Top Financial Experts Say World War 3 Is Coming … Unless We Stop It

Nouriel Roubini, Kyle Bass, Hugo Salinas Price, Charles Nenner, James Dines, Jim Rogers, David Stockman, Marc Faber, Jim Rickards, Paul Craig Roberts, Martin Armstrong, Larry Edelson, Gerald Celente and Others Warn of Wider War

Paul Craig Roberts – former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury under President Reagan, former editor of the Wall Street Journal, listed by Who’s Who in America as one of the 1,000 most influential political thinkers in the world, PhD economist – wrote an article yesterday about the build up of hostilities between the U.S. and Russia titled, simply: "War Is Coming".  In the article, Roberts notes:

As reported by Tyler Durden of Zero Hedge, the Russian response to the extra-legal ruling of a corrupt court in the Netherlands, which had no jurisdiction over the case on which it ruled, awarding $50 billion dollars from the Russian government to shareholders of Yukos, a corrupt entity that was looting Russia and evading taxes, is telling. Asked what Russia would do about the ruling, an advisor to President Putin replied, “There is a war coming in Europe.” Do you really think this ruling matters?”

In January, well-known economist Nouriel Roubini tweeted from the gathering of the rich and powerful at the World Economic Forum in Davos:

Many speakers compare 2014 to 1914 when WWI broke out & no one expected it. A black swan in the form of a war between China & Japan?

And:

Both Abe and an influential Chinese analyst don't rule out a military confrontation between China and Japan. Memories of 1914?

Billionaire hedge fund manager Kyle Bass writes:

Trillions of dollars of debts will be restructured and millions of financially prudent savers will lose large percentages of their real purchasing power at exactly the wrong time in their lives. Again, the world will not end, but the social fabric of the profligate nations will be stretched and in some cases torn. Sadly, looking back through economic history, all too often war is the manifestation of simple economic entropy played to its logical conclusion. We believe that war is an inevitable consequence of the current global economic situation.

Reagan's head of the Office of Management and Budget – David Stockman – is posting pieces warning of the dispute between the U.S. and Russia leading to World War 3.

Investment adviser Larry Edelson wrote an email to subscribers entitled “What the “Cycles of War” are saying for 2013″, which states:

Since the 1980s, I’ve been studying the so-called “cycles of war” — the natural rhythms that predispose societies to descend into chaos, into hatred, into civil and even international war.

 

I’m certainly not the first person to examine these very distinctive patterns in history. There have been many before me, notably, Raymond Wheeler, who published the most authoritative chronicle of war ever, covering a period of 2,600 years of data.

 

However, there are very few people who are willing to even discuss the issue right now. And based on what I’m seeing, the implications could be absolutely huge ….

Former Goldman Sachs technical analyst Charles Nenner – who has made some big accurate calls, and counts major hedge funds, banks, brokerage houses, and high net worth individuals as clients – says there will be “a major war”, which will drive the Dow to 5,000.

Veteran investor adviser James Dines forecast a war is epochal as World Wars I and II, starting in the Middle East.

Economist and investment manager Marc Faber says that the American government will start new wars in response to the economic crisis:

Martin Armstrong – who has managed multi-billion dollar sovereign investment funds – wrote in August:

Our greatest problem is the bureaucracy wants a war. This will distract everyone from the NSA and justify what they have been doing. They need a distraction for the economic decline that is coming.

Armstrong wrote a piece yesterday entitled, "Why We will Go to War with Russia", and another one today saying, "Prepare for World War III".)

Bad Economic Theories

What's causing the slide towards war? We discuss several causes below.

Initially, believe it or not, one cause is that many influential economists and  talking heads hold the discredited belief that war is good for the economy.

Therefore, many are overtly or more subtly pushing for war.

Challengers Give Declining Empires "Itchy Fingers"

Moreover, historians say that declining empires tend to attack their rising rivals … so the risk of world war is rising because the U.S. feels threatened by the rising empire of China.

The U.S. government considers economic rivalry to be a basis for war. Therefore, the U.S. is systematically using the military to contain China’s growing economic influence.

Competition for Resources Is Heating Up

In addition, it is well-established that competition for scarce resources often leads to war.  For example, Oxford University's Quarterly Journal of Economics notes:

In his classic, A Study of War, Wright (1942) devotes a chapter to the relationship between war and resources. Another classic reference, Statistics of Deadly Quarrels by Richardson (1960),extensively discusses economic causes of war, including the control of “sources of essential commodities.”A large literature pioneered by Homer-Dixon (1991, 1999) argues that scarcity of various environmental resources is a major cause of conflict and resource wars (see Toset, Gleditsch, and Hegre 2000, for empirical evidence).

