortion can’t go uncorrected indefinitely.

He is right: the distortion will eventually collapse, but so far the establishment and the “top 1%” have been successful – perhaps the correct word is lucky – in preserving the value of risk assets: on the back of the Fed’s firehose of liquidity the S&P500 returned an impressive 15.5% following the 28.50% return in 2019. It did so by staging the greatest rally off all time from the March lows, surpassing all of the 4 greatest rallies off the lows of the past century (1929,1938, 1974, and 2009).

Yet this continued can-kicking by the establishment – all of which was made possible by the covid pandemic and lockdowns which served as an all too convenient scapegoat for the unprecedented response that served to propel risk assets (and fiat alternatives such as gold and bitcoin) to all time highs – has come with a price… and an increasingly higher price in fact. As even Bank of America CIO Michael Hartnett admits, Fed’s response to the the pandemic “worsened inequality in 2020” as the value of financial assets – Wall Street –  relative to economy – Main Street – hit all-time high of 6.3x.

And as we said previously, with the system now caught in a vice operated by a handful of people, there is no longer any chance that the status quo will change without a revolution, a revolution which is increasingly unlikely in a world where “generous” governments hand out $600 “stimulus checks” to a population that has no other means of providing for itself besides relying on the same government that is pillaging and plundering the middle class.

In other words, going back to what we said above, 2020 helped further crystalize the realization that politics is now markets, and markets have become political weapons, and why the past decade was, as Bill Blain put it, “a story of massive central banking distortion to address the 2008 crisis.” The problem is that this distortion has only made the mess even greater, and the only hope central banks have – in their own words – is if government fiscal stimulus takes over where monetary stimulus ends, and this is where covid came in: almost overnight it ushered in MMT – the fusion of fiscal and monetary policy, the fusion of the Fed and the Treasury. In other words, 12 years after we predicted it would come, helicopter money finally arrived. 

Only there is just one problem, or rather 277 trillion problems as shown above, because whereas one could argue that fiscal stimulus is a credible option if the world’s wasn’t drowning in debt, when global debt to GDP is 330%, it is tantamount to saying that only more debt can fix a debt crisis. Which is effectively what the world’s smartest people are saying.

Meanwhile, the trends observed in recent years will continue: coming years will be marked by even bigger government (because only more government can “fix” problems created by government), higher stock prices and dollar debasement (because only more Fed intervention can “fix” the problems created by the Fed), and a policy flip from monetary and QE to fiscal & MMT, all of which will attempt to spark an unprecedented inflationary wave. As Hartnett writes, “if 2020 was year of COVID-19 pandemic; it will, according to Hartnett, “also be remembered as the secular low point for both inflation & interest rates.”

He is, of course, right because once all other conventional methods to spark reflation fail, central banks will activate Plan B which is also the core pillar of the coming Great Reset: the roll out of digital currencies which can be deposited by central banks directly into digital wallets, bypassing the entire commercial banking fractional banking infrastructure, in a last ditch effort to spark the inflation that will be needed to inflate away the $300+ trillion in debt suffocating world growth. For those wondering when this will happen, tentative schedules show this historic transfer to an all digital payments infrastructure taking place as early as the second half of 2021…

… so it is very likely that while 2020 was an insane year, it may prove to be just an appetizer to the shockwaves that will be unleashed in 2021 when we see the first stage of the most historic overhaul of the fiat payment system in history.

Here we should note one thing: in a world undergoing historic transformations, any free press must be throttled and controlled, and over the past year we have seen unprecedented efforts by legacy media and its corporate owners, as well as the new “social media” overlords do everything in their power to stifle independent thought. For us it was especially “personal” on not one but two occasions. In January, Twitter suspended our account because we dared to challenge the conventional narrative about the source of the Wuhan virus. It was only six months later that Twitter apologized, and set us free, admitting it had made a mistake.

