Shadow Wars: IRGC Operatives Tried To Infiltrate Kuwait, Firefight Ensues

Shadow Wars: IRGC Operatives Tried To Infiltrate Kuwait, Firefight Ensues

Kuwait and Iran are barely separated by a small section of Iraqi coastline at the head of the Persian Gulf, but they do share a maritime border. But given the small oil-rich Sunni sheikdom’s close proximity to the Islamic Republic, and give its historic role in hosting American forces and bases, it is to be expected that it would be heavily targeted in Iranian military operations.

Indeed, Kuwait has alongside the UAE absorbed some of the biggest ballistic missile and drone attacks out of Israel during the US-Israeli Operation Epic Fury. US forces have even had to retreat to other locations deeper in the Middle East or even outside the theatre, given the repeat attacks and looming threat of new attack even amid broader ceasefire.

But in tandem with an air war, there’s has been a covert war happening in the shadows, with Kuwait’s interior ministry newly announcing on Tuesday it has arrested four ‘infiltrators’ affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRGC). The ground attack incident is said to have happened earlier this month, and involved heavy exchanges of fire.

IRGC special operator, file image: Iran International

The elite IRGC operatives reportedly tried to enter the Gulf state by sea, per Kuwait state news agency KUNA. A likely firefight ensued, given the ministry confirmed one member of Kuwait’s armed forces was wounded in resulting clashes with the infiltrating small group of Iranians.

The Interior Ministry accused the IRGC operatives of seeking to launch “hostile” activities inside Kuwait. “Confession of the infiltration group to Kuwaiti territories during interrogation with them of their affiliation to the Revolutionary Guard in the Islamic Republic of Iran,” the ministry stated.

It appears that only two of the Iranian group are in custody while two escaped, per an initial statement. As for the operatives in custody, “They confessed to being tasked with infiltrating Bubiyan Island aboard a fishing boat rented specifically to carry out hostile acts against Kuwait,” the official Kuwaiti statement added.

Other sources, including the defense ministry, say that all four have been detained and identified, amid early conflicting reports:

Kuwait’s Defense Ministry reported on May 3 that naval Col. Amir Hossein Abdolmohammad Zaraei, naval Col. Abdolsamad Yedaleh Ghanavati, naval Capt. Ahmad Jamshid Gholamreza Zolfaghari and 1st Lt. Mohammad Hossein Sohrab Foroughi Rad had been arrested in territorial waters after attempting to infiltrate Bubiyan Island.

Kuwaiti Armed Forces stationed on Bubiyan Island exchanged fire with the men during the confrontation, resulting in severe injuries to one service member.

Bubiyan is the largest of a group of eight islands belonging to Kuwait, lying in the north-western corner of the Persian Gulf. Importantly, the large island is home to Mubarak Al Kabeer Port, part of China’s Belt and Road initiative.

That the alleged Iranian high-risk operation focused on an island with a key China-built port is quickly becoming focus of Western media reports. According to ABC:  

Kuwait accused Iran on Tuesday of sending an armed paramilitary Revolutionary Guard team to launch a failed attack earlier this month on an island in the Middle East nation home to a China-funded port project.

The accusation by Kuwait of an Iranian link to the incident came just before U.S. President Donald Trump travels to Beijing for a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Tehran has yet to acknowledge or own up to the incident, and is not expected to, unless it is an outright denial. 

One freight and oil transit industry headline from early March underscores just how ambitious and costly the China-backed project remains: Kuwait, China Advance USD 4.1 Billion Mubarak Al-Kabeer Port Project…

Kuwait and China have agreed to strengthen their commercial and maritime cooperation through the construction of a new container port on Kuwait’s Bubiyan Island. The project marks a significant step in deepening bilateral economic ties and enhancing the oil-rich country’s strategic position within regional shipping networks.

The Chinese majority state-owned firm China Communications Construction Company will undertake the Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) works for the project’s first phase.

The development of the new container hub in the north of the country is expected to expand Kuwait’s port capacity and reinforce its role in both regional and global trade flows.

Chinese-funded Mubarak Al-Kabeer Port project 

And yet, current Kuwait’s oil export flows remain forcibly halted, due to the Strait of Hormuz closure and ongoing standoff, which has on the one hand seen Iran target ‘unauthorized’ shipping with drones and missiles, and on the other seen the US Navy impose its own blockade of Iranian ports.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 05/12/2026 – 09:15

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First Houthi Drones Sent On Israel Since Iran Ceasefire Took Effect

First Houthi Drones Sent On Israel Since Iran Ceasefire Took Effect

In what appears to be the first Houthi attack out of Yemen since the broader Iran ceasefire came into place starting in early April, the Israel Defense Forces said a drone “launched from the east” was intercepted by the Israeli Air Force near the southernmost city of Eilat on Tuesday.

