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Tired of reading 640 pages of “The Intelligent Investor”? Exhausted from imbibing 700 pages of “Security Analysis”? Fed up with the 400 pages of “The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money”? Have no fear, we have summarized the new normal’s investing mantra into 14 words…
h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer
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via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/rpfhEbYfaY4/story01.htm Tyler Durden
We have long discussed the 'hidden' and not-so-hidden inflations that are impacting the standard of living for all but the wealthiest in America… and it is hardly new to anyone that the USA faces a demographic dilemma as aging boomers draw down on an ever-shrinking base of entitlement provisions… However, when we saw this slide from Kimberly-Clark's latest earnings call, we were surprised at just how clearly these two trends showed up…
So… Aging Demographics:
And… Stealth Inflation…
Welcome to the new normal!
As we noted previously…
In the last two years, according to Intuit, Americans are reaching deeper into their pockets to cover family-related expenses. Given the current concerns over dis-inflationary pressures, we thought the following infographic might highlight just where that hidden liquidity-/credit-fueled inflation is leaking out.
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via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/DhDdXq0qPmc/story01.htm Tyler Durden
Today I’m going to tell you about the single most important metric for long-term investing.
That metric is the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio or CAPE ratio.
Generally speaking, most investors price a company based on its current Price to Earnings or P/E ratio. Essentially what you’re doing is comparing the price of the company today to its ability to produce earnings (cash).
However, corporate earnings are heavily influenced by the business cycle.
Typically the US experiences a boom and bust once every ten years or so. As such, companies will naturally have higher P/E’s at some points and lower P/E’s at other. This is based solely on the business cycle and nothing else.
CAPE adjusts for this by measuring the price of stocks against the average of ten years’ worth of earnings, adjusted for inflation. By doing this, it presents you with a clearer, more objective picture of a company’s ability to produce cash in any economic environment.
I mentioned before that CAPE is the single most important metric for long-term investors. I wasn’t saying that for impact.
Based on a study completed Vanguard, CAPE was the single best metric for measuring future stock returns. Indeed, CAPE outperformed
1. P/E ratios
2. Government Debt/ GDP
3. Dividend yield
4. The Fed Model,
…and many other metrics used by investors to predict market value.
So what is CAPE telling us today?
Today the S&P 500 has a CAPE of over 24. This means the market as a whole is trading at 22 times its average earnings of the last ten years.
Put another way, if you bought the entire stock market today, it would take you roughly 22 years to make your money back.
That is hardly what I’d call cheap.
Indeed, as you’ll note in the above chart, the market has only been above this level three times in history. They were the 1929 Bubble, the Tech Bubble and the Housing Bubble.
All of these times occurred close to market peaks.
This is not to say that stocks can’t go even higher than they are today. Bubbles, such as the one we’re experiencing today, can often last longer than anyone expects.
However, the fact is that the markets are significantly overpriced. And based on over 100 years worth of data, this kind of overvaluation usually precedes a market peak.
This doesn’t mean the markets will crash next week or next month. But it does pose a warning to those who are heavily allocated to stocks, expecting to see significant upside in the long-term.
For a FREE Special Report outlining how to protect your portfolio from the Fed’s policies, swing by: http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/special-reports.html
Best
Phoenix Capital Research
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via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/WInZSVlqSJ4/story01.htm Phoenix Capital Research
Via Guy Haselmann of Scotiabank,
QE – Speculative Market Fuel
· A weak economic report lifted an overbought equity market to even-loftier historic highs. Investors and traders have become programmed to believe that QE (rather than economic growth) is enough to launch asset prices ever-higher. At the moment, there is little to refute this view. “Melt-up” mentality is back. However, shouldn’t a sluggish economy with slow job creation make investors question whether enough economic activity will be generated to justify prices? Unless the economy improves materially, then today’s move is just another example of speculative excesses caused by QE.
“Adequate Progress” – Undefined
· The key to market direction appears to be driven by assessing the timing of any changes to Fed action. The longer QE lasts the higher prices are expected to be pushed, thus the basis for today’s rally. However, reacting so robotically may not be so straightforward. After all, the FOMC communication has not been that helpful. This is because they say that asset purchases are “dependent on the state of the economy” and “making adequate progress”, yet they never define what “adequate” means.
Unemployment Rate Creeping Toward the 7% Threshold
· The FOMC initially presented “thresholds”, saying QE would end when the unemployment rate (UR) hit 7.0%, but the rate has already hit 7.2%. How will the markets react if the rate falls to 7.0% with the next employment report two weeks from Friday – and QE has not yet ended (let alone begun)? Would the Fed lose credibility if this occurs? Would it spook markets who are now expecting QE to continue well into 2014?
