Month: July 2021

By Greg Miller, of FreightWaves,

When news first broke of the COVID lockdown in Wuhan, the initial prediction was: The virus will cripple the economy of China, which is the engine of global trade, and that will be terrible for the shipping business.

Eighteen months and 3.9 million deaths later, the pandemic has had the opposite effect. Ships are full and, ironically, the country where the outbreak began has seen the biggest and broadest economic upside.

Chinese exports are now much higher than they were before the outbreak, courtesy of pandemic-induced changes in consumer behavior and COVID-driven fiscal stimulus from the world’s governments. 

The only major economy to grow in 2020 was China’s. GDP growth continued in Q1 2021. Business is at an all-time high for Chinese liner operators, shipyards and container-equipment factories.

U.S. demand for Chinese exports is increasingly urgent as sales continue to offset inventory rebuilds. Trade has revved up in the opposite direction, as well: China is buying more American soybeans, crude oil, propane and natural gas.

Pandemic boosts Chinese trade

Nerijus Poskus, vice president of global ocean at Flexport, recently told American Shipper, “Back in 2020, if you’d asked 100 economists what would happen when COVID first hit China, all of them would have probably said that economies will go down, consumption will go down and prices for shipping will fall. Well, all of them would have been wrong.”

Very wrong: China’s export value in January-May averaged $247.5 billion per month, up 29% from January-May 2019, pre-COVID, according to the country’s customs data.

As more goods are going out, supporting container-shipping demand, more raw materials and commodities are coming in, employing tankers, bulkers and gas carriers. China’s import value averaged $206.8 billion per month in January-May, up 25% from the same period in 2019.

Turning trade into even more business

When demand for ocean transport surges, so too does demand for shipbuilding, container manufacturing and global liner operations. The U.S. has virtually no presence in these sectors. China is the world leader in the first two and a major force in the third.

As of Jan. 1, 2020, pre-COVID, Chinese shipyards had commercial orders totaling 29.8 million compensated gross tons (CGT), according to U.K.-based valuation and data provider VesselsValue. At that point, China — which was already the world’s largest shipbuilding nation — accounted for 38.7% of the global orderbook.

The Chinese yards’ orderbook was 26.9 million CGT as of Thursday, according to VesselsValue. While that is down from pre-COVID (orders dropped worldwide in Q1-Q3 2020 and partially rebounded thereafter), China’s share of the global orderbook is now 40.5%, even higher than it was before the pandemic.

China’s dominance is far more extreme in container-equipment manufacturing. Over 96% of all the world’s dry containers and 100% of reefer containers are manufactured in China. Factories produced 2.66 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of containers in the first five months of this year, according to data from U.K.-based consultancy Drewry.

“I would be surprised if the 5-million-TEU mark is not exceeded in 2021,” commented John Fossey, Drewry’s head of container equipment and leasing research. The previous record was 4.42 million TEUs in 2018. If 5 million TEUs were produced this year, it would represent a 61% increase compared to last year and a 77% increase versus 2019.

In the liner sector, China’s COSCO Group is the world’s fourth-largest container player, with a fleet capacity of 3 million TEUs, according to Alphaliner. Like all ocean carriers, COSCO is reaping historic profits from COVID-era consumer demand. The shipping division of COSCO posted a profit of $2.7 billion for Q1 2021, more than it earned in all of last year.

China is now the world’s second-largest shipowning nation, behind Japan, according to VesselsValue. During the pandemic, China passed Greece to move up from third to second place.

Containerized imports from China

The ships at anchor waiting to unload at California ports highlight the strength of demand for Chinese goods. 

The value of America’s goods imports from China averaged $37.7 billion per month in January-April, up 8% from the same period in 2019, pre-COVID.

To gauge U.S. importer exposure to China, American Shipper analyzed Census Bureau data on five categories of imports from China transported by container: computers and electronic products, electrical equipment and appliances, furniture and fixtures, apparel and accessories, and miscellaneous manufactured commodities.

The combined value of imports in these categories rose 10% in January-April versus the same period in 2019. The computer/electronics segment — the largest of the five categories by value — was up 10%, electrical equipment 17% and miscellaneous manufactured commodities 40%. Furniture was down 11% and apparel was down 29%.

