Dr. Gottlieb Explains Why US COVID Hot Spots May Have Reached Point Where Delta Surge Reversed

A few days ago, we shared some analysis from Goldman Sachs and other investment banks projecting that the surge across the US in newly diagnosed COVID cases attributed to the delta variant would soon fade, just as outbreaks in the UK, Continental Europe and India all have. They’ve been closely monitoring the situation because it’s now a key factor in their economic growth projections, and most expect delta will have a mild impact in heavily vaccinated Europe.

Now, Bloomberg has apparently caught on.

While hospitalizations and deaths are clearly higher in areas where vaccination rates are lower, rates are still well below their levels from just a few months ago. And although Dr. Anthony Fauci would have you believe that Delta might cause the end of the world as we know it, his isn’t the only view on the matter. Dr. Scott Gottlieb, a former director of the FDA, believes delta will peak within the next two to three weeks.

And after breaking the data down to the regional level, Bloomberg has apparently spotted some trends that suggest as Delta’s global conquest has been characterized by “hyperspeed spikes in infections that eased dramatically after about two months.”

The first US outbreaks that caught officials’ eye were in Missouri and Arkansas, and they both started in earnest around the end of May, per BBG.

They noted that the rest of the country will be keeping a close eye on both states (along with a handful of others, including California).

The rest of the US will be watching those states closely as infections spread. The cases are prompting authorities to reconsider masking and other public-health measures, but many state and local governments are doing so gingerly and only after outbreaks are well underway. In Florida’s Miami-Dade County, Mayor Daniella Levine Cava said Wednesday that she would require masks again at indoor county facilities such as libraries.

Bloomberg also cited the following tweet from Dr. Gottlieb where he explained how Rt, a virus’s effective reproductive number, plays into forecasts of the virus’s spread. The logic behind it is pretty simple: If Rt falls below 1, then the virus’s spread should start to slow.

Gottlieb cited data from covidestim, a project with contributors from Yale School of Public Health, Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health and Stanford Medicine, showing the Rt rate in the worst hit states is already trending toward 1. When the numbers did this in the UK, seen as being just a few weeks ahead of the US, cases quickly started falling off. 

Some of the states hardest hit by the Delta surge showing some indication that their epidemic waves could be starting to peak. https://t.co/gwGNlc544i pic.twitter.com/3M566nDLY6

— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) July 28, 2021

Figures: Effective Reproduction Number (Rt).

— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) July 28, 2021

Just some food for thought.