Fed Policy Based on an Unstable Indicator
· The Fed has problematically tied their policy to an inherently unstable and unpredictable economic indicator (i.e., the unemployment rate). This guidance may need to change as they develop a (sorely-needed) QE withdrawal strategy. Formulating and communicating such a strategy would be helpful to markets as well as to the FOMC who would benefit from getting all members on the same page.
FOMC Press Conferences
· A detailed or updated QE exit strategy could be presented at the October 30th FOMC meeting. The stakes are rising, so announcing that a press conference will occur at every meeting is likely.
· “I live on a one-way street that is also a dead end. I’m not sure how I got there.” –Steven Wright
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via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/I5C2EGHR-sk/story01.htm Tyler Durden
Just as we wondered earlier in the day…
Has Icahn tweeted an update on his NFLX position yet?
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 22, 2013
Sold block of NFLX today. Wish to thank Reed Hastings, Ted Sarandos, NFLX team, and last but not least Kevin Spacey: http://t.co/BRWpKOBfD2
— Carl Icahn (@Carl_C_Icahn) October 22, 2013
What is perhaps most worrisome for the market is the sale of 2.99 million shares collapsed the market cap by around 20%…
Of course, he hedges his sell…
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via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/35OgRgydCIw/story01.htm Tyler Durden
By ROBERT ROSS and TREY RAGSDALE
Many of us moved to Fayette County for its highly regarded public schools, low crime rates, and the wide-open spaces, or maybe the charm of small towns like Tyrone, Brooks, and Woolsey.
We also recognize the need for a vibrant economy to provide career opportunities right here for our children, along with the attendant challenges of growth.
How do we retain our character and grow too? How do we maximize our strengths and respond to threats? How do we thrive without selling the soul of Fayette County?
via The Citizen http://www.thecitizen.com/blogs/robert-ross/10-22-2013/fayette-county-move-%E2%80%94-welcome-aboard
The fiasco in Washington over the partial government shutdown, raising the debt ceiling and deepening animosity between Republicans and Democrats (and Republicans and Republicans), has left many asking if there is any way out of this bitter, endless cycle. There may be.
The Financial Times recently suggested that America’s largest foreign creditor — China — might want to reduce the size of its loans financing our debt.
via The Citizen http://www.thecitizen.com/blogs/cal-thomas/10-22-2013/just-say-%E2%80%98no%E2%80%99-underwriting-more-debt
There are many things that might have been done to reform healthcare in the United States after Barack Obama was elected. The Affordable Care Act does begin to address some of these problems:
It begins to break the bond of employers being the primary provider of health insurance coverage.
This was always an odd idea that exists as an artifact of the wage and price freeze of World War Two. Employers were not allowed to raise wages to attract workers, so they began offering “fringe” benefits instead.
via The Citizen http://www.thecitizen.com/blogs/greg-scandlen/10-22-2013/universal-health-insurance-lie
Back years ago when Mama was widowed, it became suddenly and shockingly clear that she wasn’t completely capable of being on her own. This was news to us because she had always stepped up and did whatever it took to look after our family. She was quite ingenious and hard working.
“Ronda,” she said one day. “I need you to call the doctor’s office and make my annual appointment.”
“Why can’t you call?” I asked.
“Because I’m afraid to. I get nervous and I’m afraid I’ll say something wrong.”
via The Citizen http://www.thecitizen.com/blogs/ronda-rich/10-22-2013/mama-her-own
The National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) Global Terrorism Database – part of a joint government-university program on terrorism – is hosted at the University of Maryland.
START is the most comprehensive open source terrorism database, which can be viewed by journalists and civilians lacking national security clearance.
A quick review of charts from the START database show that terrorism has increased in the last 9 years since the U.S. started its “war on terror”.
This chart shows the number of terror attacks conducted in Iraq:
The Middle East:
Asia:
Indeed, global terrorism had been falling from 1992 until 2004 … but has been skyrocketing since 2004:
Security experts – including both conservatives and liberals – agree that waging war in the Middle East weakens national security and increases terrorism. See this, this, this, this, this, this, this and this.
Ooops.
Killing innocent civilians is one of the main things which increases terrorism. As one of the top counter-terrorism experts (the former number 2 counter-terrorism expert at the State Department) told me, starting wars against states which do not pose an imminent threat to America’s national security increases the threat of terrorism because:
One of the principal causes of terrorism is injuries to people and families.
