Short Circuit: An inexhaustive weekly compendium of rulings from the federal courts of appeal

Please enjoy the latest edition of Short Circuit, a weekly feature written by a bunch of people at the Institute for Justice.

Victory! This week the Pennsylvania Supreme Court rejected the “open fields doctrine” under its state constitution, ruling in favor of IJ’s clients the Punxsutawney and Pitch Pine hunting clubs. They challenged warrantless searches of their property by state gov’t agents. At the federal level, the doctrine allows searches of private land without a warrant. As a result, about 96% of all private land in the country is exposed to warrantless searches and surveillance. Pennsylvania had followed the doctrine but the court found its precedent failed to protect the rights of our clients and everyone else in Pennsylvania.

New cert grant! Since 2012, the state of Alaska has been trying to permanently forfeit Ken Jouppi’s $95,000 airplane after he transported a passenger carrying a six-pack. On Monday, the U.S. Supreme Court agreed to decide if it can. For decades, Ken flew his Cessna across the Alaskan wilderness, shuttling locals and tourists who depend on bush pilots like him. Then, state troopers found some Budweiser tucked in a passenger’s luggage. Ken and the passenger were charged with misdemeanors, fined $1,500, and sentenced to 3 days in jail. But Alaska tried to take his plane too. Now, the Court will decide whether taking a man’s plane over a six-pack is an unconstitutionally excessive fine.

New on the Short Circuit podcast: Men in black and Presidents in ultra vires.

  1. Don’t leak a President’s tax returns or you could go to prison for a while, the D.C. Circuit informs us. It also informs us that even though this particular crime occurred in 2017, the defendant housed the data on, among other devices, an iPod. Footnote 2: “Yes, iPod, not iPad.”
  2. How do things work at the NLRB now that the Chevron doctrine has “run down the curtain and joined the bleedin’ choir invisible”? NLRB: Congress has provided us with policymaking authority so we still get to do a lot of what we want. D.C. Circuit: But not here. Dissent: Chevron is gone but it wasn’t everything to do with agency discretion.
  3. After the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi, the U.S. established a diplomatic outpost in Benghazi to help the country transition from a dictatorial regime to a democracy. An Islamic militant group attacked the outpost in 2012, killing the U.S. ambassador to Libya and three other Americans. The militiaman who helped lead the attack is captured, sentenced to 22 years in prison. D.C. Circuit (2022): Shockingly light, try again. District court: Okay, 28 years. D.C. Circuit (2026): The sentencing court’s discretion is vast—but not this vast. He’s a terrorist whose only stated regret is that every American there wasn’t killed. He needs a much longer sentence.
  4. Russian auditor of $4 bil hedge fund stumbles onto a tax-fraud scheme implicating the Russian gov’t and mob. After bringing the scheme to light, Russian authorities whisk him away to prison, never to emerge again. The fund’s founder gets Congress to pass a law authorizing sanctions for human rights abusers. Russian-American lobbyist living in D.C. sets out to refute the story and rehabilitate Russia’s image. He’s present at a 2016 Trump Tower meeting involving Donald Trump Jr., about which the fund’s founder goes on a media offensive, including appearing in NYC on a CBS This Morning segment where he described the lobbyist as a shady “spy operator in Washington.” The lobbyist sues for defamation in D.C. federal court. D.C. Circuit: Commenting about D.C. residents over mass media doesn’t satisfy International Shoe or more recent personal jurisdiction precedents. Case tossed.
  5. Palestinian student at Columbia University shows up for U.S. citizenship interview, but is instead arrested and ordered removed from the country. He immediately files a habeas petition and is ordered released. The feds appeal. Second Circuit: The district court had no jurisdiction. Congress requires these cases to go through the administrative process.
  6. At a meth-trafficking trial, a marshal reports a gallery spectator was clicking his teeth and rocking in his pew, as if to brand the witness a liar. However, he “didn’t get the indication he was trying to intimidate him.” Judge partially closes the courtroom for the rest of the witness’s testimony. Fourth Circuit: Partial closures need only a “substantial reason,” and shielding a witness from intimidation qualifies. Affirmed. Dissent: The court found no facts, never asked the witness, and considered nothing short of closure (capped with an invocation of A Man for All Seasons on giving even the Devil the benefit of law).
  7. Splitting with the Third Circuit, the Fourth Circuit says district courts have jurisdiction to hear habeas challenges to certain deportations. As the dissent explains in a footnote, this is a different kettle o’ fish from the whole can-you-get-a-bond rigmarole going on elsewhere.
  8. Allegation: Godley, Tex. councilwoman asks pointed questions about city spending and is warned by police of “consequences” if she keeps it up. Her “crime”: adding proposed items to an emailed courtesy copy of a council agenda and asking the city secretary to post the updated version. The DA laughs off a felony forgery case, so—after being told by the mayor to “get it done”—officers take a misdemeanor tampering charge to a different prosecutor. She’s arrested outside city hall minutes before a meeting where she’d have voted against the mayor’s preferred appointees. Fifth Circuit: “Not every document that emerges from a government employee’s printer is so sanctified.” No probable cause and no dismissal of her Fourth Amendment and retaliation claims. (Déjà vu? Same statute as IJ’s Gonzalez v. Trevino.)
  9. In as-applied challenges to federal felon-in-possession-charges news, the Fifth Circuit rules (with no majority opinion and over a dissent) for a guy who is only a felon because he damaged property, not people. Cries for an en banc doctrinal clean up are noticeably audible.
  10. “Alien smuggling,” on the other hand, does not make for an as-applied Second Amendment challenge in the Fifth Circuit.
  11. Nashville woman is arrested at gunpoint for felony evading; officer testifies she ignored his lights and sirens for ten minutes. The case is stayed for three years, during which the charges cost her her job and home and ruin her life. Tapes eventually reveal she was “driving normal speeds” and that the officer was “not in pursuit.” Charges are dropped within a week and she sues within a year. Sixth Circuit: In a split opinion, one judge says too late as the clock was triggered by her arrest, another—who admits having a “deeply troubled” deciding vote—by knowing she’d done nothing wrong. Either way, Brady is no help because these charges were dismissed before Dissent: This “makes a mockery of the law.”
  12. Sixth Circuit: “[Officer] Willis responds that Steger has cited only cases involving the use of pepper spray, which he says would not warn him of the illegality of slamming Steger to the ground and punching him.”
  13. Your summarist had never heard of the Almighty Vice Lord Nation before today, but—based on the information in this opinion of the Sixth Circuit—now hopes there will soon be a prestige television series about it in the near future.
  14. In which the Seventh Circuit notes in passing that the plaintiff journalists seem to have accidentally stipulated that it would have been physically impossible for the defendant police officers to have shot them with foam-baton rounds but nonetheless goes on to hold that the officers did not violate the Constitution by shooting them with foam-baton rounds.
  15. If you buy a foreclosed property in Chicago, you owe ten grand to each tenant who decides not to renew their lease, no matter why they choose to leave. Which seems maybe in tension with the cases recognizing the broad scope of the Takings Clause, says the Seventh Circuit, but is also a-okay under the cases saying rent control is a-okay.
  16. University of Wisconsin freshman tells police and the University that she was sexually assaulted by another student. The University provides academic accommodations, imposes a no-contact order on the alleged rapist, and expels him from campus. After a jury acquits him, the University readmits him, citing new evidence, but keeps the no-contact order in place. The alleged victim sues the school under Title IX. Seventh Circuit (en banc): No jury could believe the school acted with deliberate indifference to known acts of sexual harassment. Concurrence (Easterbrook, J.): More to the point, there’s no allegation that the University is discriminating on the basis of sex.
  17. Age obviously isn’t “immutable” because you, yourself, are older than you’ve ever been (and now you’re even older). But, says the Ninth Circuit, it’s still “immutable” in the sense that you can’t change it on purpose.
  18. Ninth Circuit: The First Amendment doesn’t prevent a school district from disciplining a public-school education specialist for displaying the children’s book Johnny the Walrus (which is some sort of trans allegory) because schools can restrict the messages employees convey to children. Dissent: Displaying Johnny the Walrus in his own office is still his personal expression, even if it’s in a public school where kids can see it. (For a fun game, decide what you think about this case now, while you still don’t know whether Johnny the Walrus is allegedly a pro- or anti-trans allegory.)
  19. Ninth Circuit: When a juror announces a bias before hearing evidence, a district court should take immediate action—even if the juror’s an alternate. That’s because, like happened here, sometimes the alternate ends up deliberating.
  20. Santa Barbara, Cal. officers suspect a parolee is up to no good, visiting L.A. at odd hours. They find he’s in a trailer next to his girlfriend’s family’s house. They find him there and, without a warrant, search the trailer and a truck they believe is his and find ammo and lots of drugs. Ninth Circuit: Given the Fourth Amendment doesn’t do much for parolees, the searches were all fine. Dissent: But you at least need probable cause that the stuff was his. For all the cops knew he was just a trailer guest.
  21. This Tenth Circuit case holds that a public library did not violate the First Amendment by suspending a patron who violated the library’s rule against displaying signs in the library by displaying signs protesting the library’s rule against displaying signs in the library.
  22. Allegation: Florida federal prisoner finds out he has Hep C and repeatedly complains to prison authorities as it gets worse. Though treated for symptoms, he’s never given meds that could have saved him. He also never files a formal complaint under an unenforceable grievance program called the ARP. He dies. Eleventh Circuit: He has no Bivens claim because of that complaint-box thingy.
  23. And in en banc news, the Fifth Circuit will reconsider its decision that the ban on felons possessing firearms is a constitutional exercise of Congress’s power to regulate interstate commerce. One judge issued a rare dissent from the grant. (Yes, yes, people, we know it’s called a “disgrantle” in certain circles.)
  24. And in additional en banc news, the Fifth Circuit issued a “published order” that, among other things, stayed a pair of district court judgments concerning whether denial of a bond hearing in certain deportation cases violates due process. As we reported last week, the merits of the appeals are pending with the en banc court.
  25. And in further en banc news, the Tenth Circuit will not reconsider a decision on the applicability of the McDonnell Douglas burden shifting standard in certain Title VII cases. Four judges would have granted review.

