Trump’s Approval Rating Is Cratering. Tariffs Are a Big Reason Why.


President Donald Trump | Samuel Corum - Pool via CNP/CNP/Polaris/Newscom

Donald Trump is now an unpopular president. Some of this dissatisfaction is due to the war in Iran. Some of it springs from the unanticipated speed, chaos, and perceived brutality of several of his administration’s actions over the past year and a half. But a significant part of his political problem has a straightforward economic explanation: Everything feels expensive, and his tariffs are a major reason why.

If the president wants to help himself and his party ahead of this year’s midterm elections, the most effective thing he can do is eliminate the tariffs. The evidence in favor of this move is overwhelming, and it comes from his own tenure.

As an obligatory reminder, tariffs are levied on American importers who pass the costs on to American businesses and consumers. Those insisting tariffs are “paid by foreigners” must now dispute not just history but the present.

The Cato Institute’s Scott Lincicome and colleagues reviewed a year of data from Trump’s tariff regime and found that “the higher costs from tariffs passed through to prices paid by Americans at a rate as high as 96 percent.”

Using daily price data from major U.S. retailers, economists from Harvard Business School found that the 2025 tariffs raised consumer prices almost immediately, with imported goods rising roughly twice as fast as domestic ones and adding nearly a full percentage point to the overall Consumer Price Index by October 2025.

This finding isn’t unique. My colleague Jack Salmon examined 56 quantitative studies produced over the last 30 years and found 19 showing tariffs raise prices and zero showing tariffs lower prices.

This reality has a real impact on Americans. The Tax Foundation put the cost of the tariffs at roughly $1,000 per American household in 2025, with another $700 coming in 2026 from the Section 232 and Section 122 levies, which were left unaffected by Supreme Court’s recent rebuke. It shows up in grocery bills, appliance prices, and clothing costs—routine purchases for working-class households.

The damage goes beyond prices. Salmon’s literature review finds 25 studies documenting negative effects of tariffs on productivity and economic output. None of those studies show positive effects. Across Chile, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Hungary, Canada, and the United States, the pattern is the same: Lower tariffs raise productivity; higher tariffs reduce it.

What about revenue? The Tax Foundation projects $956 billion from the remaining tariffs over a decade, falling to $697 billion once the economic damage, including the uncertainty and foreign retaliation, is counted. That’s a sign of a bad policy.

To be fair, some supporters of Trump’s tariffs were honest about their impact. Isn’t that the whole point? Raise prices and hurt the businesses reliant on foreign goods and inputs to help domestic manufacturers. We’re told that conceding to the working-class white voters who demand protectionism is worth the price.

The political results are now available for inspection too. A new CBS News poll shows that Trump’s approval is underwater with most voters, including white voters without college degrees, among whom his approval rating fell from 68 percent last year to 46 percent today. This is unsurprising. The supposed beneficiaries of economic nationalism are instead its most exposed victims.

It didn’t help that manufacturing employment, which was promised to boom, kept declining throughout 2025. And economic growth decelerated despite the major investment and energy around AI.

The tariffs also produced a final insult: They energized the very Washington insiders the president promised to defeat when he first entered the White House in 2017. When tariffs are numerous, arbitrary, and have an exemption process attached, every affected business must hire a lobbyist to survive.

Data from Lincicome and his co-authors show that “the number of registered clients for tariff-related lobbying increased by 218 percent in 2025 with respect to the previous year.…Meanwhile, trade-related lobbying expenditures reached more than $900 million in the first half of 2025 alone and were 28 percent higher than in the first half of 2024.”

All that lobbying pays off, as evidenced by how the global tariffs have become riddled with exemptions. It’s also good for lawyers. More than 2,000 importers have now rightfully filed suits (an expensive process) seeking refunds on over $160 billion in tariffs the Supreme Court ruled were illegally collected.

The swamp was not drained. It was fed. Small businesses, who usually do not have the luck or resources to access the right people in the administration, pay the full tariff while their larger competitors petition for relief.

The president still has time to change course. The economic case for dropping the tariffs is airtight. The political case is increasingly urgent.

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Hunter Biden and Candace Owens Are BFFs Now


Candace Owens and Hunter Biden | @RealCandaceO / X

Hunter Biden has sat down for an interview with Candace Owens; it hasn’t aired yet, but select clips are available on social media. So while it’s not yet possible to get a feel for the overall tone of the conversation, we can nevertheless conclude that there is at least some warmth between the two. For instance, Biden can be seen praising Owens for asking supposedly tough questions about the assassination of Charlie Kirk. She has stated plainly that she does not believe the official story, and has suggested that Kirk’s wife, Erika Kirk, his organization, Turning Point USA, or even the state of Israel could be somehow involved.

There is no evidence whatsoever for any of these claims. On the contrary, the alleged killer’s motive and opportunity are overwhelmingly clear, and he also confessed.

Biden apparently disagrees.

“I listen to you and I go ‘right on,'” says Biden during the interview, specifically referencing Owens’ desperate mission to connect the Israeli government to Kirk’s assassination.

By all accounts, Biden is no longer smoking crack, so one might wonder why he would agree to sit down with Owens and also validate her unhinged conspiracies. The answer, however, becomes obvious in this clip: He is still trying to salvage his dad’s reputation and also attack the people who forced him off the ticket in 2024.

“The D.C. elite of the left, they crushed my dad because he was never part of that club, he was never part of the Epstein class,” says Biden.

This is complete nonsense, of course. Joe Biden was not “crushed” by the leaders of his political party because they were in cahoots with the financier and convicted sexual predator Jeffrey Epstein. Powerful elites did not turn on Biden because he was threatening to expose their complicity in sex trafficking. Biden was forced out of the campaign because his advanced age and infirmity had rendered him patently unfit to serve another term. Despite the best efforts of his inner circle to conceal this reality from the public, it nevertheless became obvious to everyone after the disastrous June 2024 debate.

