Tag: finance

US equity futures are tumbling in the pre-market following a weak ADP employment report and Q1 GDP contraction (driven by a tariff-front-running surge in imports).

In the last month or two, we have been told that President Trump is not focused on the stock market, rejecting the idea of a ‘Trump Put’ (especially when it came to the decision to ‘pause’ reciprocal tariffs this month).

However this morning, following the bad data and ugly equity drop, Trump posted on TruthSocial that “This is Biden’s Stock Market, not Trump’s.”

I didn’t take over until January 20th. 

Tariffs will soon start kicking in, and companies are starting to move into the USA in record numbers. 

Our Country will boom, but we have to get rid of the Biden “Overhang.” 

This will take a while, has NOTHING TO DO WITH TARIFFS, only that he left us with bad numbers, but when the boom begins, it will be like no other.

BE PATIENT!!!

The surge in imports – which dragged down GDP – is due to the tariff decisions, there is no question.

But also bear in mind that this is not a ‘classic recessionary slowdown’ in the economy, it is a front-running surge in imports ‘ahead’ of the tariffs and shrinking government spending.

The former is a temporary impact, the latter is what America voted for!!

Interestingly, rate-cut odds are rising notably after the data…

Which makes us wonder if ‘the market’ is now switching to search for the ‘Fed Put’, not the ‘Trump Put’.

 

There were good and bad news in today’s GDP report.

Starting with the bad news, Q1 GDP printed -0.3%, worse than the -0.2% expected and the first negative print since Q1 2022 when the economy was in a recession but was subsequently revised out of it

The good news is that the drop was actually supposed to be much worse (recall the Atlanta Fed’s latest GDP estimate was -2.7%, or -1.5% excluding record gold imports). Indeed, if one looks at the components of today’s GDP print one finds that the number was actually unexpectedly strong, if one strips out the two negative components, net trade and government.

As shown in the chart below, Q1 GDP comprised of the following components:

• Personal Consumption 1.21%, down from 2.70%, but translating into an annualized Personal Consumption print of 1.8%, much higher than the 1.2% expected
• Fixed investment jumped to 1.34%, up from -0.2% and the highest since Q2 2023 as the BEA finally starts tracking data center investment correctly
• Change in private inventories surged 2.25%, as expected, on the pre-tariff restocking; this number was up from a -0.84% drop last quarter and is expected to reverse in coming quarters as inventories are sold off.
• Government spending was a negative -0.25%, the first negative print for Joe Biden’s favorite “plug” to push GDP higher since 2022.
• Finally, and most importantly, net trade (exports less imports) was a whopping 4.830% hit to the final GDP number, a 5% swing from the +0.26% contribution in Q4. This was entirely the result of soaring imports (of which gold was about half) in Q1 which hit GDP by a near record 5.03%. Just like inventories, this number will now reverse in coming quarters as tariff frontrunning ends and is reversed.

And visually:

Taking a closer look at the import contribution to GDP, which was the biggest swing factor, one can see that at 5.03%, this was the 2nd highest on record with just the outlier covid shock bigger. In other words, absent economic shock, this was a record quarterly print.

In its commentary, the BEA confirmed as much, writing that “the decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending. These movements were partly offset by increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports.”

Compared to the fourth quarter, the downturn in real GDP in the first quarter reflected an upturn in imports, a deceleration in consumer spending, and a downturn in government spending that were partly offset by upturns in investment and exports.

Turning to inflation, the BEA reported that the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.4 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 3.6 percent, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 3.5 percent, compared with an increase of 2.6 percent.

Putting these in context, GDP Price index of 3.7% came in hotter than the 3.1% expected, while the core PCE of 3.5% was also hotter than the 3.1%.

Bottom line, the GDP number was much stronger than expected, in fact it was a whopping 2.4% higher than the now laughable AtlantaFed GDP forecast, and if anything this positions the Trump admin for a surprise bounce in Q2 and/or Q3 when all the outlier prints from Q1 are reversed.

After several false starts and timeline projections which didn’t pan out, Ukraine is imminently ready to sign the mineral resources deal with the US, Bloomberg has quoted a source close to negotiations as saying.

“The draft agreement, which envisages creating a joint fund to manage Ukraine’s investment projects, has been finalized and may be signed as soon as Wednesday, the person said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the talks are private,” the report says, noting that Ukrainian Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko is en route Washington for the signing.

A source in Ukrainian President Zelensky’s office has separately told the Kyiv Independent that it will be signed by Wednesday evening. A draft document says the deal seeks to create conditions to “increase investment in mining, energy, and related technology in Ukraine.”

Crucially,  the agreement excludes any conditions which say it is related to Ukraine’s debt for prior US military or financial assistance. Kiev and many of its European allies had balked at that prior controversial proposal, which had centered on Trump’s insistence that Ukraine pay back the hundreds of billions provided by the American taxpayer after over three years of war.

Bloomberg details, “In another breakthrough, the US has agreed that only future military assistance it may provide to Ukraine following the signing of the deal would count toward its contribution to the fund, according to the document.”

Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal first unveiled Sunday that the Trump administration had dropped this requirement of paying back past debt.

The document “strengthens the strategic partnership between the Parties for the long-term reconstruction and modernization of Ukraine, in response to the large-scale destruction caused by Russia’s full-scale invasion” – but many specifics regarding rare earth mineral access remain unclear as of yet.

Washington and Kiev have until now spent months dancing around a deal that would allow the US access to Ukraine’s mineral deposits, which was originally proposed by Zelensky as part of his five-point “Victory Plan” unveiled last October to secure US support. 

