There’s No Place Called “TransNationalProfessionalistan”

Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

Under the relentless thrust of accelerating over-population and increasing over-organization, and by means of ever more effective methods of mind-manipulation, the democracies will change their nature; the quaint old forms—elections, parliaments, Supreme Courts and all the rest—will remain. The underlying substance will be a new kind of non-violent totalitarianism. All the traditional names, all the hallowed slogans will remain exactly what they were in the good old days. Democracy and freedom will be the theme of every broadcast and editorial—but Democracy and freedom in a strictly Pickwickian sense. Meanwhile the ruling oligarchy and its highly trained elite of soldiers, policemen, thought-manufacturers and mind-manipulators will quietly run the show as they see fit.

 

– From the post: Brave New World Revisited…Key Excerpts and My Summary

Megan McArdle has penned an extraordinary article in the wake of the Brexit referendum. Her words represent the sort of deep, thoughtful reflection Remain-supporting pundits and journalists should be demonstrating at the moment, but clearly aren’t. Indeed, as tends to be the case with elites during moments of peak corruption and societal decay, their collective heads are too far up their own assess to see what’s right in front of them.

Unfortunately for them, these myriad mean-spirited temper tantrums will have precisely the opposite effect of their desired outcome. Their panicked rants will simply put their true colors on public display for all to see, further propelling the dreaded populists sentiments they wish to stifle. This will ultimately lead to a far more serious revolt against all things status quo.

Megan’s Bloomberg piece represents a measured and honest response to Brexit, and the entire thing is one home run paragraph after the other. Here are a few excerpts:

The inability of those elites to grapple with the rich world’s populist moment was in full display on social media last night. Journalists and academics seemed to feel that they had not made it sufficiently clear that people who oppose open borders are a bunch of racist rubes who couldn’t count to 20 with their shoes on, and hence will believe any daft thing they’re told. Given how badly this strategy had just failed, this seemed a strange time to be doubling down. But perhaps, like the fellow I once saw lose a packet by betting on 17 for 20 straight turns of the roulette wheel, they reasoned that the recent loss actually makes a subsequent victory more likely, since the number has to come up sometime.

 

Or perhaps they were just unable to grasp what I noted in a column last week: that nationalism and place still matter, and that elites forget this at their peril. A lot people do not view their country the way some elites do: as though the nation were something like a rental apartment — a nice place to live, but if there are problems, or you just fancy a change, you’ll happily swap it for a new one.

 

In many ways, members of the global professional class have started to identify more with each other than they have with the fellow residents of their own countries. Witness the emotional meltdown many American journalists have been having over Brexit.

 

Well, here’s one journalist who is not having a meltdown. I think Brexit will be somewhat costly — if you want to understand just how complicated the separation will be, take a gander at the primer that the law firm Dechert put up for its clients — but it’s not going to destroy the country or start a war, so if Britain wants out, then … bon voyage. I can certainly understand why my British friends who supported Remain are upset, and why people in other countries who are actually going to experience long-term effects from this decision are unhappy—if I were a Pole, I’d be worried as heck. But I don’t take it personally.

 

A lot of my professional colleagues seemed to, and the dominant tone framed this as a blow against the enlightened “us” and the beautiful world we are building, struck by a plague of morlocks who had crawled out of their hellish subterranean world to attack our impending utopia. You could also, I’d argue, see this sentiment in the reaction of global markets, which was grossly out of proportion to the actual economic damage that is likely to be done by Brexit. I mean, yes, the British pound took a pounding, and no surprise. But why did this so roil markets for the Mexican peso? Did traders fear that the impact on the global marmite supply was going to unsettle economies everywhere?

 

Well, no. This was a reflection of sudden uncertainty, not a prediction about the global economic future. But the sheer extent of the carnage made me wonder if one of the uncertainties traders were newly contemplating was when the morlocks are going to be coming for us outward-looking professional types with pitchforks.

 

The answer to these uncertainties, I submit, is not to simply keep doing what we’re doing. There’s a lot of appeal to the internationalist idea that building superstates will tamp down on war. But there’s a reason that the 19th century architects of superstates (now known simply as “states”) spent so much time and effort nurturing national identity in the breasts of their populace. Surrendering traditional powers and liberties to a distant state is a lot easier if you think of that state as run by “people like me,” not “strangers from another place,” and particularly if that surrender is done in the name of empowering “people who are like me” in our collective dealings with other, farther “strangers who aren’t.”

 

Elites missed this because they’re the exception — the one group that has a transnational identity. And in fact the arguments for the EU look a lot like the old arguments for national states: a project that will empower people like us against the scary people who aren’t.

 

Unhappily for the elites, there is no “Transnationalprofessionalistan” to which they can move. (And who would trim the hedges, make the widgets, and staff the nursing homes if there were?) They have to live in physical places, filled with other people whose loyalties are to a particular place and way of life, not an abstract ideal, or the joys of rootless cosmopolitanism.

Perfectly put. If the “elites” were half as smart as they think they are, they would reflect deeply on everything Megan wrote and change tact. Naturally, they will not do that. Why? Because they are the infallible “experts!” A unique offshoot of humanity inhabiting a realm one small step removed from divinity. If they could only do away with those meddling unwashed masses the world would be perfect. For them.

