Scientists Expect Omicron Wave Will Peak In January

African countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo are struggling with an influx of hospitalizations as the omicron-driven 4th wave of the global pandemic environment hammers the country, which boasts one of the world’s lowest vaccination rates. But Congo isn’t alone; over the weekend, American media reported that, after nearly two years of seeing surprisingly low COVID levels, sub-Saharan Africa is finally seeing a big enough wave of infections to pose a serious threat to its health-care system.

Experts in the US are projecting that the latest COVID wave will worsen before it gets better, according to the following chart from Fundstrat, which features projections and data from the CDC as well as various state-level public health departments.

As it shows, the peak should arrive around Jan. 9, with the number of new daily cases declining swiftly after that, tumbling to just under 40K new cases/day by Feb. 9.

Researchers at a university in Texas estimated that the peak of the omicron wave would likely land somewhere between Jan. 13 and Feb. 3, according to CNBC.

Last year’s peak arrived on Jan. 11, according to data from Johns Hopkins.

And the number of deaths peaked on Jan. 13.

Even as hospitals across the US see the number of available beds fill up, deaths remain far lower than last year, a clear sign that Americans’ levels of ‘herd immunity’ (a concept we haven’t heard much about lately ever since scientists declared that COVID is likely now an endemic disease) have continued to improve, despite the virus’s shifting nature.