Month: June 2020

It began with Iranian claims of a mere accidental gas pipeline explosion or blast that was the result of gas leak at a civilian storage site in the desert late last week.

This after multiple videos emerged online showing what appeared a huge fireball and multiple flashes lighting up the night sky at around midnight Thursday. Clearly a massive blast, it prompted Iran’s defense ministry to address it, given it was in the vicinity of a sensitive military site. 

A military spokesperson dismissed it as an accident a gas storage facility in a “public area” of Parchin, about 20 miles southeast of Tehran, in statements to sate TV, but it didn’t take long for analysts in the West to identify the area as being close to alleged secretive missile factories. 

Satellite image shows aftermath of the explosion at Khojir missile base in Iran. One building completely destroyed and a large burn area.

Iran claims a gas tank exploded near a military base. There’s no sign of a gas tank here and the blast is inside the base.

Image: @Maxar pic.twitter.com/ofUzOtbvkV

— Raf Sanchez (@rafsanchez) June 28, 2020

This based on satellite images said to pinpoint the blast site: 

Iran may have been up to more than it claims after mysterious explosions ripped apart an area near secretive missile factories in the hills east of Tehran.

Images have identified a burned area in the hills near the Khojir Missile Production Complex.

Regional media is now speculating that something worse may have happened when a massive explosion lit up the night skies over Iran last week. Theories initially pointed to Parchin as the location of the explosion. Iranian media claimed it was just a gas leak at a storage facility.

Prior explosions at missile and other defense testing sites have previously been covered up or downplayed by the Islamic Republic, reports suggest.

“While Parchin has gained notoriety for its role in Iran’s pre-2003 nuclear weapons program, Khojir has generally escaped public scrutiny despite being the single most important site associated with Iran’s ballistic missile program. The vast area nestled https://t.co/lAqccHPMeQ

— Alireza Nader علیرضا نادر (@AlirezaNader) June 27, 2020

Initially on Friday even Iranian media described the explosion, heard and seen for miles, as a mystery blast. “The cause of this sound and light is not yet known, but it was clearly heard in Pardis, in Boumhen and surrounding areas” of the Iranian capital, Mehr news agency had reported.

Further fueling the speculation is that tensions with Israel and the United States are still soaring, given Iran’s moving forward with developing uranium enrichment capabilities – blowing past caps in place under the JCPOA – which Tehran has all along said is for peaceful nuclear energy.

But Israel believes Tehran both pursuing warheads and the ability to launch. 

ویدیویی از #نور_تهران [#انفجار_تهران؟]
صدای فیلم میگه: بچه‌ها اینجا پردیسه… از پشت کوه‌ها صدای #انفجار اومد الان هم نورش داره میاد.

(منظورش از “اینجا” احتمالا اونجایی است که خودش هست.)@iranshekar pic.twitter.com/mJysRbTZzl

— Vahid Online (@Vahid) June 25, 2020

Anytime such unexplained ‘explosions in the desert’ happen in Iran, there’s also the question of possible Israeli jet or drone attacks, given Israeli Air Force strikes on Iranian targets inside Syria have become so frequent as to be a near weekly occurrence of late. 

Submitted by SouthFront,

A previous report by South Front documented the heavy human, social and material costs of the drug wars in Mexico, which have devastated the country since the mid-2000s. In this report some of the major factors in the rapidly shifting environment of the main cartels over the last ten years, and their frequent formations, disintegrations and reconfigurations, are reviewed.

The markets for drugs: key aspects

Cocaine from Colombia supplies most of the U.S. market, and most of that supply now passes through Mexico, with Mexican drug traffickers the primary wholesalers of cocaine to the United States. According to official estimates, coca cultivation and cocaine production in Colombia have risen or remained constant over the last couple of years, with the U.S. government estimating that Colombia produced a record 921 metric tons of pure cocaine in 2017. For 2018, the U.S. government reported that Colombia’s coca cultivation dropped slightly to 208,000 hectares and its potential cocaine production declined to an estimated 887 metric tons.

In its 2018 National Drug Threat Assessment (NDTA), the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) states that Mexican trafficking organizations also dominate heroin and fentanyl exports from the country. Mexico’s heroin traffickers, who traditionally provided black or brown heroin to U.S. cities west of the Mississippi, began in 2012 and 2013 to innovate and changed their opium processing methods to produce white heroin, a purer and more potent product, which they trafficked mainly to the U.S. East Coast and Midwest. DEA seizure data determined in 2017 that 91% of heroin consumed in the United States was sourced to Mexico, and the agency maintains that no other crime groups have a comparable reach to distribute within the United States.

According to the US Office of National Drug Control Policy, Mexico cultivated an estimated 32,000 hectares (ha) of opium poppy in 2016, 44,100 ha in 2017, and 41,800 ha in 2018. The US government estimated that Mexico’s potential production of heroin rose to 106 metric tons in 2018 from 26 metric tons in 2013, suggesting Mexican-sourced heroin is likely to remain dominant in the U.S. market.

Illicit imports of fentanyl from Mexico involve Chinese fentanyl or fentanyl precursors mostly sourced from China. In addition, these traffickers adulterate fentanyl imported from China and smuggle it into the United States.

In 2017, Mexico seized 421 metric tons of marijuana and eradicated more than 4,230 hectares of marijuana, according to the State Department. However, it is likely that there will be a significant decline in US demand for Mexican marijuana as more marijuana is grown legally in several states in the United States and Canada, which have either legalized cannabis or made it legal for medical purposes, thus decreasing its value as part of Mexican trafficking organizations’ profit portfolio.

Mexican-produced methamphetamine has overtaken US sources of the drug and expanded into non-traditional methamphetamine markets inside the United States. According to the State Department, in 2017 Mexico seized 11.3 metric tons of methamphetamine, and as of August 2018, Mexican authorities had seized 130 metric tons of methamphetamine, including the seizure of some 50 metric tons of the drug in Sinaloa. The purity and potency of methamphetamine has driven up overdose deaths in the United States, according to the 2018 NDTA. Most Mexican trafficking organizations include a portion of the methamphetamine business in their trafficking operations and collectively control the wholesale methamphetamine distribution system inside the United States.

In stark contrast to the vicious life and death battle between the drug cartels, other illegal armed groups and organized crime networks, and the law enforcement officers who must risk their lives for an apparently futile cause, producing armed clashes on a daily basis which have claimed many thousands of lives and inflicted enormous carnage and suffering on the people of Mexico, is the serene and generous treatment of the white collar criminals who have benefitted most from the proceeds of the illicit trade in drugs, mostly from the US and Europe.

Major banks, such as HSBC and Wells Fargo, have repeatedly been caught laundering many billions of dollars from the drug cartels in Mexico and getting nothing more than a token slap on the wrist from the financial regulators in the form of a fine.

The entire US financial system is kept afloat by drug money according to some experts (examined in detail by Michael Ruppert and Catherine Austin Fitts, among many others).

Core features of the cartels’ evolution and structures

When President Calderón began his term as president in 2006 there were four major cartels: the Tijuana/Arellano Felix organization (AFO), the Sinaloa Cartel, the Juárez/Vicente Carillo Fuentes Organization (CFO), and the Gulf Cartel. Over the following years there were numerous disputes within and between the cartels and a large number of smaller groups were created, many by former members of the large cartels, others forming as smaller and more localised criminal networks grew and consolidated their activities and organization.