The IDF further indicated it is believed to have been launched from Yemen, although the IDF is still investigating its origin, according to Israeli media reports. Israel’s Channel 12 is citing that at least two drones were sent.

EPA-EFE

However, no sirens sounded, “according to protocol,” the military said further. The Iran-allied Houthi rebels had launched several missiles and drones at Israel during the war, in support of the Iranian side.

The Houthis also played a key role during the prior two-year Gaza war, during which time ballistic missiles targeted Israel on a weekly basis, and shipping and in the Red Sea was essentially halted due to the threat of Houthi attacks.

The Shia military group further has demonstrated its ability to reach and disrupt several of Israel’s airports, including the key international bub of Ben Gurion airport.

Throughout Trump’s Operation Epic Fury and Project Freedom the Houthis have surprisingly stayed relatively quiet and on the sidelines. But they hold a big card in alliance with Iran – the threat of again shuttering vital Red Sea shipping and seriously denting Suez Canal traffic.

In the meantime, the close cooperation between Iran and the Houthis continues to be on display when it comes to weapons manufacturing and transfers:

The Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen continue to use Iranian components in drones, according to a new report. For instance, “external support remains a key factor in the Houthis’ ability to sustain operations,” notes Conflict Armament Research (CAR), which compiled the report.

This is important as it illustrates how the Houthis continue to assemble advanced weapons. Any future conflict with them will need to take this into account. The Houthis burst onto the scene in 2015, moving from the mountains of Yemen and trying to take the port city of Aden.

Going back to the start of the war with the Saudis and Emirates over a decade ago, it was well understood by Western intelligence that the Houthis were able to achieve impressive ballistic missile capabilities due to the close relationship with Tehran.

via Al Jazeera

At various times over the years, vessels bound for Yemen were intercepted by US military ships, and found to be transferring guns, ammo, or missile parts. Iranian parts continue to be frequently found in Houthis weapons systems.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 05/12/2026 – 08:45

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US Consumer Prices Are Rising At Their Fastest Pace In 3 Years

US Consumer Prices Are Rising At Their Fastest Pace In 3 Years

Bearing in mind the one-off impact of BLS correcting for shutdown-related distortions (in rent/shelter) from last October., this morning’s CPI was expected to come in hot as the impact of the Iran war starts to spread (energy, airfares, transport) and the melt-up in memory costs (unrelated to war) as the token wars continue.

As a reminder, March saw headline CPI in line (energy) while Core CPI actually printed cooler than expected. and we suspect most attention will be on the Core side again today with investors ‘looking through’ short-term energy-driven cost pressures.

Headline CPI rose 0.6% MoM (as expected), pulling headline up 3.8% YoY (hotter than the 3.7% expected) and the hottest since May 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

Energy and Food costs dominated the rise in headline CPI along with Core Services…

Source: Bloomberg

CPI highlights:

MoM energy rose 3.8% in April, accounting for over forty percent of the monthly all items increase. The shelter index also increased in April, rising 0.6%. The index for food increased 0.5% over the month as the index for food at home rose 0.7% and the index for food away from home increased 0.2%. YoY CPI energy index increased 17.9% for the 12 months ending April. The food index increased 3.2% over the last year.

CPI Food:

  • The index for food rose 0.5% in April after being unchanged in March. The food at home index increased 0.7% over the month.
  • Five of the six major grocery store food group indexes increased in April. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs increased 1.3 percent over the month as the index for beef rose 2.7 percent.
  • The fruits and vegetables index increased 1.8% in April and the nonalcoholic beverages index rose 1.1%.
  • The index for dairy and related products increased 0.8% over the month and the index for cereals and bakery products rose 0.1% in April.
  • In contrast, the index for other food at home fell 0.4% in April after being unchanged in March.
  • The food away from home index rose 0.2% in April.
  • The index for limited service meals rose 0.4% over the month and the index for full service meals rose 0.1 percent.

CPI Energy:

  • The index for energy increased 3.8% in April, after rising 10.9% in March. The gasoline index increased 5.4% over the month. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices increased 11.1% in April.)
  • The index for electricity rose 2.1% in April. The fuel oil index increased 5.8% over the month.
  • Conversely, the index for natural gas decreased 0.1% over the same period.

New- and Used-Vehicle prices remain stable as Shelter jumped (as expected)…

On a short-term annualized basis, it’s all about Energy…

But, the surge in the Energy subcomponent of CPI is perhaps peaking as oil has stabilized/eased. 

