Empire Fed Crashes To Almost 2-Year Lows, Biggest Miss In 4 Years

Must be the weather, because lower gas prices is unequivocally good for everyone, right? The Empire Fed manufacturing survey collapsed to -3.6 – its lowest since January 2013, missing expectations of a rebound to 12.4 by the most in 4 years. New orders plunged and unfilled orders utterly collapsed from -7.45 to -23.96 – “unambiguously bad.” The timing of this US macro data collapse could not be better for The Fed of course… who need an excuse to keep lower-for-longer on the table.

Empire Fed crashes…

As the report notes,

For the first time in nearly two years, the general business conditions index signaled a decline in business activity for New York manufacturers. The index retreated fourteen points to -3.6 in December, with 19 percent of respondents reporting that conditions had improved over the month and 23 percent reporting that conditions had worsened.

Overall, readings for the headline index during the fourth quarter of 2014 mark a significant downshift in activity from the levels seen during the five-month period from May through September.

The new orders index fell eleven points to -2.0, indicating a small decline in orders, and the shipments index dropped twelve points to -0.2— a sign that shipments were flat. Th unfilled orders index plummetedseventeen points to -24.0. The delivery time index drifted down to -14.6, suggesting that delivery times were shorter, and the inventories index fell to -11.5, pointing to lower inventory levels.

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The timing of this US macro data collapse could not be better for The Fed of course… who need an excuse to keep lower-for-longer on the table. Who could hacve seen that coming?