The territorial and functional boundaries of the groups, as well as their leadership and membership, are not always clear cut. Moreover, they are constantly changing in accordance with changes in the relations between key figures in each organization as well as relations between groups, which can also change rapidly depending on the area and activity involved. Hence, some analysts suggest that there could be as many as 20 major organizations if emerging factions and largely autonomous localised groups are included. In an analysis that is useful for penetrating the confusing proliferation of groups and activities, and appears to accurately identify some of the constant factors amidst the violence, misinformation and mayhem:

The Stratfor Global Intelligence group contends that the rival crime networks are best understood in regional groupings and that at least three geographic identities emerged by 2015, which essentially endure. Those umbrella groups are Tamaulipas State, Sinaloa State, and Tierra Caliente regional group. This framework also shows several states and regions of Mexico where the activities of these three regional groups mix, as in the eastern state of Veracruz, which is a mix of elements from the Tierra Caliente and the Tamaulipas umbrella groups. LINK

Geographic zones of influence of the main cartels in Mexico.By the end of Calderon’s term the US Drug Enforcement Administration identified seven major criminal organizations: Sinaloa, Los Zetas, Tijuana/AFO, Juárez/CFO, Beltrán Leyva, Gulf, and La Familia Michoacana. Of these groups, the Sinaloa and Gulf cartels in particular remain powerful despite the arrest of some of their leaders and losing some of their influence to other groups. The Cartel Jalisco-Nueva Generacion (CJNG) rose to prominence after 2010, particularly between 2013 and 2015, and is currently deemed by many analysts to be the most dangerous and largest Mexican cartel. CJNG has thrived since the demise of the Knights Templar, which was successfully targeted and largely dismantled by the Mexican authorities following the capture in February 2015 of its leader, Servando “La Tuta” Gomez, a former schoolteacher

In the Pacific Southwest, La Familia Michoacana—originally based in the state of Michoacán and influential in surrounding states—split apart in 2015. Its power steadily declined as a successor group, the Knights Templar, grew in prominence in the region known as the tierra caliente of Michoácan, Guerrero, and in parts of the neighbouring states Colima and Jalisco. As noted above, the Knights Templar group has since declined and has in turn been replaced by other groups in most of its former territories.

La Familia Michoacana and the Knights Templar began as a vigilante groups, claiming to protect the residents of Michoacán from other criminal groups. The Knights Templar was known for the trafficking and manufacture of methamphetamine, but the organization was also involved in the shipment of cocaine and marijuana towards the north. Both groups also preached a version of evangelical Christianity and claimed to be committed to social justice, while others attributed them as being responsible for much of the insecurity in Michoacán and surrounding states.

Up until 2008, the Beltrán Leyva Organization (BLO) was part of the Sinaloa federation and controlled access to the US border in Mexico’s Sonora state. The Beltrán Leyva brothers developed close ties with Sinaloa head Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzmán and his family, along with other Sinaloa-based top leadership. Following the arrest of the group’s leader (Alfredo Beltrán Levya) in 2008 the BLO broke off the alliance with the Sinaloa Cartel. Over the following years it lost much of its leadership in a series of operations by Mexico’s security forces and the group fragmented into a number of smaller groups in 2010.

Several splinter organizations have arisen from the remnants of the BLO since 2010, including the Guerreros Unidos and Los Rojos. Los Rojos operates in Guerrero and is reported to be heavily involved in kidnapping and extortion for revenue as well as trafficking cocaine. The Guerreros Unidos is reported to traffic cocaine as far north as Chicago in the United States and is thought to operate primarily in the central and Pacific states of Guerrero, México, and Morelos. According to Mexican authorities, the Guerreros Unidos were responsible for the execution of 43 Mexican teacher trainees, who were handed over to them by local authorities in Iguala, Guerrero in 2014.

According to the DEA, as of 2018 the BLO comprised a group of factions that work under the umbrella of the BLO name and traffic marijuana, cocaine, heroin, and methamphetamine, with specific subgroups relying on alliances with the CJNG, the Juárez Cartel and elements of Los Zetas to move drugs across the border, while maintaining distribution links in the US cities of Phoenix, Los Angeles, Chicago, and Atlanta. Inside Mexico, the groups are thought to remain influential in the states of Morelos, Guerrero, Nayarit, and Sinaloa.

The Gulf Cartel and Los Zetas

The Gulf Cartel, based in north-eastern Mexico, had a long history of dominance in terms of power and profits, with the height of its power in the early 2000s. However, the Gulf Cartel lost a considerable part of its power and in particular its military capability when its ‘enforcers’ —Los Zetas, who were organized from highly trained former Mexican military personnel (including airborne special forces members) —split to form a separate group and turned against their former employers, engaging in an extremely violent competition for territory and markets. The military training, discipline and weaponry of Los Zetas, combined with their absolute ruthlessness and brutality, brought the cartel violence in Mexico to a new level of destruction, lethality and terror that also had a much more devastating impact on communities where they had a significant presence. According to a report by the US Congressional Research Service:

“Most reports indicate that the Zetas were created by a group of 30 lieutenants and sub-lieutenants who deserted from the Mexican military’s Special Mobile Force Group (Grupos Aeromóviles de Fuerzas Especiales, GAFES) to join the Gulf Cartel in the late 1990s.” LINK

Originally based in the border city of Matamoros, Tamaulipas, the Gulf Cartel expanded and eventually controlled operations in other Mexican states along the Gulf of Mexico, becoming a transnational smuggling operation with agents in Central and South America. In the 1980s, its leader, Juan García Abrego, developed ties with Colombia’s Cali Cartel as well as with key personnel within the Mexican federal police. García Abrego was captured in 1996 near Monterrey, Mexico. Nonetheless, the group continued to grow and it was the main competitor challenging the Sinaloa Cartel for trafficking routes in the early 2000s before the violent separation of Los Zetas in 2010 which significantly affected its operations.

Los Zetas established a significant presence in several Mexican states along the Gulf, and extended their reach to Ciudad Juárez (Chihuahua) and several Pacific states, also operating in Central and South America. Unlike many other groups, Los Zetas never attempted to win the support of local populations in the territories where they operated, and they are widely reported to have killed many civilians. They are linked to several particularly gruesome massacres, including the 2011 firebombing of a casino in Monterrey that killed 53 people and the 2011 torture and mass execution of 193 migrants who were traveling through northern Mexico by bus. Los Zetas are reputed to kill those who cannot pay extortion fees or who refuse to work for them, often targeting migrants.

Los Zetas lost a succession of their most important leaders in joint police/ military operations during 2012-2013, and in 2015 Mexican authorities claimed that more than 30 of the group’s leaders had been arrested or killed. Nonetheless, at least two factions are still in existence, the ‘Old School Zetas’ (Escuela Vieja, or EV) and the Cartel del Noreste (CDN). It is thought that other local gangs have appropriated the Los Zetas ‘brand’ on occasion in an effort to take advantage of their fierce reputation.

In 2014 Mexican federal police targeted a dozen Gulf and Zeta bosses they believed responsible for the wave of violence in Tamaulipas in 2014, and analysts subsequently reported that the structures of both the Gulf Cartel and Los Zetas were decimated by federal operations as well as by disputes between competing factions. Both groups now operate largely as autonomous fragmented cells that often take on new names to disguise their identity and the full scope of their activities.

From 2014 through 2016, violence continued in the state of Tamaulipas with regular reports of kidnappings, daytime shootings, and burned-down bars and restaurants in towns and cities such as the port city of Tampico. It appears that the remnants of both groups have expanded into other criminal operations, such as fuel theft, kidnapping, human smuggling and widespread extortion. In 2018 the DEA maintained that the Gulf Cartel continued to operate with its main focus on the cocaine and marijuana trade, but also expanding into heroin and methamphetamine, smuggling the majority of its drug shipments into South Texas through the border region between the Rio Grande Valley and South Padre Island.

The Sinaloa Cartel

The Sinaloa Cartel also has a long history, with its traditional base of support in western Mexico. The cartel also has a reputation for brutality and fought a long campaign to establish control over transport and distribution routes through the border states of Chihuahua and Baja California and maintain its status as the dominant cartel in the country.

For many years the group was widely regarded as the most powerful drug trafficking syndicate in the Western Hemisphere; at its peak, the Sinaloa leadership successfully corrupted public officials from the local to the national level both inside Mexico and abroad, and was estimated to have operations in some 50 countries. As one of Mexico’s most prominent and visible (if elusive) criminal organizations, each of its major leaders was designated a ‘kingpin’ by US authorities in the early 2000s. At the top of the hierarchy was Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzmán, listed in 2001, Ismael Zambada Garcia (“El Mayo”), listed in 2002, and Juan Jose “El Azul” Esparragoza Moreno, listed in 2003.

