“AI is the Democratic Party’s Next Villain”

Another very interesting item from my Hoover colleague Andy Hall (Free Systems); a brief excerpt, though you should read the whole thing:

Something is shifting in the Democratic party. A string of primary upsets has fed a growing narrative that the party’s base now rewards a more aggressive brand of economic populism, one aimed squarely at billionaires, corporate power, and the political influence that money buys. And a number of sharp observers, including Jasmine Sun [piece here] and Archie Hall [piece here], have been arguing that this energy may come for AI next, a prediction that draws support from David Shor’s polling showing voters souring on the technology and on the companies building it as part of a broader concern towards what they see as a rigged economy and a hopeless cost-of-living crisis.

But almost all of the evidence behind this narrative describes the mood of the American electorate, and moods are only half of the story. Politicians do not respond mechanically to shifts in public sentiment—they answer to donors, activists, and primary challengers, not just median voters … and sometimes they stake out new positions well before the public asks for them, or refuse to move long after it has. If we want to know whether AI populism is becoming an organizing position of the Democratic party, rather than a diffuse sentiment floating around in polls, we need to measure the politicians directly. We need to watch what candidates actually say when they are trying to raise money, to garner attention, and to win elections.

Fundraising emails turn out to be a remarkably good place to look. Campaigns test these messages relentlessly against open rates and donations, so the language that survives is the language that operatives have learned actually moves their base—a compressed, high-frequency, almost real-time record of what politicians believe their supporters want to hear. Drawing on Derek Willis’s archive of political fundraising emails, we analyzed roughly 280,000 candidate emails sent since 2017 to trace how anti-billionaire populism became a major component of Democratic fundraising rhetoric, and how, more quietly but unmistakably, AI is starting to follow the same path….

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The Supreme Court’s ‘Reasonable Expectation of Privacy’ Test Defies Expectations


An illustration of the Supreme Court building | Midjourney

When he was arrested in 1965, Charles Katz “was probably the preeminent college basketball handicapper in America.” Or so says Harvey Schneider, who presumably should know, since he later represented Katz at the Supreme Court in a landmark Fourth Amendment case.

The Court’s 1967 decision in Katz v. United States, which held that the Constitution’s prohibition of “unreasonable searches and seizures” applies when people have a “reasonable expectation of privacy,” continues to shape Fourth Amendment rulings six decades later. That was clear on June 29, when the Court decided Chatrie v. United States, holding that a government-ordered analysis of cellphone location data qualifies as a “search” under the Fourth Amendment.

“An individual has a reasonable expectation of privacy in records about his cell phone’s location, and police intrude on that constitutionally protected interest when they demand the information,” Justice Elena Kagan wrote in an opinion joined by four of her colleagues. Justice Neil Gorsuch agreed with the result but not the rationale. The Katz test, he complained, “has no basis in the Constitution’s text or history.” He added that it has proven unworkable in practice because it has never been clear how courts should determine whether an expectation of privacy is “reasonable.”

Gorsuch is surely right that the Katz test has produced inconsistent and puzzling results. In cases addressing intrusions such as trash searches, demands for bank and telephone records, surveillance by low-flying aircraft, and police trespassing on private property, the Supreme Court has perceived no expectations of privacy it was prepared to recognize as reasonable. Applying the same test, it has repeatedly ruled that the Fourth Amendment does not apply to information that people voluntarily share with third parties. Yet the Court has repeatedly rebelled at the disturbing implications of that principle without explicitly renouncing it.

That is what happened in Chatrie, which involved a Virginia bank robbery investigation. Police used a “geofence” warrant to identify the perpetrator by requiring Google to search customer data collected by its Location History feature, which tracks the whereabouts of cellphone users. For reasons that are not entirely clear, the Court declined to apply the third-party doctrine, instead reverting to the original, unmodified Katz test.

A better approach, Gorsuch argued, would be to treat Location History records as “effects” covered by the Fourth Amendment—as a form of personal property, in other words. While it is not clear exactly how that property-rights approach would work in other contexts, it does seem less malleable than the Katz test, which gives courts wide discretion in discerning expectations and deciding whether they are reasonable. Gorsuch aptly likened the Court’s understanding of that test to its definition of obscenity in the 1960s: “We know a ‘reasonable expectation of privacy’ (and an exception to the third party doctrine) when we see it.”

The Roots of the ‘Reasonable Expectation’ Test

To understand why the object of Gorsuch’s ire seemed like a good idea at the time, it helps to review the facts of Katz’s case. The bookie, who had an apartment on Sunset Boulevard in Los Angeles that the Associated Press described as “expensive,” would often conduct his business from one of three telephone booths near his building, which proved to be his downfall.

After FBI agents “got wind of Katz’s activities and set out to arrest him,” Schneider says, they devised “a rather elaborate plan to do so.” First, “the agents obtained the telephone
company’s consent to put one of the telephone booths out of order.” Then they attached microphones to the roofs of the other two booths. The microphones, which were wired to a recorder on top of one booth, captured Katz’s voice as he made calls to Boston and Miami, relaying bets on basketball games, including contests pitting Duquesne University against St. Bonaventure College and Temple against Lafayette.

Katz’s phone calls violated 18 USC 1084, which made it a federal crime for someone “engaged in the business of betting or wagering” to transmit wagers on sporting events or information facilitating such bets “in interstate or foreign commerce” via a “wire communication facility.” A federal judge in Los Angeles convicted Katz of eight counts and imposed a $300 fine—about $3,200 today.

On appeal, Katz argued that the evidence collected by the FBI’s recorder should have been suppressed because the Fourth Amendment requires a warrant for such eavesdropping. He relied on Silverman v. United States, a 1961 Supreme Court case that also involved a gambling investigation. To verify their suspicions that a row house was “the headquarters of a gambling operation,” District of Columbia police officers drove a “spike mike” into the wall of an adjoining house with the owner’s permission. The microphone made contact with a heating duct in the suspects’ house, enabling the cops to overhear their conversations.

“The eavesdropping was accomplished by means of an unauthorized physical penetration into the premises occupied by the petitioners,” Justice Potter Stewart wrote in the majority opinion. “Eavesdropping accomplished by means of such a physical intrusion is beyond the pale of even those decisions in which a closely divided Court has held that eavesdropping accomplished by other electronic means did not amount to an invasion of Fourth Amendment rights.”

One of the precedents Stewart had in mind was Olmstead v. United States, a 1928 case in which the Court concluded that wiretapping did not implicate the Fourth Amendment. Another relevant decision was the Court’s 1942 ruling in Goldman v. United States, which held that federal agents did not violate the Fourth Amendment when they eavesdropped on the conversations of criminal suspects by placing a “detectaphone” against the wall of an adjoining room. Stewart saw an important difference between remote wiretapping or listening through a wall and poking a microphone into a suspect’s property.

Unfortunately for Katz, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit thought the FBI’s eavesdropping on him more closely resembled the facts of Goldman. “There was no physical penetration inside of the booths,” the 9th Circuit noted when it rejected Katz’s appeal in November 1966.

A year later in Katz v. United States, the Supreme Court deemed that detail irrelevant. Writing for the majority, Stewart said “the underpinnings of Olmstead and Goldman have been so eroded by our subsequent decisions that the ‘trespass’ doctrine there enunciated can no longer be regarded as controlling.” The main point, Stewart said, was that the FBI had “violated the privacy upon which [Katz] justifiably relied while using the telephone booth.” In other words, Justice John Marshall Harlan II said in a concurring opinion, the Fourth Amendment applies when someone has an “expectation of privacy” that “society is prepared to recognize as ‘reasonable.'”

‘The Limits of Katz‘s Reach’

When it sided with Katz, the Supreme Court said the Fourth Amendment’s scope “cannot turn upon the presence or absence of a physical intrusion into any given enclosure,” rejecting the premise that had led the Court to approve warrantless wiretapping four decades earlier. For anyone concerned about government snooping, that was surely a good result. But subsequent decisions showed the new test was an unreliable safeguard against police invasions of privacy.

“If Katz ushered in a revolution in Fourth Amendment doctrine, the Court was quick to cabin its impact,” Justice Samuel Alito noted in his Chatrie dissent. “Indeed, the Court spent much of the 20th century emphasizing the limits of Katz‘s reach.”

Contrary to what you might expect (perhaps unreasonably), the new standard had no effect on a sweeping exception to the Fourth Amendment that the Court had announced more than 40 years before Katz. “The special protection accorded by the Fourth Amendment to the people in their ‘persons, houses, papers and effects,’ is not extended to the open fields,” Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr. wrote for a unanimous Court in the 1924 case Hester v. United States, approving a warrantless search that had resulted in a South Carolina moonshiner’s arrest and conviction. “The distinction between the latter and the house is as old as the common law.”

Holmes was wrong about that. As Institute for Justice attorneys Robert Frommer and Anthony Sanders noted in a 2017 Supreme Court brief, Holmes misconstrued a discussion of burglary in William Blackstone’s Commentaries on the Laws of England, erroneously thinking it justified the supposedly longstanding distinction he perceived. But despite the shaky basis for the “open fields” doctrine, the Court upheld it under the Katz test in the 1984 case Oliver v. United States, which involved a marijuana farm discovered by Kentucky state police.

“In the case of open fields, the general rights of property protected by the common law of trespass have little or no relevance to the applicability of the Fourth Amendment,” Justice Lewis F. Powell Jr. wrote in the majority opinion. Although the marijuana growers “erected fences and ‘No Trespassing’ signs around the property,” the Court rejected “the suggestion that steps taken to protect privacy establish that expectations of privacy in an open field are legitimate.”

The implication was that “open fields” need not actually be open. Even when private property is fenced and marked with “No Trespassing” signs, the Court said, “no expectation of privacy legitimately attaches to open fields.” At the same time, it acknowledged that the Fourth Amendment does apply to “the ‘curtilage,’ the land immediately surrounding and associated with the home.”