New cert petition! A Massachusetts regulation forces parents to choose between sending their children to private school and receiving special education services that state law guarantees. The First Circuit said this was just fine because the “unconstitutional conditions” doctrine is merely a First Amendment thing—it doesn’t apply to the long-recognized right to send one’s child to a private school. Five other courts: oh really? Petition for cert: can you settle whether one of the oldest constitutional principles applies to one of the oldest constitutional rights?

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What Jimothy the Raccoon Reveals About Seattle


Jimothy of Seattle | Midjourney/Hans Slegers/Dreamstime

What does it take to reveal a contradiction? In at least one case, it is a deformed raccoon sashaying across Seattle, delightfully unbothered.

If you make your home somewhere deep under a rock, I am referring to Jimothy—who else?—the feral hunchback whose viral sightings have injected a ray of sunshine into the land of perpetual drizzle, and also across the globe. What is it about him? Or her? Or them? There may be multiple Jimothys, after all: other little trash pandas likely afflicted with short spine syndrome, giving her/him/them the rounded back that has captured the attention and affection of many.

But it need not matter, because Jimothy is an idea—a symbol of being unapologetically different and free, despite dealing with similar setbacks as, say, Quasimodo (who was, unfortunately, locked in a bell tower).

“I think he’s an example to all of us that you don’t have to be perfect to be loved,” said Seattle City Councilmember Alexis Mercedes Rinck, who also announced that the city would present a proclamation in his honor this weekend. “It is a dream of mine to encounter Jimothy in real life and then keep my measured distance from him so he can live his good little life.”

Ah, Seattle. A city most known for its lawmakers keeping their measured distance and letting their constituents live their good little lives.

Shall we walk—scamper, Jimothy-style—down memory lane? Let’s. In 2018, Seattle officially outlawed single-use plastic straws and utensils. That was a groundbreaking move at the time, and it was very expensive for businesses to comply. It also meant that many residents and visitors trying to live their good little lives across Seattle have felt straws disintegrate in their mouths as their drink transforms into a concoction of coffee and paper. Is that how we should honor the hometown of Starbucks?

And the rents. Oh, the rents. Seattle’s notoriously constrictive zoning rules prohibit anything but single-family homes from being built in the majority of the city. Which means to live your good little life there, you will probably pay a big, bad rent. Jimothy, thankfully, is living in many of our heads rent-free. I charge him nothing.

That’s not to say lawmakers aren’t trying to help. The city’s recent sky-high minimum wage for delivery drivers was, in theory, supposed to give a raise to some in the working class. Instead, driver earnings reportedly plunged as the increased expense associated with using delivery apps saw orders fall off a cliff. “I believe we created a problem, and it’s our responsibility to fix it,” conceded Sara Nelson, then the president of the Seattle City Council. The introspection is refreshing. But the government still has not fixed it after lawmakers decidedly did not keep their measured distance.