According to official estimates, the Sinaloa Cartel controlled between 40%-60% of Mexico’s drug trade by 2012 and had annual earnings calculated to be around $3 billion, and for many years it was identified by the DEA as being the primary trafficker of drugs to the United States. In 2008, a federation dominated by the Sinaloa Cartel (which included the Beltrán Leyva organization and the Juárez Cartel) disintegrated, leading to a battle among the former partners that sparked one of the most violent periods in recent Mexican history.

The Sinaloa Cartel has adopted a more decentralized structure of loosely linked semi-autonomous organizations, which has made it more susceptible to conflict when factions break away under mid-level commanders. However, the decentralized structure has also enabled it to adapt quickly in the highly competitive and unstable environment and withstand the loss of key personnel following its targeting by Mexican and US authorities.

This was demonstrated in the aftermath of the arrest of the Sinaloa Cartel’s founder Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzmán in 2014, who was extradited to the United States on 19 January 2017. The federal operation to capture and detain Guzmán, allegedly with support from US intelligence, was viewed as a major victory for the government of Peña Nieto. Nonetheless, the arrest did not signify any improvement in either the security situation in the country or in the continued dominance of the major cartels over the illegal economy and territorial and social control in many parts of the country.

Following the arrest of El Chapo and the death of one of his most trusted deputies (“El Azul” Esparragoza Moreno) in 2014, the head of the Sinaloa Cartel was widely assumed to be Guzmán’s partner, Ismael Zambada Garcia, alias “El Mayo”. It is generally thought that he continues in that leadership role, together with at least one of El Chapo’s sons. In accordance with its more decentralized structure, Sinaloa operatives control certain territories through a network of regional bosses who conduct business and violence through alliances with each other and local gangs specializing in specific localities and activities.

Although El Chapo’s detention didn’t result in the demise of the Sinaloa Cartel or reduce violence and corruption, it does however appear to have encouraged violent competition from the Cartel Jalisco-New Generation (CJNG), which was formed when its leaders split from the Sinaloa Cartel in 2010. During 2016 and 2017 CJNG expanded quickly by displacing or liquidating its competitors in many areas.

There was a major scandal in October last year when Ovidio Guzmán López, one of El Chapo’s sons, was briefly detained in the town of Culiacán. Upon his arrest, his associates – widely reported as belonging to the Sinaloa Cartel – effectively took the entire town hostage and threatened to unleash a massacre. Faced with the prospect of an extremely bloody showdown, an emergency meeting of the security cabinet of the national government (headed by the Secretaries of National Defence, the Marines, Public Security and Citizen Protection, and the recently created National Guard) decided to release the captive and the armed bandits melted away, leaving the town with thirteen dead and many more wounded. LINK

The incident demonstrated beyond a doubt that, although the cartel may have declined in power relative to its peak, it still remains a very formidable force.

Last week the Mexican President provided more details explaining the reasons for the decision to release Ovidio Guzman:

“The members of the national security cabinet met and closely followed the ongoing developments and made decisions that I completely support because the situation became very difficult. Many citizens, many people, many human beings were at risk and it was decided to protect people’s lives and I agreed because it is not about (creating) massacres.”

He explained that the operation was carried out by the Mexican Army, based on an arrest warrant for a suspected criminal, but “there was a very violent reaction…”

The arrest triggered an immediate general mobilization of crime groups throughout the city of Culiacán and they even took control of the toll booths on the main roads and openly deployed their forces in other municipalities in the state, such as El Fuerte.

Lopez Obrador reaffirmed that his decision was made to protect citizens because “you cannot put out the fire with fire” and reiterated that his government is pursuing a different strategy than that of the previous governments.

“We do not want more dead, we do not want war, it is difficult to understand for some but the strategy that was being applied previously turned the country into a massive cemetery,” he said of the governments of Felipe Calderón (2006-2012) and Enrique Peña Nieto (2012- 2018), which produced more than 250,000 deaths and 40,000 missing (‘forced disappearances’) from the so-called war on drug trafficking.

“It is not easy (fighting crime). It is a process, it is not easy because the problem of violence has become entrenched throughout the country and we have to face two mafias, white collar crime and illegal armed groups, that is what we face.”

The incident in Culiacán has demonstrated the enormous control that the Sinaloa Cartel and its cells still have over the region, which had been relatively calm in the preceding period. LINK

The Cartel Jalisco-Nueva Generacion (CJNG)

As described in a previous report, the CJNG is now widely considered to be the most powerful cartel in Mexico. Also known as the Zeta Killers, the CJNG appeared in 2011 with a roadside display of the bodies of 35 alleged members of Los Zetas. The group is based in Jalisco state with operations in central Mexico, including the states of Colima, Michoacán, Mexico State, Guerrero, and Guanajuato, where it has grown to be a dominant force.

The CJNG reportedly served as an enforcement group for the Sinaloa Cartel until mid-2013, and subsequently entered into fierce competition with its former patrons for territory and markets.

The group appears to have been able to maintain a high level of cohesion amidst the widespread fragmentation, dispersal and mutation of its rivals, and its undisputed leader is Ruben Oseguera Cervantes, alias ‘El Mencho’.

In 2015 and 2016 it was described by Mexican and US authorities respectively as one of the world’s most prolific and violent drug trafficking organizations, with operations throughout half of Mexico’s territory, along the East Pacific coast from Chile to Canada, as well as possessing significant networks and operations in Europe and Asia.

According to a 2019 report by the US Congressional Research Service:

CJNG’s efforts to dominate key ports on both the Pacific and Gulf Coasts have allowed it to consolidate important components of the global narcotics supply chain. In particular, CJNG asserts control over the ports of Veracruz, Mazanillo, and Lázaro Cardenas, which has given the group access to precursor chemicals that flow into Mexico from China and other parts of Latin America. As a result, CJNG has been able to pursue an aggressive growth strategy, underwritten by U.S. demand for Mexican methamphetamine, heroin, and fentanyl. LINK

The CJNG recently claimed that there is at least one ‘State Cartel’ operating in Mexico. Although the allegations were extremely vague in many respects, there is no doubt that senior figures in the State have collaborated with one or more cartels, and that this is a common occurrence (as has occurred in Colombia). Indeed, up to 20 former provincial governors are being investigated for varying degrees of cooperation with illegal armed groups; it is certain that a much larger large number of mayors have also been involved in such schemes in some way, given the enormous power of the cartels in many localities – as noted in the previous report by South Front, the 2018 elections in Mexico were the bloodiest on record, with approximately 37 mayors, former mayors or candidates for mayor being assassinated.

The Mexican cartel “Jalisco New Generation” (CJNG) recently released two short videos with denunciations of the San Luis Potosi government. In the videos, they refer to the State’s government as the ‘Ministerial Cartel’, and further claim that the head of the Federal State police, Jose Guadalupe Castillo Celestino, is the head of the State ‘cartel’.

The CJNG also asserted that several recent killings in San Luis Potosi were not a result of its activities. To find the guilty party, according to the video statements, authorities had to investigate Castillo Celestino, who struck deals with the cartels of the Northeast, the Gulf and Los Alemanes, ‘selling’ the criminal organizations the right to operate in specific areas and also arranging for the purchase of real estate with drug money.

The Jalisco cartel also added that it should not be thought that the state governor was not aware of the transactions. The local governments in most of the areas affected are also often either incapable of countering cartel activities, or are on their payroll.

Although the chief of the Federal Police and at least one provincial governor were specifically mentioned in the two videos released by the CJNG, it remains unclear whether the CJNG is alleging that some State officials are collaborating with other cartels, or whether they have established a specific illegal armed group (or groups) throughout the   country to take advantage of the breakdown in social order, violence and corruption to take over lucrative illegal markets and, perhaps, terrorize and displace rural and Indigenous communities so that political and economic partners can take over their territories and resources.

