Tucker Carlson Claims CIA Trying To Frame Him For FARA Violation; Loomer Celebrates
In a bombshell Saturday monologue, conservative commentator Tucker Carlson alleged that the CIA has been monitoring his private text messages as part of an effort to frame him for a crime and trigger a criminal referral to the Department of Justice (DOJ).
“The other day I found out that the CIA is preparing some kind of criminal referral against me, a crime report to the Department of Justice on the basis of a supposed crime I committed. What’s that crime? Well, talking to people in Iran before the war. They read my texts,” Carlson said, adding that the alleged violation under consideration involves the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA), the 1938 law requiring individuals acting on behalf of foreign governments or entities to register with the DOJ and disclose their activities. Carlson emphatically denied any wrongdoing, insisting he is not a foreign agent and remains loyal to the United States.
Carlson emphatically denied any wrongdoing, insisting he is not a foreign agent, has never taken money or direction from any foreign power, and remains fully loyal to the United States. He described the surveillance as politically motivated retaliation against critics of official foreign-policy narratives.
He also said this is not the first timeU.S. intelligence has targeted his private communications – recalling well-known 2021 incident from his Fox News days, when he says the NSA intercepted and leaked his text messages while he was attempting to land an interview with Vladimir Putin. Those messages made their way from US intel to the New York Times in what Carlson called an effort to discredit him and potentially get his show canceled.
When you discover the CIA has been reading your texts in order to frame you for a crime. pic.twitter.com/XgoluHw8EG
The claim comes amid heightened tensions following the United States and Israel’s war against Iran. Carlson framed the surveillance as politically motivated, suggesting intelligence agencies are weaponizing communications with foreign contacts against domestic critics.
The latest from the rumor mill on this is that Trump used Tucker as a useful idiot back-channel to deceive the Iranians into thinking we were cool.
If the CIA knew that he was talking to the Iranians, then President Trump would have known that also, when he invited Tucker into the Oval a few days before the strike.
Which means Trump may have used Tucker to deceive the Iranians about the likelihood of an impending attack https://t.co/TkbjY34js4
The revelation immediately drew fire from pro-Israel / pro-Iran-war activist Laura Loomer, a vocal Trump supporter and longtime critic of Carlson, who is anti-war and anti-Zionist. Loomer, who has repeatedly accused Carlson of pro-Islamic sympathies, being a “virulent Jew hater,” and suggesting he should be held ‘criminally accountable‘ for “every shooting that happens at a Chabad or Synagogue,” took to X to celebrate the news and claim credit.
“If Tucker Qatarlson gets charged for violating FARA and or leaking information to Russia, Saudi Arabia Iran or Qatar, I’m taking credit,” she wrote, adding “Islamic sympathizers always project onto others what they are likely guilty of.”
She says she’s has been “relentless” in lobbying GOP representatives, law enforcement, and the DOJ over Carlson’s alleged FARA violations. “You have no idea how relentless I have been in speaking to GOP reps and even reporting Tucker to law enforcement and the DOJ. I pray my efforts are successful,” Loomer posted. “Sounds like someone is trying to get ahead of a story. Lock him up!”
If Tucker Qatarlson gets charged for violating FARA and or leaking information to Russia, Saudi Arabia Iran or Qatar, I’m taking credit.
Islamic sympathizers always project onto others what they are likely guilty of.
Loomer resurfaced a February 2026 video of Carlson in Saudi Arabia alongside his brother Buckley Carlson and Tucker Carlson Network CEO Neil Patel, suggesting it showed improper foreign influence.
Shortly before that, she mocked Carlson, saying “If I was a foreign agent and doing something I shouldn’t be doing, I too would come up with an elaborate story about how the CIA was out to get me,” adding “Tucker sounds like someone who is about to be exposed for doing something they know they shouldn’t be doing.”
Deep Fission, a California-based nuclear energy startup, started drilling the world’s first underground nuclear borehole March 10 in Kansas, taking a major step forward in building small modular pressurized water reactors one mile below the surface.
The test project is being funded as part of the Trump administration’s plan to breathe new life into the American nuclear sector by investing in new technology.
“It represents the shift from concept to construction and begins the process of demonstrating a fundamentally new approach to nuclear energy deployment,” Liz Muller, CEO and co-founder of Deep Fission, said.
The initial phase will include the sinking of three wells for site characterization and engineering validation.
The first well will be drilled about 6,000 feet below the ground and will be about eight inches in diameter. Workers at the site will be able to gather critical data to inform the company’s final engineering design, safety analysis, and regulatory planning.
The site’s location in the rural community of Parsons, about 130 miles east of Wichita and home to about 10,000 residents, was chosen in December for its dense and impervious shale and limestone, which provide natural containment and radiation shielding.
“By placing reactors one mile underground, the surrounding geology provides billions of tons of passive shielding and natural containment—enhancing safety and security while significantly reducing cost, surface footprint, and visual impact,” the company stated.