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Man Critically Injured In Central Park Explosion

A man was critically injured according to ABC Eyewitness News shortly before noon on Sunday by some sort of explosive device, possibly a firework device. The explosion took place inside Central Park near the Fifth Avenue and East 62nd Street area, ABC and WCBS880 add. EMS confirms at 10:53 a.m, that they received a call of a major injury at that location. The victim is being aided at the scene and has yet to be transported.

WCBS 880’s Sophia Hall reported one victim suffered an injured leg and is being treated by emergency responders. An eyewitness told CBS2 that a man was climbing a rock structure and stepped on something that “exploded.” The extent of the victim’s injuries is unknown at this time.

A reporter said the blast, possibly related to fireworks, was heard outside Elie Wiesel’s funeral. The Holocaust survivor and Nobel Peace Prize laureate died Saturday at the age of 87.

 

There is a heavy police presence at the scene. The bomb squad has also been called in.

 

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This Is “Worrisome”: The Probability Of A US Recession Surges To 60%, Deutsche Calculates

Ever since the US manufacturing economy entered a recession over half a year ago as a result of the collapse in capex spending in the energy sector and the soaring layoffs in shale, the strawman used by the economic apologists to “justify” that the broader economy has not followed in such recessionary footsteps, has been the frequent trotting out of the yield curve, which simply because it is still curved upward in nominal terms (if flattening recently to levels not seen since 2007), is presented as “evidence” that the US is still growing.

Just one problem: as Bank of America first explained in February, when one adjusts the curve to account for trillions in unprecedented liquidity support by the Fed which is skewing the message sent by the 2s10s (for example by looking at the 3m5s OIS adjusted curve), the curve is already inverted.

Over the weekend, following the latest collapse in long-term yields to new all time lows, Deutsche Bank looked at what implied recession odds are if one once-again adjust for Fed intervention. What it found, in the words of Deutsche Bank’s Dominic Konstam, is “worrisome.”

From Deutsche Bank:

Since the UK referendum the US yield curve has flattened to new post-crisis lows. The 3m10y spread is now 115 bps compared to 210 bps at the start of the year, and the 2y10y spread is just 85 bps versus 120 bps on January 1. 

 

This relentless flattening of the curve is worrisome. Given the historical tendency of a very flat or inverted yield curve to precede a US recession, the odds of the next economic downturn are rising. 

 

In our probit model, the probability of a recession within the next 12 months has jumped to 60 percent, the highest it’s been since August 2008. The model adjusts the 3m10y spread by the historically low level of short rates and it suggests that on an adjusted basis the curve has already appeared to be inverted for some time.

 

The yield curve had successfully signaled the last two recessions when the model output rose above 70 percent. If 10y yields rally to 1.00 percent and the 3m rate is unchanged, the implied recession probability from our model will reach that number. At current market levels, the market is just 40 bps from that distinct possibility.

In other words, while the Fed is terrified of killing the recovery by “tightening” financial conditions, all that will take for the next recession to arrive is for the Fed and its central bank peers to ease just that much more to send the long end 40 bps lower, something which as we reported yesterday may happen even sooner than expected, now that pension funds are ready to throw in the towel and start buying 10Y and 30Y Tsys with wreckless (sic) abandon.

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Chuck Todd To Hillary: “Were You Given An Indication That No FBI Charges Will Be Filed Against You?”

Following Hillary Clinton’s voluntary interview with the FBI Saturday, Clinton gave an interview to NBC’s Chuck Todd to discuss some aspects of the case, as well as how Hillary felt about the fact the Bill met with the Attorney General during an ongoing investigation.

 

Todd asks how Clinton would describe the interview with the FBI (which must not be called an interrogation: after all she had no less than five of her own lawyers “volunteer” to be present during the “interview”) after hearing that it was “civil and businesslike.” Ironically Clinton said she was eager to give the interview, even though it took Bill’s heavily publicized meeting with Loretta Lynch to force the issue.

“Well it was both, it was something I had offered to do since last August, I’ve been eager to do it and I was pleased to have the opportunity to assist the department in bringing its review to a conclusion.

On why Clinton believes no laws were broken by using a private server, as expected Clinton gave the same answer we have heard frequently over the course of the investigation.

Let me just repeat what I have repeated for many months now, I never received nor sent any material that was marked classified.

After Clinton said that there weren’t going to be any further comments on the matter, Todd shifts the conversation to Bill’s allegedly coincidental meeting with US Attorney General Loretta Lynch at an airport in Phoenix. Todd asked what Hillary’s initial reaction was upon learning the news.

Well I learned about it in the news, and it was a short, chance meeting at a airport tarmac. Both of their planes as I understand it were landing on the same tarmac at about the same time. The Attorney General’s husband was there, they said hello, they talked about grand kids, which is very much on our minds these days. Golf, their mutual friend former Attorney General Janet Reno, it was purely social.

Todd then asks Hillary if she views what Bill did as inappropriate. Clinton reiterated that it was a chance meeting, and she actually laughed at the assumption that anything related to the investigation would be discussed.