Source: Bloomberg

Core CPI rose more than expected in April (up 0.4% MoM vs +0.3% exp), pulling the YoY rise in prices up by 2.8% (also hotter than expected).

Source: Bloomberg

While that is the highest since Sept 2025, it is clear that whatever impact the war is having, it is not spreading wildly into the broad market… yet.

However, Core Services dominated the price rises (perhaps some energy cost impact pull-through)…

Closer look at Core CPI which rose 0.4% in April, after rising 0.2% in each of the 2 preceding months.

  • The shelter index increased 0.6% over the month.

    • The index for owners’ equivalent rent and the index for rent both increased 0.5% in April.

    • The lodging away from home index rose 2.4% over the month.

  • The index for household furnishings and operations increased 0.7% over the month, after rising 0.2% in March.

  • The airline fares index rose 2.8% in April and the personal care index rose 0.7%.

  • The index for apparel rose 0.6% over the month and the index for education rose 0.2% in April.

  • The recreation index and the motor vehicle insurance index each increased 0.1% in April.

  • The new vehicles index and the communication index each declined 0.2% in April.

  • The index for used cars and trucks was unchanged over the month.

  • The medical care index decreased 0.1% in April, after falling 0.2% in March.

    • The index for hospital services decreased 0.3 percent over the month.

    • Conversely, the physicians’ services index increased 0.6 percent over the month while the prescription drugs index was unchanged in April.

CPI Core rose 2.8% YoY: the shelter index increased 3.3% over the last year. Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include medical care (+2.5 percent), airline fares (+20.7 percent), household furnishings and operations (+3.9 percent), and recreation (+2.3 percent).

Here’s the one time CPI adjustment in shelter:

Rent Inflation +0.49% in April after 0.16% in March; biggest monthly increase since Oct 2023; 
Rent inflation +2.79% YoY, up from 2.56% in March and highest since January 2026

Shelter inflation 0.61% in April after 0.40% in March, biggest monthly increase since Jan 2024;
Shelter inflation +3.30% in April, up from 3.02% in March and highest since Oct 2025.

Perhaps most notably, Real Wages are shrinking on a YoY basis (for the first time since April 2023)…

Finally, are we really ready for a 70s-style rebound in inflation?

Bonds may be hinting but stocks certainly are not, even as consumer sentiment hits rock bottom.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 05/12/2026 – 08:39

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Lawsuit Against UW Social Work School Over Retaliation for Allegedly Anti-Trans Essay Can Go Forward

From yesterday’s decision by Judge David Estudillo (W.D. Wash.) in Arias v. Univ. of Wash. Tacoma:

For purposes of the present motion, and resolving the disputed material facts in Plaintiff’s favor, the Court finds:

Plaintiff’s interaction with Defendant Vern Harner on April 20, 2023 was “momentary.” Plaintiff mentioned she was thinking about focusing her zine project on women’s rights and showed Harner her computer screen with a Google search for an article available; she “did not have any article open.” Harner did not say much but told Plaintiff to make sure the source Plaintiff planned to use was reputable. Harner did not tell Plaintiff that her project idea violated social work values and ethics.

Either later that day or the next day, Harner identified and reviewed an article that Harner believed Plaintiff had open on her computer. Harner believed Plaintiff’s planned zine project was on “the issue of ‘trans’ people sexually assaulting others in prison,” a topic Harner found “so many issues with.” One issue was Plaintiff’s alleged reliance on the article as a source, which among other things, Harner identified as being “full of TERF and far right dog whistles and talking points.” {TERF appears to refer to trans-exclusionary radical feminism.} Harner sought advice from Defendant Claudia Sellmaier, explaining Harner’s impressions of Plaintiff to Sellmaier.

On April 27, 2023, Plaintiff presented Harner with her draft zine project sometime after 11:30 a.m. Harner planned three-to-five minutes with each student that morning. Harner did not identify why Plaintiff’s project targeted transgender people or what specific social work standards Harner believed Plaintiff violated. Plaintiff expressed she did not understand why her project was not considered a social justice issue.

Harner became visibly upset reviewing and discussing the draft zine, eventually throwing their hands in the air and telling Plaintiff, “[t]his is targeting transgender.” Their interaction ended and at some point Plaintiff asked to meet later that day with Harner, but Harner stated they were unavailable that day.

Sometime in the afternoon of April 27, 2023, Harner contacted the Dean of the School of Social Work (Defendant Keva Miller) to report the interactions with Plaintiff. Based on Harner’s description of the events, Miller recommended Harner initiate a PSC referral.

