This post is from October 11th and originally ran here – Bearish Crude Oil. The blog’s full archives are at Trader Scott’s Market Blog. This post’s charts are as of October 11th:
The global stock markets are very concerning to me and the current complacency will need to be wrung out – only a large sell off will accomplish it. But, to repeat, complacency is not a reason to get short – it’s just a warning flag. I chronicled my bearish views of crude oil over the few years before the major selling climax in crude on February 11th at $26ish. These posts here, here, and here, for example with my belief this past January that the final bottoming process had begun. And that $26 low was the major bottom, but there would be retests (but at higher lows). Currently I am quite concerned about crude and especially the shares. I usually initiate short positions when: I’m concerned about a market long term or shorter term (with energy shares it’s not long term bearishness); a market is under DISTRIBUTION/topping process/strong hands to weak hands; and that market is above the RESISTANCE area when a market is allegedly “breaking out to new highs”. So currently the general stock market, crude oil and energy stocks are quite concerning. I do not recommend for most people to attempt to sell short, so if you have questions you can e-mail me. The relevant charts are below:
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