Dollar May Snap Lower Immediately After CPI Data

By Nour Al Ali, Bloomberg Markets LIve commentator and reporter

Watch out for a non-textbook surprise in the dollar just after U.S. inflation data hits. In the past 12 months, CPI has mostly come in hot — yet the BBDXY has fallen more often than not. That probably runs counter to the belief that the U.S. currency should rise on a high reading as it steers the Fed toward faster rate hikes.

The one time CPI surprised on the downside in January, the dollar fell 0.2% in the first thirty minutes after the data. Here’s a breakdown of the numbers:

Speaking of the dollar, where will the pound head against it next? The UK is the theme of this week’s MLIV Pulse survey. Check back in next Monday, May 16, to see the results and best ideas. Participation takes one minute and is anonymous, so please click here to get involved.