Hot Jimothy summer will come to an end. People’s attention spans are short. But it may be hard to forget him, at least for a time, when considering what he has already left behind: a raft of paintings, tattoos (a choice), mosaics, and more. So Jimothy will remain. He has become a mascot for freedom—for defiantly living a good little life—in a city too often hostile to that very thing.

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Trump Can’t Just Pretend Iran War Casualties Don’t Count


President Donald Trump addresses the press in the White House briefing room. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth stands nearby. | Mehmet Eser/Middle East Images/StringersHub/Sipa USA/Newscom

As his war against Iran stretches into a fifth month, President Donald Trump is almost certainly looking for good news. A new report suggests his administration may be fudging the number of total casualties.

Earlier this week on Truth Social, Trump listed four previous American wars alongside the two military engagements he has launched in his second term: the January raid that ousted Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro and the war with Iran.

A screenshot of a Truth Social post where Donald Trump compares casualties from various U.S. conflicts
Truth Social

While the conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam, and the Korean Peninsula each lasted multiple years and cost thousands of American lives, Trump bragged that his incursions were much more efficient, with Venezuela lasting only one day with no casualties, and only 18 dead so far from the war with Iran.

But within days, even that total was revised down.

“On Wednesday, the Pentagon reported on its casualties website that a total of 18 American service members had been killed during the war in Iran,” The New York Times reported. “By Thursday, the Defense Department had lowered that number, reporting that 14 American troops had been killed in the war.”

The Pentagon’s casualty tracker currently lists seven deaths as a result of hostilities and seven that were “non-hostile,” the result of accidents like the refueling aircraft that crashed in March, killing all six crewmembers onboard.

Four U.S. Army soldiers were killed in Jordan and Iraq last weekend; the Defense Department called the deaths “related to Iranian aggression.” And yet the Pentagon doesn’t include any of them as casualties of the conflict.

Why the revision? Acting Defense Department press secretary Joel Valdez told the Times it was the result of “temporary data disruptions” and would be fixed. But the paper, citing “three military officials,” said the administration scrubbed the four most recent casualties “because their deaths occurred after President Trump declared a cease-fire in the war in April.”

“That ceasefire, however, didn’t last,” Peter Suderman wrote today in the Reason Roundup. “And earlier this month, Trump notified Congress that the United States was once again at war with Iran.” In fact, Trump called the ceasefire “over” on July 8, more than a week before those four soldiers died.

Such a blatant attempt to cover up the administration’s own war record is troubling.

It’s perhaps also not new: In a letter to Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth on Thursday, the 12 Democrats on the Senate Armed Services Committee requested “a comprehensive accounting of the number of service members who have been killed, wounded, or injured in support of the operation.” The lawmakers complained the Pentagon’s site “has reported inconsistent casualty figures, raising additional questions about the transparency and reliability of the Department’s public reporting and statements.”

But no matter what Trump says, American soldiers are still dead as a direct result of the conflict he helped instigate. And it’s not the first time he has used semantics to massage the truth about his war.

In March, just a month after hostilities began, Trump bragged that he purposely avoided using the word war to keep from triggering the War Powers Resolution, which requires the president to end a conflict within 60 days or get Congress’ approval. (After 60 days, Trump ultimately just pretended the conflict was over as a result of the April ceasefire.)

He needn’t have bothered, of course: Despite taking numerous votes on what is clearly an unconstitutional war of choice, Congress has yet to successfully vote to end it. While the House voted this week on a (non-binding) resolution to end the war, an effort in the Senate failed the same day.

Ultimately, this is all just a game of semantics. However Trump and Hegseth choose to list them, it doesn’t change the fact that Americans are dead as a result of their choices.

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Trump’s Newest Tariffs Are Likely Illegal Too


Donald Trump against a background showing a ship with shipping containers | Johnny Fidelin/ZUMAPRESS/Newscom/Envato

The latest evolution of President Donald Trump’s trade war arrived on Thursday evening: New tariffs ranging from 10 percent to 12.5 percent, targeting most of America’s largest trading partners.

Those new tariffs replace the so-called “global tariff” of 10 percent that Trump implemented in the wake of the Supreme Court’s ruling in February that struck down an earlier set of tariffs. That “global tariff” had been implemented under the auspices of a law that grants the president power to impose temporary tariffs that last no more than 150 days—in other words, that was always a stop-gap solution, and the tariffs announced Thursday are meant to be a more permanent arrangement.

But like the first round of tariffs and the second round of temporary tariffs, this third round of tariffs has some obvious legal and constitutional deficiencies. In levying these new tariffs, the Trump administration is once again ignoring limits that are written into the very law it is seeking to use. It is also disregarding the constitutional principle that the Supreme Court highlighted in its February ruling on the earlier tariffs.

In short: Trump’s new tariffs are likely illegal too. But it will probably require another lengthy court battle to overturn them.

Let’s take the two issues one by one, starting with the statutory shortcomings.

Trump is invoking Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose these new tariffs. Starting today, imports from 17 American trade partners (including Canada, Mexico, and the European Union) will be subject to 10 percent tariffs. Imports from another 43 trading partners will be subject to 12.5 percent tariffs.

Ostensibly, these tariffs are meant to combat “forced labor.” The Trump administration says the tariffs are the result of an investigation into 60 foreign economies that “fail to prohibit or to effectively enforce a prohibition on the importation of goods produced wholly or in part with forced labor.”

Immediately, a logical problem emerges. The announcement says that the 10 percent tariff will apply even to countries that “impose a forced labor import prohibition,” as long as the administration believes that prohibition is not being adequately enforced. It is unclear what, exactly, a foreign country would have to do to get removed from that list. That makes it fairly obvious that combating forced labor is a pretext for what the Trump administration really wants to do: have more tariffs.

Before Section 301 can be invoked, the U.S. Trade Representative must make an “investigation” into whatever behavior is being used to justify the tariffs. In this case, those investigations were a “sham” meant to reach a predetermined conclusion, Scott Lincicome, vice president of general economics at the Cato Institute, in The Dispatch

“The findings were clearly predetermined. The methodology is thin to the point of embarrassment. The remedy is both ridiculously blunt and wildly out of proportion to any measurable economic distortion,” Lincicome writes. “The action gives targeted countries no way to get the tariffs lifted by eliminating their supposedly bad behavior. And the whole thing establishes precedent for an ‘automatic tariff generator’ that Trump or a future president can deploy at will.”

