Global Inflation Scare: Chinese Exporters Hike Prices As Iran War Triggers Ethane Shortage, Plastics Crunch

Global Inflation Scare: Chinese Exporters Hike Prices As Iran War Triggers Ethane Shortage, Plastics Crunch

Chinese exporters are finally passing on the pain – right as they’re experiencing a major shortage of a key industrial material. After years of cutting prices amid overcapacity and cutthroat competition, manufacturers are now raising prices on everything from swimsuits and ski suits to medical syringes and air conditioners. The culprit: the Iran war’s energy shock, which has sent oil-linked input costs skyrocketing and is now rippling straight through to global store shelves.

Customs data compiled by Trade Data Monitor and analyzed by Bloomberg reveal sharp year-on-year price jumps in March across more than a dozen categories of household goods – the first sustained reversal in a disinflationary trend that had helped keep a lid on inflation from the U.S. to Europe for nearly three years.

I held off raising prices for as long as I could in March, but in the end I had no choice,” said Pang Ling, sales manager at a Shanghai-based medical catheter maker. “I panicked watching plastic costs climb almost every single day.”

Products reliant on rubber, plastic, and oil-derived chemicals were hit hardest. Syringes saw prices surge as much as 20%. Synthetic-fiber goods – including swimsuits, women’s trousers, and ski suits – rose in the low- to mid-single digits as polyester and fiber suppliers hiked prices daily. Home appliances faced a double squeeze from higher metals and semiconductor costs. Even as some sectors like toys cut prices under weak demand, the broader picture is clear: the era of ultra-cheap Chinese goods is ending.

The numbers tell the story. China’s export prices had been falling steadily since May 2023, shaving an estimated 0.3–0.5 percentage points off headline inflation in advanced economies, according to Capital Economics. That buffer is now vanishing. Bloomberg Economics says above-3% inflation in 2026 is “back in play” across the euro area, U.S., and U.K. – a dramatic reversal from pre-war forecasts of cooling prices. Goldman Sachs expects overall Chinese export prices to turn positive as soon as March data, due out around April 25.

A 10% rise in oil costs typically lifts Chinese export prices by about 50 basis points over the following year, with the peak impact hitting four to five months later, Goldman estimates. The full effect hasn’t hit consumers yet – many March shipments were ordered weeks or months earlier – but the pipeline is filling with higher costs.

The Ethane Shock: Why Plastic Prices Are Set to Soar

Nowhere is the pressure more acute – or more politically explosive – than in plastics.

As we noted earlier this week, China is facing a severe ethane shortage that is about to supercharge costs across the entire plastics supply chain. Ethane, a natural gas liquid, is the primary feedstock for producing ethylene, the essential building block for plastics used in everything from medical catheters and syringes to clothing fibers, packaging, and consumer goods.

For years, China relied heavily on naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from the Middle East. In February, just before the war, more than 50% of China’s naphtha imports and over 40% of its LPG purchases came from Persian Gulf nations. That supply line has now been severed for as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. China holds massive strategic petroleum reserves – 1.5 billion barrels of crude – but it has virtually no stockpiles of naphtha or ethane. Its petrochemical industry is suddenly, dangerously exposed.

The International Energy Agency warned last week that “petrochemical feedstocks display the most immediate effects of the war by far,” with Asian supply chains thrown into “disarray.” Naphtha-fed crackers still account for 57% of China’s ethylene capacity, compared with just 16% for ethane-based units.

Desperate for alternatives, Chinese petrochemical producers are turning to the United States in record volumes. Shipments of U.S. ethane are expected to hit an all-time high of 800,000 tons in April – roughly 60% above the monthly average – according to Chinese consultant JLC. Some crackers can switch to ethane, helping offset the naphtha and LPG shortfall.

But this lifeline comes at a steep and rising price. Ethane has become the preferred feedstock because it is cheaper and more stable than crude-linked naphtha right now – profits from ethane-based ethylene were tenfold those of naphtha as of April 15, JLC data show. New capacity, including Wanhua Chemical Group’s ethane unit and Sinopec Ineos’s multi-feed cracker, has also boosted demand.

A tanker docked at liquid petroleum gas-ethane storage tanks. Photographer: Nathan Laine/Bloomberg

The result? Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) – Pang’s key input – surged as much as 80% in March from pre-war levels and remains about 50% higher even after a partial pullback. With naphtha alternatives cut off and ethane imports surging, plastic resin and downstream product prices are poised to climb sharply in the coming months. Competition and weak domestic demand may limit how much Chinese firms can pass on, but the input-cost pressure is now structural, not temporary.

The timing adds a geopolitical layer. China’s buying spree comes just weeks before President Donald Trump’s planned mid-May visit to Beijing. U.S. energy exports are expected to feature prominently in talks — especially if the Iran conflict drags on. One year ago, during the height of U.S.-China tariff tensions, analysts openly debated the mutual dependencies: America’s need for Chinese rare earths versus China’s near-total reliance on U.S. ethane for its plastics industry. 

