Following last week’s holiday-shortened week, which was supposed to be quiet and peaceful and was anything but thanks to OPEC’s shocking announcement and a historic plunge in crude prices, we have yet another busy week of macroeconomic reports to look forward to.
DB’s quick roundup:
The highlight of the week is the payrolls report in the US at the end of the week. Kicking off this morning in Europe, we’ve got November flash manufacturing PMI’s in Spain, Italy and Greece to look forward to as well as the final read on France, Germany, and Euro-area numbers today. In terms of the former, the market is expecting a slight improvement in both Spain and Italy, but generally unchanged prints through the latter regions. Looking ahead to this afternoon in the US, the market is expecting a slight drop in the November ISM to 58 (vs. 59 previously) – although noting that it will remain at the higher end of its post-recession range.
There’s no shortage of central bank speak today, with ECB’s Costa and Mogherini speaking as well as the Fed’s Dudley and Fischer. Tuesday is a relatively quiet day data-wise in Europe, with just Euro-area PPI to look forward to, along with Spanish unemployment and the UK construction PMI. Across the pond, we are expecting vehicle sales data, construction spending as well as the NY ISM where the market is looking for a modest improvement. Perhaps of more interest, the Fed’s Yellen will be speaking in the evening so we will keep an eye out for anything of interest there.
We start Wednesday off in Asia, with both non-manufacturing and services PMI prints due out of China as well as the services and composite PMI readings for Japan. Closer to home, we’ve got a host of further services and composite PMI prints to keep an eye out for in Europe – covering Italy, France, Germany, Spain, UK and the Euro-area, as well as October retail sales for the latter where the market expects the yoy print to jump to +1.6% from +0.6% previously. In the US in the afternoon, we will get the ADP employment print which as always will provide some hints into Friday’s payrolls. DB’s Joe Lavorgna is forecasting a slightly more bullish 240k reading (vs. 224k market consensus), up from 230k previously. As well as the ADP print, we also get revisions to Q3 productivity/unit labour costs and the November non-manufacturing ISM survey. Also of note for Wednesday will be the release of the Beige Book in the US.
Thursday’s focus will be in Europe with just claims data in the US to look forward to. Away from the ECB meeting, we’ve got German and Euro-area retail PMI’s, as well as employment data in France. The end of the week brings the aforementioned payrolls report in the US. Before we get there however, we’ve got the leading index print in Japan expected first thing, followed by factory orders in Germany and industrial output in Spain. In terms of the payroll print, the market is looking for a +225k non-farm print whilst our US team has a +250k forecast. Our US colleagues noted that the employment component of the Richmond survey rose to a record high in November, boding well for both the non-manufacturing ISM and nonfarm payrolls print. In terms of unemployment, our colleagues expect the 5.8% unemployment rate to remain unchanged.
Rounding out the week, the Fed’s Fischer and Mester will be speaking on Friday.
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And a more detailed summary from Goldman:
In DMs, highlights of next week include US Nonfarm Payrolls and ISM Manufacturing, DM Manufacturing PMIs including US, Eurozone and Japan, MP Decisions in Australia, Canada, Eurozone and UK.
- [Monday] US ISM Manufacturing, DM Manufacturing PMIs including in US, Eurozone and Japan
- [Tuesday] Australia MP Decision (expect rates on hold)
- [Wednesday] Canada MP Decision, Eurozone and Australia GDP
- [Thursday] MP Decision in Eurozone (expect rates on hold) and UK (expect rates on hold)
- [Friday] US Nonfarm Payrolls (expect 220K), Unemployment (expect 5.8%) and Trade Balance, IP in Denmark, Norway, Spain and Sweden.
In EMs, highlights of next week include MP Decisions in India, Poland, Brazil and Mexico, EM Manufacturing PMIs including China, Chile Minutes.
- [Monday] EM Manufacturing PMIs including in China, CPI in Indonesia, Thailand and Peru
- [Tuesday] India MP Decision (expect rates on hold), Brazil IP
- [Wednesday] MP Decisions in Poland (expect rates on hold) and Brazil (expect 25bp hike), Chile Minutes
- [Thursday] South Korea GDP
- [Friday] Mexico MP Decision (expect rates on hold)
FULL CALENDAR
Monday, December 1
- Events: Speeches by Fed’s Dudley, ECB’s Costa, RBNZ’s Wheeler.