 

***

 

In the War of the Pacific (1879–1884), Chile fought against a defensive alliance of Bolivia and Peru for the control of guano [i.e. bird poop; insert joke here] mineral deposits. The war was precipitated by the rise in the value of the deposits due to their extensive use in agriculture.

 

***

 

Westing (1986) argues that many of the wars in the twentieth century had an important resource dimension.  As examples he cites the Algerian War of Independence (1954–1962), the Six Day War (1967), and the Chaco War (1932–1935). More recently, Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990 was a result of the dispute over the Rumaila oil field.  In Resource Wars (2001), Klare argues that following the end of the Cold War, control of valuable natural resources has become increasingly important, and these resources will become a primary motivation for wars in the future.

Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan (and many world leaders) admitted that the Iraq war was really about oil, and former Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill says that Bush planned the Iraq war before 9/11. And see this and this. Libya, Syria, Iran and Russia are all oil-producing countries as well …

Indeed, we've extensively documented that the wars in the Middle East and North Africa are largely about oil and gas. The war in Gaza may be no exception. And see this. And Ukraine may largely be about gas as well.

And James Quinn and Charles Hugh Smith say we're running out of all sorts of resources  … which will lead to war.

Central Banking and Currency Wars

We’re in the middle of a global currency war – i.e. a situation where nations all compete to devalue their currencies the most in order to boost exports. Brazilian president Rousseff said in 2010:

The last time there was a series of competitive devaluations … it ended in world war two.

Jim Rickards agrees:

Currency wars lead to trade wars, which often lead to hot wars. In 2009, Rickards participated in the Pentagon’s first-ever “financial” war games. While expressing confidence in America’s ability to defeat any other nation-state in battle, Rickards says the U.S. could get dragged into “asymmetric warfare,” if currency wars lead to rising inflation and global economic uncertainty.

As does billionaire investor Jim Rogers:

Trade wars always lead to wars.

Given that China, Russia, India, Brazil and South Africa have just joined together to create a $100 billion bank based in China, and that more and more trades are being settled in Yuan or Rubles – instead of dollars – the currency war is hotting up.

Multi-billionaire investor Hugo Salinas Price says:

What happened to [Libya's] Mr. Gaddafi, many speculate the real reason he was ousted was that he was planning an all-African currency for conducting trade. The same thing happened to him that happened to Saddam because the US doesn’t want any solid competing currency out there vs the dollar. You know Gaddafi was talking about a gold dinar.

Indeed, senior CNBC editor John Carney noted:

Is this the first time a revolutionary group has created a central bank while it is still in the midst of fighting the entrenched political power? It certainly seems to indicate how extraordinarily powerful central bankers have become in our era.

 

Robert Wenzel of Economic Policy Journal thinks the central banking initiative reveals that foreign powers may have a strong influence over the rebels.

 

This suggests we have a bit more than a ragtag bunch of rebels running around and that there are some pretty sophisticated influences. “I have never before heard of a central bank being created in just a matter of weeks out of a popular uprising,” Wenzel writes.

Indeed, some say that recent wars have really been about bringing all countries into the fold of Western central banking.

Finally, trend forecaster Gerald Celente – who has been making some accurate financial and geopolitical predictions for decades – says WW3 will start soon.

Debt

Martin Armstrong argued that war plans against Syria are really about debt and spending:

The Syrian mess seems to have people lining up on Capital Hill when sources there say the phone calls coming in are overwhelmingly against any action. The politicians are ignoring the people entirely. This suggests there is indeed a secret agenda to achieve a goal outside the discussion box. That is most like the debt problem and a war is necessary to relief the pressure to curtail spending.

The same logic applies to Ukraine and other countries.

Billionaire investor Jim Rogers notes:

A continuation of bailouts in Europe could ultimately spark another world war, says international investor Jim Rogers.

 

***

 

“Add debt, the situation gets worse, and eventually it just collapses. Then everybody is looking for scapegoats. Politicians blame foreigners, and we’re in World War II or World War whatever.”

Americans Don't Want War

Poll after poll shows that the American people don't want to get involved in any more wars.

After all, we spent trillions in Iraq and Afghanistan, and Americans are exhausted.  Not only does a top Pentagon official say we’re no safer – and perhaps less safe – after 13 years of war, but it has now been shown that war  hurts our economy.

Never-ending wars are also destroying our democratic republic.   The Founding Fathers warned against standing armies, saying that they destroy freedom.   They were right …

And they warned against financing wars with debt.    But according to Nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, the U.S. debt for the Iraq war could be as high as $5 trillion dollars (or $6 trillion dollars according to a study by Brown University.)  The U.S. has the largest standing army in history, and treats anti-war sentiment as terrorism.