Tyler Durden
Sat, 04/25/2026 – 08:45

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EU Ministers Fail To Suspend EU-Israeli Cooperation Agreement; Germany Calls ‘Inappropriate’

EU Ministers Fail To Suspend EU-Israeli Cooperation Agreement; Germany Calls ‘Inappropriate’

Via Remix News,

A move to end the EU-Israel Association Agreement has been struck down, led by objections from Germany, Austria, and Italy. The accord, in existence since 2000, has served as the framework for EU-Israeli relations pertaining to both trade and foreign policy, with a key pillar being Israel’s access to the markets of EU member states.

13 October 2025, Berlin: The flags of Israel, the EU and Germany fly in front of the Berlin House of Representatives. Following the release of the hostages held in Gaza, the House of Representatives also raised the flag of Israel as a sign of solidarity with the state of Israel and its people. Photo: Jens Kalaene/dpa (Photo by Jens Kalaene/picture alliance via Getty Images)

Last week, Spain, Ireland and Slovenia wrote a letter to the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas, citing Israel’s decisions by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as well as laws passed by its parliament and actions taken by its military.

It cited, most recently, the death penalty approved by the Israeli parliament as evidence of “systematic persecution, oppression, violence and discrimination exerted against the Palestinian population.”

“In such a grave situation, we call on the European Union to uphold its moral and political responsibility, and to defend the very core values that have underpinned the European project since its foundation,” they wrote.

Going even further, the letter highlighted that Israel has essentially broken its agreement with the European Union. “Not only a grave violation of fundamental human rights, but also a step backwards in Israel’s commitment to democratic principles, as underlined by your March 31 statement, and therefore a violation of Article 2 of the EU-Israel Association Agreement.”

Spain has cited Article 2 for more than two years to take action against Israel and attempt to invalidate the agreement.

“Bold and immediate action is required, and all actions must remain on the table. The European Union can no longer remain on the sidelines,” the letter concluded.

However, the ministers gathered at the  Foreign Affairs Council meeting in Luxembourg ultimately rejected the proposal.

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul called any move to suspend the agreement “inappropriate,” reports Politico, joined by his Austrian counterpart in a push for “critical, constructive dialogue.” 

Before the meeting, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani told reporters that “There are neither the numerical nor the political conditions” for such a measure to be taken.  

A partial suspension requiring majority approval would also not have passed, given Italy and Germany’s objections. According to Politico, Kallas did raise the possibility of targeted measures that do not dismantle the wider trade agreement and do not require unanimity, with Tajani reportedly supporting her on this. “I believe it is better to sanction individually those responsible, I am thinking of violent settlers,” he stated.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 04/25/2026 – 08:10

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Eighth Circuit Upholds Ban on Trespassing for Surveillance Purposes

From PETA, Inc. v. Reynolds, decided Thursday by the Eighth Circuit (Judge Steven Grasz, joined by Judges James Loken and Raymond Gruender):

[Iowa’s] general trespass statute defines “trespass” to include “[e]ntering or remaining upon or in property … after being notified or requested to abstain from entering or to remove or vacate therefrom by the owner ….” “A person has been notified or requested to abstain from entering or remaining upon or in the property … if … [t]he person has been notified to abstain from entering or remaining upon or in property personally, either orally or in writing ….” When an ordinary trespass does not result in bodily injury or property damage exceeding $300, the offense is a “simple misdemeanor” and is punished by a fine between $105 and $855 and up to 30 days of imprisonment.

In 2021, Iowa decided its general trespass statute was not deterring trespassers from unlawfully entering private property to record their trespasses. So it enacted § 727.8A to create a new “trespass-surveillance” offense, which it treated more harshly than ordinary trespass. For instance, under § 727.8A,

[a] person committing a trespass as defined in section 716.7 who knowingly places or uses a camera or electronic device that transmits or records images or data while the device is on the trespassed property commits an aggravated misdemeanor for a first offense and a class “D” felony for a second or subsequent offense.

Iowa punishes aggravated misdemeanors with a fine between $855 and $8,540 and up to two years of imprisonment, and class D felonies with a fine between $1,025 and $10,245 and up to five years of imprisonment.

Two … animal-welfare groups, including ICCI [Iowa Citizens for Community Improvement], developed as-applied challenges on remand, contending the statute’s prohibition against using cameras while trespassing chills their members’ speech when applied to prevent them from recording on private property that is otherwise open to the public after being asked to leave but not to stop recording. Relevant here, ICCI alleges its members intentionally record themselves committing ordinary trespasses, “particularly … at political and corporate sites,” to draw attention to their activities. ICCI alleges its members are willing to suffer the consequences for ordinary trespass but the heightened penalties for trespass-surveillance have chilled their speech….

Whether the First Amendment protects ICCI’s members’ speech in this context is an open question. We know “freedom of speech includes expression through the making and sharing of videos” in some instances. But the Supreme Court “has never held that a trespasser … may exercise general rights of free speech on property privately owned and used nondiscriminatorily for private purposes ….” Lloyd Corp. v. Tanner (1972); see also Hudgens v. NLRB (1976) (holding picketers “did not have a First Amendment right to enter [a privately owned] shopping center for the purpose of advertising their strike”). We need not resolve this question because even assuming recording while trespassing implicates the First Amendment, ICCI’s as-applied challenge fails.