Yet barely had twitter readmitted us, when something even more unprecedented happened: for the first time ever (to our knowledge) Google – the world’s largest online ad provider and monopoly – demonetized our website not because of any complaints about our writing but because of the contents of our comment section. It then held us hostage until we agreed to implement some prerequisite screening and moderation of the comments section. This was a stark lesson in how quickly an ad-funded business can disintegrate in this world which resembles the dystopia of 1984 more and more each day, and we have since taken measures. In December for the first time in our 12 year history, we launched a paid version of our website, which is entirely ad and moderation free, and offers readers a variety of premium content. It wasn’t our intention to make this transformation but unfortunately we know which way the wind is blowing and it is only a matter of time before the gatekeepers of online ad spending block us again. As such, if we are to have any hope in continuing it will come directly from you, our readers. We will keep the free website running for as long as possible, but we are certain that it is only a matter of time before the hammer falls as the censorship bandwagon rolls out much more aggressively in the coming year.

That said, whether the story of 2021, and the next decade for that matter, is one of helicopter or digital money, of (hyper)inflation or deflation: what is key, and what we learned in the past decade, is that the status quo will throw anything at the problem to kick the can, it will certainly not let any crisis go to waste… even the deadliest pandemic in over a century. And while many already knew that, the events of 2020 made it clear to a fault that not even a modest market correction can be tolerated going forward. That in turn may explain why the last quarters of 2020 were a mirror image of events from the first quarter when stocks tanked. After all, if central banks aim to punish all selling, then the logical outcome is to buy everything, and investors, traders and speculators did just that armed with the clearest backstop guarantee from the Fed, which in March crossed the Rubicon when it formally nationalized the bond market as it started buying both investment grade bonds and junk bond ETFs in the open market. As such it is no longer even a debatable issue if the Fed will buy stocks after the next crash – the only question is when.

Meanwhile, for all those lamenting the relentless coverage of politics in a financial blog, why finance appears to have taken a secondary role, and why the political “narrative” has taken a dominant role for financial analysts, the past year showed vividly why that is the case.

As for predictions about the future, as 2020 so vividly showed when it comes to true surprises and all true “black swans”, it won’t be what anyone had expected. And so while many themes, both in the political and financial realm, did get some accelerated closure courtesy of China’s covid pandemic, dramatic changes in 2020 persisted, and will continue to manifest themselves in often violent and unexpected ways – from the ongoing record polarization in the US political arena, to “populist” upheavals around the developed world, to the gradual transition to a global Universal Basic (i.e., socialized) Income regime, to China’s ongoing fight with preserving stability in its gargantuan financial system which is now more than double the size of the US.

As always, we thank all of our readers for making this website – which has never seen one dollar of outside funding (and despite amusing recurring allegations, has certainly never seen a ruble from the KGB either, although now that the entire Russian hysteria episode is over, those allegations have finally quieted down), and has never spent one dollar on marketing – a small (or not so small) part of your daily routine.

Which also brings us to another critical topic: that of fake news, and something we – and others who do not comply with the established narrative – have been accused of. While we find the narrative of fake news laughable, after all every single article in this website is backed by facts and links to outside sources, we find it a dangerous development, and a very slippery slope that the entire developed world – is pushing for what is, when stripped of fancy jargon, internet censorship under the guise of protecting the average person from “dangerous, fake information.” It’s also why we are preparing for the next onslaught against independent thought and why we had no choice but to roll out a premium version of this website.

In addition to the other themes noted above, we expect the crackdown on free speech to accelerate in the coming year, especially as the following list of Top 20 articles for 2020 reveals, many of the most popular articles in the past year were precisely those which the conventional media would not touch out of fear of repercussions, which in turn allowed the alternative media to continue to flourish in an orchestrated information vacuum and take significant market share from the established outlets by covering topics which the public relations arm of established media outlets refused to do, in the process earning itself the derogatory “fake news” condemnation.

We are grateful that our readers – who hit a new record high in 2020 – have realized it is incumbent upon them to decide what is, and isn’t “fake news.”