Again, any or all of these developments would have precedents and parallels in Colombia, where the Colombian police and US law enforcement and intelligence agencies (primarily the DEA, also probably the CIA) cooperated with the rivals and enemies of the Medellin Cartel, and Pablo Escobar in particular, resulting in the liquidation of the criminal group. However, as with the arrest of El Chapo, the killing of Escobar did absolutely nothing to improve the situation in the country, as the void was rapidly filled by other illegal armed groups. The Colombian military, and to a lesser extent police, have on repeated occasions collaborated with one paramilitary or other illegal armed group in order to take out another group.

Many aspects of these strategies and interactions between Colombian and US State security forces, military contractors and paramilitary groups are examined in the online book, In Search of Colombia: Social and political fragments and perspectives from the past to the present.

Community Self-Defence Organizations

One of the initiatives that has emerged from some of the communities most affected by the violence and predation of the illegal armed groups in rural and remote areas in Michoacán is the creation of community-based self-defence groups. Local business owners, who had grown weary of widespread extortion and violent crime that was ignored by corrupt local and state police, provided seed funding to establish the community-based militias in Michoacán, but authorities were concerned that some of the self-defence groups had extended their search for resources and weapons to competing crime syndicates and might develop more enduring relations with them.

While the concept is not by any means a panacea, and can cause even more problems for local communities as has been proven in the case of Colombia where they usually served as armed militias and death squads for local political and economic elites and landlords to terrorize and forcibly displace rural and remote communities in collaboration with military and police forces, if carefully implemented on a case-by-case basis under the control and with the full participation of the relevant communities it can at least provide the communities with an opportunity to be able to defend themselves until reinforcements can arrive.

In early 2014, the Mexican government began to implement a policy of incorporating members of the self-defence groups into legal law enforcement, giving them the option to disarm or register themselves and their weapons as part of the “Rural Police Force,” despite concerns about competing cartels corrupting these forces or the potential for the groups to morph into predatory paramilitary forces, as occurred in Colombia. The federal police and the Rural Police Force had a brief successful period of cooperation, however this ended with the arrests of the two self-defence force leaders (as well as dozens of members) in spring 2014. The arrests caused tension between the self-defence movement and federal police, and contributed to a renewal of high rates of violence in the area.

The concept has thus far not been incorporated into the new security strategies elaborated by President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who has created a specialized National Guard in an attempt to eradicate the corrupt elements of the police and military and severe the links that have been developed between many of their personnel and the illegal armed groups, however it is not clear that reorganizing the security forces alone will be able to achieve this as they must inevitably be made of the same basic elements in a new uniform.  The concept also appears not to be favoured by the leadership of the conventional security forces.

In some areas however the communities themselves have persisted with the initiative after having found themselves confronted by and at the mercy of apparent, and at times obvious, collaboration between illegal armed groups, police (whether federal or municipal) and military personnel (as well as politicians, landlords and corporate developers in more than a few cases). It could be argued that it is the height of cynicism and hypocrisy to deny communities the opportunity to defend themselves with security forces drawn from and selected and overseen by those same communities if they should choose to do so, particularly given the failure of the public security forces to protect them and hunt down and capture the illegal armed groups in their territories. In contrast, moreover, the economically well-off are usually very well attended by the security forces if they request assistance, and generally face very few obstacles to hire as many private security guards as they wish.

Even during the ‘lockdown’ measures implemented since the outbreak of the Coronavirus, in many cases the illegal armed groups have been able to move around freely to undertake their predatory activities and terrorize local communities in rural and remote areas.

Since the COVID-19 pandemic began, food bank lines stretching for miles were seen across the US have come to symbolize the financial destruction of households triggered by an abrupt closing of businesses and unprecedented job losses. 

Tens of millions of people lost their jobs, and millions more turned to food banks. The demand for food pantries was at record levels as the federal government deployed the National Guard to manage food supply chains to thwart disruptions. 

In March, April, and May, food bank systems nationwide reported unprecedented demand as millions of hungry, jobless, and broke Americans, with insurmountable debts and no savings, had no meaningful way of putting food on their tables. To be more specific, food security among households in San Antonio, Texas, was a huge issue, resulting in more than 23 million pounds of food, serving 240,000 cars at drive-through distributions and 5,800 home visits – was seen at the San Antonio Food Bank over the three months. 

During the period, retails sales bounced modestly after a stunning record decline – mostly because a quarter of all personal income was derived from the government. Essentially what this means is that the Trump administration activated the money helicopters to avoid a total collapse of the US economy – via unemployment and emergency benefits, welfare checks, and so on.

So here’s the issue explained by Twitter handle The Long View – the account notes the stimulus checks that have “bounced” retail sales “like a rubber band” are “all over in a few weeks & with the new uptick we likely see at least six more weeks of contraction with no plug. The real hit starts now.” 

And Maybe, The Long View is right, because, while President Trump has given several press conferences where he declared that the economy is quickly recovering: “We’ve been talking about the V,” the president said. “This is better than a V. This is a rocket ship” – food bank lines could be, once again, reappearing… 

Twitter handle Alastair Williamson posted a video Sunday shows dozens of vehicles waiting in line at what appears to be a food bank in Baltimore, Maryland. We were able to pinpoint the location via looking at local businesses in the video, able to determine the video was taken on York Road in Lutherville-Timonium, MD, outside the Maryland State Fair. 

It appears the Maryland State Fair & Agricultural Society, Inc. has been running a food bank out of the fairgrounds for several months. 

So about that V-recovery? Sunday drive down Main Street and food bank line spotted. pic.twitter.com/KC3jfSdwUd

— Alastair Williamson (@StockBoardAsset) June 28, 2020

On Twitter user asked: “How can so many people afford cars and not food?” 

Williamson replied: “their auto payments likely deferred for a certain period.” 

Another Twitter user said: “7M US auto owners/borrowers are 90 days + in arrears.”

What this all suggests is that households remain devastated – President Trump’s helicopter drops of free money are likely wearing off as people are now having difficulty putting food on the table. 

As a consumption hangover is imminent, the Trump administration will need to unleash more stimulus/socialist checks to broke and jobless Americans – though, as per The Long View, it appears consumption is set to plunge before the next checks arrive. 

The perfect storm of weak consumption and the emergence of a second coronavirus wave could crush households and businesses in a second-round – food bank lines are becoming the new normal. 

Via AlMasdarNews.com, 

The former Israeli Defense Minister, Avigdor Lieberman, said that Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah are pushing Israel to the brink.

In an interview with Israel’s national Hebrew-language daily newspaper Maariv on Friday, the former Israeli Defense Minister had expressed his concern about Iran possessing enriched uranium, which he said is eight times the permitted amount according to the nuclear agreement, and that a month ago Iran successfully launched a spy satellite into orbit.

Lieberman further charged that Hezbollah is now building a precision missile factory in honor of the late Iranian Quds Force commander, General Qassem Soleimani, which is pushing Israel to the brink, claiming that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has no plans to confront them.

Lieberman said Iran is continuing its ongoing policies in its regular military programs and continues to fund Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Islamic Jihad, although Iran faces enormous economic difficulties of its own.

However, despite Lieberman’s claims, Israel has in fact intensified their attacks against the Iranian forces and allies inside Syria this year, with multiple attacks taking place each month.

Footage of Iran IRGC’s satellite launch. Commanders say it has image & intelligence gathering & defense capabilities. Entering space a “necessity not choice,” they said.#Iran pic.twitter.com/Jm84Lmkhai

— Farnaz Fassihi (@farnazfassihi) April 22, 2020

Last week, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) were believed to have bombed not only eastern Hama (Salamiyah District), but also, a number of sites between the Al-Sweida and Deir Ezzor governorates.

43% of all COVID-19 deaths in the United States are residents or employees of nursing homes or other long-term care (LTC) facilities, according to the New York Times (which fails to mention that New York Governor Andrew Cuomo ordered NY nursing homes to accept coronavirus patients from hospitals). Nursing homes, meanwhile, account for just 11% of all COVID-19 cases in the United States.