But war is great for the bankers  and the defense contractors.  And – as discussed above – governments are desperate for war.

So it's up to us – the people – to stop wider war.




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1rV1hIl George Washington

Saudi Man Receives 3 Year Prison Sentence And 450 Lashes For Being Gay

Submitted by Mike Krieger of Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

Saudi Arabia and its Medieval, inhumane monarchy has been a highlighted topic on Liberty Blitzkrieg for well over a year now. My government’s close alliance with this autocratic, homophobic and primitive fiefdom exposes the sham that is U.S. foreign policy more clearly than anything else. In exposing this authoritarian regime for what it really is, I hope that the American public will never again fall for war under the guise of false “humanitarian” purposes. There is nothing whatsoever humanitarian about U.S. foreign policy.

From the UK Independent:

A Saudi Arabian man has been sentenced to three years in jail and 450 lashes after he was caught using Twitter to arrange dates with other men.

 

The 24-year-old man who has not been named, was given his sentence after the court in Medina, Saudi Arabia, found him guilty of “promoting the vice and practice of homosexuality.”

 

According to a report in the daily Arabic newspaper Al-Watan, the man was arrested following an entrapment ploy by the Commission for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice (CPVPV).

 

In Saudi Arabia, like most of the Middle East, homosexuality is a taboo and can result in harsh punishments if someone is found guilty.

 

By law, any married man found engaging in sodomy or any non-Muslim who commits sodomy with a Muslim can be stoned to death.

 

Other punishments to be handed out to those found guilty of homosexuality include chemical castrations, imprisonment and execution.

All these practices sure don’t stop the U.S. from forming alliances left and right throughout the region. Look, I get it. In foreign policy, you sometimes have to be pragmatic and deal with nations with abhorrent “cultural” practices. That said, don’t ever try to turn around and tell me you need to use my taxpayer dollars to go bomb some country for “humanitarian purposes.” My country’s government has less than zero regard for human rights, internally or externally. So stop with the fucking bullshit already.

For more examples of Saudi inhumanity and U.S. links to it, see:

How the NSA is Actively Helping Saudi Arabia to Crackdown on Dissent

Must Watch Video – Congressman Thomas Massie Calls for Release of Secret 9/11 Documents Upon Reading Them

Saudi Human Rights Lawyer and Activist Jailed for 15 Years for Free Speech Under New “Anti-Terror” Law

Saudi Arabia Passes New Law that Declares Atheists “Terrorists”

Meet the U.S. Allies – Saudi Arabia Passes Draconian, Medieval Laws to Crush Dissent

Full article here.


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1n9kRJh Tyler Durden

Chinese Yuan Surges & Stocks Jump To 2014 Highs After PBOC Unleashes QE

Quietly, and without the drama associated with The Fed and ECB, China unveiled what looks like QE recently (as we discussed in detail here). Whether this is a stealth creation of a ‘fannie-mae’ structure to support housing or merely another channel for the PBOC to shovel out hole-filling liquidity is unclear. However, one thing is very clear, demand for CNY is surging (even as the PBOC weakens its fixing) and the Shanghai Composite is surging as hot money chases free money once again…

 

The Yuan has rallied (lower on the chart) for 8 days straight as PBOC weakened its Fix.

 

The Chinese stock market has quietly surged to its highest since December – outperforming the Dow now year-to-date…

 

BofA believes 3 factors are at play here:

1. China: better data on exports & PMI, GDP upgrades (BofAML upgraded 2014 GDP growth forecast to 7.4% from 7.2%), policy U-turn putting floor on growth, hopes for a Chinese QE, success in anti-corruption igniting hopes for reform. And China is of course relatively inexpensive and out of favor: in price-to-book terms, Chinese financials are trading at their cheapest level in more than 9 years relative to global financials

 

2. US growth: NE Asia has historically been a play on US growth; no coincidence that flows to NE Asian markets are coinciding with stronger US GDP (up 4% in  Q2).

 

3. The end of the carry-trade: this is the more intriguing argument. Almost all investors we meet believe that a rise in stock markets and a decline in bond yields will not continue indefinitely. We believe concern that rates must inevitably “normalize” in coming months as growth picks-up, and concern that a flip in Treasury yields causes stocks to decline is causing investors to consider raising cash and finding uncorrelated investments. Japan, China and Korea rank in the top ten equity markets least positively correlated with SPX and most positively correlated with movements in 30y UST yield (correlation analysis based on weekly log change over the past 10 years). Carry-trades are at risk from rising rates. We think markets with low yields and higher exposure to US economic growth will be better protected if the backdrop flips from Low Rates-Low Growth to High Growth-Higher Rates.

