The general trend of weakenig ADP job growth continues in August with a 177k print (in line with expectations). Goods-related jobs dropped 6k but Service-related roles rose 183k, but notably construction jobs fell 2k. Notably, the last two months have seen payrolls notably above ADP data, which if it happens once again will likely trigger The Fed. However, most notably, over the past five months, the average ADP employment gain is 175K, which is the lowest since July 2013.
Initial Claims continues to diverge from other jobs data as ADP trends lower…
The last two months have seen payrolls notably above ADP data…
Payrolls for businesses with 49 or fewer employees increased by 63,000 jobs in August, down from 68,000 in July. Employment at companies with 50-499 employees increased by 44,000 jobs, down from last month’s 71,000. Employment at large companies – those with 500 or more employees – increased by 70,000, up from July’s 56,000. Companies with 500-999 employees added 25,000 and companies with more than 1,000 employees added 46,000 in August.
Goods-producing employment was down by 6,000 jobs in August, following July losses of 5,000. The construction industry lost 2,000 jobs, following July losses of 5,000 jobs. Meanwhile, manufacturing jobs were flat in August, after gaining 5,000 in the previous month.
Service-providing employment rose by 183,000 jobs in August, fewer than July’s 199,000 jobs. The ADP National Employment Report indicates that professional/business services contributed 53,000 jobs, down from July’s 70,000. Trade/transportation/utilities increased by 26,000 jobs in August, down from 31,000 jobs added the previous month. Financial activities added 15,000 jobs, up from last month’s gain of 13,000 jobs
Full Breakdown…
“Job growth in August was stable and consistent with levels from previous months as consumer conditions improve,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and head of the ADP Research Institute. “Continued strong growth in service-providing jobs is offset by weakness in goods-producing areas.”
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The American job machine continues to hum along. Job creation remains strong, with most industries and companies of all sizes adding solidly to their payrolls. The U.S. economy will soon be at full employment.”
ADP Infographic…