Despite all the talk of supply chain diversification over the years, American sourcing remains very China-centric. In January-April, China’s average share of total U.S. import value of furniture was 37%, computers 35%, electrical equipment 33%, miscellaneous manufactured goods 33% and apparel 22%. 

U.S. importers reliant on Chinese sourcing face a new headache. The recent COVID outbreak hitting operations in the Chinese port of Yantian and surrounding ports in June will have a major impact on trade flows going forward. Yantian and surrounding ports handle about one-quarter of China’s containerized exports to America. 

Ocean carrier Maersk told customers that “both the extended duration of the disruption and the sheer number of sailings that had to omit calling Yantian” mean that it will take “weeks if not months to recover.”

“What should not be understated is the sheer magnitude of the task ahead as peak season volumes continue to ramp up,” warned Maersk.

US commodity exports to China recover

Amid the trade turmoil initiated by the Trump administration, China retaliated by curtailing purchases of American agricultural goods and energy commodities such as propane, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and crude oil. 

The good news is that China is buying more American exports again. 

Soybeans — China’s most important role as a buyer is in the soybean market. U.S. soybean exports to China collapsed in 2018 due to trade politics and the African Swine Flu’s impact on China’s pig population (soybeans are used to feed pigs).

Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows that Chinese buying recovered by 2020, when 54% of U.S. soybean exports went to China. Total U.S. exports jumped to a record 64.1 million metric tons last year. Chinese buying continues this year, with the country taking 47% of Q1 2021 U.S. export volumes. 

U.S. soybean exports to China have recently helped propel rates for dry bulk ships in the Panamax class (bulkers with capacity of 65,000-90,000 deadweight tons) to decade highs.

Propane — In the tanker markets, China is an important destination for American propane. The propane is transported aboard large 84,000-cubic-meter liquefied petroleum gas tankers and is used by China for residential consumption and as a feedstock for plastics manufacturing.

U.S. propane sales to China evaporated in 2019 during trade hostilities. But in full-year 2020 and Q1 2021, China came back to the market, taking 10% of U.S. seaborne propane exports, according to Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. 

LNG — China overtook Japan last year to become the world’s largest importer of LNG. China stopped buying U.S. LNG in 2019 amid trade tensions, but accounted for 9% of America’s LNG exports last year. In Q1 2021, 8% of U.S. exports went to China, according to EIA data. 

Crude oil — Chinese imports from America play a key role in demand for ships called very large crude carriers (VLCCs, tankers that carry 2 million barrels of oil). VLCC demand is measured in ton-miles: volume multiplied by distance. The sailing distance from the U.S. Gulf to China is more than double the distance from the Middle East to China. Thus, the more China imports from the U.S. instead of from the Middle East, the better for VLCC rates.

China accounted for just 5% of U.S. export volume deliveries in 2019, at the height of the trade war. Its share bounced back to 17% in 2020 and 13% in Q1 2021, according to EIA data.

Trade balance no better than pre-trade war

Overall, U.S. goods exports to China averaged $11.6 billion per month in January-April, up 38% from the same period in 2019. 

The U.S.-China goods trade balance (exports minus imports) averaged minus $26.1 billion in the first four months of this year — slightly better than in January-April 2019, pre-COVID, due to the higher U.S. exports.

As for the effectiveness of the Trump administration’s tariffs, which have not been reversed by President Joe Biden, the average goods trade balance was minus $25.5 billion in January-April 2016, before Donald Trump’s election. 

In the same period this year, the balance was 2% higher, in favor of Chinese exports to America.

It’s almost as if the entire ESG push has been one giant case of virtue signaling… 

Along those lines, Exxon has been forced to apologize this week after one of its lobbyists was caught on camera saying that a carbon tax the company has been pushing for years is “unlikely to happen”, according to Bloomberg.

The lobbyist was caught on video saying: “Nobody is going to propose a tax on all Americans. And the cynical side of me says, ‘Yeah we kind of know that.’ But it gives us a talking point. We can say well what is ExxonMobil for? Well we’re for a carbon tax.”

Exxon CEO Darren Woods came out and said the company was “deeply apologetic” about the comments after a Greenpeace investigator caught lobbyist Keith McCoy making the comments.