At 2:12 p.m., Harner sent Plaintiff an email informing her they could not meet that afternoon. Harner directed Plaintiff to contact Sellmaier and Chris Barrans for any further questions or concerns. Harner told Plaintiff her draft project was “harmful and not aligned with social work values & ethics” and attached to the email three links for Plaintiff to review, but did not explain to Plaintiff why the draft project was harmful or not aligned with social work values and ethics. Harner also told Plaintiff further discussion could be had “about the intersection of trans rights and women’s rights when that conversation is approached appropriately and in good faith.”

By 2:50 p.m., 38 minutes after sending the email to Plaintiff, Harner had completed and emailed a Professional Standards Committee (“PSC”) referral form. In their referral, Harner asserted Plaintiff’s proposed zine project topic was “extremely anti-trans,” that Harner suspected Plaintiff had sent Harner an anonymous email a few weeks prior, that Plaintiff did not believe her proposed topic was misaligned with social work values, and that Plaintiff “sees women’s & trans rights as competing issues.” As to why Harner decided not to inform Plaintiff of the PSC review request, Harner identified they had “connected” Plaintiff with the BASW chair and the faculty advisor and identified that “further escalation may include safety concerns.” Nothing in the record identifies why Harner believed there were safety concerns. The PSC referral form also does not identify any social work standards that were violated.

The PSC convened a meeting on May 16, even after Plaintiff expressed concerns about the fact Harner had not tried to resolve the issue with her first. No one at the PSC meeting identified which social work standards were violated. The PSC committee also declined to identify the specific standards that were violated in email communications with Plaintiff after the PSC meeting. Only in Plaintiff’s termination letter did Defendants identify what social work standards had been violated. The letter also fully credited Harner’s description of the events of April 20 and 27. It explained that the reason Harner made the PSC referral on April 27 was because Plaintiff had not reconsidered her draft topic and “did not arrange to stop by Dr. Harner’s office to discuss the matter further” on April 27. But the record shows Harner was not available to meet with Plaintiff after class on April 27, that Plaintiff was directed to speak with others, and that 38 minutes after communicating this information to Plaintiff, Harner submitted a PSC referral alleging a potential safety concern.

The court concluded that, based on this, plaintiff’s First Amendment objections to the PSC referral could go to the jury:

Based on the above facts, a jury could find that Harner had a personal disagreement with Plaintiff’s views on transgender issues, that this personal disagreement was the motivation for initiating the PSC referral, that Harner’s personal disagreement tainted the PSC process, and that Defendants’ ultimate decision to withdraw Plaintiff from the PSC program was based on personal disagreements with Plaintiff’s views and not on defined professional standards.

The court also concluded the same about plaintiff’s breach of contract claim:

Plaintiff asserted Harner did not comply with Manual language requiring that “individuals who are directly involved should make a concerted effort to resolve the concern prior to a referral to the PSC” and stated in her breach of contract claim that UWT failed to “follow[] the policy measures it had implemented and promised [Plaintiff].” Plaintiff also identified UWT’s Mission Statement, Race & Equity Initiative, and Diversity Blueprint and other “fundamental principles of inclusion and expression embodied in its own written policies and promises” and asserted UWT violated its promise to “conform[] with academic standards espoused in governing documents as expressed above in the factual allegations.” …

Here, the PSC guidelines found in the Program Manual directs that individuals, in this case Harner, involved in a concern “should make a concerted effort to resolve the concern prior to referral to the PSC.” UWT also acknowledges it has “the obligation to maintain conditions conducive to freedom of inquiry and expression to the maximum degree compatible with the orderly conduct of its functions.”

These provisions give rise to a reasonable expectation that a student, such as Plaintiff, would not face sanctions based on a professor’s personal disagreement with the student’s views on transgender issues and that the student would be given the opportunity to resolve a concern before being referred to the PSC.

Joan K. Mell (III Branches Law PLLC) represents Arias.

The post Lawsuit Against UW Social Work School Over Retaliation for Allegedly Anti-Trans Essay Can Go Forward appeared first on Reason.com.