Under the “open fields” doctrine, the Supreme Court ruled three years later in United States v. Dunn, federal drug agents likewise did not need a warrant to approach a barn located about 50 yards from a home on a West Texas ranch, even though they had to cross several fences on the way. Nor did they need a warrant to peer into the barn, where they ultimately found a laboratory producing the methamphetamine precursor phenylacetone, because at that point they were still located in “open fields.” In an opinion by Byron White, who had concurred in Katz, the majority concluded that “the barn and the area around it lay outside the curtilage of the house.”

Oliver and Dunn exemplified the Court’s eagerness to facilitate the war on drugs by whittling away at the Fourth Amendment. Many of those cases explicitly or implicitly involved the Katz test, which often proved no barrier to nosy drug warriors.

In the 1983 case United States v. Knotts, the Court approved the warrantless use of a surreptitiously placed radio transmitter to track a suspected drug trafficker’s car. “A person traveling in an automobile on public thoroughfares,” Justice William Rehnquist said in the majority opinion, “has no reasonable expectation of privacy in his movements from one place to another.”

Three years later in California v. Ciraolo, the Court approved warrantless surveillance by an airplane flying 1,000 feet above a backyard marijuana plot. Even though that area was “within the curtilage” of the home and shielded from ground-level observation by two fences, Chief Justice Warren Burger said in the majority opinion, any expectation that it would be safe from aerial observation was not reasonable. The Court extended that logic in the 1989 case Florida v. Riley, holding that sheriff’s deputies did not violate the Fourth Amendment when they observed a marijuana grower’s greenhouse from a helicopter 400 feet above his property.

Police also are free to search your trash without a warrant, the Court said in the 1988 case California v. Greenwood, because “society” is not “prepared to accept” any expectation of privacy in “garbage bags left at the curb” as reasonable. Suspected Laguna Beach drug dealer Billy Greenwood and his associates “exposed their garbage to the public sufficiently to defeat their claim to Fourth Amendment protection,” White explained in the majority opinion. “It is common knowledge that plastic garbage bags left on or at the side of a public street are readily accessible to animals, children, scavengers, snoops, and other members of the public.”

According to the Supreme Court, police likewise do not need a warrant, probable cause, or even reasonable suspicion to deploy drug-detecting dogs at an airport or during a routine traffic stop. People do not have a “legitimate” expectation of privacy in whatever contraband they may be carrying in their luggage, the Court explained in the 1983 case United States v. Place. And when a police dog sniffs a car that has been legally stopped, according to the Court’s 2005 decision in Illinois v. Caballes, “any intrusion on respondent’s privacy expectations does not rise to the level of a constitutionally cognizable infringement.”

These assurances ring hollow for two reasons. First, canine inspections trigger full-blown searches. Second, they frequently deliver false positives. The Court has said an “alert” by a properly trained dog is enough to provide probable cause for a search, notwithstanding substantial evidence that such alerts are often erroneous, imagined, invented, or triggered by the handler’s subconscious cues. In practice, these rulings mean that a cop with a dog can search cars at will, a situation that hardly seems consistent with reasonable expectations of privacy.

When police saw people bagging cocaine while peering through a gap in an apartment’s closed window blind, the Court said in the 1998 case Minnesota v. Carter, they did not violate a reasonable expectation of privacy because the suspects were not “overnight social guests.” And when police searched a car because they suspected the driver was a drug user, according to the Court’s 1999 ruling in Wyoming v. Houghton, they also were allowed to search a passenger’s purse, since “passengers, no less than drivers, possess a reduced expectation of privacy with regard to the property that they transport in cars.”

The Birth of the Third-Party Doctrine

The war on illegal liquor, which gave birth to the “open fields” doctrine, also figured in the case that inspired the third-party doctrine. After discovering an unlicensed whiskey distillery in 1973, sheriff’s deputies in Houston County, Georgia, connected the operation to Mitch Miller by going through his bank records, which they obtained with a grand jury subpoena rather than a warrant. That was fine, the Supreme Court said in the 1976 case United States v. Miller.

“All of the documents obtained, including financial statements and deposit slips, contain only information voluntarily conveyed to the banks and exposed to their employees in the ordinary course of business,” Powell noted in the majority opinion. “The depositor takes the risk, in revealing his affairs to another, that the information will be conveyed by that person to the Government.”

Miller therefore had no “legitimate expectation of privacy concerning the information kept in bank records,” Powell wrote. More generally, he said, “the Fourth Amendment does not prohibit the obtaining of information revealed to a third party and conveyed by him to Government authorities, even if the information is revealed on the assumption that it will be used only for a limited purpose and the confidence placed in the third party will not be betrayed.”

The Court reaffirmed that principle in the 1979 case Smith v. Maryland, which involved a robbery investigation in which police used a “pen register” to record the numbers dialed from the suspect’s home. “A person has no legitimate expectation of privacy in information he voluntarily turns over to third parties,” Justice Harry Blackmun wrote in the majority opinion.

That doctrine was troubling enough when records were kept on paper in filing cabinets. It is even more worrisome now that Americans routinely entrust vast amounts of sensitive electronic information to third parties.

The Supreme Court confronted that issue in a 2018 case involving cellphone location information collected by cell sites, which the FBI had obtained while investigating a series of robberies in Detroit. Timothy Carpenter, who was convicted based on that information, argued that the FBI’s acquisition of his cell-site data was a “search” under the Fourth Amendment. The Supreme Court agreed, notwithstanding the third-party doctrine.

“While the third-party doctrine applies to telephone numbers and bank records, it is not clear whether its logic extends to the qualitatively different category of cell-site records,” Chief Justice John Roberts wrote for the majority in Carpenter v. United States. “After all, when Smith was decided in 1979, few could have imagined a society in which a phone goes wherever its owner goes, conveying to the wireless carrier not just dialed digits, but a detailed and comprehensive record of the person’s movements.”

In addition to revealing more than the bank and telephone records at issue in Smith and Miller, Roberts argued, “cell phone location information is not truly ‘shared’ as one normally understands the term,” since it is automatically generated by devices that nearly everyone routinely carries. In light of those differences, he said, “we decline to extend Smith and Miller to cover these novel circumstances. Given the unique nature of cell phone location records, the fact that the information is held by a third party does not by itself overcome the user’s claim to Fourth Amendment protection.”

‘What’s Left of the Fourth Amendment?’

Gorsuch dissented in Carpenter, mainly to express his exasperation at the consequences of the Katz test and the third-party exception. According to Smith and Miller, “the Constitution does nothing to limit investigators from searching records you’ve entrusted to your bank, accountant, and maybe even your doctor,” he wrote. “What’s left of the Fourth Amendment?”

Nowadays, Gorsuch noted, “we use the Internet to do most everything. Smartphones make it easy to keep a calendar, correspond with friends, make calls, conduct banking, and even watch the game. Countless Internet companies maintain records about us and, increasingly, for us. Even our most private documents—those that, in other eras, we would have locked safely in a desk drawer or destroyed—now reside on third party servers.”

Under the third-party doctrine, “police can review all of this material, on the theory that no one reasonably expects any of it will be kept private,” Gorsuch wrote. “But no one believes that.”

The Supreme Court “has never offered a persuasive justification” for the third-party doctrine, Gorsuch said. “The fact that a third party has access to or possession of your papers and effects does not necessarily eliminate your interest in them. Ever hand a private document to a friend to be returned? Toss your keys to a valet at a restaurant? Ask your neighbor to look after your dog while you travel? You would not expect the friend to share the document with others; the valet to lend your car to his buddy; or the neighbor to put Fido up for adoption.”

As Gorsuch saw it, the problem began with the Katz test itself. “We still don’t even know what its ‘reasonable expectation of privacy’ test is,” he wrote. “Is it supposed to pose an empirical question (what privacy expectations do people actually have) or a normative one (what expectations should they have)?” Either way, he said, the courts generally are not qualified to supply the answers.

Because of its subjectivity, the Katz test “has yielded an often unpredictable—and sometimes unbelievable—jurisprudence,” Gorsuch added. According to the Supreme Court, “a police helicopter hovering 400 feet above a person’s property invades no reasonable expectation of privacy,” he noted. “Try that one out on your neighbors.”

Gorsuch also mocked the Court’s logic in upholding warrantless trash searches. “The habits of raccoons don’t prove much about the habits of the country,” he wrote. “I doubt, too, that most people spotting a neighbor rummaging through their garbage would think they lacked reasonable grounds to confront the rummager. Making the decision all the stranger, California state law expressly protected a homeowner’s property rights in discarded trash.”

Gorsuch proposed an alternative to the Katz test. “The Fourth Amendment protects ‘the right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures,'” he noted. “True to those words and their original understanding, the traditional approach asked if a house, paper or effect was yours under law. No more was needed to trigger the Fourth Amendment.”

When courts apply that property-rights test, Gorsuch suggested, “positive law may help provide detailed guidance on evolving technologies without resort to judicial intuition,” since state or federal law “often creates rights in both tangible and intangible things.” The states and the federal government “are actively legislating in the area of third party data storage and the rights users enjoy,” he noted. “State courts are busy expounding common law property principles in this area as well. If state legislators or state courts say that a digital record has the attributes that normally make something property, that may supply a sounder basis for judicial decisionmaking than judicial guesswork about societal expectations.”

Cellphone Location Data As ‘Personal Property’

Something similar happened in Chatrie. That case also involved cellphone location data obtained as part of a robbery investigation, although it was different in two notable ways: Google’s Location History information is more precise and comprehensive than the cell-site data at issue in Carpenter, and the company’s initial search involved analyzing the records of some 500 million customers, as opposed to specific accounts that had already been identified.