Hunter Biden wants to rewrite history, however. He wants to pretend that a nonexistence group of people, “the Epstein class,” had something to do with his dad’s ignominious exit. And so he’s found someone who is well known for seizing upon claims that are manifestly not true and peddling them to a large and unfortunately gullible audience.

Thus the malleability of the grifter. Owens is, of course, a long-time critic of Hunter Biden and has no love for his father, either. But at present, she has other priorities. So it makes perfect sense that she would be willing to absorb Hunter Biden’s conspiracy theories about the Democratic elites betraying his father, in service of her overall agenda of spreading nonsense.

Owens could always surprise me and ask Hunter Biden to defend his absurd claims. I wouldn’t count on it.


This Week on Free Media

I am joined by Amber Duke to discuss alleged assassin Luigi Mangione’s fangirls and New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s contempt for President Ronald Reagan.


Worth Watching

I am not sure I’m going to be able to finish the final season of The Boys. It’s really, really bad. Three episodes in, I am enjoying having Soldier Boy (Jensen Ackles) back, and that’s about it. The showrunners have made the obnoxious decision to transform Homelander into a full-on, completely unsubtle parody of Trump, and it’s really grating. This has somehow rendered him much less terrifying. Also, the main characters still being alive is no longer plausible whatsoever. They’ve had far too many encounters with the bad guys in which no one important gets lasered to death.

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Hunter Biden and Candace Owens Are BFFs Now


Candace Owens and Hunter Biden | @RealCandaceO / X

Hunter Biden has sat down for an interview with Candace Owens; it hasn’t aired yet, but select clips are available on social media. So while it’s not yet possible to get a feel for the overall tone of the conversation, we can nevertheless conclude that there is at least some warmth between the two. For instance, Biden can be seen praising Owens for asking supposedly tough questions about the assassination of Charlie Kirk. She has stated plainly that she does not believe the official story, and has suggested that Kirk’s wife, Erika Kirk, his organization, Turning Point USA, or even the state of Israel could be somehow involved.

There is no evidence whatsoever for any of these claims. On the contrary, the alleged killer’s motive and opportunity are overwhelmingly clear, and he also confessed.

Biden apparently disagrees.

“I listen to you and I go ‘right on,'” says Biden during the interview, specifically referencing Owens’ desperate mission to connect the Israeli government to Kirk’s assassination.

By all accounts, Biden is no longer smoking crack, so one might wonder why he would agree to sit down with Owens and also validate her unhinged conspiracies. The answer, however, becomes obvious in this clip: He is still trying to salvage his dad’s reputation and also attack the people who forced him off the ticket in 2024.

“The D.C. elite of the left, they crushed my dad because he was never part of that club, he was never part of the Epstein class,” says Biden.

This is complete nonsense, of course. Joe Biden was not “crushed” by the leaders of his political party because they were in cahoots with the financier and convicted sexual predator Jeffrey Epstein. Powerful elites did not turn on Biden because he was threatening to expose their complicity in sex trafficking. Biden was forced out of the campaign because his advanced age and infirmity had rendered him patently unfit to serve another term. Despite the best efforts of his inner circle to conceal this reality from the public, it nevertheless became obvious to everyone after the disastrous June 2024 debate.

Hunter Biden wants to rewrite history, however. He wants to pretend that a nonexistence group of people, “the Epstein class,” had something to do with his dad’s ignominious exit. And so he’s found someone who is well known for seizing upon claims that are manifestly not true and peddling them to a large and unfortunately gullible audience.

Thus the malleability of the grifter. Owens is, of course, a long-time critic of Hunter Biden and has no love for his father, either. But at present, she has other priorities. So it makes perfect sense that she would be willing to absorb Hunter Biden’s conspiracy theories about the Democratic elites betraying his father, in service of her overall agenda of spreading nonsense.

Owens could always surprise me and ask Hunter Biden to defend his absurd claims. I wouldn’t count on it.


This Week on Free Media

I am joined by Amber Duke to discuss alleged assassin Luigi Mangione’s fangirls and New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s contempt for President Ronald Reagan.


Worth Watching

I am not sure I’m going to be able to finish the final season of The Boys. It’s really, really bad. Three episodes in, I am enjoying having Soldier Boy (Jensen Ackles) back, and that’s about it. The showrunners have made the obnoxious decision to transform Homelander into a full-on, completely unsubtle parody of Trump, and it’s really grating. This has somehow rendered him much less terrifying. Also, the main characters still being alive is no longer plausible whatsoever. They’ve had far too many encounters with the bad guys in which no one important gets lasered to death.

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Bankrolling the Nation


Jeff Bezos | Credit: CNBC Television / Youtube

Who should be exempt? Why does Jeff Bezos think teachers in Queens making $75,000 a year shouldn’t be expected to pay taxes?

“I think what’s going on is that it’s kind of a tale of two economies,” he told CNBC’s Squawk Box yesterday. OK, uncontroversial. “You have a bunch of people in this country who are doing really well, but you also have a bunch of people in this country who are struggling—struggling to pay rent, groceries.”

“A nurse in Queens who makes $75,000 a year pays 12—more than $12,000 a year in taxes,” continued Bezos—the veracity of which is debatable. “Does that really make sense? So, people talk about making the tax system more progressive. How about we start by having the nurse in Queens not pay taxes?”