[Section] 727.8A is “reviewed under intermediate scrutiny because [it is] a content-neutral time, place, and manner restriction.” “To survive intermediate scrutiny, ‘a regulation need not be the least speech-restrictive means of advancing the Government’s interests.'” “Rather, the standard is satisfied so long as the regulation promotes a substantial government interest that would be achieved less effectively absent the regulation and does not burden substantially more speech than is necessary to further that interest.” …

Iowa has an important government interest in protecting its citizens’ property and privacy rights…. “[D]iminution of privacy and a violation of the right to exclude [are] legally cognizable harms.” … Section 727.8A promotes this interest. For example, in arguing that the statute chills its speech, ICCI admitted its members no longer record while trespassing because they are unwilling to risk the heightened penalties for trespass surveillance, and in arguing its injury is redressable, ICCI stated its members will resume their misconduct if we enjoin § 727.8A. Consequently, we conclude § 727.8A “promotes a substantial government interest that would be achieved less effectively absent the regulation” and turn to tailoring….

Iowa’s interest in preventing trespass-surveillance is particularly strong because recordings can be disseminated widely and indefinitely, exacerbating the harm ordinary trespassers cause to property and privacy rights, and § 727.8A is narrowly “tailored to target th[is] harm and redress th[is] evil,” as its “restrictions on the use of a camera only apply … when there has first been an unlawful trespass …. ” …

ICCI alleges its “members travel to spaces generally open to the public,” “disruptively protest,” “are inevitably asked to leave,” and “intentionally record themselves trespassing” “during these encounters.” ICCI’s members then send “the video recordings to media outlets to increase their advocacy efforts [and] draw attention to their message.” ICCI posts this content on its website and social media “to communicate the message of the protests to ICCI’s members and the public, and thereby encourage people to join the work.” To give a few examples, ICCI alleges its “members have been arrested for trespassing in a number of settings: blocking a construction site, protesting in a bank lobby, and protesting in the offices of elected officials.” Based on ICCI’s own allegations, its members plainly want to engage in the exact misconduct § 727.8A is narrowly tailored to proscribe. Consequently, ICCI’s as-applied challenge fails….

ICCI contends applying the statute does not further Iowa’s interest in protecting property and privacy rights when a property owner objects to its members’ presence but not to their recording. This is nonsensical. When a property owner uses his “power to exclude” by ejecting a trespasser—”one of the most treasured strands in [his] bundle of property rights”—he necessarily exercises his lesser right to stop the trespasser from unlawfully recording on his property….

ICCI [also] suggests Iowa’s interests in protecting property and privacy rights are not implicated when the locations at issue are otherwise open to the public. But property owners forfeit neither their right to exclude nor to control their property by opening it to the public for a certain purpose….

ICCI posits the officials failed to produce any evidence demonstrating Iowa needed to proscribe all the speech covered by the statute to achieve its interests. This argument lacks merit because § 727.8A is subject to intermediate rather than strict scrutiny, as discussed above…. “[A] regulation need not be the least speech-restrictive means of advancing the Government’s interests” to survive intermediate scrutiny …. {As ICCI points out, under the Fourth Circuit’s PETA decision, it is “a nonnegotiable requirement” of intermediate scrutiny that there be “‘actual evidence’ in the legislative record that lesser restrictions will not do.” But we are not bound to follow PETA and will not do so because it is inconsistent with the intermediate scrutiny standard outlined in TikTok and Turner Broadcasting Systems.}

In sum, … [ICCI] members’ recordings implicate Iowa’s important state interest in protecting owner’s property and privacy rights, these interests would be served less effectively without the statute, and the statute does not proscribe substantially more speech than necessary to achieve Iowa’s legitimate ends.

Breanne Alyssa Stoltze argued on behalf of the state; Jacob John Larson was with her on the briefs.

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Eighth Circuit Upholds Ban on Trespassing for Surveillance Purposes

From PETA, Inc. v. Reynolds, decided Thursday by the Eighth Circuit (Judge Steven Grasz, joined by Judges James Loken and Raymond Gruender):

[Iowa’s] general trespass statute defines “trespass” to include “[e]ntering or remaining upon or in property … after being notified or requested to abstain from entering or to remove or vacate therefrom by the owner ….” “A person has been notified or requested to abstain from entering or remaining upon or in the property … if … [t]he person has been notified to abstain from entering or remaining upon or in property personally, either orally or in writing ….” When an ordinary trespass does not result in bodily injury or property damage exceeding $300, the offense is a “simple misdemeanor” and is punished by a fine between $105 and $855 and up to 30 days of imprisonment.

In 2021, Iowa decided its general trespass statute was not deterring trespassers from unlawfully entering private property to record their trespasses. So it enacted § 727.8A to create a new “trespass-surveillance” offense, which it treated more harshly than ordinary trespass. For instance, under § 727.8A,

[a] person committing a trespass as defined in section 716.7 who knowingly places or uses a camera or electronic device that transmits or records images or data while the device is on the trespassed property commits an aggravated misdemeanor for a first offense and a class “D” felony for a second or subsequent offense.

Iowa punishes aggravated misdemeanors with a fine between $855 and $8,540 and up to two years of imprisonment, and class D felonies with a fine between $1,025 and $10,245 and up to five years of imprisonment.