Charts: Bloomberg


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1rV1iwa Tyler Durden

Chinese Yuan Surges & Stocks Jump To 2014 Highs After PBOC Unleashes QE

Quietly, and without the drama associated with The Fed and ECB, China unveiled what looks like QE recently (as we discussed in detail here). Whether this is a stealth creation of a ‘fannie-mae’ structure to support housing or merely another channel for the PBOC to shovel out hole-filling liquidity is unclear. However, one thing is very clear, demand for CNY is surging (even as the PBOC weakens its fixing) and the Shanghai Composite is surging as hot money chases free money once again…

 

The Yuan has rallied (lower on the chart) for 8 days straight as PBOC weakened its Fix.

 

The Chinese stock market has quietly surged to its highest since December – outperforming the Dow now year-to-date…

 

BofA believes 3 factors are at play here:

1. China: better data on exports & PMI, GDP upgrades (BofAML upgraded 2014 GDP growth forecast to 7.4% from 7.2%), policy U-turn putting floor on growth, hopes for a Chinese QE, success in anti-corruption igniting hopes for reform. And China is of course relatively inexpensive and out of favor: in price-to-book terms, Chinese financials are trading at their cheapest level in more than 9 years relative to global financials

 

2. US growth: NE Asia has historically been a play on US growth; no coincidence that flows to NE Asian markets are coinciding with stronger US GDP (up 4% in  Q2).

 

3. The end of the carry-trade: this is the more intriguing argument. Almost all investors we meet believe that a rise in stock markets and a decline in bond yields will not continue indefinitely. We believe concern that rates must inevitably “normalize” in coming months as growth picks-up, and concern that a flip in Treasury yields causes stocks to decline is causing investors to consider raising cash and finding uncorrelated investments. Japan, China and Korea rank in the top ten equity markets least positively correlated with SPX and most positively correlated with movements in 30y UST yield (correlation analysis based on weekly log change over the past 10 years). Carry-trades are at risk from rising rates. We think markets with low yields and higher exposure to US economic growth will be better protected if the backdrop flips from Low Rates-Low Growth to High Growth-Higher Rates.

Charts: Bloomberg


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1rV1iwa Tyler Durden

The Coming Slump

Submitted by Alasdair Macleod via The Cobden Centre blog,

Governments and central banks have made little or no progress in recovering from the Lehman crisis six years ago. The problem is not helped by dependence on statistics which are downright misleading. This is particularly true of real GDP, comprised of nominal GDP deflated by an estimate of price inflation. First, we must discuss the inflation adjustment.

The idea that there is such a thing as a valid measure of price inflation is only true in an econometrician’s imagination. An index which might be theoretically valid at a single point in time is only subsequently valid in the wholly artificial construction of an unchanging, or “evenly rotating economy”: in other words an economy where everyone who is employed remains in the same employment producing at the same rate, retains the same proportion of cash liquidity, and buys exactly the same things in the same quantities. Furthermore business inventory quantities must also be static. All human choice must be excluded for this condition. Only then can any differences in prices be identified as due to changes in the quantity of money and credit. Besides this fiction, an accurate index cannot then be constructed, because not every economic transaction is reported. Furthermore biases are built into the index, for example to overweight consumer spending relative to capital investment, and to incorporate government activity which is provided to users free of cost or subsidised. Buying art, stockmarket investments or a house are as much economic transactions as buying a loaf of bread, but these activities and many like them are specifically excluded. Worse still, adjustments are often made to conceal price increases in index constituents under one pretext or another.

Economic activities are also only selectively included in GDP, which is supposed to be the total of a country’s transactions over a period of time expressed as a money total. A perfect GDP number would include all economic transactions, and in this case would capture the changes in consumer preferences excluded from a static price index. But there is no way of identifying them to tell the difference between changes due to economic progress and changes due to monetary inflation.

To illustrate this point further, let’s assume that in a nation’s economy there is no change in the quantity of money earned, held in cash, borrowed or repaid between two dates. This being the case, what will be the change in GDP? The answer is obviously zero. People can make and buy different products and offer and pay for different services at different prices, but if the total amount of money spent is unchanged there can be no change in GDP. Instead of measuring economic growth, a meaningless term, it only measures the quantity of money spent. To summarise so far, governments are using a price index, for which there is no sound theoretical basis, to deflate a money quantity mistakenly believed to represent economic progress. In our haste to dispense with the reality of markets we have substituted half-baked ideas utilising dodgy numbers. The error goes wholly unrecognised by the majority of economists, market commentators and of course the political classes.

It also explains some of the disconnection between monetary and price inflation. Price inflation in this context refers to the increase in prices due to demand enabled by extra money and credit. As already stated, newly issued money today is spent on assets and financial speculation, excluded from both GDP and its deflator.

