Following June's disappointing relapse in Durable Goods Orders (which was revised lower), July's preliminary headline rose 4.4% (ahead of 3.4% exp) – the biggest MoM gain since Oct 2015. However, due to the revisions durable goods orders fell 6.4% year-over-year – the second big annual drop in a row.
Under the hood most of the headline data beat expectations MoM as follows:
- New durable goods new orders rose 4.4%, vs Exp. 3.3%
- New orders ex-trans. rose 1.5% vs Exp. 0.5%,
- Non-defense capital goods orders ex-aircraft rose 1.6%, Exp. 0.3%
… but we note that Capital Goods Shipments non-defense Ex-Aircraft fell 0.4% MoM… which led to a 9.5% collapse in year-over-year core capex unadjusted orders.
However, when applying the now controversial seasonal adjustments, which on a Y/Y basis should not impact the number substantially, we get the following modestly better picture.
via http://ift.tt/2bJ25Nm Tyler Durden