Woods said this week: “Comments made by the individuals in no way represent the company’s position on a variety of issues, including climate policy and our firm commitment that carbon pricing is important to addressing climate change.”

Woods continued: “We condemn the statements and are deeply apologetic for them, including comments regarding interactions with elected officials.”

“They are entirely inconsistent with the way we expect our people to conduct themselves. We were shocked by these interviews and stand by our commitments to working on finding solutions to climate change,” he concluded.

McCoy is also seen in the footage suggesting that Exxon had “joined shadow groups to work against some of the early efforts” of climate change. “There’s nothing illgeal about that,” he says on film. 

While Bloomberg wasn’t able to reach McCoy, a statement on his LinkedIn read: “I am deeply embarrassed by my comments and that I allowed myself to fall for Greenpeace’s deception. My statements clearly do not represent ExxonMobil’s positions on important public policy issues.”

By Adam Andrzejewski, of OpenTheBooks.com,

If the White House payroll is a leading indicator of the president’s commitment to expand government then taxpayers have a reason for concern. Projected four-year costs of Biden’s White House payroll could top $200 million. For comparison, inflation adjusted, the Trump administration spent $164.3 million (2017-2020) and the Obama administration spent $188.5 million (2009-2012).

On July 1st, the Biden administration released the annual Report to Congress on White House Office Personnel. President Biden hired czars, expensive “fellows,” “assistants,” and spent on a much larger First Lady (FLOTUS) staff.

The payroll report included the name, status, salary and position title of all 567 White House employees costing taxpayers $49.6 million. (Search Biden’s White House payroll and Trump’s four years posted at OpenTheBooks.com.)

Since January, the Biden administration has quickly staffed up. Here are some key findings from our auditors at OpenTheBooks.com:

• There are 190 more employees on White House staff under Biden than under Trump (377) and 80 more than under Obama (487) at this point in their respective presidencies.
• $9.6 million increase in payroll spending vs. the Trump FY2017 payroll. In 2017, the Trump White House spent $40 million for 377 employees, while the Biden payroll amounts to $49.6 million for 567 employees. All spending amounts are inflation adjusted.
• Hires include 320 female staffers ($28.9 million salaries) vs. 240 male staffers ($20.8 million salaries). In terms of top staffers — Special Assistants — there are 53 female ($6.3 million salaries) vs. 37 males ($4.4 million).
• Currently, there are 12 staffers dedicated – at least in part – to Dr. Jill Biden vs. five staffers who served Melania Trump in her first year (FY2017).
• Counts of the “Assistants to the President” – the most trusted advisors to the president – are the same (22) in for the Biden administration and the Trump and Obama administrations. This year, these advisors make $180,000.
• This year’s list of key advisors includes names such as Ron Klain (Chief of Staff), Susan Rice (Domestic Policy Council), Jennifer Psaki (Press Secretary), and Kate Bedingfield (Communications Director), Mike Donilon (Senior Advisor), and Steve Ricchetti (Counselor).
• In the Trump first-year, Steven Bannon, Kellyanne Conway, Omarosa Manigault, Reince Priebus, Sean Spicer and 17 others made salaries of $179,700. In Obama’s first-year, David Axelrod, Rahm Emanuel and twenty others held the title with top pay of $172,000.
• The most highly compensated White House Biden staffer? The top paid is Molly Groom ($185,656), Policy Advisor For Immigration, a crisis issue for the administration. The second highest paid is Elizabeth Hone ($183,164), Senior Policy Advisor For Broadband. The administration proposed $100 billion in government ownership of broadband.

In Trump’s administration (2017), Mark House, Senior Policy Advisor, had a salary of $187,500. In Obama’s Administration (2009), David Marcozzi earned $193,000 “on detail” from Health and Human Services.

FLOTUS Staff

Dr. Jill Biden has 12 staffers including press, communication, and advance trip directors; media coordinators and schedulers. There are senior advisors, and even a couple of social secretaries. Five of the employees also serve the president in some capacity.

In 2009, former First Lady Michelle Obama faced criticism for her twenty-four assistants, advisors, aides, and social secretaries. Laura Bush had a staff of eighteen. In 2017, Melania Trump, in her first year, had a staff of five employees.

