We suspect more than a few traders will be saying this tonight…
A big week…
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Unemployment Rate at 49 year lows
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US Stocks – worst 2-day drop since May
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Small Caps, Nasdaq – biggest weekly drop in 7 months
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Small Caps – biggest 5-week drop since Nov 2016
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China (closed) ETF – biggest weekly drop in 7 months
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Semis – biggest weekly drop in 6 months
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FANGs – biggest weekly drop in 7 months
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Homebuilders – worst.losing.streak.ever…
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USD Index – best week in 2 months
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HY Bonds – biggest weekly price drop in 8 months
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IG Bonds – biggest weekly drop since Nov 2016
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Treasury Yields – biggest weekly yield spike in 8 months
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Yield Curve – biggest weekly steepening in 8 months
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Gold – best weekly gain in 6 weeks
Chinese stocks were closed for Golden Week but the China ETF slumped…
European Stocks tumbled on the week…
US Small Caps stocks were the worst – though Nasdaq was close – suffering their biggest drop since March…Even The Dow gave up early week gains…
Small Caps – down 4 of the last 5 weeks (the biggest 5-week drop since Nov 2016 – Trump Election) – broke the most below their critical technical support 50DMA since May… but bounced off its 200DMA today…
The S&P bounced off its 50DMA…
The Dow-Small Caps divergence remains yuuge… (the last 5 weeks have been the biggest divergence since Sept 2011)
Semis slaughtered…
FANGs f##ked…
Banks bid but weak…
But homebuilders are getting hammered – down 13 days in a row…lowest since April 2017.
TSLA tumbled back into the red, giving up all those post-SEC gains…
VIX exploded above 17…
And the VIX curve inverted…
But GE had its best week since 2009!!
IG and HY bond prices plunged this week…
But while stocks caught a lot of eyes, bonds were really where the bloodbath hit…
Don’t forget Bonds are closed on Monday (Columbus Day)
Treasury volatility exploded from record lows this week…
Breaking bond yields to multi-year highs…
The yield curve exploded this week – steepening most since February…
The Dollar managed solid gains on the week but slipped in the latter half…
Cryptos ended mostly lower amid low volatility with only Ether managing very modest gains…
WTI and Gold managed gains on the week despite dollar strength as silver and copper slipped…
Gold managed to hold above $1200…and WTI above $74
Finally, as is increasingly occurring here, we give Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg the last words…
“There’s no reason to think that the probability of a recession in the next year or two is at all elevated” (Powell, Oct. 18); “The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession” (Bernanke, Jan. 2008); <1/3>
— David Rosenberg (@EconguyRosie) October 5, 2018
“We don’t have the capability of reliably forecasting a recession” (Greenspan, Dec. 2000) <2/3>
— David Rosenberg (@EconguyRosie) October 5, 2018
Those last tweets can simply be labelled “famous last words” <3/3>
— David Rosenberg (@EconguyRosie) October 5, 2018
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