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No First Amendment Violation in Ohio Closing DEI-Related Offices and Committees

From Rice v. Schell, decided two weeks ago by Judge Matthew McFarland (S.D. Ohio), but just posted on Westlaw a few days ago:

Plaintiff Darryl Rice serves as a tenured and endowed associate professor of management for the Farmer School of Business at Miami University in Oxford, Ohio. For over a decade, Plaintiff has taught courses such as Diversity and Cross-Cultural Management, participated in Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (“DEI”) programming, and contributed to entities like DEI-based committees at Miami University. In April 2025, Miami University began to wind down certain programs and entities related to DEI. Specifically, the following entities were eventually discontinued: (1) the Office of Transformational and Inclusive Excellence, (2) the Farmer School of Business DEI Service Committee, (3) the Center for Student Diversity and Inclusion, (4) Miami Regional’s Center for DEI, (5) the Department of Management DEI Service Committee, (6) Miami University’s Across-the-Divide Conference, (7) the Office of Transformational and Inclusive Excellence Newsletter, (8) the Inclusive Excellence Faculty Fellows Program, (9) the DEI Mastermind Program, (10) the Diversity and Inclusion Networking Event, (11) DEI Professional Development Day, as well as other activities that Plaintiff had used to fulfill his service obligations. For purposes of Miami University’s Tenure Track Guidelines, “service” obligations include “activities which contribute to the University’s and/or the campus’s mission,” serving on committees, and providing continuing education programs if they are not already incorporated within the “teaching” category.

Miami University explained to Plaintiff that these closures were mandated by the Advance Ohio Higher Education Act (“S.B. 1”). That being said, Miami University began the process of closures and reorganization before S.B. 1 officially took effect. The Court pauses here to highlight particularly relevant portions of S.B. 1. This legislation commands that “the board of trustees of each state institution of higher education shall adopt and the institution shall enforce a policy” prohibiting, among other things, the following:

(1) Any orientation or training course regarding diversity, equity, and inclusion [unless an exception applies];

(2) The continuation of existing diversity, equity, and inclusion offices or departments; and

(3) Establishing new diversity, equity, and inclusion offices or departments….

Moreover, the statute reads: “Nothing in this section prohibits faculty or students from classroom instruction, discussion, or debate, so long as faculty members allow students to express intellectual diversity.” …

Plaintiff sued, claiming that the law violated, among other things, the First Amendment, but the court disagreed:

It … proves helpful to contextualize this matter by emphasizing what is at issue and—perhaps just as importantly—what is not at issue. This is not a case involving allegations that the Government is compelling particular speech. This is not a case in which a university itself brings suit to enjoin a law. This is not a case in which students allege constitutional violations. This is not a case in which a plaintiff has been threatened with disciplinary action for certain speech. This is not a case involving allegations of a professor’s speech being stymied in the classroom or on the campus green. Rather, this dispute centers around a professor who brings suit to enjoin a university to reestablish certain committees, programming, and events….

In the watershed case of Garcetti v. Ceballos (2006), the Supreme Court held “that when public employees make statements pursuant to their official duties, the employees are not speaking as citizens for First Amendment purposes, and the Constitution does not insulate their communications from employer discipline.” The majority in Garcetti, however, left open whether this analysis “would apply in the same manner to a case involving speech related to scholarship or teaching.” The Sixth Circuit spoke on this precise question years later in Meriwether v. Hartop (6th Cir. 2021), by holding that “professors at public universities retain First Amendment protections at least when engaged in core academic functions, such as teaching and scholarship.” The term “core academic functions” has since been extended to encompass—at least as to the facts in one particular case—a professor’s panel remarks that stemmed from his scholarship and subject of expertise.

On the one hand, Defendants assert that Plaintiff’s participation in the DEI-related activities does not constitute teaching, scholarship, or “core academic functions” as contemplated in Meriwether. It is worth noting that Plaintiff confirmed during the hearing that his allegations do not address his teaching, scholarship, or research. Instead, Plaintiff contends that his participation in the DEI-related entities amounted to core academic functions because Miami University’s policy lists “professional and institutional service and committee assignments” as among the “primary duties” of tenured faculty. This line of reasoning might suggest that “professional and institutional service and committee assignments” are part of Plaintiff’s official duties as a tenured professor. However, without more, it does not necessarily follow that such official duties are “core academic functions, such as teaching and scholarship.” …

Plaintiff relies on Meriwether. The facts of that case are quite distinct, however. The professor in Meriwether brought suit because the university compelled him to use certain in-classroom speech (i.e., the preferred pronouns of a student) at the threat of discipline. Accordingly, Meriwether involved “a professor’s in-class speech to his students” and thus implicated the quintessentially core academic function of teaching students within the classroom. Here, Plaintiff does not contend that his in-class speech has been restricted in any way…. And, even beyond the classroom, Plaintiff does not allege that he has been compelled or barred from speaking. Rather, Plaintiff argues that Defendants have violated his First Amendment rights by discontinuing certain committees, university-created entities, and programs….