“Why is a nurse in Queens who makes $75,000 a year paying more than $1,000 a month in taxes?” he continued. “That’s $1,000 a month that could help with rent or groceries or anything. And so—and by the way, do you know what that all adds up to? The bottom half of income earners in this country pay only 3 percent of the taxes. It’s only 3 percent. We can find 3 percent. So we don’t have—it’s a small amount of money for the government.…We don’t have a revenue problem in this country. We already have the most progressive tax system in the world. The top 1 percent of taxpayers pay 40 percent of all the tax revenue. The bottom half pay only 3 percent. We have already, and I think it should be zero. I don’t think it should be 3 percent.…We actually have a spending problem and that’s a skills issue.”

I mean, some parts of this are true: The federal government does have a massive spending issue. But parts of it are very muddled: Per Tax Policy Center estimates, the bottom 40 percent of households already don’t pay any federal individual income tax. We’re already basically there, at the place Jeff Bezos aspires to be! And it’s not great—either for those households, seemingly, which still (reasonably!) complain of high housing and healthcare and education and childcare costs, or for the federal government being able to balance the budget. (But also, the “nurse in Queens making $75,000” is an imagined person. Average salaries for New York City area registered nurses run about $96,000.)

The truth of it is that we probably need a broad tax base given how large of a welfare and entitlements state we currently have. We need taxes to fund the things we’ve decided to do together. I’m OK with scrapping an awful lot of that, and actually doing very little together. But in the absence of making those vast structural changes, it really rubs me the wrong way that Bezos is advocating for a further narrowing of the tax base, acting like households like mine—two income; both white collar—must bankroll nurses and teachers in Queens (both examples he cites in the interview) making $75,000 a year. These would hardly be poverty wages; but also, they’re not even accurate descriptors of what nurses and teachers in New York tend to get paid these days. (And for teachers, this salary is in addition to their pensions, mind you, because, as I’ve reported before, blue-state teachers don’t have it so bad. Tattoo that on my chest and tell it to Elizabeth Warren!)

Elsewhere, Bezos talks more sense:

“These people [Democrats like Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D–Mass.)] sometimes say that, that, you know, I don’t pay taxes. That’s not true.…If people want me to pay more billions then let’s have that debate. But don’t pretend you know that this, that that’s going to solve the problem. You could double the taxes I pay and it’s not going to help that teacher in Queens, I promise you. You can’t connect those two things, not logically. You know, there, there are more examples. Why is rent expensive? Why is rent so expensive? I recently saw somebody blamed it on Airbnb. Okay, Airbnb is not the cause of expensive rent. It’s already been outlawed in New York City. And rents are still very high. So we know Airbnb isn’t causing high rents. What’s really causing high rent is government intervention. We subsidize demand with things like tax policy, which is fine, but at the same time, we constrain supply. We constrain supply with things like zoning and permitting. Why does it take so long to get something permitted to build? If you want rents to come down, Econ 101—Really simple. You can’t subsidize demand and constrain supply. If you do, prices are going to skyrocket. But this is not anybody’s fault other than government policy. And this is fixable. Again, this is a skills issue.”

And, when asked about Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’ (D–N.Y.) recent rant—that there’s a certain level of wealth and accumulation that is unearned; that you can break rules and abuse labor laws, but you can’t earn billions of dollars—Bezos responded:

“Let’s say you start a burger joint. And you have ten employees and you make a little bit of money.…And so then you open a second outlet. And now you’re making a little bit more money and you have 20 employees and you open a third outlet. By the time you’ve opened 1,000 outlets, you are a billionaire. And by the way, this is a real life story. It happens all the time. It’s In-N-Out burger. It’s, you know, Raising Cane’s Chicken. At what point did that money all of a sudden become unethical or it didn’t? There was one outlet, and then there were two, and then there were three. What you’re doing, the way, the way you make $1 billion or $100 million or $10 million or anything, is you create a service that people love. And if millions of people choose your service, you’re going to end up with $1 billion.”

Given how Bezos accurately diagnoses our political problems throughout much of the interview, it’s rather disturbing how he doesn’t seem to understand a) what the current tax base looks like, and how progressive or regressive federal taxation is; and b) that we probably need a broad tax base and that further splitting into payers and nonpayers might have unintended consequences (like those who pay no taxes voting as if it’s all monopoly money).


Scenes from New York: The only mergers and acquisitions I care about: “The Neue Galerie and its collections will come under the Met’s administrative umbrella; Mr. Lauder and his daughter Aerin Lauder Zinterhofer will donate a further 13 paintings as well as money to cover costs associated with the merger and support an endowment that will fully fund operations and programming. The name will change to The Met Ronald S. Lauder Neue Galerie, but it will be referred to as The Met Neue Galerie,” reports The Wall Street Journal. “The Met has deep holdings of work by Paul Klee and Schiele in addition to creations of the Wiener Werkstätte, a sort of early Bauhaus, only in Vienna, where a community of artists designed and made utilitarian objects. And it has a fine Beckmann painting. But its representations of other artists of these schools are spotty at best. So this alliance is transformational.” The Met (as well as our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ!) kept me sane when my second-born was in the hospital on the Upper East Side; what a delight that the collection will grow!


QUICK HITS

  • “To reveal how Iran has been consolidating control over this strategic chokepoint in recent weeks, Reuters interviewed 20 people with knowledge of the evolving mechanism, including Asian and European shipping sources and Iranian and Iraqi officials, reviewed Iranian documents related to the vetting process, and analysed movements of ships. Taken together, they offer rare insight into how the Iranian scheme functions, with the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps playing a central role.” Link here.
  • “Hooters Says Bring the Kids,” courtesy of The New York Times.
  • Insane:

  • This is patently false. The poor are not “being forced to rely on” services like DoorDash. Eating rice and beans and lentils and chicken breast and apples and dollar burritos and Folgers you brew at home—eating simply, and buying in bulk, and stretching food far by cooking at home—is not oppression. It’s how most of our families ate, pretty much always, up until recently; it’s how many of us were raised. And now, there’s more knowledge-dissemination (check out FrugalityTok!) than ever before. (Others of us, in far less dire circumstances, have the ability to save time by getting groceries delivered, to then use that time for the higher-ROI activity of cooking at home. There are a lot of different options available to us all now, and truly none of them involve being forced to spend $40 a meal.)

