For now, FX markets remain the only ‘liquid’ course of reflection on the Trump-Xi trade-truce ‘deal’ and China’s offshore yuan has spiked over 6 handles (back below 6.90/USD) implying a solid jump at the open for US equity futures…
A big jump for sure in offshore yuan but remains well below the early Nov spike highs…
On a side note, JPY has weakened, but remain unable to erase all of Powell’s dovish speech surge…
And extrapolating from last week’s moves, offshore yuan implies an open for S&P futures around 2800…
Which, as we noted earlier, is exactly in line with one “base case” which correctly predicted that a Truce – in which existing tariffs stay in place – is the most likely outcome (with a 70% chance), while also accurately predicting a 3 month ceasefire, the agreement will be enough to get the S&P to 2,800…
… so look for a burst of buying in the S&P over the next 24 hours which pushes the stock index higher, but not much higher as trader concerns will next revert back to the Fed which now that trade tensions have been temporarily removed, may promptly revert back to its hawkish bias and resume rising rates well into 2019 which in turn will be the next bearish event-risk to put a damper on any substantial Christmas rally.
And while spread-betting markets are signaling around a 250 point gain at the open for the Dow…
It is clear that there is little follow-through since the initial spike.
We await the algos open to see just what can be made of this so-called ‘truce’.
via RSS https://ift.tt/2DWRSMr Tyler Durden