It stands to reason that actions based on wrong assumptions will not achieve the intended result. The assumption is that money-printing and credit expansion are not having an inflationary effect, because the statistics say so. But as we have seen, the statistics are selective, focusing on current consumption. Objective enquiry about wider consequences is deterred, and nowhere is this truer than when seeking an understanding of the wider effects of monetary inflation. This leads us to the second error: we ignore the fact that monetary inflation is a transfer of wealth from the public to the creators of new money and credit.

The transfer of wealth through monetary inflation is initially selective, before being distributed more generally. The issuers of new currency and credit are governments and the banks, both of which reap the maximum benefit of utilising them before any prices rise. But the ultimate losers are the majority of the population: by the time new money ends up in wider circulation prices have already risen to reflect its existence.

Everywhere, monetary inflation transfers real wealth from ordinary people on fixed salaries or with savings. In the US for example, since the Lehman crisis money on deposit has increased from $5.4 trillion to $12.9 trillion. This gives us an idea of how much the original deposits are being devalued through monetary inflation, a continuing effect gradually revealed through those original deposits’ diminishing purchasing-power. The scale of wealth transfer from the public to both the government and the commercial banks, which is in addition to visible taxes, is strangling economic activity.

The supposed stimulation of an economy by monetary means relies on sloppy analysis and the ignorance of the losers. Unfortunately, it is process once embarked on that is difficult to stop without exposing the true weakness of government finances and the fragility of the banking system. Governments with the burden of public welfare costs are in a debt trap from which they lack the resolve to escape. The transformation of an economy from no monetary discipline into one based on sound-money principals is widely thought by central bankers to risk creating a major banking crisis. The crisis will indeed come, but it will probably have its origins in the inability of individuals, robbed of the purchasing power of their fixed salaries and savings, to pay the prices demanded from them by businesses. This is called a slump, an old-fashioned term for the simultaneous contraction of production and demand. Not even zero or negative interest rates will save the banks from this increasingly certain event, for a very simple reason: by continuing the transfer of wealth from individuals through monetary inflation, the cure will finally kill the patient.

There is a growing certainty in the global economic outlook that is deeply alarming. The welfare-driven nations continue to impoverish their people by debauching their currencies. As Japan’s desperate monetary expansion now shows, far from improving her economic outlook, she is moving into a deepening slump, for which this article provides the explanation. Unfortunately we are all on the path to the same destructive process.


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1AFpO6U Tyler Durden

China PMI Jumps To 2 Year Highs (Jobs Contract For 27 Months), Japan PMI Slips (Jobs Worst In 11 Months)

China’s official manufacturing PMI beat expectations by the most since Nov 2013 and jumped to its highest since April 2012 – sure it did after all the forget-the-reforms liquidity, QE-lite, and local government spending dragged forward.

 

Perhaps worryingly the steel industry saw domestic and export new orders crater (from 55.7 to 48.2 in July). The employment sub-index fell once again (now in contraction since May 2012) as large enterprises dominated the upbeat report (medium and small clinging to 50.1 PMIs).

*  *  *

Japan’s PMI dropped for the first time in 3 months from 50.8 to 50.5 with output contracting and payrolls only marginally positive (slowest since August 2013).

Manufacturers in Japan reported a fall in output from a previous month of growth during July. That said, the rate of contraction was only fractional. According to panellists, the increase in the sales tax was still having a detrimental effect on production levels.

 

 

*  *  *

And then to end the night, Markit/HSBC’s China Manufacturing PMI drops from its Flash 52.0 to 51.7 – perfectly in line with the government’s data.

 

Markit’s data confirms the ongoing contraction in employment but new export orders surged by the most in 44 months (to whom?)

 

“The HSBC China Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.7 in the final reading for July, the highest since early 2013. This is slightly lower than the flash reading released earlier, as several sub-indices saw small downward revisions. Nevertheless, the economy is improving sequentially and registered across-the-board improvement compared to June. Policy makers are continuing with targeted easing in recent weeks and we expect the cumulative impact of these measures to filter through in the next few months and help consolidate the recovery.”

*  *  *

While we know the trade data for China is still fake, we leave it to Diapason Commodities’ Sean Corrigan to explain the ‘discrepancies’ that abound in the PMI surveys and hard data

And why not when, pressured from above to ‘frontload’ their outlays, local government expenditures rose 16.4% year on year in the first half (and 6.1% in June alone) while basic tax revenues (i.e., receipts not including land sales) declined by around 4%?
Why not, again, when under the approach of ‘Every stimulus of a macro
import begins with a micro step’, the credit spigots were once more
liberally opened as the quarter wore on, to the point that June combined
the second biggest jump in M1 on record with a 32% yoy leap in ‘shadow’ finance (admittedly that latter calculated from a base which included last year’s quarter-end liquidity shock)?