Two … animal-welfare groups, including ICCI [Iowa Citizens for Community Improvement], developed as-applied challenges on remand, contending the statute’s prohibition against using cameras while trespassing chills their members’ speech when applied to prevent them from recording on private property that is otherwise open to the public after being asked to leave but not to stop recording. Relevant here, ICCI alleges its members intentionally record themselves committing ordinary trespasses, “particularly … at political and corporate sites,” to draw attention to their activities. ICCI alleges its members are willing to suffer the consequences for ordinary trespass but the heightened penalties for trespass-surveillance have chilled their speech….

Whether the First Amendment protects ICCI’s members’ speech in this context is an open question. We know “freedom of speech includes expression through the making and sharing of videos” in some instances. But the Supreme Court “has never held that a trespasser … may exercise general rights of free speech on property privately owned and used nondiscriminatorily for private purposes ….” Lloyd Corp. v. Tanner (1972); see also Hudgens v. NLRB (1976) (holding picketers “did not have a First Amendment right to enter [a privately owned] shopping center for the purpose of advertising their strike”). We need not resolve this question because even assuming recording while trespassing implicates the First Amendment, ICCI’s as-applied challenge fails.

[Section] 727.8A is “reviewed under intermediate scrutiny because [it is] a content-neutral time, place, and manner restriction.” “To survive intermediate scrutiny, ‘a regulation need not be the least speech-restrictive means of advancing the Government’s interests.'” “Rather, the standard is satisfied so long as the regulation promotes a substantial government interest that would be achieved less effectively absent the regulation and does not burden substantially more speech than is necessary to further that interest.” …

Iowa has an important government interest in protecting its citizens’ property and privacy rights…. “[D]iminution of privacy and a violation of the right to exclude [are] legally cognizable harms.” … Section 727.8A promotes this interest. For example, in arguing that the statute chills its speech, ICCI admitted its members no longer record while trespassing because they are unwilling to risk the heightened penalties for trespass surveillance, and in arguing its injury is redressable, ICCI stated its members will resume their misconduct if we enjoin § 727.8A. Consequently, we conclude § 727.8A “promotes a substantial government interest that would be achieved less effectively absent the regulation” and turn to tailoring….

Iowa’s interest in preventing trespass-surveillance is particularly strong because recordings can be disseminated widely and indefinitely, exacerbating the harm ordinary trespassers cause to property and privacy rights, and § 727.8A is narrowly “tailored to target th[is] harm and redress th[is] evil,” as its “restrictions on the use of a camera only apply … when there has first been an unlawful trespass …. ” …

ICCI alleges its “members travel to spaces generally open to the public,” “disruptively protest,” “are inevitably asked to leave,” and “intentionally record themselves trespassing” “during these encounters.” ICCI’s members then send “the video recordings to media outlets to increase their advocacy efforts [and] draw attention to their message.” ICCI posts this content on its website and social media “to communicate the message of the protests to ICCI’s members and the public, and thereby encourage people to join the work.” To give a few examples, ICCI alleges its “members have been arrested for trespassing in a number of settings: blocking a construction site, protesting in a bank lobby, and protesting in the offices of elected officials.” Based on ICCI’s own allegations, its members plainly want to engage in the exact misconduct § 727.8A is narrowly tailored to proscribe. Consequently, ICCI’s as-applied challenge fails….

ICCI contends applying the statute does not further Iowa’s interest in protecting property and privacy rights when a property owner objects to its members’ presence but not to their recording. This is nonsensical. When a property owner uses his “power to exclude” by ejecting a trespasser—”one of the most treasured strands in [his] bundle of property rights”—he necessarily exercises his lesser right to stop the trespasser from unlawfully recording on his property….

ICCI [also] suggests Iowa’s interests in protecting property and privacy rights are not implicated when the locations at issue are otherwise open to the public. But property owners forfeit neither their right to exclude nor to control their property by opening it to the public for a certain purpose….

ICCI posits the officials failed to produce any evidence demonstrating Iowa needed to proscribe all the speech covered by the statute to achieve its interests. This argument lacks merit because § 727.8A is subject to intermediate rather than strict scrutiny, as discussed above…. “[A] regulation need not be the least speech-restrictive means of advancing the Government’s interests” to survive intermediate scrutiny …. {As ICCI points out, under the Fourth Circuit’s PETA decision, it is “a nonnegotiable requirement” of intermediate scrutiny that there be “‘actual evidence’ in the legislative record that lesser restrictions will not do.” But we are not bound to follow PETA and will not do so because it is inconsistent with the intermediate scrutiny standard outlined in TikTok and Turner Broadcasting Systems.}

In sum, … [ICCI] members’ recordings implicate Iowa’s important state interest in protecting owner’s property and privacy rights, these interests would be served less effectively without the statute, and the statute does not proscribe substantially more speech than necessary to achieve Iowa’s legitimate ends.

Breanne Alyssa Stoltze argued on behalf of the state; Jacob John Larson was with her on the briefs.

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The EU ‘Democracy Shield’ Is The End Of Freedom In Europe

The EU ‘Democracy Shield’ Is The End Of Freedom In Europe

Via Remix News,

The year 2026 will go down in the history of European integration as a special moment. The European Union, under the banner of protecting democracy, has begun systematically restricting freedom of speech and real political pluralism. Thus, it embarks on the well-trodden historical paths of every authoritarian regime, resorting to violence and censorship as public support wanes.