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Racial Slurs as Actionable Intentional Infliction of Emotional Distress

From Allen v. Noble, decided last week by Judge Latonia Williams (Conn. Super. Ct. New Haven), plaintiff’s factual allegations (for Noble’s side of the story, as to the now-dropped criminal charges against her apparently based on the same incident, see this N.Y. Post op-ed—she denies that she used slurs, and claims that surveillance video footage shows “[n]o confrontation, not even any interaction, with the accuser”):

[P]laintiff alleges the following facts. The plaintiff is an American citizen of African descent, who, during the times alleged in the complaint, was employed as a parking lot attendant for Pro-Park Mobility. The defendant Noble, during the times alleged in the complaint, was the executive director, employee, and agent for service of process of the defendant Buckley Institute. On or about a date prior to July 6, 2023, one or both of the defendants entered into an agreement with the plaintiff’s employer to rent parking spaces for one or more of Buckley Institute’s employees, including Noble, in the parking lot where the plaintiff works as an attendant (parking lot).

The complaint alleges that on or about July 6, 2023, while the plaintiff was at the parking lot, he informed Noble that the lot was full and he could not provide for her parking needs. The complaint alleges that the plaintiff overheard Noble state, “fucking niggers,” and that the plaintiff did not respond to her.

The complaint further alleges that on July 13, 2023, while the plaintiff was on duty within the parking lot, Noble told him she could not find a parking place in the parking lot and the plaintiff said the parking lot was full and could not accommodate her. The complaint alleges that Noble replied: “You’s niggers get jobs and don’t know how to act!,” and that the plaintiff did not respond to her.

The complaint further alleges that on or about July 27, 2023, the plaintiff observed Noble arrive at the parking lot and found that, due to the lot being full, there was no space within the parking lot to park her car. The complaint alleges that at that time, in the presence of, and within the earshot of two individuals and the plaintiff, Noble orally referred to the plaintiff as a “nigger” three times over a parking lot issue.

The complaint states that “[t]he plaintiff, by dint of … Noble’s racially odious, racially demeaning, cruel, abhorrent, and racist epithets towards … [the plaintiff] had the capacity to hold him up to public ridicule, public humiliation, and has caused him great annoyance, embarrassment, shame, degradation, and moreover, he has suffered in his reputation and has lost the good will of many persons with which he otherwise would have enjoyed by dint of … Noble’s heinous and foul misconduct she directed towards him.” …

The court allowed plaintiff’s intentional infliction of emotional distress claim to go forward:

 “In order for the plaintiff to prevail in a case for liability under … [IIED], four elements must be established. It must be shown: (1) that the actor intended to inflict emotional distress or that he knew or should have known that emotional distress was the likely result of his conduct; (2) that the conduct was extreme and outrageous; (3) that the defendant’s conduct was the cause of the plaintiff’s distress; and (4) that the emotional distress sustained by the plaintiff was severe.” “Liability for [IIED] requires conduct that exceeds all bounds usually tolerated by decent society …. Liability has been found only where the conduct has been so outrageous in character, and so extreme in degree, as to go beyond all possible bounds of decency, and to be regarded as atrocious, and utterly intolerable in a civilized community…. Conduct on the part of the defendant that is merely insulting or displays bad manners or results in hurt feelings is insufficient to form the basis for an action based upon [IIED].”

“Whether a defendant’s conduct is sufficient to satisfy the requirement that it be extreme and outrageous is initially a question for the court to determine…. Only where reasonable minds disagree does it become an issue for the jury.” “[I]n assessing a claim for [IIED], the court performs a gatekeeping function. In this capacity, the role of the court is to determine whether the allegations of a complaint… set forth behaviors that a reasonable fact finder could find to be extreme or outrageous. In exercising this responsibility, the court is not fact finding, but rather it is making an assessment whether, as a matter of law, the alleged behavior fits the criteria required to establish a claim premised on [IIED].” …

In general, “courts have been more apt to find sufficient allegations of outrageous conduct when that conduct involves violence, the threat of violence, or racial, ethnic, sexual, or religious slurs…. Lamothe v. Russell (Conn. Super. Ct. 2009) (supervisor constantly belittled, berated, and screamed at the plaintiff, constantly mocked plaintiff by calling her fat, threw objects at or near plaintiff, and, on at least one occasion in front of others, grabbed a cigarette out of plaintiff’s mouth and/or hands, while screaming at her); Leone v. New England Communications (Conn. Super. Ct. 2002) (owners subjected plaintiff to constant ethnic slurs, sexually offensive comments, sexually offensive pictures placed on plaintiff’s computer, and insulting comments on his sexual preference).” Cortazar v. Staples the Office Superstore (Conn. Super. Ct. 2012)….