The company also plans to complete construction of its first reactor and achieve criticality by July 4 at the Kansas location.
Deep Fission has already signed an agreement with the Great Plains Development Authority to develop a full-scale commercial project at the same site.
The company’s design uses pressurized water reactor technology with deep-borehole drilling techniques from the oil and gas industry and geothermal heat-transfer.
Each gravity reactor is installed one mile underground, where the surrounding geology provides natural shielding and containment, while also reducing the need for above-ground megastructures, according to Deep Fission.
The company has already entered into an agreement to buy low-enriched uranium from Urenco USA for the small water reactors.
“Securing fuel is one of the most important steps for any nuclear project,” said Deep Fission’s CEO Liz Muller. “This agreement with Urenco enables us to move quickly toward commercialization and scaling our technology with high-quality fuel.”
The uranium will be sourced from Urenco’s New Mexico enrichment plant and will be supplied for the demonstration and testing of the first gravity reactor, according to Deep Fission.
“Advanced reactor developers are an important part of the future energy landscape, and we are focused on ensuring a reliable domestic supply of enriched uranium to support growth in this sector,” said John Kirkpatrick, Urenco USA’s managing director.
Beyond the drilling project, the company is also working on a customer pipeline for 12.5 gigawatts of future planned power.
The company secured $80 million in cash for its operations last month.
Hormuz Chokepoint Claims Next Victim: World’s Largest Aluminum Smelter Cuts Capacity
The world’s largest single-site aluminium smelter in the Middle East cut its output by about 20% on Sunday, marking yet another troubling development for the global economy. The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is no longer just an energy story – it’s now spreading into industrial metals. These second- and third-order effects could soon disrupt global supply chains and tighten aluminium availability, thus pressuring prices higher.
Bloomberg reports that Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) began a controlled, safe shutdown of three reduction lines on Sunday to preserve business continuity amid heavily disrupted maritime shipping routes through the Hormuz chokepoint.
This production shutdown accounts for about 19% of Alba’s total output capacity of 1.62 million tons per year, representing roughly 2.2% of global aluminium production. The suspension aims to preserve its inventory of raw materials.
In 2025, Gulf Cooperation Council members produced around 6.16 million tons of aluminium, or about 8.35% of global supply, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI).
Alba’s cutback, along with the risk of broader disruptions to the aluminium market in the Gulf, could drive aluminium prices in the London market even higher.
The latest ship tracking data of the Hormuz chokepoint shows tankers anchored on both sides of the strait’s entry and exit points. Traffic remains muted.
Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi assured the world on Saturday evening that the Hormuz waterway was open to all vessels, except those linked to the US or Israel.
“New Era” Begins In Venezuela As U.S. Flag Is Raised At Embassy For First Time In Years
The United States Embassy in Caracas announced on X early Saturday morning that the U.S. flag was raised for the first time in seven years, stating that “a new era has begun for relations between the United States and Venezuela.”
“On the morning of March 14, 2019, the American flag was lowered for the last time at the United States Embassy in Caracas. This morning, March 14, 2026, at the same hour, my team and I raised the United States flag, exactly seven years after it was removed,” the embassy said, adding, “A new era has begun for relations between the United States and Venezuela. We are staying with Venezuela. – LFD.”
En la mañana del 14 de marzo de 2019, la bandera estadounidense fue arriada por última vez en la Embajada de los Estados Unidos en Caracas. Esta mañana, 14 de marzo de 2026, a la misma hora, mi equipo y yo izamos la bandera de los Estados Unidos—exactamente siete años después de… pic.twitter.com/kTrwnnECdb
— Embajada de los EE.UU., Venezuela (@usembassyve) March 14, 2026
The reopening of the American embassy in Caracas comes a little more than three months after former left-wing President Nicolás Maduro was forcibly removed from power by U.S. Delta Force operators in a daring midnight raid. Shortly afterward, President Trump backed Maduro’s successor, Acting President Delcy Rodríguez.
That “new era” the U.S. embassy describes is one in which American companies are investing billions of dollars in the South American country across the energy and mining sectors.
Reuters previously reported that Chevron and Shell were close to the first major new oil production deals in Venezuela.
Last week, Reuters reported that the U.S. expanded sanctions waivers to support investment in electricity infrastructure and the energy industry, including fertilizer, and to allow U.S. companies to negotiate contracts for future projects within the country.
Venezuela’s economy has been financially crushed by sanctions as well as by profound economic mismanagement under former socialist leader Maduro. Economists estimate that inflation surged by 400% last year.
Across the Caribbean, on Friday, Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel was forced to admit that his administration is in talks with the Trump administration aimed at “finding solutions through dialogue” to longstanding bilateral differences between the two neighboring countries.
The Trump administration is in the process of ridding the Western Hemisphere of socialists and communists who have caused nothing but trouble and have squandered the inheritances of entire nations.