If anything, those differences magnified the privacy concerns raised by Chatrie, so it is not surprising that the Court thought the Fourth Amendment was relevant. But Kagan’s explanation for declining to apply the third-party doctrine, which reiterated Roberts’ rationale in Carpenter, still seemed dubious, especially when it came to the question of whether cellphone users “truly” share their location information.

The government argued that they do in the case of the Location History feature, since it is “an optional add-on.” Rebutting that argument, Kagan noted that Google repeatedly prompts users to activate that feature, often warning that their Android phones will not “work correctly” without it. Whatever you make of that dispute, it seems clear that people voluntarily share information with third parties when they send email, visit websites, use social media, or store photos, videos, and documents on remote servers. The question is why those choices should be viewed as constitutionally relevant.

This time, Gorsuch concurred, but only in the judgment. In addition to reiterating his critique of Katz and the third-party doctrine, he elaborated on how his property-rights approach can be applied to remotely stored data.

“Based on the evidence the parties have put before us, it appears the word ‘effects’ was understood at the time of the Fourth Amendment’s adoption to embrace most any kind of personal property,” Gorsuch wrote. He cited several pieces of evidence suggesting that a cellphone user’s Location History information qualifies as his property.

“As Google puts it, and no one seriously disputes, Location History serves as a ‘diary’ or map ‘of a person’s travels,” Gorsuch said. At the time of the investigation at issue in Chatrie, he noted, Google’s agreement with cellphone users “referred to Location History as ‘your’ (meaning, the user’s) ‘information.'” The agreement allowed each user to “review” and “edit” his location data or even “export or delete that data ‘from Google’s servers at will.'” Google promised to protect the information from “unauthorized access, alteration, disclosure, or destruction.”

In short, Gorsuch wrote, the Virginia robbery defendant who brought this case, Okello Chatrie, “had the rights to enjoy, manage, alter, dispose, and exclude others from what amounted to an electronic diary or map of his travels. And as someone who held that many ‘sticks in the bundle of rights…commonly characterized as property’—including the ‘most treasured’ and ‘essential’ right to exclude—he has a strong claim that the Location History data was his personal property.”

Gorsuch also noted the treatment of such information under Virginia law. “That State’s Computer Crimes Act expressly describes ‘computer data’ as a form of ‘[p]roperty,'” he wrote. “Altering or making an unauthorized copy of computer data can constitute the crime of ‘computer trespass’ (another property law concept). And the State provides a right to sue for anyone ‘whose property or person is injured’ by violations of the Act (again suggesting a right to exclude).”

Virginia is not unusual in these respects. Most states “have enacted or amended laws to treat digital records and data as personal property,” the Cato Institute’s brief in Chatrie noted. “Many of these laws make it illegal for private actors to access or convert another person’s digital data. By explicitly defining digital records as ‘property’ and by enacting digital privacy statutes that give users the right to obtain, control, and delete their personal information, states have recognized that users often own their digital records.”

At the time of the robbery investigation, Google stored Location History data on its own servers. But from a property-rights perspective, the fact that Chatrie entrusted his data to Google for certain purposes is not decisive.

“An individual need not have ‘complete ownership or exclusive control’ before he can assert a Fourth Amendment challenge against the search of real property,” Gorsuch noted. The Court has “long recognized” that tenants and family members have Fourth Amendment rights with respect to the places where they live, he said, and “I fail to see why the law should differ markedly when it comes to personal property.”

When you “[t]oss your keys to a valet at a restaurant” or “[a]sk your neighbor to look after your dog while you travel,” Gorsuch noted, “you may entrust your personal property to another and license him to do certain things with it, much as Mr. Chatrie did with his Location History data. But that hardly means that property is no longer yours.”

Nor does it matter, in Gorsuch’s view, that the Framers “might not have imagined an electronic diary or map of one’s travels,” since “the terms found in the Fourth Amendment carry their original public meaning and can bear more applications than its drafters might have expected or intended.” Just as the First Amendment “protects speech over the internet today no less than it did speech delivered in the town square in 1791,” he said, “it should hardly come as a surprise that the Fourth Amendment might protect as personal ‘effects’ electronic diaries of one’s travels as it always has more traditional ones.”

The Continuing Relevance of Property Rights

Katz did not make property rights irrelevant in Fourth Amendment cases. In the 2012 case United States v. Jones, for example, the Court held that police needed a warrant before attaching a GPS tracking device to a drug suspect’s car, emphasizing the physical trespass that entailed. Writing for the majority, Justice Antonin Scalia noted that Katz “did not repudiate” the understanding that the Fourth Amendment reflects a particular concern about “government trespass” on people and their property.

As Gorsuch concedes, there is some overlap between the Katz test and the approach he favors. Judges sometimes “may be able to discern and describe existing societal norms,” Gorsuch wrote in Carpenter. In the 2013 case Florida v. Jardines, for instance, Scalia noted that people generally are free to approach the front door of a home without advance permission, a tradition that reflects “the habits of the country.” But that general license, Scalia said in the majority opinion, does not mean police are free to deploy a drug-detecting dog at someone’s doorstep, which is indisputably within the specially protected “curtilage.”

The identification of “reasonable expectations” may be defensible when it relies on “positive law rather than intuition for guidance on social norms,” Gorsuch said. As an example, he cited Byrd v. United States, a 2018 case in which the Supreme Court held that a driver can have a reasonable expectation of privacy in a rental car even if he is not listed on the rental agreement. In reaching that conclusion, Gorsuch noted, the unanimous Court relied on “general property-based concept[s].”

In such cases, Gorsuch said, the Katz test “may simply wind up approximating” the results of a property-focused analysis. In Chatrie, the majority likewise alluded to property rights while asking about reasonable expectations of privacy. “Location History resembles other private materials—think of emails, documents, photographs, or calendars—that even if stored on Google’s servers, a user reasonably views as his own,” Kagan wrote. “Put another way,” Gorsuch  remarked, those things “are his effects.”

Harlan’s concurrence in Katz also implicitly relied on property rights. “The critical fact in this case,” he said, is that someone who “occupies” a telephone booth, “shuts the door behind him,” and “pays the toll that permits him to place a call” is “surely entitled to assume” that “his conversation is not being intercepted.” That situation, where someone expects privacy because he has paid to use an enclosed space, is analogous to a hotel room or a rented apartment, where occupants have legally recognized privacy rights even though they do not hold the deed to the property.

A “reasonable expectation” test grounded in property rights, as reflected in statutes, contracts, and the common law, would be essentially the same as the approach that Gorsuch proposes. It would go beyond the physical intrusions that the Supreme Court emphasized prior to Katz, since it would take into account evidence such as user agreements, state laws, and court decisions recognizing property rights in “intangible things,” even when they are stored on third-party servers. At the same time, that approach would constrain the “judicial guesswork” that Gorsuch believes has frequently led the Court astray.

Whether couched as a revised Katz test or a return to a “more traditional” understanding of the Fourth Amendment, as Gorsuch describes it, a property-focused analysis would not authorize a broad exception for information shared with third parties. Carpenter and Chatrie suggest that the justices are beginning to recognize the alarming implications of that doctrine.

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Trump Tries To Take Credit for a Walmart July 4 Grocery Sale


President Donald Trump and a Walmart store | CNP / AdMedia/Newscom/Weston Hancock/ZUMAPRESS/Newscom

As Americans contend with persistent inflation, it makes sense that President Donald Trump would be desperate for any good news on the subject. This week, he claimed credit for a national grocery chain’s sale on barbecue essentials.

“This summer, Walmart and Sam’s Club are helping customers and members save more with thousands of lower prices,” the retailers announced Monday. “From backyard barbecues and family vacations to pool days and neighborhood gatherings, the savings are designed to help customers and members make the most of the season while spending less on the products they need, want and love most.”

The savings included summer staples like ground beef, soda, potato chips, and corn on the cob.

Later that day, Trump said it was his idea.

“Great news! I have just been informed that one of the biggest, best, and smartest Retailers in America, Walmart, will be lowering prices, by a lot, at my Administration’s request to celebrate our great Country’s 250th birthday,” he wrote on Truth Social. “Walmart is stepping up in a big and bold way, and other Retailers should follow the lead of these absolute Patriots.”

What a difference a year makes. Last April, Trump imposed tariffs on nearly every other country, and Walmart was among the retailers that announced it could be forced to raise prices.

In that case, the president was not pleased.

“Walmart should STOP trying to blame Tariffs as the reason for raising prices throughout the chain,” Trump wrote in May 2025. “Walmart made BILLIONS OF DOLLARS last year, far more than expected. Between Walmart and China they should, as is said, ‘EAT THE TARIFFS,’ and not charge valued customers ANYTHING. I’ll be watching, and so will your customers!!!”

Ever since he first ran for president, tariffs have formed a big part of Trump’s economic policy, even though he consistently seems to misunderstand how they work. Tariffs are paid by companies, and by extension their customers, but Trump often calls them “a tax on another country.”

Then again, Trump’s tariff policy is of a piece with his comments about Walmart, showing how little he truly understands about economics.

Patrick Thomas and Sarah Nassauer of The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday that ahead of the July 4 holiday, the Department of Agriculture reached out to multiple national grocers to ask about beef prices. Walmart, in its call, “said it already had plans to reduce prices on many items for the summer, including beef,” wrote Thomas and Nassauer. “Walmart implemented those plans on shelves June 29, and later readied a press release touting the price cuts.”

“Summer sales are typical for chains like Walmart and these discounts had been in place for a week before Trump’s Truth Social post,” added Ramishah Maruf at CNN. “For example, the soda packs that are on sale were discounted last summer, as well.”

Last year, Trump also took credit for Walmart’s Thanksgiving meal basket being 25 percent less expensive than the year before, though it also included fewer and less expensive items.

