So what is the verdict from Comey’s historic testimony?
It depends on who you ask: turning to CNN, reading the NYT or WaPo, or any source of left-leaning news, and virtually every commentator will be certain that Trump’s political career has been terminally truncated as a result of today’s events. Alternatively, and inversely, the right will claim the opposite: Comey failed to do any damage to the president, the Russian collusion narrative is now over, and that it is Comey’s own actions that should be probed.
Both are to be expected.
But what about the reaction by an impartial arbiter such as the market? Conveiently, that’s what PredictIt is for, and as the chart below shows, Trump’s 2017 impeachment odds dropped by 4 points, from 21% to 17%, following Comey’s testimony.
… retracing the entire move from the past week.
What about looking beyond 2017? Luckily, there’s a poll for that too, and according to market participants responding to whether “Donald Trump be president at year-end 2018?”, the answer there rose from 59% this morning to 63%, matching the highest probability over the past month.
The bottom line: political punditry aside, the market’s verdidct was clear – if Comey hoped to cripple the Trump administration – at least based on his much anticipated testimony – he failed.
via http://ift.tt/2sINbh2 Tyler Durden