I just spent the afternoon at Figure headquarters in San Jose with Brett Adcock and David Blundin, and I’m still processing what I saw.
We’re not talking about concept robots. We’re talking about fully autonomous humanoid robots running neural networks end-to-end, doing kitchen work, unloading dishwashers, organizing packages – for hours at a time, with no human intervention.
Today? Figure’s robots are doing 67 consecutive hours of autonomous work. One error in 67 hours. That’s not a demo. That’s a product.
And here’s what most people don’t understand: the gap between “doing one task really well” and “doing every task a human can do” is collapsing at exponential speeds.
Let me explain why…
NOTE: Brett has been a past Faculty Member at my Abundance Summit, where leaders like him share insights years before the mainstream catches on. In-person seats for the 2026 Summit next month are nearly sold out. Learn more and apply.
The Death of C++ and the Rise of the Neural Net
When I first visited Figure, they had several hundred thousand lines of C++ code controlling the robots. Handwritten. Expensive. Brittle.
Every new behavior required engineers to anticipate edge cases, write more code, test it, debug it. It was the software equivalent of teaching a toddler to walk by writing an instruction manual.
In the last year, Figure deleted 109,000 lines of C++ code.
All of it. Gone.
What replaced it? A single neural network that controls the entire robot: hands, arms, torso, legs, feet. Full-body coordination. Real-time planning. Dynamic response to unexpected situations.
This is Helix 2, their latest AI model, and it’s a fundamentally different approach to robotics.
Here’s why this matters: neural nets learn from experience, not instructions.
You don’t code a robot to “grab a cup.” You show it thousands of examples of grasping objects—different shapes, weights, materials—and the neural net extracts the underlying patterns. It learns what “grasping” is at a representational level.
And once it understands grasping? It can generalize to objects it’s never seen before.
Brett put it simply: “If you can teleoperate the robot to do a task, you can train the neural net to learn it.”
That’s the unlock. If the hardware is capable—if the motors, sensors, and joints can physically perform the movement—then the AI can learn it from data.
Compare that to traditional robotics, where you’d need to write thousands of lines of code for every single new task. That approach doesn’t scale. Neural nets do.
The implication: Every robot in the fleet learns from every other robot’s experience. When one Figure robot masters folding laundry, every Figure robot on the planet instantly knows how to fold laundry.
Humans don’t work like this. Robots do.
Hardware Built Around the Brain
Most people think you design the robot first, then figure out the AI.
Figure did the opposite.
Brett’s team looked at the neural network architecture they wanted to run and asked: “What hardware do we need to make this work?”
That’s why Figure 3 exists. It’s not an incremental upgrade. It’s a complete redesign built around Helix.
Here’s what changed from Figure 2 to Figure 3:
90% cost reduction in manufacturing
~20 pounds lighter (135 lbs total)
Palm cameras for occluded grasping
Tactile sensors in every fingertip
Passive toe joint for better range of motion
Soft-wrapped body to eliminate pinch points
Onboard inference compute (no cloud dependency)
And critically: designed for data collection at scale.
Because here’s the thing — if you’re betting on neural nets, you’re betting on data. The more diverse, high-quality data you collect, the better the robot generalizes.
Figure built their robot to be a data-gathering machine. Every sensor, every camera, every interaction feeds back into the training loop.
And they’re not using off-the-shelf parts. They manufacture their own actuators, hands, battery systems, embedded compute—everything.
Why? Because the technology readiness of existing robotics components is too low. If a vendor’s motor fails in the field, you’re stuck waiting for them to fix it. If you built it yourself, you iterate overnight.
This is vertical integration at its finest. And it’s the only way to move fast enough to win.
The Manufacturing Ramp: From Thousands to Millions
Walking through Figure’s Baku (manufacturing facility) was surreal.
Four production lines. Capacity for 50,000 robots per year when fully ramped.
But Brett’s not stopping there. He’s already planning the next facility. Tens of thousands. Then hundreds of thousands. Then millions.
And here’s the kicker: Figure will use its own robots to build more robots.
They’re putting humanoids on the production lines this year. Robots assembling robots. Robots testing robots. Robots packaging robots.
Why? Because if you’re trying to scale to a billion units, you can’t rely on human labor. You need an exponential manufacturing curve, and the only way to get there is recursive self-improvement.
Think about it: every improvement Figure makes to the robot’s dexterity, speed, and reliability makes it better at building the next generation of robots.
It’s a flywheel. And once it starts spinning, it’s nearly impossible to stop.
Brett estimates they could ship a billion robots today if the AI were fully general-purpose. The demand is there. The capital markets (via leasing models) can finance it. The constraint is solving general robotics.
And that’s exactly what they’re working on.
General Robotics: The Only Milestone That Matters
Here’s the thing about humanoid robots that most people—and most companies—don’t get:
Teleoperation is not impressive. Open-loop behaviors are not impressive. One-minute demos are not impressive.