With respect to the specific word at issue in this case, our Supreme Court [in State v. Lienbenguth (2020)] provides an in-depth discussion of the highly offensive and demeaning nature of the use of the word “nigger.” The court states:

Not only is the word “nigger” undoubtedly the most hateful and inflammatory racial slur in the contemporary American lexicon; …; but it is probably the single most offensive word in the English language. See, e.g., Ayissi-Etoh v. Fannie Mae (D.C. Cir. 2013) (Kavanaugh, J., concurring) (“[The] epithet [‘nigger’] has been labeled, variously, a term that ‘sums up … all the bitter years of insult and struggle in America,’ [L. Hughes, The Big Sea: An Autobiography], ‘pure anathema to African-Americans,’ Spriggs v. Diamond Auto Glass (4th Cir. 2001), and ‘probably the most offensive word in English.’ [Random House Webster’s College Dictionary]. See generally [A. Haley, Roots: The Saga of an American Family]; [H. Lee, To Kill a Mockingbird]…. No other word in the English language so powerfully or instantly calls to mind our country’s long and brutal struggle to overcome racism and discrimination against African-Americans.”); R. Kennedy, The David C. Baum Lecture: ‘Nigger!’ as a Problem in the Law, 2001 U. Ill. L. Rev. 935 (although “[t]he American language is (and has long been) rife with terms of ethnic, racial, and national insult: kike, mick, wop, nip, gook, honkie, wetback, chink, [etc.] … ‘nigger is now probably the most offensive word in English'”); Dictionary.com, available at https://ift.tt/ucEetlx (“The term nigger is now probably the most offensive word in English. Its degree of offensiveness has increased markedly in recent years, although it has been used in a derogatory manner since at least the Revolutionary War.”).

In fact, because of the racial prejudice and oppression with which it is forever inextricably linked, the word “nigger,” when used by a white person as an assertion of the racial inferiority of an African-American person, “is more than [a] mere offensive utterance …. No word … is as odious or loaded with as terrible a history.” … “[T]he term is generally regarded as virtually taboo because of the legacy of racial hatred that underlies the history of its use among whites” …. “[N]o fact is more generally known than that a white man who calls a black man a ‘nigger’ within his hearing will hurt and anger the black man and often provoke him to confront the white man and retaliate. The trial court was free to judicially note this fact.”). The word being “one of insult, abuse and belittlement harking back to slavery days”; it is uniquely “expressive of racial hatred and bigotry”; and “degrading and humiliating in the extreme ….” For all these reasons, the word rightly has been characterized as “the most provocative, emotionally-charged and explosive term in the [English] language.”

In the present case, Noble allegedly referred to the plaintiff as a “nigger” multiple times, on three different days. Thus, for purposes of the motion to strike, the plaintiff has sufficiently alleged facts to support the extreme and outrageous element.

The defendants further argue that the plaintiff fails to allege facts that, if proven true, would show that the plaintiff has suffered “severe” mental distress. Here again, the court disagrees. “The distress necessary to sustain a claim of intentional infliction of emotional distress has been defined simply, but clearly, as ‘mental distress of a very serious kind.'” Count two alleges “severe” emotional distress. The severity of the distress is to be determined by the evidence of its intensity and duration in future proceedings; thus, the cases relied on by the defendants involving summary judgment do not assist the court in determining the sufficiency of the allegations…. Whether the plaintiff suffered “severe” mental distress is for a finder of fact to determine.

But the court rejected plaintiff’s other claims. As to his slander claim, it reasoned that the slur did “not assert objective fact, but only an opinion.” As to the negligent infliction of emotional distress claim, it reasoned (among other things) that that tort applied to a narrow set of cases involving risk of illness or bodily harm. It similarly rejected the claims for negligence and for “wanton and reckless conduct,” which generally require a risk of bodily harm. And it rejected an unfair competition claim, in part because it is limited to conduct within business relationships:

The supplemental objection argues that Noble’s statements occurred during conduct of trade and commerce by way of the defendant’s use of the lot while going to and from work. The plaintiff reasons that the claim is satisfied because one of Noble’s responsibilities is to show up to work for business and events, and the defendants lease the parking space from the plaintiff’s employer; thus, they are engaged in trade or commerce with the parking lot.

However, the plaintiff has failed to provide the court with any binding authority that Noble’s act of parking a car in the lot leased by Buckley Institute and/or Noble creates an action in trade or commerce by Noble. “[A]ctivities constitute trade or commerce only if the party is engaged in the business of conducting such activities.” The complaint fails to sufficiently allege that Noble was engaged in trade or commerce.

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Bankrolling the Nation


Jeff Bezos | Credit: CNBC Television / Youtube

Who should be exempt? Why does Jeff Bezos think teachers in Queens making $75,000 a year shouldn’t be expected to pay taxes?

“I think what’s going on is that it’s kind of a tale of two economies,” he told CNBC’s Squawk Box yesterday. OK, uncontroversial. “You have a bunch of people in this country who are doing really well, but you also have a bunch of people in this country who are struggling—struggling to pay rent, groceries.”

“A nurse in Queens who makes $75,000 a year pays 12—more than $12,000 a year in taxes,” continued Bezos—the veracity of which is debatable. “Does that really make sense? So, people talk about making the tax system more progressive. How about we start by having the nurse in Queens not pay taxes?”

“Why is a nurse in Queens who makes $75,000 a year paying more than $1,000 a month in taxes?” he continued. “That’s $1,000 a month that could help with rent or groceries or anything. And so—and by the way, do you know what that all adds up to? The bottom half of income earners in this country pay only 3 percent of the taxes. It’s only 3 percent. We can find 3 percent. So we don’t have—it’s a small amount of money for the government.…We don’t have a revenue problem in this country. We already have the most progressive tax system in the world. The top 1 percent of taxpayers pay 40 percent of all the tax revenue. The bottom half pay only 3 percent. We have already, and I think it should be zero. I don’t think it should be 3 percent.…We actually have a spending problem and that’s a skills issue.”

