Last Thursday, as bond yields were cratering and the price on the TYZ4 soaring soaring, we made an explicit cautious observation in “A Bearish Sign For Treasurys?” that the latest incarnation of the immortal muppet-slayer, Tom Stolper, manifesting himself this time as Bank of America’s technician MacNeill Curry, decided to go from bearish on the 10 Year as he has been on and off since the start of the year, to bullish.
Specifically, we said that “with the 10Y yield plunging, BofA’s chief technician, which as is widely known is another words for “momentum chaser” who has over the past year been branded as the new coming of the legendary Tom Stolper thanks to the inverse-accuracy of his calls, has changed his tune, to wit: “the trend in yield is lower.” If there was something that could make us nervous about being long TSYs, this is it.”
And almost as if on demand, the 10 Year proceeded to tumble like a downhill rolling bag of bricks in the hours, not days, following this all too obvious top-tick.
But even more amusing, moments ago the same MacNeill Curry has flip flopped yet again and in a note, has just announced that BofA has been stopped out of its “long”
Stopped out of TYZ4 short as US 10yr yields break n/term support. However, more needs to be seen before turning bearish
US 10yr Treasury yields rose sharply overnight, breaking key support at 2.448%/124.30+ (Aug-21 bearish extremes) and stopping us out of our long in the process. However, it is too early to say that the medium term downtrend (begun at the Jan-02 high at 3.049%) has run its course. For this to be the case, bears need to see a sustained break of the pivotal 2.5m trendline at 2.476%. Until then the medium term downtrend remains intact
Translation: the coast is again clear to get back long the 10 Year. More importantly, once BofA turns “bearish’ on TYZ4, that will be the time to double down, go all-in and even take a few margin loans out in the process.
via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1vOmo0T Tyler Durden