What’s impressive is closed-loop, autonomous work in unseen environments over long time horizons.
Let me break that down.
Closed-loop means the robot is continuously sensing its environment and adjusting in real-time. It’s not replaying a pre-programmed sequence. It’s thinking.
Autonomous means no human in the loop. No remote operator in Tennessee. The robot is making decisions on its own.
Unseen environments means you can drop the robot into a random Airbnb or factory floor it’s never visited, and it figures out how to navigate and work there.
Long time horizons means hours, days, weeks of continuous operation. Not 30-second clips stitched together in post-production.
This is what Brett calls “general robotics,” and it’s the only milestone that matters.
If you can’t do this, you don’t have a product. You have a very expensive remote-controlled toy.
Figure’s current benchmark: four to five hours of continuous neural network operation in logistics, kitchen work, and manufacturing tasks.
Their 2026 goal: Drop a robot into an unseen home and have it do useful work for days with minimal human intervention.
Once they hit that, the game is over. Because if the robot can generalize to any home, it can generalize to any environment. Factories. Warehouses. Hospitals. Senior care facilities. Mining operations. Space stations.
The hard part isn’t building a robot that can do one thing well. The hard part is building a robot that can do everything a human can do.
And Figure is closer than anyone else on the planet.
The Timeline: When Will You Have One?
Everyone wants to know: when can I buy a Figure robot for my home?
Brett’s answer: Not yet. And I’m not going to ship slop.
Here’s his roadmap:
2026: Alpha testing in homes. A small number of robots doing long-horizon work (cleaning, organizing, laundry, dishes) in real households. The goal is to measure human interventions – how often does someone need to step in and help?
Right now, industrial deployments see occasional errors. The target for home deployment is orders of magnitude better.
2027-2028: Scaled home pilots. Tens, then hundreds, then thousands of units. Iterative design based on real-world feedback. Safety validation. Privacy validation. Reliability validation.
2028-2029: Mass production and broad availability.
Why so cautious?
Because Brett learned this lesson at Archer (his eVTOL company): you don’t ship safety-critical systems until they’re ready.
A humanoid robot in your home is around your kids, your pets, your elderly parents. If it drops a pot of boiling water, that’s catastrophic. If it steps on your cat, that’s catastrophic. If it gets hacked and streams your private conversations to the internet, that’s catastrophic.
So Figure is taking the time to get it right.
And honestly? I respect the hell out of that.
Because when Figure does ship, they’ll have a decade head start on everyone else in terms of safety track record, reliability data, and customer trust.
That’s a brand moat you can’t buy.
The Business Model: Leasing Humanoids Like Humans
Here’s the beautiful part of Figure’s go-to-market strategy:
They’re leasing robots the same way you lease humans — by the hour.
Think about it. You don’t “buy” an employee. You pay them a salary. You lease their time and capability.
Figure is doing the same thing. You don’t buy a $20,000 robot. You pay ~$300/month to lease one. That’s $10/day. Forty cents an hour.
Compare that to minimum wage ($15-20/hour in most US states). A Figure robot is 50x cheaper and works 24/7 with no breaks, no benefits, no turnover.
And because it’s a lease, Figure retains ownership. They can remotely update the software. They can recall and upgrade units. They can monitor performance and safety in real-time.
It’s the Apple model applied to robotics. And it’s going to print money.
Brett estimates the market for humanoid robots is half of global GDP: roughly $50 trillion annually. Because half of all economic activity is human labor.
And here’s the thing: the demand is already there.
Figure has signed multiple commercial clients. They’re deploying robots into factories, warehouses, and logistics operations this year. These aren’t pilots. These are revenue-generating contracts.
The bottleneck isn’t demand. It’s supply. It’s solving general robotics and scaling manufacturing fast enough to meet the orders.
When that happens? This becomes the largest economy in the world.
What Comes Next: The Age of Abundance
Let me paint the picture of where this is going.
2030: Every household in the developed world has access to a humanoid robot. You lease it for $300/month. It does your laundry, cleans your house, organizes your kitchen, runs errands.
You come home from work and your robot has already meal-prepped dinner based on your biometric data from your wearable. It knows you’re low on magnesium, so it adjusted the recipe.
2035: There are 10 billion humanoid robots on the planet. Five billion in homes. Five billion in commercial and industrial settings.
The cost of goods and services collapses. Why? Because labor is no longer a constraint. Robots mine the materials, manufacture the products, transport them, and deliver them to your door.
You want a custom piece of furniture? A robot designs it, fabricates it, and assembles it in your garage overnight. Cost: materials + energy. Labor: free.
2040: Robots are building robots. Robots are designing robots. Robots are optimizing supply chains, managing logistics, exploring asteroids, constructing orbital habitats.
Humans are freed from drudgery. We do what we’re best at: creating, exploring, connecting, imagining.
This is the age of Abundance.
And it starts in 2026.