*  *  *

And so, before we get into the details of what has now become an annual tradition for the last day of the year, those who wish to jog down memory lane, can refresh our most popular articles for every year during our no longer that brief, almost 11-year existence, starting with 2009 and continuing with 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019.

So without further ado, here are the articles that you, our readers, found to be the most engaging, interesting and popular based on the number of hits, during the past year.

  • In 20th spot with 690,000 readers, was an article that touched on one of the most sensitive topics of 2020 – the origins of the Covid virus. As readers are all too aware, the great debate here has been whether the virus emerged due to something as innocuous as a Chinese citizen eating a bat soup, a narrative espoused by the China-controlled media, or if it escaped from a Wuhan biolab. And as AP journalists are now discovering, all signs increasingly point to the latter, something which Luc Montagnier the man who discovered the HIV virus back in 1983 first said back in April, shocking the world with his claim that the virus was man made as we explained in “COVID-19 Is A Man-Made Virus: HIV-Discoverer Says “Could Only Have Been Created In A Lab“.” Eventually he will be proven correct, confirming once again that the biggest “fake news” is whatever the mainsteam media pushes as the narrative du jour.
  • In 19th spot of the year’s most popular articles, we received another reminder that not all is as it seems when it comes to stoking tensions within US society, as 718,000 readers clicked on a story pointing out that “More Bricks Appear In Advance Of Monday Demonstrations In Baltimore, Texas.” While a wave of protests and violent riots swept across the nation, ostensibly as a grassroot movement condemning police violence against blacks, it had dramatic consequences across the country, leading to the defunding of countless police forces across mostly liberal cities and yet many wondered about who the puppetmaster behind this wave of violence was, because as even Jeff Gundlach mused recently, “It’s Interesting How The Violent Riots Of 2020 Ended Right After The Election.” Hopefully, one day someone will get to the bottom of who and how organized the protest deadly movement of the summer of 2020.
  • In 18th spot, addressing what may be the most critical topic of the next four years, nearly 720,000 readers were presented with a “Blockbuster Report” which in impressive detail “Revealed How THE Biden Family Was Compromised By China.” As a reminder, when news reports of Hunter Biden’s relationship with China first emerged, the social networks were quick to censor any mention of the original report. However, just a few weeks later (and certainly after the election) we learned that Hunter was indeed being probed by tax evasion stemming from his shady Chinese deals which sought just one thing: to buy favor with the family of Joe Biden. Of course, it won’t be the first time foreign powers have sought such undue influence on US politicians – after all that’s what the whole point behind the existence of the Clinton foundation, which did nothing for starving African children or Haiti earthquake survivors, but sure made Bill and Hillary filthy rich.
  • Pivoting from China’s attempts to influence the White House, we once again find ourselves in the middle of the social unrest which defined much of the summer of 2020. Only this time there was a twist: 726,000 readers were fascinated how an “Antifa Attempt To Riot In California Suburb Goes Awry” when a group of Antifa ‘protesters’ were met with instant justice at the hands of angry residents in the suburban town of Yucaipa, California. Unfortunately, we expect this violent left-right split across the heart of America to only get worse in 2021 as none of the fundamental reasons for the growing anger and resentment across US society has been addressed yet, and if anything, it has become the media’s duty to stoke even more anger and hatred.
  • Confirming the scientists at best can only make(un)educated guesses about the future (especially if they have paid conflicts of interest) was an analysis from the early spring when the covid pandemic was first sweeping across the country, and which “found” that “All Hospital Beds In The US Will Be Filled With Patients ‘By About May 8th’ Due To Coronavirus.” This article, which was based on official research and was the 16th most read of 2020, with some 764,000 views, merely showcased something that never happened, and in fact the virus rapidly faded away as soon as various containment measures were rolled out. But not before it demonstrated how the media successfully instills a sense of panic amid the population, which continues to this day even as the most apocalyptic predictions postulated by “scientists” never actually came true.
  • By now a clear pattern is emerging: 2020 was without doubt the year of Covid, and it also served as the foundation of the 15th most popular article of 2020, which discussed a “Chilling Documentary Mapping Out Likely Origin Of COVID-19.” Some 767,000 readers got their first glimpse of covid not as a virus that emerged by accident in nature but one that was created in a Chinese lab; more troubling was the hint that China released the virus on purpose in hopes of overturning the socio-economic status quo. While the jury of “scientists” is still out on the real origins of covid (even if the broader public knows all too well where it came from), one thing is certain: the unprecedented transformations sparked by covid left China as one of the biggest geopolitical winners. If nothing else, this should at least prompt some more questions about who stood to benefit from the release of the virus.