Both U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters earlier this year that the Section 301 tariffs were meant to replace the tariffs that had been struck down by the Supreme Court. Greer has been quite clear that the timeline for the “investigations” would be sped up so the new tariffs could be ready when the 150-day window for Trump’s other tariffs closed.

Both in timing and in substance, the investigations underpinning these new tariffs look fabricated to reach a specific outcome.

The announced tariffs also seem to violate the law’s requirement that tariffs be “appropriate” to the harm caused. As Peter Harrell, an attorney and scholar at Georgetown University’s Institute of International Economic Law, explained in a June post at the Volokh Conspiracy, that’s not the case here.

“Rather than trying to quantify the harm that, for example, Italy or Japan’s alleged failure to adequately enforce a prohibition on imports made with forced labor does to the U.S. economy, USTR’s [the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative] investigation simply provides a few illustrative examples that attempt to show that a handful of individual products potentially made with forced labor, such as rice exported by Myanmar, might have displaced some quantum of U.S. exports in some markets,” Harrell wrote.

Then, there are the constitutional problems. When the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s earlier tariffs, Justice Neil Gorsuch spelled things out quite directly in his concurring opinion: “The Constitution lodges the Nation’s lawmaking powers in Congress alone, and the major questions doctrine safeguards that assignment against executive encroachment.”

What Trump is trying to do with these new Section 301 tariffs seems to go well beyond “executive encroachment.” He is again stretching some limited tariff powers granted by Congress and attempting to turn Section 301 into, as Lincicome put it, an “automatic tariff generator.”

That was clearly not Congress’s intention in passing Section 301. Even if it was, the major questions doctrine—which requires that matters of major economic and political significance be settled by Congress—and the related nondelegation doctrine would prohibit the legislature from handing over such broad power over trade policy.

“While the Supreme Court’s nondelegation precedent is far from completely clear, last year’s decision in FCC v. Consumers’ Research held that delegations of the power to impose taxes and other financial levies must have a clear ‘floor’ and ‘ceiling’ and that ‘[t]he guidance needed is greater when an agency action will affect the entire national economy than when it addresses a narrow, technical issue,'” explains Ilya Somin, a law professor at George Mason University and one of the attorneys who fought Trump’s earlier tariffs. “There is no meaningful floor or ceiling under the administration’s approach to Section 301. And the power claimed is clearly one that massively affects the ‘entire national economy.'”

Of course, there is a significant difference between an executive action being obviously illegal or unconstitutional, and the president being prevented from doing it. Every single time Trump’s tariffs have gone before a court, the administration has lost.

Despite that, it took nearly a year for the first set of tariffs (which were announced in April 2025) to be struck down by the Supreme Court (in February 2026). The second set of tariffs expired before they could get to the Supreme Court—but they had already been ruled unlawful by one lower court.

It will likely take a long time to get another tariff case challenging the Section 301 tariffs through the court system. In the meantime, American businesses and consumers will be burdened by the cost of these new tariffs—estimated to be about $100 billion annually—thanks to a president who is unwilling to recognize the flaws with his tariff plans or the limits of his executive powers.

If ever there was a time for Congress to make meaningful changes to American tariff laws, it is now.

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Nine Potential Commodity Wildcards As “Once-A-Decade” Shocks Become New Normal

Nine Potential Commodity Wildcards As “Once-A-Decade” Shocks Become New Normal

A growing number of institutional desks sounded alarms over physical commodity markets this week as maritime chokepoint disruptions intensified across the Gulf.

Goldman Sachs, RBC Capital Markets, JPMorgan, and others warned that a tightening physical market could keep Brent firmly in triple-digit territory and drive prices sharply higher if the disruptions persist.

Joining the conversation was Citigroup Senior Commodities Strategist Eric Lee, who warned Thursday that commodity markets have entered an era of near-constant disruption, with geopolitical, climate, and technological shocks increasingly overwhelming traditional supply-and-demand analysis.

Lee warned:

Commodities markets are in an era where geopolitical, climate and technological shocks routinely overwhelm traditional supply-demand analysis. Rather than only what is most likely, investors need to consider what is plausible, and what markets are least prepared for.

The frequency of major commodities market disruptions appears to be rising. Events once considered “once -a-decade” now seem to emerge every year, or even every six months.

Since the early 2000s, markets have navigated the Global Financial Crisis, the Arab Spring, the US shale revolution, OPEC’s strategic policy shifts; since 2020, wildcards include COVID-19, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, trade wars, gold-positive macro concerns, weather-driven agricultural disruptions, and repeated Middle East conflicts.

Timeline showing notable wildcards and shocks impacting commodities, 2000-2026

List of notable wildcards and shocks impacting commodities:

Lee outlined nine high-impact commodity-market wildcards for the second half of 2026 and beyond, warning that the scenarios are not base-case forecasts but risks with consequences too large for investors to ignore:

  1. US-Iran conflict goes from temporary shock to multi-year disruption of Gulf oil production capacity, driving crude oil to $150+, wholesale refined products to $200+, US retail gasoline to $6/gal sustained.

  2. Russia-Ukraine escalation drives renewed oil and gas export restrictions: this could be even more bullish for global gas than for oil.

  3. Critical minerals hoarding goes into overdrive: drives copper to $20k/t and more.

  4. Gold falls another 15–20% near-term before doubling.

  5. Hyper El Niño and other extreme weather: drives ag price spikes, e.g. cocoa back to >$10k/t.

  6. AI boom and bust: buffet electricity, natural gas, uranium, and power-infrastructure metals like copper and aluminium one way, and gold the other way.

  7. Trade war hits US farmers again: US-China trade war resumes, hitting US ag exports, which could push corn below $4.2/bu and soybeans below $10/bu.

  8. 2030 LNG glut worsens on Russian Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline to China: driving global LNG prices like JKM down to $5–6/MMBtu.

  9. Monroe Doctrine extreme: US blockades all Americas oil exports, driving global oil prices to well above $100/bbl, while US benchmarks might be discounted by over $30/bbl.

A look at the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM), a widely tracked commodity-futures benchmark, shows the broader complex, spanning energy, agriculture, metals, and livestock, continuing to climb from its Covid-era lows.

