This week brings PMIs (US and Euro area ‘flash’) and inflation (US PCE, CPI in Germany, Spain, and Japan). Among other releases, next week in DMs includes [on Monday] PMIs in US (June P), Euro Area Composite (expect 52.8, a touch below previous) and Japan; [on Tuesday] US home prices (FHFA and S&P/Case Shiller) and Consumer Confidence (expect 83.5, same as consensus), Germany IFO; [on Wednesday] US Durable Goods Orders (expect -0.50%, at touch below consensus) and real GDP 1Q anniversary. 3rd (expect -2.0%) and Personal Consumption 1Q (expect 2.0%), and confidence indicators in Germany, France and Italy; [on Thursday] US PCE price index (expect 0.20%), Personal Income and Spending, and GS Analyst Index; and [on Friday] Reuters/U. Michigan Confidence (expect slight improvement to 82, same as consensus), GDP 1Q in France and UK (expect 0.8% and 0.9% yoy, respectively), and CPI in Germany, Italy, Spain and Japan.
There are also a few speeches by policy makers, especially BoJ’s Kuroda, Italy’s Renzi, Fed’s Plosser and Williams, ECB’s Coeure, Constancio, Nouy and Linde; markets will likely also pay attention to the BoE’s Credit Conditions Survey
Key highlights by day (via DB):
- Monday sees the release of global manufacturing and service PMIs. In the US we get the latest existing home sales data.
- Further out this week, on Tuesday, the US prints consumer confidence and new home sales data. The German IFO will be released on the same day. The BoE’s Carney, Bean. Miles and McCafferty testify on the central bank’s May inflation report at the Treasury select committee. Portugal’s government releases its year-to-date budget report.
- On Wednesday, the US Commerce Department publishes its third estimate of Q1 GDP. A number of Street forecasters have revised their GDP estimates lower in recent weeks and consensus is looking for a -1.8% QoQ outcome. Elsewhere on Wednesday’s data docket, we’ll get the latest US durable goods report and the ECB’s Weidmann will be speaking in Germany.
- The main focus on Thursday will be the policy recommendations from the BoE’s Financial Policy Committee which are widely expected to include measures to restrict mortgage lending. The latest US personal spending report will be released. Nike Inc reports earnings on the same day.
- Moving onto Friday, Spain and Germany report June CPI which will be closely watched in light of recent ECB policy measures. EU leaders meet in Brussels to discuss candidates for the next European Commission president. Ukraine’s President Poroshenko is expected to sign a controversial free trade agreement with the EU. Japan reports national CPI for May, and the third estimate of UK GDP will be announced. The ONS is expected to revise its original 0.8% reading up to 0.9%, after recent construction data turned out better than expected.
A detailed daily breakdown (via Goldman Sachs)
Monday, June 23
- Events: Speeches by BoJ’s Kuroda, ECB’s Constancio and Nouy; Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey.
- United States | Markit US Manufacturing PMI (Jun P): Consensus 56, previous 56.4
- United States | Existing Home Sales MoM (May): Consensus 1.70%, previous 1.30%
- United States | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (May): Previous -0.32
- Euro area | Markit Euro area Composite PMI (Jun P): GS 52.8, previous 53.5
- France | Markit France Composite PMI (Jun P): Previous 49.3
- Germany | Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (Jun P): Previous 55.6
- Japan | Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing PMI (Jun P): Previous 49.9
- China | HSBC China Manufacturing PMI (Jun P): GS 49.6, consensus 49.7, previous 49.4
- Singapore | CPI YoY (May): Consensus 2.60%, previous 2.50%
- Hong Kong | CPI Composite YoY (May): Consensus 3.90%, previous 3.70%
- Israel | MP Decision: Consensus expects the base rate on hold (at 0.75%, same as consensus).
- Argentina | GDP YoY (1Q): GS 1.0%, previous 1.40%
- Also interesting: [DM] Markit Manufacturing and Services PMIs in Euro area, France and Germany; NZ International Travel and Migration; South Korea Department Store Sales; Taiwan Unemployment and IP [EM] Unemployment in Israel and Mexico; Argentina CA; Philippines Budget Balance.
Tuesday, June 24
- Events: Speeches by Italy’s Renzi, Fed’s Plosser and Williams, ECB’s Coeure, and RBNZ’s Bascand; Meeting of Hungarian, Czech, Polish, Slovak PMs and EU’s Barros; Congressional Primary Elections in Various US States; ECB Public Hearing on Regulation Fees in Frankfurt.