Here, Miami University created certain programs, committees, and entities but recently decided to discontinue them. Plaintiff specifically names (1) the Office of Transformational and Inclusive Excellence, (2) the Farmer School of Business DEI Service Committee, (3) the Center for Student Diversity and Inclusion, (4) Miami Regional’s Center for DEI, (5) the Department of Management DEI Service Committee, (6) Miami University’s DEI Conference, (7) the Office of Transformational and Inclusive Excellence Newsletter, (8) the Inclusive Excellence Faculty Fellows Program, (9) the DEI Mastermind Program, (10) the Diversity and Inclusion Networking Event, (11) DEI Professional Development Day, as well as other activities that Plaintiff had used to fulfill his service obligations….

[T]he record remains undeveloped as to the precise nature of these entities and the extent of Plaintiff’s participation. Nuance in this realm deserves attention because “the First Amendment must always be applied in light of the special characteristics of the environment in the particular case.” Since Plaintiff has not provided sufficient allegations and legal reasoning to demonstrate how discontinuation of his preferred university programs and entities amounts to a violation of his First Amendment rights, he has not shown a strong likelihood of success…..

Ann Yackshaw (Ohio AG’s office) and Heather Van Hull, Richard L. Creighton Jr., and Christo Valantou Fosse (Keating Muething & Klekamp) represent the defendants.

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Clarence Thomas Sets a New SCOTUS Record


05.11.26-v1 | Credit: Eric Lee/POOL/ZUMAPRESS/Newscom

Last week, Clarence Thomas became the second-longest serving justice in the history of the U.S. Supreme Court. If he remains on the bench through 2028, he will surpass the Franklin D. Roosevelt-appointed William O. Douglas as the longest-serving justice of them all.

Like it or not, Thomas will also go down in the books as one of the most influential justices in SCOTUS history. “In one big case after another, from the expansion of gun rights to the elimination of the constitutional right to abortion, Thomas’ long-held views either commanded or inspired the majority of the Court.” I wrote those words about the Supreme Court’s 2021–2022 term, which included such momentous decisions as New York State Rifle and Pistol Association v. Bruen and Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization.

Thomas’ impact on the current SCOTUS term has been a little more uneven, at least so far. While his longstanding hostility towards a broad reading of the Voting Rights Act was reflected in Louisiana v. Callais, his embrace of broad executive power was rejected in Learning Resources v. Trump, prompting Thomas to pen a bitter and deeply misguided dissent. As of this writing, there are still 11 big cases left to be decided in the Court’s 2025–2026 term, so the full impact of Thomas’ jurisprudence on those important disputes remains to be seen.

Currently sitting behind Thomas in the number three spot on the list of longest-serving Supreme Court justices is an Abraham Lincoln appointee named Stephen Field. There are certain interesting parallels between Field and Thomas. Perhaps the most notable of which is that they both spent most of their SCOTUS careers writing in dissent. Indeed, Field just barely remained on the bench long enough to see his signature constitutional vision accepted by the majority. But accepted it was, and to lasting effect. Field’s 1873 dissent in The Slaughter-House Cases was basically adopted by the Supreme Court in 1897 and then further embraced in 1905’s Lochner v. New York, a landmark case with many far-reaching impacts. Field’s career is thus a testament to the fact that a future Supreme Court always can, and sometimes will, overrule a past Supreme Court’s “settled” decisions.

A similar dynamic has been happening in recent years with Thomas. From guns to abortion to affirmative action, many of Thomas’ formerly dissenting views are now reflected in majority opinions. Like Field before him, Thomas will have an influence that is felt long after he is gone from the bench.

In Other Legal News

You may have heard about a viral social media post written by ace Supreme Court lawyer Neal Katyal. In it, Katyal, who presented the winning oral arguments in the case against President Donald Trump’s tariffs, credited the use of artificial intelligence as part of his preparation for that big SCOTUS showdown. Katyal’s tweet quickly sparked a big debate among legal professionals over the use of AI in their work. Katyal’s bragging tone also raised a number of disapproving eyebrows. “Five months ago, I argued against the President’s $4 trillion tariffs at the Supreme Court,” Katyal posted on X. “In 237 years, the Court had never struck down a sitting President’s signature initiative. Legal scholars said it was impossible. Some of my own colleagues said it was impossible. We won. 6-3.” The legal commentator David Lat has written a very handy summary of the whole brouhaha, and in his judgment, Katyal’s post was “Supremely Cringe.”

I don’t have much to add to the discussion except to note that Katyal may have overstated the historic nature of his victory. In 1935, the Supreme Court unanimously struck down the National Industrial Recovery Act in the case of Schechter Poultry Co. v. United States. Passed in 1933, the National Industrial Recovery Act was the centerpiece of the New Deal, hailed by President Franklin Roosevelt himself as “the most important and far-reaching legislation ever enacted by the American Congress.” So I don’t think it would be too much to say that the Supreme Court also struck down that “sitting president’s signature initiative.”