- United States | [MAP 5] ISM Manufacturing (Nov): GS 58.0, consensus 58.2, previous 59
- Denmark | Danish PMI Survey (Nov): Previous 51.7
- Italy | GDP WDA YoY (3Q F): Previous -0.40% (-0.10% qoq)
- DMs | Manufacturing PMI (Nov): United States (consensus 55, previous 54.7), Canada (previous 55.3), Eurozone (GS 50.4, consensus 50.4, previous 50.6), France (GS 47.6, consensus 47.6, previous 48.5), Germany (GS 50.0, consensus 50.0, previous 51.4), Italy (previous 49.0), Norway (previous 50.7), Spain (previous 52.6), Switzerland (previous 55.3), Sweden (previous 52.1), United Kingdom (GS 53.0, previous 53.2), Japan (previous 52.1)
- EMs | Manufacturing PMI (Nov): China (GS 50.4, consensus 50.5, previous 50.8), China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Consensus 50, previous 50), India (previous 51.6), Indonesia (previous 49.2), South Korea (Previous 48.7), Taiwan (Previous 52), Czech Republic (previous 54.4), Hungary (previous 54.9), Poland (previous 51.2), Russia (previous 50.3), Turkey (previous 51.5), Brazil (previous 49.1), Mexico (previous 53.3)
- Indonesia | CPI YoY (Nov): Consensus 6.80%, previous 4.80% (0.47% mom)
- Thailand | CPI YoY (Nov): Consensus 1.30%, previous 1.50% (-0.10% mom)
- South Africa | [MAP 5] Kagiso Manufacturing PMI (Nov): Previous (r) 50.1
- Peru | CPI YoY (Nov): GS 0.00% (3.30% mom), previous 3.09% (0.38% mom)
- Also interesting: [DM] UK Money Supply; Japan Vehicle Sales and Capital Spending; Australia TD Securities Inflation; New Zealand Terms of Trade Index [EM] Retail Sales in Hong Kong; Trade Balance in Indonesia, South Korea and Brazil; Mexico Remittances and IMEF Manufacturing Index
Tuesday, December 2
- Events: Speech by ECB’s Stournaras.
- United Kingdom | Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI (Nov): Previous 61.4
- Australia | MP Decision: We expect rates on hold (Cash Rate Target at 2.50%, in line with consensus). We will be looking for signs that the RBA is more convicted on the non-mining recovery and/or more worried about commodity prices, the AUD, and external risks
- Singapore | [MAP 2] Purchasing Managers Index (Nov): Previous 51.9
- India | MP Decision: We expect rates on hold (RBI Repurchase Rate at 8.00%, in line with consensus). Since the last policy meeting on September 30, when the RBI mentioned risks to its January 2016 inflation target as being to the upside, headline inflation has significantly surprised to the downside. The October print was 5.5% compared to the RBI’s projection of 7.2% as per the central point of the CPI fan chart. Inflation has been lower across the board, with food, fuel, and core inflation coming off. Meanwhile, activity data has been softer than expected, and our current activity indicator has fallen from over 8% in July to below 7% in September. Moreover, oil prices have fallen more than US$20/bbl since the last policy meeting. While these have increased the probability of a rate cut to about 30% in our view, the RBI may wait for more data due to sticky inflation expectations, uncertainty about the sustainability of the current positive commodity shock, and the move to the 6% Jan 2016 target. We therefore expect the RBI to pause in December but cut by 25bps each in February and April, to bring the repo rate down to 7.5% from 8% currently. We expect the RBI’s tone to be more dovish than at the September policy meeting, and flag that risks to the January 2016 targets are more balanced. We also expect it to reduce its forecast trajectory of inflation.
- South Korea | CPI YoY (Nov): GS 1.00%, consensus 1.20%, previous 1.20% (-0.30% mom)
- Brazil | [MAP 4] Industrial Production YoY (Oct): GS (0.30% mom), previous -2.10% (-0.20% mom)
- Also interesting: [DM] US Vehicle Sales, Construction Spending and ISM New York; Eurozone PPI; Sweden CA; Japan Monetary Base; Australia Building Approvals and CA; New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price [EM] Romania PPI
Wednesday, December 3
- Events: U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book
- United States | [MAP 3] ADP Employment Change (Nov): GS 190K, consensus 226K, previous 230K
- United States | Nonfarm Productivity (3Q F): GS 2.5%, consensus 1.80%, previous 2.00%
- United States | Unit Labor Costs (3Q F): GS -1.4%, consensus 0.50%, previous 0.30%
- Canada | MP Decision
- Eurozone | [MAP 5] GDP SA QoQ (3Q P): Previous 0.20% (0.80% yoy)
- Switzerland | GDP YoY (3Q): Previous 0.60% (0.00% qoq)
- Australia | [MAP 5] GDP SA QoQ (3Q): GS 0.5%, previous 0.50% (3.10% yoy)
