Oil, Stocks Soar After Trump Says He Expects Oil Production Cut; Russia/Saudis Deny

Update (1045ET): Shortly after the market moved on this tweet, Russian State Newswire RIA Novosti reports that “Kremlin denies President Putin has spoken with Saudi Crown Prince.”

Which appears to confirm what we said below. It is unclear if this is ‘new’ news or Bloomberg reporting ‘old’ news.

Additionally, Bloomberg’s Javier Blas notes that the statement from Riyadh (via the Saudi official news agency) is far more measured:

THE SAUDI VERSION: The statement from Riyadh (via the Saudi official news agency) is far more measured: call for an OPEC+ meeting with the aim of “seeking a fair agreement” — all code words from the Saudis for a deal needs to include cuts from every nation | #OOTT #OilPriceWar pic.twitter.com/CW7JLFOKr8

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) April 2, 2020

All code words from the Saudis for a deal that needs to include cuts from every nation.

So it appears like Trump ‘bent the truth’ that any agreement was in place or imminent.

Oil (and stocks) are both fading…

GLJ research’s Gordon Johnson is skeptical also, writing that:

“$25 WTI doesn’t help US. We need $50. What trump is doing doesn’t matter. More BKs.

No new rigs coming back if they cut production. All they’re doing is filling a 20mm barrel hole that we have b/c planes and cars are grounded.

And once economy comes back they turn back on anyway.

Market will be back negative by lunch.”

*  *  *

Whether it’s just more desperate jawboning or resembles reality, CNBC’s Joe Kernan reports that he just spoike to President Trump who claims his conversations with Putin and MbS suggest an oil production cut of up to 15mm barrels/day is imminent.

President Trump tells CNBC that he spoke to President Putin yesterday and Saudi Crown Prince today and expects them to announce an oil production cut of 10 million barrels and could be up to 15 million. 

President Trumptold reporters in Washington this morning that…

“Worldwide, the oil industry has been ravaged. Its very bad for Russia, its very bad for Saudi Arabia. I mean, its very bad for both. I think they’re going to make a deal.”

…and has just tweeted his confirmation:

Just spoke to my friend MBS (Crown Prince) of Saudi Arabia, who spoke with President Putin of Russia, & I expect & hope that they will be cutting back approximately 10 Million Barrels, and maybe substantially more which, if it happens, will be GREAT for the oil & gas industry!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 2, 2020

The result is not surprisingly a massive 35% surge in crude…

With a huge gap higher as Trump stopped everyone out…

Stocks are also being buoyed by this…

We suggest skepticism here is well placed – it makes no sense for Saudis to back down now.

Just this morning, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on a conference call that consultations with Saudi Arabia haven’t started yet and that there are no plans for Putin to contact Saudi leadership in next day or two. Additionally, he noted that “nobody is satisfied” with the situation on the global oil market, and confirmed that there have been no discussions yet of any possible agreements to replace OPEC+.