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‘Could Resonate Globally’: Korea Sparks Market Chaos With ‘AI Tax’ Threat

‘Could Resonate Globally’: Korea Sparks Market Chaos With ‘AI Tax’ Threat

Korean markets were under pressure overnight after politicians floated the idea of tapping AI profits. 

Bloomberg reports that a top South Korean policymaker said the nation should pay citizens a ‘dividend’ using taxes on AI profits, with the obvious read through to Samsung and SK Hynix. 

The comments in a Facebook post by presidential policy chief Kim Yong-beom fueled sharp swings in Korean stocks on Tuesday as investors struggled to parse the scope of the proposals.

“Excess profits in the AI era are, by nature, concentrated,” Kim wrote.

Memory companies, core engineers and asset holders in Seoul are highly likely to receive substantial benefits, while much of the middle class may experience only indirect effects, he said.

The size of any potential dividend, and other details on how Kim’s proposals might be implemented, weren’t immediately clear.

Still, investors took notice.

“After some 80% gain this year, the market was getting sensitive to any news that can trigger investor jitters,” said Kim Dojoon, chief investment officer at Zian Investment Management.

“Policy chief Kim’s post was easy to draw misunderstanding from the market at such a moment.”

The benchmark KOSPI initially plunged as much as 5.1% (more than $300 billion in market cap)…

The weakness spread into Europe and is dragging down Nasdaq futures in the pre-market…

But, as the impact of his statement spread across markets, damage control quickly hit with the influential policy adviser clarifying he wanted to tap “excess tax revenue” generated from the AI boom, rather than roll out a new windfall levy on corporate profits.

An official at the president’s office told Bloomberg News that Kim’s remarks represented his personal opinion and weren’t the subject of formal discussions.

However, the episode is the latest example of politicians calling attention to how the advent of AI risks widening the gap between the haves and have-nots.

In South Korea, that concern has surfaced in public calls for industry leaders to share more of the spoils of the global AI infrastructure rollout.

While Kim’s ideas are preliminary, if they were to be rolled out it would mark one of the first concerted government efforts to share the proceeds of the boom.

As Goldman’s One-Delta desk-head, Rich Privorotsky, noted this morning, this feels like a theme that could resonate globally given the extreme concentration of AI earnings and the fact that the benefits skew so disproportionately to mega cap winners. 

The  speed of fast money/retail chasing semis, plus the proliferation of 2x/3x levered structures in Korea and the US, gives me pause about the fragility building into this rally but obviously the core of thesis, ‘we need more tokens’ remains unshaken.

 

Tyler Durden
Tue, 05/12/2026 – 08:14

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HIMS Shares Plunge As Pivot To Branded GLP-1s Weighs On Outlook

HIMS Shares Plunge As Pivot To Branded GLP-1s Weighs On Outlook

Hims & Hers shares tumbled in premarket trading in New York, the most in three months, after the company posted a first-quarter loss and revenue that missed analyst estimates tracked by Bloomberg, as costs rose amid a massive pivot from selling copycat GLP-1 drugs toward branded obesity drugs from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.

Revenue for the first quarter came in at $608 million versus the $617.5 million Bloomberg Consensus estimate, while the telehealth firm swung to a loss of 40 cents a share from a 20-cent profit a year earlier. 

HIMS recorded $33.5 million in restructuring charges, including inventory write-downs and transition costs. 

“This was an incredibly valuable transition,” HIMS CEO Andrew Dudum told analysts on an earnings call. “We are seeing adoption and weight-loss near-record levels, even beyond the demand we saw following this year’s New Year’s and Super Bowl campaigns.”

Here’s a snapshot of the 1Q earnings (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Revenue $608.1 million, +3.8% y/y, estimate $617.5 million (Bloomberg Consensus)

Loss per share 40c vs. EPS 20c y/y

Adjusted Ebitda $44.3 million, -51% y/y, estimate $46.1 million

Gross margin 65% vs. 73% y/y, estimate 71.7%

Total subscribers 2.58 million, +9.2% y/y, estimate 2.58 million

Operating expense $475.1 million, +27% y/y, estimate $446.2 million

HIMS issued a mixed outlook: It raised its full-year revenue outlook to $2.8 billion to $3 billion, while slashing adjusted Ebitda guidance to $275 million to $350 million.