Trump often seems to feel he has more control over markets than he actually does. “We’re a department store, a giant department store, the biggest department store in history,” he told Time last year. “And on behalf of the American people, I own the store, and I set prices, and I’ll say, if you want to shop here, this is what you have to pay.”

That is, of course, not how it works—for neither the economy nor the presidency. But Trump has certainly tried to govern that way.

Early in his second term, Trump signed an executive order calling for lower prices on prescription drugs—not just on those purchased by the federal government but seemingly for every drug on the market. Despite bragging ever since that he had brought prices down by mathematically impossible amounts, prescription costs largely remain the same.

In recent weeks, Trump threatened oil and gas companies with federal investigations unless they lowered prices at the pump. Of course, gas is more expensive primarily as a result of the war in Iran that Trump continues to wage.

Granted, a president can move markets in the short term. Numerous times during his second term, Trump has announced a policy shift that sent markets tumbling or commodity prices rising, only to creep back to normal when he reversed course. Some commentators have even noted a flurry of trading activity right before Trump’s announcements, suggesting someone could be trading on insider information.

But in the longer term, the economy is driven by individual actors making choices based on a number of external and internal factors. Trump, on the other hand, seems to think that all it takes to raise or lower prices is a call from the White House.

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New Homeland Security Task Forces Target Immigrants Over Sex Work


Federal agents outside a massage parlor | Illustration: Adani Samat/Lori Martin/Dreamstime

The Trump administration claims that its new Homeland Security task forces are here to protect Americans from an “invasion” by undocumented immigrants and thwart terrorist organizations, foreign cartels, and transnational gangs. So why are they targeting immigrant asylum seekers—who are in the country legally—over sex work?

To be fair, this seems to be a minor part of the task forces’ business. Much of the time, they’ve been waging a drug war against American citizens, as I reported last month.

Today, I want to focus on one case that didn’t make it into that piece. It’s the case that turned me on to the shams that are these new Homeland Security task forces, and it involves an old preoccupation of federal law enforcement: Asian immigrant–owned massage parlors.

“Four Chinese nationals indicted on charges of human trafficking, immigration violations, and money laundering,” the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Western District of Pennsylvania announced in January. At first, it seemed like a standard massage-parlor prostitution bust. But then I got to this language:

This prosecution is part of the Homeland Security Task Force (HSTF) initiative established by Executive Order 14159, Protecting the American People Against Invasion. The HSTF is a whole-of-government partnership dedicated to eliminating criminal cartels, foreign gangs, transnational criminal organizations, and human smuggling and trafficking rings operating in the United States and abroad. Through historic interagency collaboration, the HSTF directs the full might of United States law enforcement towards identifying, investigating, and prosecuting the full spectrum of crimes committed by these organizations, which have long fueled violence and instability within our borders. In performing this work, the HSTF places special emphasis on investigating and prosecuting those engaged in child trafficking or other crimes involving children. The HSTF further utilizes all available tools to prosecute and remove the most violent criminal aliens from the United States.

That’s some serious rhetoric. Was there, perhaps, more than just adult prostitution going on here? Or was this just the feds leveling up their anti-immigrant propaganda? If you guessed the latter, you may be a realist about how law enforcement operates.

In this case, the feds had indicted one dead person. So that brings our actual number of defendants down to three.

These three defendants—Shuhua Qiu, Chunlong Lin, and Lijuan Zhao—were all legal immigrants, according to U.S. Attorney Paul Sellers.

Qiu, a licensed massage therapist, had been in the country for 16 years and was granted political asylum from China. Zhao petitioned for asylum years ago but was still awaiting a decision.

Prosecutors allege that Qiu, Lin, and Zhao owned and managed two spas where sex acts sometimes took place alongside regular massages. That’s all.

The defendants are not alleged to have used force, or to have smuggled illegal immigrants into the country. They’re not alleged to be part of a transnational trafficking cartel. They just employed immigrant sex workers, prosecutors claim, and sometimes drove them from Queens across state lines to Pennsylvania or vice versa.

They were indicted in January—ending a two-year investigation, according to the Erie Times-News—and accused of running two spas “that served as fronts for unlawful businesses in which persons promoted and engaged in commercial sex.”

The trafficking charges stem from the fact that it’s illegal to bring someone across state lines for the purposes of prostitution. The immigration charge? Because it’s illegal to harbor noncitizen sex workers without reporting them to immigration authorities. And the money laundering charge stems from the fact that the defendants used banks to run their (allegedly illicit) massage business.

One of the defendants, Zhao, pleaded guilty in June and is now on track to be deported. The other two have pleaded not guilty, and their cases are ongoing.

As part of a plea deal, Zhao pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit a crime against the United States. Prosecutors asked the court to sentence her to 10 to 16 months in prison and, at sentencing, accused Zhao of human trafficking, despite the fact that the case involves no allegations that the women employed at these massage businesses were forced into work or sex.

Judge Susan Paradise Baxter told Zhao that the court was “disgusted” by her actions and sentenced her to time served (the nearly five months she had already been imprisoned since her arrest).

But Zhao won’t get out of prison yet. “Zhao is also being held in prison on an immigration detainer, and she will eventually be deported to China,” reports the Erie Times-News. “Baxter indicated that Zhao could remain jailed on the immigration detainer for an extended period of time—perhaps even longer than any sentence she would receive in the prostitution case.”

The feds were framing this as a blow against “the most violent criminal aliens.” In reality, they locked up a middle-aged immigrant woman for employing sex workers at her massage business without ratting them out to immigration authorities.


In the News

ICE’s internal investigations unit is now investigating Americans who criticize ICE. The agency’s Office of Professional Responsibility is “supposed to act as an internal watchdog,” Wired points out. “It’s responsible for inspecting detention facilities, investigating allegations of employee and contractor misconduct, and processing security checks for new applicants. On its site, it says it also protects against ‘external threats’ by managing badge access to buildings and maintaining the agency’s network security. But lately, court documents indicate, it appears to be pursuing more civilians…for what they say online.” Read the whole thing here.


On Substack

“‘Social media addiction’ is way more complicated than you think,” write Sally Satel and Stephen Morse at Persuasion. Satel is a lecturer in psychiatry at Yale and directs a methadone clinic, in addition to being an American Enterprise Institute senior fellow. Morse teaches law and psychiatry at the University of Pennsylvania. Both are critical of the way “social media addiction” cases are playing out in court, suggesting that “the courtroom is a domain where the claim of being ‘addicted’ should be held to a different, more stringent standard” than in the clinician’s office.

This is not to deny that habitual or addictive behavior has a biological basis. All behavior has a biological basis. The neurotransmitter dopamine appears to play a role, but its importance has been wildly exaggerated by professionals, including a Stanford psychiatrist who served as an expert witness in Kaley’s case and has called smartphones “the modern-day hypodermic needle, delivering digital dopamine 24-7 for a wired generation.” The so-called “dopamine theory of addiction” has been harshly criticized as too simplistic.

Most relevant to legal action, however, is that we cannot distinguish between an urge to scroll that wasn’t resisted and one that could not be resisted. Vexing questions abound. Is there a clear way to disentangle the role played by social media “addiction” from the influence of preexisting psychological problems, especially since such problems are ubiquitous among teens? Is it possible that teens’ distress caused them to turn to intensive social media use in the first place, rather than the other way around?

We cannot know. Nothing—no brain scan, blood test, or psychological measure—can validate anyone’s capacity to control an urge, or identify the specific cause of psychological harms.

Making such determinations is not essential for treatment, where the goal is to help people no matter the cause of their distress. But they are vital for adjudicating liability for defendants accused of addicting people, because this could be the basis of lawsuits that can cost companies millions of dollars and extensively expand civil liability.

More here.

This is especially important considering the absurd sums that states are seeking in these trials.

According to a Meta court filing made Monday, four states want a $1.4 trillion penalty to be lobbied against the company. “The figure is close to Meta’s market capitalization of roughly $1.5 trillion,” notes Quartz. Meta replied in the court filing that “a sanction of that size has no analog in the history of consumer protection enforcement.”


Read This Thread

Perhaps "adult" use cases for LLMs are a corollary. Despite the initial hype, there's been remarkably little success in attracting consumers to AI porn — digital twins, AI creators— than people imaginedChat is a different story. Fanfic, roleplay and virtual companions are far more successful.

Mike Stabile (@mikestabile.bsky.social) 2026-07-01T00:10:52.185Z

Matthew Sheffield’s whole post is worth a read, too. For now, I’m just going to pull out this amazing tidbit about an AI goblin mode debacle that I somehow missed earlier this year:

The most humorous instance came in April, when ChatGPT users began noticing that the 5.1 model had a weird habit of randomly inserting references to goblins and other mythical creatures into discussions that had nothing to do with fantasy fiction. The company didn’t say anything at first until someone on the internet noticed that the instructions for its Codex agent included the following directive: “Never talk about goblins, gremlins, raccoons, trolls, ogres, pigeons, or other animals or creatures unless it is absolutely and unambiguously relevant to the user’s query.”

After the anti-goblin instruction became a meme (oh the irony), the company fessed up to the situation in a blog post that disclosed that the fantasy creature obsessions were the product of OpenAI’s introduction of a “Nerdy” personality as one of several that users could choose from. But since LLMs do not have actual intentionality, when training users were rating ChatGPT’s Nerdy outputs, their apparent amusement with silly goblin references in that mode leaked out of containment.


More Sex & Tech News

The “perfect dumb phone” is…an iPhone? Wired‘s Jeremy White discovered “a way to set up an iPhone as the perfect dumb phone for children—one with access to only the apps you deem appropriate, no internet browser, but with all-important tracking and navigation abilities.”

Deepfakes legislation threatens free speech: Although the NO FAKES Act “is aimed at deepfakes, it sweeps in a great deal of lawful speech,” the Cato Institute’s David Inserra points out. “The bill erects a sweeping licensing regime for AI-generated content that will stop malicious or unwanted deepfakes at the cost of preventing Americans from creating, sharing, or accessing a wide range of lawful speech.”