A report recently published by the Ordo Iuris Institute leaves no doubt: we are dealing with a project for a profound overhaul of the public sphere that will primarily target conservative communities, including Catholics.

Jerzy Kwasniewski, the head of the conservative institute Ordo Iuris. (AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski)

The new EU mechanisms, ironically referred to as the “Democracy Shield,” are not a single piece of legislation. This is a coordinated regulatory system—from the Digital Services Act (DSA), through codes of conduct on “hate speech” and “disinformation,” to the regulation on political advertising. Their common denominator is the now-official departure from the European cult of free speech and its replacement with a system of preventive restrictions, in the name of… true freedom and democracy.

The European Commission claims that its aim is to create a “safe” information space in which “reliable” messages are meant to dominate, that is, in practice, narratives aligned with the liberal consensus . The problem is that the criteria for the EU’s “credibility,” for what is considered prohibited “disinformation,” and—what is particularly harmful—”divisive speech” are extremely vague and prone to ideological interpretation. As a result, it will not even be independent courts, but online platforms cooperating with non-governmental organizations selected by Brussels that will decide what content may reach citizens of the European Union. Including Polish citizens.

This system is multi-stage. First—mechanisms for reporting and removing content that, in practice, incentivize rapid takedowns, even at the expense of freedom of expression. Secondly—a labeling system under which statements labeled as “unverified,” “misleading,” or “political” are subject to mandatory restrictions on platforms such as Facebook or X. Thirdly—there is to be algorithmic intervention that limits the reach of content deemed problematic.

It is worth emphasizing the role of so-called trusted flaggers and fact-checker networks. It is precisely these entities, often financed with public funds from the European Union or the Member States and ideologically uniform, that gain a privileged position in the content moderation process. In practice, this means cleverly delegating censorship to entities that are not subject to any democratic oversight.

Even more troubling are the regulations concerning political advertising. The definition of “political speech” has been framed so broadly that it encompasses not only the activities of political parties but also public awareness campaigns concerning the protection of life, the family, or national identity. This means that Catholic pro-life organizations or movements defending marriage as the union between a woman and a man may be subjected to restrictive requirements and even sanctions. Even now, our own Ordo Iuris Institute and Center for Life and Family, as well as our friends from Polonia Christiana’s PCH24 news portal and their editorial team should start preparing to implement a “replacement language.” The censorship game, well known here in Poland from the communist era, is making a comeback.

At the same time, restrictions on the targeting and funding of political messages make it much more difficult to reach voters. In practice, the largest platforms, such as Facebook, have already stopped running “political” ads to avoid legal risk. It is no longer possible to freely promote petitions opposing abortion or same-sex unions there.

The Polish political context cannot be ignored. The introduction of these instruments specifically in 2026, just before the crucial parliamentary campaign in Poland, is no coincidence. Restricting the reach of conservative speech, making it harder to organize public-interest campaigns, and selectively labeling content as “problematic” will have a real impact on election results.

From the perspective of socially engaged Catholics, this is particularly dangerous. Unequivocal assessments concerning the protection of life from conception, the indissolubility of marriage, the condemnation of the aberrations of gender ideology, and even clear support for national sovereignty within the European Union will increasingly be classified as “controversial” or “divisive.” In the new regulatory model, such content may be restricted not directly—through a ban—but through invisible mechanisms of reach reduction and stigmatization.

This does not, of course, mean that the state has no right to combat crimes online or to protect citizens from real threats. The problem is that the European Union has crossed the line between protection and control, between security and social engineering.

Therefore today, more than ever, courage is needed to defend freedom and the right to publicly proclaim one’s faith. Not as a privilege for the select few, but as the foundation of a healthy society. If we allow, under the pretext of combating “disinformation,” the voices of those who defend life, the family, and sovereignty to be curtailed, democracy will quickly become a grim dictatorship hidden behind a facade of apparent diversity and tolerance.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 04/25/2026 – 07:00

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A $33 Burger? As New York City Eyes $30 Minimum Wage, Restaurants Brace for Impact


A man hands a waiter a tip | Dragoscondrea/Mikael Damkier/Dreamstime

Zohran Mamdani rode to victory as New York City’s mayor in part due to his audacious campaign promises around freezing the rent and offering free bus service to Big Apple residents. But perhaps no campaign promise of Mamdani’s was as bold as his “$30 by ’30” plan, which called for increasing the city’s minimum wage to $30 by 2030.

Now that Mamdani is in office, New York City Council members have introduced a bill to turn $30 by ’30 from a catchy campaign slogan into an economic reality.

But while the top-line number of $30 has received most of the attention, the fine print in the legislation may be even more alarming: It would eliminate what’s known as the tipped-wage credit for restaurants in NYC, meaning that mom-and-pop restaurants—some of the city’s smallest businesses—would find themselves on the hook for paying workers $30 an hour. Restauranteurs around the city are sounding the alarm, warning that the bill could pose a dire threat to NYC’s famed dining scene.

Restaurants operate under a unique wage structure in most locales across America. Rather than being subject to the traditional minimum wage, tipped employees at these establishments receive part of their compensation in the form of gratuities. A legal structure called the tipped-wage credit allows such restaurant workers to be paid below the minimum wage pre-tips; if a server’s tips still leave them below the full minimum wage, then restaurant owners are responsible for making up the difference.