- United States | Consumer Confidence Index (Jun): GS 83.5, Consensus 83.5, previous 83
- United States | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index (Jun): Consensus 6, previous 7
- United States | S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index (Apr): Consensus 0.8%, previous 1.20%
- United States | New Home Sales MoM (May): GS 0.00%, Consensus 1.60%, previous 6.40%
- Germany | IFO Business Climate (Jun): Consensus 110.1, previous 110.4
- Netherlands | Producer Confidence Index (Jun): Previous 0.7
- Hungary | MP Decision: We expect a 10bp cut in rates (to 2.30% from 2.40%, same as consensus). We think the rate cut will be again motivated by currently low inflation, little inflation risks in the near term, and a supportive risk environment, especially more dovish ECB policies. But aside from the rate decision, the MPC will also decide on the policy direction in the reminder of 2014. At this meeting, the MPC will know the new macro forecasts. And some revisions are very likely, especially after a strong growth print in 1Q and downside inflation surprises so far in 2014. In addition to revising the near-term forecasts, the NBH could also make some downside adjustment to its medium-term inflation path. Together with a more dovish ECB, and thus friendlier external environment, this would support the easing bias of the Hungarian MPC. This will either encourage the MPC to announce more gradual cuts (if the MPC prefers a more cautious tone) or even declare a new rate target (if the MPC is not concerned by a temporary, negative market reaction). Our forecasts now call for an end of cuts at 2.20%, but we continue to see the risk that the MPC may cut somewhat further, to 2.0%.
- Turkey | MP Decision: We expect the Bank to cut the 1-week repo rate by another 50 bp to 9%, while leaving the O/N borrowing and lending rates unchanged at 8% and 12%, respectively. This is in line with consensus and market pricing. We continue to believe that Turkey’s external imbalances (weighing on the TRY), a highly challenging inflation outlook and un-moored inflation expectations do not allow for meaningful monetary easing, more so in view of the fact that there is little if any excess capacity in the economy to provide a disinflationary buffer. The main risk of course is a further deterioration in EM risk sentiment, which could hold the CBRT back from easing policy. Likewise, Iraq related risks could be a concern for the CBRT, encouraging the bank to tread more carefully.
- Mexico | Economic Activity IGAE YoY (Apr): GS 0.70%, previous 3.03%
- Mexico | Bi-Weekly CPI (1H June): GS 0.13% (3.76% yoy), previous 0.15% (3.58% yoy)
- Also interesting: [DM] US FHFA House Price Index; Italy Hourly Wages; Switzerland Trade Balance; UK BBA Loans for House Purchase [EM] China Conference Board China May Leading Economic Index; CA in Brazil and Hungary; Argentina IP; Czech Republic Consumer & Business Confidence; Turkey Capacity Utilization; Argentina Consumer Confidence.
Wednesday, June 25
- Events: Speech by ECB’s Linde and RBA’s Lowe; UK PM Question Time in House of Commons; Senate Finance Committee holds hearing for Treasury Undersecretary Positions.
- United States | Durable Goods Orders (May): GS -0.50%, Consensus -0.20%, previous (r) 0.60%
- United States | GDP Annualized QoQ (1Q T): GS -2.0%, Consensus -1.80%, previous -1.00%
- United States | Personal Consumption (1Q T): GS 2.00%, Consensus 2.50%, previous 3.10%
- United States | Markit US Composite PMI (Jun P): Previous 58.4
- United States | Core PCE QoQ (1Q T): Previous 1.20%
- Germany | GfK Consumer Confidence (Jul): Consensus 8.6, previous 8.5
- France | Business Confidence (Jun): Previous 94
- Italy | Consumer Confidence Index (Jun): Previous 106.3
- United Kingdom | CBI Reported Sales (Jun): Previous 16
- Argentina | Industrial Production MoM (May): GS 1.4% (-3.8% yoy), previous 0.90% (-4.00% yoy)
- Also interesting: [DM] US Markit Services PMI; US GDP Price Index; Italy Retail Sales; Spain PPI; Japan PPI Services; South Korea Consumer Confidence [EM] Philippines Trade Balance; Brazil Total Outstanding Loans; Colombia Trade Balance.
Thursday, June 26
- Events: Brazil Quarterly Inflation Report.