I mean, some parts of this are true: The federal government does have a massive spending issue. But parts of it are very muddled: Per Tax Policy Center estimates, the bottom 40 percent of households already don’t pay any federal individual income tax. We’re already basically there, at the place Jeff Bezos aspires to be! And it’s not great—either for those households, seemingly, which still (reasonably!) complain of high housing and healthcare and education and childcare costs, or for the federal government being able to balance the budget. (But also, the “nurse in Queens making $75,000” is an imagined person. Average salaries for New York City area registered nurses run about $96,000.)

The truth of it is that we probably need a broad tax base given how large of a welfare and entitlements state we currently have. We need taxes to fund the things we’ve decided to do together. I’m OK with scrapping an awful lot of that, and actually doing very little together. But in the absence of making those vast structural changes, it really rubs me the wrong way that Bezos is advocating for a further narrowing of the tax base, acting like households like mine—two income; both white collar—must bankroll nurses and teachers in Queens (both examples he cites in the interview) making $75,000 a year. These would hardly be poverty wages; but also, they’re not even accurate descriptors of what nurses and teachers in New York tend to get paid these days. (And for teachers, this salary is in addition to their pensions, mind you, because, as I’ve reported before, blue-state teachers don’t have it so bad. Tattoo that on my chest and tell it to Elizabeth Warren!)

Elsewhere, Bezos talks more sense:

“These people [Democrats like Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D–Mass.)] sometimes say that, that, you know, I don’t pay taxes. That’s not true.…If people want me to pay more billions then let’s have that debate. But don’t pretend you know that this, that that’s going to solve the problem. You could double the taxes I pay and it’s not going to help that teacher in Queens, I promise you. You can’t connect those two things, not logically. You know, there, there are more examples. Why is rent expensive? Why is rent so expensive? I recently saw somebody blamed it on Airbnb. Okay, Airbnb is not the cause of expensive rent. It’s already been outlawed in New York City. And rents are still very high. So we know Airbnb isn’t causing high rents. What’s really causing high rent is government intervention. We subsidize demand with things like tax policy, which is fine, but at the same time, we constrain supply. We constrain supply with things like zoning and permitting. Why does it take so long to get something permitted to build? If you want rents to come down, Econ 101—Really simple. You can’t subsidize demand and constrain supply. If you do, prices are going to skyrocket. But this is not anybody’s fault other than government policy. And this is fixable. Again, this is a skills issue.”

And, when asked about Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’ (D–N.Y.) recent rant—that there’s a certain level of wealth and accumulation that is unearned; that you can break rules and abuse labor laws, but you can’t earn billions of dollars—Bezos responded:

“Let’s say you start a burger joint. And you have ten employees and you make a little bit of money.…And so then you open a second outlet. And now you’re making a little bit more money and you have 20 employees and you open a third outlet. By the time you’ve opened 1,000 outlets, you are a billionaire. And by the way, this is a real life story. It happens all the time. It’s In-N-Out burger. It’s, you know, Raising Cane’s Chicken. At what point did that money all of a sudden become unethical or it didn’t? There was one outlet, and then there were two, and then there were three. What you’re doing, the way, the way you make $1 billion or $100 million or $10 million or anything, is you create a service that people love. And if millions of people choose your service, you’re going to end up with $1 billion.”

Given how Bezos accurately diagnoses our political problems throughout much of the interview, it’s rather disturbing how he doesn’t seem to understand a) what the current tax base looks like, and how progressive or regressive federal taxation is; and b) that we probably need a broad tax base and that further splitting into payers and nonpayers might have unintended consequences (like those who pay no taxes voting as if it’s all monopoly money).


Scenes from New York: The only mergers and acquisitions I care about: “The Neue Galerie and its collections will come under the Met’s administrative umbrella; Mr. Lauder and his daughter Aerin Lauder Zinterhofer will donate a further 13 paintings as well as money to cover costs associated with the merger and support an endowment that will fully fund operations and programming. The name will change to The Met Ronald S. Lauder Neue Galerie, but it will be referred to as The Met Neue Galerie,” reports The Wall Street Journal. “The Met has deep holdings of work by Paul Klee and Schiele in addition to creations of the Wiener Werkstätte, a sort of early Bauhaus, only in Vienna, where a community of artists designed and made utilitarian objects. And it has a fine Beckmann painting. But its representations of other artists of these schools are spotty at best. So this alliance is transformational.” The Met (as well as our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ!) kept me sane when my second-born was in the hospital on the Upper East Side; what a delight that the collection will grow!


QUICK HITS

  • “To reveal how Iran has been consolidating control over this strategic chokepoint in recent weeks, Reuters interviewed 20 people with knowledge of the evolving mechanism, including Asian and European shipping sources and Iranian and Iraqi officials, reviewed Iranian documents related to the vetting process, and analysed movements of ships. Taken together, they offer rare insight into how the Iranian scheme functions, with the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps playing a central role.” Link here.
  • “Hooters Says Bring the Kids,” courtesy of The New York Times.
  • Insane:

  • This is patently false. The poor are not “being forced to rely on” services like DoorDash. Eating rice and beans and lentils and chicken breast and apples and dollar burritos and Folgers you brew at home—eating simply, and buying in bulk, and stretching food far by cooking at home—is not oppression. It’s how most of our families ate, pretty much always, up until recently; it’s how many of us were raised. And now, there’s more knowledge-dissemination (check out FrugalityTok!) than ever before. (Others of us, in far less dire circumstances, have the ability to save time by getting groceries delivered, to then use that time for the higher-ROI activity of cooking at home. There are a lot of different options available to us all now, and truly none of them involve being forced to spend $40 a meal.)

The post Bankrolling the Nation appeared first on Reason.com.

