Conference Board Confidence Slides In January As ‘Hope’ Fades

After an unexpected rebound for the last three months, The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence survey was expected to weaken in January amid surging cases of Omicron and higher-and-higher consumer prices. Analysts were right in direction – January Conf Board fell from 115.2 (revised lower) to 113.8, but that was notably above the 111.2 expectations.

In June 2021, The Conf Board confidence was almost back to pre-COVID-lockdown levels (driven by an explosive surge in ‘hope’), but this time expectations are sliding. The Conference Board’s expectations index fell from six-month high to 90.8, while the gauge of current conditions unexpectedly surged higher to 148.2 – its highest since Aug 2021.

Source: Bloomberg

For some reason, the respondents to The Conference Board seem far more optimistic than the respondents to The University of Michigan‘s survey? It wouldn’t be the first time the Conf Board completely decoupled only to crash back to reality…

Source: Bloomberg

The share of consumers who said jobs were “plentiful” relative to “hard to get” fell slightly in January, but continues to hover very close to its record highs in 2000…

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, and perhaps most importantly, inflation expectations slipped lower in January, but still hover near 13-year highs at 6.8%…

Source: Bloomberg

So Powell and his pals face weakening sentiment but worrisome inflation.