“Well it was a short, chance meeting that occurred and they did not discuss the Department of Justice’s review. And I know that some nonetheless have viewed the meeting in a different light, and both the Attorney General and my husband said they would not do it again. The bottom line for me is I respect the professionalism and integrity of the officials at the Department of Justice handling this process.”

 

I think hindsight is 20/20, both the Attorney General and my husband have said that they wouldn’t do it again even though it was from all accounts that I have heard and seen an exchange of pleasantries.”

Hillary was then asked the dreaded Donald Trump question regarding how it feels that voters believe Trump is more honest.

“When you’ve been in the eye of the tornado for as long as I have, I know that there’s a lot of incoming fire, I accept that. I’m going to keep standing up and talking about what I have done and what I will do.”

But the punchline, and by far the most important moment of the interview, one which would confirm there is indeed collusion between the DOJ and Hillary and that “the fix is in”, is whether the FBI had  advised Hillary that no charges would be filed against her.

Recall that overnight CNN reported that within the next two weeks or so, the expectation is there will be an announcement of no charges being brought against Clinton so long as no evidence of wrongdoing emerges from her interview with the FBI, sources familiar with the investigation told CNN.”

Rounding up all up, Todd said he’s hearing reports that no charges will be brought, and asks Clinton if any indication was given that no charges would be filed. Hillary, clearly aware a positive response would confirm all suspicion about a captured department of justice,  didn’t answer.

Chuck Todd: “There is some news reports out there that indicate that no charges may be brought against you in a final decision in a couple of weeks.  Were you given that indication today that no charges would be filed and are you confident that no charges would be filed?”

 

Clinton: “Chuck, I am not going to comment on the process. I have no knowledge, any timeline is entirely up to the department.

Below is the full interview:

As far as how Bill Clinton is handling the situation, the AP reports that upon reflecting on the event, Bill wouldn’t do it again – something we seem to recall hearing before.

From AP

On Saturday, an aide to the former president said in a statement that Clinton’s conversation with Lynch was unplanned and entirely social in nature. But Clinton now recognizes how others could take another view and agrees with Lynch that he wouldn’t do it again.

 

The aide wasn’t authorized to be named and spoke about Bill Clinton’s reaction to the controversy on condition of anonymity.

* * *

How does Hillary’s presidential opponent feel about everything? Well, as NBC News puts it, Donald Trump was incredulous over Bill Clinton’s meeting with Lynch, saying “He opened up Pandora’s box.”

Trump did take to Twitter to offer a few thoughts however, saying that it is now impossible for the FBI not to recommend criminal charges.

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“It Was Like An Earthquake” – Over 91 Killed After Two ISIS Suicide Bombings Rip Through Baghdad

Just days after Iraqi forces scored a major victory against the Islamic State which was dislodged from its stronghold of Falluja, an hour’s drive west of Baghdad, ISIS struck back when at least 95 people were killed Sunday in two massive suicide bombings in the Iraqi capital, including a large-scale attack that killed 86 people, among them 15 children, in a central shopping district.

As AP reports, the bombings demonstrated the extremists’ ability to mount significant attacks despite major battlefield losses, including the city of Fallujah, which was declared “fully liberated” from IS just over a week ago. Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi had ordered the offensive after a series
of deadly bombings in Baghdad, saying Falluja served as a launchpad for
such attacks on the capital. However, bombings have continued. 

The deadliest attack took place in the central Karada district of Baghdad, where a suicide bomber blew up his explosives-laded refrigerator pickup truck outside a crowded shopping center, killing at least 95 people and wounding up to 170 others, according to a police officer. He said the dead included 15 children, 10 women and six policemen.

 

The suicide bomber struck shortly after midnight, when families and young people were out on the streets in the central district of Karrada, after breaking their daylight fast for the holy month of Ramadan. Most of the victims were inside a multi-story shopping and amusement mall, where dozens burned to death or suffocated, officials said.

“It was like an earthquake,” said Karim Sami, a 35-year-old street vendor. “I wrapped up my goods and was heading home when I saw a fire ball with a thunderous bombing. I was so scared to go back and started to make phone calls to my friends, but none answered,” the father of three added. He said that one of his friends had been killed, another was wounded and one was still missing.

As expected, within hours, IS claimed responsibility for the bombing in a statement posted online, saying they had deliberately targeted Shiite Muslims. 

At the scene, firefighters and civilians were seen carrying the dead away, their bodies wrapped in blankets and sheets. Smoke billowed from the shopping center, which was surrounded by the twisted and burned wreckage of cars and market stalls. A group of women were sitting on the pavement, crying for their loved ones.

In the second attack, an improvised explosive device went off in Baghdad’s northern Shaab area, killing 5 people and wounding 16, another police officer said. No group claimed responsibility for the attack, but it bore the hallmarks of IS militants who often target commercial districts and Shiite areas. Medical officials confirmed the casualty figures.

The high death toll made it the second deadliest attack in the capital this year. On May 11, IS militants carried out three car bombings in Baghdad, killing 93 people.

Hours after the bombing, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and lawmakers visited the blast site, however they got a less then warm welcome. Clips posted on Twitter, showed an angry crowd, with people calling al-Abadi a “thief” and shouting at his convoy. Eyewitness said the crowd pelted the al-Abadi’s car with rocks, shoes and jerry cans.