  • Covid continued to dominate the most popular list, and the 14th most read article of 2020 with 820,000 views was the report that triggered the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression when on March 12, Trump finally bent under pressure and announced a ban on all travel from Europe, in the process triggering both widespread and targeted shutdowns that have lasted to this day, resulting in millions of job losses and countless small and medium business failing in response to the shotgun approach to deal with the pandemic which while crippling most of the population, made a handful of ultra rich investors and mega corporations extremely rich.
  • The 13th most popular article of 2020 touched on the year’s other biggest event, the US presidential election, and whose outcome Trump contests to this day as a result of countless allegedly fraudulent votes being cast on Nov 3. Some 830,000 readers were interested to learn how and why Trump’s then lawyer Sidney Powell intended to “Overturn Election Results In Multiple States.” So far, that has not happened, and in fact it is unlikely that it will after the Supreme Court refused to hear to Trump’s challenge last month. That said, with 3 weeks to go until the inauguration, Trump still refuses to concede although it remains unclear on what grounds he hopes to launch any upcoming legal challenges, even as Joe Biden has already hired his movers in preparation for his transition to the White House.
  • For the 12th most popular article of the past year, we once again shift back to Covid and specifically China’s massive obfuscation campaign, according to which the country which sparked the global covid pandemic has had less than 100,000 cases, even as the rest of world has arounf 500,000 new cases daily. Beijing’s facade of lies almost cracked in February when as asked whether “China’s Tencent Accidentally Leaked The True Terrifying Coronavirus Statistics.” It did, but since the truth in China has a halflife that is shorter than a virus in the wild, everyone quickly moved on and to this day the world continues to drink some bizarre Kool Aid according to which China has just a handful of new cases daily. 
  • The 11th most popular article of the year was something different: it had to do with what may well have been the most underreported story of 2020 (and 2019) – the crimes of Jeffrey Epstein and his powerful, rich pedophile friends. Of course, most of Epstein’s secrets died with him when he “committed suicide” in the summer of 2019, although some hope for justice remains and it is tied to the ongoing incarceration of Epstein’s madame and girlfriend, Ghislaine Maxwell, who knew everything and everyone in Jeffrey’s circle. It’s also why 835,000 read the article laying out “The Top Highlights From Ghislaine Maxwell’s Unsealed Court Records.” Unfortunately, so far Ghislain has refused to shine a light into the true scandal surrounding Epstein and his “friends”, and we are confident that if that were to ever change then the daughter of Robert Maxwell – who died in mysterious circumstances back in 1991 – will face a similar fate.
  • With 864,000 page views, the 10th most popular story of 2020 was neither Covid, nor Trump, nor Epstein-related, but instead exposed China’s giant gold counterfeiting underworld as we explained in “83 Tons Of Fake Gold Bars: Gold Market Rocked By Massive China Counterfeiting Scandal.” Over the years there has been much speculation about just how much of the $11 trillion notional in above-ground gold is legitimate, and how much gold-plated tungsten, and the shocking news that emerged out of China in June underscored that one should always check the authenticity of one’s gold holdings, especially if there is any link to China, the country that has taken counterfeiting to an art.
  • Having entered the top 10 most popular stories of 2020, we find that covid makes another appearance in 9th spot with 915,000 reads, this time with the claim made by a top pathologist, Dr. Roger Hodkinson, who made the shocking allegation that the coronavirus Is “The Greatest Hoax Ever Perpetrated On An Unsuspecting Public” and claimed that “There is utterly unfounded public hysteria driven by the media and politicians, it’s outrageous, this is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on an unsuspecting public.” One can easily see why any reference to the story or the doctor was promptly scrubbed by the world’s social media censors who have taken it upon themselves to also be “fact-checkers” on any claim related to covid, even if as we reported previously, most of those ‘fact-checkers’ are deeply conflicted individuals who have a vested interest in perpetuating the far more lucrative, fake narrative about covid.
  • In 8th spot, with just a few hundred more page views, was our report about the scientific analysis conducted on voting patterns in the Nov 3 election. In “It Defies Logic”: Scientist Finds Telltale Signs Of Election Fraud After Analyzing Mail-In Ballot Data” we showed a statistical anslysis “which strongly suggested that fraud occurred” on election night, when several swing states inexplicably stopped reporting vote counts while President Trump maintained a healthy lead over Joe Biden. To this date, this remains a deeply polarizing issue, and even though the courts – including SCOTUS – have refused to investigate further, millions of Americans believe that there are telltale signs that Biden’s victory on Nov 3 was not proper and is why so many Americans refuse to accept Joe Biden as their president.