Professional subscribers can access deeper commodity analysis at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 07/24/2026 – 12:40

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/eOC5Dp2 Tyler Durden

AI Capex Depreciation Risk Is The Catch To Record Earnings

AI Capex Depreciation Risk Is The Catch To Record Earnings

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The second-quarter earnings season is in full swing. So far, the results are landing in line or better than the upwardly revised Wall Street estimates. That’s the opposite of how this usually works. Analysts normally trim their forecasts as a year wears on. In 2026, they’ve done the opposite. The S&P 500 is on track to grow earnings north of 20% for a second straight quarter. The earnings are real. However, a meaningful slice of them is also an accident of accounting timing. That timing, the AI capex depreciation risk, hasn’t hit the income statement yet. But it is about to turn from a tailwind into a headwind.

Alphabet handed investors a live example last week. The headline read earnings up 294%. Peel back a $99 billion paper gain on its stakes in Anthropic and SpaceX, and per-share earnings came in around $2.85 against a $2.88 estimate, with the core business growing a solid but ordinary 30%.6 That gain is one kind of distortion, and it can reverse the moment those private valuations move. The distortion this piece is about is quieter and larger, the depreciation bill on the AI buildout that today’s reported earnings have barely begun to absorb.

The Golden Window

Currently, the entire earnings growth story is concentrated in the semiconductor and AI-infrastructure names. The accounting underneath it is where the catch hides.2 Here is what I mean. When Nvidia sells a chip, it books the revenue and the profit almost immediately. The hyperscaler buying that chip does the opposite. It records the purchase as a capital asset and spreads the cost across years through depreciation. So the seller’s earnings jump now, while the buyer’s costs arrive later, in slow motion.

Here’s what makes this run unusual. Analysts normally walk their forecasts down as the year unfolds. Over the past five years, consensus has trimmed full-year estimates by about 2% on average at this point on the calendar.4 In 2026, they’ve gone the other way. The full-year S&P 500 earnings growth estimate has climbed from roughly 14% in February to north of 23% now, a swing of nearly nine percentage points in the wrong direction for anyone expecting the usual fade. With Q2 results landing through late July, that bar keeps moving higher.

That upward march is the golden window in motion. Every beat this quarter lifts the bar for the next one, and the more confidently the Street marks earnings higher, the more those forward numbers lean on costs that haven’t shown up yet. Make no mistake: this is the same setup I flagged in “Earnings Estimate Revisions Are Very Optimistic.” The AI capex depreciation missing from today’s numbers is exactly what those rising estimates are quietly assuming away.

Todd Castagno at Morgan Stanley calls this “a golden window where everybody looks good.”2 He’s right. Revenues and margins look strong among chipmakers and the companies buying the chips at the same time, which is exactly the kind of broad, simultaneous strength that convinces investors a cycle is durable rather than borrowed from the future. Make no mistake, there’s nothing improper here. This is how companies book capital assets. What’s different this cycle is the sheer scale of the spending, and the eventual AI capex depreciation is being overlooked.

Where The Bill Actually Lands

Here’s the problem with the everything-is-fine read. The spending is enormous, and it shows up in cash long before it shows up in earnings. The five biggest hyperscalers, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle, spent about $412 billion on capex in 2025.2 For 2026, the estimates run to roughly $760 billion.2,3 Yet the AI capex depreciation and amortization that those companies expect to recognize against all that spending in 2026 is only about $211 billion.

Read those two numbers again. They’re spending $760 billion and expensing $211 billion. The other $549 billion sits on the balance sheet, waiting. It becomes an earnings cost later, once the equipment goes into service and the AI capital depreciation clock starts. A good chunk of it isn’t even running yet, because the data centers housing it are still under construction.

The cleanest way to see the gap is the cash. For 2026, combined free cash flow at those five companies is projected to fall 91% to about $16 billion, while net income is projected to rise 25% to roughly $506 billion.2 A business can report half a trillion dollars of profit and throw off almost no cash in the same year. That’s not fraud. That’s depreciation timing. You don’t have to wait for the full-year math to see it. In the second quarter alone, Alphabet spent $44.9 billion on capital projects, more than double a year earlier, and its free cash flow swung to negative $5.9 billion even as it booked $40.8 billion of operating income.6 The cash is already walking out the door. The reported profit hasn’t flinched.

The Number Nobody Can Model

However, here is where it gets interesting. If depreciation is the future cost of today’s earnings, you’d want analysts to have a tight handle on it. They don’t. Look at the consensus estimates for Meta in 2028. The standard deviation of the revenue forecasts is just 4% of the average. The standard deviation on the depreciation-and-amortization forecasts blows out to 24%, six times wider.2 Translation: analysts broadly agree on what Meta will sell. They have almost no agreement on what it will cost to run the machines that produce it.

Why so uncertain? A few reasons. Most of these firms only shifted from asset-light to capital-heavy models in the past few years, so there’s little history to model against. Companies also have wide latitude to lengthen or shorten the useful lives they assign to equipment, and that single assumption swings the annual depreciation number significantly. On top of that, a growing share of the buildout is financed off-balance-sheet. As David Zion of Zion Research Group puts it, consensus depreciation estimates “could be systematically understated.”

You can already hear the pressure building in the guidance. On last week’s call, Alphabet’s finance chief told analysts the infrastructure ramp will keep weighing on the income statement through higher depreciation expense.6 Management knows the bill is coming. What nobody can pin down is how large it gets.

That table is the entire bull case in five rows. The market isn’t paying for the $16 billion. It’s paying for the snapback to $387 billion. And the snapback is an assumption, not a result.

“You’re paying 22 times earnings today for profits whose single biggest future expense the analysts modeling them can’t agree on within a quarter of a trillion dollars. That’s the catch.”

“But The Revenue Will Come”

Let me steel-man the optimists, because they aren’t wrong about everything. The consensus view holds that capex growth tapers after 2026 while revenue keeps climbing, so free cash flow rebounds in a clean “V.” The same forecasts that show $16 billion in free cash flow this year also show it recovering to $185 billion in 2028 and $387 billion in 2029, with earnings compounding at around 20% a year through the end of the decade.2 If that plays out, today’s multiple looks reasonable in hindsight, and the depreciation wave gets buried under a bigger revenue wave.

Put real numbers on the bet. Consensus has the five hyperscalers’ capex climbing from $412 billion in 2025 to roughly $760 billion this year, then to about $820 billion in 2027 and $930 billion in 2028.2,5 Watch the growth rate, not the level. Spending jumps 84% into 2026, then the annual increase collapses to single digits. That deceleration is the entire argument. If capex growth stalls while net income keeps compounding near 20% a year, free cash flow snaps back on its own, because the cash stops rushing out the door faster than it comes in. The chart below is the bull case drawn to scale.