 

Until the government launched its Fallujah operation, the prime minister had faced growing social unrest and anti-government protests sparked, in part, by popular anger at the lack of security in the capital.

As reported in late April, Baghdad’s highly-fortified Green Zone — which houses government buildings and diplomatic missions — was stormed twice by anti-government protesters. In Karada civilians expressed their frustration at the government’s failure to secure the capital.

“We are in a state of war, and these places are targeted. The security can’t focus on the war (against IS) and forget Baghdad,” Sami, the street vendor, said.

The Islamic State still controls Iraq’s second largest city of Mosul as well as significant patches of territory in the country’s north and west. At the height of the extremist group’s power in 2014, IS rendered nearly a third of the country out of government control. Now, the militants are estimated to control only 14 percent of Iraqi territory, according to the office of Iraq’s prime minister.

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After Brexit, This Will Be Next

QE

You have probably already read dozens of articles and op-ed’s about the Brexit vote and its impact on the political landscape in Europe. The markets completely crashed ‘the day after’ but quickly regained their composure and the losses of 5-8% at the opening bell were quickly erased.

Brexit 3

Source: Stockcharts.com

Now, just one week later, most indices are trading at higher levels than right before the Brexit, and everything seems to be forgiven and forgotten, especially as nor David Cameron nor the potential future prime minister seem to be keen to trigger the now-famous Article 50 in the European Treaty. This means it’s very unlikely a ‘Brexit’ will be completed before the end of this decade.

And that’s exactly what financial markets used to hate; the simple fact there’s absolutely no visibility about how the European block will look like just one or three years from now will definitely have a negative impact, and that’s also exactly what the IMF has been warning for. IMF-boss Lagarde called the potential Brexit (it’s still just a chance, nothing has been effectively decided yet) an ‘immediate threat to the world economy’ and ‘putting the UK on the brink of a recession’. (yes, she did use the R-word)

She also warned the recovery from the Global Financial Crisis is going way too slow and is too fragile’, and whereas this sort of message would be seen as bad news in any world dominated by common sense, the markets quickly became optimistic again, as the rate hikes will now be completely off the table whilst another round of Quantitative Easing is back on that same table.

In a relatively long working paper, released by the Bank of England, Mark Carney tries to soften the blow by explaining how well-capitalized the British Banks are, as the capital requirements are now ten times as strict compared to before the financial crisis in 2008.

Brexit 1

Source: Bank of England

However, the uncertainty regarding the economic policy in the UK hasn’t been this high in the past two decades. Even during the Global Financial Crisis and Euro-crises the uncertainty was lower than what we’re seeing now, as you can see on the previous image.  The uncertainty will cause consumers to start hoarding more cash instead of deploying it in the market. Again from the Bank of England:

‘As a result of increased uncertainty and tighter financial conditions, UK households could defer consumption and firms delay investment, lowering labour demand and causing unemployment to rise. Through financial market and confidence channels, there are also risks of adverse spillovers to the global economy. Over the coming weeks, the Bank will consider a host of other measures and policies to promote monetary and financial stability.’

BRexit 2

Source: Stockcharts.com

Reading between the lines, you can expect the Bank of England starting a substantial program of Quantitative Easing to calm the rattled markets, and that’s the main (and probably only) reason why the main indices are currently trading higher (the FTSE 100 is trading almost 3% higher than before the surprising leave-vote) than right before the Brexit. The yield on the 10-year UK Gilt’s and even the 10 year rate on the US treasuries have reached decade-lows, indicating the market is expecting the interest rates to go down, rather than to go up.

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Gold, Silver Best Performing Assets In H1, 2016 – Up 26% and 38%

Gold, Silver Best Performing Assets In H1, 2016 – Up 26% and 38%

Gold and silver are the best performing assets in H1, 2016 and saw gains of 26% and 38% respectively. They were the best performing assets prior to Brexit and they are the best performing assets since Brexit. Gold and silver are up 6% and 11% respectively since the seismic Brexit vote led to turmoil on global markets.

SIlver_gold_YTD_2016
Market Performance, H1, 2016 (Finviz.com)
 

Global stocks had a torrid first half with European and Asian stocks coming under severe selling pressure. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell 10.4%. The Nikkei was down a whopping 17%, while the Shanghai A shares was down by even more – nearly 20 percent. U.S. shares remained elevated – largely due to continuing zero percent interest policies (ZIRP) by the Federal Reserve – contrary to all the speculative, nonsense talk of the Fed rising rates.

Gold and silver made gains due to continuing ultra loose monetary policies, diminished U.S. rate-increase expectations, worries about global economic growth, both U.S. and global geopolitical concerns and turmoil in markets at the start of Q1 and again at the end of Q2.

The UK decision to leave the EU has exacerbated these risks and highlighted them for complacent western speculators and investors who seemed blissfully unaware of the growing geopolitical and macroeconomic risks.

The case for gold and silver was already bullish prior to Brexit. Brexit is the “icing on the cake” and means that the fundamentals for gold and silver are arguably as good now as they have were in the early 1970s and the early 2000s.

The smart money knows this and this is seen in the likes of Soros, Dalio, Druckenmiller and many of the world’s largest financial institutions and indeed insurance companies allocating to the financial insurance that is gold in recent months.