  • With just over 1.1 million page views and in 7th spot, was the article that got us suspended (for 6 months) from Twitter: in “Is This The Man Behind The Global Coronavirus Pandemic?” we asked if Wuhan Institute of Virology scientist Peng Zhou (whose data was available publicly to anyone), was the person responsible for unleashing the pandemic. While Twitter unceremoniuosly banned our account for merely asking this question, a few months later the joke was on Jack Dorsey after we reported that “Western Spy Agencies Investigating Wuhan Scientist Highlighted By Zero Hedge In January.” Of course, since the question of China’s involvement in the creation and spread of the covid virus has tremendous political consequences, so far there has been no official finding or conclusion either way.
  • The 6th most popular article of 2020 was another notable question probing the validity of the November election, namely: “Why Does Biden Have So Many More Votes Than Democrat Senators In Swing States?” Another way of asking the same question – which 1,113,129 readers also wanted answered – was “what’s going on here? If it were “never-Trumpers” pairing Biden with their GOP Congressional picks, wouldn’t one expect fewer votes for Trump than GOP Senators?” So far we have not received an answer.
  • Questions about the credibility of the presidential election continued into the Top 5 posts as well, and with 1,245,000 was out post covering the rollercoaster event which was the Nov 3 election, which had Biden winning at first, then odds overwhelmingly shifted in Trump’s favor after he won Florida and Ohio, only to see Biden be declared winner after mail in votes in most swing states came overwhelmingly in Biden’s favor. Not surprisingly, “Trump Blasts Vote-Count Delays As “Fraud On The American Public” and yet it was precisely those same vote counts, as well as various documented reports of mystery ballot boxes emerging in the deep of the night, that ultimately handed Biden the election. Trump is still contesting the outcome.
  • The devastating consequences from the covid pandemic may have been more limited than many expected, largely thanks to an unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus, which made life especially easy for companies that had access to capital markets, however it was quite the opposite for millions of small and medium businesses for whom the PPP loans handed out at the peak of the covid crisis provided at best a brief respite. As a result, and as we reported in “Bankruptcy Tsunami Begins: Thousands Of Default Notices Are “Flying Out The Door“,”  well over 1.2 million readers were shocked to learn just how bad the economy was for all those “mom and pop” small business operators who had no choice but to fold as the lockdowns resulting from the covid pandemic crippled the service economy and led to a historic bankruptcy filing spree.
  • The 3rd most popular article of 2020, read over 1.3 million times, had to do with another topic which the mainstream media would not come within 10 feet of, namely whether or not the highly popular Black Lives Matter movement was credible, or if it was just another way of sabotaging the popular narrative in hopes of benefiting a certain social class. One person who took the other side of the argument was an Anonymous Berkeley Professor who “Shredded the BLM Injustice Narrative” only to be met with a furious rebuke from Berkeley, which ironically validated one of the letter’s core claims that dissent outside “a tightly policed, narrow discourse” is not welcome. Sadly, to this day any truly open discourse on the topic of whether BLM’s claims are valid remains taboo, and is the surest and quickest way to ending one’s career.
  • The year’s second most popular article with just over 1.5 million reads, was also an example of conventional media cracking down on anything it found disagreeable to the popular narrative. Shortly after the first reports of covid’s spread, we published our take on a research report which found that “Coronavirus Contains “HIV Insertions”, Stoking Fears Over Artificially Created Bioweapon.” This prompted an immediate panic among the “factcheckers” whose job was to perpetuate the mainstream narrative, and they promptly conceded that while HIV insertions are present, such insertions can also be found in other viruses. Unfortunately, their attempts to discredit the theory that covid was a manmade bioweapon have so far failed to be scientifically validated, while covid’s surprising ability to mutate and force the immune system to attack the host body itself, which are now widely accepted even by the so-called “scientists” have failed to ease concerns that covid is, in many ways, an airborne version of HIV.
  • Finally, in the top #1 spot, and cementing 2020’s status as the year of covid, was an article from March that tried to take on the mass hysteria spread by everyone from (conflicted) politicians to (conflicted) mainsteadm media to (conflicted) pharma companies, all of which had a vested interest in creating the biggest ever crisis possible. With 1.7 million page views, in “COVID-19 – Evidence Over Hysteria” we laid out one take why the widespread panic resulting from covid may be ultimately self-defeating especially when juxtaposed side by the side with the far greater (and far wider reaching) economic damage sparked by lockdowns. Alas, to this day, the hysteria dominates confirming the old saying to let no crisis go to waste, especially when the crisis in question is the biggest one in generations and allows the establishment to rollout socially and economically transformational changes that would never be possible without the scapegoat that is covid.