It’s a coherent story. It also leans on a capex taper the same companies have run straight through at nearly every guide. Each time the Street pencils in a slowdown, the next quarter’s guidance lands higher. The 2026 consensus alone climbed from about $600 billion last November to $760 billion by February.3 So the model that gets you back to $387 billion of free cash flow assumes spending discipline from an industry that hasn’t shown any. Last week made the point again. Alphabet lifted its 2026 capital budget to as much as $205 billion, up from $190 billion just a quarter earlier, and told investors to expect spending to rise significantly again in 2027.6 That is the opposite of a taper.

Maybe. But notice everything that case requires. It needs capex to slow on schedule, revenue to accelerate on schedule, and depreciation that everyone admits they can’t model to behave itself along the way. Bob Farrell’s Rule #9 has aged well for a reason. When all the experts and forecasts agree, something else usually happens. The V-shaped recovery isn’t a forecast. It’s an assumption wearing a forecast’s clothes.

The issue is NOT whether AI is real. It is. The issue is whether the price already paid assumes a clean landing that the people closest to the numbers can’t promise.

What This Means For Your Portfolio

So what do you do with it? Start with the multiple. The S&P 500 trades around 22 times forward earnings, above its historical average, and that’s before the depreciation wave ramps.1 If the forward earnings inside that ratio are flattered by deferred costs, then the real multiple on fully loaded earnings is higher than the sticker says. You’re paying more than it looks.

I made a related point last month in Earnings Estimate Revisions Are Very Optimistic. Strip AI infrastructure out of the index, and the other 470-odd companies have seen their 2026 earnings estimates revised lower over the prior 17 months. This is the same warning from a different angle. The index’s earnings engine is concentrated in a handful of names. Notably, a chunk of those names’ reported profits carries a deferred bill that the consensus is probably underpricing. Concentration risk and earnings-quality risk are now stacking on top of each other. I walked through the valuation side of this in Parabolic Semiconductor Rally Is Pricing In 2028 Already as well.

While we continue to hold AI infrastructure positions. But we also continue to manage that risk. We will trim the names that have done the most work, hedge the largest exposures while protection is still cheap, and you keep dry powder for the first real disappointment. Howard Marks has spent a career making the same point. The riskiest moment is usually the one that feels the safest.

The AI capex depreciation wave is coming. That part isn’t in dispute. The only open questions are how big it is, when exactly it lands, and whether the revenue arrives in time to absorb it. Right now, the market is answering all three with optimism and pricing the answer as though it were already known. When the first hyperscaler guides depreciation higher than the Street modeled, the golden window closes fast. Better to position for that before the tape forces the issue.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 07/24/2026 – 12:20

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/GdzKvfm Tyler Durden

Trump Can’t Just Pretend Iran War Casualties Don’t Count


President Donald Trump addresses the press in the White House briefing room. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth stands nearby. | Mehmet Eser/Middle East Images/StringersHub/Sipa USA/Newscom

As his war against Iran stretches into a fifth month, President Donald Trump is almost certainly looking for good news. A new report suggests his administration may be fudging the number of total casualties.

Earlier this week on Truth Social, Trump listed four previous American wars alongside the two military engagements he has launched in his second term: the January raid that ousted Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro and the war with Iran.

A screenshot of a Truth Social post where Donald Trump compares casualties from various U.S. conflicts
Truth Social

While the conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam, and the Korean Peninsula each lasted multiple years and cost thousands of American lives, Trump bragged that his incursions were much more efficient, with Venezuela lasting only one day with no casualties, and only 18 dead so far from the war with Iran.

But within days, even that total was revised down.

“On Wednesday, the Pentagon reported on its casualties website that a total of 18 American service members had been killed during the war in Iran,” The New York Times reported. “By Thursday, the Defense Department had lowered that number, reporting that 14 American troops had been killed in the war.”

The Pentagon’s casualty tracker currently lists seven deaths as a result of hostilities and seven that were “non-hostile,” the result of accidents like the refueling aircraft that crashed in March, killing all six crewmembers onboard.

Four U.S. Army soldiers were killed in Jordan and Iraq last weekend; the Defense Department called the deaths “related to Iranian aggression.” And yet the Pentagon doesn’t include any of them as casualties of the conflict.

Why the revision? Acting Defense Department press secretary Joel Valdez told the Times it was the result of “temporary data disruptions” and would be fixed. But the paper, citing “three military officials,” said the administration scrubbed the four most recent casualties “because their deaths occurred after President Trump declared a cease-fire in the war in April.”

“That ceasefire, however, didn’t last,” Peter Suderman wrote today in the Reason Roundup. “And earlier this month, Trump notified Congress that the United States was once again at war with Iran.” In fact, Trump called the ceasefire “over” on July 8, more than a week before those four soldiers died.

Such a blatant attempt to cover up the administration’s own war record is troubling.

It’s perhaps also not new: In a letter to Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth on Thursday, the 12 Democrats on the Senate Armed Services Committee requested “a comprehensive accounting of the number of service members who have been killed, wounded, or injured in support of the operation.” The lawmakers complained the Pentagon’s site “has reported inconsistent casualty figures, raising additional questions about the transparency and reliability of the Department’s public reporting and statements.”

But no matter what Trump says, American soldiers are still dead as a direct result of the conflict he helped instigate. And it’s not the first time he has used semantics to massage the truth about his war.

In March, just a month after hostilities began, Trump bragged that he purposely avoided using the word war to keep from triggering the War Powers Resolution, which requires the president to end a conflict within 60 days or get Congress’ approval. (After 60 days, Trump ultimately just pretended the conflict was over as a result of the April ceasefire.)

He needn’t have bothered, of course: Despite taking numerous votes on what is clearly an unconstitutional war of choice, Congress has yet to successfully vote to end it. While the House voted this week on a (non-binding) resolution to end the war, an effort in the Senate failed the same day.

Ultimately, this is all just a game of semantics. However Trump and Hegseth choose to list them, it doesn’t change the fact that Americans are dead as a result of their choices.

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Trump’s Newest Tariffs Are Likely Illegal Too


Donald Trump against a background showing a ship with shipping containers | Johnny Fidelin/ZUMAPRESS/Newscom/Envato

The latest evolution of President Donald Trump’s trade war arrived on Thursday evening: New tariffs ranging from 10 percent to 12.5 percent, targeting most of America’s largest trading partners.

Those new tariffs replace the so-called “global tariff” of 10 percent that Trump implemented in the wake of the Supreme Court’s ruling in February that struck down an earlier set of tariffs. That “global tariff” had been implemented under the auspices of a law that grants the president power to impose temporary tariffs that last no more than 150 days—in other words, that was always a stop-gap solution, and the tariffs announced Thursday are meant to be a more permanent arrangement.

