This is what you’re paying for, clients of Morgan Stanley. You get Mike Wilson, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist and Chief Investment Officer, the most bullish of analysts on Wall Street, while also being the most bearish.
How wonderful.
Asshat, Morgan Stanley
To best experience the dynamics of Mike Wilson’s intricate market call, first I advise you to sit back, relax, and drink a fifth of vodka — straight from the bottle — then doze off in that nice rocking chair of yours and be prepared to vomit when you wake up.
He’s calling for S&P 2,700 by Q2 of 2018, roughly 10% higher from present levels. In a televised interview on CNBC yesterday, he described a market that would saunter higher, amidst cheerful baskets of flowers being tossed upon investors. There wouldn’t be any cause for concern, until his price target was met — at which time grave horrors would unfold — leaving top tickers stranded at the altar — raped, battered, and bruised.
After the market soars to new record levels, a pox will befall equities, shattering dreams and stopping pace makers. The S&P 500 will fall by 20%, drowning investors in a bear market that is both menacing and harrowing.
Until then, earnings should drive gains and potential economic stimulus will keep the party train going, leisurely stocked with the strongest and the purest strains of cocaine, booze, and hookers.
“Today is a short term euphoria but we think this is the primary trend: Small caps, financials energy” are all opportunities for investors. “That doesn’t mean that FANG or tech gets left behind. They can both work in concert now. So I think this is the next leg.”
While markets should trade higher, up until it crests at Wilson’s ghostly target of 2,700, he does caution investors that is could trade down, rather severely, at any given moment. He’s calling for a possible retracement of 5-6% by late October to early November. In the event that doesn’t happen, well then, stocks should trade higher.
“I think the way it sets up is people probably get excited over the next couple of weeks,” said Wilson, also chief investment officer of institutional securities and wealth management. Wilson said he expects earnings to keep buoying the market. “Then we’re going to have the inevitable disappointment.”
Wilson also took a shot at his peers for being wrong about a summer correction, smugly reminding them of what drives stocks in this market.
The reason why stocks went higher this summer, as opposed to lower, was simple, according to Wilson — “It survived the test. The reason it survived the test is that fundamentals are too good,” he said. “There’s two ways to correct an overbought market. You could go down or you could go sideways. We took that latter route. “
After the 5-6% fall correction, stocks will extricate themselves from the ribald glumness of Autumn and reassert a bullish vigor — sending it to new record highs at 2,700.
“We’ll get to 2,700 first, and then the timing of the beginning of the cyclical bear could be imminent. It could be any time after that. It could be as early as the second half of next year,” he said in the telephone interview.
To avoid sounding absurd, or even ridiculous, Mr. Wilson reminded the reps at Morgan Stanley that butcherous market slaughterings are quite normal happenings for stocks — in spite of them becoming increasingly rare in the 8th year of the present bull market.
He summed up his intellectually diverse market call as calling for both a boom and a bust, having it both ways, having cake and eating it too.
“I think this is the trick…Be careful what you wish for. We’re late cycle. We made this call back in April. We’re looking for the boom, bust,” he said. The boom is the bump and euphoria from fiscal stimulus, and investors could get excited about tax cuts sometime early next year. “It actually brings the end of the cycle. That’s the irony.”
Prepare for both gains and losses, ups and downs.
Thank you Morgan Stanley.
via http://ift.tt/2hzaSYh The_Real_Fly