With all that behind us, and as we wave goodbye to another bizarre, exciting, surreal year, what lies in store for 2021, and the next decade?

We don’t know: as frequent and not so frequent readers are aware, we do not pretend to be able to predict the future and we don’t try despite endless allegations that we constantly predict the collapse of civilization: we leave the predicting to the “smartest people in the room” who year after year have been consistently wrong about everything, and never more so than in 2020, which destroyed the reputation of central banks, of economists, of conventional media and the professional “polling” and “strategist” class forever. We merely observe, try to find what is unexpected, entertaining, amusing, surprising or grotesque in an increasingly bizarre, sad, and increasingly crazy world, and then just write about it.

We do know, however, that after a record $22 trillion in stimulus was been conjured out of thin air by the world’s central banks and politicians in just the past 9 months, as helicopter money makes a triumphal arrival in both the US and Eurozone, and as interest rates are on the cusp of breaking out, the entire world is floating on an ocean of excess money, which in 2020 once again succeeded in masking just how ugly the truth beneath the calm surface is.

We are confident, however, that in the end it will be the very final backstoppers of the status quo regime, the central banking emperors of the New Normal, who will eventually be revealed as fully naked. When that happens and what happens after is anyone’s guess. But, as we have promised – and delivered – every year for the past 12, we will be there to document every aspect of it.

Finally, and as always, we wish all our readers the best of luck in 2021, with much success in trading and every other avenue of life. We bid farewell to 2020 with our traditional and unwavering year-end promise: Zero Hedge will be there each and every day – usually with a cynical smile – helping readers expose, unravel and comprehend the fallacy, fiction, fraud and farce that the system is reduced to (ab)using each and every day just to keep this grand tragicomedy going for at least one more year.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/31/2020 – 17:10

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/380yuN9 Tyler Durden

Victim-Blaming During a Pandemic Doesn’t Make People Safer

LukeLetlow

I don’t remember what grade I was in—maybe late 10th or early 11th?—but I can recall with photorealistic clarity the time my Dad came into my bedroom (a rare enough occurrence) to listen to me bitch and moan about having persistent enough acne that I was desperate to try a frightfully powerful skin-sucking drug called Accutane.