The Iraq war wasn’t even fought to combat terrorism. And Al Qaeda wasn’t even in Iraq until the U.S. invaded that country.
And top CIA officers say that drone strikes increase terrorism (and see this).
Furthermore, James K. Feldman – former professor of decision analysis and economics at the Air Force Institute of Technology and the School of Advanced Airpower Studies – and other experts say that foreign occupation is the main cause of terrorism
University of Chicago professor Robert A. Pape – who specializes in international security affairs – points out:
Extensive research into the causes of suicide terrorism proves Islam isn’t to blame — the root of the problem is foreign military occupations.
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Each month, there are more suicide terrorists trying to kill Americans and their allies in Afghanistan, Iraq, and other Muslim countries than in all the years before 2001 combined.
***
New research provides strong evidence that suicide terrorism such as that of 9/11 is particularly sensitive to foreign military occupation, and not Islamic fundamentalism or any ideology independent of this crucial circumstance. Although this pattern began to emerge in the 1980s and 1990s, a wealth of new data presents a powerful picture.
More than 95 percent of all suicide attacks are in response to foreign occupation, according to extensive research [co-authored by James K. Feldman – former professor of decision analysis and economics at the Air Force Institute of Technolo
gy and the School of Advanced Airpower Studies] that we conducted at the University of Chicago’s Project on Security and Terrorism, where we examined every one of the over 2,200 suicide attacks across the world from 1980 to the present day. As the United States has occupied Afghanistan and Iraq, which have a combined population of about 60 million, total suicide attacks worldwide have risen dramatically — from about 300 from 1980 to 2003, to 1,800 from 2004 to 2009. Further, over 90 percent of suicide attacks worldwide are now anti-American. The vast majority of suicide terrorists hail from the local region threatened by foreign troops, which is why 90 percent of suicide attackers in Afghanistan are Afghans.
Israelis have their own narrative about terrorism, which holds that Arab fanatics seek to destroy the Jewish state because of what it is, not what it does. But since Israel withdrew its army from Lebanon in May 2000, there has not been a single Lebanese suicide attack. Similarly, since Israel withdrew from Gaza and large parts of the West Bank, Palestinian suicide attacks are down over 90 percent.
***
The first step is recognizing that occupations in the Muslim world don’t make Americans any safer — in fact, they are at the heart of the problem.
In addition, torture creates new terrorists:
Torture creates more terrorists and fosters more acts of terror than it could possibly neutralize.
“The administration’s policies concerning [torture] and the resulting controversies … strengthened the hand of our enemies.”
So the widespread program of torture under the Bush administration didn’t help.
Additionally – in the name of fighting our enemies – the U.S. has directly been supporting Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups for the last decade. See this, this, this, this and this.
We have given up the fundamental rights which make us American.
The government insisted that – if we gave up our liberties – it would keep us safe.
It has failed to do so, and has instead squandered our national treasure, our resources and our troops on efforts which have only increased the risk of terrorism.
A large amount of the homeland security spending has been wasted … producing &ldquo
;a bunch of crap”.
For example, spending money on zombie apocalypse training or other silly programs is a bad investment which led to a false sense of security.
Spending defense money on a workshop called “Did Jesus die for Klingons too?” and DOD-run microbreweries is probably not helping stop terrorist attacks.
Moreover, using homeland security resources to spy on average Americans or crack down on peaceful protesters or government critics distracts from getting the actual bad guys.
At the same time, both the Bush and Obama administrations have slashed funding for programs which would actually help prevent terror attacks.
Heck of a job, guys …
Regime change was planned throughout the Middle East and North Africa were planned 20 years ago … long before 9/11.
As just one example, U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, 4-Star General (and CENTCOM commander with responsibility for Iraq) John Abizaid, key war architect John Bolton, a high-level National Security Council officer, President George W. Bush, Bush speech writer David Frum, Senator John McCain, Fed boss Alan Greenspan and Sarah Palin all say that the Iraq war was about oil. Documents from Britain show the same thing.
Much of the war on terror is really a fight for natural gas. Or to force the last few hold-outs into dollars and private central banking.
Senior government officials have described terrorist attacks as a “small price to pay for being a superpower”. And while politicians talk about ending the war on terror, endless war is a feature – not a bug – of our foreign policy.
Whatever the real agenda one thing is clear … In the same way that NSA spying isn’t about preventing terrorism (proof here, here, here and here), the war on terror is cover for other shenanigans.
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via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/uJ-qP4ayyBI/story01.htm George Washington