2Q Forecast:

Sees revenue $680 million to $700 million, estimate $644.5 million

Sees adjusted Ebitda $35 million to $55 million, estimate $70.1 million

Full Year Forecast:

Sees adjusted Ebitda $275 million to $350 million, saw $300 million to $375 million, estimate $319.3 million

Sees revenue $2.8 billion to $3.0 billion, estimate $2.75 billion

In premarket trading, HIMS shares fell 15%, the most since early February. The stock is down about 10% on the year, as of Monday’s close.

Wall Street analysts described the first quarter as messy:

Citi (neutral/high risk)

  • Hims is in a transition phase as it reduces reliance on compounded GLP-1s and refocuses its business on branded products, new offerings and international expansion, says analyst Daniel Grosslight

  • While that has led to impressive revenue growth, near-term profitability will likely suffer

  • With gross margin under pressure and limited ability to reduce operating expenses, much of the margin uplift must come from expanding monthly GLP-1 subscribers, which introduces incremental risks to financial models

Morgan Stanley (equal-weight)

  • While management has an ambitious strategy on prioritizing growth, that will require some patience on margins, says analyst Craig Hettenbach

  • On a brighter note, international sales appeared strong

  • For more durable gains in the stock, positive Ebitda revisions are likely needed

Keybanc Capital Markets (sector weight)

  • Hims’ product transitions are creating near-term noise in financials, says analyst Justin Patterson

  • Annual guidance suggests that cost headwinds should moderate in 2H, creating potential for revenue re-acceleration with better margins

  • Given the historical volatility in the stock, preference is to revisit the equity when new products are showing more traction and margins are starting to improve

Evercore ISI (in-line)

  • “At the margin, we are more cautious,” says analyst Mark Mahaney

  • Suggests investors to wait for a better entry point as Hims transitions to branded GLP-1 products, or proves out either leg of the bull case: international expansion or diversification of products beyond weight loss

  • “We believe the right call here on HIMS shares is to stay on the sidelines and remain patient”

HIMS’ pivot from copycat GLP-1 drugs to branded therapies follows its new partnership with Novo, which ended months of legal battles between the two companies. Under the agreement, HIMS said it would prioritize FDA-approved obesity drugs.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 05/12/2026 – 07:45

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Jet Fuel Shortage Deepens Pressure On Global Airlines

Jet Fuel Shortage Deepens Pressure On Global Airlines

Via City AM,

  • Heathrow’s April passenger numbers fell 5% to 6.7 million, with Middle East traffic down 50%.

  • Transfer traffic rose 10% as travellers rerouted through Heathrow to Asia and Oceania.

  • Airlines are facing mounting pressure from jet fuel shortages and higher oil prices.

Fewer passengers were heading to Heathrow Airport in April as the war in the Middle East keeps travellers grounded.

Passenger numbers at Europe’s biggest airport fell by five per cent in April to 6.7m with the blame being attributed to the “ongoing impact of the Middle East conflict”.

For those heading to that particular region, Heathrow saw a whopping 50 per cent drop in volumes.

Still, in the year-to-date (Jan–Apr) traffic maintained modest growth at 1.2 per cent.

Transfer demand grew ten per cent in April, as travellers rerouted through Heathrow to reach Asia and Oceania, helping offset losses in direct Middle Eastern travel.

Travel to Asia remained a major growth driver, with a 5.6 per cent increase in April and a 10.6 per cent increase year-to-date.

“We know passengers want certainty when planning their hard-earned summer holidays, so we are supporting Government and airlines as they work through their plans to get passengers on their journeys,” Thomas Woldbye, Heathrow’s top boss, said. 

Jet fuel crisis ‘worse’ than Covid

Growing anxieties around the jet fuel shortage caused by the Iran war have rocked the travel industry.

Tony Fernandes, chief executive of Air Asia, said last week: “I thought I’d seen it all with Covid […] but having seen jet fuel go up almost three times — this is much worse.”

It comes after supplies for jet fuel have tumbled to their lowest level since records began, as the war blocks crucial shipping lanes for fuel.

Spirit Airlines – a US-based low-cost airline – last week collapsed under mounting pressure caused by surging oil prices. The firm had failed to secure a $500m lifeline from the Trump administration, leaving it to go out of business and cancel all flights.

Researchers at Allianz Trade warned the UK is among the most “structurally exposed” to jet fuel shortages.

Meanwhile, transport secretary Heidi Alexander has loosened “use it or lose it” rules in a bid to soften the pressures facing airlines.

Woldbye said: “While we have seen some short-term disruption linked to the Middle East conflict, demand for travel remains strong with current fuel supplies stable.”

Tyler Durden
Tue, 05/12/2026 – 07:20

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