Many of Kiev’s supporters called it insultingly lopsided, and tantamount to a resource grab by the US, with Ukrainian lawmakers at one point calling an earlier revision to the mineral agreement a “horror” that offered no security guarantees from Washington.

Trump was really ramping up the pressure personally on Zelensky just last week…

An initial version of the deal sought to grant the Untied States access to all existing and future mineral deposits across Ukraine, along with oil and gas throughout the country. It would still have to be ratified by Ukrainian parliament after it is signed, theoretically at least and according to Ukrainian law.

While jobless claims refuse to show even a glimmer of hope to the doomsaying ‘recession is imminent and it’s all because of Trump’ narrative, this morning’s ADP gives us a potential glimpse at what Friday’s ‘most important payrolls print ever’ will offer.

…and the picture is not pretty at all…

According to ADP, the US economy added just 62k jobs in April – the lowest since July 2024’s dip

Source: Bloomberg

Education and health services, information, and professional and business services lost jobs, while hiring in other sectors was moderate.

“Unease is the word of the day,” says Nela Richardson Chief Economist.

“ADP Employers are trying to reconcile policy and consumer uncertainty with a run of mostly positive economic data. It can be difficult to make hiring decisions in such an environment.”

Goods-Producing jobs outperformed Service-Providing jobs…

There is more bad news –

Pay for job-stayers rose 4.5 percent in April from a year earlier, a slight deceleration from March. 

Year-over-year pay gains for job-changers accelerated, rising from 6.7 percent in March to 6.9 percent in April – the highest since Dec 2024.

The question is – will this dreadful jobs print prompt The Fed to come back to the table (or is the wage re-acceleration enough to keep them away)?

The market is moving that way – pricing in four cuts for 2025 now.

US equity futures slipped ahead of key GDP and PCE data. As of 8:00am, S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% while Nasdaq 100 contracts lose 0.5%, with Mag 7 names mostly lower (NVDA -1.4%, TSLA -1.1% and META -0.6%) as weak earnings weighed on risk sentiment after Super Micro plunged 16% ahead of Microsoft and Meta numbers later on Wednesday. Bond yields are lower by 1bps to 4.15% while the USD is higher. Overnight, China’s factory PMI slipped into the worst contraction since December 2023 (49 vs 49.7 cons) due to the negative impact of higher US tariffs, while Trump at a rally in Michigan renewed his criticism of Powell, noting he is “not really doing a good job” and that he knows more about interest rates. This morning, Euro Area flash CPI has been mixed, while Q1 GDP data was slightly firmer than expected at 1.2% YoY (vs 1.1% cons). Commodities are mixed: oil is 1.8% lower; previous metals are lower, while base metals are mostly higher. After yesterday’s close, earnings were modestly negative. Particularly, SBUX fell 6.7% on missed earnings amid margin pressure and top-line growth. BKNG commented that there is a moderation in inbound travel into the US, but so far the global leisure travel demand has been stable. Looking ahead today, we have ADP employment, Q1 GDP, PCE and employment cost index. There are no Fed speakers scheduled given blackout ahead of May’s FOMC meeting.

In premarket trading the Mag7 stocks were mostly lower (Alphabet -0.1%, Amazon -0.6%, Apple -0.4%, Meta Platforms -0.9%, Microsoft +0.1%, Nvidia -2%, Tesla -1.3%). First Solar tumbled 12% after the maker of electricity-producing solar modules cut earnings guidance for this year due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Norwegian Cruise Line dropped 7% after warning that cruise demand, which has long defied worrying travel trends, is beginning to weaken.  Snap plunged 13% after the company declined to issue a sales forecast for the current period, saying it is navigating macroeconomic “headwinds” for its advertising business. Starbucks slumped 8% after weaker-than-expected results in the latest quarter amped up pressure for the company’s new management to deliver. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• BridgeBio Pharma (BBIO) rallies 9% after the drugmaker reported sales of its recently approved heart drug, Attruby, that crushed expectations.
• Etsy (ETSY) rises 1% after the online marketplace for crafts reported revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Freshworks Inc. (FRSH) climbs 9% after the software-as-a-service company boosted its profit and revenue outlook for the year.
• Garmin (GRMN) falls 6% after the maker of GPS-enabled products posted first-quarter results and provided a year forecast.
• Oddity Tech (ODD) jumps 17% after the direct-to-consumer beauty and wellness company boosted its net revenue guidance for the full year to a level above Wall Street expectations.
• Qorvo (QRVO) climbs 8% after the Apple supplier reported adjusted 4Q earnings that topped estimates.
• Regulus Therapeutics (RGLS) shares are halted after the company entered into an agreement to be acquired by Novartis AG.
• Seagate (STX) gains 7% after the computer hardware and storage company reported third-quarter earnings and revenue that beat the average analyst estimate
• Stride Inc. (LRN) climbs 3% after the online education company boosted its revenue forecast for the full year. Fiscal third-quarter revenue increased 18%.
• Super Micro Computer (SMCI) tumbles 16% after giving preliminary results that fell well short of analysts’ estimates, a sign its comeback plan has been slow to gain traction.
• Tenable (TENB) plunges 17% after the cybersecurity company cut its full-year guidance, with analysts noting lower visibility ahead for the stock due to US federal spending uncertainties.
• Wabash National (WNC) falls 13% after the semi-trailer manufacturing company cut its revenue guidance for the full year.

Investors have been cautiously optimistic, with the Nasdaq 100 close to erasing all of its losses this month, after tariff U-turns and speculation the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to prevent a recession.  

“Perhaps we are past peak uncertainty,” Kim Crawford, global rates portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, told Bloomberg TV. “The administration has a more conciliatory tone on tariffs and to an extent as well, Fed independence.” Benchmark 10-year Treasuries steadied after six days of gains, with the yield at 4.16%. Gold dropped.