To date, just over 125,000 people in the US have died of COVID-19, 54,000 of which were linked to LTC facilities.

By state, New Hampshire LTC facilities are at the top of the list – accounting 80% of COVID-19 deaths in the state. Rhode Island and Minnesota are tied at 77%, while Connecticut comes in at 73% of deaths linked to nursing homes.

The share of deaths linked to long-term care facilities for older adults is even starker at the state level. In 24 states, the number of residents and workers who have died accounts for either half or more than half of all deaths from the virus.

Infected people linked to nursing homes also die at a higher rate than the general population. The median case fatality rate — the number of deaths divided by the number of cases — at facilities with reliable data is 17 percent, significantly higher than the 5 percent case fatality rate nationwide. –New York Times

And while New York ranks at the bottom of the pack when it comes to LTC facility deaths as a percentage of overall deaths in the state, New York nursing homes come in 2nd on the list after New Jersey in terms of overall deaths in LTC facilities, at 6,432.

this is horrifying to look at

NYC saw a spike in nursing home deaths to 35X prev year baseline

that’s 3X as much as detroit and cleveland barely budged

i’ll wager florida looks like cleveland

this really drives home the carnage cuomo’s policy of focing NH to take cov+ set off pic.twitter.com/Sz84fJwHoV

— el gato malo (@boriquagato) June 28, 2020

Perhaps protecting the elderly and those with comorbidities would have been preferable to tanking the economy with months-long lockdowns.

Submitted by Jan Nieuwenhuijs from Voima Insight.

For thousands of years gold is the ultimate store of value. Currently, gold is undervalued as there are massive bubbles in asset markets and central banks continue to print money, which supports these bubbles. This is an unsustainable situation; and when the bubbles burst the gold price will rise.

Gold is the ultimate store of value, as it’s the only globally accepted financial asset without counterparty risk, and it has preserved its purchasing power throughout history. In the long-term, the stability of gold’s value is unparalleled.

Because gold is scarce and immutable, it has been used as money for thousands of years. Gold’s first use was for adornments—jewelry, regalia, and prestige goods. As early as the 5th millennium BC gold beads of different sizes and purities were manufactured through serial production in Varna, Bulgaria. The semi-finished products were worn in a necklace, and possibly traded.

Gold beads from Varna, Bulgaria, 5th millennium BC. Courtesy Leusch, V., Pernicka, E, and Armbruster, B. 2014. Chalcolithic gold from Varna – Provenance, circulation, processing, and function.

Around 3000 BC weights and scales were invented, which allowed precise measurement of materials and enhanced trade. Gold developed as a store of value, unit of account, and symbol of wealth. By 600 BC coinage was invented in Lydia, what is now Turkey, which promoted gold to be used as a currency. In many civilizations ever since gold was either officially money, or used as a store of value.

Since 1971, the World has been on a pure “paper money” standard despite the fact that bank notes are hardly used nowadays. Most of the time, what is used as money are digital book entries. Whether in paper or digital form, money issued by governments is commonly referred to as fiat money.

The Price of Gold Goes Up

Because fiat currencies can be created boundlessly, over time their value declines, and thus the price of gold denominated in fiat money goes up.

In August 1971—when the last remnants of the gold standard were abandoned—the gold price was $41 U.S. dollars per troy ounce. At the end of May 2020, the gold price had reached $1,729 dollars per ounce, an increase of more than 4,100%.

Although, the gold price doesn’t go up in a straight line, it has always “caught up.” Over time, the price of gold has always compensated for devaluing fiat currencies. Gold’s purchasing power has remained markedly stable in the long run.

Gold Preserves its Purchasing Power

Governments aim for stable prices of consumer goods. But with the seductive ability to “print” money, they always create too much. The printed currency loses value, and prices of consumer goods go up.

Because the gold price keeps up with prices of consumer goods, gold preserves its purchasing power. Since 1800, gold’s purchasing power in the U.S. has been remarkably stable. It became more volatile after 1971, but has kept trending slightly upwards.

This is the power of gold: it preserves personal as well as generational wealth.

So, while fiat currencies lose their value relative to consumer goods, gold has gained in value relative to consumer goods, and not only in the U.S.

On the Voima Gold homepage you can see that since the euro was created in 1999, the gold price in euros has gone up by 550%. When corrected for (consumer price) inflation, gold in the eurozone has increased in purchasing power by 350% in 20 years.

Gold Keeps up With Other Financial Assets

Hedge Fund Manager Ray Dalio has compared storing value in gold versus government bills (bonds with a maturity of less than one year), since the classic gold standard has been gradually dismantled (1912). Government bills are thought to be safer than bank deposits, although both have counterparty risk, unlike gold.

Dalio computed the annual returns in real terms, which is done by subtracting inflation from interest rates. Gold doesn’t have an interest rate—when it’s not lent—it just goes up in price. The result over 100 years is that in major economies the average annual return of government bills was -0.2%, while gold’s return was 2.2%.

The poor result of the bills is because they are denominated in currencies that have been strongly debased since 1912. The U.S. dollar, for example, lost more than 98% of its value against gold over this time horizon.

Compared to stocks and long-term bonds gold’s performance is impressive as well. With dividends reinvested, gold has kept up with the U.S. stock market since 1971, and outperformed it since 1999. Although, gold did worse than the U.S. stock market since 2009.

With interest reinvested, gold has outperformed U.S. Treasuries (government bonds) since 1971, 1999, and 2009.

Performances of all assets in the chart above are measured by their compound annual growth rate, and are not corrected for inflation.

As you can see, inflation is included in the chart, and “U.S. cash” doesn’t keep up with it. Clearly, the ones that do not own gold, but have a bank savings account, will see their wealth diminish.

Every Investment Portfolio Needs Gold

Regularly, when stock markets crash investors flee to gold, causing the gold price to rise. Stocks and gold are often negatively correlated. For investment purposes gold is an excellent diversification. When gold is added to an investment portfolio it lowers volatility and improves performance. Owning gold is for everyone and for all seasons.

CPM Group calculated that the best risk-return balance of an investment portfolio is reached when it includes 20% of gold (next to an equal share of stocks and bonds).

Other studies suggest a different allocation of gold. The sweet spot depends on your time horizon, risk appetite, and the size of your portfolio.

The Future of Gold

As mentioned, since 1971 the price of gold hasn’t gone up in a straight line. Naturally, the question arises, is it now a good time to buy gold? I believe it is.

I expect the gold price to rise going forward, because there are currently huge bubbles in asset markets and central banks continue to print money to support these bubbles. This year alone, the Federal Reserve has expanded its balance sheet from $4 trillion to $7 trillion dollars. A whopping $3 trillion dollars have been printed in just 4 months. The stock “price to earnings ratio” has reached record levels. Needless to say, this is a highly unsustainable situation; and when the bubbles burst more investors will turn to gold.

Currently, the stock market is overvalued versus gold, as can be seen in the chart below. Gold will outperform stocks in the years ahead.

Since 1971, instead of gold being the centerpiece of the international monetary system, government bonds have taken its place. Capital has been invested in sovereign bonds based on the (false) belief they are risk-free. Now, the sovereign bond market is in a bubble.

One sign of the bubble is that debt obligations of many developed nations have a negative interest rate. This reflects these securities are strongly overvalued. Another sign is that the world has never been this much in debt. World debt to GDP is currently well over 330%.

Over-investing in sovereign bonds—incentivized by central banks—has caused governments to borrow beyond their means. For these countries their debt to GDP levels are skyrocketing, and are unsustainable. In the years ahead, global debt levels can only be lowered through debt restructuring or inflation, and both are bullish for gold.

Data provided to me by CPM Group, shows that in 1960 gold made up 5% of all global financial assets. At the end of 2019, this percentage was 0.52%. There is ample upside for gold. In nominal terms, and—although to a lesser extent—in real terms, too.

The Threat of Bank Bail-ins

Last but not least, a serious threat for people’s fiat savings held at commercial banks, are “bail-ins.” In 2014, the European Union adopted the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive. The implemented rules dictate that when a bank becomes insolvent, the banks’ shareholders and creditors pay the costs through a bail-in mechanism.