In any case, what
is clear is that, taking the numbers at face value, debt levels are
still rising with destructive rapidity in order to achieve even such
spotty results as these.

Coming from the broadest perspective, Nominal GDP in the June quarter was an annualized CNY4.7 trillion greater than that of a year a year ago, but in that like period the stock of ‘total social financing’ outstanding mounted almost four times as much, or by CNY17.7 trillion.

And now QE is flowing too…


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1s8m3SE Tyler Durden

Israel, Gaza and Palestine: What Americans Need to Know

If my fellow Americans understood the history of Israel and Palestine, their views would change overnight … and they would demand that Israel no longer be given unconditional support and blank checks to do whatever they want …

Apartheid and Occupation

Terrorism

Public Opinion

War Crimes

More




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Previewing Tomorrow's 'Anti-Goldilocks' Payrolls Data

It appears – judging by today’s shenanigans – that good news for Main Street (rising employment costs) is bad news (for stocks), though obviously there are other factors; but tomorrow’s payrolls data is the last best hope before the Fed finishes its taper for them to pull a ‘data-driven’ U-turn out of the bag. Consensus is for a drop from last month’s exuberance at 288k to 230k (with Barclays slightly cold and Deutsche slightly hot). The fear, for market bulls, is that the print is anti-goldilocks now – not bad enough to provide excuses for lower-longer Fed rates; and not high enough to justify the hockey-stick of miraculous H2 growth priced into stocks. Average S&P gains on NFP Friday are 0.5% but recently have become more noisy.

Over 200k would be the 6th month in a row for the first time since 1997!

Over 300k (above highest expectations) and we suspect The Fed would be under pressure as that would mean a six-month average above the last expansion cycle peak…

Under 150k (below lowest expectations) and The Fed will fall back into lower longer, tease with moar QE mode…

 

Barclays is modestly lower than consensus:

We forecast a rise of 225k in US payrolls in July, softer than June’s 288k gain, but in line with the 231k average monthly increase in 1H 14. Initial and continuing jobless claims fell between the June and July survey weeks, and other indicators also point to solid job growth. The breadth of improvement across labor market indicators and recent trends in job growth hints at some upside risk to our forecast. We look for the strong pace of job growth to lead to a fall in the unemployment rate to 6.0% from 6.1%. Elsewhere in the report, we look for a 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings and for the workweek to remain unchanged at 34.5.

Goldman’s Jari Stehn is right above consensus at 235k:

  • We expect a 235,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls and a one tenth drop in the unemployment rate to 6.0%. As far as payrolls are concerned, our forecast would be a solid gain but at a pace slightly below that seen over the past few months. While a number of labor market indicators improved slightly in July (including jobless claims, the business survey employment components and household job market perceptions), other considerations point to a deceleration in the pace of employment creation (including a slowdown in ADP employment growth, softer online job advertising, higher layoffs and the composition of the June payroll gain).

We forecast a 235,000 gain in nonfarm payrolls in June, a one tenth drop in the unemployment rate to 6.0%, and a 0.2% increase in average hourly earnings. As far as payrolls are concerned, our forecast is slightly above the latest 230,000 Bloomberg consensus, but below the current three-month moving average of 272,000.

 

A number of labor market indicators were somewhat stronger in July:

 

1. Slightly lower jobless claims. During the employment survey period (the week including the 12th of each month), initial jobless claims declined by 11,000 on a spot basis and 3,000 on a 4-week moving average basis. Continuing jobless claims were also down slightly.

 

2. Somewhat better business surveys. The employment components of the main business surveys at hand–Empire, Philly Fed and Chicago PMI–all edged up in July.

 

3. Improved household job market perceptions. The difference between households viewing jobs as “plentiful” vs. “hard to get” improved from -16.1% in June to -14.8% in July, the best reading since May 2008.

 

Other considerations, however, point to a deceleration in the pace of employment creation in July:

 

1. A slowdown in ADP private employment growth. The ADP measure of private employment growth decelerated more than expected, from 280,000 in June to 218,000 in July. That said, ADP has generally not been a reliable predictor of private payroll growth, either before or after the latest round of changes to the methodology in 2012.

 

2. Softer online help-wanted advertising. The Conference Board’s survey of online help-wanted ads showed a seasonally adjusted drop of 15,000 in July, following a large gain in June.

 

3. Higher layoffs. The Challenger, Gray, and Christmas survey of announced job cuts showed a seasonally adjusted increase from 31,000 in June to 47,000 in July. The job-cut news was dominated by Microsoft, which announced plans to reduce its workforce by as many as 18,000.

