Moments ago the Commerce department reported Q2 GDP which blew estimates out of the water, printing at 4.0%, above the declining 3.0% consensus, as a result of a surge in Inventories and Fixed Investment, both of which added over 2.5% of the total print, while exports added another 1.23% to the GDP number. The full breakdown by component is shown below.
What is interesting is that the Commerce Department announced that as a result of incomplete June data, the biggest components of the GDP beat, Inventories and Trade, were estimated. In other words, assume that future revisions of Q2 GDP will be lower, not higher, as the actual data comes in, and especially as the CapEx data, which contrary to the GDP report, has not rebounded. Speaking of revisions, today the BEA also released its annual revision of all data from 1999 to Q1 2014, which made last quarter’s -2.9% print a more palatable -2.1%, in the process throwing everyone’s trendline calculations off as yet another GDP redefinition was implemented.
The chart of the original and revised data is shown below.
Here are some additional details via Bloomberg:
- 2Q personal consumption up 2.5% vs est. up 1.9% (range 1.5%-2.9%); prior revised to 1.2% from 1%
- Core PCE q/q 2% vs est. 1.9% (range 1.4%-2.3%)
- Gross private investment up 17% in 2Q after falling 6.9% in 1Q
- Residential up 7.5% after falling 5.3%
- Purchases of durable goods jumped 14%, most since 3Q 2009
- Corporate spending up 5.9% vs little changed q/q
- Inventory accumulation added 1.7ppts to GDP
And the quarterly breakdown between the original and revised data:
via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1Ayqs6f Tyler Durden