“Well,” he said, shaking his head with a sympathetic but judgmental wince. “You really gotta lay off those chocolates.”

Research into the folkloric zit/candy connection was as inconclusive in the mid-1980s as it is in 2020. But the most relevant contemporaneous detail was that I didn’t freaking eat chocolates, aside from the odd In-N-Out milkshake. Bad enough that a parent doesn’t know his kid’s preferences; considerably worse to affix blame for an all-too-common teenage malady on the presumedly subpar behaviors by said pizza-face.

I can’t stop thinking about that scene (and the slow-burning resentment it provoked), when observing the way that so many people continue to respond to positive cases of COVID-19.

“Letlow’s death is tragic,” Vox journalist Aaron Rupar tweeted late Tuesday, in response to the news that Rep.-elect Luke Letlow (R–La.) had perished at age 41 after contracting COVID-19. “It was also avoidable. It shouldn’t take tragedies for policymakers to treat the coronavirus pandemic with the seriousness it deserves.”

The evidence Rupar provided for Letlow’s alleged unseriousness was his October comment that “while we’ve been cautious and I think both the state and federal level have taken numerous precautions for COVID-19, we’re now at a place if we do not open our economy we’re in real danger.” Follow-up sleuthing produced pictures of the politician interacting with human beings without wearing a mask. Look, sometimes the skirt is too short, mmkay?

As National Review‘s Kyle Smith pointed out, “In no other health circumstance would such brutality toward the afflicted be tolerated. We do not deem individuals who become sick by engaging in known ‘risky behaviors’—unsafe sex, abuse of alcohol, drug use, poor diet, smoking, dangerous driving—as deserving of pain and misery….[M]ocking and haranguing those who become sick or die due to COVID-19, a novel virus from which we cannot possibly shield ourselves entirely, is unconscionable.”

There is an all-too-familiar gracelessness in politicized conversations about the coronavirus. It’s not enough to merely disagree with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ approach to COVID; you have to accuse him of “putting politics in front of lives.” (For an eye-opening comparison between the disparate media treatment of DeSantis and New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, check out this Twitter thread.) In the other direction, some anti-lockdown politicians and commentators routinely accuse Democratic mayors and governors of consciously preferencing “power and control” over public safety.

As with far too many public policy disputes (over climate change, criminal justice, health care, etc.), it is not enough to merely observe that the opposing team has different ideas about how best to address a problem. No, the bad guys are either intentionally trying to make things worse or just too blinkered to admit there’s a problem in the first place. The more partisan you are, the more likely you feel surrounded by murderers and denialists.

Rutgers professors Jacob Hale Russell and Dennis Patterson argue in a recent essay for the medical-science website Stat that there is, in fact, “no epidemic of pandemic denial”:

Americans overwhelmingly aren’t in denial: They believe the threat of Covid-19 is real, they are reasonably good at identifying medical misinformation, and they are largely complying with public health recommendations. Compared to their peers in Europe, Americans are more willing to get vaccinated against Covid-19, similarly likely to wear masks, and no more prone to believe common conspiracy theories about the pandemic’s origins.

The U.S.’s response to Covid-19 has been bungled in many respects, but widespread public denial doesn’t explain why.

Insisting on such mass delusion, Russell and Patterson maintain, comes at a cost: “It’s corrosive for at least three reasons. First, it needlessly alienates the interested public with false accusations. Second, by conflating reasonable dissent with unreasonable misinformation, it stifles debate, even about issues that genuinely warrant discussion. Third, the myth of denial deflects blame from the policy failures of politicians, who use it to claim they’ve done all they could, leaving only the denialists (and cheesecake eaters) to blame.”