The tip credit system has been in place for 60 years, allowing restaurant workers to make upwards of $30 or $40 an hour—or more—once tips are factored in, while also giving owners a way to control labor costs in an industry notorious for its tight margins.

Progressive cities like Washington, D.C. and Chicago have experimented with eliminating the tip credit system in recent years, and the results have been nothing short of disastrous. After D.C. scrapped its tip credit and required servers to be paid a traditional minimum wage, restaurant worker earnings reportedly fell in the District as restaurants cut jobs and reduced hours for staff.

Restaurants also responded by raising dining prices in the form of new “service fees,” and D.C.’s progressive city council was ultimately forced to partially reverse the tip credit’s phaseout. The experience in Chicago was similar.

But whereas D.C. and Chicago sought to scrap the tip credit system and replace it with a minimum wage around $16 to $17 per hour, NYC’s plan would nearly double this wage rate to $30. A group of about 40 independent restaurants in the Hell’s Kitchen neighborhood—known for its world-leading dining scene—are now laying out in detail what this increased minimum would mean for diners who frequent their restaurants.

By 2031, they say, a $21 hamburger would become $33; a $14 glass of wine would increase to $22; and a $24 salmon salad would spike to $37. Worse yet, these prices don’t even factor in taxes, and they are only based on a $19.33 per hour minimum wage. (The proposed legislation would gradually raise servers’ hourly wage over time, until it eventually reaches $30 per hour after 2031).

The wage hike could force restaurants to cut back on employment, too. “Places will have to cut their staff in half and use QR codes on the table,” said Sean Hayden, an owner of numerous Hell’s Kitchen restaurants, in an interview with W42ST. “It’ll be like airport service.”

These restaurant owners are hardly profit-grabbing monopolists. One establishment reported that its tipped staff members currently earn over $41 an hour on average when combining an $11.35 hourly wage and tips.

Their warnings are not merely apocalyptic doomcasting, either. Los Angeles voted in May of last year to raise the minimum wage for hotel workers to $30 an hour by 2028. The American Hotel and Lodging Association has since reported that 88 percent of hotels have experienced layoffs or reduced hours and just under 60 percent have reduced overtime availability as well as worker benefits and amenities. While various factors play into these reductions, over 90 percent of hotel owners cite the rising labor costs as a key component.

An Oxford Economics analysis forecasted that L.A.’s hotel wage mandate would lead to a reduction of over 14,000 jobs in the city. L.A.’s gradual minimum wage hikes for hotels over the years—starting in 2015—have already led to notable reductions in employment. The City of Angels can ill afford such a hit to its hospitality industry ahead of hosting the 2026 World Cup and 2028 Olympics.

For NYC’s part, Mamdani has yet to officially endorse the new legislation, although his campaign track record strongly points toward him ultimately backing it. If he does, $33 hamburgers might become the norm sooner than later.

The post A $33 Burger? As New York City Eyes $30 Minimum Wage, Restaurants Brace for Impact appeared first on Reason.com.

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A $33 Burger? As New York City Eyes $30 Minimum Wage, Restaurants Brace for Impact


A man hands a waiter a tip | Dragoscondrea/Mikael Damkier/Dreamstime

Zohran Mamdani rode to victory as New York City’s mayor in part due to his audacious campaign promises around freezing the rent and offering free bus service to Big Apple residents. But perhaps no campaign promise of Mamdani’s was as bold as his “$30 by ’30” plan, which called for increasing the city’s minimum wage to $30 by 2030.

Now that Mamdani is in office, New York City Council members have introduced a bill to turn $30 by ’30 from a catchy campaign slogan into an economic reality.

But while the top-line number of $30 has received most of the attention, the fine print in the legislation may be even more alarming: It would eliminate what’s known as the tipped-wage credit for restaurants in NYC, meaning that mom-and-pop restaurants—some of the city’s smallest businesses—would find themselves on the hook for paying workers $30 an hour. Restauranteurs around the city are sounding the alarm, warning that the bill could pose a dire threat to NYC’s famed dining scene.

Restaurants operate under a unique wage structure in most locales across America. Rather than being subject to the traditional minimum wage, tipped employees at these establishments receive part of their compensation in the form of gratuities. A legal structure called the tipped-wage credit allows such restaurant workers to be paid below the minimum wage pre-tips; if a server’s tips still leave them below the full minimum wage, then restaurant owners are responsible for making up the difference.

The tip credit system has been in place for 60 years, allowing restaurant workers to make upwards of $30 or $40 an hour—or more—once tips are factored in, while also giving owners a way to control labor costs in an industry notorious for its tight margins.

Progressive cities like Washington, D.C. and Chicago have experimented with eliminating the tip credit system in recent years, and the results have been nothing short of disastrous. After D.C. scrapped its tip credit and required servers to be paid a traditional minimum wage, restaurant worker earnings reportedly fell in the District as restaurants cut jobs and reduced hours for staff.

Restaurants also responded by raising dining prices in the form of new “service fees,” and D.C.’s progressive city council was ultimately forced to partially reverse the tip credit’s phaseout. The experience in Chicago was similar.