 

4. Special factors. Finally, the composition of the June report points to a couple of areas where we might see some reversal in July. First, employment in auto retailing was unusually strong in June (worth 10,000). Second, June showed an atypically large gain in state and local government employment (worth 20,000), possibly due to seasonal distortions associated with the end of school year.

 

Taken together, we therefore expect a deceleration of the pace of payroll growth to 235,000 in July. We furthermore forecast a one-tenth decline in the unemployment rate to 6.0%, which is predicated on a roughly stable labor force participation rate. We expect average hourly earnings to rise by about 0.2%.

Deutsche Bank’s Joe Lavorgna (after his 7 sigma miss in Chincago PMI today) is above consensus expectations at 250k:

July initial jobless claims suggest we could see a much stronger nonfarm payroll number, at least post-revision, than what we are expecting.

Deutsche Bank’s FX quant team analyzes the historical performances…

Broadly as expected data this week, will probably be taken as ‘another bullet dodged’ and favor risk appetite temporarily, but the USD is losing its status as a favored funding currency to the JPY and EUR and this is unlikely to change without significantly softer than expected US numbers.

 

 

 

The front-end (2y yield) has had the most consistent on the day reaction to payroll surprises this year, and the front-end (Eurodollar and fed fund futures) should remain one of the more reliable places to express macro trades.

Intraday:
Intra-day patterns this year show that of the post-release responses, USD/JPY has tended to reverse its 5 minute move on 3 out of the last 7 releases – which is disconcerting and affirms the data needs to surprise substantially to generate follow-through.

 

 

 

A mix of two strong additional (July and August) employment reports that push the U3 unemployment rate below 6% by the September FOMC meeting, will l
ikely be enough to prompt a clear change in Fed tone, adding reinforcement to the recent stronger USD tendency.

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Anti-Goldilocks? or miraclous Goldilocks reversal? Well it is Friday after all…




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Previewing Tomorrow’s ‘Anti-Goldilocks’ Payrolls Data

It appears – judging by today’s shenanigans – that good news for Main Street (rising employment costs) is bad news (for stocks), though obviously there are other factors; but tomorrow’s payrolls data is the last best hope before the Fed finishes its taper for them to pull a ‘data-driven’ U-turn out of the bag. Consensus is for a drop from last month’s exuberance at 288k to 230k (with Barclays slightly cold and Deutsche slightly hot). The fear, for market bulls, is that the print is anti-goldilocks now – not bad enough to provide excuses for lower-longer Fed rates; and not high enough to justify the hockey-stick of miraculous H2 growth priced into stocks. Average S&P gains on NFP Friday are 0.5% but recently have become more noisy.

Over 200k would be the 6th month in a row for the first time since 1997!

Over 300k (above highest expectations) and we suspect The Fed would be under pressure as that would mean a six-month average above the last expansion cycle peak…

Under 150k (below lowest expectations) and The Fed will fall back into lower longer, tease with moar QE mode…

 

Barclays is modestly lower than consensus:

We forecast a rise of 225k in US payrolls in July, softer than June’s 288k gain, but in line with the 231k average monthly increase in 1H 14. Initial and continuing jobless claims fell between the June and July survey weeks, and other indicators also point to solid job growth. The breadth of improvement across labor market indicators and recent trends in job growth hints at some upside risk to our forecast. We look for the strong pace of job growth to lead to a fall in the unemployment rate to 6.0% from 6.1%. Elsewhere in the report, we look for a 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings and for the workweek to remain unchanged at 34.5.

Goldman’s Jari Stehn is right above consensus at 235k:

  • We expect a 235,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls and a one tenth drop in the unemployment rate to 6.0%. As far as payrolls are concerned, our forecast would be a solid gain but at a pace slightly below that seen over the past few months. While a number of labor market indicators improved slightly in July (including jobless claims, the business survey employment components and household job market perceptions), other considerations point to a deceleration in the pace of employment creation (including a slowdown in ADP employment growth, softer online job advertising, higher layoffs and the composition of the June payroll gain).

We forecast a 235,000 gain in nonfarm payrolls in June, a one tenth drop in the unemployment rate to 6.0%, and a 0.2% increase in average hourly earnings. As far as payrolls are concerned, our forecast is slightly above the latest 230,000 Bloomberg consensus, but below the current three-month moving average of 272,000.

 

A number of labor market indicators were somewhat stronger in July:

 

1. Slightly lower jobless claims. During the employment survey period (the week including the 12th of each month), initial jobless claims declined by 11,000 on a spot basis and 3,000 on a 4-week moving average basis. Continuing jobless claims were also down slightly.

 

2. Somewhat better business surveys. The employment components of the main business surveys at hand–Empire, Philly Fed and Chicago PMI–all edged up in July.