Four of the so-called Magnificent Seven — Microsoft, Apple Inc., Meta and Amazon.com Inc. — are reporting earnings this week. Analysts expect the group — which also includes Google-parent Alphabet Inc., Tesla Inc. and Nvidia Corp. — to deliver an average of 15% profit growth in 2025, a forecast that’s barely budged since the start of March despite the flareup in trade tensions.

“Even if you take out the tariff story outcome I think there is an issue for Big Tech and the market will probably start to refocus on that when we get this earnings season,” Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, told Bloomberg TV. “We still have the issue of the massive amount of capex being spent on Big Tech, they’re overspending on this AI story.”

Economic barometers of US economic health are also due with inflation and GDP data Wednesday that will give a snapshot of activity just before President Donald Trump unleashed country-specific levies on April 2. US real GDP growth likely cooled to a standstill in the first quarter amid disruptions from policy shifts, according to Bloomberg Economics.

Veteran emerging-markets investor Mark Mobius said he’s keeping 95% of his funds’ holdings in cash as he waits out the trade-related uncertainty. Hedge funds are reluctant to make major bets amid the turmoil, with the only significant shift in positioning in April being increased bets against US stocks, Bloomberg reported.

In the latest pivot in Trump’s trade strategy, the US president signed an executive order easing the impact of his auto tariffs, preventing duties on foreign-made vehicles from stacking on top of other levies and lessening charges on parts from overseas used to make vehicles in the US. The news supported sentiment toward European auto stocks Wednesday, with Mercedes-Benz Group AG and Stellantis NV rising even after withdrawing their outlooks for this year, citing the uncertainty of trade barriers. 

In a rally celebrating his first 100 days in office, Trump defended his tariff policies as he marked his 100th day in office. He also renewed criticism of Fed Chair Powell, saying he is “not really doing a good job.”

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rises for a seventh consecutive session, albeit only slightly, as disappointing earnings keep a lid on gains. Travel & leisure stocks are the worst performers. Energy and bank stocks also underperform with notable declines in TotalEnergies and Credit Agricole after their respective updates. Here are some of the biggest movers on Wednesday:

• Societe Generale shares advanced 5.7% after the French lender beat estimates as equities trading hit a record and it booked a gain on disposals.
• DSV shares rise as much as 11% after the Danish logistics firm gave a reassuring set of results, with analysts highlighting the synergies it set out from its DB Schenker deal.
• Schindler shares gain as much as 8.2% after the Swiss elevator and escalator maker reported impressive 1Q results with a dynamic order intake and no change in guidance despite US tariffs.
• Stellantis shares rise as much as 4.2% in Milan after the carmaker released a trading update which Bernstein said included some positives, with pricing ahead of expectations in all key regions.
• VW shares rise as much as 1.4% after the German carmaker reiterated its full-year guidance, a move JPMorgan called a positive signal.
• Deutsche Post shares rise as much as 4.1% after the delivery firm’s Ebit came in higher than expected in the first quarter, driven by its Express and Post & Parcel divisions and aided by cost-cutting.
• Aixtron shares climb as much as 14% after the German chip-tool company’s first-quarter results showed better-than-expected revenue, order levels and positive free cash flow, according to Warburg.
• Remy shares rise as much as 5.7% as analysts highlighted encouraging signs in the Cognac maker’s earnings, including an improvement in its US market as well as a better outlook for 2026.
• UMG climbs as much as 7.1% as subscription growth helps to deliver first-quarter results above expectations.
• Befesa shares rise as much as 13% after the German recycling company’s full-year earnings guidance surprised to the upside.
• AMS-Osram shares soar 17%, with ZKB analysts saying the Swiss chipmaker reported a good start to the year due to strong performance in its semiconductor business.
• Credit Agricole fell as much as 4.5% as higher-than-expected costs and a tax bill weighed on profit.
• TotalEnergies shares fall as much as 4.3% after the French energy company reported results that were in line with expectations, but also an increase in net debt.
• Mercedes shares drop as much as 2.8% after the carmaker said tariff volatility is too high to give a reliable outlook.
• Evolution shares drop as much as 18%. The gambling operator reported a miss on revenue and Ebitda in the first quarter, which management attributes to actions including ring-fencing regulated markets in Europe and countermeasures to cyberattacks in Asia.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose, on track for a fourth-straight day of gains, as investors were encouraged by a continued rally on Wall Street and optimism over potential trade deals with the US. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 0.7%. Sony was among the biggest boosts after Bloomberg reported it is considering spinning off its semiconductor unit, while AIA climbed on strong quarterly results. The regional benchmark is poised to close April more than 2% higher, wiping out a steep intra-month loss sparked by US tariffs. The market has been looking toward various concessions from Washington as well as individual nations’ negotiations with the US. President Donald Trump on Tuesday signed an executive order easing the impact of his auto tariffs, while news emerged of discussions with South Korea and Australia. China’s manufacturing activity in April saw its worst contraction since December 2023, exposing early signs of weakness in Asia’s biggest economy from the trade war with the US. Shares of Chinese banks were among the biggest drags on equity benchmarks in Hong Kong and mainland China after weak earnings. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed. The Aussie dollar outperforms rising 0.2% against the greenback after core inflation rose more than expected. AUD/USD rose as much as 0.5% to 0.6418 before paring the move; the nation’s core inflation in the first quarter beat estimates, damping expectations of rapid rate cuts. The pound and the yen were among the worst performers, down 0.3% and 0.4% against the dollar respectively.