But whereas D.C. and Chicago sought to scrap the tip credit system and replace it with a minimum wage around $16 to $17 per hour, NYC’s plan would nearly double this wage rate to $30. A group of about 40 independent restaurants in the Hell’s Kitchen neighborhood—known for its world-leading dining scene—are now laying out in detail what this increased minimum would mean for diners who frequent their restaurants.

By 2031, they say, a $21 hamburger would become $33; a $14 glass of wine would increase to $22; and a $24 salmon salad would spike to $37. Worse yet, these prices don’t even factor in taxes, and they are only based on a $19.33 per hour minimum wage. (The proposed legislation would gradually raise servers’ hourly wage over time, until it eventually reaches $30 per hour after 2031).

The wage hike could force restaurants to cut back on employment, too. “Places will have to cut their staff in half and use QR codes on the table,” said Sean Hayden, an owner of numerous Hell’s Kitchen restaurants, in an interview with W42ST. “It’ll be like airport service.”

These restaurant owners are hardly profit-grabbing monopolists. One establishment reported that its tipped staff members currently earn over $41 an hour on average when combining an $11.35 hourly wage and tips.

Their warnings are not merely apocalyptic doomcasting, either. Los Angeles voted in May of last year to raise the minimum wage for hotel workers to $30 an hour by 2028. The American Hotel and Lodging Association has since reported that 88 percent of hotels have experienced layoffs or reduced hours and just under 60 percent have reduced overtime availability as well as worker benefits and amenities. While various factors play into these reductions, over 90 percent of hotel owners cite the rising labor costs as a key component.

An Oxford Economics analysis forecasted that L.A.’s hotel wage mandate would lead to a reduction of over 14,000 jobs in the city. L.A.’s gradual minimum wage hikes for hotels over the years—starting in 2015—have already led to notable reductions in employment. The City of Angels can ill afford such a hit to its hospitality industry ahead of hosting the 2026 World Cup and 2028 Olympics.

For NYC’s part, Mamdani has yet to officially endorse the new legislation, although his campaign track record strongly points toward him ultimately backing it. If he does, $33 hamburgers might become the norm sooner than later.

The post A $33 Burger? As New York City Eyes $30 Minimum Wage, Restaurants Brace for Impact appeared first on Reason.com.

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Hobohemian Rhapsody


Book cover for 'Front Street' by Brian Barth | Illustration: IMAGO/Sabine Gudath/Newscom/Brian Barth

Front Street: Resistance and Rebirth in the Tent Cities of Techlandia, by Brian Barth, Astra House, 287 pages, $29

One lesson of Front Street, Brian Barth’s book of immersive reporting from the sprawling homeless encampments of Silicon Valley, is that there is no full-bore solution to the problems presented by the homeless. The unhoused, and the larger community they aggravate, have only least-worst options.

Barth’s well-reported stories stem from three sprawling multiblock or multiacre tent cities, chronicling the types of people who compose them and the communities—troubled communities, but in some ways surprisingly effective ones—that they form. All three are eventually bulldozed away. But such destructive reactions don’t make the homeless disappear, even if they solve short-term problems for neighbors by making them fade from sight at least temporarily (and at least on that particular site, though they often regroup a mile away).

Barth is on the side of the subjects (and eventual friends and frenemies) he meets in these makeshift minicities. Yet he’s an honest observer of what’s awful about them: the rampant theft, the arson, the screaming, the hypodermic needles, the dead rats. These hobohemias are rife with things the modal taxpaying denizens of wealthy and expensive enclaves such as Cupertino and San Jose don’t want to have around.

Nonetheless, Barth concludes that it’s better to let such sprawling encampments exist and evolve, rather than destroying them and attempting to relocate the inhabitants at great expense and trouble (not to mention destruction of property and disruption of lives). Better both for the homeless and for the culture that would rather they didn’t exist.

***

The book’s three tent cities are Wood Street Commons, in a decaying industrial sector of Oakland; the Crash Zone, near the airport in San Jose; and Wolfe Camp, abutting Apple headquarters in Cupertino. Some people who end up in these places want a normal life with a normal job and a normal apartment. But the characters Barth brings most vividly to life want nothing to do with being shoved into cubicle-sized tiny homes, repurposed crummy motels, trailer-filled parking lots, or other proposed solutions to homelessness.

In the words of Dave, one Wolfe Camp resident: “Affordable housing sucks because not only are you squished in this little box, you have to do all these things on time and in a certain order. I don’t see that as attractive. For some of us, coming out of homelessness is worse than being in it.”

The more articulate of Barth’s subjects prefer the barely functional anarchy of their camps, complete with unsettling threats of violence and lack of such amenities as running water or garbage collection, but also a surprising amount of camaraderie, community, mutual aid, impromptu “social services” from the more high-functioning homeless to their lower-functioning comrades, and a sense of family from people whose problems often began with their utter alienation from the families they were born into.

Who wants to live indoors if they can’t cook their own food, bring in their own furniture, or have any guests? One of Barth’s central characters, a former property manager in his 50s who can be charismatic and compelling but has a self-destructive impulsive streak, reports that he has had friends who just rushed ahead to drug-induced suicide when their lives were reduced to that.