 

3. Improved household job market perceptions. The difference between households viewing jobs as “plentiful” vs. “hard to get” improved from -16.1% in June to -14.8% in July, the best reading since May 2008.

 

Other considerations, however, point to a deceleration in the pace of employment creation in July:

 

1. A slowdown in ADP private employment growth. The ADP measure of private employment growth decelerated more than expected, from 280,000 in June to 218,000 in July. That said, ADP has generally not been a reliable predictor of private payroll growth, either before or after the latest round of changes to the methodology in 2012.

 

2. Softer online help-wanted advertising. The Conference Board’s survey of online help-wanted ads showed a seasonally adjusted drop of 15,000 in July, following a large gain in June.

 

3. Higher layoffs. The Challenger, Gray, and Christmas survey of announced job cuts showed a seasonally adjusted increase from 31,000 in June to 47,000 in July. The job-cut news was dominated by Microsoft, which announced plans to reduce its workforce by as many as 18,000.

 

4. Special factors. Finally, the composition of the June report points to a couple of areas where we might see some reversal in July. First, employment in auto retailing was unusually strong in June (worth 10,000). Second, June showed an atypically large gain in state and local government employment (worth 20,000), possibly due to seasonal distortions associated with the end of school year.

 

Taken together, we therefore expect a deceleration of the pace of payroll growth to 235,000 in July. We furthermore forecast a one-tenth decline in the unemployment rate to 6.0%, which is predicated on a roughly stable labor force participation rate. We expect average hourly earnings to rise by about 0.2%.

Deutsche Bank’s Joe Lavorgna (after his 7 sigma miss in Chincago PMI today) is above consensus expectations at 250k:

July initial jobless claims suggest we could see a much stronger nonfarm payroll number, at least post-revision, than what we are expecting.

Deutsche Bank’s FX quant team analyzes the historical performances…

Broadly as expected data this week, will probably be taken as ‘another bullet dodged’ and favor risk appetite temporarily, but the USD is losing its status as a favored funding currency to the JPY and EUR and this is unlikely to change without significantly softer than expected US numbers.

 

 

 

The front-end (2y yield) has had the most consistent on the day reaction to payroll surprises this year, and the front-end (Eurodollar and fed fund futures) should remain one of the more reliable places to express macro trades.

Intraday:
Intra-day patterns this year show that of the post-release responses, USD/JPY has tended to reverse its 5 minute move on 3 out of the last 7 releases – which is disconcerting and affirms the data needs to surprise substantially to generate follow-through.

 

 

 

A mix of two strong additional (July and August) employment reports that push the U3 unemployment rate below 6% by the September FOMC meeting, will likely be enough to prompt a clear change in Fed tone, adding reinforcement to the recent stronger USD tendency.

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Anti-Goldilocks? or miraclous Goldilocks reversal? Well it is Friday after all…




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Thursday Humor: The Fed Is Hiring

An auditor…

Job Description:

The Audit Function assists the Bank’s Board of Directors and senior management in the effective discharge of their fiduciary responsibilities by assessing the adequacy and effectiveness of the controls within Bank business areas over (1) financial reporting, (2) effectiveness and deficiency of operations, and (3) compliance with laws and regulations, and the adequacy of the Bank’s risk management and governance processes. 

Job Responsibilities

  • Plan and conduct audits of various Federal Reserve Bank operations to assess the adequacy and effectiveness of its internal controls.
  • Develop knowledge of the risk applicable to the operations in order to create formal risk profiles and identify appropropriate risk-based audit scopes.
  • Develop understanding of the Bank’s businesses and department interrelationships; and apply this knowledge to form appropriate conclusions on the efficiency and effectiveness of business processes.
  • Prepare complete, clear, and concise workpaper documentation and audit memos that reflect timely and relevant analysis and recommendations.
  • Complete assignments within established timeframes
  • Communicate the audit results to Audit and Bank senior management verbally and in a formal

Job Competencies

  • BS/BA undergraduate degree
  • Minimum 2 years of internal audit experience, preferably with strong knowledge of business process risks and controls.  Knowledge of cash vault operations or Federal Reserve Bank cash processing a plus
  • Certified Internal Auditor (CIA) designation or a willingness to complete a program to obtain certification within 1 year of the hiring date
  • Team player capable of building teamwork, as well as, collaborative relationships with operations management throughout the organization
  • Strong critical thinking, analytical, written, and verbal communication skills
  • Proficient in the use of PC applications and automated analysis tools and
  • Ability to travel up to 25- 30% to other sites within the Twelfth Federal Reserve District, and to other Banks in the Federal Reserve System.

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Perhaps they are preparing for this.




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