In rates, treasuries mixed with the long-end outperforming where yields are down around 2bp on the day, supported by wider gains seen across the long-end of Germany and UK bonds after a flurry of European economic data. Ahead of today’s quarterly refunding announcement, the 10-year US yield are down 1bps to 4.16%. US yields slightly cheaper across the front-end while richer in the long-end of the curve, flattening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by 1.8bp and 2.5bp on the day; US 10-year yields trade down to around 4.16%, richer by 1bp on the day with bunds and gilts outperforming by 2bp and 2.5bp in the sector. European government bonds gain with little reaction shown to a flurry of economic data releases, including a beat for euro-area first quarter GDP. European government bonds rose; German yields were up to 4bps lower across the curve, with gilts mirroring that move; UK 10-year yield down 4bps to 4.40%

In commodities, oil prices decline, with WTI falling 1% to $59.80 a barrel. Spot gold falls $36 to around $3,280/oz. Bitcoin is steady near $94,800. 

US economic calendar includes April ADP employment change (8:15am), 1Q advanced GDP (8:30am), April MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am), March personal income/spending, PCE price index, pending home sales (10am). Fed’s external communications blackout ahead of the May 7 FOMC meeting

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.2%
• Russell 2000 mini little changed
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.2%
• DAX +0.5%, CAC 40 +0.4%
• 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.16%
• VIX +0.3 points at 24.48
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1222.44
• euro -0.1% at $1.1371
• WTI crude -1.3% at $59.63/barrel

Top Overnight News

• US President Trump said he achieved the 100 most successful days for a president in US history, while he noted a lot of auto jobs and companies are coming in and we’re restoring the rule of law and ending the inflation nightmare. Trump renewed his criticism of Jerome Powell, saying the Fed chair’s “not really doing a good job.” He also championed his tariff regime at a rally that came just hours after he signed a pair of executive orders pulling back some of his auto levies.
• US Secretary of State Marco Rubio plans to speak with the foreign ministers of India and Pakistan in an attempt to calm tensions. BBG
• Trump continues to float fresh tax cut proposals while Republicans struggle to agree on ways to lower the cost of the reconciliation bill. Axios
• Top Trump advisor reportedly struggled to soothe investors in talks after market tumult in which Stephen Miran met with hedge funds and big asset managers after tariffs sparked Wall Street turmoil, according to FT.
• China’s factory PMI slipped into the worst contraction since December 2023, revealing early damage of US tariffs. Beijing has created a list of US-made products that would be exempted from its 125% tariffs. BBG
• Chinese sovereign investor CIC is selling about $1 billion of its private equity investment portfolio in the secondary market. The assets are held in a number of funds managed by eight U.S. fund managers, including Blackstone Inc and Carlyle Group. RTRS
• Huawei has started the delivery of its advanced AI chip “cluster” to Chinese clients who are increasing orders after being cut off from Nvidia’s semiconductors because of Washington’s export restrictions. FT
• Japan eco data falls short for Mar, including retail sales (-1.2% M/M vs. the Street -0.7%) and industrial production (-1.1% M/M vs. the Street -0.4%). BBG
• The euro-area economy grew 0.4% last quarter, more than expected, though is yet to feel the full force of US tariffs. The German and French economies returned to growth. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newquawk

APAC stocks failed to sustain the positive handover from Wall St and traded mixed at month-end as the region digested a slew of data including disappointing Chinese official PMIs, while there was a muted reaction and very few surprises from US President Trump’s speech to commemorate his first 100 days back in office. ASX 200 eked mild gains as strength in tech, healthcare and financials offset the losses in the utilities and commodity-related sectors but with the upside limited after firmer-than-expected CPI data saw money markets fully price out the chances of a larger 50bps RBA rate cut in May. Nikkei 225 was choppy with the upside contained following disappointing Industrial Production and Retail Sales, while the BoJ also kick-started its two-day policy meeting and there were some comments from a group representing major foreign automakers which noted that President Trump’s latest tariff order for autos provides some relief but more must be done. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were indecisive after official Chinese Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs disappointed although Caixin Manufacturing PMI topped forecasts, while the mainland heads into a five-day weekend owing to Labor Day holiday closures and participants also reflected on key earnings releases including disappointing results from China’s Big 4 banks.

Top Asian News

• Chinese President Xi says China is to adjust economic plans based on global change; to promote transformation of traditional industries; says they are to stabilize markets and expectations Urges to address weak links in economy. Urges to achieve goals in all aspects. Says to understand impact of changes in international situation. Says China to optimize economic planning based on situations. Urges measures to stabilize employment. Says to promote transformation of traditional industries. Says China to adjust economic plan based on global change. Says China needs to adapt to changing situations.
• China NPC standing committee passed the private sector promotion law which will take effect from May 20th.
• Australian Treasurer Chalmers said the market expects more interest rate cuts after inflation figures and he doesn’t see anything in the data as substantially altering market expectations.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) opened mostly firmer and have traded tentatively within a tight range ahead of the day’s key risk events. European sectors hold a strong positive bias; Media (lifted by post-earning strength in UMG) and Telecoms takes the top spots, whilst Travel & Leisure and Basic Resources underperform. rnings include: Mercedes Benz (-0.8%) down Y/Y, high uncertainty noted; Volkswagen (U/C) miss, expects results at lower-end of guidance; UBS (+0.2%) beat; Stellantis (+1.5%) in-line, suspends guidance; Barclays (-0.3%) beat, upgrades NII guidance; GSK (+4%) beat; TotalEnergies (-3.2%) mixed, continue buybacks, confident in growth objective; ASM International (U/C) orders & margin beat; Air France (+1.6%) beat, confirms outlook; Iberdrola (-1.3%) mixed, expect strong performance ahead.