Money held at banks is technically a loan to the bank. This makes depositors “unsecured creditors” of the bank. Under the current rules, when the bank becomes insolvent, deposits will be seized to save the bank. Outside the EU bail-in rules have been implemented as well.

The reason why people are still holding large sums of fiat money at banks, is because many aren’t aware of the risks.

Conclusion

Above is a list of reasons why it makes sense to own gold. Gold is the ultimate store of value, and offers protection from inflation caused by reckless money printing by central banks. Currently, governments want inflation, as politically it’s the easiest way of lowering the debt burden. On May 7, 2020, Ray Dalio wrote, “Printing money is the most expedient, least well-understood, and most common big way of restructuring debts.”

The stock market is currently overvalued, as economic growth around the world is collapsing due to the corona crisis. Stock indices haven’t corrected yet, because they are high on the newly printed money. On June 24, 2020, Money Manager Jesse Felder wrote (based on calculations), “the current disconnect between stock prices and sustainable profits is, in fact, greater than anything we have seen in modern history.” Hence, I believe gold will perform better than stocks in the years ahead.

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A Lebanese businessman and central witness in former special counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation was sentenced to 10 years in prison after pleading guilty in January to sex crimes involving minors.

Lobbyist George Nader – who had ties to both the Clinton and Trump campaigns during the 2016 US election for Middle Eastern associates (and was later indicted for illegal contributions to Hillary Clinton’s campaign) – was intercepted at Dulles Airport in January 2018 by agents working for Mueller. A search of his iPhones revealed child pornography, which we imagine was used as leverage to gain his cooperation.

Three months later, prosecutors filed charges against Nader for the images – however they were filed under seal and kept secret from Nader’s lawyers while he was working with Mueller.

In July of 2017 – 15 months after Mueller let a serial pedophile roam the streets in the hopes he’d be able to nail Trump, Nader was finally indicted on both the child porn and for sex-trafficking a 14-year-old boy.

Keep in mind, Mueller knew about Nader’s 1991 conviction on child pornography charges in the US – for which he served only six months in a halfway house thanks to his role in helping to free American hostages in Beirut. He was also convicted in the Czech Republic in 2003 on 10 counts of having sex with underage boys, and eventually received a one-year prison sentence.

Months after Nader’s indictment for pedophilia, he was indicted on campaign finance charges in December 2019, along with Ahmad “Andy” Khawaja – a Lebanese-American businessman who has donated to Clinton, Adam Schiff, Joe Biden, Chris Coons, Dianne Feinstein and a host of other Democrats who received up to $3 million in campaign funds. He also gave $1 million to Priorities USA, the primary super PAC supporting Clinton, and $1 million to Trump’s inaugural fund.

Khawaja was appointed to the US Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) by Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) in June of 2018.

Nader embarked on the scheme in a bid to gain influence in Clinton’s circle while reporting to a foreign official, according to the Justice Department.

Among his alleged co-conspirators is Ahmad “Andy” Khawaja, the CEO of a payments processing company, according to the Justice Department news release announcing the unsealing of the indictment, which was made by a grand jury in the District of Columbia.

Nader conspired with Khawaja to secretly fund $3.5 million in donations that were made in the name of Khawaja, his wife and his firm, Allied Wallet Inc., according to the indictment. –Politico

In 2016, Khawaja co-hosted an August fundraiser for Clinton which included a laundry list of high-profile guests, including Univision owner Haim Saban, movie mogul Jeffrey Katzenberg and basketball legend Magic Johnson, according to the report. According to the indictment, Khawaja conspired with six other individuals to conceal his excessive contributions. Others who were indicted were also linked to donations to Clinton and other Democrats.

The indictment quotes an alleged encrypted message that Nader sent an official from Foreign Country A via WhatsApp after Khawaja contributed $275,000 and invited Nader to attend and April 16, 2016, event for presidential Candidate 1.

“Wonderful meeting with the Big Lady . . . Can’t wait to tell you about it,” Nader allegedly wrote, in an apparent reference to Clinton.

The indictment noted that political committees that received funding unwittingly submitted false disclosure reports and were presumably victims of the plot. Still, Hillary Clinton apparently attended numerous events, including small gatherings, with Nader, who on July 19, 2016, messaged the foreign official a photograph of him with Candidate 1’s spouse — an apparent reference to Bill Clinton — at Khawaja’s home. –Washington Post

Nader is also known to have interacted with Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, according to The Hill, a well as former strategist Steve Bannon and Michael Flynn. He is also reported to have helped arrange Trump’s 2017 trip to Saudi Arabia – interactions which likely piqued Mueller’s interest.

President Trump’s economic COVID-19 response, through massive fiscal and monetary stimuli, was expected to generate a V-shaped recovery ahead of the elections. We noted, all along, there was never a snowball’s chance in hell that economic growth would revert to 2019 levels later this year; nevertheless, the labor market would fully recover. 

If readers recall, President Trump has given several press conferences where he declared that the economy is quickly recovering: “We’ve been talking about the V,” the president said. “This is better than a V. This is a rocket ship.”

A new report via Yelp, tilted “Local Economic Impact Report,” debunks the V-shaped narrative and tells a much different story of slow reopenings and widespread permanent closures, all suggesting the economic devastation continues to crush the economy with no recovery in sight. 

Yelp data shows large swathes of Americans remain in deep recession through mid-June. Since April 19, only 20% of the 175,000 Yelp-registered stores that were closed during lockdowns have reopened. 

“As of June 15, there were nearly 140,000 total business closures on Yelp since March 1. In April, we reported more than 175,000 business closures, indicating that more than 20% of businesses closed in April have reopened.

“Las Vegas, NV, endured the highest number of closures relative to the number of businesses in the city (1,921 total closures), while Los Angeles, CA, had the largest total number of closures (11,774 total closures).” 

 

Yelp makes a shocking claim: “Of all business closures on Yelp since March 1, 41% are permanent closures.” 

“Our data shows the largest spikes of permanent closures occurred in March, followed by May and June, indicating that the businesses that were already struggling had to permanently close right away and the businesses that were trying to hold on, but unable to weather the COVID-19 storm, were forced to shutter in recent months.” 

Of the businesses that shuttered operations, restaurants and shopping/retail have led with the most permanent closures.  

“Among those with the highest rate of business closures are shopping and retail (27,663 closed businesses), restaurants (23,981 closed businesses), beauty (15,348 closed businesses) and fitness (5,589 closed businesses).

“Retail was by far the hardest hit, experiencing the highest number of total closures, with the average daily rate continuing to increase since March. Of all closures on Yelp since March 1, 20% are for retail businesses and 35% of closed retail businesses are indicated as permanent on Yelp.

“In March, Restaurants had the highest number of business closures, compared to other industries, and have continued to close at high rates. Of the businesses that closed, 17% are restaurants, and 53% of those restaurant closures are indicated as permanent on Yelp. Restaurants run on thin margins and can sometimes take months or even years to break even, resulting in this higher rate of permanent closures.”

What this all means is the recovery is losing steam. Consumer spending is set to plunge again this summer as the Paycheck Protection Program and other stimulus has run its course. With no recovery – more business closures/ likely more permanent closures and increased job losses are ahead.  

To make matters worse, the virus pandemic is re-emerging, resulting in states like Florida, Texas, and California to reverse reopenings, which will further pressure businesses.  

Readers should review our latest pieces on severe economic damage that is crushing the economy and how recovery might not be seen until 2023: 

• 25,000 More Store Closures Expected As Pandemic-Fueled “Retail Apocalypse” Rolls On
• 25% Of US Restaurants Will Never Reopen: Opentable
• Killed By COVID-Lockdowns: 1000s Of Shut-Down US Businesses Will Be Closed Permanently
• 52% Of Small Businesses “Expect To Be Out Of Business Within Six Months”; Shocking New Survey

By now, readers should realize the deep economic scarring by COVID-19 will have long-term impacts and a recovery that is years away.  

Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

The pressure is already mounting for state and local governments to move again toward coerced stay at home orders and mandatory business closures.

The constant drumbeat of headlines designed to convince people to adopt new draconian government controls is more of less exactly the same as what it was back in March. Arizona “lost control of the epidemic” one headline proclaims, while another insists “ICU beds full.” A government bureaucrat in Texas says the situation is “apocalyptic” and Bloomberg dutifully features the word in its headline. The governor of California is threatening another stay-at-home order. The Texas governor has re-imposed some restrictions. Florida has “paused” its scaling back of lockdown edicts.

Americans should expect more of this as the year proceeds. Once we arrive at September, hospitalizations due to the usual winter diseases like flu will begin to mount. At that point, the daily headlines about “full” or nearly-full hospitals will be a daily or even hourly occurrence.

There is no doubt politicians and government “experts” like Anthony Fauci will briefly emerge from their luxury homes and gated communities to demand that middle class and working class Americans be once again forced to abandon their jobs, take pay cuts, and sit at home. (The politicians decreeing lockdowns, of course, will keep collecting their six-figure salaries.)

But there’s a problem with the politicos’ plans. They assume Americans will comply with the stay-at-home orders to the same degree they did back in March and April.

This may not be a very prudent assumption. This will be due to at least two reasons.

First, more Americans now doubt the official narrative on the disease.

Second, Americans are now in a worse economic position compared to the time of the first lockdown.

Both of these factors will contribute to more resistance to lockdowns.

In other words, a second lockdown will be more difficult – both economically and politically – than the first. Economic pain will mount as political doubts grow.

The Economic Threat

A second round of lockdowns also poses a very large economic risk to families.

Advocates of coercive lockdowns have long tried to portray opponents of lockdowns as just “people who want a haircut.”  The reality is a lot more grim than that, however, and the threat to the economic well-being of many families is going to make a second round of lockdowns far worse than the first.

Many Americans voluntarily complied the first time around because they were starting from a relatively good economic position. The politicians kept assuring them it was all just for “two weeks” or maybe even a month. After all, when the lockdowns began, the economy was at very high levels of employment. The US was in the waning days of the boom phase of a boom-bust cycle. But it was nonetheless still in the boom phase. Since the spring lockdowns began, 40 million Americans have become unemployed. Twenty million of them are still unemployed, and more than 1.3 million Americans became newly unemployed over the past week. Tax revenue has also plummeted reflecting the downward spiral in Americans’ income.

The bankruptcies are now mounting. In recent weeks, just some of the companies that have declared bankruptcy are J.Crew, Gold’s Gym, Neiman Marcus, Hertz, GNC, and Chuck E. Cheese. Thousands of retail locations for these companies will be closed. Their staffs will be laid off.

The idea that everyone can just “work from home,” of course, has always been a fantasy of the well-off. The work-from-home myth is especially damaging for lower-income workers and for blacks and Hispanics. Moreover, if school closures remain, many parents who rely on government schools as a type of “free” day care will find themselves without schools as a resource.

So far, all of this has been cushioned by outlandish fiscal and monetary “stimulus” designed to bailout bankrupted industries, small businesses and households. Households have received stimulus checks as incomes dried up or were reduced.

The federal budget is likely to top ten trillion this year (well more than double last-year’s budget) as a result of literally trillions of new dollars being created out of thin air to finance the stimulus checks and bailouts.

If lockdowns are imposed again, expect even more “stimulus,” bringing the federal budget to 12 trillion, or maybe 14 trillion. There will be no end in sight.

But apparently-endless money printing can’t continue indefinitely. At some point the upward pressure on interest rates, and concerns over the value of the dollar, become so great that even Congress and the Fed fear another round of stimulus. If that comes this year, household finances will immediately collapse. More businesses will go under. Jobs will dry up. 30 percent of Americans already missed their house payments in June. Expect that to get a lot worse if lockdown mandates are tightened again.

And as economic  turmoil becomes worse expect more of what resulted during the lockdowns of March and April: more child abuse, more suicide, more drug overdoses. Expect more death from non-COVID causes as  “elective” medical care is banned by executive order. 

The New Lockdowns Will Be Longer

Also complicating the situation is the fact that if lockdowns are tightened now, the duration of the lockdowns will likely last well beyond the month or two of lockdowns initially promised. Hospitalizations for a wide variety of diseases (not just COVID-19) will only get worse as the northern hemisphere approaches flu season three months from now. At that point, the end of the 2020-21 flu season will still be a long way away.

If the current plan for the “experts” and the politicians is to impose a six- or eight-month lockdown until next summer, get ready for an economic depression of unprecedented proportions.

The lockdown advocates have always claimed the economy would survive relatively unscathed because the job losses and closures were just “temporary.” Their narrative claimed workers would only be furloughed for a couple of months and then the recovery would begin.

But what if they get their wish for an open-ended lockdown that continues from mid-summer through May of next year? After all, that is the reality we’re looking at if rising hospitalizations justify lockdowns. We’ll be looking at month after month of mounting unemployment.

Compliance Will Be a Problem

The heightened economic pain means lockdowns will be harder to enforce, and Americans now estimate their risk of severe illness to be much lower now than was the case during the first lockdown.

Back in March and April, many Americans didn’t know what to expect. The experts and politicians assured us we were all facing a truly apocalyptic scenario. Bodies would be piling up in the streets. Gurneys would be lining the sidewalks as patients died unattended. Americans were concerned: does this disease affect everyone equally? What is my risk level? Many people took a wait-and-see attitude.

But now that so much more is known than was the case in March, it is clear risk is hardly equal for everyone — 40 percent of deaths were in nursing homes —and it makes little sense to lock down an entire population to protect certain specific populations. States that never enacted lockdowns during the first round, for example, had fewer deaths per capita.

Since March, the CDC has repeatedly reduced its estimated fatality rate. Many Americans have also gradually become aware, for example, that in the US 40 percent of deaths attributed to COVID-19 occurred in nursing homes. Many now know that among known cases under age 50, the fatality rate is now estimated at well under 1 percent. The CDC estimates that the symptomatic case fatality rate for people younger than 50 is just 0.05 percent, compared to 1.3 percent for people 65 or older and 0.2 percent for 50-to-64-year-olds. Those are just the symptomatic cases. Many who get the disease show no symptoms at all.

Americans have realized the risk to most Americans is much lower than what is suggested by the over-the-top panic-inducing rhetoric repeatedly employed my media outlets and politicians. Moreover, for many people, COVID-19 news has already receded to the point of becoming background noise. Every day they are bombarded with dire warning of impending death and destruction. Warnings of this sort soon have a diminishing effect.

Just as Americans long ago made peace with the relatively high risks associated with highway travel, many Americans are likely to do the same with COVID-19. After all, the most dangerous thing most people do every day — by far — is get in a motor vehicle and drive. Yet few people seem to let the risk limit their daily activities. The more the dangers of COVID-19 become just another daily bullet point, the easier the warnings are to ignore.

Many will also be less likely to comply because of the obvious hypocrisy of government officials over June’s riots and protests. Medical personnel who condemned any sort of gathering — and especially anti-lockdown protests — suddenly decided mass gatherings were perfectly fine so long as the politics behind the protests was to the experts’ liking. People won’t forget that.

For those who refuse to comply, the politicians will send in the police to enforce their edicts. Police who refused to stop rioters will nonetheless arrest peaceful business owners. This will also be remembered. The resentment will build. The impoverishment will continue. Americans will be going into foreclosure. “Deaths of despair” will mount.

Politicians will insist it’s all “worth it” and “we’re all in this together.” The longer it goes on, the less the public will agree.

In a repeat of last Sunday’s gloomy open (which had fully reversed overnight with futures nice and green by morning), futures slumped after reopening at 6pm with two key catalysts emerging: i) coronavirus deaths around the world topped half a million and infections continued to mount in American states, coupled with ii) concerns about the growing advertiser boycott of Facebook.

