In the traditional post payrolls data lull, we’re kicking off what’s set to be a much quieter week for data this week with just German factory orders data and the latest Sentix investor confidence reading for the Euro area this morning. There is nothing of note due to be released in the US on Monday.
Tuesday morning is all about China where the April CPI (no change to 2.3% yoy expected) and PPI data will be released. Following that in Europe we’ll get the German trade data for March along with the latest industrial production print. In France we’ll also get the latest industrial production data as well as the Bank of France business sentiment print, while later on in the UK the March trade balance will be released. In the US on Tuesday the main focus will be on the March wholesale inventories and trade sales report, along with the NFIB small business optimism survey and JOLTS job openings for March.
Wednesday kicks off in Japan with the leading index print. That’s before we get the latest industrial production report for the UK, while in the US on Wednesday the April Monthly Budget Statement is the sole release. We’re starting Thursday in Japan again with the latest trade data. In Europe the main focus will be on the Euro area industrial production report, while France’s CPI print for April will also be released. The big focus will be on the UK however with the BoE meeting with the inflation report also due to be released.
Over in the US on Thursday we’ll get initial jobless claims data as well as the import price index reading.
The bulk of the big releases are reserved for the end of the week on Friday. In Germany we’ll get the final revisions to the April CPI report, while the preliminary reading for Q1 GDP will also be out. Wages data in France will also be released before we get the preliminary Q1 GDP report for the Euro area (expected at +0.6% qoq). In the US the big focus will be on April retail sales which are expected to have advanced +0.9% mom at the headline, while the April PPI print, March business inventories and finally the first read for the May University of Michigan consumer sentiment print will also be released.
Away from the data there is more Fedspeak for us to digest this week. We’ll hear from both Evans and Kashkari today, Rosengren and George on Thursday and Williams on Friday. The ECB’s Constancio is also scheduled to speak this morning. Earnings season is beginning to wind down meanwhile. We’ve got just 20 S&P 500 companies due to release their quarterlies including Macy’s and Walt Disney. In Europe there are 90 Stoxx 600 companies due to report however including more of the Banks.
The full detail from Goldman Sachs
Monday, May 9
- 5:10 AM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans will be participating in a panel at the International Financial Services Forum in London. Recently, President Evans remarked that inflation data are likely to heavily inform the Fed’s decision to raise interest rates.
- 10:00 AM Labor Market Conditions Index, April (consensus -1.0, last -2.1): Consensus expects the Labor Market Conditions Index to increase slightly to -1.0 from -2.1 previously.
- 1:00 PM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari will be speaking at the Economic Club of Minnesota. Q&A is expected. Recently, President Kashkari has suggested the Fed is unlikely to aggressively raise interest rates.
Tuesday, May 10
- 06:00 AM NFIB small business optimism index, April (consensus 93.1, last 92.6): Consensus expects the small business optimism index to increase slightly in April.
- 10:00 JOLTS job openings, March (consensus 5,400k, last 5,445k): Job openings edged down in February following an upward revision to January. Consensus expects job openings to move down slightly in March.
- 10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, March (consensus +0.1%, last -0.5%): Consensus expects wholesale inventories to edge up slightly in March.
Wednesday, May 11
- 02:00 PM Monthly Budget Statement, April (consensus +$110bn, last +$156.7bn): Consensus expects a federal budget surplus of +$110bn in April.
Thursday, May 12
- 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended May 7 (consensus 270k, last 274k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended April 30 (consensus 2,120k, last 2,121k): Consensus expects both initial jobless claims and continuing claims to move down slightly from the previous week. Last week, initial claims rose to 274k and the four-week moving average edged up to 258k. However, we suspect that some of the increase may be due to seasonal effects related to spring break holidays and temporary auto plant shutdowns.
- 08:30 AM Import Price Index, April (consensus +0.6%, last +0.2%): Consensus expects the import price index to rise 0.6% in April, a faster pace than the 0.2% increase in March.
- 11:00 AM Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester will give a speech on monetary policy in Reichenau Island, Germany.
- 2:15 PM Kansas City Fed President George (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George will give a speech on the economy in Albuquerque, New Mexico. At the April FOMC meeting, President George dissented, citing her preference to raise the target range for the federal funds rate.
Friday, May 13
- 8:30 AM Retail sales, April (GS +0.9%, consensus +0.8%, last -0.3%); Retail sales ex-auto, April (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.2%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, April (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.1%); Core retail sales, April (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.1%): We expect core retail sales to rebound to a +0.4% month-over-month pace after a weak print in the advanced report last month. Higher gasoline prices and sales last month, in addition to stronger auto sales, likely will boost headline retail sales as well.
- 08:30 AM PPI final demand, April (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.1%); PPI ex-food and energy, April (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.1%, last -0.1%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, April (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.1%, last flat): We expect core PPI (ex-food, energy, and trade) to edge up +0.1% in April after a softer-than-expected report in March. Headline PPI likely rose +0.3% due to higher energy prices.
- 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment (preliminary), May (GS 90.5, consensus 89.5, last 89.0): We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to improve in the May preliminary estimate, following last month’s modest decline.
- 7:00 PM San Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams will give a speech on the economy in Sacramento, California. Q&A is expected. Last week, President Williams suggested that if the U.S. economy continues to show improvement, two or three interest rate increases would be reasonable this year.
And the full week charted courtesy of BofA:
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