- United States | PCE Deflator MoM (May): GS 0.20%, consensus 0.30%, previous 0.20% (1.60% yoy)
- United States | PCE Core MoM (May): GS 0.18%, consensus 0.20% (1.60% yoy), previous 0.20% (1.40% yoy)
- United States | Personal Income (May): GS 0.50%, consensus 0.40%, previous 0.30%
- United States | Personal Spending (May): GS 0.40%, Consensus 0.40%, previous -0.10%
- Singapore | Industrial Production SA YoY (May): Consensus 2.40%, previous 4.60%
- Taiwan | MP Decision: We expect the benchmark interest rate on hold (at 1.88%). Based on the financial stability report released in May, the central bank will closely monitor the output gap, inflation and external and domestic financial conditions for its policy interest rate decision. On the inflation front, the central bank acknowledged overall inflation pressure to be only modestly higher, and the Directorate General of Budget Accounting and Statistics forecasts 2014 full year CPI growth to be around 1.5% yoy. The central bank also stated in its last meeting that the output gap remained negative. We therefore believe Taiwan’s policy interest rate will remain at 1.875% for the next few months.
- Czech Republic | MP Decision: We expect the CNB Board to leave all the parameters of monetary policy unchanged, that is leave the rates at the current record low level (base rate at 0.05%), keep the one-sided FX peg (EURCZK=27.0), and repeat that the peg will remain in place until at least the end of 1Q2015. The recent developments imply there is no need to adjust the policy now, and overall the CNB Board seems satisfied with the effects of its policy. The economy is recovering, thanks to both rising exports and stronger domestic demand. Inflation is also bottoming out, especially when correcting for the effects of January cuts in utility prices. As a result, core has remained positive and on an upward trend, signaling little risk of deflation. What is more, this meeting falls in between forecast updates. So the Board is unlikely to adjust its policy without a revised outlook. While we do not expect a marked change in CNB’s policy at that time, we think the Board may offer more information on how it plans to exit the FX peg next year (so whether it would exit in one step, or multiple, or by using a managed float regime) and how much time it would wait with normalizing rates after letting the currency float again.
- Also interesting: [DM] US Jobless Claims; France Consumer Confidence, GS Analyst Index; Sweden PPI; Norway Unemployment; Japan Foreign Buying Japan Stocks; Australia Job Vacancies and Financial Accounts; Hong Kong Trade Balance [EM] Poland Retail Sales and Unemployment; Brazil Consumer Confidence and Unemployment.
Friday, June 27
- Events: Thailand Monetary Policy Report.
- United States | Reuters / Univ. of Michigan Confidence (Jun F): GS 82.0, consensus 82.0, previous 81.2
- Euro area | Economic Confidence (Jun): Consensus 103, previous 102.7
- France | GDP QoQ (1Q F): GS 0.0% (0.8% yoy), previous 0.00% (0.80% yoy)
- France | Consumer Spending MoM (May): Previous -0.30% (-0.50% yoy)
- Germany | CPI EU Harmonized MoM (Jun P): Previous -0.30% (0.60% yoy)
- Italy | CPI EU Harmonized YoY (Jun P): Previous 0.20%
- Italy | Business Confidence (Jun): Previous 99.7
- Spain | CPI EU Harmonised YoY (Jun P): Previous 0.20%
- United Kingdom | GDP QoQ (1Q F): GS 0.9% (3.2% yoy), consensus 0.80% (3.10% yoy), previous 0.80% (3.10% yoy)
- United Kingdom | GfK Consumer Confidence (Jun): Consensus 1, previous 0
- Japan | Natl CPI YoY (May): Consensus 3.70%, previous 3.40%
- South Korea | Industrial Production SA MoM (May): GS -0.90%, previous 0.10%
- South Korea | Industrial Production SA MoM (May): GS -0.90%, previous 0.10%
- Brazil | FGV Inflation IGPM MoM (Jun): GS -0.57% (6.43% yoy), consensus -0.56% (6.49% yoy), previous -0.13% (7.84% yoy)
- Chile | Minutes from MP Decision
- Also interesting: [DM] Canada Industrial Product Price; Euro area Industrial, Consumer, Business and Services Confidence; France PPI; Germany Regional CPIs; Spain Retail Sales; Norway Unemployment; Sweden Retail Sales and Trade Balance; Switzerland KOF leading indicator; Norway Unemployment; UK Services Output and CA; Japan Jobless Rate, Retail Trade and Sales; NZ Trade Balance and Overseas Merchandise Trade; South Korea CA; Taiwan Leading Index [EM] Hungary Unemployment; Mexico Trade Balance; Thailand Capacity Utilization and Manufacturing Production; Brazil PPI and Central Govt. Budget Balance
Finally, the key highlights visually from Bank of America:
Source: Goldman, DB, BofA
via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/T31c65 Tyler Durden