But like the first round of tariffs and the second round of temporary tariffs, this third round of tariffs has some obvious legal and constitutional deficiencies. In levying these new tariffs, the Trump administration is once again ignoring limits that are written into the very law it is seeking to use. It is also disregarding the constitutional principle that the Supreme Court highlighted in its February ruling on the earlier tariffs.

In short: Trump’s new tariffs are likely illegal too. But it will probably require another lengthy court battle to overturn them.

Let’s take the two issues one by one, starting with the statutory shortcomings.

Trump is invoking Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose these new tariffs. Starting today, imports from 17 American trade partners (including Canada, Mexico, and the European Union) will be subject to 10 percent tariffs. Imports from another 43 trading partners will be subject to 12.5 percent tariffs.

Ostensibly, these tariffs are meant to combat “forced labor.” The Trump administration says the tariffs are the result of an investigation into 60 foreign economies that “fail to prohibit or to effectively enforce a prohibition on the importation of goods produced wholly or in part with forced labor.”

Immediately, a logical problem emerges. The announcement says that the 10 percent tariff will apply even to countries that “impose a forced labor import prohibition,” as long as the administration believes that prohibition is not being adequately enforced. It is unclear what, exactly, a foreign country would have to do to get removed from that list. That makes it fairly obvious that combating forced labor is a pretext for what the Trump administration really wants to do: have more tariffs.

Before Section 301 can be invoked, the U.S. Trade Representative must make an “investigation” into whatever behavior is being used to justify the tariffs. In this case, those investigations were a “sham” meant to reach a predetermined conclusion, Scott Lincicome, vice president of general economics at the Cato Institute, in The Dispatch

“The findings were clearly predetermined. The methodology is thin to the point of embarrassment. The remedy is both ridiculously blunt and wildly out of proportion to any measurable economic distortion,” Lincicome writes. “The action gives targeted countries no way to get the tariffs lifted by eliminating their supposedly bad behavior. And the whole thing establishes precedent for an ‘automatic tariff generator’ that Trump or a future president can deploy at will.”

Both U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters earlier this year that the Section 301 tariffs were meant to replace the tariffs that had been struck down by the Supreme Court. Greer has been quite clear that the timeline for the “investigations” would be sped up so the new tariffs could be ready when the 150-day window for Trump’s other tariffs closed.

Both in timing and in substance, the investigations underpinning these new tariffs look fabricated to reach a specific outcome.

The announced tariffs also seem to violate the law’s requirement that tariffs be “appropriate” to the harm caused. As Peter Harrell, an attorney and scholar at Georgetown University’s Institute of International Economic Law, explained in a June post at the Volokh Conspiracy, that’s not the case here.

“Rather than trying to quantify the harm that, for example, Italy or Japan’s alleged failure to adequately enforce a prohibition on imports made with forced labor does to the U.S. economy, USTR’s [the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative] investigation simply provides a few illustrative examples that attempt to show that a handful of individual products potentially made with forced labor, such as rice exported by Myanmar, might have displaced some quantum of U.S. exports in some markets,” Harrell wrote.

Then, there are the constitutional problems. When the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s earlier tariffs, Justice Neil Gorsuch spelled things out quite directly in his concurring opinion: “The Constitution lodges the Nation’s lawmaking powers in Congress alone, and the major questions doctrine safeguards that assignment against executive encroachment.”

What Trump is trying to do with these new Section 301 tariffs seems to go well beyond “executive encroachment.” He is again stretching some limited tariff powers granted by Congress and attempting to turn Section 301 into, as Lincicome put it, an “automatic tariff generator.”

That was clearly not Congress’s intention in passing Section 301. Even if it was, the major questions doctrine—which requires that matters of major economic and political significance be settled by Congress—and the related nondelegation doctrine would prohibit the legislature from handing over such broad power over trade policy.

“While the Supreme Court’s nondelegation precedent is far from completely clear, last year’s decision in FCC v. Consumers’ Research held that delegations of the power to impose taxes and other financial levies must have a clear ‘floor’ and ‘ceiling’ and that ‘[t]he guidance needed is greater when an agency action will affect the entire national economy than when it addresses a narrow, technical issue,'” explains Ilya Somin, a law professor at George Mason University and one of the attorneys who fought Trump’s earlier tariffs. “There is no meaningful floor or ceiling under the administration’s approach to Section 301. And the power claimed is clearly one that massively affects the ‘entire national economy.'”

Of course, there is a significant difference between an executive action being obviously illegal or unconstitutional, and the president being prevented from doing it. Every single time Trump’s tariffs have gone before a court, the administration has lost.

Despite that, it took nearly a year for the first set of tariffs (which were announced in April 2025) to be struck down by the Supreme Court (in February 2026). The second set of tariffs expired before they could get to the Supreme Court—but they had already been ruled unlawful by one lower court.

It will likely take a long time to get another tariff case challenging the Section 301 tariffs through the court system. In the meantime, American businesses and consumers will be burdened by the cost of these new tariffs—estimated to be about $100 billion annually—thanks to a president who is unwilling to recognize the flaws with his tariff plans or the limits of his executive powers.

If ever there was a time for Congress to make meaningful changes to American tariff laws, it is now.

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Trump’s FAA Moves To End the 50-Year Ban on Domestic Supersonic Flight


An illustration of an aircraft in front of the FAA logo | Illustration: Adani Samat. Photo: Boom Supersonic

Supersonic flight was always focused on crossing oceans in record time. The Concorde famously brought flight times between New York and London down to three hours before its last retirement in 2003. But flying supersonic within the country has been off the table since the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) banned overland supersonic flights in March 1973 due to loud sonic booms.

The Trump administration wants to change that—though the bureaucracy is moving slowly. Last year, President Donald Trump signed an executive order promising to “empower our engineers, entrepreneurs, and visionaries to deliver the next generation of air travel” by lifting the ban. Earlier this month, the FAA announced a proposal for new sound-based rules that would replace the total ban. Members of the public have until August 17 to comment.

The proposal sets a limit of 0.11 pounds per square foot of overpressure in the ground from sonic booms. (For comparison, the Concorde produced 1.94 pounds per square foot at peak overpressure.) The new limit is based on research by the startup Boom Supersonic, which is pioneering a technique to ensure that the shock waves from breaking the sound barrier bounce harmlessly around the atmosphere instead of reaching the ground.

