Tesla Reports 310,048 Deliveries For Q1 2022, Model 3 Deliveries Slip Sequentially

Tesla reported Q1 2022 delivery figures this weekend, posting a record 310,048 deliveries for the first quarter. The results were posted on Saturday and slightly exceeded expectations, which stood at an average of 309,158 deliveries, according to Bloomberg.

Tesla said the record was “despite ongoing supply chain challenges and factory shutdowns”. 

The share of Model S/X of total global vehicles continues to wane at 14,724 deliveries for the quarter. This represented 4.7% of all total deliveries.

Model 3 deliveries dropped slightly from the prior quarter, as Model S/X took up slightly more of the company’s total deliveries.

Recall, to end 2021, Tesla reported a record quarter of over 308,000 vehicles. 

For 2021, the automaker delivered “over 936,000” vehicles. Those numbers were up about 87% from the year prior, according to Bloomberg. The report also reminded that Tesla has said “repeatedly it expects 50% annual increases in deliveries over a multi-year period”.

For Q1 2022 – that was not yet the case. Deliveries were up less than 50% from Q1 2021’s total of 182,780.

Recall, in March we noted that GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson had said that Tesla’s Q1 2022 delivery estimates “may need to be revised lower”. Earlier in the month, we reported that Tesla officially sold 56,515 Chinese made vehicles in February, according to data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). 

Jonson had called into question the distribution of how the China-made vehicles were sold in a note to clients in early March: 

“In short, in the opposite of what many TSLA pundits expected to occur, an increasingly larger portion of TSLA’s made-in-China cars are being exported to global markets, calling into question both: (a) the viability of TSLA’s demand inside of China, and (b) TSLA’s gross margins later this year given Germany is the most expensive place in the World to mass produce automobiles.”

He also noted the impact of rising nickel prices on the auto manufacturer, stating that based on his analysis and checks with traders and EV experts in London/Shanghai, that current nickel prices “equate to ~$998.97/car in added costs for TSLA”.

But the nickel theory has apparently been debunked, thanks to a little known “secret deal” that Tesla reportedly has with miner Vale for supply of nickel that we wrote about just days ago. 

But Johnson’s assertions of Tesla’s Q1 2022 numbers were pretty close. He stated in March that he expected a material revision lower in first quarter 2022 production estimates. Johnson said that estimates were too high by “at least 12k to 20k vehicles”, and he put Tesla’s Q1 2022 delivery number at an estimate of 304k to 312k.