Top European News

• Germany’s SPD has approved the coalition deal with the CDU/CSU, via Reuters citing sources. SPD’s Klingbeil will be the Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister of the new German Government, according to German media.

FX

• DXY is currently building on Tuesday’s gains in quiet trade. The two main drivers for price action were relief on the tariff front (autos) and soft US data (JOLTS and Consumer Confidence). Data will likely provide some impetus for the Greenback today with Q1 GDP/PCE and monthly PCE due on the docket. Q1 GDP may be seen as stale in some quarters given its precedes the announcement of US tariffs. DXY has ventured as high as 99.43 with Monday’s peak at 99.83.
• EUR softer vs. the USD in what has been a busy morning of data which kicked off with steady French GDP, hot French inflation and in-line German GDP which saw the nation avoid a technical recession, but ultimately showed a Y/Y contraction. Thereafter, Eurozone GDP exceeded expectations (Q/Q 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.2%) but failed to have any sway on the EUR given that it doesn’t capture the impact of Trump’s tariffs (aside from some potential front-loading of orders).
• USD/JPY is higher after Japanese Industrial Production and Retail Sales disappointed overnight, prompting concerns over a negative outturn for Q1 GDP. Attention now turns to the BoJ, where the Bank is expected to keep rates steady. USD/JPY is north of Tuesday’s high at 142.75 but is yet to approach the 143 mark.
• GBP is slightly softer vs. the USD and EUR with fresh macro drivers on the light side. Tier 2 data via the Lloyds Business Barometer and Nationwide House Index had little sway on GBP. On the trade front, the Guardian reports that US officials have split trade negotiations into three phases; the UK has reportedly been placed in either phase two or three. UK officials are also concerned that any EU-UK deal could make negotiations with the US more challenging.
• AUD is the marginal outperformer across the majors on account of firm inflation metrics overnight (Q/Q 0.9% vs. exp. 0.8%, Y/Y 2.4% vs. exp. 2.3%).
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.2014 vs exp. 7.2670 (Prev. 7.2029).

Fixed Income

• A relatively contained start to the session with USTs holding onto Tuesday’s spoils, firmer by a handful of ticks in a 112-03 to 112-09 band. Limited resistance in the near-term, nothing of particular note until 114-03+ from early April and thereafter 114-10. On the data front, the docket begins with ADP as a preview into Friday’s NFP. Thereafter, Q1 GDP, PCE and Employment Costs due. Afterwards, we get the monthly PCE figure.
• Bunds began the morning holding at the top-end of Tuesday’s 131.16-46 parameters, in-fitting with USTs. Then, after the European cash equity open, EGBs began to gradually pick up and despite being knocked briefly by marginally hotter German state CPI metrics than mainland consensus implies, Bunds are at a fresh 131.74 peak. EZ GDP metrics came in above expectations, but ultimately had little impact on the complex given the survey period does not include the implementation of Trump tariffs. German 2041 & 2044 outings were mixed, but ultimately had little impact on the complex.
• Gilts are outperforming, gapped higher by just over 10 ticks and then in-fitting with EGBs after the cash equity open began to extend higher and hit a 93.68 high for the session. Strength occurs despite a lack of fresh drivers in today’s session thus far aside from supply, an auction that came in strong with another b/c well clear of the 3x mark and a slim tail. Results sparked a modest bid in Gilts but one that occurred within existing 93.35-68 confines.
• UK sells GBP 4.5bln 4.375% 2028 Gilt: b/c 3.48x (prev. 3.27x), average yield 3.834% (prev. 4.263%) & tail 0.2bps (prev. 0.4bps).
• Germany sells EUR 1.143bln vs exp. EUR 1.5bln 2.60% 2041 and EUR 0.452bln vs exp. EUR 0.5bln 2.50% 2044 Bunds.

Commodities

• Crude is softer for the third session in a row following yesterday’s slide which now sees WTI back under USD 60/bbl. Desks pin the downside to ongoing tariff risks alongside expectations of OPEC+ further opening the taps. Furthermore, the bearish Private Inventory report on Tuesday only adds to the downbeat mood. Brent July in a USD 62.17-63.34/bbl range.
• Precious metals are lower across the board amid a firmer dollar intraday and following US President Trump softening the Auto tariffs, which further unwinds some risk premium. Spot gold resides in a USD 3,280.28-3,328.16/oz range at the time of writing, within Monday’s USD 3,268-3,353.20/oz range.
• Hefty losses across base metals against the backdrop of a firmer dollar coupled with a cautious risk tone. 3M LME copper is currently in a USD 9,206.17-9,436.60/t range at the time of writing.
• Equinor (EQNR NO) CEO says European gas storage is low, expect a tight market during refilling. Europe will need 200-300 extra LNG cargoes to refill storage this year.
• US Private inventory data (bbls): Crude +3.8mln (exp. +0.5mln), Distillate -2.5mln (exp. -1.7mln), Gasoline -3.1mln (exp. -1.2mln), Cushing +0.7mln.
• Chile’s Codelco Chairman said April Copper production +22% Y/Y.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• “Israeli government statement: On Netanyahu’s instructions, the army carried out a strike against a group that tried to attack the Druze in Sahnaya (Syria)”, via Sky News Arabia.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi says US sanctions send a negative message during the nuclear talks; E3 will hold talks in Rome on Friday and with the US on Saturday.
• UK forces participated in a joint operation with US forces against a Houthi military target in Yemen, while the UK said the strike was conducted after dark when the likelihood of any civilians being in the area was reduced and all aircraft returned safely.