These 12 White House employees serving First Lady Dr. Jill Biden (five also serve the president in some capacity) cost taxpayers $1.35 million and include:

• Julissa Reynoso Pantaleon, Chief of Staff to the First Lady and White House Gender Policy co-chair ($180,000);
• Elizabeth Alexander, Director of Communications for the First Lady ($155,000);
• Carlos Elizondo, Social Secretary ($155,000) and Deputy Social Secretary, Liz Hart ($80,000)
• Press Secretary, Michael LaRosa, $100,000

Special Initiative Czars

Starting in 2009, President Obama came under fire for hiring special initiative czars. From 2017-2020, we found no evidence of “czars” on Trump’s payroll. 

However, Biden has czar(ed) up – naming at least 21 czars to date, with plans to fill 55 positions. These include:  National Climate Advisor Regina McCarthy ($180,000) and a Special Envoy for Climate, John Kerry – who is listed in press accounts, but doesn’t appear in the payroll data. Others include Jeff Zients ($36,000), the COVID-19 czar.

Critics at Politico have already questioned, “How many czars does the Biden administration need?”

White House Leadership Development Fellows

Starting in 2015, President Obama instituted a new fellowship – a White House Leadership Development program with an initial class of sixteen. During the Trump years, the program was dormant.

On June 4th, Biden appointed 22 members to the fellowship program. None of these appear in the payroll disclosure.

Like most presidents, Joe Biden doesn’t donate his salary. Donald Trump was the first since John F. Kennedy to donate his pre-tax quarterly salary to government agencies.

Following tradition, Dr. Jill Biden isn’t paid as First Lady. However, she is the 1st First Lady to maintain an outside income – her government salary as a community college professor at Northern Virginia Community College.

Although the White House personnel budget is an infinitesimal part of the $4+ trillion federal budget, it could be a leading indicator of Biden’s commitment to expand the size, scope, and power of the federal government.

In a world where Wall Street admits that it increasingly gets its most precious commodity – information – from social networks such as Twitter, Reddit and Facebook…

… it got us thinking about the changing nature of information flow in finance and how it may be impacting markets.

Conveniently, in a recent note from DataTrek’s Nick Colas, the former SAC portfolio manager takes a big picture look at just this topic, writing that when he started covering stocks in 1991 back at Credit Suisse, there was no Internet, no smartphones, no “Big Data”, no quarterly earnings conference calls, and no real regulation around how companies disseminated potentially market-moving information. All those things exist today, and according to Colas, the fact that the world’s financial decision-makers are flooded with instant (and constant) information may well explain part of why US stocks trade at such premiums to prior cycles. But, as Colas also notes, more information can also make investors overconfident.

Below we excerpt from the DataTrek founder’s latest note about the changing nature of information as it relates to the investment process over the last 30 years.

Too Much Information, by Nicholas Colas

We’ll start in late 1991 when these words first came out of a CFO’s mouth: “We should do a conference call after the quarter.” The speaker was Jerry York, then Chrysler’s chief financial officer. The company had just done a “save the firm” equity issuance to fund production of the then-new Grand Cherokee.

He felt that the institutional buyers of that deal should hear directly from the management team right after Q4 earnings were made public. They had taken a big risk buying Chrysler, which at the time was essentially insolvent. Keeping the lines of communication open with this group of investors was important. After all, the company might need to tap them again if the US economy didn’t continue to rebound.

I was at that first call, which was a hybrid in-person/teleconference held at the old Sky Club on top of what was then the Pan Am building in New York City. Some big investors in the deal traveled to New York to attend, and others dialed in. It did what Jerry wanted. Investors got to ask their questions directly and also hear management’s take on the business.

As effective as that form of shareholder communications was, quarterly earnings conference calls only slowly caught on through the 1990s. For many years, analysts more commonly waited for earnings reports to come through on PR Newswire. We would then print those out on a dot matrix printer and call the company’s CFO or investor relations person. We’d then wait for a call back and ask our questions about the numbers. Sometimes it would be the same day, sometimes the next. And if the company didn’t like you, that return call would simply never come.