Brett Adcock and his team at Figure are building it. Right now. In San Jose.
I’ve seen it. I’ve walked the floors. I’ve watched the robots work.
And I’m telling you: this is real.
The future doesn’t care if you believe in it. It’s coming anyway.
US Navy Surveillance Plane Made Provocative Flight Over Taiwan Strait, Weeks Before Trump-Xi Summit
With the world’s attention hyper-focused on fast-paced events in Iran and the effectively shuttered vital oil transit hub, the Hormuz Strait, some significant things were also happening around Taiwan this past week.
The US military confirmed that a P-8A Poseidon anti-submarine patrol aircraft transited the Taiwan Strait on Wednesday, a move that predictably drew Beijing’s attention.
China said it monitored the US Navy aircraft as it passed through the narrow waterway separating Taiwan from mainland China.
“By operating within the Taiwan Strait in accordance with international law, the United States upholds the navigational rights and freedoms of all nations,” the US 7th Fleet said in a statement, adding the transit “demonstrates the United States’ commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific.”
The latest fly-through comes just weeks before President Donald Trump is scheduled to travel to Beijing for talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping aimed at hammering out a new trade agreement.
But the diplomatic backdrop is already showing strain, with regional media including The Japan Times saying that Beijing has grown irritated with Washington for failing to engage in serious advance planning ahead of the summit.
China is also without doubt angered as its Iranian oil imports are in extreme jeopardy due to Trump’s Iran war, and recent bombing of Kharg Island export depot.
Against that backdrop, the Taiwan Strait patrol looks like a familiar piece of strategic signaling – a reminder to East Asian allies that even as Washington pours military resources into the Middle East, it still intends to project power in the Indo-Pacific.
Iranian oil shipments to China continue for a reason. With a Xi-Trump summit approaching, Washington has incentives to avoid steps that would directly pressure Chinese energy imports. Strategic stability with Beijing is clearly a priority right now. https://t.co/703UEnOmIR
And yet if China were to invade Taiwan tomorrow, there’s likely not much Washington could do about it at a moment it is concentrating its firepower and resources on regime change in Iran, alongside its Israeli ally.
A Chinese national has pleaded guilty to laundering more than $2 million from a prostitution enterprise run through spa businesses in New York’s capital region, the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Northern District of New York announced on March 11.
Xia Ming, 41, of Flushing, New York, pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit money laundering on March 3. According to his plea agreement, Xia operated a prostitution enterprise from 2019 to 2025.
The enterprise consisted of “illicit massage businesses” disguised as “legitimate spas,” with employees providing “commercial sex services,” according to the court document. The establishment included Central Spa, Body and Skin Spa, Zen Body Works, Sisters Body Works, Relaxation Spa, and Physical Wellness Spa.
“Mr. Xia did not merely run an illegal business, he built a multimillion-dollar enterprise on the commodification of women, treating them as instruments for financial gain while laundering the proceeds to enrich himself through cash and real estate,” John A. Sarcone III, first assistant U.S. attorney for the Northern District of New York, said in a statement on Wednesday.
“Let this guilty plea serve as a clear warning: those who exploit others for personal profit and attempt to hide their gains will be identified, prosecuted, and stripped of their ill-gotten assets.”
Xia advertised his businesses online, transported his employees between locations, and traveled to each spa to collect money, according to the court document.
The spas brought in more than $2 million in proceeds, prosecutors said, which Xia admitted laundering through third parties before using the money to purchase properties.
The court documents list three properties in Albany, New York, two in Flushing, Queens, and one in Endwell, New York.
As part of his plea, Xi agreed to forfeit $198,000 in cash that was seized by law enforcement, along with the six properties—two commercial properties and four residences.
“By turning neighborhood spas into brothels and washing millions in criminal proceeds through our communities, Ming Xia treated the Capital Region as his personal cash register,” Erin Keegan, special agent in charge of Homeland Security Investigations (HSI), said in a statement on Wednesday.
“His scheme exploited vulnerable workers, poisoned legitimate commerce, and robbed residents of the basic expectation that local businesses are safe and lawful.
“This guilty plea sends a clear message: HSI and our invaluable Homeland Security Task Force partners will strip criminals of their profits, seize their assets, and shut down any operation that tries to hide behind a respectable storefront.”
Xia, who was indicted in February 2025, is scheduled to be sentenced on July 1, according to the Attorney’s office. Xia faces up to 20 years in prison, up to three years of supervised release, and a $500,000 maximum fine.
The Epoch Times contacted Xia’s lawyer for comments, but didn’t receive a response by publication time.
In a separate case, four Chinese nationals living in Flushing were indicted in late January for allegedly running brothels disguised as massage spas located in Erie, Pennsylvania. The defendants were indicted on charges of conspiracy, human trafficking, immigration violations, and money laundering.