The impulse to turn COVID policy into a political morality play, observable on a daily basis in allegedly straight news outlets, has the perverse effect of focusing attention on government choices that are comparatively trivial in impact. Putting a villainous face on either a lockdown or a reopening apparently provides more of an adrenaline jolt than the boring yet absolutely vital stuff of de-clogging bureaucratic backlogs at the Food and Drug Administration.

Paradoxically, those most likely to wield blame against individuals and regions suffering from coronavirus tend to be far more sure in their judgments—and reliant on the mantra follow the science—than the people who spend their days actually compiling the messy data about this deadly virus. The anonymous author of the Marginally Compelling newsletter, which painstakingly assembles COVID research by region, had an interesting Twitter thread Thursday in response to the aforementioned DeSantis/Cuomo comparison.

“I’m fascinated with how wedded the press continues to be to the idea that COVID numbers MUST be driven by policy decisions,” he wrote. “They constantly say that numbers are rising in red states DUE TO those states not taking it seriously[.] Let me be as frank as I can here: There is no solid evidence that state policy choices protect a region from a COVID surge[.] None[.] To the degree that they can be controlled (which is not very high, but does seem to exist) the most impactful variable seems to be social patterns.” And those “are not controllable by the government.”

He continued: “Yet the press continues to *demand* that COVID numbers are a direct result of state policy…but only when it fits the insanely crude rubric of ‘red is bad, blue is good’. They are proffering an absolute fiction as if it was obviously true. And the insane thing (to me) is their confidence in this. They clearly believe this to be true when it is *obviously* untrue to anyone who has tried to weigh this idea against the data. They *clearly* have no idea what they are talking about but the speak as if they are experts.”

Another, more influential COVID data-gatherer, economist Emily Oster, warned this week that the coronavirus blame game might tangibly suppress the prevalence of testing:

Whether we recognize it or not, there is a lot of shaming people for getting COVID, and a lot of shaming of any location known to be a place where COVID was spread. The goal of this type of shaming seems to be to encourage better behavior—do well, and you wont get COVID and be shamed.

There is an element of truth here. Clearly, there are more and less safe ways to behave and more and less safe ways to run your business/school/long term care facility/etc. But there is also a huge element of chance.

COVID is a contagious disease. You can get it even if you do everything “right”. And you might not get it even if you do things which are really unsafe. It’s possible for a restaurant to take all the right precautions to lower the COVID risk and still have a transmission occur; similarly, they can do nothing and avoid it.

There is a fine line between discouraging risky behavior and shaming people who get COVID-19. And when we cross the line to shaming, it’s not likely to be productive.

For one thing, shaming people is not usually an effective way to get them to do things. For another, in this case shaming discourages testing. Imagine you come upon a pop-up testing site in the mall while shopping for pants. No line! Public health is served by your testing. In the unlikely event you do have COVID, we want to know. You can isolate at home and take the virus out of circulation, possibly avoiding passing it to the cashier at Old Navy.

We want people to test. But if they know they’ll be shamed if they do have it, they’re going to be a lot less likely to do so.

Look, I get it: 2020 has sucked. Emotions are raw. Morgues are full. I am infuriated on a daily basis by the policy choices made by politicians around me. It’s OK to be mad, and sad.

But it’s also OK—more than just OK, human, necessary—to extend condition-free sympathy and kindness to those who get sick. To admit, even happily, that there are limits to our knowledge, that we will likely be wrong, that pandemic policymaking is devilishly hard.

“While one may glean fleeting satisfaction by blaming others for the pain and uncertainty we’re all experiencing, the scars from the scolds will persist long after the pandemic is blessedly behind us,” Kyle Smith wrote. “Instead, we should all try to be kinder and more gracious toward each other. Most people are doing the absolute best they can, often making incredibly tough decisions amid extraordinarily difficult circumstances. Nearly everyone knows the coronavirus is a threat they must take seriously. No one wants people to get sick and die, and it’s time to stop acting as if they do.”

Or as Oster said more pithily, “So for 2021, a resolution, a hope: More tests. Less shame. Less COVID.”

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