S&P 500 futures opened below 3,000, just as they did last Sunday, sliding to 2,988, or 0.6% lower, alongside oil and the dollar, while gold rose. However, there was some comfort over the weekend from the latest Chinese “data” which showed local industrial production growth was +6.0% yoy in May compared with -4.3% yoy in April, the first positive year-over-year growth since the virus outbreak as downstream industries continued to see stronger profit growth compared with upstream industries, and overall profit margins widened in May (that said, by now we doubt anyone believes any Chinese reporting).

Offsetting this boost to sentiment were growing fears about Facebook’s revenue base as a growing number of advertisers have announced intentions to halt spending on social media, undermining the company’s sales outlook and putting its stock price under further pressure. A partial list of the companies that have said they’re curtailing ad spending on Facebook and its peers is shown below:

• Unilever
• Verizon
• Hershey’s
• Honda
• The North Face
• Ben & Jerry’s
• REI
• Patagonia
• Eddie Bauer
• Upwork
• Mozilla
• Magnolia Pictures
• Birchbox
• Dashlane
• TalkSpace
• LendingClub

Bloomberg writes that “as more brands publicize plans to join boycotts or otherwise rein in ad spending, Facebook shares remain under pressure. The stock tumbled 8.3% Friday after Unilever, one of the world’s largest advertisers, said it would halt spending on Facebook properties this year, eliminating $56 billion in market value and shaving the net worth of Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg by more than $7 billion. Shares closed at $216.08 Friday after reaching a record $242.24 the preceding Tuesday.”

While no single company can significantly dent growth at Facebook, which generated $17.7 billion in revenue last quarter alone, a rising tally adds to pressure on other brands to follow suit, and when combined with a pandemic-fueled economic slowdown, the threat to Facebook deepens.

“Given the amount of noise this is drawing, this will have significant impact to Facebook’s business,” Wedbush Securities analyst Bradley Gastwirth wrote in a research note. “Facebook needs to address this issue quickly and effectively in order to stop advertising exits from potentially spiraling out of control.”

Facebook aside, the continued emergence of the coronavirus in several US hotspots has been the dominant theme for short-term sentiment. As of this weekend, global confirmed cases have now topped 10mln worldwide with the death toll nearing 500,000. As such, Amplify Trading writes that “it remains critical to remain vigilant for further updates with the daily US case numbers… now a main feature of the daily calendar. Below is a snaphot of the total cases and deaths in the United States as of 28th June 2020 via the NYTimes.”

Amid the growing uncertainty from the rising number of covid infections and fears about Facebook’s tech dominance, last week’s risk-off stance could endure.

Of course, central banks are on their way: as Bloomberg notes, China’s central bank said it will implement new monetary tools to make sure liquidity reaches the real economy. The People’s Bank of China said it will increase the proportion of smaller company, credit and manufacturing loans, and continue to lower lending rates, while reiterating that it will keep the yuan stable.

Looking ahead, here are some of the key events and features to keep a close eye on, courtesy of Amplify Trading:

Payrolls & Powell

US Markets are closed on Friday due to the July 4th Independence Day holiday. As such, the latest US jobs report will be released on Thursday and I would make a mental note that the week as a whole will be somewhat front-loaded. Recent US economic indicators in the US have continued to surprise to the upside with the Citi Economic Surprise Index standing at a record high.

Expectations are that the US has added another 3.074mln jobs in the last month with unemployment expected to decrease once again to 12.3% from 13.3%.

However, I think it would be unwise to take these figures on face value as with an emerging second wave virus across several of the largest US states, in addition to the methodology quirks that have under reported the true level of unemployment, I think the data will do little to change markets current thinking.

Analysts at ING also note that average hourly earnings will fall sharply, but this is a statistical effect caused by lots of relatively low earning workers regaining employment, dragging the “average” level of hourly wages lower – therefore, it is meaningless.

On Tuesday, Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to testify again in Washington with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin about the stimulus and lending facilities to support the economy in the pandemic. Although unlikely to be a market moving event it may give some indication as to the timing and appetite towards further stimulus measures from the US government following Trump’s comments last week that he favoured sending Americans another stimulus check..

Meanwhile, Wednesday night sees the release of the latest FOMC minutes which will be srutinised for any insights as to the risks to the recovery and what methods the central bank may adopt if the situation were to change.

Is Trump already too far behind Biden?

This was the headline from the FT’s Big Read this weekend and comes in the context of Biden holding a 9.4 point lead in the Real Clear Politics Average poll of polls.

The FT article explains how Trump’s ratings have nosedived as he has been criticised over his handling of the lockdown and the reaction to the killing of George Floyd. This has led to the President hitting the road again holding rallies in Oklahoma and Arizona, the latter being a crucial political pawn given the recent rise in COVID cases and a key battleground in the upcoming election.

By comparison, Biden has been hunkering down and in a similar tactic in what we saw the former Labour leader Jermey Corbyn deploy against Theresa May during the initial Brexit negotiations, he appears content to let Trump self-harm until these political hot potatoes cool off. The problem comes when, at some point, Biden will need to emerge and confront the combative President and therein lies the problem in my mind.

The FT notes that Biden has struggled to excite the Obama coalition of the young and people of colour and that is right where Trump has already been targeting the democrat candidate in numerous jibes and memes.

Although people are fully aware of Trump’s diversion and deflection tactics on Twitter, I still believe that this direct and unfilered line of communication is as effective as ever for the US President.

For now, my view is that the wound of division post the financial crisis never truly healed and the pandemic has only further amplified the underlying inequalities that exist in American society today. Although this should be the catalyst for change, I think it will only polarise the ‘law-and-order’ narrative over the coming months, whether that be against the protestors or the Chinese virus. As a result, I still see Trump winning the election come November, despite what the polls indicate as of today.

I asked my Twitter followers this weekend what they thought – this was the result:

Growing challenges in China

The Chinese central bank said on Sunday that the country’s economic growth faces challenges from the global coronavirus pandemic, despite signs of improvement amid business re-openings. The cautious observation comes ahead of the official manufacturing PMI data for June scheduled for release on Tuesday, which is expected at 50.6.

Despite the headline figure reflecting an expansion of the manufacturing sector, many analysts have begun to question the strength of the recent bounce back in confidence as the rest of the world continues to grapple with rising COVID cases and the subsequent impact on orders for Chinese products.

Not only this, reports in the SCMP this weekend say that a county in northern China (Anxin) has been “sealed off” with its 400,000 residents placed under tight restrictions after more than a dozen Covid-19 cases were reported – all linked to the Xinfadi market cluster in Beijing.

CALENDAR HIGHLIGHTS via newsquawk

Monday

• Data: Japanese Retail Sales, EZ Consumer Confidence (Final), Economic Sentiment, German CPI (Prelim)
• Speakers: Fed’s Daly, Williams, BoE’s Bailey & Vlieghe, ECB’s Schnabel

Tuesday

• Data: Japanese Unemployment, Chinese NB Official Manufacturing PMI, UK GDP, EZ CPI (Flash), Canadian GDP, US Consumer Confidence
• Speakers: Fed’s Powell & US Treasury’s Mnuchin Testify, Williams & Brainard, BoE’s Haldane & Cunliffe, ECB’s de Guindos, RBA’s Debelle
• Supply: Germany

Wednesday

• Data: Japanese Tankan, Chinese Manufacturing PMI (Final), German Retail Sales, Unemployment & Manufacturing PMI, EZ, UK & US Manufacturing PMI (Final), US ADP & ISM Manufacturing
• Events: Riksbank Rate Decision, FOMC Minutes
• Speakers: ECB’s Panetta, BoE’s Haskel
• Supply: UK

Thursday

• Data: US Labour Market Report, Initial Jobless Claims & Factory Orders
• Speakers: ECB’s Mersch & Schnabel
• Supply: French & UK

Friday

• Data: Australian Retail Sales, Trade Balance, EZ & UK Services & Composite PMIs (Final)
• Speakers: ECB’s Knot
• Holiday: US Independence Day