Geopoltiics: Ukraine

• Kremlin spokesperson says settlement should be reached with Ukraine, and not the US, via Tass “We are working very intensively with the US on Ukraine”.
• US President Trump said he thinks Russian President Putin wants peace but he was not happy when he saw Putin shooting missiles, according to ABC News.
• White House Press Secretary said President Trump is confident the Ukraine minerals deal will be signed.

Geopolitics: Other

• Pakistan’s Information Minister said they have credible evidence that India is planning “military aggression” against Pakistan within 24-36 hours.
• North Korea conducted the first test firing of a new warship, according to Yonhap. It was also reported that South Korean intelligence assessed that North Korea’s combat capabilities have improved and that North Korea suffered 600 deaths during its dispatch of troops to Russia, while South Korean intelligence is monitoring a possible surprise summit between North Korea and the US.

US Event Calendar

• 7:00 am: Apr 25 MBA Mortgage Applications -4.2%, prior -12.7%
• 8:15 am: Apr ADP Employment Change, est. 115k, prior 155k
• 8:30 am: 1Q A GDP Annualized QoQ, est. -0.15%, prior 2.4%
• 8:30 am: 1Q A Personal Consumption, est. 1.16%, prior 4%
• 8:30 am: 1Q A GDP Price Index, est. 3.1%, prior 2.3%
• 8:30 am: 1Q A Core PCE Price Index QoQ, est. 3.1%, prior 2.6%
• 8:30 am: 1Q Employment Cost Index, est. 0.9%, prior 0.9%
• 9:45 am: Apr MNI Chicago PMI, est. 45.9, prior 47.6
• 10:00 am: Mar Personal Income, est. 0.4%, prior 0.8%
• 10:00 am: Mar Personal Spending, est. 0.6%, prior 0.4%
• 10:00 am: Mar PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0%, prior 0.3%
• 10:00 am: Mar PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.2%, prior 2.5%
• 10:00 am: Mar Core PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.4%
• 10:00 am: Mar Core PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.6%, prior 2.8%
• 10:00 am: Mar Pending Home Sales MoM, est. 1%, prior 2%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Shares of Super Micro Computer plunged in premarket trading in New York after the U.S.-based technology company reported preliminary third-quarter results that missed Bloomberg Consensus estimates. 

Analysts at JPMorgan do not believe the revenue miss signals a broader industry demand slowdown. Meanwhile, Goldman analysts recently revised their peak data center capacity forecasts forward from late 2026 to this year. 

“During Q3 some delayed customer platform decisions moved sales into Q4,” Super Micro wrote in a business update and preliminary financial results press release on Tuesday evening, adding that it also saw “higher inventory reserves resulting from older generation products.”

Super Micro produces, designs, and manufactures high-performance servers, storage systems, and networking equipment. It’s a key supplier of data center hardware, and preliminary results may paint an ominous outlook for the artificial intelligence bubble. 

The preannouncement forecasted third-quarter revenue between $4.5 billion and $4.6 billion, with earnings per share of 29 to 31 cents — both well below the prior guidance of $5 billion to $6 billion in revenue and earnings per share of 46 to 62 cents.

Goldman analysts Michael Ng and others provided their first take on the preannouncement:

Bottom line: SMCI should trade lower on the negative preannouncement which includes a revenue miss – at least in part driven by customer platform decision delays into next quarter – as well as a 220 bps gross margins qoq decline on higher inventory reserves on old products and new product expedite costs. We view read-throughs to the broader AI infrastructure group (e.g., DELL, ANET) as negative given the reference to platform decision delays and the gross margin pressure.

SMCI negatively pre-announced F3Q25 with a revenue, gross margin, and EPS miss. Revenue of $4.5-$4.6 bn missed GS/consensus of $5.3/$5.4 bn (prior guidance of $5.0-$6.0 bn) with SMCI citing customer delays into F4Q. Gross margins of 9.7% declined 220 bps qoq and reflected higher inventory reserves from older generation product and expedite costs to enable time-to-market for new products. EPS of $0.29-$0.31 missed GS/consensus of $0.53/$0.53 (prior guidance of $0.46-$0.62). SMCI will have its earnings call on May 6 after-market.

Ng is “Sell” rated on Super Micro …

Here’s additional analyst commentary on Super Micro (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Bloomberg Intelligence

• “Super Micro’s preannounced 15% 3Q sales miss vs. prior guidance is indicative of a reliance on mega-AI deals,” but “sustained product-design wins suggest AI-server activity could still be intact, despite economic concerns”

JPMorgan (neutral, PT to $36 from $39)

• The magnitude of the Super Micro miss is not representative of industry-wide challenges

• “Given the limited visibility around the opportunity for SMCI to completely catch up to the revenue push-out in the next quarter”

Citi (neutral, PT $39)

• “The company cited gross margin declined 220bps qq (Street at 12.0%) on higher inventory reserves and expedite costs, while some customer platform decisions were delayed, shifting sales to 4Q”

Lynx Equity Strategies

• “Investor concern is obviously going to be whether the much- anticipated AI capex cuts” is hurting SMCI, but “we do not think there has been a fundamental change in end market dynamics”

• “Whereas there could be some churn in orders from data centers, we think the US-based nature of SMCI’s production renders their shipments to US customers relatively safe”

Remember last year, when Super Micro delayed its annual report and Ernst & Young abruptly resigned as auditor — a double whammy that sent shares crashing.

As of Tuesday’s close, shares remain 70% below the all-time high of nearly $120 a share, established in early 2024. Shares have yet to recover – and crashed more in premarket on the negative preannouncement, down around 18% at the $29 handle.

Will end with pointing readers to Goldman’s note from three weeks ago, which highlights that the peak data center capacity forecast was revised and brought forward (read: here). 