A single woman tells Barth she feels safer in a community of people who know and care about her than in a barbed-wire fence with guards. Such camps are decidedly no paradise, Barth reports, but for the type of people who end up in them, such camps can provide a somewhat functional “sensible, modest, egalitarian lifestyle…based on resource sharing.” (Because of both charity and dumpster diving, these dense encampments do not generally lack food, clothes, or other basics of survival.)

In Wolfe Camp, none of the people Barth interviewed had goals that involved “working a job they hate, or any scenario in which they spend their waking hours engaged in unfulfilling tasks.” But some do work hard—like Kent, who used to enjoy biking by Apple HQ shouting “Fuck you!” at the company, and who pulls in around $3,000 a month dumpster diving in the office parks of billionaire tech companies.

***

California has about a third of the nation’s homeless. This makes waiting lists for official city-provided low-income shelter in the Golden State absurdly long, and the alternate shelter on offer to the denizens of the bulldozed encampments never covers all the people being displaced.

Barth wants us to see these tent cities as not a problem but a solution to the intractable fact that our society will produce people not prepared or able to thrive in it in a standardized job-and-house style. (He also, especially among “homeless” people who live in parked mobile homes or vans, finds many with good jobs and reasonably high incomes.) His characters can be troubled and troublesome but nonetheless are surviving, and by their own standards sometimes thriving, in the delicate combination of liberty and community that their encampments provide—until officials demand their homes be bulldozed and their possessions destroyed or taken (and sometimes sold by contractors hired to evict them).

Barth posits that it would be both cheaper and less damaging to homeless people’s lives if the city would just try to ameliorate the negative externalities of such encampments by providing trash pickup service and some form of water and power supply. Caltrans alone spent $36 million to sweep 1,262 camps in just 2020, and in at least one Los Angeles example it cost $2 million to sweep just one 200-person camp.

Barth is too quick to dismiss “neighborhood warriors wringing their hands about the tents down the street and the people eating, sleeping, fornicating, and getting high inside them.” Having to constantly see these encampments—especially combined with setting fires, a part he leaves out of that sentence but does discuss elsewhere—justifies neighborly alarm, as does having huge parts of what are meant to be public parks along the Guadalupe River in San Jose inhabited by tent dwellers who unnerve joggers or parents pushing strollers.

But his storytelling does show that, whatever mental health problems his homeless characters might have, it’s not crazy in a colloquial sense to value “friendship more than the social services on offer” in homeless-industrial housing. Even as Barth defends their value compared to the destructive, expensive alternatives that—this part is important—don’t make the homeless disappear either, he admits these encampments are “a messy experiment in interdependence” populated by “highly traumatized and dispossessed individuals” such that “things get messy…a lot of trash…screaming…intoxication…dysfunction.”

Still, Barth is convincing that constantly being uprooted and told they cannot be wherever they are on public (and sometimes private) property adds to these people’s edgy unreliability. He also quotes a source who tours through homeless encampments as saying, somewhat convincingly, that the scrappy resourcefulness of a homeless encampment might make it the safest place to flow to if civilization starts seriously collapsing.

Barth’s deeply observed and thoughtful reporting will make most readers whipsaw between sympathy and repulsion toward his characters, even as it hits on many of the ways California makes building new housing absurdly expensive. (One homeless aid program, Homefulness, faced $30,000 in expenses over the city’s demands that it include parking spaces with its new construction.) He notes that one-on-one cash giving beats in practical effect all government homeless aid.

Dave from Wolfe Camp is a fervent voice for his now-annihilated encampment as a solution, not a problem: “A lot of us want to be here. We love the compassion of it. We love the fact that we belong…which is a really magical thing. I would never be able to heal anywhere else.”

Meanwhile, the homeless’ best legal weapon in having their interests hold weight—Martin v. City of Boise, a 2018 9th Circuit Appeals Court decision that slowed homeless camp destruction—has been abandoned by the Supreme Court in a June 2024 decision in Grants Pass v. Johnson.

That case challenged a law in that Oregon city that essentially criminalized sleeping in parks with any bedding or tents. The 6–3 decision by Justice Neil Gorsuch rejected the 9th Circuit’s assertion in Martin that it was unconstitutionally cruel under the Eighth Amendment to make it illegal to sleep in public if the person did not have “access to alternative shelter.”

Gorsuch specifically said this decision reversed the 9th Circuit’s “Martin experiment,” and argued that “Under Martin, cities must allow public camping by those who are ‘involuntarily’ homeless. But how are city officials and law enforcement officers to know what it means to be ‘involuntarily’ homeless, or whether any particular person meets that standard?”

After listing other relevant questions toward judging someone truly “involuntarily” homeless (the characters Barth reports on show that is a tough question in many cases), Gorsuch concludes that “if there are answers to those questions, they cannot be found in the Cruel and Unusual Punishments Clause.”

Allowing such camps to grow and thrive does create problems for neighbors not living there. They may be ameliorable, if not solvable, by changing cities’ approach to them, or if the camps themselves get better at self-regulation. Completely erasing all the strife caused by people who choose and act as Barth’s characters do is not possible. Living in a society, especially with people who reject some of its core tenets, always requires a complicated set of costs and benefits and a balancing of interests.

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