Just a few weeks after Caterpillar reported disappointing results, which sent its stock sliding amid growing fears about the company’s exposure to China and other emerging markets, moments ago CAT reported October retail sales data which confirmed that the growth slowdown is continuing beyond the 3rd quarter.
The company reported a 21% increase in rolling 3-month North American machine retail sales, down from 28% in September, and the weakest since May’s 20%; more concerning was the sharp drop in the core Asia/Pac sales growth which declined to 20%, down sharply from 51% at the start of the year, and the weakest print since December 2016. Retail sales growth also moderated in secondary markets such as EAME (9%) and Latin America (23%) as the peak in heavy industrial machinery usage appears to have passed earlier this year.
Finally, looking at the big picture, retail sales growth for the entire world is now half where it was earlier this year when it hit 36% in February, and in October it had dropped to just 18%, the lowest going back to September 2017.
The good news: there is still about a year – at the current rate of decline – before global retail sales turn negative as they did in 2013 and stayed there for the next 51 months as China slowed down sharply, and the US shale sector suffered a recession. That said, the trend is troubling and confirms that after peaking at the start of the year, global growth – as proxied by the industrial bellwether that is Caterpillar – has fizzled sharpy.
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