Some of Europe’s largest automakers have withdrawn their financial guidance for the year, citing mounting macroeconomic uncertainty sparked by President Trump’s trade war. While Trump signed an order Tuesday easing specific auto tariffs, Mercedes-Benz Group still withdrew its full-year outlook.

“The current volatility with regard to tariff policies, mitigation measures and resulting potential direct and indirect effects in particular on customer behaviour and demand is too high to reliably assess the business development for the remainder of the year,” Mercedes warned in an earnings press release for the first quarter. 

Mercedes ships Europe-made vehicles via cargo ships to North America while also producing SUVs, luxury vehicles, EVs, and vans at its Tuscaloosa, Alabama, and Charleston, South Carolina plants.

At its Tuscaloosa plant, Mercedes manufactures SUVs such as the GLE, GLS, GLE Coupe, and the ultra-luxury Mercedes-Maybach GLS, as well as electric models like the EQE and EQS SUVs. In Charleston, the company produces both the Sprinter and e-Sprinter vans. 

On Tuesday evening, President Trump signed an executive order aimed at easing the burden of auto-related tariffs. The order includes provisions to lower duties on steel, aluminum, and foreign-made parts, and prevents multiple tariffs from stacking on a single vehicle. However, the 25% tariff on imported vehicles entering the US remains in place. 

Under the order, additional 25% tariffs on auto parts will begin on May 3, but vehicles that go through final assembly in the US will qualify for partial reimbursements on those levies for two years. 

At a rally in Michigan, Trump told the crowd his administration will “slaughter them [automakers] if they don’t” re-shore critical supply chains of parts to the US.

Trump announces a rollback in his tariff policy for automobiles, but then says “we give them a little time before we slaughter them if they don’t do this.” pic.twitter.com/VyOaVXQi9c

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) April 29, 2025

In addition to Mercedes, Stellantis NV, Volvo Car, and General Motors have all pulled their full-year forecasts because of tariffs. 

Volkswagen has left its outlook unchanged for the year but warned it has yet to factor in the tariffs, while Aston Martin has announced plans to limit shipments of its luxury sports cars to the US.

Goldman analyst Jeremy Elster commented on the European auto industry…

AUTOS… trading flat on the day despite the guidance suspensions and cuts.  Tariff relief is part of the explanation. Perhaps not directly, but because it hints at willingness to bend to industry pressuree on relief (more on tariff relief details from mark Delaney here). Going through the prints today:

• Mercedes miss & suspend guide. Saying guide would be in tact were it not for tariffs, which makes P911 material downgrades PRE tariff impacts yesterday look even worse in hindsight. The MBG 1Q is a bit better in the details; Cars margin 7.3% vs cons 6.9%, and yet another strong cash quarter (Ind FCF 2,405m vs consensus 1,790m, a 34% beat), albeit this is somewhat overshadowed by the specific cash comment on tariffs; “negative impacts on the cash conversion rates of the automotive segments cannot be ruled out either”.  On the call, company saying fy impact of tariffs from here would be around -300bps to Cars margins (i.e. annualised impact would be higher)… implies material downgrades (as much as 400bps vs 7% margin guide starting point, pre mitigation).

• VW first take is worse of the two German prints. Difficult to marry the optimism we heard from the company through q1 with another margins miss at Brand Group Core, but perhaps tailwinds from stronger Europe production become more evident over q2/q3. Headline group ebit is a -7% miss, margins are a 20bps miss, cash flow is more or less in-line.  Guide is moved to low end of the range, but does not include any impact from tariffs.

• STLAM 1Q is revenues only, but also a small miss (-1% vs consensus). Net price -3.4% looks a little worse than feared. Guidance is suspended. Inventories ticked up slightly vs Q4 to support better expected deliveries in Europe in Q2. We’ve started to field some more, very hesitant, constructive incoming on STLA given tariff relief in US (relative to German OEMs), but for the stock to turn the market will need more confidence on cash and market share stabilisation.

The trade war adds to the problems for European automakers, who face muted demand across Europe and rising competition from Chinese brands, including BYD. 

Authored by Aaron Gifford via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The University of Pennsylvania (UPenn) remains in violation of Title IX regulations lingering from a transgender-identifying athlete’s victory in an NCAA women’s swimming title for the school in 2022 and will have 10 days to resolve the issue before the matter is referred to the Department of Justice, federal officials said on April 28.

The announcement was made after the Department of Education’s Office for Civil Rights sent a notice of noncompliance to UPenn President Larry Jameson.

Jameson was informed that in addition to complying with current NCAA regulations and President Donald Trump’s February executive order prohibiting males from competing in women’s sports, UPenn was required to relinquish that athlete’s 2022 championship title and issue an apology to the female athletes he defeated.

The Ivy League school is also expected to issue a statement asserting that all its athletic programs comply with Title IX.

Title IX is a federal law enacted in 1972 that prohibits educational institutions receiving federal funding from engaging in sex discrimination and assures fairness for NCAA women’s sports programs. President Joe Biden interpreted Title IX to allow people to participate on sports based on their gender identities instead of based on their biological sex, and Trump reversed that under his executive order.

UPenn must also restore to female athletes their rightful records, titles, and honors, “or similar recognition for Division I swimming competitions misappropriated by male athletes competing in female categories.”

In addition, “the university must send a letter to each female athlete whose individual recognition is restored, expressing an apology on behalf of the university for allowing her educational experience to be marred by sex discrimination,” the April 28 news release said.

In 2022, transgender-identifying UPenn student Lia Thomas won a Division I NCAA women’s swimming championship in the 500-yard freestyle event after competing on the men’s team from 2017–2020.