Texas app law can take effect: “The Supreme Court on Monday declined to pause enforcement of a Texas law that restricts which apps children can download from online stores,” reports The Washington Post. “The high court’s brief, unsigned order allows the law to be enforced while a challenge to it plays out in lower court.” (Age-verification laws were sold as a way to protect minors from sexual content, notes the Free Speech Coalition’s Mike Stabile on Bluesky. “And now it’s being used against you. Censorship and surveillance are vampires. Once you invite them in, they start looking at your neck.”)

Anti-porn group submits AI hallucinations to court: The National Center on Sexual Exploitation—”the far right, anti-sex, anti-speech, and anti-internet group” formerly known as Morality in Media, as Mike Masnick aptly characterizes it—was caught fabricating citations in legal filings, Masnick reports. “And then, once they were on notice of falsified filings, they… didn’t fix them. Indeed, NCOSE’s lawyers continued to rely on a hallucinated citation.” 

“This era of the internet is becoming stale,” suggests Spencer Kornhaber at The Atlantic, “and the trajectory it set culture upon is reaching a terminal point.”

Another bogus massage parlor “sex trafficking” ring stopped: Alaskan authorities who raided Asian massage businesses in April claimed to have dismantled a sex trafficking operation. “But that’s not exactly what the charging documents say,” notes Tara Burns:

Instead, the alleged sex trafficking included arranging duos, giving rides from the airport, taking out the trash, paying to install a business sign, working the front desk, buying groceries, and managing businesses where consensual adult sex work allegedly occurred. Three sex workers are being held with either no bail or $100,000 bail.

More evidence that Australia’s teen social media ban is a bust: Age-assurance software testers “found that platforms did not ask for age proof on any of the 50 accounts it opened after the law came into force,” reports Reuters. “The previously unreported finding reveals a largely overlooked flaw: while the process has so far focused on the ⁠accuracy of photo-based age-assurance software, the initial vetting stage—which guesses a person’s age range based on their general online activity—does not appear to be picking up young users for further checks.”

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Can the Supreme Court Still Restrain Executive Power?

Today’s guest is Clark Neily, a constitutional litigator, civil liberties advocate, and senior vice president for legal studies at the Cato Institute. He previously served as co-counsel in the landmark Supreme Court case District of Columbia v. Heller, one of the most consequential gun rights decisions in modern history.

Neily speaks with Nick Gillespie about the Supreme Court’s latest term, the constitutional limits on executive power, and whether Congress has ceded too much authority to the presidency and the administrative state. Neily explains why he believes the Court has become an essential check on government overreach and discusses recent rulings involving birthright citizenship and gun rights.

They also discuss the rise of plea bargaining, why federal prosecutors wield extraordinary leverage over criminal defendants, and whether America’s constitutional system is strong enough to withstand growing political polarization and executive power.

 

0:00—The Supreme Court’s birthright citizenship ruling

4:01—Humphrey’s Executor and agency independence

9:02—President Donald Trump and executive power

16:05—Gun rights and expanding gun ownership

25:33—Is the Supreme Court defending liberty?

29:38—How the justice system forces guilty pleas

36:24—Neily’s least favorite Supreme Court Justice

38:51—The worst presidents in American history

44:15—Neily’s origin story

49:35—Is Neily optimistic about America’s future?

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“AI is the Democratic Party’s Next Villain”

Another very interesting item from my Hoover colleague Andy Hall (Free Systems); a brief excerpt, though you should read the whole thing:

Something is shifting in the Democratic party. A string of primary upsets has fed a growing narrative that the party’s base now rewards a more aggressive brand of economic populism, one aimed squarely at billionaires, corporate power, and the political influence that money buys. And a number of sharp observers, including Jasmine Sun [piece here] and Archie Hall [piece here], have been arguing that this energy may come for AI next, a prediction that draws support from David Shor’s polling showing voters souring on the technology and on the companies building it as part of a broader concern towards what they see as a rigged economy and a hopeless cost-of-living crisis.

But almost all of the evidence behind this narrative describes the mood of the American electorate, and moods are only half of the story. Politicians do not respond mechanically to shifts in public sentiment—they answer to donors, activists, and primary challengers, not just median voters … and sometimes they stake out new positions well before the public asks for them, or refuse to move long after it has. If we want to know whether AI populism is becoming an organizing position of the Democratic party, rather than a diffuse sentiment floating around in polls, we need to measure the politicians directly. We need to watch what candidates actually say when they are trying to raise money, to garner attention, and to win elections.

Fundraising emails turn out to be a remarkably good place to look. Campaigns test these messages relentlessly against open rates and donations, so the language that survives is the language that operatives have learned actually moves their base—a compressed, high-frequency, almost real-time record of what politicians believe their supporters want to hear. Drawing on Derek Willis’s archive of political fundraising emails, we analyzed roughly 280,000 candidate emails sent since 2017 to trace how anti-billionaire populism became a major component of Democratic fundraising rhetoric, and how, more quietly but unmistakably, AI is starting to follow the same path….

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The Supreme Court’s ‘Reasonable Expectation of Privacy’ Test Defies Expectations


An illustration of the Supreme Court building | Midjourney

When he was arrested in 1965, Charles Katz “was probably the preeminent college basketball handicapper in America.” Or so says Harvey Schneider, who presumably should know, since he later represented Katz at the Supreme Court in a landmark Fourth Amendment case.

The Court’s 1967 decision in Katz v. United States, which held that the Constitution’s prohibition of “unreasonable searches and seizures” applies when people have a “reasonable expectation of privacy,” continues to shape Fourth Amendment rulings six decades later. That was clear on June 29, when the Court decided Chatrie v. United States, holding that a government-ordered analysis of cellphone location data qualifies as a “search” under the Fourth Amendment.

“An individual has a reasonable expectation of privacy in records about his cell phone’s location, and police intrude on that constitutionally protected interest when they demand the information,” Justice Elena Kagan wrote in an opinion joined by four of her colleagues. Justice Neil Gorsuch agreed with the result but not the rationale. The Katz test, he complained, “has no basis in the Constitution’s text or history.” He added that it has proven unworkable in practice because it has never been clear how courts should determine whether an expectation of privacy is “reasonable.”

Gorsuch is surely right that the Katz test has produced inconsistent and puzzling results. In cases addressing intrusions such as trash searches, demands for bank and telephone records, surveillance by low-flying aircraft, and police trespassing on private property, the Supreme Court has perceived no expectations of privacy it was prepared to recognize as reasonable. Applying the same test, it has repeatedly ruled that the Fourth Amendment does not apply to information that people voluntarily share with third parties. Yet the Court has repeatedly rebelled at the disturbing implications of that principle without explicitly renouncing it.

That is what happened in Chatrie, which involved a Virginia bank robbery investigation. Police used a “geofence” warrant to identify the perpetrator by requiring Google to search customer data collected by its Location History feature, which tracks the whereabouts of cellphone users. For reasons that are not entirely clear, the Court declined to apply the third-party doctrine, instead reverting to the original, unmodified Katz test.

A better approach, Gorsuch argued, would be to treat Location History records as “effects” covered by the Fourth Amendment—as a form of personal property, in other words. While it is not clear exactly how that property-rights approach would work in other contexts, it does seem less malleable than the Katz test, which gives courts wide discretion in discerning expectations and deciding whether they are reasonable. Gorsuch aptly likened the Court’s understanding of that test to its definition of obscenity in the 1960s: “We know a ‘reasonable expectation of privacy’ (and an exception to the third party doctrine) when we see it.”

The Roots of the ‘Reasonable Expectation’ Test

To understand why the object of Gorsuch’s ire seemed like a good idea at the time, it helps to review the facts of Katz’s case. The bookie, who had an apartment on Sunset Boulevard in Los Angeles that the Associated Press described as “expensive,” would often conduct his business from one of three telephone booths near his building, which proved to be his downfall.

After FBI agents “got wind of Katz’s activities and set out to arrest him,” Schneider says, they devised “a rather elaborate plan to do so.” First, “the agents obtained the telephone
company’s consent to put one of the telephone booths out of order.” Then they attached microphones to the roofs of the other two booths. The microphones, which were wired to a recorder on top of one booth, captured Katz’s voice as he made calls to Boston and Miami, relaying bets on basketball games, including contests pitting Duquesne University against St. Bonaventure College and Temple against Lafayette.

Katz’s phone calls violated 18 USC 1084, which made it a federal crime for someone “engaged in the business of betting or wagering” to transmit wagers on sporting events or information facilitating such bets “in interstate or foreign commerce” via a “wire communication facility.” A federal judge in Los Angeles convicted Katz of eight counts and imposed a $300 fine—about $3,200 today.

On appeal, Katz argued that the evidence collected by the FBI’s recorder should have been suppressed because the Fourth Amendment requires a warrant for such eavesdropping. He relied on Silverman v. United States, a 1961 Supreme Court case that also involved a gambling investigation. To verify their suspicions that a row house was “the headquarters of a gambling operation,” District of Columbia police officers drove a “spike mike” into the wall of an adjoining house with the owner’s permission. The microphone made contact with a heating duct in the suspects’ house, enabling the cops to overhear their conversations.

“The eavesdropping was accomplished by means of an unauthorized physical penetration into the premises occupied by the petitioners,” Justice Potter Stewart wrote in the majority opinion. “Eavesdropping accomplished by means of such a physical intrusion is beyond the pale of even those decisions in which a closely divided Court has held that eavesdropping accomplished by other electronic means did not amount to an invasion of Fourth Amendment rights.”

