Existing Home Sales Tumble In September, Despite Low Mortgage Rates

After August’s rebound across the housing market – as mortgage rates tumbled – September was expected to see some slowdown but existing home sales fell significantly (dropping 2.2% MoM against expectations of a 0.7% drop).

Existing Home Sales SAAR fell from 5.50mm to 5.38mm in September…

Source: Bloomberg

Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said that despite historically low mortgage rates, sales have not commensurately increased, in part due to a low level of new housing options.

“We must continue to beat the drum for more inventory,” said Yun, who has called for additional home construction for over a year.

“Home prices are rising too rapidly because of the housing shortage, and this lack of inventory is preventing home sales growth potential.”

Regional breakdown:

• September existing-home sales in the Northeast fell 2.8% to an annual rate of 690,000, a 1.5% rise from a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $301,100, up 5.2% from September 2018.

• In the Midwest, existing-home sales dropped 3.1% to an annual rate of 1.27 million, which is nearly equal to August 2018. The median price in the Midwest was $213,500, a 7.2% jump from a year ago.

• Existing-home sales in the South decreased 2.1% to an annual rate of 2.28 million in September, up 6.0% from a year ago. The median price in the South was $237,300, up 6.3% from one year ago.

• Existing-home sales in the West declined 0.9% to an annual rate of 1.14 million in September, 5.6% above a year ago. The median price in the West was $403,600, up 4.5% from September 2018.

More problematically, existing home sales slipped despite low mortgage rates…

Source: Bloomberg

As price once again becomes an issue.

The median existing-home price for all housing types in September was $272,100, up 5.9% from September 2018 ($256,900), as prices rose in all regions. September’s price increase marks 91 straight months of year-over-year gains.

Total housing inventory at the end of September sat at 1.83 million, approximately equal to the amount of existing-homes available for sale in August, but a 2.7% decrease from 1.88 million one year ago. Unsold inventory is at a 4.1-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 4.0 months in August and down from the 4.4-month figure recorded in September 2018.