UMich Confidence Rebounds But Democrats Get More Depressed

The preliminary UMich data showed a modest rebound in September after August’s collapse and final data confirmed that trend continued into the end of the month:

 

Source: Bloomberg

Buying conditions were flat for housing…

Source: Bloomberg

Higher income Americans saw the smallest rise in confidence…

Source: Bloomberg

UMich notes that impeachments divert the attention of the President and Congress away from economic policies, and may become conflated with partisan strategies.

The big divergence was, once again, political as Dems confidence slumped to 72.0 vs 75.7 and Reps confidence rose to 119.5 from 112.8

Source: Bloomberg

Despite the high levels of confidence, consumers have also expressed rising levels of economic uncertainty. Some of these concerns are rooted in partisanship, some due to conditions in the global economy (Brexit, Iran, Saudi Arabia, China), and some are tied to domestic economic policies.

Trade policies have had the greatest negative impact on consumers, with a near record one-third of all consumers negatively mentioning trade policies in September when asked to explain in their own words the factors underlying their economic expectations