- DMs | Composite PMI (Nov): US (previous 56.1), Eurozone (GS 51.4, consensus 51.4, previous 52.1), France (GS 48.4, consensus 48.4, previous 48.2), Germany (GS 52.1, consensus 52.1, previous 53.9), Italy (previous 50.4), Spain (previous 55.5), United Kingdom (GS 56.3, previous 55.8), Japan (previous 49.5)
- DMs | Services PMI (Nov): US (previous 56.3), Eurozone (GS 51.3, consensus 51.3, previous 52.3), France (GS 48.8, consensus 48.8, previous 48.3), Germany (GS 52.1, consensus 52.1, previous 54.4), Italy (previous 50.8), Spain (previous 55.9), Sweden (previous 57.7), United Kingdom (GS 57.0, previous 56.2), Japan (previous 48.7)
- EMs | Composite PMI (Nov): China (Previous 51.7), India (previous 51), Russia (previous 49.1), Brazil (previous 48.4), South Africa (previous 52.7)
- EMs | Services PMI (Nov): China (Previous 52.9), India (previous 50), Russia (previous 47.4), Brazil (previous 48.2)
- China | Non-manufacturing PMI (Nov): Previous 53.8
- Hong Kong | HSBC Hong Kong PMI (Nov): Previous 47.7
- Hungary | [MAP 5] GDP NSA YoY (3Q F): Previous 3.20% (0.50% qoq)
- Poland | MP Decision: We expect rates on hold (Base Rate at 2.0%) unchanged since the 50bp cut in October. We also expect the Polish MPC to cut the base rate by an additional 50bps by end-2015H1, and for the MPC to take a cautiously dovish tone and keep the door open to further easing, but without committing to specific rate guidance or timing. In our view, this cautiousness of the MPC, as well as a deep division in views, remain the key upside risks to the rate forecast
- Romania | GDP YoY (3Q P): Previous 3.20% (1.90% qoq)
- Turkey | CPI YoY (Nov): GS 9.5%, previous 8.96% (8.96% mom)
- Brazil | MP Decision: We expect a 25bp hike (Selic Rate to 11.50%, in line with consensus)
- Chile | Minutes from MP Decision
- Also interesting: [DM] US MBA Mortgage Applications, ISM Non-Manf. Composite and Nonfarm Productivity; Eurozone Retail Sales [EM] Hungary Trade Balance and Retail Sales; Colombia Exports
Thursday, December 4
- Events: Speeches by BOJ’s Sato and ECB’s Coeure.
- Eurozone | MP Decision: We expect rates on hold (ECB Main Refinancing Rate at 0.05%), and we do not expect further specific measures to be announced. That said, President Draghi will likely reinforce the dovish stance adopted in his Frankfurt speech last Friday.
- United Kingdom | MP Decision: We expect rates on hold (Bank Rate at 0.50%)
- South Korea | [MAP 5] GDP YoY (3Q F): Consensus 3.20% (0.9.% qoq), previous 3.20% (0.90% qoq)
- Also interesting: [DM] US Initial Jobless and Continuing Claims; France ILO Unemployment Rate; Retail PMI in France and Italy; Australia Trade Balance and Retail Sales [EM] Indonesia Consumer Confidence; Brazil Vehicle Sales
Friday, December 5
- Events: Speech by ECB’s Weidmann
- United States | [MAP 5] Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov): GS 220K, consensus 228K, previous 214K
- United States | [MAP 5] Unemployment Rate (Nov): GS 5.8%, consensus 5.70%, previous 5.80%
- United States | [MAP 2] Trade Balance (Oct): GS -$42.0B, consensus -$41.0B, previous -$43.0B
- United States | Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Nov): GS 0.2%, consensus 0.20%, previous 0.10% (2.00% yoy)
- United States | Factory Orders (Oct): GS 0.3%, consensus -0.10%, previous -0.60%
- Denmark | Industrial Production MoM (Oct): Previous -4.60%
- Norway | Industrial Production MoM (Oct): Previous 4.40%
- Spain | Industrial Output SA YoY (Oct): Previous 1.00%
- Sweden | Industrial Production NSA YoY (Oct): Previous -4.30% (-1.10% mom)
- Philippines | CPI YoY (Nov): Previous 4.30% (0.10% mom)
- Taiwan | CPI YoY (Nov): Consensus 1.10%, previous 1.10%
- Hungary | [MAP 4] Industrial Production WDA YoY (Oct P): GS 4.0%, previous 5.20% (2.70% mom)
- Ukraine | CPI YoY (Nov): Previous 19.80% (2.40% mom)
- Brazil | IBGE Inflation IPCA YoY (Nov): GS 6.62% (0.57% mom), consensus 6.63% (0.55% mom), previous 6.59% (0.42% mom)
- Chile | [MAP 5] Economic Activity YoY (Oct): GS 1.30%, previous (r) 1.40% (-0.20% mom)
- Colombia | CPI YoY (Nov): GS 3.7% (0.17% mom), consensus 3.51% (0.03% mom), previous 3.29% (0.16% mom)
- Mexico | MP Decision: We expect rates on hold (Overnight Rate at 3.00%, in line with consensus)
- Also interesting: [DM] US Consumer Credit; Canada Unemployment; Germany Factory Orders; Japan Leading and Coincident Indexes [EM] Malaysia Trade Balance; Philippines Bank Lending; Czech Republic Retail Sales; Mexico Consumer Confidence
via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1B5nKqx Tyler Durden