It’s the magic number, the line that’s not supposed to be crossed; when a nation’s public debt finally exceeds its GDP. Historically speaking, it’s not a sign of doom like many economists suggest. Numerous countries have sustained for decades with a ratio of well over 100% and many other factors have to be considered before it’s officially time to panic. Of course, there are some cautionary tales.
Greece and Argentina are two examples. A number of developing countries shave been hit with precipitous decline after they hit the 100% mark. In the case of the US, having access to the world reserve currency changes the dynamic dramatically. Debt does not act like debt in an environment where global trade and investment is mostly is priced in dollars and you control the ability to print those dollars at will.
That said, the recent historic milestone has many people suddenly worried about the state of the US system and the precarious nature of the geopolitical landscape going into the future.
Gross national debt for the US crossed the 100% mark back in 2012. The official public debt touched 101% last month. This factor combined with the inflation of the Biden era and the geopolitical uncertainty of the Trump era has the media talking out loud about the kind of crisis we alternative economists have been warning about for quite some time.
It’s certainly an startling change; alternative economists are no longer the voice in the wilderness. But let’s consider for a moment WHY the mainstream has decided to adopt a crisis posture after so many years of ignoring the obvious.
It’s Okay To Talk About A Crash If It Can Be Blamed On Trump
The corporate media has a clear economic bias; optics must be good for establishment endorsed leaders and optics must remain bad for any political leaders on the naughty list. Regardless of what a person might think of Trump’s presidency so far, it’s impossible to ignore the fact that the media spins his every move into a negative, even when he succeeds beyond expectations.
The tariffs are a perfect example – After Trump announced his aggressive strategy to counter outsourcing, the media and Democrats asserted that an unprecedented inflationary disaster was inevitable. This never happened.
They claimed consumers would have to eat the cost of the trade taxes on international corporations. This didn’t happen either. In reality, the CPI barely budged in response to tariffs. Why? Because companies are absorbing the higher costs (as I and some other economists predicted).
The retail markups on goods made overseas are substantial. International conglomerates have plenty of room to take the hit while avoiding raising prices on the shelf. Trump knows this, and anyone who has studied export markets knows this. Yet, the demonization campaign against tariffs was absolutely frantic.
This is just one example of a false threat; an imagined crisis fabricated for the sake of political interests rather than the for sake of protecting the American people. It’s important to be able to discern between very real economic dangers and false narratives designed to target and scapegoat.
Suddenly The Mainstream Is Noticing US Debt
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), a Washington-based fiscal watchdog, released a sweeping new report this week warning that policymakers are “woefully underprepared” to handle the next recession or financial shock.
They assert that the national debt crossing the 100% benchmark is one signal among many that the US cannot handle a surprise destabilization event, though they note that interest payments on that debt are the greater concern. By 2036, according to Congressional Budget Office projections, debt is on track to reach 120% of GDP with interest swallowing $0.26 of every dollar the government takes in.
The report also warned about rising inflation dangers associated with monetary policy. This falls in line with reports of tensions between Trump and the Federal Reserve, but corporate news sources are painting the Fed as a kind of “wayward institution” stuck in the middle of a bad situation they have nothing to do with. In reality, the Fed is the cause of most of our nation’s debt and inflation problems; they enable the money printing bonanza and they are unaccountable to the American public.
Fortune Magazine has tied threats of inflation and debt accumulation to the Iran war, and Bloomberg has published articles lamenting an inevitable “wave of global inflation” due to the conflict. I find this fascinating given the media’s refusal to accept that inflation existed after the 2020 election. Bloomberg even asserted that rising inflation was a “mirage” and Fortune reprinted those claims.
The question is not what Trump will do in the face of a crisis event; rather, we must ask what the Fed will do? Will they raise rates again to mitigate inflationary pressure, or will they turn the money printers back on to stave off any potential deflationary consequences. Given their track record, it is likely the Fed will inflate, but high interest rates at this time could also be devastating.
With the GOP ostensibly in control of the government the bankers might be able to divert all blame onto conservatives policies, and to me this is the real concern. Will the Fed pull the plug on the economy simply because they have a convenient scapegoat?
Geopolitical Black Swan Or Minor Blip On The Radar?
Over the past couple years I have warned extensively about war with Iran, specifically in relation to the Strait of Hormuz and the 20% of global oil shipments that travel through it every year. The war itself is superfluous; I have little doubt that the US can and will destroy the majority of Iranian military infrastructure within a couple months. The greater danger is how easy it will be for insurgent elements to keep the strait closed using simple guerrilla tactics.
It doesn’t take much to block up the narrow strait and threaten global oil prices. Securing it would have to be a top priority of the Trump Administration, which seems to be the case given Trump’s latest statements. Troops on the ground are unavoidable to ensure the Hormuz remains clear, and this is going to ruffle a lot of feathers.
