US GDP Seen Rebounding 11.9% In Q3 By Atlanta Fed

One day after the BEA reported that US GDP crashed an annualized 32.9% in the second quarter, the biggest drop since the great depression…

… moments ago, the Atlanta Fed published its first GDPNow “nowcast” estimate for the third quarter, which is a relatively healthy 11.9%, and follows the regional Fed’s Q2 GDP estimate which was 0.8% above the official BEA print, at -32.1%.

The Atlanta Fed’s Q3 estimate is most pessimistic than the 18% Q3 GDP consensus estimate from 63 economists polled by Bloomberg, and is just above the lowe-end of the range although both of these numbers will be woefully inaccurate if more US states decide to follow through with another round of shutdowns.

It goes without saying that if Congress fails to roll over the expiring unemployment benefits into August- which as noted earlier now are instrumental in the record 25% of personal income that is funded by the US government…

… Q3 GDP will be another unmitigated disaster and far below any official estimates.