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Walmart Tumbles On Disappointing Guidance, Warns Low-Income Consumers Drowning

Walmart Tumbles On Disappointing Guidance, Warns Low-Income Consumers Drowning

Extending concerns about US consumer weakness – now that the bumper OBBBA tax refund period is over – after yesterday’s earnings by Home Depot and Target, this morning Walmart reported Q1 earnings (the last big company to report, rounding out earnings season) and warned that fuel costs are squeezing the company’s bottom line and could lead to higher prices for shoppers. 

In the latest quarter, the world’s largest retailer said comparable sales in US stores rose 4.1%, excluding fuel, in the latest quarter, slightly better than the 4.0% Wall Street analysts were expecting. That was the good news; the bad news is that Walmart also forecast adjusted profit for the second quarter that missed analysts’ expectations.

The results show that the company continues to gain market share across income levels with its focus on low prices, fast delivery and wide assortment. But the emphasis on affordability is facing pressure as inflation accelerates and the conflict in Iran drives up fuel prices.

Here is a snapshot of what WMT just reported, starting with the highlights:

  • Revenue $177.75 billion, +7.3% y/y, beating estimates of $175.06 billion
    • Walmart-only US stores comparable sales ex-gas +4.1%, estimate +4%
    • Sam’s Club US comparable sales ex-gas +3.9%, estimate +3.59%
  • Adjusted EPS 66c vs. 61c y/y, in line with exp. 66c
  • Gross margin 24.3%, in line with exp. 24.3%

Going down the line:

  • Change in US E-Commerce sales +26%, estimate +18.6%
  • Operating cash flow $4.74 billion, -12% y/y
  • Adjusted operating income $7.67 billion, estimate $7.69 billion

US e-commerce sales grew 26% during the quarter, fueling growth in the company’s biggest market. Sales of grocery and general merchandise rose mid single-digits. General merchandise, which consists of apparel, electronics and other discretionary items, gained the most share in five years.

Walmart also said that transactions at Walmart US rose 3%, while average ticket was up 1.1%, which means that WMT is still eating much of the input costs and making up for its with traffic. That however, will change very soon as the company revealed in its earnings call. 

Walmart reported strong growth in grocery and general merchandise categories; partially offset by 100 bps headwind from maximum fair pricing legislation in pharmacy. Broad-based share gains across categories and income tiers led by upper-income households.

“The high-income consumer is spending with confidence in many categories, whereas the low-income consumer, we can tell, is more budget-conscious, trying to navigate certain financial distress,” Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey said in an interview with Bloomberg News. During the quarter, sales slowed somewhat in April after the Easter holiday. Higher tax refunds likely muted the impact of rising gas prices, though that’s abating, Rainey said. Prices rose 1.2% during the quarter and they could increase further if fuel prices stay where they are, he added, although that would surely lead to reduced traffic.

Translation: if it weren’t for upper income consumers, who are forced to trade down to discounters such as Walmart, earnings would have been a disaster. 

And nowhere was this more obvious than in the company’s guidance, because while Q1 earnings were solid, the reason the stock is selling off sharply in premarket trading is the company’s disappointing forecast:

Second quarter forecast: 

  • Sees adjusted EPS 72c to 74c, both below the median estimate of 75c 
  • Sees net sales at constant currencies +4% to +5%
  • Sees operating income at constant currencies up 7% to 10%

2027 full-year forecast

  • Still sees adjusted EPS $2.75 to $2.85, below the median estimate $2.92
  • Still sees net sales at constant currencies +3.5% to +4.5%

Walmart, which is viewed as an economic barometer due to its large size and footprint across the US and other markets, was the latest confirmation that the “lower half” of the K-shaped economy continues to sink, and it is only the upper half (that is increasingly shopping at WalMart) which is keeping the retailer afloat. 

While spending has largely held up in recent years, consumers have become increasingly selective with their purchases. Good deals and unique products can still attract buyers.

But the biggest wildcard is that the higher tax refunds this year have given families some extra cash, but this benefit is now fading fast as we explained a month ago. While most prices of general goods haven’t risen as operators move existing inventory, this could change as the war drags on.

There’ more: fuel weighed on Walmart’s profit margin in the quarter, as the company absorbed “virtually the entirety” of the increases during the period, Rainey said. The company is prioritizing keeping prices low, with the number of discounts rising 20% from a year ago. That said, Reiney warned of potential higher retail price inflation in Q2 and H2 if the current elevated cost environment persists.

“It’s tough on very short notice to be able to navigate a cost headwind like that,” he said. While Walmart will be able to manage through it, he expects to see an equal or larger challenge related to fuel in the current quarter.

Rainey said that the number of gas gallons customers bought at Walmart stations fell below 10 for first time since 2022; he added that the decline in gas buying is sign of financial stress.

Walmart has consistently posted stronger results than many competitors, raising investors’ expectations and pushing the company’s forward PE to an insane 45x, a multiple that will soon get a painful reminder of what happens to multiples during consumer recessions.

Walmart’s cautious narrative echoes commentary from big-box peers Target Corp. and Home Depot which both signaled this week that consumers are staying resilient although purchases are slowing. Kraft Heinz, McDonald’s and other companies have also struck a cautious tone recently. The past year has been a roller coaster for consumer-facing companies, first with President Trump’s expansive, on-off tariffs, that in some cases roiled operations, and now with the ongoing geopolitical conflicts threatening to dampen demand.

The Bentonville, Arkansas-based retailer has said it seeks to gain market share during challenging economic times by focusing on value and essentials like groceries. Delivery and other online services have expanded Walmart’s base of clients to include wealthier shoppers. Advertising and other businesses are also contributing to profit growth and giving the company more room to further invest in lowering prices and improving store operations.

In particular, fast deliveries have been a growth engine, and the company’s efforts to make inroads into the fashion market are gaining traction. Walmart has also expanded the selection of merchandise on its marketplace of third-party vendors.