While Brexit is “icing on the cake” for the precious metals, for the financial system, it may be the proverbial “straw that breaks the camel’s back.”

The global financial and monetary system has all the appearances of a very old camel that is on its last legs. Copious amounts of drugs have been pumped into the camel in recent years which has prolonged its miserable life by a few years. But, they have not dealt with the substantive issue of the camel’s very old age. Similarly we have not dealt with the substantive issue of a global financial system that is drowning in trillions and trillions of dollars, euros, pounds etc of debt – some $60 trillion of which has been created since 2008.

Brexit highlights the vulnerability of the Eurozone, the Eurozone banking system and the real potential for contagion in the global financial system.

There is the inconvenient truth that many European banks – French, Italian and Irish for example – remain woefully under capitalised and indeed are border line insolvent. It is not just banks in the unfortunate “PIIGS” that are vulnerable. A cursory glance of the share price of Germany’s Deutsche Bank and Switzerland’s Credit Suisse should give even the most complacent and ‘Pollyannish’, tunnel vision bull pause for concern.

The head of Germany’s financial regulatory authority has sounded the alarm on the real risks Brexit poses to large German banks. Two banks cited as having the largest financial dealings in London are Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) and Commerzbank (OTC:CRZBY), with shares of Deutsche breaking to new all-time lows in recent days.

A British vote to leave the European Union would hit large German banks, given their heavy exposure to London, the head of German financial watchdog Bafin said in an interview with German newspaper Tagesspiegel as reported by Reuters. Bafin President Felix Hufeld told the newspaper that if there was a Brexit – “the biggest banks would have the biggest problems … they have the most activities in, and with, London,” he said.

Both Deutsche and Credit Suisse have massive derivative books and exposure and the bankruptcy of either one could lead to the EU’s ‘Lehman moment.’ Indeed, it could contribute to the collapse of the ‘single’ currency and indeed the global banking system. To those who say that this could not happen, it is worth remembering – lest we forget – that we came very, very close to that just eight short years ago.

Yet, the root cause of the initial crisis – insolvent banks and an insolvent world – has not been addressed since then. Indeed the financial position of banks and much of the western world today is arguably much worse than it was in 2008.

Gold and silver are reflecting the fact that we have a massive global financial bubble, especially in western bond markets and arguably in the U.S. stock market. This huge bubble is based on ultra loose monetary policies and the creation of currency to artificially support and pump up to record highs global bond markets. The bubble is beginning to unravel before our eyes.

The global financial system is a complete mess and the drum beat of bank bail-ins and currency devaluations grows louder by the day. Gold and silver have protected investors so far in 2016, as they have done throughout history and will do in the coming years.

Gold and Silver News
Gold holds overnight gains, heads for fifth weekly gain (Reuters)
Gold Advances for Fifth Week as Central Banks Poised for Easing (Bloomberg)
Gold bulls buoyed by prospect of Brexit swaying Fed (Reuters)
London gold trade agrees reforms to boost transparency (Reuters)
JPMorgan beats traders in silver futures rigging lawsuits (Reuters)

Gold Miners’ Debt Hangover Eases as Bullion Gets Brexit Boost (Bloomberg)
Cheap Gold Mines Disappear as Buyers Splurge for Surging Bullion (Bloomberg)
British bonds go negative as Bank of England plans more money creation (FT via GATA)
Brexit won’t hit global growth, but it does make one big difference (Money Week)
Brexit Fever Spreads: Austria and Holland are Next Up to Leave EU (Gold Seek)
Making The Case For $12,000 Gold And $360 Silver (Silver Seek)
Read More Here

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)
01 July: USD 1,331.75, EUR 1,199.51 & GBP 1,001.34 per ounce
30 June: USD 1,317.00, EUR 1,183.59 & GBP 976.82 per ounce
29 June: USD 1,318.00, EUR 1,191.64 & GBP 984.36 per ounce
28 June: USD 1,312.00, EUR 1,185.79 & GBP 985.84 per ounce
27 June: USD 1,324.60, EUR 1,200.49 & GBP 996.36 per ounce
24 June: USD 1,313.85, EUR 1,181.28 & GBP 945.58 per ounce
23 June: USD 1,265.75, EUR 1,112.22 & GBP 850.96 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)
01 July: USD 19.24, EUR 17.29 & GBP 14.48 per ounce
30 June: USD 18.36, EUR 16.48 & GBP 13.61 per ounce
29 June: USD 18.21, EUR 16.42 & GBP 13.55 per ounce
28 June: USD 17.57, EUR 15.84 & GBP 13.17 per ounce
27 June: USD 17.70, EUR 16.06 & GBP 13.40 per ounce
24 June: USD 18.04, EUR 16.32 & GBP 13.18 per ounce
23 June: USD 17.29, EUR 15.16 & GBP 11.61 per ounce