Other differences between 1991 and now, as far as the investment process goes:

• No Internet back then, at least as far as its utility to Wall Street. No Google, no Wikipedia, no “Big Data”.
• No smartphones. If you were on the road and wanted a price quote or the latest news, you called your trading desk.
• No email – analysts’ reports were printed and mailed/messengered to clients.
• No Fed press conferences after FOMC meetings. Only Fed Chair Alan Greenspan spoke on policy, and infrequently at that.
• No regulations requiring analysts to share their views with all clients at once.
• No regulations requiring that companies disseminate market-moving information broadly. Most just used their favorite Wall Street analysts to update investors on earnings guidance.

I think about all these differences every time I look at a 1990 – present history of the CBOE VIX Index. Has more, and more-widely available, information made US stocks less volatile? In theory, it should. Volatility is, first and foremost, a function of how much relevant fundamental information is embedded in stock prices.

Here’s that VIX history back to 1990, which shows that the period from 2012 to 2019 did see generally lower volatility than the prior 2 economic up cycles. There were other forces at work, certainly … A long expansion makes for more predictable corporate earnings, which should make for lower equity price volatility. But seeing a VIX that reliably traded below 19 (its long run average) for the better part of a decade is still notable. The truly “different” thing about this period versus the previous ones is the change in the quantity and speed of information flow.

What’s also striking about that chart is that volatility shocks (which always bring lower asset prices) still routinely occur despite the much greater amount of information available to markets and investors. Chalk that up to human nature. Prospect Theory says humans “feel/fear” loss about twice as much as equivalent gains. That asymmetry explains the old trader’s saying that “the market takes the stairs up, but the elevator down” when an unexpected event occurs.

Now, what does all this mean for current US equity market dynamics? Three thoughts:

1. Everything else equal, more complete information about company/macro fundamentals should make for higher equity valuations now relative to prior cycles. It’s hard to prove statistically that this is the case, but it makes intuitive sense to me.
2. More information now should also allow markets to reset more quickly after a shock than prior cycles. Imagine if we’d had the Pandemic Recession in pre-Internet 1990 instead of 2020. Would investors have as much confidence in a global economic recovery if they couldn’t see it forming through data from Google Trends, smartphone-enabled mobility tracking, and other 21st century sources of data? I doubt it.
3. Greater levels of available information can, however, lead to investor overconfidence.

We’ll close out with a cautionary tale about “too much information” that relates to that last point:

• Back in the 1970s, US researchers ran a study with 8 professional horse racing handicappers as their subjects.
• They had the subjects list all the horse-specific datapoints they found most useful in predicting the outcome of a race, ranked from most to least important.
• The handicappers received their top 10 data choices for the horses in an upcoming race and were asked to predict the winners.
• For the next race, they saw their top 20 choices and made predictions based on that now-larger base of information.
• Finally, they got their top 40 choices for relevant predictive data and forecast the outcome of the last race.

The surprising finding: while the handicappers’ confidence about their predictions increased with larger amounts of information, their accuracy in picking winners did not.

The lesson, profoundly relevant to investing: use the wealth of information available in a 21st century world with caution. More is not always better.

After a very brief break in 2020 due to Covid, it looks at though it is back to fun in the sun, ritzy gatherings and massive parties by the super rich in the Hamptons this summer.

The elites of the Hamptons – people like Mike Novogratz, Larry Gagosian and Kathy Rayner – are all back to hosting their normal gatherings this summer as life returns back to somewhat of a post-Covid normal, according to Bloomberg.

And with the super rich comes super rich topics of discussion. At Novogratz’s recent Sunday gospel brunch, Goldman Sachs’s Ashok Varadhan said he was reaching academic papers on cryptocurrency while music executive Jason Flom spoke to Novogratz about his podcast and his new 1959 Corvette.

And it looks like the summer is just getting started. Joey Wolffer, of the Sagaponack winery family, commented: “I haven’t been out to a party in a year-and-a-half, and I had events five nights in a row last week. I came home one night and my kids had epic meltdowns. We didn’t ease into this at all.”

Steve Israel, former New York Democratic Congressman, noted that political fundraising was also helping people get together: “Ordinarily it would be quieter in an off-year, but political fundraising is coming back with a vengeance.”