The strait is the only legitimate geopolitical leverage Iran has against the US, but not in the way many people assume. It is true that IF the Hormuz remains contested for more than a couple months, the economic effects could cascade into the markets and cause serious instability. However, this instability will initially affect the East, not the West.
Only 7% of US oil imports and 6% of European oil imports pass through the Hormuz. In comparison around 50% of China’s oil imports and 40% of India’s imports rely on the strait. The hardest hit, however, will be Japan, with over 70% of their oil imports relying on ships passing through the Hormuz. And, as most economists know, Japan’s markets are deeply intertwined with US markets through the Yen carry trade.
In Japan, ongoing oil-driven inflation could pressure the Bank of Japan to tighten policy through rate hikes or reduced bond buying. This narrows the carry trade differential, eroding carry profits and potentially triggering an unwind. In other words, it will no longer be cheap for investors to borrow Yen at near zero rates and then buy assets in the US.
Prices would have to rise considerably in order to trigger such a cascade, though. It’s important to note that the panic over an impending energy crisis is currently based on speculation and not legitimate shortages.
When an actual crisis occurs, we’ll know it. When shale oil drillers in the US ramp up production because they KNOW the high prices can sustain them, then it’s time to worry. When we see sustained weekly gas price spikes of 10%-20%, then it’s time to worry. If foreign countries initiate a large scale dump of the dollar as the petro currency, then it’s time to worry.
The war itself would have to carry on for many months to create these conditions and I’m not convinced yet that this will be the case. The expectation among many on the political left (and among libertarians) is that the war in Iran will carry on for years because that’s what happened in Iraq and Afghanistan.
I have to ask this question, though: Has anyone considered the possibility that those wars lasted for decades because they were DESIGNED to go on for decades? Who decided the objectives? Who decided the parameters for success? Who decided that occupation was necessary? It was establishment Neo-cons and Democrats that created the necessity of occupation out of thin air. “Defeating the enemy” became a secondary concern.
The length of the Iran war will not be decided by the current Iranian regime, it will be decided by Trump. If the only objective is to destroy Iran’s ability to project military power and to secure the Hormuz (and avoid occupation of the greater territory), then the war will be short and there will be no energy crisis.
This is not my endorsement of the war in general, just the facts. There are much bigger threats to the US economy and the global economy than Iran right now.
The Real Danger
Iran has the potential to become a “linchpin” disaster, but the conditions are not right for one yet. For now, I continue to believe that the most significant danger to the global economy and the US economy is still the European oligarchy and their push for war with Russia over Ukraine. Any move by the Europeans to deploy troops to the region could result in a large scale war that would dwarf the events in Iran and completely derail already fragile economic structures.
If you’re worried about global Armageddon, look to Ukraine, not Iran.
The largest secondary hazard is domestic. NGO funded leftist riots, terror attacks and movements to burn the country to the ground in the name of Marxist “deconstruction” are more perilous to the US than most of the populace understands. Add to this the increasing number of Islamic terror attacks and we’ve got a recipe for civil breakdown. Internal insurgencies would have to be handled by the armed citizenry rather than sitting around and relying on the government to do everything.
Then you have the Federal Reserve and the Catch-22 policy conundrum. The central bankers could, theoretically, collapse the US economy at any given moment using the sudden whiplash of a large rate hike or a large stimulus program. The financial system would not be able to adapt this time. With Trump in office I would argue that the bank is MORE likely to do this.
There is a fine line between vigilance and hysteria. We have to be careful not to blackpill ourselves into oblivion over events like tariffs or the war in Iran. That said, there are indeed very real catalysts brewing within geopolitics and on the home front. At bottom, there are people out there that desperately WANT the US to collapse.
For them, every crisis is an opportunity to push their agenda forward whether those crises are engineered or not. By extension, some threats are fabricated and exaggerated to conjure up a public frenzy, manipulate popular opinion and destroy the US from within. Knowing what is real and what is illusion is essential to our nation’s survival.
Over 3 Million Iranians Forcibly Displaced Under US-Israeli Bombardment
More than 3 million Iranians have been displaced by the ongoing US-Israeli war against the Islamic Republic, according to the main UN refugee agency. Ayaki Ito, director of the Division of Emergency and Program Support at the UN refugee agency, has described that the US-Israeli attack has already triggered mass internal displacement across Iran.
“Between 600,000 and 1 million Iranian households are now temporarily displaced inside Iran as a result of the ongoing conflict, according to preliminary assessments, representing up to 3.2 million people,” Ito said.
The dark and twisted irony in all of this is that Washington and Tel Aviv have claimed they want to “help” the Iranian people go “free“… by bombing them and destroying their civic infrastructure, apparently.
Most of those fleeing are leaving Tehran and other major cities as the air war intensifies and the crisis accelerates.
Though there were Friday scenes of large crowds of Iranian in Tehran streets and city squares defiantly protesting the US attacks – even as bombs fell around them – most Iranians are likely trying a way to flee to the countryside, or stay away from big cities in the homes of relatives.