Recent Market Updates
– BREXIT Day – Markets Becalmed – Gold Panic Prelude – Trading Hours
– Gold Lower Despite “Panic” Due To “Supply Issues” In Inter Bank Gold Market
– Gold Slips Despite UK Gold Demand Surging – Investors “Seek Stability”
– Gold Prices Surge to Highest in Nearly Two Years On FED and Brexit Haven Demand
– Gold Bullion Has Little Downside, Brexit Or Not, Says HSBC
– Central Bank of Ireland Warns Risks are Debt, Brexit, Geopolitical Tensions and Migration
– Gold In Euros Surges 6.5% In June and 17% YTD On BREXIT Concerns
– Soros Buying Gold On BREXIT, EU “Collapse” Risk
– UK Gold Demand Rises On BREXIT “Nerves”
– Pensions Timebomb in “Slow Motion Detonation” In UK, EU, U.S.
– Silver – Perfect Storm Brewing in the Market
– Martin Wolf: There Will Be Another “Huge” Financial Crisis

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How to make fireworks in your account

While most of the US population drowns in a prolonged semi-conscious state for several days, with moments of alertness (they’ll know they are alive when they see the fireworks) – the remaining force of human intelligence on the planet, spends time trying to figure out ways to break through this vast blanket of social control that’s been thrown over the population like a sticky net, which is slowly eating away at the global standard of living, overall quality, lowering human genetic value.  Each day, our money is worth less and less.  Why?  We explain this in Splitting Pennies – Understanding Forex.

The problem with much discussion on Zero Hedge and alternative media in general, is that it lacks a conclusion and proposed solution.  So, we mostly agree that the USD is toast, there’s an insurmountable debt that cannot be paid back (because in a debt-based money system, if the debt is paid off, money will cease to exist).  Gold is the go to alternative to stocks & bonds which are mostly overrated – but then what?  So let’s say Gold hit’s $50,000 USD per ounce.  Then what?  Well for one, be sure that you have some good security because in a crisis, the only real currency is accelerated lead, as elaborated here eloquently.

So what is an investor to do?  Fundamental analysis of markets is impossible, because of reasons outlined well on this site:

1) Market data is manipulated heavily.  By the time any investor receives market information (unless he’s paying for a front running service) one can assume it’s been seen by leading market controllers, HFTs, directors of various unsundry government organizations, and George Soros.

2) The world changes too rapidly for any fundamental strategy to play out.  Too many wildcard events can derail strategies such as value investing.  Brexit is a great example – and there will be many more “Brexits.”

3) Even if the above 1 & 2 didn’t exist, an investor would need a carrying broker that was fair and honest, and would provide decent execution, and not go out of business.  With investing strategies such as some which are discussed on this site, this is a big issue.  For example, if Gold is $50,000 let’s say that GLD goes bust, and starts a chain reaction on exchange listed ETFs and ETNs, which can’t possibly fullfill their underlying liquidity obligations even in currenct conditions, not in extreme conditions.  Could it bring down some BDs with them?  SIPC is limited (..and if it were a TD Ameritrade, no insurance in the world can cover it).  So with such extreme strategies, counterparty risk is very large – especially in such climates that would make extreme strategies flourish.  Florida residents know very well how this works, when a big Hurricane strikes, the majority of underwriters for flood & Hurricane insurance go bust (FL law or mortgage policy sometimes require residents carry “Hurricane” insurance which doesn’t cover “flood” damage).  If the markets melt down, as many claim – how many brokers would go bust?  How many leveraged banks?  Some big banks are not looking good (such as DB – $54 – $75 Trillion derivative bomb), even in this ideal banking climate.

Hoarding a 6 month supply of food, and living in an underground bunker, is not a real solution.  Having a bug out bag, ammo, gold bars & silver coins, and other paraphernalia, it’s just survival.  It’s not a strategy.  Keeping Gold is the investing equivalent of being a prepper.  And as we’ve explained in a previous detailed article, preppers have it all wrong.

Algorithmic Trading – The New Asset Class

This is one solution – and likely will soon be an entire asset class by itself.  Robo-Advisors are becoming popular in securities, but on the surface it seems they are only SAS solutions that are replacing human office workers.  They are just doing the job that the office worker RIA used to do; meet with clients and build a vanilla portfolio with 20% Utilities and 50% Technology and 20% “Growth” (whatever that ever meant) and 10% Dividend stocks.  Currently, HFT is dominated by large institutional players that frankly, the public knows very little about.  See one example Jump Trading.  The problem is their inaccessability – investors will need many millions to start (consider $50 Million, for a good start).  Also, having the $50 Million doesn’t qualify you for anything.  Now you’ll have to develop your own algorithms, or hire another firm to do it.  But this is the equivalent of hiring a consultant to tell you what business you are in (Consultants, and lawyers, will do this for a fee).

Then there’s the world of retail algorithmic Forex, not allowed for US investors (or at least, so highly restricted and regulated it makes any normally profitable strategy, barely profitable).  As this chart shows, it really is “Magic:”

The above is a real live trading account over a period of 3 years.  Not likely that an investor can find such performance in stocks, or ‘robo advisors.’  

The point is that an algorithm can trade any market, and if the strategy is stable, and consistent, it can deliver investment returns above and beyond the average, that are not correlated to the market – and most importantly – NOT DEPENDENT ON HUMAN BEINGS.  An algorithm isn’t perfect, but it solves the basic fundamental problems of human traders.  And there are thousands of them.  You can even evaluate FX algorithms for free, without investing a penny.  Checkout http://ift.tt/1WXUVou as one example – there are many.  To learn more about investing in Forex checkout Fortress Capital Forex here. 