He said most Democrats in the Hamptons this summer aren’t complaining about President Biden’s tax increases: “Virtually all of them believe that wealth inequity is a major economic problem that has to be addressed. They also realize that if wealth inequality continues, at some point there will be pitchforks at the hedgerows.”

All that means is they’re literally OK with throwing money at the problem of people wanting to riot to make it go away – it just happens to be called paying more in taxes, in this case.

Regardless, there is some preparation being made for the increases. Leonard Ackerman, an East Hampton lawyer, said: “The most anxiety right now is over Biden’s tax plan, because if you’re not going to have a stepped-up basis, people who have homes here and sell them, upon someone passing, they’re going to get whacked twice, first on capital gains doubled, and on estate taxes. A substantial amount of equity built up over the years is going to get wiped out. So there’s potential for a lot of older homes to come on the market.”

Up in the air is how many people partying in the Hamptons this summer will wind up back in NYC. One couple at Novogratz’s brunch said they pulled their kids out of private school and put them into public school in Amagansett, which they love. Another family matriarch said she was stayin in the Hamptons year-round while her husband commuted to the city for school with the kids. 

On the agenda for the rest of the summer are numerous benefits, including one that will be held on Kathy Rayner’s estate. Guests can take in her carefully prepared gardens while sipping on home-made margaritas and home-grown strawberries. 

Andrea Grover, the head of Guild Hall, concluded: “Having that cocktail party at her house was the top. She’s the consummate hostess who really attends to every detail of a party. The napkins were linen embroidered with elephants and golden thread.”

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

On Friday, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has approved a new military command structure that will be based out of the US embassy in Kabul, which will oversee Afghanistan operations after most US combat troops leave the country.

The new embassy-based military office, dubbed Forces Afghanistan-Forward, will be headed by Navy Rear Admiral Peter Vasely. The US has tried to portray its plans to keep troops at its embassy in Kabul as only for security purposes. But Pentagon spokesman John Kirby described what sort of operations the new office will oversee, which goes beyond guarding the embassy.

“That presence will remain focused on four things over the course of the coming period. One, protecting our diplomatic presence in the country. Two, supporting security requirements at Hamid Karzai International Airport. Three, continued advice and assistance to Afghan National Defense and Security Forces as appropriate. And four, supporting our counterterrorism efforts,” Kirby said.

Kirby said the embassy office would be supported by another Afghanistan office that will be established in Qatar. Under the plan, the authority to bomb Afghanistan will be transferred from the top US commander in the country, Gen. Scott Miller, to Gen. Frank McKenzie, the head of US Central Command. Airstrikes in Afghanistan will be carried out by warplanes based outside of the country, mostly in the Gulf region, what the Pentagon has dubbed “over the horizon capability.”

Although nothing has been confirmed, reports say the US plans to leave 650 troops at the embassy. The US embassy in Kabul is a sprawling 36-acre compound and has the room to host thousands of people. That means besides troops, there could also be CIA or civilian contractors that don’t need to have a declared presence.

The US might also leave some troops to help Turkey control the Hamid Karzai International Airport, which is also in Kabul. The US sees control of the airport as key to its post-withdrawal plans, and Washington and Ankara are working out an agreement that would keep the approximately 500 Turkish troops at the airport that are currently guarding it.

U.S. forces pulling out of a 20-year war and President Biden doesn’t want to answer questions about Afghanistan because it’s the #FourthOfJulyWeekend https://t.co/RJvGrTBJ2l

— James LaPorta (@JimLaPorta) July 2, 2021

Recent media reports said the bulk of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan would be completed by July 4th. But both the Pentagon and the White House said on Friday the drawdown would probably be done by the end of August.

“We currently expect it to be completed by the end of August. So, as you know, the president decided to withdraw remaining US troops from Afghanistan and finally end the US war there after 20 years,” White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki told reporters on Friday.

While Psaki said President Biden wants to remove all “remaining troops,” it’s clear based on the fact that Austin approved a new military command for Afghanistan that troops will stay. The plan will fuel more violence since the Taliban will view it as a clear violation of the Doha agreement that called for all foreign forces to leave Afghanistan.

A Bloomberg report details how artificial intelligence systems employed by Amazon have hired and fired contract drivers. 

Called “Flex,” Amazon uses AI to determine how many drivers are needed for deliveries. The app, installed on drivers’ smartphones, measures whether they delivered packages on time and followed customers’ special requests. 