Boom Supersonic itself is cautiously optimistic about the FAA’s proposal. “We’re thrilled that supersonic flight is about to be legal again, on the heels of our historic demonstration of boomless supersonic flight aboard XB-1,” company spokeswoman Aubrey Scanlan tells Reason, promising to “provide our comments to the FAA after a full assessment” of the rules.

Supersonic passenger travel is a dream deferred by decades. In the 1960s, the working assumption of aircraft manufacturers around the world was that most long-haul flights would be supersonic. Airports, including the airfield in southern Florida that later became Alligator Alcatraz, were built to host the anticipated monster jets.

Sonic booms turned out to be more of a problem than expected. In 1964, the FAA and U.S. Air Force tried to prove the harmlessness of sonic booms by flying jets repeatedly over Oklahoma City. Instead, they ended up breaking windows, terrorizing citizens, and galvanizing a public backlash, leading to the FAA’s ban on overland supersonic flights.

The other problem with supersonic travel was the economics. The only supersonic passenger jet that made it to market was the Concorde, heavily subsidized by the French and British governments. Even so, tickets were $7,000 per round trip—which would be nearly double in today’s money. And a deadly accident in 2000 scared away many of the Concorde’s customers.

Boom Supersonic is promising to solve both the economic and technical problems. It is the first private company ever to develop a supersonic airplane with (mostly) private money. CEO Black Scholl told CNN in 2021 that he was aiming at flights with $100 tickets, and after the flight of its XB-1 prototype in 2024, the company reported 130 orders and preorders from airlines.

As for sonic booms, the theories behind boomless supersonic flight have existed for a few decades. Only recently have aerodynamic computer models allowed engineers to put them into practice. An object flying faster than the speed of sound generates a cone of pressure waves that sounds like a loud explosion to anyone it passes over. Boom Supersonic attempts to take advantage of a phenomenon called Mach cutoff, in which refraction through the atmosphere prevents those pressure waves from ever hitting the ground. The company announced the first successful “boomless cruise” in February 2025, though scientists caution that Mach cutoff depends on specific weather conditions.

Whether or not this company specifically succeeds, it’s important that the Trump administration is letting them try. And it’s about time. A 2016 paper by the Mercatus Center at George Mason University argued that the current FAA regulations on sonic booms were not only lagging behind the state of aeronautical technology, but actually stifling further innovation.

“An affordable and commercially viable supersonic transport is unlikely to spring from the mind of a single engineer, much less a committee of bureaucrats. Like the subsonic aviation industry that came before it, a supersonic aviation industry will require trial and error, competition, and a market discovery process to lead firms up the learning curve to commercial viability,” the paper states. “If we want rapid economic growth, we must continually question the limitations we impose upon ourselves and press forward the boundary of what is possible.”

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Florida Wildlife Agency Tracked Critics Using Law Enforcement Database


Katrina Shadix FWC | Bear Warriors/YouTube

Florida’s state wildlife law enforcement agency used a police database to snoop on more than a dozen of its critics, two Florida news outlets reported, raising concerns of First Amendment retaliation.

The Orlando Sentinel and the Miami Herald both published stories last weekend revealing that the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) secretly investigated outspoken opponents of the agency’s policies using the state’s Driver and Vehicle Information Database (DAVID), access to which is tightly restricted to legitimate law enforcement purposes.

Targets of FWC searches included a documentary filmmaker, Brent Fannin, who accused the agency of failing to protect endangered gopher tortoises. Another was Katrina Shadix, who fought the FWC’s decision to allow bear hunts and successfully sued the state over a pollution-related manatee die-off.

“We found out that they were illegally accessing our information, and it was these people who have spoken out against their policy and practices,” Shadix said. “They’re breaking a federal law to strip us of our constitutional rights, which is crazy.”

According to news reports, an anonymous tipster emailed Fannin claiming that the FWC was tracking him. Fannin filed a records request with the Florida Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles revealing that two FWC employees had pulled his driving records seven times in April and June of 2025.

When other activists filed similar requests, they discovered the FWC had also pulled their personal information from DAVID. The Herald reported that the FWC accessed Shadix’s driving records 17 times between 2023 and 2025.

“Many of the searches correspond to days after individuals posted online or spoke publicly against FWC,” the Sentinel reported. “Under the section which labels the reason listed for the search, it says ‘Criminal Investigation.'”

Longtime Florida reporter and columnist Craig Pittman reported that so far 16 environmental activists have learned that their driving records were pulled by the FWC.

Not all were typical activists. One was an elected Republican property appraiser, who is suing the agency for violations of civil rights and federal privacy laws.

An FWC spokesperson said in a statement to Reason that the Herald and Sentinel stories “mischaracterized the FWC Division of Law Enforcement (DLE)” and that “claims that the FWC misuses or weaponizes its law enforcement authority are false.”

“To clarify, DLE staff do not access Driver and Vehicle Information Database (DAVID) records for all attendees before public meetings,” the statement continued.

However, the FWC statement went on to say that “threats concerning the harming of officers, staff and Commissioners are taken seriously and is why it’s imperative that law enforcement works to ensure public safety by monitoring, preventing, and assessing potential security risks to maintain safe public spaces.”

The spokesperson declined to say whether Shadix, Fannin, and others were the subject of threat investigations or provide examples of any threats.

Government watchdogs across the state are not willing to give the Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ administration the benefit of the doubt.

If there is evidence, Orlando Sentinel columnist Scott Maxwell wrote, “Prove it. Show the credible justification for why the FWC conducted every single one of the criminal-database snooping checks it ran on people who’d dared to criticize the agency.”

Although DeSantis declared the state “Free Florida,” there have been repeated instances of what appears to be blatant First Amendment retaliation by Florida officials against residents.

Reason recently obtained public records showing that high-level officials at the Florida Department of Financial Services launched a threat investigation against a 77-year-old man for sending a postcard to Florida Chief Financial Officer Blaise Ingoglia that simply read, “You lack values!”

Free Speech groups also heavily opposed a bill signed into law earlier this year by DeSantis allowing the state to designate groups as domestic terror organizations.

Earlier this year, a Miami Beach woman was questioned by two police detectives over a Facebook post criticizing the Miami Beach mayor’s stance on Israel and Palestine.

Tampa Bay Times opinion columnist Joe Murphy wrote that the FWC searches were “yet another deeply and profoundly dismaying betrayal of public trust.”

“When citizens can’t use constitutionally protected free speech to speak up for their community, or for wild Florida, without fear of investigation and possible reprisal, it undermines the most sacred principles of our democracy,” he added.

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