Algorithms give developers many abilities that simply wouldn’t be possible with human traders.  Most importantly, in a sterile development environment, it’s possible to test, analyze, and optimize any trading idea relatively quickly, and then develop a robust strategy based on this process.  It’s necessary to invest heavily in computing to do this, but many who have done this will offer their strategies for investors use.  What’s good about this approach is that it’s an investment in a methodology, not in an asset class. 

This is a fundamental mistake made by modern investors.  Gold is great.  But then what?  During Brexit for example, it was possible to buy and sell the Great British Pound by more than 10 signficant moves, during a 10 hour period.  That’s activity that an algo can capture.  Just ‘investing’ in the US Dollar, or Great British Pound – is risky.  If an algo is built with a robust risk management module, it’s the safest way to trade the markets.  And one doesn’t need to become an expert in mathematics and algorithm development to do so – there are hundreds of algos available for use by any investor, big or small.  But if one does want to take on a challenge and build his own investing system, there are literally thousands of free resources online to support that development.  There’s companies that have built a business out of algorithm development.  And certainly, this is only the beginning of a new blue ocean market.  The reason algos are the future?  Because they work.  That’s all.

via http://ift.tt/29ft5lW globalintelhub

How To Spot A False Flag Event

Via Chuck Baldwin Live,

A missionary friend of mine in Eastern Europe recently gave me a heads up regarding an excellent article written by Sebastian Swift entitled "5 Confirmed False Flag Operations And How To Spot Them In The Future."

Swift writes,

"The false flag phenomenon is distinctively modern and used as an ideological weapon to control populations with the fear of a manufactured enemy. They are used in ostensibly democratic systems where people believe they have inalienable rights. Such democratic systems–primarily the United States, Israel, and Great Britain–must shock people into sociopolitical and geopolitical consent and, as such, require sophisticated modern propaganda systems and advanced covert operations teams with highly proficient skills."

Here are his telltale signs of a false flag operation:

  • There is an immediate comprehensive narrative, including a convenient culprit. Law enforcement, government agencies, and the mainstream media immediately proffer a narrative that completely explains the event and encourages citizens to tie their intellectual understanding of the tragedy to the emotions they experience. In his lecture at Contact in the Desert, [author and researcher] Richard Dolan noted that a distinguishing characteristic of a false flag operation is that the official narrative IS NOT questioned by the media. There are often legislative, ideological and sociopolitical power plays waiting in the wings, which the government can immediately implement.
  • The official narrative has obvious domestic and geopolitical advantages for the governing body. The Bush administration used 9/11 to usher in the War on Terror, which has served as a lynchpin for countless civil liberty infringements by the national security state, including ubiquitous domestic surveillance and indefinite detention.
  • The narrative behind the attack serves to leverage emotions like fear, as well as patriotism, in order to manufacture consent around a previously controversial issue. For example, many of the recent domestic terror attacks, including the Aurora [and Orlando] shooting[s], have exacerbated and reinforced advocacy of gun control legislation.
  • Military training drills and police drills occur on the day of and very near the attack itself, causing confusion to obscure eye witness testimony and allowing orchestrators to plant both patsies, disinformation and backup operatives. This is no small point. An incredible percentage of major domestic or international terror attacks have involved simultaneous "training drills.” This list includes, but is not limited to, the infamous NORAD drills of 9/11, the 7/7 London Bombings, the 2011 Norway shooting, the Aurora shooting, Sandy Hook, and the Boston Marathon. Though none of the aforementioned events can be confirmed or denied without a doubt, they bear a striking resemblance to previous false flag attacks and should be looked at with an investigative eye.

It's time for those of us who have been reluctant to consider the possibility that our own government (and the governments of Israel and Great Britain) could actually be complicit in domestic terrorism in order to further a nefarious agenda to at least stop accepting the government and media’s version of these tragedies at face value. For the most part, the mainstream media is little more than a propaganda ministry for the federal government. We haven’t seen true objective investigative journalism since before the death of John F. Kennedy.

Granted, not every national tragedy is part of a government conspiracy–and there is a plethora of "conspiracy nuts" out there to whom EVERYTHING is a conspiracy and through which we must wade to try to ascertain the truth. These people make it difficult for all of us. The Internet has provided the Chicken Littles of the world with an opportunity to play journalist. And their “everything's-a-conspiracy” rants only serve to mask the true conspiracies and turn the average John Doe away from the truth. That’s why I believe that many of these “conspiracy-everywhere” Internet bloggers are actually PART OF THE CONSPIRACY. Their job is to make genuine whistleblowers and researchers look like conspiracy “kooks.” Then, of course, there are genuine kooks out there, too.

Regardless, the similarities and "coincidences" of many of these national tragedies are just too numerous for rational people to ignore. I believe Mr. Swift's analysis is very intelligent, coherent, and plausible.

Our Founding Fathers believed their government (the British Crown) was deliberately conspiring against them. Thomas Jefferson said as much in our Declaration of Independence:

“Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.”