One of the precedents Stewart had in mind was Olmstead v. United States, a 1928 case in which the Court concluded that wiretapping did not implicate the Fourth Amendment. Another relevant decision was the Court’s 1942 ruling in Goldman v. United States, which held that federal agents did not violate the Fourth Amendment when they eavesdropped on the conversations of criminal suspects by placing a “detectaphone” against the wall of an adjoining room. Stewart saw an important difference between remote wiretapping or listening through a wall and poking a microphone into a suspect’s property.

Unfortunately for Katz, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit thought the FBI’s eavesdropping on him more closely resembled the facts of Goldman. “There was no physical penetration inside of the booths,” the 9th Circuit noted when it rejected Katz’s appeal in November 1966.

A year later in Katz v. United States, the Supreme Court deemed that detail irrelevant. Writing for the majority, Stewart said “the underpinnings of Olmstead and Goldman have been so eroded by our subsequent decisions that the ‘trespass’ doctrine there enunciated can no longer be regarded as controlling.” The main point, Stewart said, was that the FBI had “violated the privacy upon which [Katz] justifiably relied while using the telephone booth.” In other words, Justice John Marshall Harlan II said in a concurring opinion, the Fourth Amendment applies when someone has an “expectation of privacy” that “society is prepared to recognize as ‘reasonable.'”

‘The Limits of Katz‘s Reach’

When it sided with Katz, the Supreme Court said the Fourth Amendment’s scope “cannot turn upon the presence or absence of a physical intrusion into any given enclosure,” rejecting the premise that had led the Court to approve warrantless wiretapping four decades earlier. For anyone concerned about government snooping, that was surely a good result. But subsequent decisions showed the new test was an unreliable safeguard against police invasions of privacy.

“If Katz ushered in a revolution in Fourth Amendment doctrine, the Court was quick to cabin its impact,” Justice Samuel Alito noted in his Chatrie dissent. “Indeed, the Court spent much of the 20th century emphasizing the limits of Katz‘s reach.”

Contrary to what you might expect (perhaps unreasonably), the new standard had no effect on a sweeping exception to the Fourth Amendment that the Court had announced more than 40 years before Katz. “The special protection accorded by the Fourth Amendment to the people in their ‘persons, houses, papers and effects,’ is not extended to the open fields,” Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr. wrote for a unanimous Court in the 1924 case Hester v. United States, approving a warrantless search that had resulted in a South Carolina moonshiner’s arrest and conviction. “The distinction between the latter and the house is as old as the common law.”

Holmes was wrong about that. As Institute for Justice attorneys Robert Frommer and Anthony Sanders noted in a 2017 Supreme Court brief, Holmes misconstrued a discussion of burglary in William Blackstone’s Commentaries on the Laws of England, erroneously thinking it justified the supposedly longstanding distinction he perceived. But despite the shaky basis for the “open fields” doctrine, the Court upheld it under the Katz test in the 1984 case Oliver v. United States, which involved a marijuana farm discovered by Kentucky state police.

“In the case of open fields, the general rights of property protected by the common law of trespass have little or no relevance to the applicability of the Fourth Amendment,” Justice Lewis F. Powell Jr. wrote in the majority opinion. Although the marijuana growers “erected fences and ‘No Trespassing’ signs around the property,” the Court rejected “the suggestion that steps taken to protect privacy establish that expectations of privacy in an open field are legitimate.”

The implication was that “open fields” need not actually be open. Even when private property is fenced and marked with “No Trespassing” signs, the Court said, “no expectation of privacy legitimately attaches to open fields.” At the same time, it acknowledged that the Fourth Amendment does apply to “the ‘curtilage,’ the land immediately surrounding and associated with the home.”

Under the “open fields” doctrine, the Supreme Court ruled three years later in United States v. Dunn, federal drug agents likewise did not need a warrant to approach a barn located about 50 yards from a home on a West Texas ranch, even though they had to cross several fences on the way. Nor did they need a warrant to peer into the barn, where they ultimately found a laboratory producing the methamphetamine precursor phenylacetone, because at that point they were still located in “open fields.” In an opinion by Byron White, who had concurred in Katz, the majority concluded that “the barn and the area around it lay outside the curtilage of the house.”

Oliver and Dunn exemplified the Court’s eagerness to facilitate the war on drugs by whittling away at the Fourth Amendment. Many of those cases explicitly or implicitly involved the Katz test, which often proved no barrier to nosy drug warriors.

In the 1983 case United States v. Knotts, the Court approved the warrantless use of a surreptitiously placed radio transmitter to track a suspected drug trafficker’s car. “A person traveling in an automobile on public thoroughfares,” Justice William Rehnquist said in the majority opinion, “has no reasonable expectation of privacy in his movements from one place to another.”

Three years later in California v. Ciraolo, the Court approved warrantless surveillance by an airplane flying 1,000 feet above a backyard marijuana plot. Even though that area was “within the curtilage” of the home and shielded from ground-level observation by two fences, Chief Justice Warren Burger said in the majority opinion, any expectation that it would be safe from aerial observation was not reasonable. The Court extended that logic in the 1989 case Florida v. Riley, holding that sheriff’s deputies did not violate the Fourth Amendment when they observed a marijuana grower’s greenhouse from a helicopter 400 feet above his property.

Police also are free to search your trash without a warrant, the Court said in the 1988 case California v. Greenwood, because “society” is not “prepared to accept” any expectation of privacy in “garbage bags left at the curb” as reasonable. Suspected Laguna Beach drug dealer Billy Greenwood and his associates “exposed their garbage to the public sufficiently to defeat their claim to Fourth Amendment protection,” White explained in the majority opinion. “It is common knowledge that plastic garbage bags left on or at the side of a public street are readily accessible to animals, children, scavengers, snoops, and other members of the public.”

According to the Supreme Court, police likewise do not need a warrant, probable cause, or even reasonable suspicion to deploy drug-detecting dogs at an airport or during a routine traffic stop. People do not have a “legitimate” expectation of privacy in whatever contraband they may be carrying in their luggage, the Court explained in the 1983 case United States v. Place. And when a police dog sniffs a car that has been legally stopped, according to the Court’s 2005 decision in Illinois v. Caballes, “any intrusion on respondent’s privacy expectations does not rise to the level of a constitutionally cognizable infringement.”

These assurances ring hollow for two reasons. First, canine inspections trigger full-blown searches. Second, they frequently deliver false positives. The Court has said an “alert” by a properly trained dog is enough to provide probable cause for a search, notwithstanding substantial evidence that such alerts are often erroneous, imagined, invented, or triggered by the handler’s subconscious cues. In practice, these rulings mean that a cop with a dog can search cars at will, a situation that hardly seems consistent with reasonable expectations of privacy.

When police saw people bagging cocaine while peering through a gap in an apartment’s closed window blind, the Court said in the 1998 case Minnesota v. Carter, they did not violate a reasonable expectation of privacy because the suspects were not “overnight social guests.” And when police searched a car because they suspected the driver was a drug user, according to the Court’s 1999 ruling in Wyoming v. Houghton, they also were allowed to search a passenger’s purse, since “passengers, no less than drivers, possess a reduced expectation of privacy with regard to the property that they transport in cars.”

The Birth of the Third-Party Doctrine

The war on illegal liquor, which gave birth to the “open fields” doctrine, also figured in the case that inspired the third-party doctrine. After discovering an unlicensed whiskey distillery in 1973, sheriff’s deputies in Houston County, Georgia, connected the operation to Mitch Miller by going through his bank records, which they obtained with a grand jury subpoena rather than a warrant. That was fine, the Supreme Court said in the 1976 case United States v. Miller.

“All of the documents obtained, including financial statements and deposit slips, contain only information voluntarily conveyed to the banks and exposed to their employees in the ordinary course of business,” Powell noted in the majority opinion. “The depositor takes the risk, in revealing his affairs to another, that the information will be conveyed by that person to the Government.”

Miller therefore had no “legitimate expectation of privacy concerning the information kept in bank records,” Powell wrote. More generally, he said, “the Fourth Amendment does not prohibit the obtaining of information revealed to a third party and conveyed by him to Government authorities, even if the information is revealed on the assumption that it will be used only for a limited purpose and the confidence placed in the third party will not be betrayed.”

The Court reaffirmed that principle in the 1979 case Smith v. Maryland, which involved a robbery investigation in which police used a “pen register” to record the numbers dialed from the suspect’s home. “A person has no legitimate expectation of privacy in information he voluntarily turns over to third parties,” Justice Harry Blackmun wrote in the majority opinion.

That doctrine was troubling enough when records were kept on paper in filing cabinets. It is even more worrisome now that Americans routinely entrust vast amounts of sensitive electronic information to third parties.

The Supreme Court confronted that issue in a 2018 case involving cellphone location information collected by cell sites, which the FBI had obtained while investigating a series of robberies in Detroit. Timothy Carpenter, who was convicted based on that information, argued that the FBI’s acquisition of his cell-site data was a “search” under the Fourth Amendment. The Supreme Court agreed, notwithstanding the third-party doctrine.

“While the third-party doctrine applies to telephone numbers and bank records, it is not clear whether its logic extends to the qualitatively different category of cell-site records,” Chief Justice John Roberts wrote for the majority in Carpenter v. United States. “After all, when Smith was decided in 1979, few could have imagined a society in which a phone goes wherever its owner goes, conveying to the wireless carrier not just dialed digits, but a detailed and comprehensive record of the person’s movements.”

In addition to revealing more than the bank and telephone records at issue in Smith and Miller, Roberts argued, “cell phone location information is not truly ‘shared’ as one normally understands the term,” since it is automatically generated by devices that nearly everyone routinely carries. In light of those differences, he said, “we decline to extend Smith and Miller to cover these novel circumstances. Given the unique nature of cell phone location records, the fact that the information is held by a third party does not by itself overcome the user’s claim to Fourth Amendment protection.”

‘What’s Left of the Fourth Amendment?’

