A spokesperson for Theresa May shocked investors on Monday when they insisted that Tuesday’s ‘meaningful vote’ on her ‘final’ Brexit plan would move ahead as planned, countering rumors that May had been planning to tell MPs that the vote would be cancelled during an ’emergency’ conference call. EU ministers have apparently stood by their position that the deal on the table is the only possible deal, and that negotiations would not be reopened.
All of this is happening against a backdrop that one might expect would be favorable for the pound and UK markets: As was widely expected, the ECJ formally ruled on Monday that Parliament could unilaterally cancel Brexit by voting to revoke Article 50, according to the Financial Times.
Mere minutes after reports about the spokesman’s comments hit the tape, Bloomberg reported that May has indeed called for Tuesday’s vote to be rescheduled because it is facing a “huge defeat” that could potentially destabilize her government. By rescheduling the vote, May will have time to return to the EU and try to “handbag” its leaders for a better deal, though they have insisted at every turn that the deal on the table is the “final” deal. On Monday, a spokeswoman for Jean Claude-Juncker insisted that “we won’t renegotiate.
Citing two sources, the BBC added that the word on the street is that the vote will be cancelled – though that has yet to be officially confirmed.
Two cabinet sources tell me vote being pulled – not, repeat not, yet officially confirmed
— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) December 10, 2018
A reporter from Sky News said, citing a senior government source, that May will need a reason to justify delaying the vote, such as plans for a “dash to Brussels”.
The pound slid to a fresh YTD low on the news:
Nobody knows what could happen if/when Parliament votes down the deal, according to the Telegraph.
If May were to lose the vote on Tuesday, the Telegraph sees four possible outcomes:
Setting aside that more than 100 Tory MPs have joined with the DUP and SNP in pledging to vote against Theresa May’s draft Brexit deal, May’s purported “plan” to force the deal through in a second vote as turbulent markets scare MPs into voting for the deal or risk economic chaos has never looked more tenuous. May’s deal is opposed by both Brexiteers and remainers, and even those who support the deal admit that it is “imperfect” but preferable to “no deal.”
Should her conservatives lose the vote, Labour is planning to call for a vote of no confidence in the government (for which it would only need the support of a handful of Tory defectors) as leader Jeremy Corbyn seeks to push for a second referendum. Meanwhile, Tory ministers are considering a range of options, including pushing for a “Plan B” deal that would resemble the increasingly popular “Super Norway” scenario, to throwing their support behind a second referendum.
Amid the chaos of the conflicting headlines, one thing is increasingly clear: The possibility that Brexit may be cancelled has almost never looked so high.
via RSS https://ift.tt/2B4IjrD Tyler Durden