If a driver misses the mark, they are subjected to an automatic firing. 

That’s exactly what happened to Stephen Normandin, 63, an Army veteran who Flex recently fired. He said algorithms tracked his every move as he delivered packages around the Phoenix Metropolitan Area. 

Normandin said Amazon unfairly punished him for things way beyond his control – such as locked apartment complexes. He said every job he’s “given 110%,” but the algorithm failed to see external factors that may affect deliveries. 

“This really upset me because we’re talking about my reputation. They say I didn’t do the job when I know damn well I did,” he said. 

At the world’s largest e-commerce retailer, algorithms are the boss, hiring and firing and monitoring hundreds of thousands of workers with hardly any human oversight. 

Flex began operations in 2015 as a way for Amazon to get its packages out the same day to regional customers. Here’s more from Bloomberg: 

But the moment they sign on, Flex drivers discover algorithms are monitoring their every move. Did they get to the delivery station when they said they would? Did they complete their route in the prescribed window? Did they leave a package in full view of porch pirates instead of hidden behind a planter as requested? Amazon algorithms scan the gusher of incoming data for performance patterns and decide which drivers get more routes and which are deactivated. Human feedback is rare. Drivers occasionally receive automated emails, but mostly they’re left to obsess about their ratings, which include four categories: Fantastic, Great, Fair, or At Risk. -Bloomberg 

Bloomberg interviewed 15 Flex drivers who allege a robot wrongfully terminated them. They say there’s no way to dispute their firing as Flex is entirely automated. One can appeal through arbitration, but that costs $200. Amazon knows delegating human resource work to machines is cheaper and more efficient. 

But many of these drivers say the algorithms don’t factor in real-world problems for failing to deliver a package on time, such as traffic, locked buildings, vehicle troubles, among other things. An Amazon spokesperson told Bloomberg:

“We have invested heavily in technology and resources to provide drivers visibility into their standing and eligibility to continue delivering and investigate all driver appeals.”

Being hired and fired by AI is the new dystopic reality the working-poor must face. Amazon has a huge PR problem in treating their workers, mostly exposed during the virus pandemic. Sooner or later, Amazon will run out of workers as its high churn rate has alarmed executives. 

But don’t worry, automated delivery vans and warehouses are coming and will eventually displace humans working for the company. later on this decade. 

Authored by Cara Ding via The Epoch Times,

As Chicago aldermen took turns questioning Police Superintendent David Brown about an alarming crime wave on Friday, Brown said police officers had done their utmost and that the blame should be directed at the court system which had sent too many violent offenders back on the street.

About 20 aldermen requested the special city council meeting with Brown following two violent weekends that saw 24 people killed and 114 injured in Chicago. The day before the meeting, a 1-month-old baby and a 9-year-old girl were both shot in the head; another 8-year-old girl was shot in the arm.

“This is happening because there is too much advocacy for violent offenders and too little consequences for their behaviors in the courts,” Brown told the aldermen at the meeting.

Brown highlighted the growing number of violent suspects sent back into the community before trials by Cook County judges on the electronic monitoring system, a GPS-style tracking device attached on suspects’ ankles for monitoring whereabouts.

He cited a Chicago Tribune analysis which found over 90 suspects charged with murder were out on electronic monitoring by mid-May; whereas four years ago, that number was about 30. And about 570 suspects charged with aggravated unlawful use of a weapon were out on electronic monitoring by the same time; four years ago, that number was about 180. In total, violent suspects on electronic monitoring have bloomed from hundreds to thousands this year.

According to Brown, some of these suspects soon committed violent crimes again, including murder. Last month, Dominique Johnson, while out on electronic monitoring, killed his girlfriend and then committed suicide on the South Side of Chicago. In March, Dakari Davis, while out on electronic monitoring, shot at a 45-year-old man twice in an attempted carjacking.

Alderman Byron Lopez repudiated Brown’s reasoning, citing Loyola University research that suggests pretrial releases have not significantly increased crime following a 2017 Cook County felony bail reform.

The research collects data up until late 2019 and does not account for the pandemic period when courts drastically increased jail releases.