Riley Gaines, a former Kentucky women’s swimmer who competed against Thomas, and Paula Scanlan, a former teammate of Thomas’s who had to share a locker room with the male athlete identifying as transgender, have lobbied against men’s participation in women’s sports.

“Little girls who look up to Riley Gaines and Paula Scanlan can find hope in today’s action—the Trump administration will not allow male athletes to invade female private spaces or compete in female categories,” Craig Trainor, Department of Education acting assistant secretary for civil rights, said in the news release.

“UPenn has a choice to … do the right thing for its female students and come into full compliance with Title IX immediately, or continue to advance an extremist political project that violates federal antidiscrimination law and puts UPenn’s federal funding at risk.”

The news release does not identify Thomas by name, but it does specify that these events are linked to the NCAA Division I swimming championships.

The Trump administration has already suspended $175 million of UPenn’s federal funding over issues related to the transgender-identifying swimmer.

The Epoch Times reached out to UPenn for comment.

In a March 20 statement, the school noted that it was complying with Trump’s executive orders prohibiting men from competing in women’s sports.

“Penn is in full compliance with this most recent change,” the statement said. “The university’s athletic programs have always operated within the framework provided by the federal government, the NCAA, and our conference.”

The Department of Justice recently announced that it will file a lawsuit against Maine for allowing high school transgender-identifying male athletes to compete on the state’s women’s teams.

Samantha Dart, Goldman’s co-head of Global Commodities Research, told clients on Tuesday that U.S. natural gas prices appear oversold and reaffirmed a bullish price forecast for the summer period, citing tightening market fundamentals. 

“Upside to Sum25 Henry Hub from here. On net, we continue to see U.S. gas prices as oversold. With net long positions by managed money now more normalized and fundamentals tightening into peak summer as discussed above, we maintain our Bal Sum25 Henry Hub forecast of $3.90/mmBtu,” Dart said. 

Dart noted that NatGas production may remain elevated into the early summer months, longer than she previously anticipated, though she expects a decline to begin in June. She explained that the recent surge in output is primarily due to previously drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) and delayed turn-in-line wells (DTILs) now coming online, describing this as a temporary phenomenon: 

The elevated U.S. natural gas production we flagged recently might last longer into this summer than we expect, but production will ultimately move lower. To be sure, we still expect lower Appalachia production sequentially, as a weather-driven decline in Northeast heating demand pressures local wellhead prices lower1 . However, production levels might ultimately remain above our expectations into early summer. To be clear, EQT commented last week during its earnings call that this surge in production has been largely due to wells that had been previously inventoried – as drilled but uncompleted (DUCs) or delayed turn-in-lines (DTILs) – but are now producing, which we think is consistent with a strong price incentive from 1Q25 Henry Hub having averaged in the high $3s/mmBtu, with local Appalachia prices not far behind. This suggests a one-off boost to local production, with heavy declines rates for the new wells likely setting in from June.

In the Northeast, particularly in Appalachia, Dart said production will likely slide as weak local prices, driven mainly through reduced heating demand, put pressure on wellhead economics. She pointed out that U.S. power burns have recovered faster than modeled, with increased coal-to-gas switching:

C2G starting to respond. At the same time, power burns have started to recover vs our modeled expectations, suggesting that utilities are likely increasing C2G switching following the drop in gas prices. The gas share of U.S. thermal generation has started to rise and is now at the highest level year to date at 70%.

She pointed out that NatGas-fired generation now accounts for 70% of U.S. thermal generation, the highest level so far this year. 

It appears that Israel has intelligence which strongly suggests the majority of 59 hostages remaining in Gaza are dead. It has long been acknowledged that at least some of the captives are deceased, but the Israeli government has kept a tight lid on information it has on the numbers.

And Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s wife Sara has unleashed new controversy, heightening tensions and outrage from victims’ families. She was heard on a hot mic at an event on Monday saying that “fewer” than 24 hostages are still alive in Gaza.

It’s unclear whether she intended to be heard by the audience at a moment her husband, PM Benjamin Netanyahu was speaking, but she muttered something key and it was picked up by the microphone.

Below is CNN’s account of what happened and what was said:

“We have of course an important task, not only to win but also to bring home (the hostages),” Netanyahu said at a meeting with Israeli holiday torchbearers on Monday. “Until today we have returned 196 of our hostages, 147 of whom were alive. There are… up to 24 living. Up to 24 living.”

“Fewer,” Sara Netanyahu interrupted quietly, seated to her husband’s right.

“I say up to,” Netanyahu quickly responded. “And the rest are, I’m sorry to say, not alive. And we will return them.”

Lately Israeli officials have issued alarm, saying they believe more hostages may be in danger of dying as the conflict drags on. Ceasefire negotiations with Hamas have been collapsed and nonexistent for months at this point.

Victims’ families and anti-Netanyahu protesters have demanded the resumption of the truce deal, in order to see the remaining captives released. The Netanyahu government has instead opted for a military solution.

“On the eve of Memorial Day, you sowed indescribable panic in the hearts of the families of the hostages – families already living in agonizing uncertainty,” the Hostages and Missing Families Forum said in a statement, blasting Israeli leadership.

“If there is intelligence or new information regarding the condition of our loved ones, we demand full disclosure,” the group said, and urged that if the prime minister’s wife has new information she should make it known immediately.

“If the wife of the prime minister has new information about the kidnapped who were killed, I demand from her to know if my Matan is still alive, or if he was murdered in captivity because your husband refuses to finish the war,” Einav Zangauker, the mother of one of the hostages, also said on social media, as quoted in CNN.

Israel’s military has vowed to eradicate Hamas, but that’s easier said than done given the vast tunnel network of the terror group remains in place. It’s also believed there are still tens of thousands of Hamas fighters.