Read it again: “But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a DESIGN to reduce them under absolute Despotism . . . .” Jefferson and the rest of America’s founders believed that there was a “design” (i.e, “plot,” “scheme,” or “conspiracy,” if you please) to “reduce them under absolute Despotism.” So, if you believe that government conspiracy is only for kooks, you must include America’s Founding Fathers in that group.

Patrick Henry may have said it best:

"We are apt to shut our eyes against a painful truth, and listen to the song of that siren, till she transforms us into beasts. Is this the part of wise men, engaged in a great and arduous struggle for liberty? Are we disposed to be of the number of those who, having eyes, see not, and having ears, hear not, the things which so nearly concern their temporal salvation?

 

"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth–to know the worst and to provide for it."

I submit if we deliberately "shut our eyes against a painful truth," liberty is not long for this country. And there is plenty of blame to go around.

Obviously, the “no conspiracy” group is contributing greatly to the demise of liberty by their unwillingness to even examine the evidence suggesting government conspiracies. Truly, they are shutting their eyes “against a painful truth.” And, unfortunately, this group is most prevalent among pastors, Christians, and churches.

I find it incredible that people who supposedly study their Bibles are so completely blind to government conspiracies. The Old and New Testaments are replete with examples of government conspiracies. Jewish governments, especially, were notorious for conspiring against God’s prophets in the Old Testament and against Jesus and the Apostles in the New Testament. Plus, the New Testament plainly pictures the master conspirator, Satan, as being the “god of this world” and “the prince of the power of the air.” His offer to Christ on the Mount of Temptation to give Jesus the “kingdoms of the world” was NOT challenged by the Lord. In other words, Jesus didn’t dispute the fact that Satan controls many, if not most, of the world’s governments. The Book of Ephesians warns against the conspiracy of “principalities,” “powers,” “rulers of the darkness of this world,” and “spiritual wickedness in high places.” Every Bible commentator that I respect includes wicked civil magistrates within these personages. Yet when one brings up the possibility of government conspiracies to the average church member, he or she is treated as if they have the palsy.

Nowhere is this attitude of the denial of conspiracies more evident than in the whole Muslim versus America façade. Almost no Christian leader seems to be able to see the “man behind the curtain” in this whole affair. They have absolutely NO concept of what the governments of the U.S., Great Britain, Israel, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia are surreptitiously doing to instigate and foment this “war with Islam.” (Of course, there is no war against the Islamic states of Saudi Arabia and Turkey; they are our “allies.”) Christians aren’t even willing to study the matter. Therefore, the devil–along with the evil miscreants inside Western governments that he controls–is able to go about his diabolical work completely undetected.

But, in all fairness, the “everything's-a-conspiracy” group must also share culpability in our country’s demise. There are too many professing “patriots” who seem to have no honesty or objectivity whatsoever. To them, everything government does is bad whether it is or isn’t. And, of course, they, the so-called “patriots,” can do NOTHING wrong.

For example, if a black kid in an inner city is unjustly killed by a police officer, these “patriots” say absolutely NOTHING. But if one of their “own” is justly killed by police, they scream “tyranny” and shout about the need for revolution. Such people seem to have no reasoning ability and no understanding of Natural Law. They are agenda driven as surely as are big-government toadies. In fact, some of these “patriot” Internet bloggers and radio broadcasters are no better than the mainstream media: they twist the truth in order to pander to the people who are supporting them financially. It’s not about principle; it’s not about truth; it’s not about the rule of law. It’s all about their financial success.

When we only condemn injustice committed by government, while overlooking and condoning injustice committed by so-called “patriots,” we lose all credibility and integrity. Everything is not a conspiracy. Every policeman or federal agent is not a Jackboot. Sometimes there are real acts of violence committed by real deranged criminals with no help whatsoever from anyone–including anyone in government. And sometimes there are so-called “patriots” who are themselves evil, using the freedom movement for their own ulterior purposes. And, of course, there are well-intentioned people who sometimes do very foolish and unwise things. And only foolish and unwise people would condone and support foolish and unwise actions, even if they are well-intentioned.

I totally agree with Sebastian Swift’s article that there are indeed false flag operations being perpetrated by rogue elements within government–including the governments of the United States, Great Britain, and Israel. I further agree that people need to honestly and objectively be alert for the identifying characteristics of these false flag operations. More than that, the American people need to begin holding our civil magistrates accountable for these operations, as they could not continue without the tacit support of our elected representatives and President.

But what we do NOT need are phony “patriots” who do nothing but distract, confuse, and incite by calling everything a conspiracy and who themselves are guilty of unlawful conduct–unlawful conduct as defined by God and Natural Law. (This is why the ignorance and silence of America’s pulpits is such an egregious crime: people do not even know how to discern lawful and unlawful conduct because pastors are not teaching them these Biblical Natural Law principles.) Plus, I am personally convinced that many of these hot-headed so-called “patriots” are in reality government agent provocateurs who are deliberately trying to incite real patriots into doing something stupid.

Again, I submit if we deliberately "shut our eyes against a painful truth," liberty is not long for this country. And that includes admitting when a tragedy is NOT a conspiracy. But it also means admitting when evidence suggests that it IS.

via http://ift.tt/29laVkr Tyler Durden