“I would ask those researchers to move over to the South and West Side of Chicago and come back with their conclusions. Just one night,” Brown said. South and West Side bear the brunt of shootings in the city.

“When you say ‘a few people’ recommitted crimes [while out on electronic monitoring], to the victims, that’s everything,” Brown said. “‘A few people’ are problematic in our neighborhood. ‘A few people’ committed a murder-suicide this month. ‘A few people’ stabbed someone to death this month. That ‘few people,’ for the victims, is everything.”

The special council meeting took place right before the Fourth of July weekend, traditionally one of the most violent weekends for Chicago. Last year, 17 were killed and 63 others were injured over the weekend.

Chicago Police Department (CPD) Chief of Patrol Brian McDermott also briefed aldermen on the deployment plans for the Fourth of July weekend and the rest of summer. He said the CPD will be laser-focused on the fifteen most violent neighborhoods on the South and West Side of Chicago. CPD will also work with other governmental agencies and community organizations to collectively combat the crime.

As of July 2, 364 people were murdered and 1,654 injured this year in Chicago, largely due to gunshots. This year’s record almost matches that of 2020, the pandemic year that saw sharp increases in shootings in the city.

Months after we discussed the “unprecedented demand” for Recreational Vehicles, which we said was on pace for a blowout 2021, RV sales continue to soar to record highs. Over the past year, many Americans have rediscovered national parks, small towns, and rural communities that are RV friendly instead of traveling on planes to resort towns packed with people. The virus pandemic fundamentally changed how Americans travel, and the RV lifestyle is one of the hottest trends this year that will likely roll into 2022. 

“The key driver here appears to be a more diverse demographic and an influx of first-time buyers seeking safe, socially-distanced and family-oriented activities, with the RV lifestyle checking all the boxes. While this has prompted investor concerns regarding the sustainability of this demand as consumers return to their pre-pandemic lifestyles, we believe the expansion of this addressable market for RVs is a long-term positive for the industry,” analysts from financial firm Raymond James wrote in a note to clients. 

“As such, our base case is that the industry will see stabilization in 2022, with retail flat to down modestly, followed by a resumption of slow and steady demand closer to the longer-term average beginning in 2023,” the note added. 

According to the RV Industry Association’s May 2021 survey of manufacturers, a total of 49,241 RVs were shipped to dealers, which was the best May wholesale shipment on record. 

May 2021 shipments jumped 75.9% compared to the 27,999 units shipped during May 2020. 

The RV boom is likely to remain through this year into next. More Americans than ever are rediscovering national parks and rural communities, and the joy of being with their families in a safe and controlled environment. 

Demographically, demand for RVs is coming from baby boomers and millennials, which may be another reason why demand will stay elevated. 

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

The Canadian government has announced this it is expanding ‘Pride Month’ for the entire summer and calling it ‘Pride Season’.

Yes, really.

A post on the official government ‘Canadian heritage’ website reveals the change, meaning that LGBT events and narratives will be promoted every year from June until the end of September.

“In Canada, local Pride events span over the course of several months,” states the website.

“Pride Season is a unifying term that refers to the period between June and September when LGBTQ2 communities and allies come together at different times throughout the summer to spotlight the resilience, talent, and contributions of LGBTQ2 communities in many Canadian cities.”

Since gay rights have already been achieved in every major western country on the planet, critics (including gay conservatives) are becoming increasingly skeptical over the true agenda behind ‘Pride Month’.

It appears to have been completely hijacked by a combination of woke corporations pushing LGBT rhetoric for free advertising and demented fringe activists who are at war with language and biological sexuality.

Concerns over the increasing degeneracy of gay pride marches and children being exposed to sexualized performances and behavior have intensified in recent years.

Biological men who identify as ‘transgender’ have also exploited mainstream acceptance of the movement to force their way into female spaces.

As we highlighted this week, the problems caused by that were again evident when a biological male claiming to be transgender entered the female area of Wi Spa in Los Angeles and flashed his genitals to women and little girls.

Apparently, the Canadian government is perfectly happy with these developments and wants to expand them over an entire season.

*  *  *

Brand new merch now available! Get it at https://www.pjwshop.com/

In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. I need you to sign up for my free newsletter here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown. Also, I urgently need your financial support here.