The company’s shares tumbled more than 3% in premarket trading in New York. The stock has risen 17% so far this year as of Wednesday’s close. Shares of Walmart’s peers, including Target and Kroger Co., also fell in premarket trading on Thursday.

Full Q1 investor presentation below (pdf link)

q1 Fy27 Earnings Presentation by Zerohedge

Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/21/2026 – 09:10

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FBI Charges Assistant US Attorney For Stealing Smith Report Docs In Trump ‘Witch Hunt’ Case

FBI Charges Assistant US Attorney For Stealing Smith Report Docs In Trump ‘Witch Hunt’ Case

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Former Justice Department prosecutor Carmen Mercedes Lineberger has been indicted for allegedly removing confidential Justice Department material and then concealing her efforts. Lineberger is accused of secretly transferring Jack Smith’s final report and hiding the material under files labeled “chocolate cake recipe” and “bundt cake recipe.” There has not been a greater recipe for disaster since aides tried to fit all of Biden’s candles on a cake. The case is particularly interesting because there was another person who was accused of a secret removal of Justice Department material who was not prosecuted: former FBI Director James Comey.

Linebarger, 62, of Port St. Lucie, Florida, has been indicted on four criminal charges: one felony count of obstruction of justice, one felony count of concealing government records and two misdemeanor counts of theft of government property valued at less than $1,000.

According to the indictment, Lineberger altered electronic file names of government records to conceal unauthorized transmissions of the documents to her personal email accounts and used file names for cake recipes to conceal her possession of the confidential information.

U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon blocked the public release of the report after the prosecution collapsed against the President.

The Justice Department alleges that Lineberger received a copy of Smith’s report before the court sealed it. Months later, she allegedly decided to transfer it to her personal email account in violation of the court order and Justice Department rules.

She has now pleaded not guilty and faces up to 20 years on the obstruction charge and other charges.

The decision is notable for a couple of reasons.

First, Smith made one last move in dismissing the case against Trump that left the door open to resuming his prosecution. Smith moved to dismiss the indictment “without prejudice” and then stressed to the court that the Department has previously “noted the possibility that a court might equitably toll the statute of limitations to permit proceeding against the President once out of office.” In other words, Trump could be prosecuted after he leaves office.

It is not known what the motive might have been in this transfer. One possibility would be a type of souvenir or trophy grab, which would be ironic given Smith’s suggestion that Trump may have transferred classified material for that type of possessory thrill. Another is the possible use for a book. Finally, there might have been a desire to preserve evidence to avoid destruction during the Trump years or possible release to the media.

The second notable aspect is that Comey was accused of such a knowing removal, but he was never actually prosecuted.

There was no court order governing the material removed by Comey after his firing, but it was clearly departmental material.

The Inspector General, Michael Horowitz, found that Comey was a leaker and had violated FBI policy in his handling of FBI memos. He found that Comey grabbed the material on his way out of the Bureau, including those containing the “code name and true identity” of a sensitive source.

While he did not find a disclosure of the classified information, Horowitz found that Comey took “the unauthorized disclosure of sensitive investigative information, obtained during the course of FBI employment, to achieve a personally desired outcome.” He further added that Comey “set a dangerous example for the over 35,000 current FBI employees—and the many thousands of more former FBI employees—who similarly have access to or knowledge of non-public information.”

Comey later admitted that he asked his friend, Columbia Law Professor Daniel Richman, to leak information from the documents to the New York Times.

While Comey is facing a weak criminal case over threats conveyed through beach shells, some of us saw his conduct in removing this material as a more serious breach.

Comey went on to write books on “ethical leadership” and recently sent a message to current FBI personnel that they should “hang on” and wait out Trump: “In two and a half years, and then we can rebuild.”

Rebuilding the bureau in Comey’s image is a truly chilling notion. Those “good old days” with Comey allowed agents to launch a baseless Russian collusion investigation at the behest of the Clinton campaign and lie to a secret court to secure surveillance of Trump figures.

In the meantime, it will be Lineberger, not Comey, who will face a jury for the removal of confidential material.

For Lineberger, these types of charges tend to be cut-and-dried for prosecutors if they can show that the material was restricted and that she took steps to conceal the alleged theft. While she gained access before the court order, she allegedly transferred the material after the order and then hid the material in files labeled as cake recipes.  If those facts can be established in court, prosecutors likely believe that she can stick a fork in herself because she is done.

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the best-selling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”

Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/21/2026 – 09:00

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Renter Nation Returns? Multi-Family Unit Starts & Permits Soar In April

Renter Nation Returns? Multi-Family Unit Starts & Permits Soar In April

On the back of a small uptick in homebuilder confidence (though still languishing)…

Building Permits jumped notably (+5.8% MoM vs +2.5% exp) in preliminary April data (while Housing Starts dipped 2.8% MoM, though less than the 5.2% MoM decline expected)…

The pace of starts and permits on a SAAR basis has remained flat for four years…

Multi-family unit starts and permits soared in April…

As single-family home starts stagnate…

It appears builders believe that ‘Renter Nation’ is on its way back.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/21/2026 – 08:50

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Jobless Claims Refuse To Show Any Signs Of AI Jobpocalypse

Jobless Claims Refuse To Show Any Signs Of AI Jobpocalypse

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time fell to 209k last week (below expectations), continuing to show absolutely on signs of any labor market stress…

Source: Bloomberg

That is basically unchanged since 2021.

Continuing jobless claims ticked up modestly but remains below 1.8 million Americans (just off two year lows)…

Source: Bloomberg

So, despite the tsunami of headlines every day about the AI jobpocalypse, ‘hard’ data shows no signs of any pain yet (wait until the severance packages run dry)…

Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/21/2026 – 08:35

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