Gorsuch dissented in Carpenter, mainly to express his exasperation at the consequences of the Katz test and the third-party exception. According to Smith and Miller, “the Constitution does nothing to limit investigators from searching records you’ve entrusted to your bank, accountant, and maybe even your doctor,” he wrote. “What’s left of the Fourth Amendment?”

Nowadays, Gorsuch noted, “we use the Internet to do most everything. Smartphones make it easy to keep a calendar, correspond with friends, make calls, conduct banking, and even watch the game. Countless Internet companies maintain records about us and, increasingly, for us. Even our most private documents—those that, in other eras, we would have locked safely in a desk drawer or destroyed—now reside on third party servers.”

Under the third-party doctrine, “police can review all of this material, on the theory that no one reasonably expects any of it will be kept private,” Gorsuch wrote. “But no one believes that.”

The Supreme Court “has never offered a persuasive justification” for the third-party doctrine, Gorsuch said. “The fact that a third party has access to or possession of your papers and effects does not necessarily eliminate your interest in them. Ever hand a private document to a friend to be returned? Toss your keys to a valet at a restaurant? Ask your neighbor to look after your dog while you travel? You would not expect the friend to share the document with others; the valet to lend your car to his buddy; or the neighbor to put Fido up for adoption.”

As Gorsuch saw it, the problem began with the Katz test itself. “We still don’t even know what its ‘reasonable expectation of privacy’ test is,” he wrote. “Is it supposed to pose an empirical question (what privacy expectations do people actually have) or a normative one (what expectations should they have)?” Either way, he said, the courts generally are not qualified to supply the answers.

Because of its subjectivity, the Katz test “has yielded an often unpredictable—and sometimes unbelievable—jurisprudence,” Gorsuch added. According to the Supreme Court, “a police helicopter hovering 400 feet above a person’s property invades no reasonable expectation of privacy,” he noted. “Try that one out on your neighbors.”

Gorsuch also mocked the Court’s logic in upholding warrantless trash searches. “The habits of raccoons don’t prove much about the habits of the country,” he wrote. “I doubt, too, that most people spotting a neighbor rummaging through their garbage would think they lacked reasonable grounds to confront the rummager. Making the decision all the stranger, California state law expressly protected a homeowner’s property rights in discarded trash.”

Gorsuch proposed an alternative to the Katz test. “The Fourth Amendment protects ‘the right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures,'” he noted. “True to those words and their original understanding, the traditional approach asked if a house, paper or effect was yours under law. No more was needed to trigger the Fourth Amendment.”

When courts apply that property-rights test, Gorsuch suggested, “positive law may help provide detailed guidance on evolving technologies without resort to judicial intuition,” since state or federal law “often creates rights in both tangible and intangible things.” The states and the federal government “are actively legislating in the area of third party data storage and the rights users enjoy,” he noted. “State courts are busy expounding common law property principles in this area as well. If state legislators or state courts say that a digital record has the attributes that normally make something property, that may supply a sounder basis for judicial decisionmaking than judicial guesswork about societal expectations.”

Cellphone Location Data As ‘Personal Property’

Something similar happened in Chatrie. That case also involved cellphone location data obtained as part of a robbery investigation, although it was different in two notable ways: Google’s Location History information is more precise and comprehensive than the cell-site data at issue in Carpenter, and the company’s initial search involved analyzing the records of some 500 million customers, as opposed to specific accounts that had already been identified.

If anything, those differences magnified the privacy concerns raised by Chatrie, so it is not surprising that the Court thought the Fourth Amendment was relevant. But Kagan’s explanation for declining to apply the third-party doctrine, which reiterated Roberts’ rationale in Carpenter, still seemed dubious, especially when it came to the question of whether cellphone users “truly” share their location information.

The government argued that they do in the case of the Location History feature, since it is “an optional add-on.” Rebutting that argument, Kagan noted that Google repeatedly prompts users to activate that feature, often warning that their Android phones will not “work correctly” without it. Whatever you make of that dispute, it seems clear that people voluntarily share information with third parties when they send email, visit websites, use social media, or store photos, videos, and documents on remote servers. The question is why those choices should be viewed as constitutionally relevant.

This time, Gorsuch concurred, but only in the judgment. In addition to reiterating his critique of Katz and the third-party doctrine, he elaborated on how his property-rights approach can be applied to remotely stored data.

“Based on the evidence the parties have put before us, it appears the word ‘effects’ was understood at the time of the Fourth Amendment’s adoption to embrace most any kind of personal property,” Gorsuch wrote. He cited several pieces of evidence suggesting that a cellphone user’s Location History information qualifies as his property.

“As Google puts it, and no one seriously disputes, Location History serves as a ‘diary’ or map ‘of a person’s travels,” Gorsuch said. At the time of the investigation at issue in Chatrie, he noted, Google’s agreement with cellphone users “referred to Location History as ‘your’ (meaning, the user’s) ‘information.'” The agreement allowed each user to “review” and “edit” his location data or even “export or delete that data ‘from Google’s servers at will.'” Google promised to protect the information from “unauthorized access, alteration, disclosure, or destruction.”

In short, Gorsuch wrote, the Virginia robbery defendant who brought this case, Okello Chatrie, “had the rights to enjoy, manage, alter, dispose, and exclude others from what amounted to an electronic diary or map of his travels. And as someone who held that many ‘sticks in the bundle of rights…commonly characterized as property’—including the ‘most treasured’ and ‘essential’ right to exclude—he has a strong claim that the Location History data was his personal property.”

Gorsuch also noted the treatment of such information under Virginia law. “That State’s Computer Crimes Act expressly describes ‘computer data’ as a form of ‘[p]roperty,'” he wrote. “Altering or making an unauthorized copy of computer data can constitute the crime of ‘computer trespass’ (another property law concept). And the State provides a right to sue for anyone ‘whose property or person is injured’ by violations of the Act (again suggesting a right to exclude).”

Virginia is not unusual in these respects. Most states “have enacted or amended laws to treat digital records and data as personal property,” the Cato Institute’s brief in Chatrie noted. “Many of these laws make it illegal for private actors to access or convert another person’s digital data. By explicitly defining digital records as ‘property’ and by enacting digital privacy statutes that give users the right to obtain, control, and delete their personal information, states have recognized that users often own their digital records.”

At the time of the robbery investigation, Google stored Location History data on its own servers. But from a property-rights perspective, the fact that Chatrie entrusted his data to Google for certain purposes is not decisive.

“An individual need not have ‘complete ownership or exclusive control’ before he can assert a Fourth Amendment challenge against the search of real property,” Gorsuch noted. The Court has “long recognized” that tenants and family members have Fourth Amendment rights with respect to the places where they live, he said, and “I fail to see why the law should differ markedly when it comes to personal property.”

When you “[t]oss your keys to a valet at a restaurant” or “[a]sk your neighbor to look after your dog while you travel,” Gorsuch noted, “you may entrust your personal property to another and license him to do certain things with it, much as Mr. Chatrie did with his Location History data. But that hardly means that property is no longer yours.”

Nor does it matter, in Gorsuch’s view, that the Framers “might not have imagined an electronic diary or map of one’s travels,” since “the terms found in the Fourth Amendment carry their original public meaning and can bear more applications than its drafters might have expected or intended.” Just as the First Amendment “protects speech over the internet today no less than it did speech delivered in the town square in 1791,” he said, “it should hardly come as a surprise that the Fourth Amendment might protect as personal ‘effects’ electronic diaries of one’s travels as it always has more traditional ones.”

The Continuing Relevance of Property Rights

Katz did not make property rights irrelevant in Fourth Amendment cases. In the 2012 case United States v. Jones, for example, the Court held that police needed a warrant before attaching a GPS tracking device to a drug suspect’s car, emphasizing the physical trespass that entailed. Writing for the majority, Justice Antonin Scalia noted that Katz “did not repudiate” the understanding that the Fourth Amendment reflects a particular concern about “government trespass” on people and their property.

As Gorsuch concedes, there is some overlap between the Katz test and the approach he favors. Judges sometimes “may be able to discern and describe existing societal norms,” Gorsuch wrote in Carpenter. In the 2013 case Florida v. Jardines, for instance, Scalia noted that people generally are free to approach the front door of a home without advance permission, a tradition that reflects “the habits of the country.” But that general license, Scalia said in the majority opinion, does not mean police are free to deploy a drug-detecting dog at someone’s doorstep, which is indisputably within the specially protected “curtilage.”

The identification of “reasonable expectations” may be defensible when it relies on “positive law rather than intuition for guidance on social norms,” Gorsuch said. As an example, he cited Byrd v. United States, a 2018 case in which the Supreme Court held that a driver can have a reasonable expectation of privacy in a rental car even if he is not listed on the rental agreement. In reaching that conclusion, Gorsuch noted, the unanimous Court relied on “general property-based concept[s].”

In such cases, Gorsuch said, the Katz test “may simply wind up approximating” the results of a property-focused analysis. In Chatrie, the majority likewise alluded to property rights while asking about reasonable expectations of privacy. “Location History resembles other private materials—think of emails, documents, photographs, or calendars—that even if stored on Google’s servers, a user reasonably views as his own,” Kagan wrote. “Put another way,” Gorsuch  remarked, those things “are his effects.”

Harlan’s concurrence in Katz also implicitly relied on property rights. “The critical fact in this case,” he said, is that someone who “occupies” a telephone booth, “shuts the door behind him,” and “pays the toll that permits him to place a call” is “surely entitled to assume” that “his conversation is not being intercepted.” That situation, where someone expects privacy because he has paid to use an enclosed space, is analogous to a hotel room or a rented apartment, where occupants have legally recognized privacy rights even though they do not hold the deed to the property.