The number of forcibly displaced people “is likely to continue rising as hostilities persist, marking a worrying escalation in humanitarian needs,” the UN official added.
Iran also currently plays host to the largest population of refugees from Afghanistan (with Pakistan also hosting a huge number), in the millions of people. The war in Iran is said to be hitting Afghans hard, as resources must be rushed elsewhere as the bombs fall.
Meanwhile, the death toll from the US-Israeli bombing campaign continues to climb. The official death count is approaching 1500 people, including 165 children killed in a reportedly US double-tap strike on a girls’ school.
The conflict is also fueling a parallel refugee crisis across the region, which could also potentially impact some Gulf regions. For example, Bahrain is experiencing some degree of destabilization as its huge Shia population rises up against the Sunni monarchy, and clashes with police have ensued.
In Lebanon, relentless Israeli strikes have displaced almost 15% of the country’s population, more than 800,000 people, monitors have said.
Mass evacuation orders issued by Israel now cover all of southern Lebanon and large sections of the capital, Beirut, forcing hundreds of thousands to flee as the war spreads across the Middle East.
Airlines, including Qantas, SAS, and Air New Zealand, have already announced airfare increases.
Surging jet fuel prices and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are squeezing airline operations.
Prolonged conflict could weaken travel demand and deepen pressure on global airline stocks.
As the war in Iran spills over into other parts of the Middle East, energy experts expect the price of several oil and gas products to soar over the coming months, driven by shortages. This will likely affect flight prices, with several airlines warning of anticipated price hikes. It could lead to a travel slump, as consumers wait for prices to fall again.
Australia’s Qantas Airways, Scandinavia’s SAS, and Air New Zealand are three of the airlines to have already announced airfare hikes in response to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The airlines cited the abrupt spike in the cost of fuel driven by the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran as the reason for the move.
Jet fuel prices rose from between $85 to $90 a barrel before the attack on Iran to as much as $150 to $200 a barrel this week. This has led several airlines to reconsider their financial outlooks for 2026, as the uncertainty makes it impossible to predict where the price of fossil fuels will go in the coming months.
The war in Iran has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key trade corridor connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. The strait is considered a chokepoint, as there are few alternative options for energy transportation, beyond some limited pipeline networks in the region. The dramatic reduction in the transport of fossil fuels through the strait, which is said to have created the biggest oil supply disruption in history, has driven oil and gas prices up sharply in recent weeks.
An SAS spokesperson told Reuters, “Increases of this magnitude make it necessary to react in order to maintain stable and reliable operations,” adding that the airline has implemented a “temporary price adjustment.”
Some airlines will be more affected than others by the increase in jet fuel prices. For example, several Asian and European airlines, such as Lufthansa and Ryanair, have oil hedging in place, meaning that a part of their fuel supplies is maintained at a fixed rate. However, some companies are concerned that even the hedged fuel reserves may be at risk.
Finnair hedged more than 80 percent of its first-quarter fuel purchases and now worries that the fuel may no longer be available if the conflict continues. Some major jet fuel producers, such as Kuwait, have already been forced to reduce production and export quantities in recent weeks.
Another challenge that is driving airfares up is the closure of several airspaces because of the ongoing conflict, which has affected several Asia-Europe routes. Some airlines have been forced to open alternative flight routes for passengers to reach their destinations. Pilots have also been forced to reroute to avoid the Middle East conflict, while capacity on popular routes has rapidly increased.
“Absent near-term relief, airlines around the world could be forced to ground thousands of aircraft while some of the industry’s financially weakest carriers could halt operations,” Deutsche analysts were reported to have said in a note to clients.
Meanwhile, some companies, such as British Airways, are confident that they can maintain their current ticket prices in the near-term until more is known about the mid- to long-term impact of the conflict. However, British Airways has cut certain routes due to continuing uncertainty, such as its seasonal flights to Abu Dhabi.
The uncertainty means that several airlines, across Asia, Europe, and North America, are seeing their shares plummet. Lorraine Tan, the director of equity research, Asia at Morningstar, stated, “The issue for the airlines now is that travel demand may be curtailed as costs become prohibitive for leisure travellers and as some companies start to limit business travel due to the uncertain outlook.”
On Monday, during a party conference in Florida, U.S. President Trump announced, “We have already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough,” in reference to the war in Iran. Trump says. The president added, “We go forward more determined to achieve ultimate victory that will end this long-running danger once and for all.” Trump’s speech, as well as mixed messages from the president to several media outlets, have caused greater uncertainty, as there is no clear timeline for the conflict or an idea about when it might end.
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has already caused significant energy supply chain disruptions, which have driven oil and gas prices up. Meanwhile, uncertainties about when the U.S.-Israeli intervention in Iran will come to an end have led stocks across a range of industries to fall sharply. While many airlines attempt to weather the storm, it is likely that we will see significant price increases in airfares in the coming months.