A “reasonable expectation” test grounded in property rights, as reflected in statutes, contracts, and the common law, would be essentially the same as the approach that Gorsuch proposes. It would go beyond the physical intrusions that the Supreme Court emphasized prior to Katz, since it would take into account evidence such as user agreements, state laws, and court decisions recognizing property rights in “intangible things,” even when they are stored on third-party servers. At the same time, that approach would constrain the “judicial guesswork” that Gorsuch believes has frequently led the Court astray.

Whether couched as a revised Katz test or a return to a “more traditional” understanding of the Fourth Amendment, as Gorsuch describes it, a property-focused analysis would not authorize a broad exception for information shared with third parties. Carpenter and Chatrie suggest that the justices are beginning to recognize the alarming implications of that doctrine.

The post The Supreme Court's 'Reasonable Expectation of Privacy' Test Defies Expectations appeared first on Reason.com.

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Southern Poverty Law Center Pleads Not Guilty To Federal Fraud Charges

Southern Poverty Law Center Pleads Not Guilty To Federal Fraud Charges

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

The Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) on July 7 entered not guilty pleas again to 11 criminal counts alleging it defrauded donors by sending millions of dollars to informants who infiltrated white supremacist and so-called hate groups that it publicly opposed.

The fresh arraignment of the nonprofit organization under a new superseding indictment took place via videoconference before Montgomery, Alabama-based U.S. Magistrate Judge Kelly F. Pate.

The charges, announced on April 21 by FBI Director Kash Patel and acting U.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche, sparked political backlash amid growing questions about the group, which the federal government had previously used to track extremist groups with its “Hate Map” and other online resources.

The original indictment by a federal grand jury charged the SPLC with wire fraud, making false statements to a federally insured bank, and conspiracy to commit money laundering.

The group was alleged to have surreptitiously transferred more than $3 million in donated funds to leaders and organizers of racist groups, including the Ku Klux Klan, the Aryan Nation, and the National Alliance, between 2014 and 2023.

The government said the SPLC sent donations to bank accounts of fake entities that had names such as “Rare Books Warehouse” and “Tech Writers Group.” The accounts were then used to funnel money to alleged informants in the racist groups that it claimed to strongly oppose.

One of the informants allegedly helped to organize the “Unite the Right” protest in 2017 in Charlottesville, Virginia, that turned deadly.

SPLC interim president and CEO Bryan Fair appeared in person on May 7 to plead not guilty to the same charges on behalf of the group.

On July 7, an attorney for the organization appeared by videoconference to enter 11 not guilty pleas to the superseding indictment issued last month that added more details and specifics. The new charging document did not add new charges.

The original indictment alleged $3 million in donor funds was funneled to individuals associated with extremist groups, but the new indictment increases the figure to $4.1 million.

The new indictment provides additional details such as a claim that funds were used by recipients for buying materials for cross burnings and Ku Klux Klan robes and hoods.

The SPLC has filed a motion to dismiss the indictment for vindictive prosecution. The group claims it is being targeted by the Trump administration for political reasons. It is unclear when the court will rule on the motion.

The SPLC is known for its successful fundraising campaigns. According to its most recent publicly available IRS filing, it had gross receipts in tax year 2023 of $339.3 million and assets of $822.2 million.

The FBI severed its relationship with the SPLC in October 2025 after conservatives criticized the group for including slain conservative activist Charlie Kirk’s organization on its list of hate groups. The FBI had previously used SPLC intelligence on domestic extremist groups.

Patel said the organization has turned into a “partisan smear machine” instead of a civil rights advocate.

“Their so-called ‘hate map’ has been used to defame mainstream Americans and even inspired violence,” he said at the time, without elaborating.

The SPLC’s Hate Map lists almost 1,400 groups, including Kirk’s Turning Point USA, categorizing it as an “antigovernment” group.

Critics have long said the Montgomery-based SPLC unfairly labels conservatives as racist as a matter of policy, treats opposition to illegal or legal immigration, open borders, and multiculturalism as hate, and political expression of those views as hate speech.

The Alliance Defending Freedom, a legal organization that defends religious freedom and free speech, says the SPLC “did good work decades ago fighting segregation in the South,” but has since it has become a “far-left activist organization that attacks anyone who disagrees with its narrow political agenda.” Targets have included conservative, libertarian, anti-tax, immigration reductionist, and other groups.

In a statement issued in May, the SPLC called the charges against them “provably wrong” and “based on inaccurate facts and a misapplication of law.” The nonprofit said its informant program has been successful at preventing threats and attacks, stopping criminal activity, and gathering information used to dismantle hate groups.

“There is no question that the information the SPLC shared with law enforcement saved lives,” the statement reads.

It also stated that it was no stranger to legal threats and would continue its mission “no matter what.”

The Epoch Times reached out to the SPLC for comment. No reply was received by publication time.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/08/2026 – 12:05

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63 Million Barrels Of Iranian Oil Stuck At Sea After US Pulls Iran Sanction Waiver

63 Million Barrels Of Iranian Oil Stuck At Sea After US Pulls Iran Sanction Waiver

Tehran’s oil export troubled just got worse. 

One week after we reported that Iran was already struggling to sell its crude to buyers in Asia (including China, which appears to now prefer UAE exports instead), overnight the US rescinded the sanctions waiver that allowed Tehran to sell its oil without penalties, making sales of Iranian crude to international buyers even more challenging. 

The Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday prompted immediate US reaction with the USmilitary striking multiple targets in Iran and the Treasury canceling the waiver on Iran’s oil sales that was supposed to be in place until August 21.

Iran’s oil sales could be constrained again even before they resume, OilPrice reports. Since the memorandum of understanding was signed in mid-June, Iran has rushed to load cargoes from its key export sites at Kharg Island, and move its tankers out of the Gulf as soon as possible, after weeks of virtually no exports because of the U.S. blockade that began in mid-April.

The surge in Iranian shipments out of the Gulf and into waters near the Malacca and Singapore Straits gave Iran a lifeline to boost its exports that had suffered from the U.S. blockade.

China has remained Iran’s key customer as other buyers are reluctant to commit to purchases. But in recent weeks, we learned that even Chinese purchases of Iran oil have slowed dramatically, and now that the US has ended the waiver and sanctions are in place again, buyers in India that were considering potential purchases have likely backed out. 

Additionally, one could go so far as to argue Iranian oil in tankers is once again subject to US seizure.

Iran is thus left with millions of barrels of crude oil on tankers moving or idling in a large area from the Persian Gulf to the Strait of Malacca. Most of the laden tankers do not broadcast destination or broadcast they are for orders, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.

Currently, as many as 63 million barrels of Iranian oil are either in transit or idling in tankers, per Bloomberg’s estimates based on data from Vortexa, which also notes that oil on floating storage in the Gulf has more than doubled in the past week to over 41 million barrels.

“Iran managed to ship out 60 million barrels of crude oil since the US Navy blockade paused in mid-June 2026,” TankerTrackers.com said late on Tuesday, after the U.S.-Iran tensions escalated again.

“If the blockade were to resume now due to escalating tensions, Iran would be stuck with ~50 million barrels of crude oil and refined products.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/08/2026 – 11:45

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Trump Greenlights Patriot Missile Production In Ukraine, Praises Deep Strikes Into Russia

Trump Greenlights Patriot Missile Production In Ukraine, Praises Deep Strikes Into Russia

President Trump just prior to entering the Oval Office vowed to quickly achieve peace in the Russia-Ukraine war, which is currently in its fifth year. The MAGA base got energized by Trump’s earlier repeat statements that he’d bring peace to major global flashpoints and hotspots, but instead of anti-interventionism he started a new war of choice in the Middle East, and is now tripling down on military support to Kiev.

While in Turkey for the annual NATO summit, President Trump commented on the issue of Ukrainian drone strikes deep into Russian territory on its oil refineries and defense manufacturing facilities, which has unleashed a fuel crisis in various parts of Russia and especially Crimea.

“It’s an escalation but it’s also an escalation that can help lead to an end [of the war],” the US President told the NATO summit.

via AFP

After heaping lavish praise on Ukraine forces for supposedly turning the tide of battle and momentum in Kiev’s favor, Trump also said, “We have a lot of pressure on President Putin. I don’t think he likes what’s going on. He added: “But I talked to President Putin a lot. He wants to end the war.”

The Wall Street Journal comments in the wake of Trump’s remarks:

President Trump said he supported Ukraine striking targets deep inside Russian territory, calling it an escalation that could help end the war.

…In a marked contrast to past meetings between the two leaders, Trump opened his press conference with President Volodymyr Zelensky by offering warm words and fresh promises of military cooperation with Ukraine, providing a major boon for Kyiv and its supporters in Europe. Trump praised Ukraine’s bravery, signaled he would consider granting Kyiv a license to produce U.S. Patriot missile interceptors and said he would consider travel to Kyiv at the right time in peace talks.

On this, Trump said Washington would give Ukraine “the right to make Patriots” – after Zelensky has for at least six months been relentless in requesting this, framing it as urgent and for the protection of cities and civilians.

“We’ll show them how to do it,” Trump stated, describing the system as “very complex” – though he also said the Ukrainians would “figure out the complexity quickly.”

Trump continued by saying that American defense firms are already building “four plants” and claimed that “all of our companies will be able to do this in two to three months.”

However, there have notoriously been immense backlogs when it comes to Patriot production, and there’s said to be great global demand among US allies, especially given depletions which have come as a result of the Iran war.

It’s hard to know of this is just more bluster – and what will actually materialize as far as this promises – but Moscow will only see this as another US step up the escalation ladder. Earlier this week, Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov said the Ukraine conflict is no longer just a “special military operation” but a real war, because Kiev is backed by Berlin, Paris, The Hague, Oslo, and Washington – complete with Western weapons, satellites, and infrastructure helping direct strikes.

“In these conditions, we must be clear-eyed: the Kiev regime is capable of anything,” Peskov said in an interview.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/08/2026 – 11:05

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